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Pretty incredible to be reading this.
Ukraine seizing russian territory and infrastructure.
Again, thoughts and prayers to whoever has to wake Putin up during the night to give him the news! 😀
If that doesn’t happen I think we’ll start to see a noticeable shift in Russia’s stance.
Russia biggest worry is loss of equipment that they can't replace in a hurry. They've masses of troops, a more or less endless supply, but they're already well into re-mobilising Soviet era tanks and other battlefield vehicles that are mostly defenceless against modern ManPads, drones and shoulder launched anti-tank weapons . The Black sea fleet has been decimated and the VVS (air force) is practically absent. They can only operate the Ka52 in Russian control airspace for instance, it's totally defenceless when operating in contested areas and they've lost something like 50 or so from a fleet of 200 or so.
I think Putin will be looking for a negotiated way out sooner rather than later. I think the Ukrainians will be wary that it's just stalling while Russia tries to re-mobilise.
I think it’s already happening but under the surface for now
It's been happening since day four when Russia went from victory in three days to digging museum pieces out for refurbishment. Ukraine by comparison has been sent more advanced vehicles and artillery, although it has fewer of both
On the basis that this is largely a land battle, the IISS assessment of armoured vehicle and artillery numbers said 2-3 years (dated Feb), so 18-24 months now https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/military-balance/2024/02/equipment-losses-in-russias-war-on-ukraine-mount/
They’ve masses of troops, a more or less endless supply
Maybe not. We really don't know what the status of Russia's military is.
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1821425212056850642
If they try that this time they will almost certainly destroy a massive source of revenue for the Russian economy
Not as massive as it once was. Russia supplied 40% of the EU's natural gas in 2021, down to 8% in 2023. If you include LNG the numbers are slightly better for Russia.
An associated problem is failing to deliver on commercial contracts and the financial penalties involved in that
The reduction isn't all due to war but Russia has caused itself a huge economic headache
@thols2, I read this NBC article that says the Russians have mobilised 150,000 troops since April. I think there's further recruitment gong on in September also of another 130,000
Re. the potential loss of gas supply to Europe. The only countries that are getting any meaningful volume of Russian gas or other petroleum products are the likes of Hungary, who's leaders maintain sympathies with Putin. I don't reckon the destruction of that terminal would have a massive effect on the important allies resolve.
An associated problem is failing to deliver on commercial contracts and the financial penalties involved in that
They don’t give a shit about that! My employer had to go to arbitration to get a multi billion/year contract with Gazprom cancelled but in reality the only compensation that could be had was the money that they didn't have to pay for gas deliveries which was being kept in reserve until the case was settled.
I read this NBC article that says the Russians have mobilised 150,000 troops since April.
That's a number that the Russian Defense Ministry claims. We really don't know what basis in reality it has. Sure, they will be mobilizing as many as they can but any numbers provided by Russian officials should be taken with a grain of salt.
Re. the potential loss of gas supply to Europe. The only countries that are getting any meaningful volume of Russian gas or other petroleum products are the likes of Hungary, who’s leaders maintain sympathies with Putin. I don’t reckon the destruction of that terminal would have a massive effect on the important allies resolve.
Makes little difference though, it's a global market. If you cut off their supply from Russia they'll just buy it from elsewhere, so the net effect is the same on the rest of the EU.
Also they're in the EU so politically if they're pissed off they'll make life awkward for the rest.
It's naive to think Russia isn't getting around energy sanctions. They're just selling to the Middle east at a cheaper rate to run in their power stations. Who then sells us their own oil/gas at an inflated rate on the global market.
Makes little difference though, it’s a global market.
It will be much more expensive to ship it than to use a pipeline. There may not be sufficient port facilities to handle the volume and you can't build that infrastructure quickly. If Russia can't send gas to Europe, they will have to send it east, but they don't have the pipeline capacity and it will cost them a lot.
It’s naive to think Russia isn’t getting around energy sanctions.
Of course, but it all grits up the gears and make things tougher, more awkward and less profitable for them so it's far from a futile effort.
