Do we REALLY believe putin would go nuclear or is it a great bluff on his part?
This is the question NATO have to consider when deciding on its response. Sadly I think this particular battle (for Ukraine) is lost - for now. But in the longer term insurgency in Ukraine against Russia and the economic separation of Russia from the global community will I think redress the balance.
Mols - 100%; we don't have armed forces which align with our perception of the UK's global role.
Let down by many governments.
I applied to join the Royal Ordnance Corps decades ago - bomb disposal and similar - but didn't make their grade; lifelong regret.
Didn’t they do something very similar about 80 years ago for Nazi Gernany??
I remember something about this, I'm pretty sure they had a licensed factory in Nazi Germany or something...
It’s not like we can roll in with our own troops is it?
Good point, it's quite the bind- which is prob why the whole thing feels so frustrating!
Has anyone seen the reports that FSB agents have been tipping off Zalensky about assassination attempts?
Yes, quite shocking. It's a really bizarre situation for the Russians and the military. It is possible that there is some master plan, but it's also possible that the military are trying to sabotage Putin through his operation, rather than via a direct coup. Which is a fascinating idea. These are all 'maybes' :
1. Possible tip-offs to the Ukranians
2. Abandoning the AAD truck and leaving all the gear running to allow the Ukrainians access to Russian comms
3. Getting their own vehicles stuck, or ordering your troops to do go places knowing they'll get stuck just to give them an excuse to walk home
4. Deliberately dragging your feet to stall the advance, allow the Ukranians to organise and receive aid and running down your own supplies to make it inevitable that you have to abandon.
Is there any historical precedent for this? An army sabotaging its own war because neither the officers or the troops want to fight it?
Here's a good read about the history of and challenges associated with enforcing a no-fly zone.
The dangerous allure of the no-fly zone
So in theory could the Ukrainian Air Force park their planes in say Poland and go hunting from there? Safe place to retreat to and NATO protected while parked?
The reason we have Fanta is thanks to the sanctions imposed on Germany. The raw materials for Coca Cola weren't available. Coca Cola's German dept created Fanta.
So in theory could the Ukrainian Air Force park their planes in say Poland and go hunting from there?
Not sure of the legalities but it's quite a long way so scrambling planes to intercept planes carrying out missions in the east in time could be hard.
I'm not sure that Putin would view it in the same way
If we could encourage a mass surrender that would help a lot.
The issue is providing some form of asylum is fine for the soldier but would leave the family open to awful sanctions by the Russian state
The thing that will help most is when they do surrender treat them well and make sure they are kept away from those who would take the opportunity to get revenge. Surrendering is a lot easier if you know you are going to be treated well. If you think you are doomed regardless then it's fight on and commit awful atrocities until they get you
Quick Google, it's 940Km from the nearest airbase in Poland to Kiev, the MiG-29 has a ferry range of 1500km. Not sure if that is with payload (or what that looks like) or not.
Not sure of the legalities but it’s quite a long way so scrambling planes to intercept planes carrying out missions in the east in time could be hard.
'Frustrating' is a fair and measured way to describe it. Fully aware why we can't just go wading in to help on the ground or impose a no fly zone but it's currently a no win situation. I fully appreciate the Ukrainians anger at the rest of Europe just now. It's irrational but would we not feel the same if under attack??
Quick Google, it’s 940Km from the nearest airbase in Poland to Kiev, the MiG-29 has a ferry range of 1500km. Not sure if that is with payload (or what that looks like) or not.
So that's what, 45 mins of flying at least. Large amounts of Russia and Belarus are a lot closer than that so Russian planes could have dropped their bombs and be on their way home before interceptors from Poland arrived - even if they had a plane with the range.
I think any nation would feel exactly the same way. Many probably have.
‘Frustrating’ is a fair and measured way to describe it. Fully aware why we can’t just go wading in to help on the ground or impose a no fly zone but it’s currently a no win situation. I fully appreciate the Ukrainians anger at the rest of Europe just now. It’s irrational but would we not feel the same if under attack??
