Forum menu
This may well turn out to be a beneficial thing for Venezuela in some ways. Which ways and how long lasting I could not say with any certainty beyond a dictator has gone. Hope the new boss doesn't turn out to be "same as the old boss".
For the rest of us, Europe in particular Trump may well have given Putin a green light. If I was in Taiwan I would be nervous too
I wonder who trump has in mind for the next Venezuelan president?
obviously he'd want someone he can trust who has a good understanding of both corruption and the cocaine trade
It appears that nobody bothered to ask the oil companies if they actually fancy the idea of investing billions and billions of dollars in an unstable country on the back of an enforced regime change
Not to mention that oil prices are currently low, which means that more oil on the market will hurt places most where oil extraction is expensive ie. Texas, and that in any case Venezuelan crude is ‘heavy’ oil that is expensive to process?
It appears that nobody bothered to ask the oil companies if they actually fancy the idea of investing billions and billions of dollars in an unstable country on the back of an enforced regime change
Not to mention that oil prices are currently low, which means that more oil on the market will hurt places most where oil extraction is expensive ie. Texas, and that in any case Venezuelan crude is ‘heavy’ oil that is expensive to process?
The US imports heavy crude because you can't produce some fuels without it.
40% of oil refined in the US is imported heavy grades.
I'd think that a deal has been made that will make Venezuela stable for US business enforced by the government, less the Maduros.
Trump has made it clear he intends taking back the oil Venezuela stole from the USA. Apparently the stolen oil is in the ground in Venezuela.
So, it's pretty safe to assume any deal Venezuela government signs regarding splitting profits on this stolen USA oil would have to reflect who actually owns the oil (USA).
It's hard to imagine Venezuelan citizens being happy once they realise USA are intending to rob them exactly the same as Maduro did.
3 countries have whopping great amounts of just the exact same type the
US refineries are set up to process crude oil.
Canada - Best not
Russia - Best not
Venezuela - Hmmm
It's not to say the majority of the Venezuelan people wont benefit economically, but the reasons for the entire thing are horrifying. Purely about making Trump and did donors/sponsors/friends billions of Dollars.
Yes, always best not to find out exactly how the Canadians inspired the Geneva Conventions.
@timba Is it really going to be better to import it from Venezuela (which is going to cost a lot in terms of getting it out of the ground) or just carry on importing from Canada while facilitating the Albertan government to continue to annoy Ottawa?
Ukraine are all over my Facebook saying how happy they are about this. Are they holding their noses and sucking up to trump or is there another reason?
Venezuela is in the Russia / Iran / (formerly) Syria camp, so a touch of schadenfreude is to be expected.
Presumably there's an element of trying to suggest to Trump that attacking Maduro is consistent with fighting Putin (as opposed to totally hypocritical), and what a great genius Trump is. Also suggesting that Trump could be knock off Putin just as easily as Maduro - a long shot but with your back to the wall you may as well take it.
If Trump really did attack Iran in the same way as Venezuela, it would help Ukraine, as the supply chain for some of the Shahid drones would be disrupted...but apparently Russia is making a lot of those drones domestically now, so it's not quite an instant hammer blow. It would be bad for the international rules based order but that's probably a luxury that Ukraine can't afford to worry about.
This may well turn out to be a beneficial thing for Venezuela in some ways. Which ways and how long lasting I could not say with any certainty beyond a dictator has gone.
I hope you're right. This is not an attack/disagreement but as a historical/philosophical exercise: are there any examples where a Bad Guy was illegally/naughtily deposed by a foreign power, and it all got better afterwards?
Another theory about the invasion is that Venezuela is the last real supporter Cuba has, so it will hasten regime collapse there. Marco Rubio is a Cuban American.
are there any examples where a Bad Guy was illegally/naughtily deposed by a foreign power, and it all got better afterwards?
To answer my own question a bit: Romania, Baltic States, Egypt, Portugal and Spain don't count because the Bad Guy(s) were overthrown or exited by domestic forces.
Iraq, Iran (1953), Libya, Afghanistan, Zaire etc were all disasters or, at any rate, things didn't improve much fkr ordinary people afterward. I hear Iraq is doing a lot better these days but that's only after 20 years and being semi-occupied by Iran.
So: does Panama count? Even discounting a bit of the boosterism, it seems like things got a bit better after Noriega was captured by the US, despite the dubious legality. I don't know much about Panama so may be missing some context.
