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Looks like another refinery didnt impliment a non smoking policy ..
Looks like another refinery didnt impliment a non smoking policy ..
Yep.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1819753535291916396
You fixed it?
Fix it again.
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1819732591148257366?t=Yw6sBu-MR2ewoXAucE6zIQ&s=19
Considering Russia only started the war with about 50 S400 batteries, that they still need to cover vast swathes of Russia itself and the borderline obscene cost of each one, each one down is a big deal, esp as we can expect to start seeing the F16's flying missions soon.
Maybe another important 'kick-back' by Ukraine; Ukraine Strikes Deep: Morozovsk Airfield Burns.
It's so *Bleeping* *Bleep* that this war is still ongoing, but stuff like this gives me some hope that Ukraine can prevent what sometimes seems inevitable.
yep seems like it was a big night for ukraine. If they can overwhelm and hit a presumably well defended military airfield then they can pretty much hit any target they choose. Going to have to make Russia pull back those bombers further or risk loosing them
As for the sub, seems symbolic, it was already out of action from a previous attack - I'm sure if it was even close to being operational they would have moved it to a safer port
yep seems like it was a big night for ukraine. If they can overwhelm and hit a presumably well defended military airfield then they can pretty much hit any target they choose. Going to have to make Russia pull back those bombers further or risk loosing them
This is Ukraine's third attack on Morozovsk (April, June previously) and the airfield was still active. I think that we'll have to see what the damage assessment is but the extensive fires indicate that logistics and infra-structure have taken a beating on this occasion. That is likely to close operations more effectively than the earlier attacks which destroyed a total of eight aircraft and damaged a similar number.
As for the sub, seems symbolic, it was already out of action from a previous attack – I’m sure if it was even close to being operational they would have moved it to a safer port
It was originally assessed from external photos to be beyond repair, although Russia was carrying out tests possibly with a view to moving it. Like Morozovsk, it's a vector for attacks on Ukraine's civilian infrastructure and military forces.
The damage to both is also a blow to Russia's economy long-term, who will want to buy Russian AD systems?
The geo-political moves are interesting. JNIM, an al Quaeda group which was involved in attacking Wagner Group troops in Mali^^, has taken two Russian prisoners in Niger this time. They seem to be gold-mining engineers, rather than military https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/al-qaeda-affiliate-says-it-has-taken-two-russians-hostage-niger-2024-08-03/
President Maduro in Venezuela is still taking flak for election rigging, from the US and Europe this time. Russia is heavily involved in this oil and gold-rich country and a defeat here could jeopardise Russian loans and interests https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-european-lawmakers-jointly-condemn-venezuelas-handling-election-2024-08-02/
Ukraine has also dealt a political lesson to Hungary and Slovakia over Russian oil imports. This is a legal non-sanctioned trade and, as with gold and oil^^, swells Russian coffers.
Both Hungary and Slovakia now have access to oil via the JANAF Adriatic pipeline, which they couldn't quickly adapt to in 2022 leading to their exemption from sanctions.
Russia offers them discounts and neither country is a supporter of Ukraine so continue to buy from Russia. The pipeline transits Ukraine, which has now sanctioned Lukoil, who of three Russian suppliers offer the greatest discount, increasing costs to Hungary and Slovakia. They haven't cut supplies as Hungary and Slovakia claim because the other two companies have capacity which complies with EU agreements. I hope that's clear 🙂
China is tightening its export of drone tech from next month due to "western" pressure. China isn't specifying a target for controls but has said, "China's modest expansion of the scope of its drone control this time is an important measure to demonstrate our stance as a responsible major country, to implement global security initiatives, and maintain world peace" https://www.reuters.com/world/china-curbs-exports-drone-related-equipment-amid-us-tech-tensions-2023-07-31/
While Ukraine is emptying the Black Sea of Russian military ships it's continuing to build a stronger navy. Two UK-supplied used minesweepers are waiting and two Ada-class corvettes have been launched in Turkey.
In a massive irony, Ukraine is building a substantial military in anticipation of maintaining a lasting peace in the region, but you don't get to choose your neighbours on the geo-political stage https://www.kyivpost.com/post/36834
I think that this Phillips P O'Brien post is worthwhile, particularly for the third part on Russian advances in Ukraine https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-92-ukraine-strikes
The Washington Post is reporting that F16s are flying in Ukraine but likely to be only 20 or so delivered, plus shortage of pilots so will probably be used for air defense away from the front lines. However, Ukraine is not going to give away any details that help Russia so it's possible they are understating things.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/04/ukraine-f16-fighter-jets-russia-war/
Considering how much Hay Russia made over the few Leopards they destroyed in Summer 2023, I think Ukraine is being very careful with its very precious new toys. Esp right now when their arrival is global news.
That said, I'm sure their entire intelligence community is scouring Russian territory looking for gaps in their air defence network so that they can pull off something impressive.
