And obviously Russia will want the bits with the minerals.
From a purely transactional perspective it doesn't matter if you sign a contract to supply minerals with Russia or Ukraine, and it's blindingly obvious to everyone that Trump prefers to deal with Putin than with Zelensky
Posted : 12/03/2025 9:22 am
JD Vance has a cousin who is a former marine.
He went to Ukraine early in 2022 to help train the Ukrainians. He has since been fighting on the front line in several regions.
He is rather cross with the current administration, to put it mildly. Interestingly he said that JD has never asked him about the war, which I find very peculiar, almost as if JD has made his mind up and doesn't want evidence to contradict it....
Article about it in the Independent but I can't get a link to work.
Posted : 12/03/2025 10:17 am
MoreCashThanDash reacted
The acid test really is whether or not Ukraine is prepared to cede territory. Rubio has stated that he wants to see if Ukraine is "prepared to do difficult things" which most folks have interpreted as meaning allowing Russia to retain what it's invaded.
I expect as well as giving up territory, they will have to give up hope of joining NATO, and Zelensky will have to stand down, I very much doubt any deal that is offered is going to mean that Ukraine will be safe, Hopefully Europe will still support their right to independence and historic borders, and not allow a puppet government to replace Zelensky's government, and support their eventual inclusion into NATO (or a European/ROW equivalent if the US leaves).
Posted : 12/03/2025 10:36 am
I guess at this stage the ceasefire doesn't tie Ukraine or Russia into anything concrete just yet. I would guess that talks are based around establishing negotiation boundaries and agreeing to ceasefire on those broad bases. But it's worth noting that agreeing to a ceasefire is a basis for peace negotiations...there's plenty that could fall apart, and I hope Ukraine doesn't have to compromise too much. I think Putin may accept a ceasefire if it doesn't cost him to anything and it makes him look willing to seek peace, but we've no idea of the ceasefire details, which may contain unacceptable things to them.
Yesterday it looked slightly better for Ukraine, but I still fear a sell-out of them. We'll see...
Posted : 12/03/2025 10:58 am
kelvin reacted
The timing of the cease fire offer does give Putin a bit of a dilemma.
The Russians are actually making reasonable progress in pushing the Ukrainians out of Kursk and a pause now will gives Ukraine crucial time to resupply and refresh the forces there whilst they furiously dig in. Meaning that Ukraine will almost certainly still be holding some Russian territory as a card in their hand for future peace negotiations, something Putin was desperate to prevent.
Conversely over the last few weeks the Ukrainians seem to be doing much better in the East and a pause now will almost ensure that the key transport hub of Pokrovsk remains out of Russia's grasp as, again the Ukrainians resupply and dig in.
Cynically I think Putin will agree to the ceasefire as a sop to Trump and to promote allied division by playing the 'see, we're reasonable' card that his useful idiots will pounce on and then find some kind of weaselly excuse to keep fighting in areas where it suits him (namely in Kursk). Betting that Trump won't call him out on it.
I suspect that Trump, Vance and Musk have been taken aback but the vehemence of the fall-out from the White House Zelensky meeting. They assumed that everyone else was as venal as them and were just looking for an excuse to walk away and they were genuinely not expecting the response that came from the rest of the West and even many of their own voters.
Hence reinstating weapons shipments and intel cooperation at the first opportunity.
This all doesn't mean Ukraine is out of the woods in any shape or form but diplomatically Zelensky is in a much stronger position than he was a few weeks back.
Posted : 12/03/2025 11:30 am
I suspect that Trump, Vance and Musk have been taken aback but the vehemence of the fall-out from the White House Zelensky meeting. They assumed that everyone else was as venal as them and were just looking for an excuse to walk away and they were genuinely not expecting the response that came from the rest of the West and even many of their own voters.
I think you credit them with too much self-reflection and empathy! But yes, whatever has brought about a change in their initial position and the US having some alignment with Ukraine again, is a good thing. indeed, the world awaits the next steps...
Posted : 12/03/2025 11:45 am
If he had any empathy he wouldn't have tried to stuff Ukraine in the first place, but he does have a fairly strong strong sense sense of self-preservation and I suspect this may have finally kicked in.
Posted : 12/03/2025 11:58 am
Russia hasn't ever wanted a temporary ceasefire, particularly under terms agreed between the US and Ukraine.
A ceasefire will stop operations just as the ground is hardening after the rains and Ukraine holds a chunk of Russia. This is why Russia is hammering Kursk to the south and east of Sudzha now and will continue to do so while negotiating.
