EU and NATO member Romania is still mired in political problems ^^. The President appointed PM-designate Adrian Vestea to form a pro-EU Government; unfortunately, while Parliament agreed with Vestea's choice of coalition cabinet they weren't as impressed with Vestea as PM, so the whole process begins again.
If it fails for a second time then the President can go to elections, which is a huge problem for Ukraine. A minority coalition seems to be a favourable bet rather than early elections.
"(Opposition right-wing Alliance for Uniting Romanians) AUR, which has 38% to 41% in opinion surveys, opposes aid for Kyiv. It also voted against a law to shoot down Russian drones that breach national airspace near the border with Ukraine, and has been a vocal critic of the European Union, including its SAFE rearmament initiative."
http://www.reuters.com/world/romanias-nominated-pm-asks-parliaments-vote-confidence-without-clear-majority-2026-06-22/
If your estimate of 250kg is correct then I don't think that Ukraine has a drone that's both that big and that accurate.
I think that we're looking more at a guided glide bomb or a cruise missile. Ukraine has reportedly already used the AGM-188A Rusty Dagger, a US hybrid glide bomb/missile developed exclusively for Ukraine with a 230kg warhead, is that near enough?
Yep, 230kgs will do it. Like you, I didn't think these were in Ukraine yet, but that article you link has a X post that seems to suggest they already are (from June 6th at least and probs before that) which I why I wondered if they'd developed a large drone. UAF has any number of aircraft you could launch this from. This is going to give Russia a massive headache.
626 vehicles and fuel tanks destroyed yesterday- a new record - Russian logistics are taking a beating 👍
626 vehicles and fuel tanks destroyed yesterday- a new record - Russian logistics are taking a beating 👍
And of course that is permanent destruction - those tankers have to be replaced from either pulling them from elsewhere, or build / import new ones. The previous pages here had an article about the 'just in time' and 'bare minimum' approach that Russia takes to such things, so there are barely enough already. If they keep this up, very little fuel will be delivered anywhere in Russia, let alone near Ukraine border....
626 vehicles and fuel tanks destroyed yesterday- a new record - Russian logistics are taking a beating 👍
And of course that is permanent destruction
Absolutely. It gets worse because "a typical russian motorized rifle regiment requires approximately 500 vehicles to support its 2,100 personnel." Three days at that rate is four regiments' worth.
Heavy vehicles tend to run on diesel, but armoured vehicles aren't being used in great numbers so there probably is fuel available because diesel is over-produced in Russia for export (now banned), unlike petrol which the motorbikes, light vehicles and generators tend be on.
There are complicating factors that I can't begin to guess at. To get beyond a tankful round trip, Russian forces must have fuel dumps, which is probably why fuel forecourts are occasionally targetted. Those dumps need to refilled, which cuts down on the already scarce lorry trips for other logistics. The bottom line is that the more remote outposts will eventually run out of stuff, but have I missed something?
(Ukrainian Joint Forces Task Force Spokesperson Colonel Viktor) Trehubov assessed that Russian forces are intensifying their attacks in the area at the peak of their summer campaign in order to advance before their issues with supplies, including fuel and lubricants, start to generate more detrimental effects.
We also have the question of numbers. If you assume 100% trucks in a region, then cut that by 10% per day damaged/destroyed, within a week you are below 50% truck fleet size. I don't know how big the % is per day, but I'll let you do the numbers on your chosen attrition rate (10% was the easy one 😀).
- those tankers have to be replaced from either pulling them from elsewhere, or build / import new ones. The previous pages here had an article about the 'just in time' and 'bare minimum' approach that Russia takes to such things, so there are barely enough already. If they keep this up, very little fuel will be delivered anywhere in Russia, let alone near Ukraine border....
Building new trucks will be a problem. Major manufacturer KamAz had 20% of the market in 2023, but by the end of 2024 had posted financial losses of $284mn and a 22% reduction in sales. This will include both the light truck and the heavy truck market, with everything in between.
