Agreed - we do need to be careful, but even being objective it looks like something has gone badly wrong here. If the Russians correct it and capture the cities over the next few days, or even weeks, then maybe we will never find out. But if not, then maybe we will start to see the accuracy, or otherwise of the claims. Also if the losses are as high as claimed then surely some of this must start getting back to relatives and families soon?
Brave move by Finland. It has been said there is no such country as Finland from certain sources. Finlandization is a well known term relating to their history.
When I was there they were a proud independent people who just happen to border Russia.
Good luck to them.
Thanks for posting the machine translation Mashr. Neutrality and non-intervention policies are being ripped up across Europe. And Putin made this happen. There is only one aggressor in this, and he is forcing the rest of Europe into acting against his interests. Even if he does achieve what he wants militarily, he has isolated his country within Europe now for as long as he remains its leader.
, or the objective fact that in less than a week Russia hasn’t defeated Ukraine?
It's being reported the Russians have lost more troops in under a week than they have in 8 years of fighting in Syria, if thats even close to accurate they won't be able to hide it from the Russian public for long no matter how any of this is presented by their state controlled news channels
It’s being reported the Russians have lost more troops in under a week than they have in 8 years of fighting in Syria
It's been reported by Ukraine who isn't trustworthy because they have every incentive to lie to further their own interest.
It’s been reported by Ukraine who isn’t trustworthy because they have every incentive to lie to further their own interest.
It's certainly more plausible than the Russian story of "nothing to see here move along"
It’s been reported by Ukraine who isn’t trustworthy because they have every incentive to lie to further their own interest.
It’s certainly more plausible than the Russian story of “nothing to see here move along”
Fair point.
PCA reporting bridges blown over the Dniepr, and also a 17 mile long convoy spotted moving closer. No independent verification, but if true then the application of that overwhelming force could be about to begin. Terrible for civilians still there.
Will the Russian soliders have their phones? Will they be able to access the internet on Ukranian networks?
Your suggesting that Putin’s war, and military, is doing well then?
It depends what you believe Russian objectives to be, and no one outside the Kremlin can be certain.
From an article in the FT at the start of the Russian invasion :
Western officials fear invasion could devastate eastern Ukraine and leave Kyiv besieged within days.
Kyiv was besieged within days - it's been 4 days since the start of the invasion.
Also from the article :
"They’re making a move on Kyiv. But what they’re going to do in Kyiv is hard to say,” said a senior US defence official.
Western capitals believe that Putin “wants to suffocate rather than flatten Kyiv”, said the senior intelligence official, but there were huge concerns over how high the death toll could be, given the Russian president’s stated aim to “demilitarise” a country with a standing army of 215,000 troops.
The key thing is what is Russia’s end goal? The actions will fit that,” said Cranny-Evans. “If they only go where Ukrainian forces are, that speaks to Putin’s repeated statements of demilitarising Ukraine. Regime change would follow. If Russian troops go into the cities, where there are likely no Ukrainian forces, that suggests a different goal.”
"I suspect this will be a stop-go operation: two to four days of advance, pause and recoup to assess the situation — militarily, politically,” said Mathieu Boulègue, research fellow at Chatham House’s Eurasia programme. “Next steps depend on acceptable casualty rates for the military — but that is an internal Russian decision.”
“It looks like a maximalist approach, but could be a deception strategy to merely take the Donbas,” he continued, referring to the eastern region of Ukraine occupied by Russia-backed separatists.
If some of those assessments in the FT are correct then there is no particular reason to believe that things are going badly for the Russians.
https://www.ft.com/content/948dca16-71b9-42c8-9faa-e66c0a76aca7
This isn't Chechnya, it's unlikely that the Russians are considering flattening Ukraine.
molgrips
Full Member
Will the Russian soliders have their phones? Will they be able to access the internet on Ukranian networks?
I was wondering just that. Calls and texts to home might be a sideways way of the reality reaching home.
an ally Russia trusts, namely China.
