Considering we signed an agreement with them that in exchange for them giving up their nukes we’d act as backup for them in the event they had issues
Hindsight is a wonderful thing. At the time it felt like Ukraine giving them up was making the world a safer place, but if they'd kept those nukes there would be no war now.
It seems like the Ukraine of 8 years ago was quite different to the Ukraine of 2022, or at least its army is. Part of why Russia thought it would just roll over Ukraine's army in February this year was because they were pretty much able to do that 8 years ago. Their army has become a lot more effective in the intervening years, probably in part due to the training and aid the West did provide following those invasions.
Considering we signed an agreement...We had an obligation to help
Chief amongst the "we" is Russia who flagrantry ignored the Budapest Memorandum by crossing Ukraine's borders.
The Budapest Memorandum included the UN Security Council providing a resolution for assistance, what it didn't do was provide an obligation to assist.
It was a political rather a legal document that Russia has taken advantage of. Russia later threatened the use of nuclear weapons, a further breach
snip...but if they’d kept those nukes there would be no war now
Maybe. In 1990 Ukraine decided that they'd be better off without nuclear weapons and acceding to the 1968 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons made financial sense to them. Russia was their ally, they'd be given the financial means to get rid of a high-maintenance item and access to advanced nuclear power technology as a result (Chernobyl had gone badly wrong only four years before). The agreement served them well for 1/4 century
It's reported by Reuters that President Macron has said "The West should consider how to address Russia's need for security guarantees if President Vladimir Putin agrees to negotiations about ending the war in Ukraine" https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-war-ukraine-latest-news-russian-troops-pull-back-near-kherson-2022-12-01/
More importantly the world should consider how to address Ukraine's need for security guarantees
In the same article "Sweden deported a Kurdish man with alleged ties to Turkish militants as Ankara keeps up pressure on the Nordic country to meet its demands in return for NATO membership"
Sweden is moving towards NATO membership https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-war-ukraine-latest-news-russian-troops-pull-back-near-kherson-2022-12-01/
Ukraine has struck Engles Airbase, 600km inside Russia. It’s home to their bombers.
What with?
What with?
A quick glance at Twitter suggests all sorts of theories and mad claims, from on the ground special forces to new drone with 100km distance and big warhead...
Ukraine just announced today that they're developing a kamikaze drone with a 1000KM range and a 75KG warhead.
Looks like initial tests have been....promising.
Big missile attack on UKr infrastructure today. Also some rumours of a breakthrough in the East.
Big missile attack on UKr infrastructure today.
They should try dropping one of those 1000km drones on top of Putin. He's rapidly ascending the top ten in the charts of humanities bastards.
Also some rumours of a breakthrough in the East.
Breakthrough for who?
Ukraine - just a few lines dropped in here and there from usually reliable sources.
A breakthrough between Svatove and Kreminna I believe.
Big news if true, there's another key railway that runs south into Severodonesk and that gets very close to the front lines around there, I imagine that's how most of the supplies and reinforcements for the continued assault on Bakhmut are getting there.
All eyes were on Tokmak, Kherson and Bakhmut but East of the Svatore/Kreminna line is pretty open countryside and if the Ukrainians can break through with the same fast motorised units they used in Kharkiv they could wreak merry hell in Russia's backlines again, assuming the mud situation allows this.
This is hilarious...
“Training, morale and leadership become critical,” says Ben Barry, a former British army tank commander who served in Bosnia with the Nato postwar stabilisation force during the chilly winter of 1995-96. “It is easy to become demoralised in the cold: imagine a badly run skiing holiday, without good organisation and equipment.
From this Guardian article. Yes - being on the front-line of a battlefield with temperatures expected to drop to -20degC is JUST like a slightly rubbish skiing holiday. FFS.
Sums up the army officer corps, TBH!
Russia are building an 85km defensive line N/S from Staribilsk, with trenches, Anti-Tank ditches & dragons teeth.
