Or a Russian false flag op.
Attacking NATO-country ships carrying non-Russian crude may be a strategy that comes back to haunt them.
This.
However, it's potentially massively-nuanced. No serious damage, no injuries and no accusations attached to Ukraine, who haven't fessed up.
Kazakhstan has alternative export routes that don't involve payments to Russia, but they're more costly, e.g. cross the Caspian Sea into the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline between Azerbaijan and the Med
Most interestingly- Greek owned.
Turkiye continues to complain about attacks on shipping in the Black Sea, but relations with Greece have always been fraught.
But, there was a bit of a thaw in 2025, but the C in BTC is Ceyhan, Turkiye, so they'll be paid, but who knows? 🤔
Greece has been a major enabler of the shadow fleet, so maybe a warning shot to them ???
Ooops, missed this bit, this too.
The prospect of peace through Russia's oil exports being curtailed are (almost) universal grounds for forgiveness
Greece has been very naughty, transferring Russian oil to their ships in the ocean, avoiding sanctions. Shocking behaviour!
Will it blow back on Ukraine? Maybe the rest of Europe will think that Greece had it coming for being sanction busting ******s ?? False flag seems a stretch, as this harms Russia a lot.
Greece has been very naughty,
"Greece"? Sounds like a football team. Who are you actually talking about?
An opinion piece by Inal Sherip, a former minister of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria in exile, on the possibility of clan warfare within Russia's leadership. I suggest that you read the full article, which is about Chechnya under Ramzan Kadyrov (link below).
It's interesting because Kadyrov is a Russian asset who is now ill in Moscow, reportedly with acute pancreatic necrosis and kidney problems.
Since the linked article was written, Kadyrov's chosen successor, his son Adam Kadyrov, was reportedly involved in a serious car crash yesterday and is being air-lifted to a Russian hospital.
"If the FSB has managed to break Kadyrov’s resistance and lock Daudov into the premiership, the probability of a power transfer to him rises sharply: The security services almost never invest in “temporary” figures. By installing Daudov, the FSB does not merely gain a manageable republic – it shifts the balance in Moscow, prying from Zolotov’s* hands one of his important instruments."
"That is why a “small” black swan – something like Kadyrov’s death – can become not merely an issue of cadre selection but a trigger that sets off a chain reaction: clan warfare, redistribution of resources, collapse of the accustomed balance, and – over time – the beginning of the disintegration of Putin’s system itself." https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/67997
I believe that President Putin is too strong for this to be a reality, but that's only my opinion.
*Viktor Zolotov is Commander of the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardiya), a military unit created by President Putin. Zolotov is hugely trusted as responsible for the security of President Boris Yeltsin and now Putin.
Some Rosgvardiya units invaded Ukraine during the failed three-day SMO, but in a supporting role. Zolotov was one of the few leaders who came out of the SMO well, simply because Rosgvardiya is about the security of the Kremlin and wasn't involved either in intelligence or its planning.
He later benefitted from the chaos caused by Prigozhin’s mutiny with an increase in the strength of the Russian National Guard, while other branches of security (e.g. FSB) and military operations were still jockeying to regain influence following the failure of the SMO.
President Macron and PM Meloni want to re-open dialogue with Russia on Ukraine, a move welcomed by Russia.
Yvette Cooper has refused to engage until she sees signs of Russia welcoming peace.
President Macron wasted six months until September 2022 attempting the diplomatic route with President Putin.
"The Kremlin said Friday it considered calls by some European states to resume dialogue with Russia as “positive”, after French and Italian leaders called for re-engagement with Moscow on Ukraine." https://www.kyivpost.com/post/68198
Russia's finances reportedly continue to erode, not helped by China's 25-year contract with Russia’s Inter RAO to buy electricity falling apart after only 14 years.
It says something about the relationship when China feels under no contractual pressure and can back out halfway through; they clearly don't expect to get hit for compensation, despite not meeting even minimum agreements for the supply.
I wonder if losing O&G production to Ukraine's attacks has caused the price of Russian electricity generation in the east to rise above that of China's domestic industry.