Aye, not ideal. They'd have to have ferry tanks to have a hope of RTB, or a tanker.
So that’s what, 45 mins of flying at least. Large amounts of Russia and Belarus are a lot closer than that so Russian planes could have dropped their bombs and be on their way home before interceptors from Poland arrived – even if they had a plane with the range.
Here's a link to an article detailing RF equipment losses. The list is only based on what can be confirmed through video and photographic evidence, thought some of you might enjoy getting into the numbers.
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html?m=1
Here’s a link to an article detailing RF equipment losses
Good article! Thanks for posting. 92 tanks sounds like a lot at first, before you realise that Russia is used to dealing with numbers well in to the thousands!
Also, there's a lot of abandoned and captured stuff there- is that normal?!? Especially good for Ukraine I guess as they prob know how to use it!
slowoldman
Full Member
Do we REALLY believe putin would go nuclear or is it a great bluff on his part?This is the question NATO have to consider when deciding on its response. Sadly I think this particular battle (for Ukraine) is lost – for now. But in the longer term insurgency in Ukraine against Russia and the economic separation of Russia from the global community will I think redress the balance.
I feel people keep talking about an insurgency with an overly romantic view as if it's France May 1940.
Unfortunately it isn't. If Russia eventually takes over the whole or part of Ukraine(I think it's still unknown if there will be a complete or partial occupation), there's a difference.
The difference back then is that there were countries willing to act with a counter invasion force. The French resistance was noble, but it wouldn't have continued indefinitely under occupation if there wasn't something else to counter..
I think there's going to have to be a capitulation at some point on the Ukrainian side in negotiations. (Unless a miracle happens and Russia collapses internally somehow.) Beyond fighting it out as much as they can there's no other real negotiating leverage?
So in theory could the Ukrainian Air Force park their planes in say Poland and go hunting from there? Safe place to retreat to and NATO protected while parked?
This falls into the same category as dreams of a no-fly zone. It ain't gonna happen and it would actually strengthen Putin's hand.
If any aircraft launched from a NATO base engaged in combat, Putin would take that as a NATO attack (and he'd basically be correct). Russian citizens might oppose attacking Ukraine (hence Putin pretending it's not actually a war), but they would see any NATO involvement as an attempt by a hostile West to destroy Russia.
The same goes for the no-fly zone idea. Enforcing that means shooting down Russian planes and helicopters, plus bombing radar and SAM batteries. In other words, calls for a no-fly zone are really calls for NATO to jump right in. I'm strongly on Ukraine's side in this war, but NATO getting involved would almost certainly be met with Russia deploying tactical nuclear weapons.
Ideas like these are virtue signaling, they aren't going to happen because they are terrible ideas.
I'm hoping this guy is right, but I suspect that the Russians will get their logistics sorted out and then they will just flatten any Ukrainian resistance they encounter.
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1499894935209795594
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1499894955996856327
tbf, you can have a gander at the road it's on, seems to be on the P02 road which looks like an actual road, so not really sure how much trouble the are having with mud on a fully paved road.
https://www.google.com/maps/ @50.9519645,29.8784115,3a,75y,131.42h,83.08t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1s022wPJBTKCMZ6WwtN1dtKw!2e0!6shttps:%2F%2Fstreetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com%2Fv1%2Fthumbnail%3Fpanoid%3D022wPJBTKCMZ6WwtN1dtKw%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D50.299503%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i13312!8i6656
looks like that up the length of it.
Also most of it seems to be parked on one lane, so I don't get this all you need to do is bomb a couple at the front patter you hear from people. I'd have a guess it's heavily protected from the air and it's just sitting there waiting on orders tbh.
Russian citizens might oppose attacking Ukraine (hence Putin pretending it’s not actually a war), but they would see any NATO involvement as an attempt by a hostile West to destroy Russia.