The question is whether their massive counter-offensive in a small area will weaken Russia more quickly; the villages that Russia has retaken in the last couple of days had been pounded to dust by Russian artillery and won't offer much in the way of shelter while Sudzha is only six miles from Ukraine and easily targeted.
Ukraine has committed to more detailed negotiations next week while Russia increasingly demonstrates that it is the roadblock, at least until Kursk is fully under Russian rule. Even then the ceasefire is only temporary
crossed with hatter and faustus
Posted : 12/03/2025 12:01 pm
Heres Laurence Freedman with another angle on why the Russians might have trouble acccepting a ceasefire/peace deal.
TLDW; the territories they have annexed are just rubble now. Completely economically inactive and depopulated. It's going to be very expensive to look after and will be a pain in the arse as it'll require ongoing policing/pacification forever. Without conquering Kiev / getting a puppet goverment installed, it'll be more trouble than its worth
Posted : 12/03/2025 1:33 pm
The timing of the cease fire offer does give Putin a bit of a dilemma.
Dilemma? What dilemma? Just keep progressing. There is nothing to be gained from cease fire other than giving the opponent(s) the opportunity to regroup. It does nothing to the sanction etc and the threat is still there.
Posted : 12/03/2025 4:17 pm
If there is to be a hostage exchange as part of a ceasefire ... can we send chewkw?
Posted : 12/03/2025 4:20 pm
JD Vance has a cousin who is a former marine.
He went to Ukraine early in 2022 to help train the Ukrainians. He has since been fighting on the front line in several regions.
He is rather cross with the current administration, to put it mildly. Interestingly he said that JD has never asked him about the war, which I find very peculiar, almost as if JD has made his mind up and doesn't want evidence to contradict it....
Article about it in the Independent but I can't get a link to work.
Comes up on some YouTube coverage by the ant Trump commentators
Posted : 12/03/2025 4:22 pm
Does anyone think Ukraine is pulling back out of land taken in Russia to sort of help the peace talks? Thus Putin can say he has removed them and a looks like a small victory for him?
I understand that they were making progress anyway, so maybe i am over thinking it.
Posted : 13/03/2025 10:32 am
No because it is taking away Ukraine's most important bargaining chip. And why Russia is so keen to make advances.
Posted : 13/03/2025 10:36 am
The Russian advance in Kursk is probably a result of the US ceasing intelligence sharing. I believe Russian special forces got in behind the Ukrainian front lines by infiltrating via the gas pipeline, and taking them by surprise. With US assistance, they may have seen this coming. Without it, they didn't.
Posted : 13/03/2025 9:18 pm
The details are coming through now....my post above a bit out of date/too late!
It seems they left lost of equipment behind that tells a story in itself.
Posted : 14/03/2025 10:16 am
If Putin can force Ukraine out of Kursk before the talks start it removes a huge bargaining chip that Ukraine currently hold.
Hence why they started throwing everything at it whilst Ukraine's ability to defend was hampered by the UK intelligence freeze.
The flip side of this is that Russia has clearly moved assets out of the Eastern front to throw into Kursk as Ukraine is suddenly making significant progress there.
The logic is similar on both sides; the more land they hold when the firing stops the better the outcome they are likely to see, the clock is ticking.
Posted : 14/03/2025 10:35 am
The worrying that about Kursk is that the Ukrainian forces still fighting are pretty much an enclave in danger of being physically surrounded and supply line (a single road) being cut, not only will they lose some experienced soldiers, those captured can expect the usual Russian treatment, if kept alive at all.
Posted : 14/03/2025 6:00 pm
Reading this article it sounds like Trump may be preemptively warning Putin about the Ukrainians in Kursk
BBC News - US had 'productive' talks with Putin over Ukraine war, Trump says
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce34g2e75zno
Posted : 14/03/2025 6:28 pm
Reading this article it sounds like Trump may be preemptively warning Putin about the Ukrainians in Kursk
BBC News - US had 'productive' talks with Putin over Ukraine war, Trump says
If you believe Ukraine then it concerns me more that President Trump doesn't listen to his own intelligence briefings. On that basis alone he can't be passing anything accurate to Russia 🙂
Trump's social media post also "strongly requested" Putin should spare the lives of Ukrainian troops, whom he described as surrounded by Russian forces, adding it would be a "horrible massacre" not seen since World War Two.
His comments came after Putin said on Thursday that Ukrainian troops in Kursk had been "isolated" and were trying to leave, as Russia ramps up efforts to reclaim the region invaded by Ukraine last year.