Where has this idea that Russia and China are allies come from? They may be some "enemy of my enemy is my friend" going on at the moment due to the childish populist attacks on China lead by Trump over the past 5 years, but China and Russia are not friendly nations and there is very little trust between them.
Will the Russian soliders have their phones? Will they be able to access the internet on Ukranian networks?
well apparently you could see the russian convoys in red on the google maps traffic layer until they turned it off.
Apparently the island guards are still alive.
However, answer me this. How can idiots like Truss et al, be let anywhere near this world-changing situation?
Sadly we no longer attract ex-diplomats into high political office. They are too smart to get involved with the brain dead.
I dont see Putin being able to retreat back into Russia and being left alone by NATO as if nothing had happened, surely?
Are you suggesting NATO attacks Russia?
i_scoff_cake
It’s been reported by Ukraine who isn’t trustworthy because they have every incentive to lie to further their own interest.
Ok I've got to ask this.
Most on here are supportive Ukraine for pretty self evident reasons.
Can I ask, why are you so determined to see them lose? I think it's a legitimate question to ask at this point.
Please, please don't say you are just "seeking the truth" because it sounds like you are as partisan as the rest of us, just from a polar opposite direction.
seosamh77
Full Memb https://www.euronews.com/2022/02/28/ukraine-war-snake-island-border-guards-are-alive-and-well-says-ukrainian-navyApparently the island guards are still alive.
That's bloody fantastic news!
It’s been reported by Ukraine who isn’t trustworthy because they have every incentive to lie to further their own interest.
Even if it is propaganda. Who gives a **** if it helps them defend their country.their families and their nation from the invaders.
Don't lose sight of the enemy here in the seeking of ideals.
It's war . Not playground Tig.
I was wondering just that. Calls and texts to home might be a sideways way of the reality reaching home.
They were making a big deal about the Russian Soldiers having their mobile phones taken from them before they were sent out. I thought that was standard practice whilst in the "warzone" for any soldier from any country ?
The Russian casualty reports are being backed up by Nato, and are going to be ballpark correct. They don't have good morale, and are surrendering in groups after they run out of fuel and get shot up a bit. There's apparently a Facebook page you can go to , and have a look to see if any of the prisoners is one of your relatives.
Mobile phones were banned in the Russian army because of continual security links, but lots of them still have them, and are 'encouraged' when captured to phone home. I can't imagine captured saboteurs will have a very good time of it - not covered by the Geneva convention.
Tough position , can't say no to Putin, but has an unhappy public and an army that's prone to rebelling , so looks like a quick route to the end of a rope if things go wrong, and they probably will.
At this point Putin has achieved Finland ready to join Nato, Ukraine joining the EU and Turkey banning naval passage. Plus losing a lot of troops and demonstrating a lot of their superweapons ain't that great. Top skills! Plus NATO get access to all those knocked out vehicles for testing
Thought it had survived but just heard the (one & only) An-225 was destroyed after all...
https://twitter.com/ukraine/status/1497961514480902148?s=21
🤬
On what basis are you making that claim? Ukrainian social media pumping out its own propaganda about Russian losses, or the objective fact that in less than a week Russia hasn’t defeated Ukraine?
So you implicitly believe Russian propaganda? Putin is the master of lies, his entire life has been devoted to developing asymmetric warfare by using disinformation and outright lying. Just look at the attempted poisoning in Salisbury, which was shown to be hopelessly inept in its execution by supposedly experienced operatives.
The Russians have discovered just how fragile supply trains can be in providing fuel and other essentials, and it’s completely forgotten the lesson Finland taught it during the Winter War, when a much smaller, largely volunteer army, stopped the Russian advance and ultimately sent it back with its tail between its legs - Ukrainian volunteers have access to much better weapons, in particular what is now being referred to as St Javelin, the multi-use shoulder launched anti-tank missile, which Russian armour doesn’t have an effective defence against.
I have no difficulty in believing the number of vehicles destroyed by Ukrainian fighters. I have every confidence that everything that Russian media says is lies and obfuscation - it’s following the processes laid down by the KGB, the FSB and Putin, it’s former director.
