Ukraine

They have't really been abandoned. They've been helped a lot, clearly. In fact the international sanctions may yet be the decisive blow. This might be why everyone is falling over themselves to send help, because they know they can't send in troops.

A couple of questions:

Would Russia have invaded Ukraine if Ukraine had held on to the nukes it inherited after the breakup of the USSR (and had worked out how to use them by now)?

If Russia and the west didn’t have nuclear weapons (E.g. both sides had disarmed) would we now be engaged in a conventional war with Russia?

If Russia and the west didn’t have nuclear weapons (E.g. both sides had disarmed) would we now be engaged in a conventional war with Russia?

Surely this is pretty much certain? We've already shown that we're willing to risk all economic and political links to Russia. Russia have shown that their conventional forces are pretty useless, and they don't have the economy to make more, so if NATO had no fear of nuclear escalation then I'm pretty sure that we could nip things in the bud and get them to go home pretty swiftly.

I guess the more realistic scenario is that they would never have gone in, or if they had then they'd have been beaten back long before now.

I'd say...

Yes (see India/****stan).

Yes (see every pre-WW2 European conflict).

Russia have shown that their conventional forces are pretty useless

That's a stretch.  I agree with the gist of your post otherwise, but whilst they have made some tactical and logistical errors (every army does to some degree) they are far, far from useless.

We’ve Russia's already shown that we’re they're willing to risk all economic and political links to Russia the rest of the world.

FTFY. Russia did this to themselves, we didn't do it to them.

They have’t really been abandoned. They’ve been helped a lot, clearly. In fact the international sanctions may yet be the decisive blow. This might be why everyone is falling over themselves to send help, because they know they can’t send in troops.

Absolutely. I should have been clearer, I'm referring to Zelensky's condemnation of the no fly zone decision, and his comment that the resulting deaths are on NATO's conscience. Those are strong words and I appreciate why, although it isn't NATO that are dropping the bombs.

Those are strong words and I appreciate why, although it isn’t NATO that are dropping the bombs.

They are strong words, I thought the same. As a way of garnering support he is running the risk of turning some people away but, looking at the way Russia is shelling civilian areas it must feel horribly desperate over there

I’m referring to Zelensky’s condemnation of the no fly zone decision, and his comment that the resulting deaths are on NATO’s conscience.

I'm assuming that he's fairly astute and he knew that NATO would not try to impose a NFZ. He knows that a NFZ is just another way of saying that NATO will join combat, and he knows that NATO will not join combat. However, by publicizing it like this, he's put massive pressure on NATO to do everything short of joining combat. Ukraine needs money, weapons, food, and medicine. They now pretty much have a blank cheque for whatever they ask for.

Russia have shown that their conventional forces are pretty useless

There's a YouTuber called Task & Purpose who I've been catching up with and one interesting point he makes is that historically Russian military doctrine is very different- it's very much about flooding the battlefield with cheaply equipped and poorly trained units, with the knowledge that victory will come at the cost of high casualties.

The other, very pertinent, point that he makes is that- for the first 5-6 days at least, the Russian army has been advancing exactly as fast as their supply lines and logistics have been allowing them to, and that 40 mile convoy is actually more about setting up a forward operating base just outside Kyiv- so it looks like it isn't moving, but in fact there's plenty of movement back and forth as they dump supplies at it's furthest point

I’m not an expert on India/****stan @colournoise but I didn’t think one side had attempted to completely take over the other in the way Russia is attempting with Ukraine.

It seems to me that the only value of nukes is that they stop people invading you. Faced with being destroyed you might use them, so people don’t try to destroy you. Other than that they don’t seem to be much use.

There is a lot of alarm and anxiety about what Putin might do if he is cornered, but I don’t see any attempt to corner him. If he wants to achieve certain military goals on Ukraine then he will be able to. We are just trying to make sure that is very expensive; economically, politically and militarily. So far I’d say that’s going pretty well. He’s paying a high price and so far has only captured a couple of cities. It’s only going to get harder for him as sanctions bite and his forces become more stretched trying to take other cities while defending the ones they hold.

The most likely scenario still seems to be that eventually he’ll “declare victory” and pull the troops back out. That’s probably still a long way off though.

If he’d scored a quick victory in Ukraine then maybe he’d have been emboldened to try and reclaim other former Soviet states, but that seems less likely now.

Obviously it’s a horrible situation for those in Ukraine, but all in all it seems to be going about as well as we could have hoped.

