China and Russia are 'pals' in that they'll back each other up on the world stage over issues like 'whether it's really necessary to have a democracy' and 'does it matter if you massacre your own citizens'.
But they still have a fairly delicate relationship. China still believe that Russia 'stole' a chunk of Siberia (north and east of the Amur River) from them with that treaty of 18xx. (Russia believed China had stolen it with the treaty of 16xx).
Anyway, these days Siberia is increasingly full of Chinese people setting up businesses and stuff, while Putin is trying to entice Russians to move out east with grants and tax incentives (and mostly failing).
As Siberia warms up and becomes livable, farmable and generally temperate over the next few decades it's going to become increasingly desirable. China definitely have their eye on it.
Gotta love social media, some Ukranians are making tiktok videos on how to start (once you've put fuel in then) Russian vehicles.
Brilliant.
Long thread, but well worth 5mins of your time, if only to give some background information as to Putins mindset right now.
Also this one...
https://twitter.com/ProfessorShaw/status/1496672144566235137
Why would China dirty their hands with this by choosing a ‘side’?
Taiwan. If NATO (and the West) had just shrugged and turned their backs, I think China would probably already be rolling their tanks into Taiwan while the world media is distracted in Ukraine. Once it's done Putin and his flunkies in the various shit-holes his mercenaries have taken over will support and give credence to the illegal invasion.
Hasn’t stopped them in the past, but they rely so very much on the West for significant amounts of trade, both in and out of the country.
Bingo.
China won't overtly get involved, because it's not in thier long term interests.
Hmm, twitter's stopped working for me.
Apparently, a whole bunch of EV chargers on the motorway between Moscow and St Petersburg have been hacked, put out of use, and are displaying anti-Putin messages. The supplier is Ukrainian…
The cyber attacks stuff is interesting.
I know not very much about it though...
.
Will the Russian nuclear weapons be linked into any accessible networks? Could they be hacked via the Internet or would they have a totally separate system all of their own? They must be able to communicate with each other and the Russian government, Kremlin, whoever, there might be a weak spot there somewhere.
I assume people like the CIA, MI6, Mossad will have some of the best hackers out there. Collectively could they possibly find a way in to disable them? Who are Anonymous? For all we know they could be those agencies collaborating but with a good degree of deniabilty. Or at least maverick elements from within them, with all the resources that would entail.
.
If someone, somewhere can find a way to disable the Russian nukes the whole thing changes entirely.
.
Is this even possible, never mind likely?
Apparently, a whole bunch of EV chargers on the motorway between Moscow and St Petersburg have been hacked, put out of use, and are displaying anti-Putin messages. The supplier is Ukrainian…
Sucks if you own a tesla, but good work, lol
I thought China needed to be pals with Russia so they can get hold of their technology and make knock-offs of it?
In the 1980's, maybe...
We are a long way on from this...
China's primary interest in keeping a relationship with Russia will be based on the potential supply of cheap oil and gas. But whilst it would be a significant bonus, it would not be in any way worth publicly aligning themselves with a Russia rabidly trying to rebuild the Soviet Empire!
I thought China needed to be pals with Russia so they can get hold of their technology and make knock-offs of it?
I think you have a very old fashioned view of China's technological capabilities.
I have nothing but admiration for those in Moscow protesting to stop the war, and those here.
According to the NYT Monaco is looking at seizing Russian assets and Norway is sending weapons to Ukraine.
I’d imagine that if they are able to hack Russia’s nuke systems then the US/U.K. wouldn’t do so until the absolute last minute, don’t want to give your cards away on just a threat which will then allow Russia to close whatever access and make it much harder to hack in future
Russia claimed to be taking over to protect Russian civilians, but is indiscriminately firing missiles into areas occupied by Russian speakers:
^^ Totally agree, it's a reminder that Russia and the Russians aren't the enemy, it's Putin's Russia that is the problem.
Those protesters are showing amazing courage.
Have to agree. Some of the bravery shown in Russia in recent days has been amazing.
Regarding dyna-ti’s post on the previous page – China explicitly said today that they are not allies of Russia:
Sorry, I've missed that at some point, I was under the impression they had a better relationship with Russia than the rest of the world has. Given that China has offered help in the way of lifting wheat importing restrictions opening the door for increased income form exports. That was on the 25th though.
Clearly now on the 28th they've had a shifting in relations, China fearing its relationship with the rest of the world. There was pretty much before this started much discussion about Russia and China moving closer together, but again after the start of hostilities China is again shifting its position.
At the start of the year Putin and President Xi Jinping issued a statement which declared the 'friendship between the two States has no limits'.
Thought it had survived but just heard the (one & only) An-225 was destroyed after all…
Wonder why it remained stored near Kyiv, or even in Ukraine at all.
Wonder why it remained stored near Kyiv, or even in Ukraine at all.
It's a Ukrainian plane. It's also a tricky one to store, as it doesn't (didn't) even fit in it's purpose built hanger! That thing was a monster, I'm genuinely sad it's gone. There is a half built sister plane, maybe it can still be resurrected...
please forgive me if to me that sounded like they had a close partnership.
Well yeah they're both pretty slippery customers so it's never easy to know exactly what's the real truth!