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1992-06-15-mn-316-story.html
Its very early days yet but what's interesting ( but maybe not surprising) is that the Americans dont seem to want to change the regime, both Machado (the Nobel winner) and Gonzales (the opposition leader currently holed up in Spain) have been left hanging and Trump seems happy to leave Maduro's repressive regime in place with his VP nominally in charge (as long as she toes the line)
issues with that are
1) I get the impression that the Americans dont really have much of a plan for what to do next, which has historically never worked out well
2) Without their Cuban operatives/enforcers can the present government maintain control, media etc is very tightly regulated.
3) The Venezuelan populace will be expecting to see an improvement in their situation pretty rapidly, as i understand it the opposition is united only by their opposition to Maduro - the potential for disruption seems high.
Can't figure out why the DEA felt the need to put a Feathers McGraw Knitted Hat on Maduro.
the Americans dont really have much of a plan for what to do next, which has historically never worked out well
In Iraq, the US government bought into totally unrealistic invasion and reconstruction plans prepared by dubious emigre groups. Perhaps the lesson the Trump Administration has taken from Iraq is "don't bother with the planning...."
are there any examples where a Bad Guy was illegally/naughtily deposed by a foreign power, and it all got better afterwards?
Edward VIII getting deposed by that American woman was for the better.
So: does Panama count? Even discounting a bit of the boosterism, it seems like things got a bit better after Noriega was captured by the US, despite the dubious legality. I don't know much about Panama so may be missing some context.
They may have eventually got pissed off with Noriega, but US support was in large part why Noriega remained in power for so long. He was on the CIA payroll for decades. Initially when George Bush was its head, but later when he was vice president and right the way into Reagan's presidency. They turned a blind eye to his gun and drug running and support for Cuba, because he supported or facilitated US support for pro-US elements in neighbouring countries.
This is just the latest action in a very long history of US interference in the governance of South American countries. Trump might be a bit more blatant about it, but it's nothing new.
The "Real Dictators" podcast on BBC sounds did an excellent series on Noriega. They've also covered Pinochet, Castro, Videla and Papa Doc Duvalier. All worth a listen.
What the last 12mths has told us is that any plan by Trump etc will not be well thought out anticipating any unexpected problems.
He will have some simple plan in his head, those around him will agree, and it will get actioned. His saving factor in the various bombings of various groups and the kidnapping of Maduro has been the competency of the US military.. but reminds yourself how Hegseth txt plans of one such bombing raid and the Iran nuclear facility bombing was later found to have achieved very little.
Its expected to hear Trump etc say how it's all going to work out in these early days, but fall to pieces in the not too distant future.
An important factor I'm trying to gauge is how the MAGA are reacting to this. MTG has come out against it .. also, whilst USA have invaded other countries such as Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan; it’s now doing so against a large country, without other countries backing.
My guess is that they'll allow the current regime to continue its grift so long as a) American companies get to do most of the oil work, b) they don't let China get too close to anything. By 'run' they mean, Venezuela will be a puppet state that's mostly allowed to do it's own thing interally, but has no real agency. It's probably not a terrible deal for the incumbents as they get to keep their golden toilets or whatever.
Of course the locals might not be too thrilled, the regime was unpopular anyway, and then adding it being a US puppet will compound things. Not sure how much they'll be able to do, assuming the miliary gets its cut of the grift.
I don't much buy into the theory that shadow cubans will bring the whole thing down.
- Can't figure out why the DEA felt the need to put a Feathers McGraw Knitted Hat on Maduro.
he looks surprisingly chipper considering it all
It looks like the VP is happy to deal with America, whether they will lift the repression of the populace, remains to be seen and Im sure Trump and co couldn't care less and you can see why Machado has been left out in the cold by the orange manbaby!
https://bsky.app/profile/ericumansky.bsky.social/post/3mbnh6bn4v22v
Yes, always best not to find out exactly how the Canadians inspired the Geneva Conventions.
@timba Is it really going to be better to import it from Venezuela (which is going to cost a lot in terms of getting it out of the ground) or just carry on importing from Canada while facilitating the Albertan government to continue to annoy Ottawa?
The capacity already exists. Pricewise, Venezuela is still officially under US sanctions so its oil is sold cheaply
Chevron is the only sizeable US company still producing oil in Venezuela and under President Biden it produced about 240,000 barrels per day (bpd).
Under President Trump this was reduced to 150,000bpd with the restriction of no payment being made to the Venezuelan government
Venezuela currently produces up to 1mn bpd (921,000bpd in November) and it's estimated that this could rise by around 50% in only two years with 3-4mn bpd achievable within a decade.
Distance-wise a quick AI guesstimate says that the distance to the refineries in Texas is pretty similar with Canada 200 miles closer, but either journey is in excess of 2000 miles
I couldn't tell you whether this is any kind of solution to US heavy crude imports because Venezuelan crude is "sour" and needs work (and $$$) to get the sulphur content down, but the potential is certainly there.
