Lots of reports of a large explosion in (or over) Sevastopol. Russia claims to have shot down a drone. From some of the eyewitness reports, this sounds feasible:
"KyivIndependent: The outlet said that a few seconds before the explosion was heard, Krym Realii correspondents heard a sound “similar to the launch of a rocket.”
However, the mere fact that Ukraine can now send drones so deep into Crimea and Russia is going to make the Russians very twitchy. I bet they are seriously regretting their profligate waste of air defence missiles in the ground attack mode.
UK's ordered thousands more NLAWs - link
I'm guessing that there will be other contracts for 155mm shells (just checked, according to the Telegraph there is - link) and any other consumables that we're supplying to Ukraine e.g. Brimstone.
Russia's going to lose a production war sooner rather than later.
However, the mere fact that Ukraine can now send drones so deep into Crimea and Russia is going to make the Russians very twitchy.
Really interesting short analysis (4min 45s) by Peter Zeihan, of what this means strategically for Ukraine. Including his assessment of the Russian target that is most vulnerable and which would have the biggest effect. Spoiler - it's an oil distribution hub fed by pipelines in Siberia serving lots of regional depots which would apparently have a real impact on Russian domestic supply.
Another vid by the same chap, from about 8 moths ago.
Spoiler – it’s an oil distribution hub fed by pipelines in Siberia serving lots of regional depots which would apparently have a real impact on Russian domestic supply.
This is mentioned on here too. about 20mins in.
Siberia, even the closest point is about five times the distance from Ukraine to Moscow. They'd need something intercontinental to go that distance.
Siberia, even the closest point is about five times the distance from Ukraine to Moscow. They’d need something intercontinental to go that distance.
The facility in question (Samara) receives oil from the Siberian oil lines via pipelines, but is itself only 500 miles from Ukraine (according to Zeihan's map). Well within claimed range of the Ukrainian UAV. No ICBMs required.
Just FedEx it
Shopping centre fire and explosion in Moscow. I suspect this is 'just' a fire with some gas cylinders or similar exploding and nothing to do with the war. Quite spectacular though! There's an interesting video further down the thread, where someone wanders round filming 3 months into the war, showing how empty it was due to sanctions. Some speculation on the thread that it might have been an insurance job because of the loss of revenue.
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1601094657748144128?s=20&t=jnCVrY1FYFXbUXwSGWwrAg
Some speculation on the thread that it might have been an insurance job because of the loss of revenue.
That was my first thought too.
The US has endorsed Ukrainian drone strikes within Russia, adjusting its more neutral stance of a couple of days ago https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukraine-drone-warfare-russia-732jsshpx
This might open up the supply of longer-range missiles as well
The US DoD has released another pile of military aid https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3241679/275-million-in-additional-assistance-for-ukraine/ but nothing specifically longer range
President Putin has been playing the protracted nature of this conflict recently, no doubt hoping to split western support as winter bites, so this should slow that rhetoric
It's also the opinion of UK intelligence services that another delivery of Iranian drones to Russia has arrived (MoD Twitter)
An article discussing Russia's relationship with politicians and the war in Ukraine. She is Berlin-based so looks at Germany mainly, but some interesting general insights too https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/politik-gesellschaft/security-expert-we-need-an-international-investigation-of-germanys-russia-ties-li.296074
A neo-Nazi paramilitary group linked to the Kremlin has asked its members to submit intelligence on border and military activity in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, raising concerns over whether far-right Russian groups are planning an attack on Nato countries.
A couple of military barracks struck within Russia. Got to be a big blow severely affecting morale. It’s only been a day since the US said it was ok with targets within Russia being attacked. Also a shift in strategy from ammo dumps to barracks.
Mike Martin is predicting New Year's fireworks.
https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1602614881320148992
He agrees with me 👍🤪 so Ukraine will probably do something unexpected!
How about a river crossing in the far west first, to draw forces away from a Melitopol push, or actually the opposite would work too, maybe?
Anyone seen verification of this?
https://www.newsweek.com/china-russia-loongson-ukraine-war-weapons-1766687
Beijing has reportedly banned the supply of military-grade processors to Russia produced by Chinese company Loongson, in a potential setback to Moscow's war effort in Ukraine.
Good news if true 👍
It's difficult to know how important that is given that the ban isn't specific to just Russia, it's against export of the chips in general and also this from the article:
""This ban is not likely to cause any more severe disruptions, given that Russia has been suffering from this shortage for almost a decade, leading to adaptation," Miron said."
It's one of those articles where the headline is designed to imply more than is actually in the text :(. Starting to get fed up with those (not a complaint against you piemonster, rather against the headline writers)
I imagine Ukraine and the US are trying to figure out what targets Ukraine can strike inside Russia (using Ukrainian drones rather than long range US missiles) without triggering a nuclear response from Russia. Hitting obviously military targets for now but maybe some dual-use stuff after then critical infrastructure.
