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+1 TJ
There's a groundswell within the US expressing this from the electorate, through GOP Representatives, Senators and now the cabinet. Marco Rubio, as another example, has always been a Ukraine supporter.
There's one person who stills appears reticent...
Article about the future of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant https://thebulletin.org/2025/05/zaporizhzhia-hurdle-or-catalyst-for-a-peace-deal-in-ukraine/
My thoughts are that it's simpler to decommission it and leave the complication out.
Slight hijack.
Latest "proxy" fighter jet dog fight comparison.
India vs Pa-kistan over recent Kashmir terrorists attack.
The whole episode of "dog fight" only lasted about 1hr with around 125 fighter jets from each side.
Pa-kistan: J-10C ($40 million per jet) - All flew home.
India - losses are 3 French 4.5th-generation Rafales ($120 million per jet), Mirage 2000, Mig and 25 drones (drones info from other news).
Rafale Destroyed for the first time in any war.
Both French and US have acknowledge the down of Rafale.
https://www.eurasiantimes.com/as-claims-about-****stan-shooting-down-rafale/
The Pa-kistani foreign minister, Ishaq Dar, told the National Assembly that the J-10C shot down five Indian fighter jets, three of which were Rafales. Pa-kistan has been unable to furnish evidence to back these claims, and the Indian side has not confirmed any losses.
Today's starter for 10.
Will putin pitch up?
The international criminal court arrest warrant in his name might make him a reluctant traveller. Although unfortunately I don't think Turkey is an ICC member.
Putin will be a no show l reckon.
The whole episode of "dog fight" only lasted about 1hr with around 125 fighter jets from each side.
No aircraft crossed any border, they launched long range missiles at each other, so calling it a 'dog fight' is a bit misleading. And for the record, most A2A engagements last seconds, maybe minutes at most. Without knowing the operational aspect - training, pilot error, aircraft function/capability etc etc calling this a 'proxy' or drawing any conclusion other than India lost some planes - all be very capable ones, is premature.
Of course Putin won't show up.
My money's on No as well. Like Trump, he's got to be calling the shots, and as this is currently being seen as Zelensky's initiative, Putin is unlikely to want to be seen as 'brought to the table' by the other side.
Hopefully I'm wrong.
No aircraft crossed any border, they launched long range missiles at each other, so calling it a 'dog fight' is a bit misleading.
+1
There isn't any evidence of ****stan's claims. The only images of "wreckage" circulating are aircraft drop tanks (that are designed to be errr, dropped) and a spent French missile.
We'll see what is evidenced in the future, meantime, there will be a lot of interested manufacturers digging into this
Hopefully I'm wrong.
I hope he doesn't show up. If he does, it will only be to agree to a peace deal he has no intention of keeping. He doesn't want peace, and the sooner his actions demonstrate that to Trump, the better,
Russia has denied shooting down the Malaysian airliner in 2014, killing 298 people, despite a final ruling by the UN on Monday https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-rejects-biased-un-ruling-downed-malaysian-airliner-2025-05-13/
Russia has misrepresented a 2022 order signed by President Zelensky as preventing negotiation for some time now.
Zelensky is batting Russia's objections back to them by agreeing to meet in person, which is designed to highlight that it's Russia dragging their feet.
The problem is that President Trump is deaf to any reasonable representation from Ukraine, so on that basis alone it's extremely doubtful that President Putin will turn up
No aircraft crossed any border, they launched long range missiles at each other, so calling it a 'dog fight' is a bit misleading.
+1
There isn't any evidence of ****stan's claims. The only images of "wreckage" circulating are aircraft drop tanks (that are designed to be errr, dropped) and a spent French missile.
We'll see what is evidenced in the future, meantime, there will be a lot of interested manufacturers digging into this
The given source has a rep for, at best, reporting factually to a "mixed" standard. Some of it is credible, some of it is bobbins/unproven and designed to drive traffic.
the DM is repostin the chinese news more or less verbatim, I havent found a good source for the rafale shoot down, has anyone else?
The problem is that President Trump is deaf to any reasonable representation from Ukraine, so on that basis alone it's extremely doubtful that President Putin will turn up
I think that worm is beginning to turn with the rare earth deal being signed and some of Trump's recent social media postings. If Zelensky is sitting there shrugging his shoulders with Putin a no-show Trump's not going to be impressed, he does seem to me to want this to end, even if that's really only because he sees it as a route to a Nobel Peace Prize, (it won't be).
Peskov confirmed Putin won't be travelling to Turkey.
Some change seems likely. We'll see whether pressure is applied by the US either toward Europe or Russia.
Friedrich Merz announced during a Europe forum organised by German broadcaster WDR: "There are no longer any restrictions on the range of weapons delivered to Ukraine, neither by the UK, France, nor us. There are no restrictions by the US either."
