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There are live feeds from st Petersburg protesting that's brave very brave
timbog160
Full MemberChernobyl? I mean why on Earth would you want to capture Chernobyl!?
For the Artifacts obviously.
whilst I don’t know much about the Ukrainian government I don’t think they are as bad and I do not get the impression the Ukrainians need saving from them. Although I’m happy to be corrected here.
Totally agree, but that's just a question of optics when you start launching unprovoked invasions. But you're right, no need to go off-topic.
Didn't the US sponsor the overthrow of the democratically elected government in an illegal coup in 2014? After the War on Terror, etc., Libya "intervention" I just tuned out and stopped paying attention to all that stuff. A lot of has been going on in the Ukraine for a while now. I'm largelty ignorant of it.
The media portrays Putin as a lone wolf acting with execuative power, but perhaps recent geopolitical events allowed him to present a credible case to his generals and military for such a significant attack, given the political and economic costs must have been clear to see. I suppose that's all conjecture at this point.
I read something on the news saying that they weren't going to exclude Russia from Swift 'yet' and that sanctions against Putin personally remain an option.
Given what has unfolded today, could someone less ignorant than me explain why we haven't done that yet? Surely there is justification for hitting them as hard as possible with every sanction we have available? Is it a symbolic thing so that in a few weeks time, if Putin hasn't seen the error of his ways, we have something to escalate to?
I've been wondering about that too^^
Mainly, why are people focusing on SWIFT so much as well as why no-one will use it as part of the sanctions
The media portrays Putin as a lone wolf acting with execuative power, but perhaps recent geopolitical events allowed him to present a credible case to his generals and military for such a significant attack
I'm content in my knowledge that it's the former
SWIFT - an explainer.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/feb/24/what-is-swift-international-payments-network-russia-sanction
Surely there is justification for hitting them as hard as possible with every sanction we have available?
I’d guess that if you hit Putin with every possible sanction from the start and he still ignores you where do you go from there? Only option then is direct conflict.
$650bn in foreign currency reserves; oil and exports still flowing generating more hard currency.
That gives putin something of a financial/economic buffer.
Then consider that Vlad is viewed as the wealthiest person in the world so he could chip in...
I fear it's only going to take one incident involving a NATO asset to start the next world war. Accidental or not, I think the fuse is getting very close to the fire.
I suppose it depends on how sane Putin is; he might have completely lost the plot. He’s also got a lot of nukes.
Not very, it would seem. And yeah. More nukes than the US.
stcolin
I fear it’s only going to take one incident involving a NATO asset to start the next world war. Accidental or not, I think the fuse is getting very close to the fire.
I would think (and hope) that the adults in the room would do everything they could to avoid that.
Amazing to see footage of the protests in Russian cities. I think the biggest thing we can all do now as little people is share the shit out of that stuff whenever we see it.
Can the gov confiscate (not just freeze) the Russian assets in London, in a similar way to the police can recover assets from criminals? I wonder if that would have more leverage than just putting a hold on moving the assets.
StuF - I think the closest they can get (at present) is using Unexplained Wealth Orders.
@nexta_tv on Twitter is worth a look too.
I would think (and hope) that the adults in the room would do everything they could to avoid that.
That would mean one side has to give way but as we know Putin is not the one.
The only way to prevent Putin demanding more is for the West to beef up like it or not, otherwise it will happen again and again.
Re. SWIFT. I’m working on a system that uses SWIFT at the moment. It can’t be underestimated how important this is to the moving of money across the globe.
If Russia were to be removed from Swift their banks would have no money within days.
However, a lot of that money that won’t get through is for payment for Oil and gas. So, Russia will simply stop supplying it. Hence the reticence from Europe.
There is also an already real cyber threat to our financial systems that will multiple ten fold if they are removed.
Interestingly china and Russia are working together to build a rival to Swift that will allow them to trade with no reliance on the west…..
I would think (and hope) that the adults in the room would do everything they could to avoid that.
I'm assuming that the red button is metaphorical and not an actual trigger.
So if Putin gave the order to fire would the guy in charge of the missiles have the courage to say no to him? If he did would he just be replaced by someone who would say yes?
Or would those in the upper echelons say 'you've gone too far now, out!' and if so who would do that and who would take over?
Follow Dr Peter Caddick-Adams on Twitter Military Historian/advisor
PCA!
Seems It's 1939 world war II has kicked off, Ferdinand Porsche is living the high life in good ol' london town chumming around with Chamberlin and Co while tanks built in his factories are rolling across Poland.
Interesting that Biden seemed to imply that the reticence on SWIFT was driven by European concerns. Have seen some reports of reluctance on the part of Germany and Italy in particular on this.
Didn't know whether to put this here or on the F1 thread but Haas F1 are removing all Uralkali sponsor branding from their car for tomorrow's final day of testing in Barcelona.
No news on whether they will be ditching the sponsor altogether.
No chance.
timbog - yeah, saw those comments about Germany and Italy.
The Italian concern appears to be based on their luxury goods sector; target market definitely won't be your average Russian.