If Ukraine can push to Melitopol as their main Winter offensive and also hit the Kerch strait bridge again that leaves Crimea massively exposed and Russia would certainly have to withdraw from the Kherson oblast. I can see Crimea being a red line for Putin though.
I thought it was more that the US did not want to get involved in targetting to avoid a response against it/NATO. Which is why it has been reluctant to supply longer range precision weapons which might lead it into getting so involved.
I think as long as they dont use NATO supplied weapons over the russian border then It's kinda check-mate - putin can't claim NATO agression.
Nevermind that russia has litteraly invaded Ukraine, but Ukraine is not NATO.
I can see Crimea being a red line for Putin though.
I can see a red line for everyone else, being when russia suddenly decided half of Ukarine belonged to it, and proceeded to bomb the crap out of Civillians and national infrastucture.
Crimea is fair game for ukraine to push into, if you ask me.
I thought it was more that the US did not want to get involved in targetting to avoid a response against it/NATO. Which is why it has been reluctant to supply longer range precision weapons which might lead it into getting so involved.
I'm not sure there's any evidence of NATO weapons, or NATO weapons supplied to ukraine being used over the border.
Only that the US isn't condeming ukraine hitting back at russia, and why would they?
Hopefully Ukraine is bright enough to be just using it's own weapons to strike over the border into russia. Leaving the donated gear from the EU/US for home defence. Playing Putin at his own game.
A US "defence source" told The Times, "It’s up to them how they use their weapons. But when they use the weapons we have supplied, the only thing we insist on is that the Ukrainian military conform to the international laws of war and to the Geneva conventions" https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukraine-drone-warfare-russia-732jsshpx
The UK has taken this position since April, "Firstly, it's Ukrainians that take the targeting decision, not the people who manufacture or export the kit in the first place. And secondly, it is entirely legitimate to go after targets in the depth of your opponents to disrupt their logistics and supply lines." James Heappey MP
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61226431
The key is defending Ukraine rather than attacking Russia. If striking military targets in Russia stops attacks in Ukraine then it's defensive, what you can't do within international law is hit civilian targets...
The considerations have changed since Russia rowed back on deploying nuclear weapons
I do wonder if the AFU will try a way out there strike Something like a combined parachute drop behind the Russian lines and simultaneous amphibious assult across the Dneipro river Cause mass confusion and split the forces in the area. With modern manportables paras have alot less to fear from armour, till youve fired them all of course.
The mud , if it ever freezes deep enough for tanks not to chew it up , is not going to help.
Probably better to keep hold of what they have , rotate battle weary guys out and home if possible , keep the front lines well supported and continue attrition on teh russians by way of drone bombing or direct fire artilery. Frozen soldiers do not fire back so maybe the weather will have a big impact on the fighting capability of the remaining Rusians. Prob tempt them into surrender by frying bacon along the front wwhen its slighty windy.
Prob tempt them into surrender by frying bacon along the front wwhen its slighty windy.
Remotely of course, to attract bacon-seeking missiles, identify their source and then disable it with your anti-bacon-seeking missile missile.
anti-bacon-seeking missile
BLT - Bacon Locating Technology
This is claimed to not be satire, but to have aired on Russian TV back in 2015. Either way, it's pretty hilarious.
https://twitter.com/justartsndstuff/status/1603113548267372544
https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2022-12-15/amazon-ukraine-war-cloud-data
Since the day Russia launched its invasion Feb. 24, Amazon has been working closely with the Ukrainian government to download essential data and ferry it out of the country in suitcase-sized solid-state computer storage units called Snowball Edge, then funneling the data into Amazon’s cloud computing system.
The data, 10 million gigabytes so far, represent “critical information infrastructure. This is core for operation of the economy, of the tax system, of banks, and the government overall,” he said. The data also include property records whose safekeeping can help prevent theft of Ukrainian homes, businesses, and land.
Some info on Snowball Edge here https://aws.amazon.com/blogs/aws/aws-snowball-edge-more-storage-local-endpoints-lambda-functions/
ISW has been analysing Russia and the war in Ukraine since February
They're becoming increasingly sure that Russia will launch an attack from Belarus towards Kyiv.
Russia has been tightening its grip on media and public information to quell dissent while increasing its forces in Belarus
Their analysis is that current well-publicised Russian air and ground movements don't amount to a serious threat yet and Belarus is split by a large marsh area with Ukraine's border that would limit ground movement.
Russia is also concentrating its forces in the Donetsk and Luhansk
February anniversary assault?
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates
I found this interesting on the wire this morning. gps being interfered with in russia, presumably to prevent ukr drones being effective
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/gps-jamming-interference-russia-ukraine
From that ISW report -
"Russian forces are extremely unlikely to be more successful at attacking northern Ukraine in the winter of 2023 than they were in February 2022".