"Chevron is the only American major currently operating in Venezuela's oil fields that produce heavy crude used by U.S. Gulf Coast and other refineries. Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips, among others, had storied histories in the country after their projects were nationalized nearly two decades ago by former President Hugo Chavez. The American Petroleum Institute, the largest U.S. oil trade group, said on Saturday it was monitoring the emerging situation."
""Exxon, Conoco and Chevron, the three of them are not going to be worried about investing in heavy oil, given that it's very much needed in the United States and that they have less focus on decarbonization," Monaldi said. European companies may be more hesitant to invest in the prolific Orinoco Belt, he added."
"Conoco has been seeking billions for the takeover of three oil projects nearly two decades ago. Exxon was involved in lengthy arbitration cases against Venezuela after it exited the country in 2007."
"Chevron, which exports around 150,000 bpd of crude from Venezuela to the U.S. Gulf Coast, has had to carefully maneuver with the Trump administration in an effort to maintain its presence in the country in recent years...allowed it to resume limited operations and swap oil as long as no money from oil proceeds could be paid to the Maduro administration."
"Top oilfield service companies SLB*, Baker Hughes, Halliburton and Weatherford did not immediately respond to requests for comment, but their services would be essential to produce any meaningful increase in Venezuela's heavy crude."
"Venezuela, which has the largest oil reserves in the world, exported around 921,000 barrels per day (bpd) in November."
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trump-says-us-oil-companies-will-spend-billions-venezuela-2026-01-03/
*SLB is still operating in a grey area of US sanctions within Russia.
Documents Show Houston Oil Giant SLB Aiding Russian Oil Production Despite US Sanctions
“Under the Trump administration, tighter scrutiny of SLB is unlikely largely because of changes in enforcement priorities, business lobbying and tolerance for ambiguity in sanctions compliance,” Treston Wheat, chief geopolitical officer at the consultancy Insight Forward, told me in an interview. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/67080
PS, neighbouring countries that also have a US oil presence, e.g. Guyana (Exxon-Mobil), will be sitting up, taking notice and ensuring stability for US concerns
An important factor I'm trying to gauge is how the MAGA are reacting to this.
Internet suggesting MAGA isn’t impressed given that one of the things he ran on was stopping an isolationist America getting involved in overseas wars.
Re Maduro, will the courts overlook the fact that he was kidnapped in an illegal invasion? Cases can be thrown out for lesser reasons!
Re Maduro, will the courts overlook the fact that he was kidnapped in an illegal invasion? Cases can be thrown out for lesser reasons!
I didn't think that a President could be tried in the US 🤔
Trump undoubtedly hasnt worried about the details of getting the oil out, it will take years and require $bns? in investment to get it up and running, with oil prices low atm incentive won't be there for oil companies
add to that the possibility of disruption due to instability...
I don't much buy into the theory that shadow cubans will bring the whole thing down.
they don't have to bring it down as i understand it Cuban heavies help keep the police and military in line who in turn repress the populace-
The present regime will struggle to hold things together without them, the people will expect improvement in their lives, if they don't get it, will Trump send the military/CIA to help them?
Internet suggesting MAGA isn’t impressed given that one of the things he ran on was stopping an isolationist America getting involved in overseas wars.
mtg is already on the outside of the tent but most of them have their tongues so far up his flabby crack im amazed they can stop to type out the complete reversal of their opinions on regime change...
https://bsky.app/profile/dieworkwear.bsky.social/post/3mbntvx2buc2n
Trump undoubtedly hasnt worried about the details of getting the oil out, it will take years and require $bns?
That's the least of Trump concern at the moment. As long as US can dictate their terms to Venezuela oil companies they can control as they wish. Oil price will go up, insurance will go up, inflation will go up etc etc.
Problem is whether Venezuelan will play ball because any wrong move by the "interim" Venezuela President will result in the same action taken by Trump. Warning had also been issued to other South/Latin American leaders. Imagine a jail full of Presidents from S/Latin American. All the global objection means nothing to US Admin because 'power comes from the barrel of the gun'.
However, how US Admin is going to manage their "new found colony" should be interesting to observe.
Who's not the proper president? Trump or Maduro? Who stole the votes?
Well Trump may not mentioned the operation to Congress but he did apparently inform the oil companies. So that's all OK.
Internet suggesting MAGA isn’t impressed given that one of the things he ran on was stopping an isolationist America getting involved in overseas wars.
Has America, outside of the MAGA morons, lost their morale compass enough to be anything but disgusted by their country being the bad guy on the world scene by invading another country for purposes of robbing it?