That sort of attitude stinks and should be called out - as should any other country or business which attempts to svoid their moral responsibilities and obligations.
I fear it’s only going to take one incident involving a NATO asset to start the next world war.
Seriously, try not to worry. I’m not a major proponent of deterrence theory or MAD but I do believe in common sense. It’s a shit situation but it’s a long way away from a NATO vs Russia hot war. As mad as Putin is he has far more to lose from attacking nato than he has to gain from taking over Ukraine. He knows that, his generals know that, and all the oligarchs who keep him in power know that. Putin is not omnipotent, and he’s not going to risk losing his own power by attacking NATO.
I think Daz has that right, although he seems to have gone raving mad, he must know that attacking a NATO country would be sucicidal. I’m sure he is expecting a walkover in Ukraine (a lot are to be fair). Every day the Ukrainians can hold out will weaken his position.
Every day the Ukrainians can hold out will weaken his position.
Newsnight say the UK assessment is that the harder the Ukrainians fight the harsher the Putin onslaught will be. Based on the assessment they are fighting hard it's going to be terrible unless someone in Russia takes Putin out
Western sanctions are weak and arguably push cash back into Russia as we still buy the commodities, until the realisation hits that we need to take pain to inflict pain it's not going to work
I’m assuming that the red button is metaphorical and not an actual trigger.
So if Putin gave the order to fire would the guy in charge of the missiles have the courage to say no to him? If he did would he just be replaced by someone who would say yes?
Not sure but someone got to press something to launch. Yes, the no person will be replaced and probably his/her entire family too.
Or would those in the upper echelons say ‘you’ve gone too far now, out!’ and if so who would do that and who would take over?
I doubt anyone of them will say anything to avoid putting themselves in harms way.
Newsnight say the UK assessment is that the harder the Ukrainians fight the harsher the Putin onslaught will be. Based on the assessment they are fighting hard it’s going to be terrible unless someone in Russia takes Putin out
I am not surprised with Putin tactics.
Interesting development at Chernobyl, previously thought to be in Russian control but now saying staff are being held ‘hostage’. Why do you need to hold hostages if you are in control?
I doubt anyone of them will say anything to avoid putting themselves in harms way.
It's "Death of Stalin" like, if they think others will follow they will lead, otherwise no-one moves as they are terrified
So if putin takes all or part of Ukraine;
does 'the West'/NATO just say...OK vlad, can we just leave it here - please?
With every passing minute where putin is not forcefully challenged, he feels more empowered.
There is no meaningful domestic opposition to him.
If he dies soon, irrespective of how, who is his likely successor?
What do we know about them?
Are they a putin mini-me?
Will there be a power vacuum?
This is a stark illustration of the emptiness of western foreign policy.
Will the US now pivot away from their far eastern focus to revitalise NATO?
To date, putin and Xi have
out-manoeuvered the west/NATO.
It’s “Death of Stalin” like, if they think others will follow they will lead, otherwise no-one moves as they are terrified
Yes, because most people fear consequences so rather sit through it in the hope that something good will appear at the end of the tunnel. They just cling on ...
So if putin takes all or part of Ukraine;
does ‘the West’/NATO just say…OK vlad, can we just leave it here – please?
Nope! He wants to recreate Soviet Union (CCCP) version II with him as their idol. Version I was a failure so thinking version II might be more advanced with new technology etc.
To date, putin and Xi have out-manoeuvered the west/NATO.
They have indeed. People just can't be bothered with them so while life goes on they make their own preparation (underhand tactics).
To date, putin and Xi have
out-manoeuvered the west/NATO.
Probably a correct observation, we are too worried by issues that don't even register with these two and lack strategic vision by virtue of the need to win elections fought on short term issues
big'n'daft - your comment 'take pain to inflict pain'
Would you rush to the front line or encourage your children (if you have any) to do the same?
If not, why post an otherwise stupid and pointless comment.
You may be a 5* General or know the colour of the boat House in Hereford but...
lack strategic vision by virtue of the need to win elections fought on short term issues
What, short term issues like democracy, the rule of law, habeas corpus and protecting fundamental human rights?
It’s much easier to drive aggressive, expansionist policies if you’re willing to flout international law and subject your citizens to medieval levels of torture and subjugation.
Would you rush to the front line or encourage your children (if you have any) to do the same?
I was only talking about higher gas bills and the financial risk c£45 billion for some countries if they close the swift system
If not, why post an otherwise stupid and pointless comment.
Hence why it's not
You may be a 5* General or know the colour of the boat House in Hereford but…
LOL, I don't even play Call of Duty
What, short term issues like democracy, the rule of law, habeas corpus and protecting fundamental human rights?
Your strength is "democracy".
Their strength is "order".
"Fluidity" vs "form"
"Chaos" vs "order"
It’s much easier to drive aggressive, expansionist policies if you’re willing to flout international law and subject your citizens to medieval levels of torture and subjugation.
I agree, which is why they can lie with a straight face and say black is white etc
@frankconway it was a comment on the implications of sanctions on our own economy. I.e. that if sanctions are effective on Russia then they are also going to inflict pain in the UK