Must be grim being a Russian recruit dug in for the frozen winter in UKR only kitted out with a army issue t-shirt and flip flops knowing they are just chuck a gps guided HIMARS on you now and then. Russians are going to have to do something just to avoid that being the only statistic on the winter fight.
Russians are going to have to do something just to avoid that being the only statistic on the winter fight.
And there's 300,000 fresh Russian "recruits" currently training, all due to arrive at the battlefield in February 2023. I know it's gone quiet, but I suspect they're not staying in warmth and comfort of a modern barracks, or enjoying challenging outdoor excercise and excercises, with shiny warm winter kit and reliable weapons with lots of ammunition to practice with. A fair few of them appear to be drunks or criminals (or both) and most are really not keen.
And in February some general is due to line them up on a frozen swamp edge in Belarus and ask them to run in, because Ukraine and glory is ahead of them....
Yep. That's going to go rather badly.
And there’s 300,000 fresh Russian “recruits” currently training, all due to arrive at the battlefield in February 2023.
Well if that's common knowledge I guess Ukraine will begin their offensive in January.
I suspect the 300,000 is a made-up figure intended to build support for supplying more weapons, but also used by Putin's useful idiots to argue for cutting support. Either way, the idea that Russia is going to have 300,000 trained soldiers with decent equipment in a couple of months is a joke.
https://twitter.com/general_ben/status/1603830447494266880
Aye, they've proved countless times that they can't adequately move, supply, arm, utilise, lead or train the forces they have. Poor bloody infantry is pretty much the only thing they already have enough of- but logistics is expensive and hard, and leadership and morale and training takes too long. So maybe it looks like more guys is the answer but really it only makes things worse.
I reckon the 300000 thing is just more bullshit frankly but if it's not, it's like having a hammer and treating every problem like a screw.
Yep. That’s going to go rather badly
TLDR: The build-up on both fronts is designed to split support for Ukraine within Europe
Poland continues to push for tougher sanctions and wanted a lower G7 oil price cap, Hungary's PM Orban is obstructive to EU assistance for Ukraine and negotiated sanction exemptions. Countries with the largest economies (and further away from the Russian border), e.g. France and Germany just want it all to go away so that normal service can resume
If Russia can show that they are determined to continue ad infinitum, while controlling their domestic population, then they hope that the EU will fracture and that Russia can gain Luhansk and Donetsk. If that costs thousands of lives then so be it
Russia has massive problems domestically because their working age male population has either fled or been mobilised and their exemptions on mobilisation didn't include most of the occupations needed to maintain normal life.
It was clear in September that Russia already had record employment levels, where will they find more workers?
Russia's only hope is this overt show of determination, because on current form they won't win the fighting
Excellent story on one of Russia's best brigades. They suffered 35% losses in the first three months and never had a chance to regroup and recover. Now it's barely more than a rabble of untrained conscripts.
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1604018360970272769
Excellent in depth review of Russia's failings in Ukraine by the New York Times. It's a long read, but well worth it!
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/16/world/europe/russia-putin-war-failures-ukraine.html
Flung to the ground, a drafted Russian soldier named Mikhail recalled opening his eyes to a shock: the shredded bodies of his comrades littering the field. Shrapnel had sliced open his belly, too. Desperate to escape, he said, he crawled to a thicket of trees and tried to dig a ditch with his hands.
Of the 60 members of his platoon near the eastern Ukrainian town of Pavlivka that day in late October, about 40 were killed, said Mikhail, speaking by phone from a military hospital outside Moscow. Only eight, he said, escaped serious injury.
“This isn’t war,” Mikhail said, struggling to speak through heavy, liquid breaths. “It’s the destruction of the Russian people by their own commanders.”
From that Times article
It also has this, which if true does actually show they expected victory in days
Russian invasion plans, obtained by The New York Times, show that the military expected to sprint hundreds of miles across Ukraine and triumph within days. Officers were told to pack their dress uniforms and medals in anticipation of military parades in the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv.
Something some hadn’t wholly believed in at times
Meanwhile, in Luhansk credible reports emerging that UA have cut highway 66 north of Kreminna. So not just having it under fire control, but actual physical control. This is hugely important as the highway is one of the main logistics routes into Severodonetsk (remember the battles for the RF to take the city?) and into the Donbas front lines.
If true, this means the RF are going to find supporting and supplying their forces even harder than it already is. In addition the UA are closing in on surrounding Kreminna, if they take it then they not only control the road, they also control the railway that runs South from Svatove to Kreminna and through to Severodonetsk and beyond.
On that basis wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the UA effectively cut off Severodonetsk and a chunk of the Donbas sometime soon. Which would effectively force the RF into another Kherson..