If you believe the Russians, then you’re completely deluded, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised that you also believe Trump was America’s greatest president, the world is flat, there is a Man in the Moon, and the Tooth Fairy leaves sixpence under your pillow in exchange for a baby tooth.
If some of those assessments in the FT are correct then there is no particular reason to believe that things are going badly for the Russians.
There are many more experts who believe things are going badly for Russia.
If you believe the Russians
It's not black and white, it never is. Don't you think there could be some grou do in between?
Question everything, even if it comes from the side you like. Which is a lot harder than when it comes from the side you don't like.
CZ - go easy; Father Christmas definitely exists.
There are certain posters, you can guess which side they be cheering for before they have even posted…
Anyone watching channel 4 news right now??
The reporter is going batshit against a Putin apologist.
He's just watched a 6 year old girl die after her flat was shelled....
Can we talk for a moment about the real human cost here, not the high policy stuff?
There are growing numbers of reports of war crimes emerging.
- cluster weapons being used in civilian / residential areas.
- rocket and artillery attacks on residential areas.
- regular, indescriminate firing of single shell's or rockets 'accidentally' into residential blocks.
- criminal behaviour such as murder, bank robbery and theft.
Awful.
Meanwhile we're second guessing PooTin's physchology or praising a millionaires boat getting damp.
🙁
^^ Only one man can stop that.
I agree outs awful but that's why so much of the thread is focused on Putin, sanctions etc etc.
Oh God the tv news coverage is so annoying. I just want video, lots and lots of video clips showing everything going on.
Here's some actual news:
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=RUB&to=EUR&view=2Y
How long to you think Russia can continue? They may destroy the Ukraine, but they are already utterly buggered for decades.
1 RUB = 0.00849987 EUR
Feb 28, 2022, 19:17 UTC
Ukraine holds key ports to Black Sea (and so rest of world)
Theoretically yes, but,because the route out to the med is extremely dangerous it would make any of his navy trying this route very vulnerable.
But then, in the absence of any other warm water ports, he's a bit screwed.
Following on from the BP announcement I see Shell have severed their links with Gazprom.
Re. the various sporting announcements, come on UCI, ban Gazprom and find homes in other teams for the riders.
1 RUB = 0.00849987 EUR
Sadly the graph looks much more impressive than the actual drop which by my calculation (maybe someone would like to check) is about 20% in the last week.
On what basis are you making that claim? Ukrainian social media pumping out its own propaganda about Russian losses, or the objective fact that in less than a week Russia hasn’t defeated Ukraine?
On the basis that just about every commentator and analyst who isn't Russian has assessed that their progress has been slower and the resistance stronger than they expected and that they have underestimated the logistic effort needed to maintain momentum.
Not just Ukrainian sources but, UK defence intelligence, RUSI, International Institute for strategic studies, Al Jazeera, Reuters etc. You are correct in that it is early days and I'm sure the Russians will learn from some of their mistakes and throw greater effort at it, but it is undeniable that things haven't gone the way they planned so far.
They were making a big deal about the Russian Soldiers having their mobile phones taken from them before they were sent out. I thought that was standard practice whilst in the “warzone” for any soldier from any country ?
BBC reporter was in Eastern Siberia earlier, having gone out to a village there specifically to speak to extended family and friends of a Russian soldier who was feeding plenty of information to his family about how frightened he was, that he didn't know why they were in the Ukraine fighting a battle, that they thought they were still in Russia on an exercise until told that they weren't. Mention of Ukrainian people telling them to eff off, throwing themselves in front of their tanks etc... Morale amongst Russian soldiers, those that haven't been bombed back to the dark ages by drone strikes, is not good!
Just think about it... Whilst not every family will have a son in the military, most towns or villages are going to have someone in the military, and any worry fed back to their families and friends by worried soldiers on the front line is going to spread like wildfire!
Even if it is propaganda. Who gives a **** if it helps them defend their country.their families and their nation from the invaders.
War is ALL about propaganda... Winning hearts and minds. Sometimes that means feeding misinformation deliberately, sometimes it means being deliberately honest. It's about picking the information that you share, and how you share it, very carefully... Sometimes, less is more (Putin's approach), but sometimes being up front and honest about what is going on (can't verify exact figures, but this seems to be Zelensky's approach) makes more sense.