But on Friday, Ukraine's armed forces general staff denied the encirclement of its troops, calling it "false and fabricated".
In a statement, it said operations were continuing, with Ukrainian troops having withdrawn and "successfully regrouped" to better defensive positions.
"There is no threat of encirclement of our units," it said. (BBC)
Timelines of Russian actions and the build-up of numbers of attacks suggest that their counter-offensive in Kursk began earlier than either the weapons or intelligence freezes. There's little doubt that Russian actions were helped by the freezes, but Ukraine also messed up a troop rotation in Kursk
Following the meeting, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US would not make foreign policy decisions based on what leaders said on social media or at a news conference, and stressed the "only way to end this war is through a process of negotiations". (BBC)
And the biggest culprit and leader on social media is...
Posted : 15/03/2025 11:33 am
Murray reacted
Important day to find out the intentions of Putin and Trump. Will Trump cave in to Putin's demands and preconditions, and hand Ukraine an impossible 'choice' that may crash any peace of ceasefire potential, allowing Trump to blame Ukraine for failure? Will Putin ultimately say 'no' and what will Trump do then? Will a satisfactory compromise be reached?
I feel fairly pessimistic about it. Feels like Putin still wants all his war aims and will use this period to extract as much as possible from the situation (playing Trump to get favourable outcomes). Trump is desperate for a Nobel peace prize, but has neither the capacity or guile to do so. Ukraine and Europe are hoping for a good outcome, but must be bracing for the worse to happen. What a position to be in, that such a consequential moment rests in the hands of two awful tyrants.
Posted : 18/03/2025 12:42 pm
While he is on the phone ,no doubt he will have ordered a significant attack to happen as a fingers up to the west.
Posted : 18/03/2025 2:42 pm
Reagan and some of the GOP must be rolling in their graves. How do you side with a murderous autocrat against a budding liberal democracy. How does that make America great?
Posted : 18/03/2025 3:37 pm
steveb reacted
Disrespectful, so disrespectful. Probably the most disrespectful thing in all of history. No-one has ever been more disrespectful. Nasty, so nasty....
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c3e4xzd8qq8t?post=asset%3A2ad457ef-f44d-41aa-bb6d-f6954a4b5f71#post
Posted : 18/03/2025 3:51 pm
Trump apparently now wants not just 50% of the minerals, but also USA ownership of Ukrainian powerplants too. It seems he wants to reap the rewards of Russia's invasion to take bits of Ukraine himself .. without using USA troops to take it. He and the USA system are all scumbags for even suggesting this.
How quiet Zelensky has been about it makes me think he has now decided to just play Trump. To just pretend to be in agreement to keep arms etc coming into Ukraine whilst Europe tries to position themselves to fill any gaps.
How any country can trust the USA after all this is impossible - Trump and his whole team are scum, but there are others in US government allowing it to continue who also need to take responsibility.
Posted : 20/03/2025 7:54 am
Guardian covers the power plant here, it's specifically states it's only been mooted for the plant currently occupied by Russian forces.
The Ukrainian leader also said that he and Trump had discussed the US proposal to take ownership of the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in south Ukraine.
“We talked only about one power plant, which is under Russian occupation,” he said.
Posted : 20/03/2025 7:59 am
I think a big thing that has not really been mentioned enough in the Zelenskyy meeting was how Don was saying how much Putin had gone thru the phoney Russian witch hunt that Putin was accused of and the bathroom tap where it all came from.
Obviously more important than actual bombs dropping and sort of invading another country.
Anyway in other news Don got his 5 mins of truce for the news before Russia attacked that thing they said they wouldn’t.
As long as he gets enuff content for the evening news about how great he is he’s a happy chappy 🙁
and then of course the next brain fart is for the US to take ownership of that powerplant that Russia has control of ie stolen,so the official strategy is now to steal from the stealers.
Posted : 20/03/2025 8:36 am
Anyway in other news Don got his 5 mins of truce for the news before Russia attacked that thing they said they wouldn’t.
That'll be overlooked because Russia apologised and said that they missed the "and" in an "immediate ceasefire on all energy and infrastructure".
This whole ceasefire debacle is a play for time while media headlines shout "Russia and Ukraine conduct large prisoner exchange after Putin-Trump call" (Reuters)
That's factually accurate, but it overlooks the fact that Russia and Ukraine are constantly negotiating these exchanges (the last was in Feb) and they are negotiated in third-party countries, such as the UAE, and was probably nothing to do with that phone call
Russia hasn't met any of the conditions discussed between Presidents Trump and Zelensky and has actively pushed back to disadvantage Ukraine. This is a short-term gain for Russia while they regain the Kursk region.
