Forum menu
I feel the same horror, loathing of the perpetrators and empathy for the victims as I do for those in the Crocus theatre attack but they don’t cancel each other out on some horrific score sheet.
That isn't the intention, my apologies. I'll try again in the hope that I don't dig deeper...
We have an harmony of opinion in my first two words.
I think that there is an horrific score sheet, but it contains only the losers. It's important to remember those civilians as a whole, regardless of their origin. They don't cancel out and nobody wins from it.
The only end to this horror is through Russia withdrawing and that involves "angles"
well i wouldnt put it past putin to have ordered it himself to further strengthen his ambitions on destroying ukraine.
he has previous, and clearly has a low value on his own citzens lives
I do not belive for one second ukraine would have sanctioned an attack on inncocent civilians at a concert. they are reliant on the west for support l, and they would know that would be lost if they did such a thing.
ISIS do have form, but again seems strange theyd chose to attack russia when they have a common enemy, and potentially causes a rift with Iran.
My money is on putin did it to push up support for an escalation against ukraine.
After a quick Google across the news networks, if it is ISIS then it is one of a long series of attacks as a result of Russia's interventions in Chechnya, Syria and Afghanistan. Beslan School, St Petersburg Metro and suicide bombings in the past. Reading articles:
"ISIS-K has been fixated on Russia for the past two years, frequently criticising Putin in its propaganda," said Colin Clarke, with the Soufan Center, an independent foreign policy research centre.
Michael Kugelman of the Washington-based Wilson Center said ISIS-K "sees Russia as being complicit in activities that regularly oppress Muslims".
So it doesn't need putin to do this to his own country although as mentioned he has previous form.
If Putin blames Ukraine, I’m not sure what an escalation looks like? Mobilisation? There is already a successful ongoing stealth mobilisation. What else is there?
Of course that mad bastard will use this for his own ends. I don’t imagine many other leaders wouldn’t, including some of those in the west. He has no issue chucking these people’s brothers, sons, nephews and neighbours into the meat grinder for his own ends.
Islamic extremists and Russia are competing for influence in Africa. Possibly some link there?
Islamic extremists and Russia are competing for influence in Africa. Possibly some link there?
russia directly fought ISIS for asad in Syria
Possibly another Russian ship sunk in Sevastopol harbour tonight
meanwhile ISIS have released bodycam footage of the theatre attack, yet Putin & plenty of his useful idiots still blaming Ukraine!
seems like a response to the 90+ missles russia chucked at then thr night before.
esacaltion wise, i dont know what is next for putin, full scale mobilisation, then possibly nastier weapons like more widespread chemcial warefare. maybe attacking and blowing dams....oh no theyve already done that...
Putin's dilemma over ISIS
https://twitter.com/Mylovanov/status/1771492552375468436
https://twitter.com/Mylovanov/status/1771492579562938604
yet Putin & plenty of his useful idiots still blaming Ukraine!
And many on here blaming Putin.
And many on here blaming Putin.
His claim to legitimacy is that he is a strongman who could make Russia secure. He attacked a peaceful neighbour and neglected the threat of Islamic terror groups. Responsibility for Russia's security lies with him and he failed Russia.
Reports coming through of 2 Rapua class ships attacked in Sevastopol last night, as well as the naval base.
And many on here blaming Putin.
The BBC and Ukraine's military intelligence, amongst others, initially said much the same.
The 2002 Dubrovka Theatre siege in Moscow fitted the MO and the murdered Russian former FSB officer, Aleksander Litvinenko, had alleged that the Dubrovka Theatre was an FSB operation.
On Friday, in their live reporting, Gordon Corera of BBC News mentioned the 2002 attack, while Ukrainian military intelligence called it a "planned operation by Moscow" (pages 5 and 3 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-68642036 )
Dmitry Medvedev said, "..."found and ruthlessly destroyed", particularly if they were inspired by "the Kyiv regime"." (page 4 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-68642036 )
By Friday evening it was increasingly apparent that ISIS-K was responsible, hence my response to your post on Saturday, although Russia has continued to angle blame towards Ukraine.