If Maduro falls in Venezuela then Russia loses a very helpful patsy in the Western Hemisphere and a whole new oil source for the 'West' opens up, we should watch that situation very closely.
i maybe wrong here but i thought the pipeline that supplied europe actually ran through ukraine anyways, so if they wanted to destroy the supply it would be quite easy for them to do so.
maybe as others said its to try and make russia blow it up itself?
still seems very strange
i was sure they were going to move on crimeia given the amount of softening of russian defences that has been going on
As I said above kursk is deeply symbolic in Russia. To have the Ukrainians taking it will boil Putins piss and make him waste troops and resources on trying to get it back.
Bet there's not a lot between Kursk and Moscow (about 350 miles) send a Ukrainian Armoured Division up that road....
I have a feeling there is more to this incursion than the controlling gas to Europe.
Is there anyway that this gas hub can **** up other gas supplies by playing with pressures? Can they send things down the gas line and blow up elsewhere? Does it happen to be the place that controls Moscow's heating?
Are there scores of newly recruited Russian infantry and a major tank repair hub around the gas hub?
Feels like something clever going on....
It might seem a little opportunistic but it pushes back artillery, disrupts supply, diverts resources so on many levels an interesting move. Rather than just waiting to be swamped by endless meat waves I think it's Ukraine mixing up the equation.
Indeed - and without a doubt it is going to stretch the supplies to the Russian front line in Ukraine, perhaps much more than we think if a few of the 'column of tanks on a train' stories are true.
Some sources now saying the UAF have penetrated 30km across the border now. Bearing in mind that their recce, munition dropping and FPV drones have a range of ~25km beyond that, this is a major headache for Russia. Apparently here is a major rail route in the area which runs to Belogrod which is being used to supply RuAF. This is now in drone range. The Ukrainian units seem to be bypassing heavily defended enclaves and just motoring forward. Now they are over the main defensive lines they won't have to worry about minefields so have terrific freedom of movement. It won't last forever, but it will be causing utter mayhem for the Russians. I bet old Vlad is absolutely apoplectic with rage. Bless.
this guy has one interesting angle - that these areas are defended by conscripts, and getting those folks into the front lines is going to cause more trouble for Putin
Thanks, APN is always worth listening to.
With the newly delivered F16s, is it a way of drawing in the aircraft delivering the glide bombs?
Its difficult to imagine the Ukrainians sending so much of limited resources on an apparent suicide mission. The further they move into Russian territory the more difficult the retreat or resupply.
They are heading straight for the nuclear power plant.
surely not, that seems very irresponsible. yes i know russia did it, but that was largely condemned as a ****ing stupid idea....now ukraine are copying the same play? would have thought the various EU contributors would be saying thats really not a great idea....
isw is an interesting read this morning. mentions novel ukr tactics but does not go into any detail on what they are or what the ukr plan maybe.
my guess is its about disruption,maximum chaos and they will be retreating relatively soon once russia starts redeploying. hopefully those redeployements will damage russias ability to keep the meat grinder offence going on the front line
Disrupting the supply lines to Belgorod is a likely aim.
Humiliating Putin, demoralise Russians, make Putin look incompetent
morale Boost for Ukraine
drawing troops away from other areas
forcing Russia to go on the offensive on their own territory- forcing them to continue to take high casualties as their summer offensive has culminated
that’s quite a list!
We don't know the motivations and long term plans for this and that's part of the point. Is this a big raid or a genuine effort to hold turf, nobody knows and the Ukrainian opsec remains tight as always.
Last year Ukraine carried out a widely predicted assault in an area they were expected to try something and ran head first into the nastiest defences possibly in human history.
They're now doing a totally unexpected assault in an area that almost no-one expected them to.
Good to see Ukraine getting its mojo back, the dickhead in the Kremlin must be having kittens.
Pretty extraordinary to see Ukrainian APC's riding over Russian civilian made barricades as the Russian army is currently in it's holibobs or something.
https://twitter.com/alexcmhwee/status/1821353454465397101
^^Suggestions that video is from Donetsk in 2014. This one however was filmed yesterday. It's a little grim, but shows a destroyed Russian column of reinforcements in Kursk Oblast.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1821806855305167241
Oh, that's a pity.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1821826420802293976
Russian Emergency Service: "The situation in the Kursk region is now classified as a federal emergency The region has a federal level of response. This decision was made by the Government Commission for the Prevention and Elimination of Emergency Situations and Ensuring Fire Safety at an extraordinary meeting".
