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The Russian terrorist state killed 21 people shopping today in Kherson, and protest when a couple of frisbees bounce of their lair.
TASS report a fire at the Ilsky refinery inland of Novorossiysk port. Their main operation is crude distillation and the fire was out within two hours.
It seems to be minor and again may be part of Russia painting a picture of the threat posed by Ukraine
Nordic journalists have pieced together the movements of several Russian ships in the NordStream area on 21st-22nd September including submarine rescue vessel SS-750 and tugboat SB-123 capable of launching mini-submarines
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-navy-vessels-seen-near-nord-stream-before-blasts-nordic-broadcasters-2023-05-03/
On my admittedly rubbish Chinese phone that Twitter video resembles a model. Or CGG, its probably real, but also possible its not. Quite a good way for Russian members of the public to show distain from a safe distance, fly a drone at the Kremlin.
Get more intersting if they add a payload, but most hobby drones can only carry a few ounces
Agree it's unlikely to have been a UA operation, although seems unlikely to me that it's a false flag to - surely it just makes Putin look weak if even the Kremlin is shown to be vulnerable? I'd have thought a Russian false flag drone attack would have hit a hospital or something. Seems more likely to be disgruntled Russians to me but I guess you can't assume anything with Putin and his muppets.
Our old friend Prigozhin is now on record as saying that the counteroffensive has started. They seem to be planning to go through/around Bakhmut, though this may of course be a feint. I’m betting on the RA collapsing if the UA breakthrough and start to circle round.
God only knows what that thing that ‘hit’ the Kremlin was all about. Other than it was almost certainly not the Ukrainians. False flag maybe.
Rapid unplanned disassembly of Putin is whats needed. I bet if they go ahead with the May Day parade a Stunt* Putin will be wheeled out.
* I may have spelled "stunt" incorrectly....
Rapid unplanned disassembly of Putin is whats needed.
Might seem attractive, but Russia has literally no "establishment". It's not a function state in the sense that if Sunak or Biden were assassinated, the state would rumble on, In Russia, not so much. Who knows what the fall out would be if Putin was out of the picture. Fancy trying to negotiate with Prigozhin?
If that drone in Moscow was Ukrainian that would suggest that there was a Ukrainian team in the city itself unless they have a small drone that can be operated from hundreds of miles away.
The Kremlin has layered drone defences and their systems also disrupt GPS systems, city drivers on satnav hate it
Ukraine used to fly drones 3km, commercial drones can barely manage 500m on the frontline now and that's opposing otherwise poorly-equipped Russian troops
Taken together with the film-effect explosion I'm unconvinced
I think most of the normal free thinking western world understand that its just a wee bit dodgy ..But the none free thinking folk of Moscow its all NATOs fault
It's a pretty poor execution, so doubt it's anything Ukrainian, more. likely local groups around Moscow, or Moscow themselves, the fact it's initiated high and away from the target makes it nothing more than a firework.
It’s a pretty poor execution, so doubt it’s anything Ukrainian, more. likely local groups around Moscow, or Moscow themselves, the fact it’s initiated high and away from the target makes it nothing more than a firework.
Absolutely. It provides an excuse for all sorts, but pressingly Moscow has nothing to parade on Victory Day on the 9th.
President Putin restored Victory Day to an annual event in 2008 demonstrating Russian power in various cities and countries. I doubt that they even have the workers to string bunting currently
it does seem rather convenient.
So there's this...While he appears to having a shit fit...Are those bodies behind him? Is he filming this while standing in front of dead Wagner mercenaries?
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1654263502838845440
So there’s this…While he appears to having a shit fit…Are those bodies behind him? Is he filming this while standing in front of dead Wagner mercenaries?
My first thought was it's a deepfake. But then there's also this:
‘I’m pulling Wagner units out of Bakhmut’ on May 10: Wagner boss
In a sudden announcement, the Wagner chief says his forces will leave Bakhmut on May 10 after posting a video slamming top Russian generals.Yevgeny Prigozhin said they were leaving due to heavy losses and a lack of ammunition.
“I declare on behalf of the Wagner fighters, on behalf of the Wagner command, that on May 10, 2023, we are obliged to transfer positions in the settlement of Bakhmut to units of the defence ministry and withdraw the remains of Wagner to logistics camps to lick our wounds,” Prigozhin said in a statement.
“I’m pulling Wagner units out of Bakhmut because in the absence of ammunition they’re doomed to perish senselessly.”
