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There is a video knocking around of a pixellated missile being fired with a French backing track, a not-so-subtle message?
Could it be Storm Shadow or its French equivalent SCALP-EG?
And on the subject of cutting logistics, the Chonhar bridge between S. Kherson and Crimea has been struck ... https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-strikes-key-bridge-between-mainland-crimea-russia-appointed-officials-2023-06-22/
Doesn't look like much damage done to the bridge..........
"The" bridge is actually two in parallel. The photos are attributed by the BBC to the Russian-appointed head of the region, Vladimir Saldo, so maybe some economy with the photos??
Doubles the road supply route distance
Bridges seem to be harder to destroy than Id imagined, hey had to use a lot of explosives to take out Kerch one and even that was repairable (eventually)
Its disruptive for the Russians though
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1671790854812450817
Bridges seem to be harder to destroy than Id imagined, hey had to use a lot of explosives to take out Kerch one and even that was repairable (eventually)
My engineering guess would be:
Modern ones are reinforced concrete, even if the explosion turns the concrete to dust you're still left with a mesh of steel holding it all up making the roadway appear unaffected for a photo? I'd not drive anything heavy over it though. Same if you built it from multiple steel girders, it probably takes a lot of energy to burst one so away from the immediate impact they might be relatively unaffected. It's not a Victorian brick arch where if you knock a few bricks out the rest collapses.
It's impossible to know much just from the available photos, but it looks to me like the warhead exploded on the deck of the bridge and punched a hole through the deck. Without seeing the underside of the bridge, we don't know whether it caused any serious structural damage or not.
However, if Ukraine can hit it with one cruise missile, they can hit it with more and the Russians know that. Obvious thing to do is wait until the repair equipment is parked on the bridge, then attack again.
The picture from the BBC news is a bit deceiving, doesn't look like much damage, unlike thols2 picture.
Isn't this exactly what they did to the bridges at Kherson last year over a few days/nights until they collapsed?
Pretty much. But as thols says, once you've demonstrated you can hit a bridge, that by itself can be hugely effective. Even assuming the bridge can be restored to 100% traffic levels quickly and safely (to Russian wartime levels of safety), will they want to? Or will the threat of having it knocked down while it's laden be enough to reduce the volume of stuff they move over? Maybe move more stuff up through armiansk which is much closer to kherson and way less good for getting stuff into Melitopol area (the main roads go towards kherson and the main east-west road is up near the dnipro)
(this being Russia, I suspect they just cover the hole and keep sending stuff over it. In which case, assuming ukraine can reliably do it again, it becomes an intelligence operation more than anything else- when is it best to do it? At a peak traffic moment to cause maximum damage? Just as ukraine starts an operation in the area for maximum short term impact? It doesn't look like the sort of place you leave a retreat option so it doesn't really seem like they'd want to leave it for long unless Russia seriously reduces their use of it)
Did someone accidently reverse instead of going forward?
Did someone accidently reverse instead of going forward?
Allegedly trying to push the MRAP backwards as it was stuck.
I told you the parking space was big enough for 2.
So this bridge does seem to be properly knackered. And seems the supply route from Crimea to the front line is now another 100-150km. And that extended supply route rests on another bridge.
This seems worrying - going so public on a Russian plan to blow up a nuclear power station..
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1671805650106474497?t=db53MuvT6sUdXUJsJ-FMgA&s=19
been worrying about that scenario for weeks
This seems worrying – going so public on a Russian plan to blow up a nuclear power station..
As long ago as October Russia has been laying the ground for this, mining dams, bio-weapons, etc....
"And on Tuesday (25th October 2022), Ukraine's state-owned nuclear energy company, Energoatom, said Russian forces occupying the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant were carrying out "unauthorised construction works" at the plant's dry spent nuclear fuel storage facility."
"It's (Russia) also accused Ukraine of preparing to blow up the Nova Kakhovka dam on the Dnipro River, something that could have equally catastrophic consequences." Well we have an idea who was responsible for that
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63390210
Belarus won't be impressed; they lost 23% of their agricultural land and copped for 70% of the fallout from Chernobyl. The other two most affected countries were Ukraine and Russia. It was considered that Russia had seeded clouds to drop contaminated rain on Belarus before it hit Russia.
I'd like to think that Russia won't be keen to repeat the experience...