Ukraine just announced today that they’re developing a kamikaze drone with a 1000KM range and a 75KG warhead.
Warhead was a lighted cigarette, apparently.
Sums up the army officer corps, TBH!
Squaddies too. I remember during the Iraq invasion Geoff Hoon, defence minister at the time, said 'Um Qasar is a city a bit like Southampton '
And a squaddie on the news said "Either he's never been to Southampton or he's never been Um Qasar. There's no beer, no prostitutes, and there's people shooting at you. It's more like Portsmouth"
There’s no beer, no prostitutes, and there’s people shooting at you. It’s more like Portsmouth”
Even though you could see the punchline coming it's still funny 🙂
There’s an article on the bbc news showing Putin driving over the Crimea bridge, in a Mercedes. W@%#er
more Ukraine drone activity?
The cost of living crisis is due to many things, none of which are remotely Ukraine’s fault.
Yes, but the bulk of the contributing factors come from the sanctions on Russia. Accept the fact that sanctions have backfired for the West than Russia.
I wonder how long will the German industry maintain themselves because their energy reserve is depleting fast, while UK is still ahead of many of them the last time I did a quick information search. Can't be arse to find more information now because it is so obvious, it is a waste of time to continue "searching" for alternative factors.
As far as I know, a portion or high portion (in future) of our income will go to paying the bonuses for the energy shareholders as they are all sitting pretty and warm while we languish in cold. Our only hope is for a warm winter.
I say maintain the sanctions to see how many govts will be in trouble.
Sanctions arent going anywhere and cheap Russian energy isnt going back to what it was, deal with it, western energy supply chains certainly are.
Accept the fact that sanctions have backfired for the West than Russia
That's not a fact though (assuming you're trying to say the sanctions are hurting the West more than Russia?). Sanctions are having a significant impact on Russia's ability to wage war on Ukraine, just that in itself is enough to warrant their continued use - despite it contributing to the cost of living issues in the West.
Accept the fact that sanctions have backfired for the West than Russia.
Russia is far worse off than we are, and it's going to get worse still for them.
Because of sanctions Russia can't build enough tanks, precision guided munitions and many other things. This is because they contain western components or are built with western machine tools. Sanctions are directly saving lives.
Accept the fact that sanctions have backfired for the West than Russia.
No, we knew sanctions would harm the rest of the world. However Russia is harmed more, and for longer.
Sanctions arent going anywhere and cheap Russian energy isnt going back to what it was, deal with it, western energy supply chains certainly are.
Who will blink first?
Going to China (that EU bloke what's his name?) for leverage means "giving your (general reference to the West) entire" industry to China.
That’s not a fact though (assuming you’re trying to say the sanctions are hurting the West more than Russia?). Sanctions are having a significant impact on Russia’s ability to wage war on Ukraine, just that in itself is enough to warrant their continued use – despite it contributing to the cost of living issues in the West.
No doubt sanctions will have an impact but it is a long war. Who will blink?
Russia is far worse off than we are, and it’s going to get worse still for them.
Perhaps, but that does not mean we are better off. i.e. we suffer less but other less developed countries suffer more due to others' actions. When you (as a country or the West) are better off or suffer less, while the rest suffer more because of your (West/EU/NATO etc) decision, guess what will happen? They will eventually untangle themselves from the Western influence. Let's see when will the straw break the camel's back.
Because of sanctions Russia can’t build enough tanks, precision guided munitions and many other things. This is because they contain western components or are built with western machine tools. Sanctions are directly saving lives.
Not sure about that until I see a peace agreement.
No, we knew sanctions would harm the rest of the world. However Russia is harmed more, and for longer.
Not sure other parts of the world agree but since US currency is the world reserve currencies, most countries just fall into line but the under current is building. In the long run the aim is to dislodge the US petrol currency reserve to avoid being dictated to (they will find a way eventually).