So, were we right? No. Fair do's, Daz
Did properly authoritative sources think the same? Yes
Whats been great (and rare on STW) is this thread has mostly been people sharing information and trying to make sense of what the bloody hell is going on. There hasn't been many people just coming on and being argumentative shits by disagreeing with people for the sake of it without contributing anything of merit.
If you want to be argumentative piss off to one of the politics threads
Thanks @DT78 - completely agree. This thread has stuck to analysis and constructive discussion and is better for it.
If you want to be argumentative piss off to one of the politics threads
You don’t think war is worthy of discussion (political or otherwise)? Yeah let’s just keep score and analyse tactics like it’s a game of footy. 🙄
Evening, been looking into this and weighing my words before I post but I'm now pretty convinced that this was not a false Flag operation and was indeed an ISIS-K terrorist attack.
Sorry DT78. Im' going to pick on your earlier post a bit, nothing personnal but it nicely summed up the arguements.
Well i wouldnt put it past putin to have ordered it himself to further strengthen his ambitions on destroying ukraine.
he has previous, and clearly has a low value on his own citzens lives
True, but as far as Putin is concerned not all Russian lives are equal, it's not educated Muscovites that are being shovelled into the meat grinder in Ukraine, it's disproportionately the poorest inhabitants of the federation's more deprived and far-flung regions.
Past suspected false flags connected to Putin (i.e. the 1999 apartment bombings) targeted poor neighhbourhoods. A theatre full of Moscow's great and good is the precise opposite of this. Whilst details are (and will probably remain) scarce there's a very high chance that government officials or their families will be among the casualties. It's as if ISIS hit a gala performance at the Royal Opera house.
There are far FAR less risky and damaging ways to achieve Putin's objective's than having his own minister's and supporters families gunned down. It makes zero sense to do it this way. Not least because if it ever came out he'd have made some very powerful enemies,
ISIS do have form, but again seems strange theyd chose to attack russia when they have a common enemy, and potentially causes a rift with Iran.
ISIS are basically out to get anyone who isn't a Sunni Muslim, that very much includes Shia muslim governments such as Iran and the Alawite Assad regime in Syria who they see as apostates. Russia throwing it's lot in with the Assads and the horrendous warcrimes they commited against the Sunni population of Syria have not been forgotten. That's without factoring in Chechnya and Russia's support of China who are in the process of forcibly eliminating thier own internal Sunni Muslim minority, namely the Uyghurs.
My money is on putin did it to push up support for an escalation against ukraine.
There's a case here, but if this was planned then surely they would have carried this out before the election so that Putin could exploit the 'rally round the flag' reflex, not just after it.
The response was also shambolic, to best suit Putin's narrrative the heroic Tough, manly Spetsnaz would have ridden to the rescue and gunned down the 'dastardly Ukrainian terrorists' as it was the reponse was disorganised and slow, even the attempts to pin in on Ukraine took a while to find their narrative, this all smacks of a scrabbling panic'ed response and not a planned move.
Then we have the fact that the CIA was already picking us ISIS chatter in advance of this, when they tried to warn their Russian contacts they were basically told to go kick rocks. When the US then went public to warn thier own citizens the Russian media publically scoffed at it.
ISIS have now released livestreamed bodycam footage of the attacks, the 'false flag' narrative makes less sense with every development.
The inconvenience of that truth to the Putin's aims means that they will still do everything they can to pin it on Ukraine though.
Apologies for length, girth etc.
I’m now pretty convinced that this was not a false Flag operation and was indeed an ISIS-K terrorist attack.
ISIS taking responsibility and uploading helmet cam footage from the attack might be clues about who was responsible.
Someone saying they're ISIS will happily take responsibility for an infidel in Great Yarmouth stubbing their toe so whilst a claim of responsibility is certainly a factor its not 'case closed'
Their dispersed and decentralised nature also makes it very hard to pick out which online proclamations are from accounts with actual connections to militant networks on the ground and which are the overexcited rantings of the Jihadi equivalent of a Taylor Swift Stan account.