The SCALP-EG/Storm Shadow pot must be running low now and nothing positive is forthcoming on Germany's Taurus, however, Germany is pursuing a policy of information security under its new government.
The first public announcement may be a Taurus strike, we'll see
And back around to another analysis of the NordStream pipeline explosions.
This one accords with what many on here thought in 2022. The Aug '24 issue of an arrest warrant by Germany seemed to point back at Ukraine, but this newer report says,
...we assess as highly improbable the theory that the United States military (with help from the Norwegian military) was to blame for the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 sabotage.
• Furthermore, we assess as improbable that a group of Ukrainian commandos operating from a rental sailboat was behind the destruction of the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines.• Moreover, we assess as probable that the Russian Federation was involved in the Nord Stream sabotage incidents.
• We have a moderate level of confidence in these three judgements. A wide range of open questions regarding the Nord Stream incidents that we identify in this report preclude us from increasing beyond ‘probable’ the judgement of the Russian Federation’s potential role in the incident and likewise cannot decrease beyond ‘improbable’ for the ‘pro-Ukraine rental sailboat’
or beyond ‘highly improbable’ for the ‘United States and Norway’ theories.• We note that as of the writing of this report volume, public attribution for the culpability of the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 sabotage incidents has still not been made by investigators in any jurisdiction of the Transatlantic community.
UNDERWATER MAYHEM: Countering Threats to Energy and Critical Infrastructure Across the NATO Alliance and Beyond Volume 01
BENJAMIN L. SCHMITT
MICHAŁ KURTYKA
ALAN RILEYUniversity of Pennsylvania May 2025 (Google the document, the link is complex)
The same report also discusses other sabotage case studies, hybrid warfare, etc. It's worth a read
"What Vladimir Putin doesn’t realize is that if it weren’t for me, lots of really bad things would have already happened to Russia, and I mean REALLY BAD. He’s playing with fire!," Trump said in a post on Truth Social.
With his frustration increasing, Trump has lashed out at the Russian president as Moscow has hit Ukraine with some of the three-year-old war's deadliest drone and missile attacks while not moving forward on ceasefire efforts.
But the cheerleading for beleaguered Ukraine wasn’t trending or scaring off bully Putin, said critics in the blogosphere.
“Presenting The Latest US Strategy to Counter ‘Russian Aggression,’ ” a snarky blogger posted on zerohedge.com. “#Selfies!”
The president, who prides himself on having friendly relations with Putin, did not elaborate. Top Russian security official Dmitry Medvedev dismissed Trump's criticism.
Critics said the photo from America’s chief diplomatic perch was embarrassing.
“No wonder Putin covers his mouth when speaking to Obama, perhaps to hide his laugh?” wrote another blogger.
“How flippin’ sad has the USA become?” wondered a third critic.
Okay, you'll have spotted that it's a mash-up of 2014 President Obama and 2025 President Trump social media posts with commentary from contemporary media sources:
https://nypost.com/2014/03/28/uproar-over-dcs-jokey-selfie-support-for-ukraine/
https://www.reuters.com/world/ukrainian-governor-says-russian-forces-capture-four-villages-sumy-2025-05-26/
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-is-playing-with-fire-trump-says-2025-05-27/
It's interesting in that it's a lesson in the importance of history and it's a lesson that President Biden learnt when he was Obama's VP back in 2014.
Biden was something of a "hawk" in 2014 and wanted Russia to “pay in blood and money” for invading Crimea, but as VP he had to follow Obama's policy.
The failure of that social media campaign and the 2017 success of President Trump in supplying Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine doubtless added to Biden's later decisions as President to arm Ukraine.
"What Vladimir Putin doesn’t realize is that if it weren’t for me, lots of really bad things would have already happened to Russia, and I mean REALLY BAD. He’s playing with fire!,"
President Trump is protecting Russia as part of a move designed to "dilute ties" between Russia and China that is reminiscent of Nixon's efforts to split China from Russia, hence the "Reverse Nixon".
If successful, it would also present opportunities for US businesses now and in the future, but I won't be commenting on the business aspect.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio mapped out a strategy for managing Russia’s close relationship with China, saying Washington wants to dilute ties without sowing division between the nuclear-armed neighbors. https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/02/27/bloomberg-rubio-says-us-cant-let-russia-become-chinas-junior-partner/
The problem with this strategy is that the conditions that existed in the 1960s that evolved into a bust-up between China and Russia, culminating in border confrontations in 1969, don't exist now. It's noteworthy that 1960s China was still testing and developing nuclear weapons and they didn't have that military capability.
