Ukraine

A big bet to have made – and one he may not win.

I think there's every reason to think that he believed all the stuff he was spouting on about the drunkards and neo-nationalists, and that he thought this was just going to be another "special operation". The amount of troops lined up at the start seem to suggest that he was expecting Ukraine to cave in. I'd imagine the forces on the ground were expecting that also given that they paid no attention at all to what they've been doing and seem to be making it up as they go along.

Just imagine, only last week the EU was divided, was signed up to take his gas, in a dither about how to confront him, and thought he was some sort of global power master tactician. This week, he can't move for sanctions, his access to money s drying up,  and most NATO/EU countries are asking how they apply to become Ukrainian.

@matt_outandabout

I doubt we'll ever truly understand the logic of that man.

@nickc poor plan hoping they'd fold, then realising he'd have to commit to something that wasn't particularly well thought out?

I guess internally he can do the default and blame his generals.

It's the line I'd go for if I was in his shoes.- I tried to offer the people of Ukraine a way out of their tyranny but my ham-fisted generals messed it up, not my fault.

It’s the line I’d go for if I was in his shoes.- I tried to offer the people of Ukraine a way out of their tyranny but my ham-fisted generals messed it up, not my fault.

That may have worked up until the bit where he put his nuclear arsenal on special alert...

Pretty sure he could still say it was as a result of their botched operation, he had to take steps to ensure the security of the federation.

I mean, given our recent political issues, it's not fas ar fetched as a 'work party' is it?

I also doubt generals in Russia are quietly retired after bollock drops to write for whatever their equivalent of the Times is and chip off about how they tried to make the President understand it was a bad idea.

A few oligarchs seem to be emerging now calling for peace. Has to at least increase the chances of a cease fire, even if only temporary…

It’s the line I’d go for if I was in his shoes.- I tried to offer the people of Ukraine a way out of their tyranny but my ham-fisted generals messed it up, not my fault.

The much vaunted and feared Russian military, a pillar underwriting Putin's power has just had a very unfavourable light shone on it.  I'm not sure his underlining their failings even further is going to do much to shore up Russian power or his position.

Talks between Ukraine and Russia have started but what do they have to exchange for peace?

Assuming this is how it goes via some representatives.

Putin's team: I want the whole Ukraine and no more NATO membership expansion in Europe. I am now in Ukraine and I can flatten Ukraine.

How should Ukraine response?

I imagine it'll be a straight:

**** off. Probably delivered more politely. Maybe.

I can't imagine Ukraine conceding anything at this stage.

I hear Liz Truss is speaking.

Should I duck and cover?

I doubt we’ll ever truly understand the logic of that man.

I am not so sure. Yes, he has drunk too much of his own kool aid, yes he has created a system around keeping HIM in power at all costs etc.

BUT

There are logical reasons for Russian Federation to feel worried or aggrieved. They have lost huge influence since end of USSR. Their once controlled and 'allied' states are all starting to look west not east - and increasingly distancing themselves from Russia. Ukraine holds key ports to Black Sea (and so rest of world) that are not iced in, has key land links to rest of Europe both for trade AND in the event of war. Ukraine has lots of new(ish) discovered oil reserves, huge food growing potential.

Many of the ex-USSR states had revolutions that were, and still are, an embarrassment to Russia. I mean, the Slovaks got rid through banging keys and pans together outside the Russian's offices and accommodation until basically sleep deprivation took over.* These events are not things they are proud of, and are still recent history.

EU and NATO meanwhile, for all their faults and lack of harmony, was (apart from Brexit) growing in influence and draw for many nations. Right on their border.

Russia meanwhile has huge issues of corruption, greed and criminal behaviour. The resource curse has been biting. They are if anything, compared to EU, going backwards in so many ways.

All the above 'hurts' at a nationalistic, pride of place level.

This invasion - and I suspect the future ones of the Baltic states - is, to his mind, needed.

He has persuaded many that this is the case, and we have decades of mis-information for many Russian citizens to believe what is being said outside of Russia. NATO and EU are genuinely not liked, hated even, by many as they too have drunk the party line all their lives.

In a similar fashion to the response from Snake Island to the Russian naval ship.

@BruceWee Well that's us all effed then. Might have time to dig a shelter if you're quick.

