The Russian space programme?
I don’t think Russia has much of a space programme right now. Space x is flying their cosmanoughts to the ISS. they’ve admitted that their new space station is a pipe dream without western tech, so may stay on at the ISS after all.
The T14 armata has come to nothing 🤷♂️
The “Terminator” BMP (another Russian super weapon) was hopeless in the theatre it was designed for 🤷♂️
From what I've seen most of the Russian super weapons and the other much vaunted advancements of their Ratnik program have proven to be severely lacking now they've actually come up against an actual organized military rather than insurgents or militia groups.
The idea that Russia is somehow keeping back 'the good stuff' and their use of human waves of penal legions and untrained conscripts is part of some 4D chess game is just laughable, most of Russia's remaining 'Elite' units have been degraded to the point of near erasure. Hence the current reliance on the Wagner creeps.
The 1991 Gulf War was possibly the greatest imaginable PR campaign for the US military-industrial complex and its wares, the 2022 invasion of Ukraine is currently having precisely the opposite effect on one of Russia's very few significant export industries.
With up to 500,000 of Russia's best and brightest having fled the country the long term economic impact of this war is going to be devastating, even though they're doing a pretty good job of cooking the books to hide it so far.
If we're now in a war of attrition, its not just the amount of ordnance available,which being supplied by western allies is probably unlimited. but how long the Ukraine can last before its troop numbers start dropping to a dangerous level.
Good to see the thread has descended into some lighthearted comedy. Pig of day, so needed that.
The 1991 Gulf War was possibly the greatest imaginable PR campaign for the US military-industrial complex and its wares, the 2022 invasion of Ukraine is currently having precisely the opposite effect on one of Russia’s very few significant export industries.
1991 NATO: "That's some effective high-tech shit right there..."
2022 RUssia: "Why is all our shit broken?"
If we’re now in a war of attrition, its not just the amount of ordnance available,which being supplied by western allies is probably unlimited. but how long the Ukraine can last before its troop numbers start dropping to a dangerous level.
You're right, but if we have a peak at UK doctrine the 3 components of fighting power (the thing that wins wars) are Conceptual, Physical and Moral.
I'll pull the quotes from the doctrine (which is open source):
a conceptual component (the ideas behind how to fight)
a moral component (the ability to get people to fight)
A physical component (the means to fight)
So you're right, it's not just a numbers game, but if they pay attention to the other two components (which they're doing with outside assistance to grow their own capability) then they'll be okay.
Ukraine definitely has the edge in all three components over Russia.
The only thing Russia has over Ukraine is the number of people available to fight, willingly or otherwise.
The toll on Ukraine's fighting population is high. A friend of mine has lost three cousins, all of whom have kids, and two cousins have life changing injuries... One of them, aged 21, lost his arm a month back. It's f-in brutal.... However, her father, aged 59 is out there digging trenches north of Lviv near the Belarusian border and training several times a week in the defence forces.
The only thing Russia has over Ukraine is the number of people available to fight, willingly or otherwise.
Thing is, that's not an edge, such a common misconception. Unmotivated, untrained and unwilling are simply ingredients for a meat grinder, if anything it's giving the ukrainians the ability to develop, implement, assess and adapt its own tactics and doctrine.
Christ, we're still on "it's all NATO's fault" 285 days after Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine after denying it had plans to do so and after Russia continues to launch indiscriminate missile attacks on civilian infrastructure.
with rusty old WW1 rifles
The Mosin-Nagant was the most used Soviet rifle in WW2 - 17.4 million of them built in the 1930s and 1940s.
It's still pretty shocking that troops are being issued bolt action rifles - the equivalent would be the British Army handing out Lee Enfields, another rifle that saw use in both world wars.
Christ, we’re still on “it’s all NATO’s fault” 285 days after Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine after denying it had plans to do so and after Russia continues to launch indiscriminate missile attacks on civilian infrastructure.
Why is this a thing? I struggle with it, but I guess it might give an indication as to where some peoples political ideology bias leans...
If you get your views from Russian propaganda sources thats what you get
Thing is, that’s not an edge
That was kinda my point... Don't see many Russians lining up to commit themselves to this war unlike Ukrainians. Big difference in attitudes and goals.
relapsed_mandalorian
Full MemberWhy is this a thing? I struggle with it, but I guess it might give an indication as to where some peoples political ideology bias leans…
Partly yes it's ideology/apologists but I think it's mostly contrarians, and of course chewkw the thread vandal. Out in the real world a lot of "hurr durr libruls bad" people have adopted it just on general principles, if Biden thinks it's good then it's bad (which of course makes our last 3 Tory leaders officially Leftists)
Basically it's the closest thing to a coherent argument anyone can make so people have gravitated to it.