The posting of the body cam footage by them does strongly suggest it was them behind it though.
+1 for this thread generally being informative, and not argumentative being a good thing. Plenty of discussion being had without the usual STW desperate need for vacuous arguments for the sake of arguments, being dressed up as "challenging views" when they're really anything but and are really just the exact same thing recycled a thousand times.
Even with some of the reactions to events being 'not for me thanks'.
Yeah let’s just keep score and analyse tactics like it’s a game of footy. 🙄
I'm going to take a rest from this
There is a really sad Guardian podcast 'Why are Indian and Nepali men ending up on the front line in Ukraine'. It seems that they are being tricked into going over to Russia for work by 3rd parties but ending up on the front line instead.
And yes, this thread has been quite unique for its lack of argumentitus, please lets keep it that way.
And yes, this thread has been quite unique for its lack of argumentitus
If you go back to page 1, it wasn't always like that. I think the magnitude of how terrible Putin is has finally sunk in and the apologists have given up trying.
Quote "I’m going to take a rest from this"
Please don't. You clearly have a good grasp of some of the elements and that is what I am here for; genuine insight in to this whole sorry/bloody mess.
This whole mad affair has made quite alot of very smart people look daft, from hawkish military analysts to doveish political commentators. Sure, someone folks have got the whole thing right, but they've been scarce.
It's been especially challenging for people like me who started out with a leftish perspective of 'America Bad' (grew up with the 2nd gulf war, went on all the protests etc) and dovish perspective of 'Nukes Bad', militaries do bad things to innocent people. We've been left reeling in a new world where America is the least bad of all the bullies in the playground, and guns and a military is a thing we absolutely need if we don't want someone else's to be used on our families. I expect some will scoff at the naivety, but i'd urge understanding for us! (ofc i would lol). I'll still be voting for parties that'll increase my taxes, but will regretfully, be more willing for those taxes to be spend on the military.
I think the magnitude of how terrible Putin is has finally sunk in and the apologists have given up trying.
Or rather they were bullied off the thread with the use of insults and abuse like 'apologists' and 'appeaser'. If we'd followed the advice of the hawks early on in this thread I'm not sure any of us would be here now. I for one am relieved that cool heads appear to inhabit the White House and NATO HQ, because early on it was looking like we were on a downward spiral to oblivion. It seems pretty obvious now that this situation is not going to solved militarily, so hopefully the diplomats and politicians can figure out a resolution which won't provoke Putin into doing something stupid. As unpalatable as it may be, this isn't going to end with his total defeat and dethronement so we'd best start getting used to that.
This isn't going to end 'till Putin is gone. There is no end game for him... if Ukraine isn't fully captured, the war continues... if Ukraine is fully captured, other countries are next... if Ukraine is fully lost, he'll keep trying to claim it with force. War will not end 'till he has gone... and he'll never lose democratically or step down... so the deaths continue 'till he dies.
I'm not suggesting Russia should be attacked, or that Putin should be taken out, only that we have to accept that military action will continue 'till he dies of natural causes, or he is removed internally. Much more likely the former.
For now, Russia is on a military footing that forces other countries, and not just Ukraine, to do the same. Depressing.
I respectfully disagree with your analysis Daz. Putin doesnt give a damn about negotiation and diplomacy. We tried that and he invaded anyway.
We signed The Budapest Memorandums when Ukraine gave up its nukes. He ignored it and invaded anyway.
Russia only respects strength. He thinks our politicians are weak and will give in. Letting the bully steal your pocket money doesnt mean he will leave you alone, it means he will come back for your lunch.
diplomats and politicians can figure out a resolution which won’t provoke Putin into doing something stupid.
what you are advocating is the cannonical definition of appeasement...