The transitional government of Mali has now severed diplomatic ties with Ukraine https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/08/5/7468945/
"Transitional" because they haven't held an election and were sanctioned by the The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) as a result. In 2022 ECOWAS lifted sanctions because an election was promised but it still hasn't happened.
In 2023 Russia stepped in, promised to assist with the defence of the third largest gold producer in Africa and sent in their Wagner Group
I still feel that the world hasn't really recognised how Ukrainian vengeance is going to be a global project that's going to go on for years after the war itself is concluded.
The Russian commanders that oversaw the massacres at Bucha and elsewhere will not be allowed to sleep soundly.
Mali is just the start.
10 F16’s confirmed in country 🙂
Amidst all the excitement I think we need to take a moment to appreciate the spacehopper sized balls/ovaries on the men and women who will be flying or working with those F16's.
The planes themselves will heavily outnumbered and going into one of the most heavily contested air spaces in human history.
Beneath them a major industrialised nation's military will be deployed en masse and a disproportionate section of that military will be hell-bent specifically on killing them.
Any location where there is even the faintest rumor that the F16's are operating from it will be immediately blanketed with Russian missiles and Glide Bombs as they try to take them out on the ground and kill the support crews.
That's a level of courage that I can barely comprehend.
Good luck to them all.
Presumably Urkaine will try to employ a bit of mis-direction in regards to where the F16's are based?
I think I read upthread somewhere they have made decoy/fake F16's which makes a lot of sense.
Presumably Urkaine will try to employ a bit of mis-direction in regards to where the F16’s are based?
It's great news that they've started to arrive, but this is where the Saab Grippen would have been a better option. Not tied to a handful of dedicated airfields, but able to be dispersed and relocate often, with a smaller logistical tail and operating from smaller airfields or roads if necessary. However, the Ukrainians are adaptable and resourceful. I'm sure they'll figure a way to both protect these assets and use them to their fullest potential. I really hope so. Slava Ukraini!
Lots of reports, including acknowledgement by Russian sources, that Ukraine has entered Russian territory in Kursk Oblast. Quite a significant incursion apparently with several mechanised brigades involved. It's probably intended to draw Russian forces from elsewhere on the front line, but I should imagine it's also pretty humiliating for the Putin regime to have ground troops on Russian territory in fairly significant numbers. I can't see them planning to stay for too long, but hopefully panicky Russian reinforcements will open up opportunities for Ukraine somewhere else.
Seems like a few Russian jets were taken out in the airfield attack.
Actual Ukrianians or Freedom of Russia Legion troops?
Small detail but if Ukraine is using its actual troops in these incursions its a big deal, it was always Russians before now.
Both apparently, but mainly Ukrainian units.
Is this some sort of game of chase, as in the ruskis tried to gain ground against an enemy with strength in numbers. The inevitable counter attack was so successful they kept on pushing into Russia?
Or a pre planned surprise push with a dedicated target in mind ?
Or a punch on the nose for Putin, escalating the war and forcing Russia to move troops from offensive lines to cover the entire border with enough fire power to be effective against mechanised troops?
Could this be a ploy to regain occupied territory in the event of peace talks? If they have Russian land they have a bargaining tool.
The attack into the Kursk region is difficult to fathom. The advantage is with the defenders in this war and Ukraine is already at a disadvantage in numbers, so it's happening for a pretty good reason
I've had a couple of thoughts, but they don't amount to much more than thoughts, so we'll see...
I'm pretty sure they won't be looking to hold that ground, it will most likely be attacking a specific, immovable target (some sort of supply depot for instance) although there would need to be a good reason not to just shell it or use drones, or maybe to draw Russian forces away from somewhere else.
Or it could just be symbolic/psychological, to show what they can do if they choose to to undermine Russian morale
I'm guessing here, but I wonder if the Russian border around Kursk, Belgorod etc is as well defended as the front line in Donbas, Luhansk etc. I imagine the Russians would be expecting any Ukrainian attack to focus on reclaiming lost territory rather than having the brass neck to attack Mother Russia! Istr the Russian border force not the regular military is responsible for defending it (or parts of it) and are stretched pretty thinly. It's a long border. Maybe the Ukrainians just seized the opportunity to attack a weakly defended part of it and cause a little mayhem.
It's hard to gauge the size of the force as reports are conflicting, but a sizeable combined arms force could wreak havoc in the Russian rear and force large numbers of troops to reinforce it from other parts of the line creating opportunities for Ukraine. I've heard the suggestion a couple of times that they want to hold Russian territory as a bargaining chip in any peace talks. I doubt that, it would be incredibly hard to defend long term and would alienate a lot of international allies. But who knows? The Ukrainians are full of surprises.
sounds like a good dilema to be giving the russians. Attack somewhere not strategically important, but very politically embarassing.
you are russia, do you
a) divert resources from Donbas frontlines, probably halting your attritional offensive
b) divert resources from Crimea, potentially opening up the possibility of a new offensive there
c) allow ukraine to nibble a bit of actual russia, even for a while
a/b seem more likely to me
ofc this is all assuming its not another one of these nuisance 'troll offensives'
I was reading that there is a nuclear power plant in the Kursk region, that writer's theory was that Ukraine want that to attempt to trade for Zaporozhye (so?) Probably easier than retaking Zaporozhye itself, which I expect is quite well defended.