Wagner fighters have spearheaded Russia’s attempt to capture Bakhmut and have continuously complained to Russian defence ministers over the lack of weapons deliveries.
Seems like Putin's command is crumbling?
^ well he is upset.
He has a point - it is an utter waste of life.
However, there is a simple solution. He could just pack up and leave.
Along with any other Russian in Ukraine.
He has a point – it is an utter waste of life.
However, there is a simple solution. He could just pack up and leave.
Along with any other Russian in Ukraine.
Unfortunately not
tinas - yes I think they have done that, but this seems a really significant change and threat to withdraw from Bahkmut as a whole organisation, not just a retreat from an operation under fire, and very pubicly.
It could be a bluff/feint.
It could be true.
It could be the start of some in-fighting.
It could be Wagner, as a private company, has had enough of the true (not financial) costs of this war.
It could be that vodka was involved.
If they retreat and are greeted by Russian military who try to stop them, it could get rather awkward.
It could be Wagner, as a private company, has had enough of the true (not financial) costs of this war.
I'm morbidly curious what their fee structure is.
Paid by the manhours? Then there's an incentive to keep people alive.
Paid by results? Makes more sense give their tactics, maybe the Kremlins cheque for Bakhmut bounced.
Hopefully there are barrier troops and they will kill the entire Wagner force that's left alive and tries to leave. <span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">Any that get out will no doubt be headed off somewhere else in the world to kill anyone and anything they can.</span>
In the text above that video of Prigozhin ranting, it mentions that apparently FSB are now focused on preventing a coup. Unless the Russians are playing a spectacular bluff (unlikely) it’s hard to see beyond a scenario whereby everyone is getting a bit scared as disaster looms and the rats aren’t fleeing the ship so much as trying to consume each other.
When the UA storm does break, given the morale issues at the highest levels, it’s hard to envisage anything other than truckloads of RA soldiers either legging it for the border or putting their hands up.
Of course the geopolitical implications of the collapse of the RA (and what that would mean for the Russian political elite) are hard to accurately calculate. Certainly a vast swathe of the Russian Federation would suddenly spot an opportunity to secede, possibly leading to a collapse of the Federation itself, similar to the collapse of the USSR. Chaos would undoubtedly follow. This would be good news for both China and the US I suspect, which may be why then Chinese have been content to hover on the sidelines, giving Vlad just enough string to effectively hang himself..
Of course the geopolitical implications of the collapse of the RA (and what that would mean for the Russian political elite) are hard to accurately calculate.
See Stalin's Terror for an idea of the bloodshed this will engender, not something to look forward to.
When the UA storm does break,
Apparently this curfew in Kherson region starts at midnight tonight...
See Stalin’s Terror for an idea of the bloodshed this will engender, not something to look forward to.
Are we to give two hoots about how the go about tearing themselves apart? I'm not.
We probably should care, because *if* it does happen, whoever wrestles from power will have an awful lot of nuclear weapons
See Stalin’s Terror for an idea of the bloodshed this will engender, not something to look forward to.
Not sure if the terror is an accurate representation of what might happen. Perhaps something more akin to Bosnia (albeit on a larger scale) as various ethnic groups look to settle scores and/or gain the ascendancy.
Regardless it’s not about looking forward to it per se (though I am looking forward to the collapse of Vlad’s regime) more about understanding that the implications of a power vacuum in Moscow could be far reaching and very hard to predict. Vladivostok back in the hands of China anyone?
The one bit of UK government policy I can get behind
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1654479297128562691?s=20
I can see Prigozhin trying to slice a chunk of Russia/Ukraine/Belarus off for himself and fellow wagnereers.
The question is, is he there because he believes in it, because he wants a slice of being the top dog of Russia or because he's been told to and is frustrated because he can't do what he's been told to.
No matter what, this still ends with coup. The immediate result might be worse for the short term but ultimately it will end up with a more liberal and less warmongering Russia.
The reasoning behind a coup is easy. We'll lead you to a better Russia. Instead of making you bleed for it we'll pay for it instead. The US and everyone else will happily accept financially satisfactory transactions over blood shed. They are, after all, quite happy to pour billions into the other side of this instead of their own human lives.
The whole point of having a large military is to 'guide' others into beneficial trade agreements and to stop yourself being taken advantage of.
Poland still remembers the pain from a Soviet Russia and would prefer to spend money to stop it arriving at their doorstep. Who can blame them?