The evidence is very firmly that China and Russia are closer than ever today, both have developed large nuclear armouries and Rubio went on to say,
“I don’t know if we’ll ever be successful completely at peeling them off of a relationship with the Chinese,” referring to Russia. “I also don’t think having China and Russia at each other’s neck is good for global stability because they’re both nuclear powers.” https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/02/27/bloomberg-rubio-says-us-cant-let-russia-become-chinas-junior-partner/
With his popularity falling, the US economy downgraded by rating agencies and the US Courts beginning to push back on his policies, Trump is going to have to look at ways to boost his popularity for the mid-terms.
Let's see what he chooses for Ukraine
Given how everyone was clamouring for Ukraine to have the F16 we don't seem to hear much about it's performance.
We have endless pictures of drones blowing up tanks but not much in the way of Top Gun shoot outs.
That was never going to be the case with the restrictions on US weapon systems and where they could strike targets.
Modern fighter aircraft don't go "Top Gun" if it can be avoided, they'll fire missiles beyond visual range (BVR) as demonstrated by India and ****stan recently.
F16 has been successful in shooting cruise missiles and drones down over Ukraine, but you'll find that not everyone was clamouring for them. They're more of a peacetime patrol platform in Ukraine's circumstances
Bloomberg News reported in July 2024 that Russia had over-produced crude oil during the first six months of 2024. Iraq and Kazakhstan also over-produced and none had compensated under OPEC+ agreements by lowering production in subsequent months.
Reuters reported in March 2025 that OPEC+ had decided to increase output levels across the organisation from April because members sticking to the agreement were in effect being penalised.
That production increase was the first agreed since 2022.
The Kyiv Independent reports this week that OPEC+ will continue the production increase into July driving crude oil prices to a four-year low. This changes the OPEC+ approach of curbing output to maintain high oil prices.
This is beginning to hurt Russia who "reportedly proposed pausing the increases but was overruled."
Top Russian grade Urals crude oil has stayed below $60 per barrel since the beginning of April after the OPEC+ announcement; it had previously peaked around $80 in July '24.
$60 is the current G7/EU pricecap level for access to western insurance, etc, and the EU is now considering lowering that pricecap further.
Aha - I wondered why Saudi increased their oil production.
News coming in of Ukraine successfully hitting Russian airfields/bombers with rather ingeniously delivered drones hidden in trucks.
Reports the Ukraine has attacked 4 Russian strategic bomber bases , one smaller airfield, and one submarine base (reports of a missile carrier hit) using FPV drones hidden in articulated lorries. Initial reports are over 40 strategic bombers destroyed (which if true would be greater than 50% of what Russia has, and not easy to replace as no new ones have been built for 30 years). Furthest away airbase was 5,500kms from Ukraine in Siberia
Ukraine’s Security Service reportedly spent over 18 months preparing Operation “Pavutýna” ("Spiderweb"), which targeted 41 Russian strategic aircraft today. According to Ihor Lachenkov referring to sources within the SBU, FPV drones were first smuggled into Russia, followed by mobile wooden cabins.
Plenty of video of burning Russian bombers on YouTube
Just wow. That's some operation.
That's a pretty audacious and effective operation! Incredible work.
Ingenious. Wouldn't want to be the general who has to tell Putin that a few lorries and sheds have wrecked his long-range bomber fleet.
Apparently one of those Siberian bases was over 5000km from the Ukrainian border! Russia may be the biggest country on earth, but Ukraine has shown them there are no safe spaces within it. How 3 day special military operation going?
and not easy to replace as no new ones have been built for 30 years
I "thought" two new T160s have been built in the last few years?
Ukraine has reported attacks on Russian airfields and naval resources as ^^.
A total of 41 aircraft are known to have been destroyed including a Beriev A-50, which is one of only six left after Ukraine and its sympathisers attacked others in 2023 and 2024.
The A50 is specifically an Airborne Early Warning And Control (AEW&C) aircraft and can detect aircraft at 400 miles and ground targets at half that and will be extremely difficult to replace as well as leaving a big hole in Russian early warning capability. Typically only 40% of an aircraft fleet are airworthy at any time due to maintenance and other repairs.
Other aircraft types destroyed include Tupolev Tu-95, which is a missile and bombing platform in service since the 1950s and destined to keep plodding on for at least 10 more years and Tupolev Tu-22M3, which is a more modern missile and bomb platform in service since the mid-1990s, although based on a 1970s design.
Some details of the operation, including photos of the containerised "mother ships" to be carried on lorries are here https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/06/1/7515065/
That article leads into the timing of the operation, the planning of which was started 18 months ago and may coincide with the US announcement in September 2023 that Ukraine would be supplied with ATACMS missiles. Russia inevitably moved its bomber fleet further east because of this and successful drone attacks by Ukraine on airfields that are further west.