This decline has continued with KamAz on a four-day week for a spell in 2025 and again from early 2026
"Sales of heavy trucks in Russia plummeted by approximately 40% in January and February 2026 compared to the same period the previous year. The primary reason for this decline is the Central Bank’s stringent monetary policies, which have made loans and leasing virtually inaccessible."
"Despite holding 37% of the heavy-duty truck market, Kamaz faces stiff competition from Chinese manufacturers FAW and Sitrak, which together control 21% of the market. In the medium-duty truck segment, brands like JAC, Dongfeng, and Foton hold around 20% of the market, offering better specifications at lower prices. Kamaz’s management does not anticipate profits in 2026, with expectations focused solely on breaking even."
Buying in commercial haulage services will be fraught with older vehicles because of the problems for companies of getting reasonable loan rates. New Russian-built vehicles will be difficult to find because, apart from anything else, Russia has a shortage of blue-collar workers.
The only short-term option would be to buy in from China and effectively assign Russian manufacturing to the scrapheap.
The whole question of truck logistics is quite interesting; with drone dominance, how does NATO move stuff eastward?
Funnily enough Exercise Fighter Lion (June/July '26), involves 7000 Dutch troops in northern Germany working with drone netting over highways. There's a video of other counter-drone tech (June '26), again starring the Dutch linked separately as well.
Apart from it being too hot for erecting netting, what do the ex-forces folk think?
http://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-23-2026/
http://en.defence-ua.com/industries/russian_armys_biggest_truck_supplier_kamaz_declared_multi_million_financial_losses-12417.html
http://united24media.com/latest-news/russias-automakers-kamaz-and-avtovaz-struggling-with-financial-losses-and-market-decline-17794
http://united24media.com/world/7000-dutch-soldiers-rehearse-stopping-russia-style-attack-in-germany-20094
http://www.nato.int/en/multimedia/multimedia/videos/2026/06/15/nato-allies-and-industry-test-counter-drone-technologies
I forgot this earlier; the latest trio from Stefan Korshak.
Just to clarify, although Anton Milaev built a life in Ukraine he was captured by Ukraine's forces fighting for Russia.
It's worth reading to the end; I found the third part to be particularly informative
June 19 2026 — Day 1,576a — Kyiv Smashed, Moscow Burned, Parsing Drone Operations
http://stefankorshak.substack.com/p/june-19-2026-day-1576a-kyiv-smashed
June 19 2026 — Day 1,576b — continued
http://stefankorshak.substack.com/p/june-19-2026-day-1576b-continued
June 19 2026 — Day 1,576c — continued
http://stefankorshak.substack.com/p/june-19-2026-day-1576c-continued
President Lukashenko blinked. He values his Presidency too much,
Zelensky stated on June 24 that the Russian-installed signal repeaters on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, which allow Russian forces to fly guided drones at extended ranges deep into western Ukraine, have not been operational since June 22.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on June 23, citing Russian and European officials, that the Kremlin is pressuring Lukashenko to allow Russia to more actively leverage Belarus in its war effort against Ukraine.
Lukashenko continues to stall and deflect the Kremlin’s intensified attempts to drag Belarus into the war in Ukraine while maintaining relatively neutral rhetoric towards Ukraine.
http://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-24-2026/
Russia has been buying gasoline in from Belarus and China since 2025 and now India and Kazakhstan, where they've retained an option since 2024.
http://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/gasoline-prices-in-russia-hit-20-year-record-1782326169.html
http://www.kyivpost.com/post/78905
Western reporting and Ukrainian sources provided battle damage assessments (BDA) of recent Ukrainian strikes against Russian military assets in Russia. Reuters reported on June 24 that Ukraine’s June 16 and 18 strikes against the Kapotnya Oil Refinery in Moscow City forced the refinery to halt operations until the end of 2026, with at least six months of repair work. Zelensky reported on June 24 that recent Ukrainian strikes against the Russian Baltic Fleet arsenal near St. Petersburg, Leningrad Oblast, destroyed 6,000 tons of ammunition.