Because of sanctions Russia can’t build enough tanks, precision guided munitions and many other things. This is because they contain western components or are built with western machine tools.
Im not sure we can rely on that as an absolute. Russia is a gigantic country with immense mineral/oil/gas etc reserves, plus the technical know how to, when push comes to shove, implement it all.
We know their technical innovation and skill is top class, at least in some industries and aspects, because for years the Americans were using Russian rockets to launch into space(Soyuzz), and amongst other things,one of the most successful guns on the planet, the AK47. But we also know that Russia has huge reserves of troops, whether conscripts or regular military as we all know from their successes in WW2 they have no qualms about sacrificing large numbers.
I believe Russia can weather any storm that is set against them, so to resolve this conflict we need to look seriously at other ways of resolving it or its likely to go on for many years.
If currently they're doubling down in the eastern areas, they might be moving to a totally defensive position, like as the Americans coined 'Ticks on a hound'.
Perhaps, but that does not mean we are better off. i.e. we suffer less but other less developed countries suffer more due to others’ actions. When you (as a country or the West) are better off or suffer less, while the rest suffer more because of your (West/EU/NATO etc) decision, guess what will happen? They will eventually untangle themselves from the Western influence. Let’s see when will the straw break the camel’s back.
And to where would they turn?
A significant amount of the developing world is in debt to China already in the same way it (or it's predecessors were at that stage) were to the US decades ago. That ships long since sailed. And I can't imagine any countries are looking to jump into bed with Russia at the moment.
We know their technical innovation and skill is top class, at least in some industries and aspects, because for years the Americans were using Russian rockets to launch into space(Soyuzz), and amongst other things, one of the most successful guns on the planet, the AK47.
Arguable on two points:
Doesn't help when you don't have the domestic industrial capacity to make good of any talent. It would take years, decades to get from a handful of academics who might know how to fabricate a microchip, to actually building a facility that can do it, resource it, staff it, etc. And if you can't produce the chips, you're scupered. Just look at the problems building cars the last few years, they'll be having the same issues with weapons.
2nd point, the AK47 was developed in the 40's, the soyuz in the 60's. That's a very long time ago so aren't great examples.
Sanctions havent been as effective as hoped from the point of view of damaging russia's economy its only looking like a 4% decline in GDP (which is still bad for them!), the oil & gas price rises have offset much damage and they were fairly well insulated, it has hit their arms, aerospace & car industry very badly (car & plane production has pretty much ceased entirely) as they were very dependent on foreign components and there were already supply problems with those.
Long term there's now the situation that the west is learning to live without russian gas & oil + theres now renewed impetus for moving away from fossil fuels, Putin is really hurting his country's future
Ukranians hitting the airfields of Russia's nuclear bomber fleet seemingly unopposed & another airfield the day after?
Thats another huge humiliation for Russia.
Russian Navy is alreday too scared to keep its big ships in its Crimean ports, now its most important strategic airbases arent safe?
Putin's humiliations are growing
And I can’t imagine any countries are looking to jump into bed with Russia at the moment.
At least not publicly 😉
Russia has been a pariah state for a very long time and during that time British overseas tax havens and political parties have have zero problem dealing with them or selling them property here in the UK.
They know where the money came from but they held their hands out and received their cut.
We know their technical innovation and skill is top class, at least in some industries and aspects, because for years the Americans were using Russian rockets to launch into space(Soyuzz), and amongst other things,one of the most successful guns on the planet, the AK47. But we also know that Russia has huge reserves of troops, whether conscripts or regular military
This is utter fantasy. There isn't any industry that Russia is top class in. Their military and aerospace has been coasting along on the work the USSR did, but they are utterly dependent on the West for any modern technology. The AK47 was designed in the 1940s (hence the "47" in the name). If Russia had reserves of modern weapons or professional soldiers, they wouldn't be sending untrained conscripts into battle with rusty old WW1 rifles and 60 year old tanks. Russia is a shadow of what the USSR was because Putin and his cronies have plundered everything they could steal.