That’s a stretch. I agree with the gist of your post otherwise, but whilst they have made some tactical and logistical errors (every army does to some degree) they are far, far from useless.

If it came down the Russia vs the rest of the world with no nukes available, it would be done and dusted within days. Think how ineffective the Russians have been against just the Ukrainians. Just throwing in the us airforce into the equation would pretty much do for the Russians

Fact is, as has been pointed out earlier on this thread, Russia without nukes is irrelevant to the rest of the world. And putin would be treated no different than Sadam or Gaddafi by the west.

So I suspect the ceasefire is actually a sign of more horrors to come.

https://twitter.com/SarahJ_Berry/status/1500048551430303746?t=XIPOl_PfbyWCQ7sOADSUmQ&s=19

that historically Russian military doctrine is very different- it’s very much about flooding the battlefield with cheaply equipped and poorly trained units, with the knowledge that victory will come at the cost of high casualties.

It was a lot more nuanced than that, it relied on massive artillery barrages, high mobility, deployments of key engineering kit forward, air superiority. Essentially what was needed to invade western Europe. If you look at the detailed military mapping of the UK it's fantastic for military use for the old MRR, soft ground shown, bridge weights,road constrictions, industrial warehousing etc etc

There were massive flaws in the implementation, radios and command and control always an issue, they don't all speak the same language, kit issues and most of all corruption eating it from the inside out

@tpbiker of course Russia would lose against the the combined conventional forces of the rest of the world, name an army who wouldn't? Or even just the USA who still have the most capable military, by some margin.  That is not the same as Russia's forces being 'useless'.

I am cheering for the home team in this awful war big time and I acknowledge (and welcome) the fact that the Russian forces have made big mistakes.  Calling them 'useless' however is hyperbole.

Furthermore, how is this now viewed by other countries not allied with Russia or Nato, do they now rush to join one faction or the other to ensure their defence?

And what about those currently “allied”? I can’t see any countries rushing to leave NATO or the EU. But some of the RF states, and those partly held by Russia on its outskirts (Ukraine’s position ‘till recent weeks), will be very wary of what happens next, they won’t assume the status quo is stable and unchangeable, that’s for sure.

So I suspect the ceasefire is actually a sign of more horrors to come.

Reported the mayor has just postponed the evac as the Russians continued to shell civilians (and probably made some ground at the same time).

The videos of downed Russian jets show a real lack of training/tactics/modern munitions. They are flying around in the kill zone - easy meat for any MANPADS.

You either want to be very low - hard to acquire & ground clutter interferes with seekers. This requires skill, especially to actually atttack anything.

Alternatively fly high, above missile ceiling. This requires precision munitions - laser or gps guided.

I also wonder about the quality of their countermeasures. You will see both the jets and helicopters popping out flares to decoy the missiles. Th3 flare pattern should be set depending on what missiles the enemy has. Modern ones are very good at differentiating between engine heat and flares. All the missiles I’ve seen have completely ignored the flares.

https://twitter.com/djrothkopf/status/1500071418159153153

The videos of downed Russian jets show a real lack of training/tactics/modern munitions.

Apparently he fought in Syria so you'd expect him to know what he's doing. Guess he's never faced an opponent that can shoot back.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1500068960317972480

EDIT I dont want to be accused of war porn but the videos of the downed jet and another one of a helicopter being instantly blown up are shocking and there's a lot of emotional response for me currently.

However the chopper one is interesting because the missile comes from right in front of it, there's no time to react. I wonder if the open-ness of the terrain is a benefit to the attackers here? By the looks of things you can hide quite well with a MANPAD.

Yes, a MANPAD (Man Portable Air Defence) is the size of a bazooka that you fire & forget in 10 seconds. The helicopter one looks like it is fired & videod from height - possibly a block of flats.

Don't click on that Necro Twitter feed, if you're in any way squeamish. There's another pilot who didn't fare quite so well, amongst other horrors.

Reading in the Kyiv press a member of the Ukraine negotiating team that met with the Russians has been killed. He was being arrested by the Ukraine Security Service, suspected of 'leaking info' to the Russians. Ex chairman of Oschadbank.

Not sure if it's been covered but did anyone see that Lindsey Graham (Rep. Senator) gave a press conference imploring Russian oligarchs to assassinate Putin?

Makes him look like a hard man and might garner him a few votes but what it really does is legitimate assassination attempts on Zelinsky.

Expect said video to be on rotation in Russian media and Putin to ramp up attempts to kill the Ukranian president.

