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Have we also done that Kerch bridge was indeed struck by naval drones?
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1691695252971917328?t=TFPI2wRDH7ZimJtaQTj8WQ&s=19
Been touched on numerous times in this thread but more on how Putin's decision to allow criminals out to work for Wagner will haunt Russian society for years to come.
Denmark and Netherlands given the green light from US to send F-16 jets. Potentially as many as 54 jets.
Might Ukr finally get air superiority?
Denmark and Netherlands given the green light from US to send F-16 jets. Potentially as many as 54 jets.
Might Ukr finally get air superiority?
itll be next year before they're ready to use them, even then they wont be s magic bullet, as till have to be wary of russian air defence and prevent them from being targeted by russian cruise missiles whilst on the ground
wow really impressive seeing how fast that tank is moving and firing. lucky there were no mines!
I think I read from some pundit that the F16s would end up replacing lost aircraft rather than being an additional resource and probably wouldnt be used to try and force air superiority. Something to do with not being enough to overwhelm Russias air defences.
Not sure where I read that or if its a fair assessment
Yeah they won't be decisive on their own but it all helps, especially as Russian KA-52's have been key in holding back some of Ukraine's armoured pushes and the F16's will make mincemeat of those if they catch them.
Not my area of expertise, but I think getting air superiority would require knocking out Russia's radar and anti-aircraft missile batteries, which would require anti-radar missiles. It'll depend on the radar and avionics fitted to the F16s as to what missiles they can fire. These will be fairly old models, but the radars will have been updated. They would also need long-range air to air missiles to have any chance of beating the Russian Sukhois and Migs, which have big radars and long-range missiles. I doubt that a couple of squadrons of F16s would be enough to establish air superiority so my guess is that they will just be used defensively, to protect against cruise missiles and to prevent Russia gaining air superiority.
I think Ukraine already have HARM missiles, but they need to be pre-programmed, as while their MiGs/Su's have been retrofitted with the rails to carry and the ability to fire them, their computers can't interact with the missile.
The F-16 computers will be able to, provided they're the correct block (I think - they might all be able to) which means the Ukrainians can then be far more flexible with their sorties. They may even be able to do proper SEAD/DEAD with them, which could allow for local temporary air superiority when they need it for things like offensives. They'll likely make defending easier as well, as they can be called in to blunt Russian offensives in a far more flexible manner.
I'm not an expert - just an enthusiastic amateur, so I stand to be corrected on any/all of that!
Would also depend what defensive aids suite they come equipped with. Without high-end sensors and countermeasures created to defeat the threats they're facing then They're much more vulnerable.
They're often classed at secret and above due to the data contained within which limits the sale/donation to other nations. I don't know if that is a factor here.
I love a bit of Sunday brunch schadenfreude
1 x Russian Backfire bomber destroyed and 1 x damaged in a drone attack 650km from the Ukrainian border. Well played Ukraine!👏
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1693251657734197556?s=20
19 F16 from Denmark, hope to deliver aroound New Year.
Rumour that the Ukrainian's are to be trained on the Saab gripen
Rumour that the Ukrainian’s are to be trained on the Saab gripen
F16 is far more likely IMO. Dozens? Hundreds? of surplus F16 available as compared to 300 Gripen ever built
The Netherlands have just pledged 42(!!) F16'S for Ukraine, their entire fleet.
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1693246014524711269#m
Never forget flight MH17, the Dutch sure as hell haven't.
A few days ago I commented that the F16's wouldn't be enough to swing the balance but with the numbers being pledged now the floodgates have opened.... it all depends on how quickly they can be delivered and crews trained of course.
42 from the Netherlands and 19 from Denmark. That is significant and will hopefully make a big difference. The opening of the floodgates I hope with many more to come.
Have the potential pilots already been training in the F16's?
Oh dear.
Never mind.
Ukraine managed to take out a $30m plane 650km from the border with a $5k drone apparently - and now all those bombers, kit and crew are being moved to the arctic circle to keep them safe.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1693242893098492220?t=UWVWjhRlUqM3yH1pz1_d_g&s=19
.
Russia is supposed to have 63 operational TU-22's
As always with Russia you have to wonder how many of those are actually good to go, especially after 18 months of sanctions and conflict hitting spares and servicing. I'd be shocked if its more than 30.
This was a hugely precious and irreplaceable asset and now they've moved the remaining ones to bases even further away that's going to mean even more wear and tear and servicing every time they use them against Ukraine, which compounds everything further.
A good day's work all round for a Ukr Drone operator, who probably isn't having to buy their own drinks tonight.
There is Ukrainian pilots in Denmark not sure if they have been there for a while or if just arrived to start training though.
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Just seen in Danish news the first pilots arrived Friday in Denmark and have started training now.
The F16s from the Netherlands will hopefully be in service defending Ukraine's airspace well before the 10-year anniversary of Russia shooting down a civilian airliner with nearly 200 of its citizens among the dead. I wonder how future historians will judge the level of appeasement we offered a terrorist state for so long.
Re F16
Numbers aren't clear. Denmark has pledged 19 aircraft: 6 around New Year '24, 8 later in '24, and the rest in '25
NL hasn't specified a number, but they potentially have 42 to pass on
The US won't allow export until pilots are trained
Any empty Russian sabre rattling about this latest development? Or have they just given up 🤷♂️.
I thought I posted this yesterday but it seems to have gone / not posted.
TU-22
I have just read that they are all being moved to the Arctic circle.
The important bit of course is that this means all the maintenance team, spare parts, weapons, old planes they are cannibalising, tool kits, accommodation, admin etc etc are also being moved. Apparently they have a stack of weapons (maybe the ones burning...) just sat outdoors in a long line. All of this is probably moved overland. A huge logistical problem.
It is a proper pain for Russia.
Let us hope they can drone strike a few more bases. Heck, even the fear of a drone strike on any Russian Air Force base must now have everyone on edge and have an impact.
Is it possible these drones are launched from inside Russia?
I am sure they are.
I think the 'maybe an uprising' drive from the Wagner lot proved that moving around Russia is pretty easy.
I guess old Lada is a good cover to get within a few km of a base and off you go...
Whilst NL and Denmark have ‘donated’ the aircraft a lot of the technology remains under US export control, where many of the systems (depending on the variant) can only be maintained/serviced by US contractors. It may well be that some of the functionality of the weapons and communications systems may be disabled.
A couple of Ch4 progs tonight:
9pm, RAF Lossiemouth with some interception of Russian aircraft
10pm Russia's only independent newspaper editor, violent reprisals, etc
US suggesting that citizens should get out of Belarus.
https://by.usembassy.gov/alert-u-s-embassy-minsk-belarus-august-21-2023/
This is quite a remarkable story. The earlier reports suggested that the crew didn't realize where they were until they landed and were greeted by Ukrainians, then they tried to escape and were shot.
https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1694320203625062582
Must've run out of polonium
Another terrible accident. 🤷🏻♂️
Imagine that - what a huge coincidence!
Sane thing's just been reported on 6pm BBC news, with the proviso "If it is confirmed that he was actually on board"
BBC report that the aircraft was shot down by Russian AD
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66599733.amp
The earlier reports suggested that the crew didn’t realize where they were until they landed and were greeted by Ukrainians, then they tried to escape and were shot.
That's a very big (how many hundred km?) mistake to make.
Or is it more Firefox?