The Ukraine delegation will concede nothing, or certainly non of Putin's main demands.  They are showing willing by attending but I doubt they expect much to come of it.

I'm not sure it's been mentioned / noticed, but it's a very fast moving thing.

The US may not be able or willing to get directly involved with the War (with A10s or not) but it's managed to ban Russia's central bank from US Dollar transactions. This all but stops Russia accessing it's emergency funds. The Rouble is in near free fall, 28% losses today on top of big losses last week, it's stock exchange is facing the same and its banks could feasibly be bankrupt within days.

This is possibly more shocking to me than the War itself, when you piss off the rest of the developed world so much they'll face economic pain just to inflict more on you, I guess you really feel it. This is economic siege warfare.

In a similar fashion to the response from Snake Island to the Russian naval ship.

Was glad to read those guys are still alive, if captured.

**** off. Probably delivered more politely. Maybe.
I can’t imagine Ukraine conceding anything at this stage.

Then why are they talking if both sides don't want to give way?

The Ukraine delegation will concede nothing, or certainly non of Putin’s main demands. They are showing willing by attending but I doubt they expect much to come of it.

Why attend if the outcome is known? i.e. no sides want to give up.

I meant in relation to the way they've planned and executed this operation. Your other points I'd agree with.

It just seems a little half-arsed (which is a bloody good thing for the people of Ukraine) which isn't what I expected. Unless this is all part of the plan.

I am not so sure. Yes, he has drunk too much of his own kool aid, yes he has created a system around keeping HIM in power at all costs etc.

BUT

There are logical reasons for Russian Federation to feel worried or aggrieved. They have lost huge influence since end of USSR. Their once controlled and ‘allied’ states are all starting to look west not east – and increasingly distancing themselves from Russia. Ukraine holds key ports to Black Sea (and so rest of world) that are not iced in, has key land links to rest of Europe both for trade AND in the event of war. Ukraine has lots of new(ish) discovered oil reserves, huge food growing potential.

Many of the ex-USSR states had revolutions that were, and still are, an embarrassment to Russia. I mean, the Slovaks got rid through banging keys and pans together outside the Russian’s offices and accommodation until basically sleep deprivation took over.* These events are not things they are proud of, and are still recent history.

EU and NATO meanwhile, for all their faults and lack of harmony, was (apart from Brexit) growing in influence and draw for many nations. Right on their border.

Russia meanwhile has huge issues of corruption, greed and criminal behaviour. The resource curse has been biting. They are if anything, compared to EU, going backwards in so many ways.

All the above ‘hurts’ at a nationalistic, pride of place level.

This invasion – and I suspect the future ones of the Baltic states – is, to his mind, needed.

He has persuaded many that this is the case, and we have decades of mis-information for many Russian citizens to believe what is being said outside of Russia. NATO and EU are genuinely not liked, hated even, by many as they too have drunk the party line all their lives.

 

Then why are they talking if no sides want to give way?

What makes you think Russia won't give way?

Because you have to start somewhere. Until one side starts to feel the pain more than the other and blinks. That's usually how these things work.

And by pain I mean either the death of more people and/or the economic toll.

Why attend if the outcome is known? i.e. no sides want to give up.

 

What makes you think Russia won’t give way?

I was referring to the answers provided of telling Russia invader to go home.

What will Russia give up for not impacting on Putin's image?

Because you have to start somewhere. Until one side starts to feel the pain more than the other and blinks. That’s usually how these things work.
And by pain I mean either the death of more people and/or the economic toll.

Yes, but what cards are on the table if Ukraine is negotiating at a "disadvantage" at the moment.

Why attend if the outcome is known? i.e. no sides want to give up.

Politics/optics. Allows both sides to plausibly say they tried negotiating and suing for peace but the other side were too intransigent or their demands too outrageous.

Then why are they talking if both sides don’t want to give way?

I think both sides want to seem willing to find peace, Ukraine especially don't want to give Putin a reason to say "I offered them peace talks, but they didn't even show up! Very aggressive"

Edit to say - Ukraine obviously want peace, but know Putin will not offer it without concessions that they will not make.

I was referring to the answers provided of telling Russia invader to go home.

That wasn't your question.