This comment from blokeuptheroad's link really nailed it for me:
What is striking is that scenes of random civilians on their way to work driving by destroyed russian convoys w/russian dead treated w/the same indifference as roadkill was shocking when it was Kyiv in February 2022. 2 years later: the war came home to russia
Ensuring Fire Safety
There is strong evidence that Russia has an issue with this, seemingly so many cigarettes being abandoned in refineries, tank factories, boats and submarines and so much more. Perhaps Russia needs a positive advertising campaign?
So Zelenskiy has pretty much said, "You invaded us, here; have some back" It doesn't appear that there's a military or strategic target for this, but just a political one. Clearly its pissed off Putin, and it demonstrates that his (in)famous red lines amount to naught, and Russia is not as strong as it makes out.
Russia called for the UN to condemn this incursion into it's territory and called a meeting but I haven't found any minutes or outcomes of this.
I can't imagine they will be getting much love from UN members on this one.
Russia called for the UN to condemn this incursion into it’s territory and called a meeting but I haven’t found any minutes or outcomes of this.
Please tell me that this happened and the diplomatic equivalent of a moon happened from all the other delegates?
This one however was filmed yesterday.
Yeah, serious viewer discretion advised, that's a lot of dead Russians. What's more, since it was inside Russia they were probably conscripts with little choice about being there.
Poor buggers, I feel for their families and loved ones but it was Putin's choice to have this war, the blame fundamentally lies with him.
Please tell me that this happened and the diplomatic equivalent of a moon happened from all the other delegates?
I bet half of them just burst out laughing at the absolute hypocrisy of it. I bet even the Russian UN delegate who had to deliver it thought "why me"? when he got his orders from Moscow!
What's happened to the column in blokeuptheroad's video? Some of the trucks look almost undamaged aside from flat tires, but have bodies in the back?
What’s happened to the column in blokeuptheroad’s video? Some of the trucks look almost undamaged aside from flat tires, but have bodies in the back?
HIMARS tungsten ball dispensers most likely. Looks more or less intact but are basically teabags of 1/2" holes.
So that airfield in Lipetsk the Ukrainians have hit - google maps show is with loads of current airframes on it, including felons, I wonder how much materiel the Ukrainians destroyed.
What’s happened to the column in blokeuptheroad’s video? Some of the trucks look almost undamaged aside from flat tires, but have bodies in the back?
I suspect they were hit with FPV drones carrying a small munition (RPG warhead) or a small plastic explosive charge. Enough to trash a soft skinned vehicle like a utility truck and kill anyone in the back, but not cause a lot of damage beyond that.
HIMARS tungsten ball dispensers most likely. Looks more or less intact but are basically teabags of 1/2″ holes.
I seriously doubt it. HIMARS causes a LOT more peripheral damage than that and is a finite resource. The Ukrainians mostly use it for high value targets like S400 launchers and command centres, not a few trucks full of conscripts. The holes are likely caused by the munition casing or ball bearings added to a PE charge, bits of drone, and secondary fragmentation from bits of (probably wooden) truck bed.
The offensive use of drones in Ukraine is massive. Dirt cheap guided weapons fielded en masse. It has genuinely changed the face of modern warfare and has a lot of advanced defence forces suddenly feeling very vulnerable and desperately seeking new tactics and countermeasures for it.
suspect they were hit with FPV drones carrying a small munition
Think it's this.... Ukraine: The Latest podcast said as much.
suspect they were hit with FPV drones carrying a small munition
thanks
HIMARS causes a LOT more peripheral damage than that and is a finite resource.
More to the point, the US has still refused to permit the use of their weapons systems inside Russia and Ukraine so far has been very careful not to cross that line.
The dam seems to be cracking on that though, only yesterday the Bundeswehr Defense Committee confirmed that Ukraine could indeed use their kit inside Russia and we've already seen reports of German APC's and even unconfirmed ones of Leopard II's being used in Kursk.
If Biden wanted to give Vlad one last 'screw you' on his way out of the door, lifting that ban would be a great way to do it.