Cometh the hour, cometh the man as the saying goes... 3 weeks ago, Zelensky supposedly had a popularity rating of around 30% in Ukraine, now this figure is supposedly around 90%! He was ridiculed for being a comedian and TV star with no experience of politics, but maybe that's exactly what is needed right now as he has a clear grasp on how to galvanise his population and is doing an exceptional job of improving morale by showing his passion for the cause.
In stark contrast, is Putin's stoicism and belligerent "Cold war-esque" approach (hardly surprising, given his roots) that cedes nothing to anyone, seemingly even his closest advisors, going to be his ultimate undoing...?
CZ – go easy; Father Christmas definitely exists.
Oops, sorry, forgetting the children, now edited! ☺️ 🧑🎄
Russia continues to make outlandish threats to the rest of the world! Putin risks making his country a global pariah, not the great reconstruction of the Russian Empire, with himself as Czar that he really imagines.
Theoretically yes, but,because the route out to the med is extremely dangerous it would make any of his navy trying this route very vulnerable.
But then, in the absence of any other warm water ports, he’s a bit screwed.
I believe Turkey has already closed off that route, as it controls the Bosporus.
Not looking too good against the dollar, either:
1 RUB = 0.00966702 USD
Feb 28, 2022, 19:24 UTC
Regarding dyna-ti's post on the previous page - China explicitly said today that they are not allies of Russia:
China and Russia are comprehensive strategic partners of coordination. China-Russia relations are based on non-alliance, non-confrontation and non-targeting of third countries," ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said.
However we will indeed need to have a plan to move on from this, how Russia could exist in a new order (if it chooses not to go down the global pariah route) and how we might be able to offer him a way to climb down if that would be possible.
Mike Martin has some good threads on this -
https://mobile.twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1497840961208176647
It's the normal people in both Russia and Ukraine who will suffer.
Imagine what a 20% or more hike would do to your mortgage interest repayments?
China-Russia relations are based on non-alliance, non-confrontation and non-targeting of third countries,” ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said.
I guess that China, like Russia, regards Taiwan the same way that Russia regards Ukraine, not as a separate independent country, so no hypocrisy there, then… 🤷♀️
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1498380314212765704
https://twitter.com/kelly2277/status/1498375674557612036
I guess that China, like Russia, regards Taiwan the same way that Russia regards Ukraine, not as a separate independent country, so no hypocrisy there, then…
This feels like China getting Russia to a dry run for their little reclamation of Chinese 'territory'. Might think twice about it now.
I thought China needed to be pals with Russia so they can get hold of their technology and make knock-offs of it?
I guess that China, like Russia, regards Taiwan the same way that Russia regards Ukraine, not as a separate independent country, so no hypocrisy there, then…
I think you are failing to see the bigger picture here.
Why would China dirty thier hands with this by choosing a 'side'?
They can quite happily sit back and observe how the situation evolves before even thinking about how to comment on it.
I'm impressed that some posters have direct access inside the Russian army and know exactly what they're thinking and feeling. 🙄
Why would China dirty their hands with this by choosing a ‘side’?
Hasn’t stopped them in the past, but they rely so very much on the West for significant amounts of trade, both in and out of the country.
Here’s a Bellingcat article that’s worth a read, showing the use of cluster munitions against civilian populations, and the indiscriminate use of missiles agains civilian locations.
I’m impressed that some posters have direct access inside the Russian army and know exactly what they’re thinking and feeling.
I think you’ll find that there are people out there with knowledge of the Russian Army, and plenty with knowledge of Russian psychology, who are writing informed articles, and don’t forget, the Russian Army is mostly conscripts, who’re pretty poorly paid, fighting against an opponent who has nothing to lose, and, as I’ve pointed out previously, as with the Finns during the Winter War, and also in Afghanistan, will absolutely fight to the death against an intruder wanting to take their country, their homeland, away from them for purely vainglorious reasons.