The bonuses are that Ukraine is already asking for weapons supplies from the US (everything so far is Biden-era back orders) while Europe has more time to get its act together.
It's impossible to predict what the US will do next because nothing has moved towards peace, but their actions will set the tone and the "coalition of the willing" had better be prepared
Posted : 20/03/2025 9:27 am
The fact that James Cleverly was doing the rounds this morning sounding knowledgeable and statesmanlike about how Trumps approach was wrong and Putin was playing him shows you just how badly this could go for Ukraine.
Posted : 20/03/2025 11:26 am
Various reports (including some Russian) over the last few hours that Ukraine has crossed the border between Sumy and Belgorod towards the Russian town of Popovka. It sounds fairly small scale from the sporadic reporting so far, but so did the Kursk offensive initially. It will be interesting to see how far they take it and what their aims are.
Posted : 24/03/2025 6:01 pm
The political version of Gareth from the Office, guy is a muppet. I say this from having met the throbber a few times professionally.
Unit just returned from Herrick and he's spinning Sandhurst dits; tone deaf.
James Cleverly
Posted : 24/03/2025 7:13 pm
Russia hasn't met any of the conditions discussed between Presidents Trump and Zelensky and has actively pushed back to disadvantage Ukraine.
Double standard.
Russia meet the conditions? Ukraine/NATO/EU etc has no ground to offer terms. Instead they, Ukraine et al., should be the ones that take the terms. Negotiation? What to negotiate when Ukraine has nothing to create a deadlock?
Look at the middle east, when did the last time the losing sides manage to negotiate their way out? Look at the current situation in Gaza where the American has openly supported the "winning" side with approval of decimating the population, can the losing side negotiate?
Look at the war crime ...
"On 21 November 2024, following an investigation of war crimes and crimes against humanity, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for two senior Israeli officials, Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, and Yoav Gallant, the former Minister of Defense of Israel, alleging responsibility ..." (Wiki)
What did the ICC do instead? Well, they "arrested" (more like kidnap) the former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte (BBC).
Unless there is a deadlock, no negotiation is needed.
This is a long war ...
Posted : 24/03/2025 8:33 pm
It will be interesting to see how far they take it and what their aims are.
To prevent Russia redeploying troops to the East now that the Kursk incursion has been repelled.
Ukraine is actually making steady progress in the East and if they can force Russia to keep 40,000+ troops up in the North defending the border it greatly increases their chances of this continuing.
If the Russian fail to respond to the new Belgorod incursion and the Ukrainians end up advancing further than anticipated then I'm sure they'll say 'thanks very much' and roll with it but I don't think that's the primary motivation for this and we shouldn't see it as a failure if it doesn't end up pushing that far into Russia.
Posted : 25/03/2025 10:10 am
Murray reacted
Hope this is ok. A friend of mine is delivering some humanitarian aid to Kiev this week. Driving down then getting the train back. The aid is supplied by Ukraine Aid but he's funding the travel himself. If anyone wants to chip in for petrol it will be gratefully received.
I received an urgent call for help this week from Aid Ukraine. Consequently I will be driving a Volvo filled with Humanitarian Aid to Kiev leaving tomorrow Wednesday 26th March.
How can friends help?
The Aid Ukraine charity provides the vehicle, insurance and a one way ferry ticket. I have to cover my travel expenses for the journey. Its 1,645 miles from Bristol to Kiev, that's about £300 in fuel. Additionally there will be accommodation and return train tickets and flights too.I've set up a Go Fund Me page for friends that want to contribute to the mission costs. Any surplus will be donated equally to Aid Ukraine and Rotary Club of Bristol Breakfast. Note that GoFundMe specifically exclude fund raising that supports war efforts, even humanitarian work like this. So the fund raiser is called "Road Trip Across Poland" and can be found here:
Posted : 25/03/2025 6:28 pm
Re the ceasefire terms and conditions....
Black Sea shipping to restart and as a trade, russia is asking, sorry, demanding, reconnection to SWIFT amongst other sanctions being lifted.
Just... No!
Katja Kallas got it right a long time ago. russia takes something they didn't have, never backs down, demands the maximum to be appeased and ends up with most of what they stole from others.
What would Thatcher do?