But then I also read that it was only 300 Ukrainians, which doesn't sound like enough
Ukrainecast the other night painted a pretty bleak long term picture saying that a peace deal may ultimately favour Moscow - hope they're wrong.
I also read that it was only 300 Ukrainians
A thousand according to the FT. Although early reports said 2 or more brigades (5-6,000 +) so the numbers are all over the place. Fog of war.
I was reading that there is a nuclear power plant in the Kursk region, that writer’s theory was that Ukraine want that to attempt to trade for Zaporozhye
There is, but I can't imagine they'll reach it. Ukraine are apparently some 10km inside the border. The power station is 60km inside the border. It would seem a very tall order to get that far without a far larger force in the area.
well id read they had targetted a couple of train loads of tanks being delivered to rhe front line. so seems like lots of stories floating about as to the real reason for the incursion. one thing for sure is it wont be a long term postion and they will retreat soon enoung. hopefully it will pull troops from othr front line positions to not be a massive waste
From the BBC:
On Wednesday evening, Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Honcharenko said the Ukrainian army had established control over the Sudzha gas hub - a major gas facility involved in the transit of natural gas from Russia to the EU via Ukraine, which has continued despite the war. It is the only point of entry for Russian gas into the EU.
I expect Ukraine wouldn't want to upset Europe by blowing it up, but maybe that's a bargaining chip.
Time to fix an energy tariff?
I expect Ukraine wouldn’t want to upset Europe by blowing it up, but maybe that’s a bargaining chip
I think you're right; they really wouldn't want to upset Europe with the US elections by no means decided. It's something geographic, along with villages, that you can point to on a map
Nothing to add - except bravo to those knowledgeable regulars here contributing and avoiding it derailing into the typical STW ego driven nonsense like other long time posts.
With hindsight - its been sobering skimming through large parts of the thread.
Slava Ukraini
It's an odd move fo'shure. Even if Ukraine wanted to raid and capture the gas facility, they can't risk it's destruction, despite being a source of Russian gas, presumably there's loss of European support to think of if this supply of gas is disrupted. If it's to divert Russian troops away from other areas; again one of the few advantages Russia has is the amount of troops it can bring to bear in an area, it seems counter productive to mount a raid into Kursk that can so easily be surrounded and re-captured by overwhelming numbers of Russian troops.
One theory I think may be accurate is that like the Russian advances into Ukraine north of Kharkiv, the Ukrainians had intelligence that another was coming into Ukraine from this area, and decided to mount a pre-emptive strike?
Kursk has a very historic position in Russian history, probably the largest tank battle ever.
The problem with attacking the NPPs and gas terminal, whether you are Russian or Ukrainian, is the how
How do I attack this type of infrastructure without damaging something that I really don't want to damage and cause huge consequences that won't be beneficial to my cause?
It's a lot safer for the defenders to use heavy weapons than for the attackers
Ukraine has moved quickly on the gas terminal, but the NPP will be on alert now and it's widely reported now that Russia's National Guard is reinforcing defences there
Ukraine thinks that in 18-24 months the Russian war effort and support for it will decline. This assault is hastening that and making a huge point that plays well politically for them worldwide as well as domestically.
Ukraine has the advantage as defenders of Russian territory, while Russia has to move quickly and doesn't have the luxury of months building up plans, logistics and forces
probably the largest tank battle ever.
'Perfect Tank Country' (in joke) . There was an academic a few years ago upset the Russians when he analysed some Luftwaffe aerial photos that he turned up in a US archive that suggested that the Russians had lost something like 150-200 T34 to the loss of 5 or so German tanks by mid July. The usual narrative focuses primarily on Hitler interfering while the Soviets took on thousands of Nazis tanks and defeated them, when in reality, poor German logistics and supply issues caused by the Dams raid and the Russian meticulously panned defensive strategy were more likely the deciding factors. Propaganda, especially post-war from the Soviets obscuring the detail.
The fun dilemma for Russia is that if the Ukrainians do manage to capture the Sudzha gas hub, how on earth do they dig them out?
Russia's advances so far have all been achieved through the use of vast volumes of fairly inaccurate artillery basically depopulating the area before the Russian troops move in. If they try that this time they will almost certainly destroy a massive source of revenue for the Russian economy.
If they try and dig them out without artillery and glide bombs it will take ages and the casualties will be horrendous.
It could give Russia a really spicy problem.
Ukraine thinks that in 18-24 months the Russian war effort and support for it will decline.
I think it's already happening but under the surface for now, I think that for at least the last year Putin has been betting almost everything on a 2nd Trump term.
If that doesn't happen I think we'll start to see a noticeable shift in Russia's stance.