That's the fine lin we are having to tread. As well as the direct threat of Russian retaliation if NATO "do something", it bolsters support for Putin at home, the two things we don't want to happen.
A hellish Gordian knot to untangle.
I think the problem is that the vehicles at the front are out of fuel but fuel trucks have to work their way past miles and miles of traffic jam. They need to move vehicles off the road to allow resupply of the vehicles at the front, but they can't park in the fields or they'll bog down. On top of that, the Russians are probably terrified that snipers, Javelins, or drones are likely to attack any vehicle that starts moving so they are probably keen to just hunker down and wait for someone else to sort it all out.
I think that is wishful thinking, like I say most vehicles are at one side, it's a 2 way road not a single track lane and they’ll have driven, what? A couple hundred km at most from their bases in belarus? I doubt they'll have used that much fuel, and even if they had, it doesn't take that long to drive down a few tankers.
Yes, I agree that there is some wishful thinking, it's unlikely that the Russians won't be able to get moving, but it's also pretty clear that the first week has not gone the way they expected. Having equipment spread out over miles and miles of road for days on end was surely not part of the plan.
[img] 
[/img]
Seems to be sitting around that which is about 65km from the belarus border, inside Russian controlled territory coming from chernobyl, going from frontline maps you see. Though I can only make out the roundabout outside Ivankiv, and bits up the road there, so can't tell if it's gone any further than that.
thols2
Free Member
Yes, I agree that there is some wishful thinking, it’s unlikely that the Russians won’t be able to get moving, but it’s also pretty clear that the first week has not gone the way they expected. Having equipment spread out over miles and miles of road for days on end was surely not part of the plan.
No idea what it is tbh or what it's doing. Could even just be logistics itself to support troops?
"Today, on 5 March at 10 a.m. Moscow time, the Russian side declares a ceasefire and opens humanitarian corridors for the exit of civilians from Mariupol and Volnovakha", the Russian Defence Ministry told reporters on Saturday.
I'm getting a security message on that link to do with its certificate. Don't know what's up with it
A lot of cynics think the Russians want a ceasefire because their troops are out of food and fuel and need a break to resupply.
I feel people keep talking about an insurgency with an overly romantic view as if it’s France May 1940.
If anyone has romanticised views on what the experience of resistance in France was like there’s some radically different interpretations of historical events going on. Looked bloody terrifying to me.
There’s a more relevant example of occupation resistance activity from the same time period from Ukraine, both during and after the war. That manages to be even more horrible.
A lot of cynics think the Russians want a ceasefire because their troops are out of food and fuel and need a break to resupply.
Or a "look at us trying to protect civilians" before they go in and flatten the place completely.
The history of the "humanitarian corridors" opened by Russia in Syria is an unhappy one. Limited timed opening that were used by forces friendly to the Syrian regime to fire at civilians and anti-Syrian forces.
Let's hope these are more successful
It may have been covered already, but reports that as many as three credible assassination attempts on my current man-crush Volodymyr Z have been foiled.
But the key point being that reports are saying the info on who/how to enable them to be foiled has been coming from within the FSB. If there are people that supportive of VZ / Ukraine penetrating in the FSB, is the coup / removal by whatever means of Putin that far-fetched?
A lot of cynics think the Russians want a ceasefire because their troops are out of food and fuel and need a break to resupply
That's my thoughts too. Let the civilians leave of their own free will while restocking the troops to go in and destroy what resistance remains in a few days. It also makes Putin look more human to the home crowd. Give it 48 hours and all hell will break loose again.
If any aircraft launched from a NATO base engaged in combat, Putin would take that as a NATO attack (and he’d basically be correct). Russian citizens might oppose attacking Ukraine (hence Putin pretending it’s not actually a war), but they would see any NATO involvement as an attempt by a hostile West to destroy Russia.