Politics/optics allows both sides to plausibly say they tried negotiating and suing for peace but the other side were too intransigent or their demands too outrageous.

I think Russia is expecting a surrender from Ukraine rather than peace talks if I can assume from the side of aggressor?

I think both sides want to seem willing to find peace, Ukraine especially don’t want to give Putin a reason to say “I offered them peace talks, but they didn’t even show up! Very aggressive”

Who initiated the peace talks at the moment? I doubt it is Russia?

Edit to say – Ukraine obviously want peace, but know Putin will not offer it without concessions that they will not make.

Yes, but what will Ukraine give up to obtain peace? Will Putin accept? Those are questions that interest me.

That wasn’t your question.

Go read my answers again. My understanding of the answers provided was "F off to Russia" in the peace talk. My answer was if they just want to say "F off to Russia" then why have peace talks when none want to give ways?

What makes you think Russia won’t give way?

Nationalistic pride?
Fear of losing face / power?

There's no easy way out:
Withdraw and he's shown the Russian Army to be a paper tiger.
Dig in and the world isolates him and his cronies.
Escalate and face the entire weight of NATO and the US obliterating every last trace of Russian military capability.

Have to be careful that this doesn't tip into something he can't afford to lose which is one reason (amongst many many good reasons) why Liz Truss needs to shut the **** up.

My answer was if they just want to say “F off to Russia” then why have peace talks when none want to give ways?

My original answer to the question stands.

My original answer to the question stands.

I see. Now I see what you mean. Your answer is No Deal. Go home Russian invader. Fair enough. Peace talks end.

Withdraw and he’s shown the Russian Army to be a paper tiger.
Dig in and the world isolates him and his cronies.
Escalate and face the entire weight of NATO and the US obliterating every last trace of Russian military capability.

Still a deadlock by the sound of it.

Or the negotiation can go:

You have Russian foot on the ground. You win there.
We have frozen you economically and financially. We win here.

So ...

Oh God the tv news coverage is so annoying. I just want video, lots and lots of video clips showing everything going on. But no you get 10 seconds of video followed by 10 minutes of analysis from the lecturer in Russian studies from Lincoln uni, who joins us live from his study on his laptop camer, so his stupid face rather alarmingly fills the entire screen of my large television. Honestly so sick of comment from nobodys on Web cams. 😂

Much of the damage to the Russian economy is irreversible. If Putin succeeds in taking Ukraine, he might get away with that. If he fails to take Ukraine, I think he'll know he's doomed, and he's psychopathic enough to take the world with him. We'll have to hope he gets deposed first, or that the people who actually launch the nukes won't follow his instructions.

Germany has suddenly chucked 100m euros at its defence budget too.

That's billions, not millions. And an increase to, from 47 billion.

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220227-germany-to-raise-defence-spending-sharply-in-response-to-putin-s-aggression

Also mentions reliance

He also said that Germany had to move quickly to reduce its dependence on Russia as an energy supplier.

We have to also look towards who has influence over Putin, namely the Chinese.

The Chinese are reliant on the west to sell their goods, so maybe we have to effectively threaten them with a loss of business, which would seriously hamper their economy.

China has been undertaking great civil engineering projects, and to pay for them the money needs to keep flowing it. If we can threaten to disrupt that, perhaps China can mediate between the western nations and the Russians.

We are though going to have to offer Russia something. Not in the form of some country, this can't be Poland at the close of WW2, but maybe an increased seat at the economic table.

Our markets have become reliant on China, and thanks to our own oligarchs our industry was privatized, and then as im sure everyone can remember the asset strippers moved in, before hiding their gains in offshore companies our political parties helpfully allowed to be set up.

It wasn't ever a case of in privatization our industry and larger businesses were going to be invested in to make them the equivalent of other larger economic countries around the world, but more a case of shutting them down and selling off the family silver so to speak, then moving production to the likes of China and other Asian countries, because it was cheaper.

Dump our workforce, pay little corporation tax increase their personal profits. And from there invest in our more corrupt political party for future contracts, which was outsourced to Asia, or wherever was cheapest and then a seat in the house of lords.

We are a rich country, but we have poverty that has only gotten worse over the last 3 or 4 decades, we have a huge military budget, but have stories of our personnel having to borrow kit off the Americans when in Iraq or other conflicts.