And to where would they turn?
A significant amount of the developing world is in debt to China already in the same way it (or it’s predecessors were at that stage) were to the US decades ago. That ships long since sailed. And I can’t imagine any countries are looking to jump into bed with Russia at the moment.
China has a very different foreign policy. They don't intervene in others' internal affairs corrupt or not so long as they can maintain their resources consumption. They don't go around telling other countries how to live their lives or their rights whatever.
Countries will not jump into bed with Russia but they will certainly move away from Western influence at every opportunity they can get, especially US petrol currency reserve.
Can US control or tell MBS what to do?
From Bloomberg UK "Saudis Deny Report of Talks on OPEC+ Oil-Production Increase"
From FT: Oil prices whipsaw after Saudi Arabia denies report on Opec supply boost
We know their technical innovation and skill is top class, at least in some industries and aspects.
Ancient history. If their technical innovation is top class, we must have been buying loads of their manufactured goods before sanctions? What does Russia actually export beyond oil, gas and grain? What manufactured products apart from sub par armaments? They can't even make those without German and Swiss CNC machines. They have to import nearly everything they need. They have squandered the technical capability they had under the Soviets. Any bright young things who might try to revive it, have fled the country or been thrown into the meat grinders of Bakhmut and elsewhere.
They don’t go around telling other countries how to live their lives or their rights whatever.
Pretty sure Taiwan would disagree in that point.
This is utter fantasy. There isn’t any industry that Russia is top class in.
They are pretty good at malware.
Although that is probably down in many ways to their software developers not having many legitimate businesses to go and work for instead.
The AK-47 is retired now. They mostly use the AK-74 with a newer version slowly being rolled out.
Pretty sure Taiwan would disagree in that point.
I think Chewk's declared position from earlier in this thread, is that militarily powerful dictatorships are somehow allowed to tell their neighbours what to do. They are entitled to a 'sphere of influence' and those in it just have to suck it up. Ukraine and Taiwan obviously didn't get the memo!
Ancient history.
I agree, they've left the development of the same number a real war mongering power like the US has invested in their military($trilion/year is it?) and due to corruption and the entire communist flaws system have allowed their military might to wane somewhat, but they have kept up in some areas, namely the SU 57 which is considered to be one of the best fighter jets currently out there. So that alone they must have managed to develop and build despite assurances they haven't the capability. T-14 is also said to be a very capable battle tank.
I should avoid thinking Russia have no teeth, it is never wise to ever underestimate an enemy.
We've had a long naval tradition of designing and building, but our current ships seem to spend more time in dry dock than out on patrol.My Dad used to tell me of some of the horrible faults our ships have through very poor design. Seems Russia isnt the only country thats been resting on its laurels.
But all weapons of war have faults, and while on paper they might look to be excellent in design, that is rarely the case when in use.
China has a very different foreign policy. They don’t intervene in others’ internal affairs corrupt or not so long as they can maintain their resources consumption. They don’t go around telling other countries how to live their lives or their rights whatever
Tibet just spat their tea out and fell off their chair
SU 57 which is considered to be one of the best fighter jets currently out there
All 7 of them.
T-14 is also said to be a very capable battle tank.
All 20-odd of them.
Technological excellence is only any good if you can make enough of them to field in adequate numbers, otherwise it's nothing.
China has a very different foreign policy. They don’t intervene in others’ internal affairs corrupt or not so long as they can maintain their resources consumption. They don’t go around telling other countries how to live their lives or their rights whatever
Same could be said of US foreign policy, unless you had resources it needed, or stationed nuclear missiles off the coast of Florida you were pretty safe.
I think Chewk’s declared position from earlier in this thread, is that militarily powerful dictatorships are somehow allowed to tell their neighbours what to do. They are entitled to a ‘sphere of influence’ and those in it just have to suck it up.
I don't think he condones it, he's just saying that's what happens.