I guess it doesn't mean that they weren't allies yesterday, or won't be tomorrow...
bikesandboots
Full Member
Thought it had survived but just heard the (one & only) An-225 was destroyed after all…Wonder why it remained stored near Kyiv, or even in Ukraine at all
An engine was removed being repaired, it couldn't be sorted in time to fly her out.
The company that built is say it will cost around 3 billion dollars to rebuild they are intending to try to get the Russians to pay for it. I like their style.
Clearly now on the 28th they’ve had a shifting in relations, China fearing its relationship with the rest of the world.
I wonder if China is watching the West scramble to drop anything Russia related and is worrying that it could happen to them? I mean we buy a lot of Chinese stuff, but how much of that is stuff we could simply do without if it weren't cheap and easy to get?
Wonder why it remained stored near Kyiv, or even in Ukraine at all.
It had engines out for maintenance
Not how read his post, he did state if.
Taiwan. If NATO (and the West) had just shrugged and turned their backs, I think China would probably already be rolling their tanks into Taiwan while the world media is distracted in Ukraine.
@ mboy
In fairness I think he meant after an amphibious landing.
Super secret submarine tanks? With bloody big fuel tanks?
^^ In fairness I think he meant after an amphibious landing.
I thought that bit was obvious tbh.
This is an interesting surmation.
I do get the sense Russia are holding back, a lot, and if Putin goes full batshit, this could get extremely ugly very quickly.
I didn’t read it as a literal statement, just a way of saying China is close to performing a similar atrocity as Russia is doing. If the West hadn’t of intervened in the Ukraine crisis then China may have took that as a green light to invade Taiwan.
Yep, I said last night that for the moment people in Taiwan are probably sleeping a little better in their beds.
Shame this had to happen to allow for that.
Super secret submarine tanks? With bloody big fuel tanks?
😂
Not how read his post, he did state if.
My issue wasn't with the use of the word "if"... We know China has designs on Taiwan, has done for some time now. My issue was how the military genius would "roll tanks" into Taiwan, a remote mountainous island with literally no natural ports and a very densely built population centres surrounded by dense forests... 🤷🏻♂️
It's one thing taking a short drive down a motorway from the Belorussian border to Kyiv, quite different getting a tank a greater distance across the sea, then finding somewhere to land it, on quite inhospitable terrain etc...
Well, attacking underwater is one way of avoiding the A10s
mols - China have made big efforts to reposition their manufacturing base; their drive for some years has been towards hi-tech and AI to the extent that they've out-sourced some of the cheap low-end stuff elsewhere in far east.
They definitely still produce lots of cheap disposables and will take a long time to wean the west off that; a further consideration is that on/re-shoring products currently manufactured in China will increase prices - setting up the manufacturing infrastructure, higher labour costs and 'importing' pollution are a few of the considerations.
There's also the matter of political will.
On the wider point about China, they're supreme pragmatists; the chinese communist party and national congress won't do anything to jeapordise their relentless progress to becoming the world's pre-eminent superpower.
They have been and still are playing a very long game.
I have little doubt they look at Putin has done to identify lessons to be learned and to identify opportunities.
You didn't know the A-10 had a martime variant?
Well, attacking underwater is one way of avoiding the A10s
😂😂😂
bikesandboots
Full MemberWonder why it remained stored near Kyiv, or even in Ukraine at all.
Well, it was built there and was based there... It wasn't in constant use, being only used for the biggest jobs so it might not have been flightworthy on short notice- it was common for it to sit for months between jobs.
It feels really wrong, when people are losing homes and lives and so much is at stake, but this one thing made me really sad. There's something about one-offs and this is a thing that the whole world's lost. I guess it's a bit like the taliban destroying art and statues. They're making brave noises about replacing it but it's not likely, it's the sort of thing you use because you have it not because it makes sense.
Though, a second incomplete airframe does exist, or did.
China have made big efforts to reposition their manufacturing base; their drive for some years has been towards hi-tech and AI to the extent that they’ve out-sourced some of the cheap low-end stuff elsewhere in far east
I agree with that, however (and correct me if I am wrong) there are competitors for much of that stuff already in the rest of the world, so it would be relatively easy to get our higher tech elsewhere. I have read that the Chinese economy is somewhat exposed, not sure how significant it is.
But this is a tangent now.
Will the Russian nuclear weapons be linked into any accessible networks? Could they be hacked via the Internet or would they have a totally separate system all of their own?
No, atomic weapons have their own discrete control systems and are air-gapped, interlocked and coded for the very reason that you don’t want anyone messing with them. There are strict protocols and procedures agreed in international treaties. Thankfully, the big red button on Putin’s desk won’t be connected to anything meaningful.
Yeah, far less important things than that sit on isolated networks, it's standard procedure.
You think I'm joking?
Goes PFFFFFFFTTTTT.
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That Michael Kofman twitter thread is fairly frightening if it comes to fruition.
There’s something about one-offs and this is a thing that the whole world’s lost. I guess it’s a bit like the taliban destroying art and statues.
Hitler largely funded his war effort with stolen art and treasures from various sources don't forget... And when things were going sour at the end, he ordered as much of it to be destroyed as possible rather than falling back into allied hands!
Wartime holds no emotion towards material objects I'm afraid to say.