Christ, we’re still on “it’s all NATO’s fault”...snip
Prior to the 1990 agreement various western leaders had promised that NATO wouldn't expand any further east if Russia accepted Germany's reunification. The wording in the signed agreement was that German troops could operate in the former GDR but movement of other NATO forces into the former GDR would only be with Germany's permission. The signed agreement didn't include the prevention of NATO's expansion into other countries
Ukraine had considered applying to NATO in 2008. Ukraine didn't follow through but did take part in NATO exercises from 2010
Russia's 2014 invasion of Crimea led to a change of government in Ukraine. The people increased their support for NATO membership and in 2019 Ukrainian MPs voted 334/385 for NATO and EU membership
Issue 1: Western leaders including Helmut Kohl and John Major shouldn't have promised no further expansion of NATO without agreement of other allies including George HW Bush. President Putin has used this publicly since 2007.
Issue 2: President Putin did more to expand NATO eastward into Ukraine by his decision to invade Crimea and later the rest of the country than anyone else. He's also brought Sweden and Finland into the NATO process this year
It's notable that he's ignored various countries who are further east than Germany and have joined NATO after 1990, particularly those that border Russia.
You might conclude that the invasion of Ukraine is Russia's fault, that it has been a major objective for years and that they have no wish to start a fight with NATO
On the subject of sanctions it's true to say that they can (and do) hurt the countries imposing them.
It's also true that sanctions lose their edge in the face of external influences, an example is the G7 oil price cap. By the time that it was agreed world oil prices had dropped and it won't materially affect Russia's finances, but it won't hurt the imposing countries either
It's also true to say that sanctions overall are massively hurting Russia politically, maybe not so much on the published bottom line, but within specific industries, what the population sees and can buy, how free the wielders of power are to fly to their seized yachts, etc. Sanctions are hurting
We'll see what analysts say about the actual financial and industrial effects as they update them
You might conclude that the invasion of Ukraine is Russia’s fault, that it has been a major objective for years and that they have no wish to start a fight with NATO
Indeed, you could do no worse than look at Putin's own words on the matter
On the subject of sanctions it’s true to say that they can (and do) hurt the countries imposing them.
This is basically the argument for free-trade reformulated. The rationale for free-trade is that it allows countries to focus their economies on sectors that they excel in and import goods that they are less efficient at producing. If you believe that free-trade has benefits (even if, like me, you think some restraint is needed to minimize its negative impacts), then imposing sanctions on another country will result in economic hurt to that country's trading partners.
In the case of Russia, which has launched a brutal invasion of Ukraine, the economic cost is minor compared to the benefit of stopping Russian genocide. I have absolutely no sympathy for people arguing that the West should try to coerce Ukraine into surrendering because of economic hurt to Western economies.
I have absolutely no sympathy for people arguing that the West should try to coerce Ukraine into surrendering because of economic hurt to Western economies.
Especially as it gives any autocrat with a messiah complex carte blanche to invade their neighbours as pretty much all countries have some kind of economic ties to the 'West'.
The long term economic impact of every tin-port dictator realizing they can initiate armed land grabs at will would be far far far greater than any sanctions regime.
China and Taiwan would be just the start.
so any theories on how they are hitting these airfields so deep in Russia? what drone tech are they using to have such big range, and for it to be completely unnoticed?
with the crimea airfields there were lots of before and after sat images. I haven't seen any of these airfields yet? did they actually take out any bombers or was it a more symbolic strike?
Obsolete Soviet era cruise missile TU141 I think, according to the internet anyway. May or may not be accurate 🤷♂️
Info at 7’30
Yeah, supposedly the TU141 reconnaissance drone with a new engine and a 75kg warhead.
with the crimea airfields there were lots of before and after sat images. I haven’t seen any of these airfields yet? did they actually take out any bombers or was it a more symbolic strike?
1x TU95 bomber at Engels
https://twitter.com/UkraineRussia2/status/1600206177727614990?t=v7V3JRa8fwwOHXbVtmkWQA&s=19
1x TU22m3 at Dyagelivo
https://twitter.com/kozako01/status/1599843578867773440?t=iI5xT_Gq7rYISingmIVADA&s=19
Fuel storage at Kursk
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1600263738933682176?t=rXqPnuczpryMNt4yKh86Hg&s=19
Disruptive rather than catastrophic for Russia, but certainly a blow to their pride
Also forces Russia to commit resources away from front line
When their troops are already lacking air support, warm clothes, food, ammo...
These airbases look to have been undefended. I suspect Russia may be regretting using their S300 anti aircraft systems as poor in accurate ground to ground missiles.
Russia may have a lot of troops - but most of them are required to control their own population!!
Ukraine now has 1 million in uniform, with 30-50,000 recently trained up by NATO countries, plus more in the pipeline.
With conventional military thinking that you need 3:1 troop ratio to attack another country, that becomes an issue before you even talk about quality of troop and kit.