Appeasement is a diplomatic strategy. It means making concessions to an aggressive foreign power in order to avoid war
much as it pains me to say, had we listened to the hawks 10 years ago and created a credible deterrent Ukraine would not have been invaded. I'm not an expert on geopolitics, but I do know a few things about bullies. And giving them a little of what they want does not make them go away
I’m not suggesting Russia should be attacked, or that Putin should be taken out, only that we have to accept that military action will continue ’till he dies of natural causes, or he is removed internally. Much more likely the former.
There was a Russia expert on Radio 4 not long back saying that it is hopelessly naive to think that who or what will replace or follow Putin will be any better. A lot in the Kremlin are even more hardline than Vlad and want an even more confrontational attitude towards the west
it is hopelessly naive to think that who or what will replace or follow Putin will be any better
This. Irrespective of what has gone before, what actual or perceived slight has occurred, countries like Russia, China, North Korea and Iran will forever be committing some form of shithousery. It's in their socio-political DNA.
Although, the absence of Putin may curtail this particular military escapade, which would be a good thing, what could come after could be worse, or at the very least, different.
It seems pretty obvious now that this situation is not going to solved militarily
There has to be a catalyst for negotiation, quite often it is the simple sum attrition. Every body, bullet & tank has a cost. Be that humanitarian, industrial or financial; you simply keep grinding until the cost starts to impact the political or military will or ability to fight, then the negotiations or surrender appears on the table.
The end of war may be brought by political means , but the beginning of the end is always a military one.
It seems pretty obvious now that this situation is not going to solved militarily, so hopefully the diplomats and politicians can figure out a resolution
To you maybe. Putin on the other hand (and the people around him that enable his behaviour) thinks that as long as he feeds the war (and Russia has a total war-economy now) that eventually he'll defeat the Ukrainian forces. There's zero incentive for him to start a negotiation that may see him getting less than the total victory that he thinks is his right.
It's such a shame that the moderators can't ban or suspend people from individual threads.
STW would be a much nicer place to visit and engage with if the people who insist on having a pissing up the wall competition and are never wrong could be put on hold.
It’s been especially challenging for people like me who started out with a leftish perspective of ‘America Bad’ (grew up with the 2nd gulf war, went on all the protests etc) and dovish perspective of ‘Nukes Bad’, militaries do bad things to innocent people. We’ve been left reeling in a new world where America is the least bad of all the bullies in the playground, and guns and a military is a thing we absolutely need if we don’t want someone else’s to be used on our families.
I was adamantly opposed to the 2nd Gulf War, it was so obviously going to be a disaster. However, I'm old enough to remember the end of the Cold War and have no illusions that the USSR was an utterly terrible place. The naive leftist view that "America bad - anti-America good" was always ridiculous and just served to discredit the people who held that view.
I'm up to Ep 4 of Turning Point: The Bomb and the Cold War, which I find frustrating, but an excellent reminder of how terrifying the Cold War was. The extreme anti-communist right in the U.S. over-reacted and alienated countries around the world by backing right-wing dictators who used anti-communism as an excuse for violent repression. However, the Vietnam debacle and the fall of the Shah in Iran did lead to reappraisal, so the 1st Gulf War was a much more restrained, multinational effort. Then the pendulum swung back again and the W. Bush administration overreacted to Islamic terrorism, leading to another debacle. After that, U.S. public opinion has changed and their policies have changed. Key point is that in the U.S., Presidents only serve 8 years maximum and policy reversals are pretty common.
Russia, however, has regressed back to harsh anti-democratic regression and Putin did not learn the lessons of the Cold War. The USSR collapsed because it was harshly repressive and there was no mechanism to reverse failed policies - dissenters were imprisoned so no alternative policy ideas were considered. Putin has reprised that repressive system and there is no mechanism to correct the enormous blunders that he has made. I'm all in with criticizing Vietnam and the 2nd Gulf War, but the left-wing view that anything is better than the U.S. has always been nonsense. Stalinist Russia was worse and Putinist Russia is worse too.
Putin doesnt give a damn about negotiation and diplomacy.