Also, a complete fustercluck in the US re the Signal issue but most of that is for the "Individual 1" thread.
Posted : 26/03/2025 9:40 am
Ukraine is actually making steady progress in the East
There doesn't seem to be much if any reporting to back that statement up. Similar posts have appeared a few times over the last month or so and each time I've only found reference to Ukraine making small gains on tiny bits of the front line buried in masses of reports of grinding russian advances.
Posted : 26/03/2025 9:57 am
Murray reacted
Actually there is Ukraine progress, particularly in the Toretsk and Pokrovsk areas. Russia has culminated in these two vital (for the Russians) areas. Russia is slowly being pushed back.
Posted : 26/03/2025 10:46 am
The black sea ceasefire just seems like a huge win for russia
A ceasefire in a place where Russia has already lost and has stopped trying to contest, meanwhile they get sanctions lifted (just for agriculture, honest 😉 ) and international banking, but can carry on attacking eastern ukraine and bombing the crap out of the rest of the country
Posted : 26/03/2025 11:09 am
Murray reacted
The black sea ceasefire just seems like a huge win for russia
A ceasefire in a place where Russia has already lost and has stopped trying to contest, meanwhile they get sanctions lifted (just for agriculture, honest 😉 ) and international banking, but can carry on attacking eastern ukraine and bombing the crap out of the rest of the country
There isn't a ceasefire in place. There are unilateral declarations that aren't worth whatever they're written on, based on understandings of agreements that are then walked back on.
I said up there somewhere that Russia doesn't want a ceasefire^^, they just want as much of Ukraine with as few sanctions in place as is possible. Ukraine has other thoughts, which is where we are now.
President Putin declared a 30-day ceasefire on Ukraine's energy infrastructure beginning on 18th March, while the US agreement was energy AND infrastructure. DTEK, Ukraine's largest energy company hasn't recorded any strikes since but it's alleged by Ukraine that infrastructure, including energy, has been struck since the declaration
https://kyivindependent.com/putins-ceasefire-is-russia-still-bombing-ukraine-yes/
Everyone agreed that a Black Sea ceasefire should happen to "ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force, and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea". Ukraine wanted it to begin yesterday (25th) but Russia demanded a reduction of sanctions and would agree on a date after that https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/03/25/7504517/
It's pretty obvious that Russia and Ukraine have continued attacks on one another and that certain demands will have to involve European countries, e.g. access to SWIFT banking which is headquartered in Belgium
What you have is a series of announcements that can be made by the US, but which amount to little at the moment. At some point President Trump will either lose interest or his temper, so we'll wait to see what transpires
Posted : 26/03/2025 12:46 pm
Murray reacted
Meanwhile Ukraine will continue to reclaim its territory.
Posted : 26/03/2025 1:46 pm
Kill List on channel 4 10pm tonight (Thursday)
Christo Grozev (Bellingcat) and others hunted by Russia.
Includes the spy ring found in Gt Yarmouth and recently convicted
Posted : 27/03/2025 1:58 pm
How things have changed/deteriorated in the USA picking fights with former close allies and their now pro-Russia stance, it's not unbelievable to imagine/expect USA to give Russia all the military intel on Ukraine and see a very quick defeat.
Alot was made of Finland and Sweden joining NATO, but Putin achieved something better by getting USA more or less at this stage to have left it.
Posted : 28/03/2025 8:07 am
Posted : 08/04/2025 2:28 pm
I suspect they will be mercenaries of somekind rather than officially sanctioned chinese soldiers!
Dilema for Trump, he doesnt like china, but loves putin...
Posted : 08/04/2025 3:52 pm
I also doubt Bejing would be daft enough to allow it's troops to fight in Ukraine in the way North Korea does. There are many Chinese people living in Russia east of the Urals. I'm sure Russian recruiters wouldn't think twice about enticing them to join the Russian army for a wedge of cash. The same way they do with their own rural poor and ethnic minorities to avoid Muscovites sending their sons to the meat grinder. I don't blame Zelensky for using this to his advantage by playing on US Sinophobia, but I doubt it's evidence of official Chinese supply of manpower.
Posted : 08/04/2025 4:27 pm
Some YouTube pundits suggesting the Russians next offensive is expected in the next couple of weeks
Posted : 10/04/2025 4:04 pm
Once they’ve rounded up the donkeys 😉
Posted : 10/04/2025 6:20 pm
At least 31 people killed with a ballistic missile and aimed at civilians by the terrorist state.
Posted : 13/04/2025 12:11 pm