Russia may have its oligarchs, and Ukraine does also, but many of our problems, which if didnt exist would have given us more clout int he world is due to our own.

China it appears is being run by them.

If we are to move forward as a nation,and as a people or peoples of the world, we need to move emphasis away from individual wealth of a tiny few, and put it back where it belongs.

I don't think the Ukranian delegation will be telling the Russians to 'go **** themselves'.

If we've learned one thing it's that Zelinsky is extremely smart, I imagine they are going there with a clear set of strategic and tactical options, and will likely be able to adapt their approach depending upon what is put in front of them.

I imagine they have planned thoroughly for the occasion and have considered things that haven't even crossed our minds. If an unexpected opportunity arises during the negotiations then I'm sure they will be agile enough to grab it, however unlikely. Because they will be prepared.

Honestly so sick of comment from nobodys on Web cams. 😂

Can we see the contributors above?

Asking for a friend....

Who initiated the peace talks at the moment? I doubt it is Russia?

It was Russia, widely condemned as a ploy to coerce the Ukrainians into accepting control from Russia in exchange for a cease fire.

We have to also look towards who has influence over Putin, namely the Chinese.

Seriously? You've been banging on for weeks now how it was all that nasty NATO's fault when all along it was China?

Another thought - if there is even a hint of a cease fire I wonder if that would make already sceptical Russian/ Belorussian troops even more reluctant to throw themselves wholeheartedly into the battle for Kyiv?

It was Russia, widely condemned as a ploy to coerce the Ukrainians into accepting control from Russia in exchange for a cease fire.

This looks like Russia has blinked first wanting a way out even they look as if they are "winning", although this does not mean Russia is not expecting Ukraine to surrender etc.

We have to also lok towards who has influence over Putin, namely the Chinese.

You should watch Chinese CCP news briefing (in Mandarin) where they are very vague other than publicly saying they would broker talks (old tricks).

Seriously? You’ve been banging on for weeks now how it was all that nasty NATO’s fault when all along it was China?

You cannot ignore China in this case just like you cannot ignore NATO/EU in Ukraine.

Belarussian troops will resent en masse, they saw what happened to the Chechens and they don't want to be cannon fodder.

The more this goes on the more unrest in Belarus will grow. Belarus could be the weak link for Putin.

The more this goes on the more unrest in Belarus will grow. Belarus could be the weak link for Putin.

It looks like something might happen (just assumption) if Belarusian are made a fool by their President. The Belarus President is not very popular without Putin's backing. Actually, the Belarus President is in a shaky ground if he is not careful.

Finland picks a side…

https://twitter.com/sttuutiset/status/1498254623462805511?s=21

For the above:
“ Government source for BTI: The government is unanimous that Finland will provide arms assistance to Ukraine. These are weapons and ammunition. The issue will be discussed in more detail at tonight's press conference.”

The much vaunted and feared Russian military, a pillar underwriting Putin’s power has just had a very unfavourable light shone on it. I’m not sure his underlining their failings even further is going to do much to shore up Russian power or his position.

On what basis are you making that claim? Ukrainian social media pumping out its own propaganda about Russian losses, or the objective fact that in less than a week Russia hasn't defeated Ukraine?

i_scoff_cake
Free Member
On what basis are you making that claim? Ukrainian social media pumping out its own propaganda about Russian losses, or the objective fact that in less than a week Russia hasn’t defeated Ukraine?

Your suggesting that Putin's war, and military, is doing well then?

Putin has dropped all his demands before talks could commence... And threatens nukes.

Sounds like Putin needs to step away from Ukrainian social media too.😉

Agreed - we do need to be careful, but even being objective it looks like something has gone badly wrong here. If the Russians correct it and capture the cities over the next few days, or even weeks, then maybe we will never find out. But if not, then maybe we will start to see the accuracy, or otherwise of the claims. Also if the losses are as high as claimed then surely some of this must start getting back to relatives and families soon?

Brave move by Finland. It has been said there is no such country as Finland from certain sources. Finlandization is a well known term relating to their history.
When I was there they were a proud independent people who just happen to border Russia.
Good luck to them.