Proposed resolution only, but Russia will understand the gravity
"U.S. Senators Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina) and Richard Blumenthal (D-Connecticut) today introduced a resolution to respond...snip"
"snip...(to) the destruction of a nuclear facility, dispersing radioactive contaminates into NATO territory causing significant harm to human life, as an attack on NATO requiring an immediate response, including the implementation of Article V of the North Atlantic Treaty"
Good
Agreed Good - needs to be clearly and definitively said -Mess around with Nukes get article 5 - Appesment here will just lead to further destruction.
Here is the line Cross it and suffer the full weight of arms -
No one wants Armageddon least of all me, but you cannot have a madman willing to do this without recourse
Well I for one welcome our post nuclear apocalypse cockroach / terminator* / nokia 3310 overlords.
*Remember Judgement day is 2029, the A.I. and nuclear apocalypse seem to be coming along nicely on schedule.
Here is the line Cross it and suffer the full weight of arms –
I think there was a discussion earlier in this thread and the suggestion was that NATO/US there basically would be a 'every military installation, resource, navy boat, nuke silo and manufacturer of military equipment in Russia would be dust by sundown without need to use nukes' response ready and waiting for the command.
A very dangerous game of bluff though....
I think there was a discussion earlier in this thread and the suggestion was that NATO/US there basically would be a ‘every military installation, resource, navy boat, nuke silo and manufacturer of military equipment in Russia would be dust by sundown without need to use nukes’ response ready and waiting for the command.
There's a lot of specialist knowledge hiding on STW, but I'd be surprised if even we've seen the inside of Trumps bathroom.
What everyone above seems to be missing is like the dam it wont be Russia who "shells " the power station .. it will again be blamed on those pesky Ukranians who started all this.
True enough - but Ruzzia is the little boy who cried wolf - we know its all badly staged bull*hit and posturing.
2029 May be a bit far off given the rate of AI And possible escalation - I will start prepping the basement now
Honey is the only food that doesn't go off right - How long can you live off honey ?
The only people who still believe anything Russia claims are the majority of its own population, and some paid-for Republican politicians in the US. Surprised to see Lindsey's name on that resolution, TBH.
I think there was a discussion earlier in this thread and the suggestion was that NATO/US there basically would be a ‘every military installation, resource, navy boat, nuke silo and manufacturer of military equipment in Russia would be dust by sundown without need to use nukes’ response ready and waiting for the command.
A very dangerous game of bluff though….
The thing to remember here is that NATO/US won't be bluffing.
How are "We" going to put Russia's military out of action without a big bomb landing on my house?
It’s been a game of bluff since the 60’s and the rules are well understood.
Maybe we won't - Zippy - but what's the alternative - let some nutter let off nukes and or destroy nuclear facilities without reciprocation?
It's a pretty fair hill to die on in my opinion as well we'd be on a course for destruction anyway.
Id suspect that the US/Nato has a few capabilities we/Ruzzia know about - One thing that is abundantly clear is that the Russian milatary/tech is very outdated unreliable and exaggerated in capabilities.
its Bark does seem worse than its bite - Granted its ICBMs and Sub based missies don't have as far to go - but i wonder how well maintained it is and how old it is id suggest most of the infrastructure and material is Soviet in origin and there must be some kind of countermeasure developed for what does get off the deck !
I know it only takes one or two of course - but im not sure it comes to that - It's time his bluff was called.
IF Nato were to strike - im not sure it would be nuclear - more precision-based munitions to decapitate C&C networks would give food for thought and - if you take the head - im not sure there are others that would be willing to press a button for MAD
Just my ramblings anyway -- Off to stack up on tinned goods
But *if* NATO/US did react like this, would China stand by and just watch? Frankly it is a terrifying turn of events.
There was a us / China meet last week I think . I would guess that this course of action was at least discussed before they went public.
I would guess that this course of action was at least discussed before they went public.
Frankly, it’s been a terrifying set of events for a very long time
Im sure China like the rest of the normal world will not want to see any damage accidental or otherwise done to the Zap power plant. And im very sure Blinkin would have made it very clear what the out come will be when he was hosted by Xi the other day. Beside more scraps for China when mad Vad places all his cards on the table.
But *if* NATO/US did react like this, would China stand by and just watch? Frankly it is a terrifying turn of events.