The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed on June 24 that Ukraine’s June 22 strikes against the Dubna Space Communications Center in Dubna, Moscow Oblast, damaged the hardware-module complex of the 32-meter MARK-IV antenna and technical and administrative buildings used for satellite communications, a nearby technical building, and the main production-administrative hardware-software building. Zelensky added that Russian forces are relocating air defense systems from Russian regions to Moscow and the Kerch Bridge to defend against Ukrainian strikes.
http://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-24-2026/
Russia is moving air defence (AD) systems away from the frontlines and nearer to their political elite,
(President Zelensky) said Russia has moved hundreds of S-400, S-500 and Pantsir launchers to the Moscow region, while nearly 90 air defense launchers have been transferred to Valdai*.
“They are protecting their power, protecting the source of this war,” he said.
The redeployment, in Kyiv’s view, shows that Russia’s leadership is prioritizing politically sensitive sites while leaving other areas more exposed.
(*Valdai is a forest and lake area, with part recognised by UNESCO, where President Putin and other oligarchs have homes.
It's also home to the Valdai Discussion Club, an international think-tank, described by US Prof Daniel W. Drezner as "a sw4nky high-level conference put on by the Russian elite" (Wikipedia). - 4 the swear filter is tiresome!
Other AD systems have been moved to Kerch where Ukraine has been striking them along with Crimea)
http://www.kyivpost.com/post/78918
Russia seems to have reinforced Ukraine's case with the IMF by attacking Kyiv even as its auditors were poring over the books.
"Moscow has called for foreign nationals and diplomats to leave Kyiv "as soon as possible" and warned citizens to stay away from administrative and military buildings."
The IMF has postponed its insistence on various economic and financial hoops that need to be met before it makes a $8.1bn loan
http://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/06/12/pr-26202-ukraine-imf-reaches-agreement-1st-rev-of-eff-arrang-2026-art-iv-consult
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1e22n55zn4o
Russia is attempting to make lawful seizures of its "shadow-fleet" more difficult. Seizures are clearly causing concern in Moscow and they're asking for it to be made legal to turn Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) off. This is considered essential safety data with vessel identity, position, speed and course transmitted, quite apart from identifying ships involved in ecological and other damage.
They're also moving away from flag-hopping, another reason for seizures, to flying the Russian flag.
"Stop abusing AIS data, Russia tells IMO:
Russia’s submission to the regulator calls for tracking data to only be used for safety and navigation
This follows several high-profile seizures and attacks of Russia-linked vessels
But Moscow’s call to legitimise AIS being switched off is unlikely to gain international support""Russia prepares for potential shadow fleet influx to national flag:
Presidential decree would simplify Russian flagging rules, curb disclosure requirements and set quality thresholds for incoming tankers
The shift would position Moscow to absorb parts of the shadow fleet long reliant on fraudulent or weak registries
Move to insulate shadow fleet from sanctions comes amid ramped up seizures from EU and UK"http://www.lloydslist.com/LL1157639/Stop-abusing-AIS-data-Russia-tells-IMO
http://www.lloydslist.com/LL1157629/Russia-prepares-for-potential-shadow-fleet-influx-to-national-flag
Another front that Russia is becoming increasingly strident on is the use of Norway's Svalbard, which is under NATO control but has a Russian-speaking minority community. This pulls Norway and, to a lesser extent, Denmark and the UK in and distracts from Ukraine,
If Russia is hell-bent on securing Bear Gap dominance, then its long-coveted acquisition of Svalbard could be accelerated to complete this task. One way of achieving this would be to continue complaining that Norway is breaching the terms and conditions of the 1920 Svalbard Treaty.
http://theconversation.com/russias-push-to-control-arctic-waterway-presents-europe-with-a-daunting-challenge-284808
Here's an interesting report about the Kerch bridges and their vulnerability to earthquakes due to cut corners during it's construction. A slight tangent to the discussion, I hope normal timba service resumes shortly.
I'm making no claims about its accuracy or impartiality!