It's not STW'ers who need to STFU, it's US and UK politicians. I don't care what Johnson, Truss, or Raab have to say, loose talk costs lives.
A single government spokesperson communicating the UK position needs to be put in place, I know they're short on talent but I'm sure if all the information was coming from the defence minister we'd all feel a bit safer.

Don’t click on that Necro Twitter feed, if you’re in any way squeamish.

Yeah, there's a Twitter thread on the Russian paratroopers who got ambushed yesterday. Utterly brutal, wish I hadn't stumbled on it.

A single government spokesperson communicating the UK position needs to be put in place

I think it’s unrealistic to expect key UK politicians to be able to simply say “no comment”… and, despite agreeing with you on the (lack of) quality of many of said ministers, they have mostly kept a simple and clear line on Russia and Ukraine, even if they do need pushing hard on not giving an easy ride to Russian oligarchs and politicians being restricted by other countries. They can’t be blamed for the words of a USA Senator anyway.

Well done the Unite union - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-60631735

A welcome move, and loophole that needs plugging by UK & German governments.

Lindsey Graham is a US political irrelevance; for some time his statements - including yesterday's about assassinating putin - have been nothing more than pathetic attempts to keep his name in the news cycle.
As for (UK) politicians talking they still haven't learned that their comms must be clear, consistent and convincing.

I had to look twice at it

So did I

That's definitely not the reason I think STW are absolute ****ing roasters 😎

The reason the trucks/equipment are still exposed on the road is more likely down to the massive amount of equipment Russia has, much of which has been sat in holding lots for years whilst unserviced as there is no money to carry out the daily maintenance, the equipment is old and decrepit as the perished tyres/leaking hub seals/loose wiring shown on captured equipment is evidence of this.

Don't underestimate just how much servicing and replacement of parts is necessary on such ageing vehicles and Russia has dragged this equipment from storage and expected to be able to use it, unfortunately for Russia this has backfired as I imagine there is corruption throughout the ranks of the army siphoning off what little cash designated for servicing and maintenance to bolster their own pittance of a wage.

Well done the Unite union –

Definitely. A similar thing happened in one of the massive refineries in the Thames estuary, made me very proud of the union movement

It’s not STW’ers who need to STFU, it’s US and UK politicians. I don’t care what Johnson, Truss, or Raab have to say, loose talk costs lives.
A single government spokesperson communicating the UK position needs to be put in place, I know they’re short on talent but I’m sure if all the information was coming from the defence minister we’d all feel a bit safer.

+1.

there is no money to carry out the daily maintenance

Or, there is money and it's been pocketed by someone who was meant to be maintaining the trucks.

big_n_daft
Free Member

Military trucks aren’t fuel efficient, the engines will be running to keep the crews warm and tires inflated, refueling quickly is done by the vehicles traveling past the tanker not the tanker going to them, then there is the food, water, ammunition

It’s all friction, they have tipped past being an effective force and are now a liability

In the south they were able to keep moving, hence the different fortunes

Maybe dunno, fact it stretches right to the belarus border suggest supply line to me, but I'm just guessing.

Regarding fortunes in the north and south, yeah, it's interesting, tbh, a full on occupation seems mental, you just need to look at the demonstration in Kherson to see that they aren't welcome, so a full on occupation would be a brutal thing, it would be utter insanity.

I think the fact this is still billed a special operation gives Putin a lot of outs here, he can pull out to defensive positions at any time and declare victory on ground taken, although, I suspect he's a few weeks away from doing that convincingly, he need to consolidate gains in the south, and he needs to take Donbas, regarding the North, not sure, he's committed to Kharkiv, whether taking it or it's destruction is enough, who knows? Regarding Kyiv, I wonder if it's a bit of a decoy tbh, given it's not really been attacked yet, and attacking it wouldn't play well at home. I'd imagine it does tie up a lot of forces.

Maybe dunno, fact it stretches right to the belarus border suggest supply line to me, but I’m just guessing.

But they're apparently not moving.

Apparently he fought in Syria so you’d expect him to know what he’s doing. Guess he’s never faced an opponent that can shoot back.

There's more to the downing of that Su-34 than the pilot having to deal with MANPADs, apparently the Russian Air Force has an acute shortage of precision guided munitions, so pilots have to descend to lower altitudes in order to drop free fall bombs with any sort of accuracy, which in turn that leaves the attacking aircraft more vulnerable to ground fire.

Quite likely a bogus story, but the Ukrainian PR is making the Russians look like fools.

https://twitter.com/tanteju79/status/1500078469916545024