I have no doubt that for a lot of nations involved with this that this is basically a proxy war. They fund Ukraine so in the future they don't have to stop them with their own lives. I don't think this is morally wrong but I think it is worth keeping in mind.
Good luck to Ukraine. I hope Russia folds soon for the sake of all the Ukrainian lives lost.
but ultimately it will end up with a more liberal and less warmongering Russia.
I wish I was as optimistic as you...
but ultimately it will end up with a more liberal and less warmongering Russia.
That's what we hoped for with Gorbachev - and got for a while. Then the drunks and thugs came back.
The situation in Bakhmut for Wagner PMC is a headache for Yevgeny Prigozhin
He's committed massively to taking Bakhmut for reasons that I just don't understand because it's militarily of little value
Russia seems to be changing to a defensive role in anticipation of Ukraine's offensive and has reduced ground-based attacks probably to save and redistribute ammunition and other supplies
Wagner is in danger of being hung out to dry if it doesn't retreat from Bakhmut quickly because it won't get help from Russia and will quickly be isolated without supplies.
Reuters reports that "Russia's main mercenary group announced plans on Friday to withdraw from the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, but Ukraine said the fighters were reinforcing positions to try to seize it before Russia marks World War Two Victory Day next week." https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-mercenaries-threaten-quit-ukrainian-city-counteroffensive-nears-2023-05-05/
That explains May 10, Victory Day is the 9th, but to reinforce before delaying retreat to mark a date on a calendar doesn't make sense
...but ultimately it will end up with a more liberal and less warmongering Russia.
The mechanisms to maintain the status quo were deliberately put in place decades ago, the only change that you'll see will be the names on the doors
New Yorker is running a relevant opinion piece on that.
We tend to equate Putin’s regime with Putin himself. It is often heard that if Putin disappears, his regime will fall. However, I caution against this assumption, as the regime may prove to be more resilient, drawn-out, and potentially radical than Putin himself
https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/why-russian-elites-think-putins-war-is-doomed-to-fail
This is a really interesting article about what is happening/has happened in Bakhmut.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/7/2167977/undefined
LMAO at the T34. Whatever happened to the tens of thousands of tanks that people said Russia had in storage?
https://twitter.com/DecodingTrolls/status/1655867917261520896
1 lone tank on the victory parade, they couldnt even get one of those Amrata prototypes to make it
Not sure if that will be the morale boost that Putin was hoping for
I imagine the Zbloggers wont be happy
We have to be seeing an end to the conflict soon surely, I know we have very pro west media but it really does look like Russia is close to exhausting itself
Apparently it is tradition for the T34's to lead the parade. But it was notable this year that there was only the one.
And almost nothing else.
LMAO at the T34
@nickc - not sure what your point is? We don’t have a victory parade every year to show off our military strength. Yes we still have spitfire and Lancaster flypasts, but that’s completely different tradition to what the Russians perform.
For reference, have a look at 1:24 in this video https://www.youtube.com/live/M6__KVnXFEU?feature=share
And compare it to 51:30 in this video
https://www.youtube.com/live/LDhJaDzdS3s?feature=share
We may have the times within the year where we have soldiers marching about, but that’s a completely different show than what the Russians perform each year….but I think you know that.
but that’s completely different tradition to what the Russians perform.
Is it though? Feels like the same energy to me. Yes the Russians have a parade every year, just like say; Remembrance. I just think that when we have a RAF funded bunch of 80 year old aircraft that are specially rolled out for parades, y'know like an old tank, throwing stones at this particular Russian glasshouse seems a little ill-judged
Nick, really? You think it’s possible to compare Remembrance Day Parades with the Russian Victory Parade?
You seen many tanks being paraded through the streets of London?
The point of the above posts isn’t about the fact that Russia parades WW2 symobolic tanks, it is the fact that this year there is a single T34 and compared to previous years, very little other armaments.
I left those videos there with time stamps to help you see the difference. What is being portrayed is that the Russian Military has been decimated badly. There was been discussion about the use of T34’s by Russia in Ukraine and Russia receiving 30 T34’s from Laos. Then we see a Victory Parade and only a single T34 is being paraded, which compared to previous years is somewhat different and deserves commenting upon.
You think it’s possible to compare Remembrance Day Parades with the Russian Victory Parade?
One is a commiseration, the other a celebration - not hard to work out which is which but I think explains some of the Russian willingness to throw around military might.