There are always a handful of knuckle-draggers chanting USA-USA or posting pictures of the American flag onto maps of other countries such as the consistent vile katie Miller. But are they in enough numbers to win elections?? it just seems Trump has alienated more of his ever decreasing base.
Wait, he never told Congress? I thought that it was _the_ way he could go to war legally, you know, with the notifying Congress within 48 hours or something. Or is/was this not a war, just a special military operation?
I don't buy that this is about trying to steal Venezuela's oil - to do that needs $billions and more importantly many years to expand, rebuild, and modernise the current infrastructure. Oil companies aren't going to willingly invest that sort of money with no guarantee over how long they can steal the oil for.
Trump doesn't really think that far ahead either (he knows he's not going to be alive in 10 years anyway). It's probably some short term scam involving crypto to apply for oil extraction licences or something, which is just another vehicle for companies and foreign actors to give him cash as a bribe without actually expecting anything in return. Or just punishment as Maduro didn't already bend the knee (and a warning to heads of state that don't fall in line with whatever garbage the orange shit spouts).
or is/was this not a war, just a special military operation?
Correct.
I don't buy that this is about trying to steal Venezuela's oil - to do that needs $billions and more importantly many years to expand, rebuild, and modernise the current infrastructure. Oil companies aren't going to willingly invest that sort of money with no guarantee over how long they can steal the oil for.
Well from Newsweek:
"President Donald Trump has confirmed he spoke with oil companies "before and after" the operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday, Trump said he had spoken to "all" of the oil firms before the raid took place, without specifying what these conversations involved.
"They want to go in. And they’re going to do a great job for the people of Venezuela. And they’re going to represent us well," he added".
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-oil-companies-venezuela-action-11307459
I don't buy that this is about trying to steal Venezuela's oil - to do that needs $billions and more importantly many years to expand, rebuild, and modernise the current infrastructure. Oil companies aren't going to willingly invest that sort of money with no guarantee over how long they can steal the oil for.
If there is an oil company angle (as opposed to Trump underthinking it), I think it's far more likely they'd be asking for the Govt of Venezuela to cut deal about paying out on their bilateral investment treaty etc claims following the nationalisations a few years ago.
I don't buy that this is about trying to steal Venezuela's oil - to do that needs $billions and more importantly many years to expand, rebuild, and modernise the current infrastructure. Oil companies aren't going to willingly invest that sort of money with no guarantee over how long they can steal the oil for.
Trump doesnt concern himself with looking into the details (and nor do his followers)
Pretty sure this was largely about oil as that is what was talked about sorting after it was all done.
As mentioned above though, the US oil companies don't seem to be flocking to the feeding pit now the opportunities have been created!
I heard an argument that, yes, it's about oil, but not necessarily for the US to use or have access to, rather because of the currency it's traded in. It's in the USA's interests for all oil to be traded in US $, but Venezuela was intending to sell to China in Yuan.
Apparently, the risk of the world's largest reserves being traded in anything other than the dollar was seen as a threat.
Is there any truth in this? Or is it just more BS on the internet?
Apparently, the risk of the world's largest reserves being traded in anything other than the dollar was seen as a threat.
Same as gadaffi in Libya, it's not necessarily a current need for oil that has driven this U.S. attack on a sovereign country, it's part of the heritage foundation/project 2025 to ensure the U.S. is the #1 controlling body in the western hemisphere for the coming decades
There was the rumour that the real reason that the US started the gulf wars was to prevent oil being traded in euros, I think there were actually some plans to do that but can't remember exactly.
It's possible, but I haven't seen any serious analysis that suggests its plausible.
Trump mentioned oil about 22 times in a press conference, so yeah, it’s all about oil.
I heard an argument that, yes, it's about oil, but not necessarily for the US to use or have access to, rather because of the currency it's traded in. It's in the USA's interests for all oil to be traded in US $, but Venezuela was intending to sell to China in Yuan.
Apparently, the risk of the world's largest reserves being traded in anything other than the dollar was seen as a threat.
Is there any truth in this? Or is it just more BS on the internet?
We may be seeing the same internet BS but something about the US agreeing to support the Saudis if oil was traded in dollars? Keeps the dollar as the key currency for world trade.
Is there any truth in this? Or is it just more BS on the internet?
I saw a thread on bluesky about this which did that thing of taking one concept and then extrapolating it to be a simple and neat explanation for everything ever. The short answer is it's BS. Longer answer is that ofc the USA would prefer for all the things to be paid for in Dollars, but this administation has done lots of things that are making people wary for the dollars reserve status (taffifs, debanking ICC judges, threatening cananda / denmark etc etc etc).
This is about the oil and its control. Ie who it will be sold to and how much for. The profits to the East America Company will come in time.