I think China would be furious with Russia tbh
I would guess it depends on wind conditions re blowing up ZAP but sadly this is Russia and a dictator who cares not 1 jot about Russians.
Estimated 250 thousand troops (his own) have been killed/ wounded already by Putin stupidity, killing a few citizens with slow action radiation related cancer won't bother him as he won't be around to witness the aftermath .
I can't see it happening and I hope it never will
IF Nato were to strike – im not sure it would be nuclear – more precision-based munitions to decapitate C&C networks would give food for thought and – if you take the head – im not sure there are others that would be willing to press a button for MAD
If .......
I can't see any intervention, IF it happens being anything more than within Ukraine's borders or military targets nearby (airbases, logistics etc) within Russia. That gives them some legitimacy in the actions, and leaves room for escalation/de-escalation. If we charged in with the aim of destroying entire Russian state, regime and military then they've nothing to lose. Keep it within Ukraine and you've got a negotiating point whereby if they withdraw it all ends. If they start flying jets over the North Sea we can escalate.
stevedoc
Free MemberWhat everyone above seems to be missing is like the dam it wont be Russia who “shells ” the power station .. it will again be blamed on those pesky Ukranians who started all this.
In the public debate at least, which isn't really fact based. But it'll be surveilled to ****. Part of the issue there of course is that it's all classified and of course people can claim that it's biased. "We want proof" "Here is the proof" "Oh but this is from the US" "Well yeah, they're the people with the most satellites and drones and the spy jets and the intelligence network, who else did you expect it from", the demands for independent proof are all about discounting the actula proof and establishing a level of "acceptable proof" which is impossible.
But that can be reacted to. With the dam, there was discussion of rapid declassification, and that was a lower level of severity. If the US/NATO wants to act militarily, bringing out the evidence can be done fast, and then it's only the unplacatable nutters, useful idiots and shills that are a problem- and they're always going to be a problem.
I’ve no idea obviously what the NATO response would be, but something like the destruction of the Sevastopol naval base might be the kind of threatened reprisal? Hopefully we’ll never know!
I’ve no idea obviously what the NATO response would be, but something like the destruction of the Sevastopol naval base might be the kind of threatened reprisal? Hopefully we’ll never know!
Yes. It would definitely be an escalation scale, not an instant thermonuclear strike. Obvious things to impose as an early step would be naval and aerial blockades, so any ships, submarines, or aircraft leaving Russian territory would be treated as hostile. Importantly, that could include any aircraft entering Ukrainian airspace or firing into Ukrainian airspace (i.e. a de facto no fly zone over Ukraine). Including Sevastopol as Ukrainian territory would force Russia into tacitly backing down from a NATO confrontation by stopping any active use of the base or facing a humiliating defeat.
Russia can't challenge NATO on conventional terms, so a conventional strike on Russian ships or aircraft violating the blockade would then put Putin in the position of accepting it or escalating to a nuclear strike. If Putin wanted to go nuclear, he would have done it already. He's not stupid, he knows that a nuclear exchange would mean the destruction of Russia so he has been careful so far to avoid escalating to a level that would provoke NATO intervention.
If Putin wanted to go nuclear, he would have done it already.
This has to be one of the daftest statements constantly posted in this whole thread, with no basis in reality at all.
If Vlad wants to go nuclear he could do it at any time, assuming the russian nuclear arsenal is real and in a useable condition.
This has to be one of the daftest statements constantly posted in this whole thread, with no basis in reality at all.
If Vlad wants to go nuclear he could do it at any time, assuming the russian nuclear arsenal is real and in a useable condition.
Going nuclear has been a constant bluster from Putin lovers. Russia has been humiliated by Ukraine on the battlefield, but Russia could destroy Ukraine in a few minutes using their nuclear weapons. The only conclusion from this is that Putin knows that a nuclear escalation would mean the end of his regime. He's not going to escalate to a nuclear strike. If he thought he could get away with it, he would have already done it.
assuming the russian nuclear arsenal is real and in a useable condition.
And that's a fairly major assumption.
This has to be one of the daftest statements constantly posted in this whole thread, with no basis in reality at all.
Totally with @tagnut69 on this one.
Putin might be crazy but he’s not stupid. He is quite capable of keeping a final card up his sleeve for if he ever faces the prospect of loosing power through events on the battlefield. He’s still kept a good grip on power, so why would he have risked everything by going nuclear already?