Russia will now be wondering how many other Ukrainian SF units are operating on Russian soil, which will pull Russian resources away from other operations. Russia is doing a lot this, including escorting more of its "shadow fleet" with naval escorts and inevitably their limited AD systems will be moved away from the front-line now as well.
This moves potential Russian missile systems away from Ukraine.
The other aspect of the timing is that it follows Russia's most intense missile attacks on Ukraine's civilian population and is the day before further ceasefire talks in Istanbul, scheduled for 2nd June. Clearly, this wouldn't have been known about 18 months ago, but it will concentrate Russian minds on the ceasefire that they have shown no intention of approaching seriously.
The EU has placed much store in its €800mn "Rearm Europe" fund, which is not new EU money but amended EU budget rules and limited loans allowing member states to run greater budget deficits. In other words states will "be allowed" to spend their own money on something that many don't want, particularly those with government elections expected within months. The EU isn't pushing rearmament, hence the "Coalition of the Willing" including the UK and Norway. Ukraine isn't included because it's the intended recipient and it has export bans on materiel.
This operation counteracts the constant, strong messaging from Russia designed to erode this already weak-willed western alliance supporting Ukraine by making Russian victory seem inevitable. Russia has now lost a chunk of its navy, airforce and armies and the illusion of victory is no longer as assured.
As President Trump might have said to President Zelensky, "You do have the cards"
Just heard on the radio that russia has accused Ukraine of a "terroist attack" re. the ~40 aircraft being hit.
That's really gotta hurt russia, like masivley! Good work.
Apparently, "TACO", Ukraine actually has the cards. And the ingenuity, skill and vision to realise the outcome.
I'm keeping an eye out for a new set of Ukrposhta first day covers...
It'll be an interesting chat in Istanbul tomorrow.
Just heard on the radio that russia has accused Ukraine of a "terroist attack" re. the ~40 aircraft being hit.
Whatever Russia says - opposite is true, confirming a perfect attack on purely military targets. Nevertheless, they'll look for a way to retaliate by blowing up as many children as they can.
As President Trump might have said to President Zelensky, "You do have the cards"
yeah trump doesn't like to back losers and vance and the inner circle of ****stains all seem to hate zelensky, but idolise Putin
but Putin taking a huge L on this one
you have to credit Ukrainian ingenuity and perseverance on this one, theyve beaten the black sea fleet with no navy of their own & destroyed huge chunks of the russian air force without risking a single jet of their own
as for the drone motherships
were getting close to this 
It must take balls the size of Danny Harts to drive through Russia with a lorry packed full of drones then make your escape.
Faircplay to them.
According to Zelenskyy, one of the teams of operatives set up shop next door to the local FSB office. 😀
Loving this, these bombers were routinely being used to bombard Ukrainian civilians as thier range meant they could launch from outside the range of the many many air defence systems Ukraine uses.
Under Putin's current strategy they had been reduced to little more than terror weapons killing grannies.
And as said above, they are basically irreplaceable in the short to medium term.
The attack is also apparently carried out entirely remotely, all the personnel involved were back in Ukraine long before the drones activated.
That's a nice way of pre-empting the inevitable arrests and show trials.
Bloody impressive work on so many levels.
There are already videos of very long lines of trucks waiting to be checked by police.
Double win.... Probably more than just two "wins" from the drive attack, though.
They will also have to spend a fortune building shelters for their bombers and other aircraft and beefing up AD at sites previously thought to be too far away to be under any threat. Probably hundreds of locations. The fact that nowhere in the whole of Russia can now be considered safe from attack creates a massive security and logistical headache. The more AD assets they have to redeploy inside Russia, the more vulnerable their front lines will be.
Where's my violin....?
Wasn't sure if this belongs on this thread or not, but as we are talking about Russias ability to repair/restock, the Germans are a lot more pessimistic.
Appreciate that replacing bombers is much harder than tanks, but in this new age of drone warfare, are bombers still as important?
BBC News - Russia may attack Nato in next four years, German defence chief warns
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62v63gl8rvo
Wasn't sure if this belongs on this thread or not, but as we are talking about Russias ability to repair/restock, the Germans are a lot more pessimistic.
Appreciate that replacing bombers is much harder than tanks, but in this new age of drone warfare, are bombers still as important?
BBC News - Russia may attack Nato in next four years, German defence chief warns
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62v63gl8rvo
Appreciate that replacing bombers is much harder than tanks, but in this new age of drone warfare, are bombers still as important?
They are wreaking havoc against the Ukrainian civilian population and critical infrastructure. As a platform for cruise missiles and glide bombs, released with impunity from well within Russian airspace. Also, many of them are nuclear capable so are (were) an important strategic asset. I get what you mean about drones and they have become incredibly important, but mostly at a tactical level where these bombers are still important at a strategic level.