Thanks for posting the machine translation Mashr. Neutrality and non-intervention policies are being ripped up across Europe. And Putin made this happen. There is only one aggressor in this, and he is forcing the rest of Europe into acting against his interests. Even if he does achieve what he wants militarily, he has isolated his country within Europe now for as long as he remains its leader.

, or the objective fact that in less than a week Russia hasn’t defeated Ukraine?

It's being reported the Russians have lost more troops in under a week than they have in 8 years of fighting in Syria, if thats even close to accurate they won't be able to hide it from the Russian public for long no matter how any of this is presented by their state controlled news channels

It’s being reported the Russians have lost more troops in under a week than they have in 8 years of fighting in Syria

It's been reported by Ukraine who isn't trustworthy because they have every incentive to lie to further their own interest.

It’s been reported by Ukraine who isn’t trustworthy because they have every incentive to lie to further their own interest.

It's certainly more plausible than the Russian story of "nothing to see here move along"

It’s been reported by Ukraine who isn’t trustworthy because they have every incentive to lie to further their own interest.

It’s certainly more plausible than the Russian story of “nothing to see here move along”

Fair point.

PCA reporting bridges blown over the Dniepr, and also a 17 mile long convoy spotted moving closer. No independent verification, but if true then the application of that overwhelming force could be about to begin. Terrible for civilians still there.

Will the Russian soliders have their phones? Will they be able to access the internet on Ukranian networks?

Your suggesting that Putin’s war, and military, is doing well then?

It depends what you believe Russian objectives to be, and no one outside the Kremlin can be certain.

From an article in the FT at the start of the Russian invasion :

Western officials fear invasion could devastate eastern Ukraine and leave Kyiv besieged within days.

Kyiv was besieged within days - it's been 4 days since the start of the invasion.

Also from the article :

"They’re making a move on Kyiv. But what they’re going to do in Kyiv is hard to say,” said a senior US defence official.

“It looks like a maximalist approach, but could be a deception strategy to merely take the Donbas,” he continued, referring to the eastern region of Ukraine occupied by Russia-backed separatists.

If some of those assessments in the FT are correct then there is no particular reason to believe that things are going badly for the Russians.

https://www.ft.com/content/948dca16-71b9-42c8-9faa-e66c0a76aca7

This isn't Chechnya, it's unlikely that the Russians are considering flattening Ukraine.

molgrips
Full Member
Will the Russian soliders have their phones? Will they be able to access the internet on Ukranian networks?

I was wondering just that. Calls and texts to home might be a sideways way of the reality reaching home.

an ally Russia trusts, namely China.

Where has this idea that Russia and China are allies come from? They may be some "enemy of my enemy is my friend" going on at the moment due to the childish populist attacks on China lead by Trump over the past 5 years, but China and Russia are not friendly nations and there is very little trust between them.

Will the Russian soliders have their phones? Will they be able to access the internet on Ukranian networks?

well apparently you could see the russian convoys in red on the google maps traffic layer until they turned it off.

Dr. Jeffrey Lewis on Twitter: "According @googlemaps, there is a "traffic jam" at 3:15 in the morning on the road from Belgorod, Russia to the Ukrainian border. It starts *exactly* where we saw a Russian formation of armor and IFV/APCs show up yesterday. Someone's on the move. https://t.co/BYyc5YZsW L" / Twitter

https://www.euronews.com/2022/02/28/ukraine-war-snake-island-border-guards-are-alive-and-well-says-ukrainian-navy

Apparently the island guards are still alive.

However, answer me this. How can idiots like Truss et al, be let anywhere near this world-changing situation?

Sadly we no longer attract ex-diplomats into high political office. They are too smart to get involved with the brain dead.

I dont see Putin being able to retreat back into Russia and being left alone by NATO as if nothing had happened, surely?

Are you suggesting NATO attacks Russia?

i_scoff_cake

It’s been reported by Ukraine who isn’t trustworthy because they have every incentive to lie to further their own interest.

Ok I've got to ask this.

Most on here are supportive Ukraine for pretty self evident reasons.

Can I ask, why are you so determined to see them lose? I think it's a legitimate question to ask at this point.