Russia may have more artillery, but they are less accurate and of lesser range. To take out a field with 1 sheep, Russia would obliterate the whole field. Ukraine would shoot the sheep.
To take out a field with 1 sheep, Russia would obliterate the whole field. Ukraine would shoot the sheep.
Not to mention what the Wagner guys would do if they had a crack at a sheep.
With conventional military thinking that you need 3:1 troop ratio to attack another country,
My understanding is that need 3:1 ratio to take territory, whether that's in your own country or not? Which is part of the interesting dilemna that Ukraine now has, considering the table has been turned and Russia is now the one ceding ground to the more effective beligerent
3:1 - What is an untrained Russian conscript worth, in that ratio? 0.5, -1 🤷♂️
3:1 – What is an untrained Russian conscript worth, in that ratio? 0.5, -1 🤷♂️
Quite
Plus UAF have short interior supply lines, with ready resupply from The West. This is all without the benefit of NATO satellite/Airborne Recon, which is a considerable benefit.
Ukraine has more volunteers to fight than in currently needs.
Double post
With conventional military thinking that you need 3:1 troop ratio to attack another country,
Not to attack another country, just to attack an enemy formation. Also, that assumes relatively equal quality of troops and equipment. 1000 guys with tanks and machine guns can probably beat a million guys with pointy sticks as long as they don't run out of ammo. The U.S. vs. Iraq showed what happens when a professional military takes on badly equipped conscripts.
Courtesy of NATO, Ukraine have much better intelligence on Russian deployments than Russia has on Ukraine, plus they have better logistics. That means that Ukraine can focus their attacks on Russia's weak areas. The Russian conscripts are badly equipped and supplied, probably about as useful as the Iraqi army was. All that Ukraine has to do is find a weak point in the Russian defenses and then put 10,000 well trained and equipped troops against that. Russia having 250,000 starving conscripts is irrelevant.
Over the last few weeks thousands of Ukrainian troops have returned back from training in NATO facilities and with fresh winter kit, the last time a large number of them arrived back was in late August and Ukraine promptly put them to work to great effect in the Kharkiv offensive. Reports from Russians on the front line back in early Sept was that one day they were facing the same Ukrainians ZSU forces as they were used to the next they were suddenly facing fresh, trained troops armed to the teeth with NATO-issue kit.
This influx of trained troops is another reason why I don't think things are just going to stay static until the Spring.
The weather in Eastern Ukraine over the next few days is 2-5 degrees and rainy so no dice for now, but when the ground freezes hard I reckon it's all going to kick off and I don't see Russia numerical superiority counting for much when they can't even keep their existing troops fed and warm.
Russia having 250,000 starving conscripts is irrelevant.
Soon to be starving and very, very cold. Probably sleeping.
A lot of the newly trained troops have been doing SF training too.
Interesting about those power plants. Turkey certainly seems to be doing well from this conflict
If they play the good guys it bolsters their application to join the EU
Erdogan is still a tin-pot dictator though
If they play the good guys it bolsters their application to join the EU
I dont know if he is even looking for that now.
Its done a world of good for their arms industry and I suspect he wants to showcase some other gear.
He has done surprisingly well so far balancing the sides against each other considering how badly he had done previously in international affairs.
I think that Turkiye's role in this war has been really interesting. They'll happily sit between the US and Russia and have a relationship with both, but aren't afraid to act as they see fit.
Turkiye is continuing its conflict with the Kurds in both Iraq and Syria against US interests, balancing this by calling Russia out on its "special operation".
By calling the Russian invasion of Ukraine a war, they were able to enact the Montreux Convention to prevent most warships navigating the Bosporus and Dardenelles
Turkiye has supplied Ukraine with some excellent weapons against Russian interests including drones and very accurate Roketsan TRLG-230 missiles. They'll no doubt get additional sales, taking a chunk of the world arms market from the leading players, the US and Russia
Crossed with dissonance, yes, +1
I agree he doesn't seem to have any real desire to join the EU, his ambitions arr way higher. Arguably already a significant regional power, I'd imagine his wet dream would be returning Turkey to the days of being a global super power again
I’d imagine his wet dream would be returning Turkey to the days of being a global super power again
The enemy of my enemy is my friend...
Until actual conflict ceases...
Expect a VERY long and drawn out Cold War in Eastern Europe once this is all over, that probably doesn't even involve Russia. Erdogan will be very quick to remind Ukraine of just how much he helped them to repel the Russians, and his interest rates won't be favourable I suspect!
He’ll have to deal with 85% inflation first 😵💫
Turkiye is positioning itself for the emerging multi-polar world and there are elections in June. Maybe voters will like what they see
A terrorist bomb exploded in Istanbul last month.
This renewed the campaign in Syria and will cause some headaches in both Russia and the US.
Russia is manoeuvring Turkiye to team up with President Assad because President Putin can't afford to divert additional forces and materiel to Syria against Kurdish rebels