Did I say he did? Putin isn't coming to the negotiating table any time soon, that much is obvious. But giving up on that only ensures greater entrenchment and potential escalation. As we have seen with many other supposedly unsolvable conflicts, the solutions lie in talking to people you don't want to talk to, and considering options which are very unappealing. Putin needs a way out (Biden has said as much himself), and the west needs to figure out what that is.
much as it pains me to say, had we listened to the hawks 10 years ago and created a credible deterrent Ukraine would not have been invaded.
Equally you could argue that had the west not encouraged Ukraine to move towards joining nato and the EU it would never have been invaded. Hindsight is great isn't it? If the hawks had their way 10 years ago all that would have happened is Ukraine being invaded much earlier.
It’s such a shame that the moderators can’t ban or suspend people from individual threads.
STW would be a much nicer place to visit and engage with if the people who insist on having a pissing up the wall competition and are never wrong could be put on hold.
I'm not seeing that on here right now tbh. I'm seeing people voicing differing views, some of which I disagree with but which appear to genuinely, even passionately held. Nothing wrong with that, it's OK to disagree.
Equally you could argue that had the west not encouraged Ukraine to move towards joining nato and the EU it would never have been invaded. Hindsight is great isn’t it? If the hawks had their way 10 years ago all that would have happened is Ukraine being invaded much earlier.
Why can't a sovereign nation choose for itself which trading and defensive alliances it aspires to join, without the threat of invasion from an aggressive neighbour?
STW would be a much nicer place to visit and engage with if the people who insist on having a pissing up the wall competition and are never wrong could be put on hold.
Dissenters and non-conformists must be silenced. Putin would be proud. 🤔
Just watching the Beeb.
The Russian media are absolutely pushing the Ukrainian blame narrative and that's not going to happen without Putin's approval.
I suspect Kyiv is going to have a large uptick in middle/drone attacks directed at civilian targets. 'Cos Putin.
F*** Putin.
Equally you could argue that had the west not encouraged Ukraine to move towards joining nato and the EU
Except they didn't. Ukraine elected a democratic government and rejected being a Russian satellite in favour of closer ties with the EU. That's what Ukraine wanted. Putin does not want a prosperous, democratic Ukraine that is independent of Russia. That's why he invaded. Nobody provoked him, he is an old-school imperialist and wants to resurrect the Russian Empire.
Likewise with NATO. Countries can only join by applying to join, unlike the Warsaw pact. Ukraine is not eligible to join, the NATO thing is just a smokescreen. Putin invaded because he wanted to, not because there was any prospect of Ukraine joining NATO. Ironically, that backfired on him and Sweden and Finland dropped their previous neutrality and applied to join NATO because they saw that NATO was the only guarantee against Russian aggression.
Why can’t a sovereign nation choose for itself which trading and defensive alliances it aspires to join
In a perfect world they would. But it's very much not a perfect world and geopolitics is a complex game which doesn't respect the wishes of populations, politicians or commentators. It's interesting that anyone who doesn't toe the hawkish line is accused of being naive, when in reality all they are doing is pointing out the cold reality of the situation.
Putin needs a way out (Biden has said as much himself), and the west needs to figure out what that is.
putins 'way out' is capturing the whole of Ukraine, completely breaking its culture, replacing all leaders with his appointed puppets, doing what he has done to Nalvavny and any opposition in Russia, across Ukraine .
Failing that he will settle for a temporary stalemate where he keeps all he has captured so far , whilst he re-arms & rebuilds, before launching another war to achieve all of the above, exactly as he did after the 2014 invasion.
Its nuts that you're still giving him the benefit of the doubt on this.
let alone that you think he should dictate to the Ukrainians whether they can join the EU or not and their membership of NATO was never in the cards, for fear of provoking Russia, thanks to Putin's mad war thats now a moot point
History shows that appeasing dictators never works and Putin's own history in Ukraine shows it doubly so.
that's the cold reality of the situation.
and its very naive to think Putin wouldn't do again, exactly what he did after annexing donbass & crimea in 2014