Please, please don't say you are just "seeking the truth" because it sounds like you are as partisan as the rest of us, just from a polar opposite direction.

seosamh77
Full Memb https://www.euronews.com/2022/02/28/ukraine-war-snake-island-border-guards-are-alive-and-well-says-ukrainian-navy

Apparently the island guards are still alive.

That's bloody fantastic news!

It’s been reported by Ukraine who isn’t trustworthy because they have every incentive to lie to further their own interest.

Even if it is propaganda. Who gives a **** if it helps them defend their country.their families and their nation from the invaders.

Don't lose sight of the enemy here in the seeking of ideals.

It's war . Not playground Tig.

I was wondering just that. Calls and texts to home might be a sideways way of the reality reaching home.

They were making a big deal about the Russian Soldiers having their mobile phones taken from them before they were sent out. I thought that was standard practice whilst in the "warzone" for any soldier from any country ?

The Russian casualty reports are being backed up by Nato, and are going to be ballpark correct. They don't have good morale, and are surrendering in groups after they run out of fuel and get shot up a bit. There's apparently a Facebook page you can go to , and have a look to see if any of the prisoners is one of your relatives.
Mobile phones were banned in the Russian army because of continual security links, but lots of them still have them, and are 'encouraged' when captured to phone home. I can't imagine captured saboteurs will have a very good time of it - not covered by the Geneva convention.

Tough position , can't say no to Putin, but has an unhappy public and an army that's prone to rebelling , so looks like a quick route to the end of a rope if things go wrong, and they probably will.

At this point Putin has achieved Finland ready to join Nato, Ukraine joining the EU and Turkey banning naval passage. Plus losing a lot of troops and demonstrating a lot of their superweapons ain't that great. Top skills! Plus NATO get access to all those knocked out vehicles for testing

Thought it had survived but just heard the (one & only) An-225 was destroyed after all...

https://twitter.com/ukraine/status/1497961514480902148?s=21

🤬

On what basis are you making that claim? Ukrainian social media pumping out its own propaganda about Russian losses, or the objective fact that in less than a week Russia hasn’t defeated Ukraine?

So you implicitly believe Russian propaganda? Putin is the master of lies, his entire life has been devoted to developing asymmetric warfare by using disinformation and outright lying. Just look at the attempted poisoning in Salisbury, which was shown to be hopelessly inept in its execution by supposedly experienced operatives.

The Russians have discovered just how fragile supply trains can be in providing fuel and other essentials, and it’s completely forgotten the lesson Finland taught it during the Winter War, when a much smaller, largely volunteer army, stopped the Russian advance and ultimately sent it back with its tail between its legs - Ukrainian volunteers have access to much better weapons, in particular what is now being referred to as St Javelin, the multi-use shoulder launched anti-tank missile, which Russian armour doesn’t have an effective defence against.

I have no difficulty in believing the number of vehicles destroyed by Ukrainian fighters. I have every confidence that everything that Russian media says is lies and obfuscation - it’s following the processes laid down by the KGB, the FSB and Putin, it’s former director.

If you believe the Russians, then you’re completely deluded, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised that you also believe Trump was America’s greatest president, the world is flat, there is a Man in the Moon, and the Tooth Fairy leaves sixpence under your pillow in exchange for a baby tooth.

If some of those assessments in the FT are correct then there is no particular reason to believe that things are going badly for the Russians.

There are many more experts who believe things are going badly for Russia.

If you believe the Russians

It's not black and white, it never is. Don't you think there could be some grou do in between?

Question everything, even if it comes from the side you like. Which is a lot harder than when it comes from the side you don't like.

CZ - go easy; Father Christmas definitely exists.

There are certain posters, you can guess which side they be cheering for before they have even posted…

Anyone watching channel 4 news right now??

The reporter is going batshit against a Putin apologist.

He's just watched a 6 year old girl die after her flat was shelled....

Can we talk for a moment about the real human cost here, not the high policy stuff?

There are growing numbers of reports of war crimes emerging.
- cluster weapons being used in civilian / residential areas.
- rocket and artillery attacks on residential areas.
- regular, indescriminate firing of single shell's or rockets 'accidentally' into residential blocks.
- criminal behaviour such as murder, bank robbery and theft.

Awful.
Meanwhile we're second guessing PooTin's physchology or praising a millionaires boat getting damp.