The same goes for the no-fly zone idea. Enforcing that means shooting down Russian planes and helicopters, plus bombing radar and SAM batteries. In other words, calls for a no-fly zone are really calls for NATO to jump right in. I’m strongly on Ukraine’s side in this war, but NATO getting involved would almost certainly be met with Russia deploying tactical nuclear weapons.
Yep, NATO just cannot get directly involved until there is absolutely no other option.
If there are people that supportive of VZ / Ukraine penetrating in the FSB, is the coup / removal by whatever means of Putin that far-fetched?
Alternatively it is just trying to sew suspicion within the FSB to undermine it. There is no real way of knowing. It will be interesting to look back on this in 10 years if we make it that far.
Alternatively it is just trying to sew suspicion within the FSB to undermine it.
Yes, that's my take on it.
I don't how many people follow John Sweeney on Twitter? Independent UK journalist doing a daily vlog from inside Kyiv. This morning's is interesting. More optimistic than some of his others which have included some of the darkness and despair you can imagine. Arguably it's overly optimistic - but I'll take it. His gives some detail on how the Ukrainians have managed to contain/stall the large convoy. Brave man, as are all the journalists giving us some insight into what's happening.
https://twitter.com/johnsweeneyroar/status/1500022349822836738?s=20&t=I2MIhbhOS4ajMG_LFGQ9ng
I think that is wishful thinking, like I say most vehicles are at one side, it’s a 2 way road not a single track lane and they’ll have driven, what? A couple hundred km at most from their bases in belarus? I doubt they’ll have used that much fuel, and even if they had, it doesn’t take that long to drive down a few tankers.
Military trucks aren't fuel efficient, the engines will be running to keep the crews warm and tires inflated, refueling quickly is done by the vehicles traveling past the tanker not the tanker going to them, then there is the food, water, ammunition
It's all friction, they have tipped past being an effective force and are now a liability
In the south they were able to keep moving, hence the different fortunes
This is not designed to be a controversial post, just food for thought. Regarding the (perceived?) racism at the border. Me and Mrs WF were discussing this earlier and it struck me that, just maybe, it is nothing more than the fact that non-Ukrainian passport holders will still have a home to go to and are therefore not entitled to asylum/refugee status within the EU. Thus holders of passports from Africa, Asia or elsewhere would have been told to take a different (lower priority) queue for processing. Depending who is in this "not seeking asylum" line, it would naturally give the impression of racial segregation that could be easily misinterpreted by someone with an agenda.
I think there is genuine racism at the border, there was even a report on the BBC yesterday of bbc reporters being harassed by Polish "ultras" who have taken it on themselves to become a vigilante border force.
I think that what should be looked at in this is the Russian misinformation campaign that has been going on for years, focussing on ramping up racism to disrupt European politics, and how that has been a big contributor to these scenes of racism we are now seeing at the border.
A good point. Special visa arrangements have been made for one set of non-EU residents (Ukrainians), others need to be processed in an entirely different way. And there is likely to be some confusion on the ground as to what is going on, as you'd expect at a border flooded with refugees. Doesn't exclude the possibility that some refugees have experienced discrimination, obviously. As MSP says, division and ultra-nationalism has been fomented throughout Europe, and far-right types will try to take advantage of the chaos, just as Yaxley-Lennon's mob would do the same at our border.
I'm finding the reports from the border crossings and train stations too hard to watch right now. Absolutely heart-rending.
Yep, NATO just cannot get directly involved until there is absolutely no other option.
In discussion with a friend yesterday the rather sad realisation is that one way or another Ukraine likely has to be left to defend themselves against Putin to avoid WW3. I feel for them and Zelensky, and am not sure what an apparent abandonment / sitting back in idlement for the sake of the bigger picture will have on Ukraine, Nato and EU politics in the future.
Furthermore, how is this now viewed by other countries not allied with Russia or Nato, do they now rush to join one faction or the other to ensure their defence?