🙁

^^ Only one man can stop that.

I agree outs awful but that's why so much of the thread is focused on Putin, sanctions etc etc.

@jekkyl

Oh God the tv news coverage is so annoying. I just want video, lots and lots of video clips showing everything going on.

Here's some actual news:

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=RUB&to=EUR&view=2Y

How long to you think Russia can continue? They may destroy the Ukraine, but they are already utterly buggered for decades.

1 RUB = 0.00849987 EUR

Feb 28, 2022, 19:17 UTC

Ukraine holds key ports to Black Sea (and so rest of world)

Theoretically yes, but,because the route out to the med is extremely dangerous it would make any of his navy trying this route very vulnerable.
But then, in the absence of any other warm water ports, he's a bit screwed.

Following on from the BP announcement I see Shell have severed their links with Gazprom.

Re. the various sporting announcements, come on UCI, ban Gazprom and find homes in other teams for the riders.

1 RUB = 0.00849987 EUR

Sadly the graph looks much more impressive than the actual drop which by my calculation (maybe someone would like to check) is about 20% in the last week.

On what basis are you making that claim? Ukrainian social media pumping out its own propaganda about Russian losses, or the objective fact that in less than a week Russia hasn’t defeated Ukraine?

On the basis that just about every commentator and analyst who isn't Russian has assessed that their progress has been slower and the resistance stronger than they expected and that they have underestimated the logistic effort needed to maintain momentum.

Not just Ukrainian sources but, UK defence intelligence, RUSI, International  Institute for strategic studies, Al Jazeera, Reuters etc.  You are correct in that it is early days and I'm sure the Russians will learn from some of their mistakes and throw greater effort at it, but it is undeniable that things haven't gone the way they planned so far.

They were making a big deal about the Russian Soldiers having their mobile phones taken from them before they were sent out. I thought that was standard practice whilst in the “warzone” for any soldier from any country ?

BBC reporter was in Eastern Siberia earlier, having gone out to a village there specifically to speak to extended family and friends of a Russian soldier who was feeding plenty of information to his family about how frightened he was, that he didn't know why they were in the Ukraine fighting a battle, that they thought they were still in Russia on an exercise until told that they weren't. Mention of Ukrainian people telling them to eff off, throwing themselves in front of their tanks etc... Morale amongst Russian soldiers, those that haven't been bombed back to the dark ages by drone strikes, is not good!

Just think about it... Whilst not every family will have a son in the military, most towns or villages are going to have someone in the military, and any worry fed back to their families and friends by worried soldiers on the front line is going to spread like wildfire!

Even if it is propaganda. Who gives a **** if it helps them defend their country.their families and their nation from the invaders.

War is ALL about propaganda... Winning hearts and minds. Sometimes that means feeding misinformation deliberately, sometimes it means being deliberately honest. It's about picking the information that you share, and how you share it, very carefully... Sometimes, less is more (Putin's approach), but sometimes being up front and honest about what is going on (can't verify exact figures, but this seems to be Zelensky's approach) makes more sense.

Cometh the hour, cometh the man as the saying goes... 3 weeks ago, Zelensky supposedly had a popularity rating of around 30% in Ukraine, now this figure is supposedly around 90%! He was ridiculed for being a comedian and TV star with no experience of politics, but maybe that's exactly what is needed right now as he has a clear grasp on how to galvanise his population and is doing an exceptional job of improving morale by showing his passion for the cause.

In stark contrast, is Putin's stoicism and belligerent "Cold war-esque" approach (hardly surprising, given his roots) that cedes nothing to anyone, seemingly even his closest advisors, going to be his ultimate undoing...?

CZ – go easy; Father Christmas definitely exists.

Oops, sorry, forgetting the children, now edited! ☺️ 🧑‍🎄

Russia continues to make outlandish threats to the rest of the world! Putin risks making his country a global pariah, not the great reconstruction of the Russian Empire, with himself as Czar that he really imagines.

Theoretically yes, but,because the route out to the med is extremely dangerous it would make any of his navy trying this route very vulnerable.
But then, in the absence of any other warm water ports, he’s a bit screwed.

I believe Turkey has already closed off that route, as it controls the Bosporus.