"Falling Russian oil and gas revenues and Russia’s continued depletion of its liquid reserves will likely complicate Kremlin efforts to fund a protracted war in Ukraine. Bloomberg reported on January 15 that Russian oil and gas revenues in 2025 dropped to a five-year low amid declining gas exports due to Western sanctions and falling crude oil prices. The Russian Ministry of Finance stated on January 15 that Russia’s federal budget received a total of 8.48 trillion rubles (roughly $108 billion USD) in oil and gas taxes in 2025, which Bloomberg noted is a decrease of 24 percent compared to 2024. Bloomberg noted that Russia’s federal budget received fewer rubles for each barrel produced and sold in 2025 due to the strengthened ruble. The strengthened ruble increased Russia’s purchasing power on the global market, making parallel imports cheaper amid Western sanctions, but had adverse effects on Russia’s export profits. Russia’s oil and gas revenues accounted for roughly 30 percent of Russia’s total federal revenues in 2024 but fell 22 percent year on year in 2025. Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov acknowledged in September 2025 that Russian authorities expect the share of Russia’s revenues from oil and gas sales to fall by roughly 30 percent in 2026."
"Russia has also gradually depleted its liquid reserves over the last four years of its war in Ukraine. Bloomberg reported that Russia has spent more than half of its sovereign wealth fund to bridge the widening gap between revenues and spending and has turned to expensive borrowing that will take years to pay back."
"Insufficient infrastructure investments in Russia’s Far East are likely hurting Russian economic agreements with the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Russian state business outlet Kommersant reported on January 16 that the PRC halted electricity purchases from Russia as of January 1 after Russian export prices rose above domestic Chinese prices for the first time. Kommersant stated that the PRC refused to purchase the minimum contracted volumes under its long-term agreement, despite the contract running through 2037."
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-16-2026/
Stronger action from Europe on the "shadow fleet". Rather than looking at what the law says that they can't do, politicians have decided to run with the letter of the law and what they can do.
Germany has the Kadet Trench in its waters, a channel of deep water in the otherwise fairly shallow Baltic Sea that it can exploit to good effect
"German media outlet Tagesschau said German police dispatched a helicopter to Tavian and asked to see the vessel’s registration document.
It was after the federal police ascertained that the tanker was sailing under a false flag and had forged its identity that it was ordered not to enter German waters, and subsequently made the U-turn, Tagesschau reported.""Technically the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea allows boarding of stateless vessels. However, political concerns regarding Russian reprisals in the Baltic have allowed a steady of flow of tankers with no official certification to sail unchecked beyond requests to provide known fake certificates."
"Preventing Tavian from entering German waters in this case was sticking to the letter of UNCLOS. Rather than being hindered by the law, Peters said Germany was now being empowered by it."
"But Germany could have a particularly interesting role, Peters said, given that the Kadet Trench, a channel of deep water in the otherwise fairly shallow Baltic Sea that most tankers have to use on their way in or out of the Kattegat, runs partly through its waters."
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1156094/Growing-stateless-shadow-fleet-transits-sparks-stronger-action-from-Europe
I think that Hulyaipole is now at a late stage, although a change in the weather to allow drone operations will be helpful to the defenders. Reinforcements from the Sumy area have already been deployed
Unfortunately, despite additional reinforcements gained from the partial withdrawal from Myrnohrad, Hulyaipole is again looking a bit dodgy for Ukraine.
Russian forces seem to be building both there and towards Pokrovsk, another dodgy part of the front
ta timba
not sure how true this is, but Macron said this week that France was now supplying 2/3rds of Ukraines intel via intercepts
. https://bsky.app/profile/aphclarkson.bsky.social/post/3mcp5rpw3hk2k
A new low if true 🙁
not sure how true this is, but Macron said this week that France was now supplying 2/3rds of Ukraines intel via intercepts
Macron might be exaggerating un peut,
The comments are in contrast to Kyrylo Budanov, who was appointed head of Zelenskiy's office and is the former chief of Ukraine's military intelligence, who said in December that Kyiv was critically dependent on Washington for intelligence ranging from satellite imagery to early warning systems after ballistic missile launches.Ukraine's GUR military intelligence agency declined to comment.A French defence ministry official declined to comment specifically on the president's assertions, but said much of the intelligence was of technical origin. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/macron-says-france-now-providing-two-thirds-intelligence-ukraine-2026-01-15/
"Ukrainian intell services sent false strategic info to US intell services ... and observed
that the information had been relayed to
RUS and was used by RUS forces."
Shades of Wagatha Christie !!
"Russian opposition outlet Vazhnye Istorii reported on January 23 that a source close to the Kremlin and the ruling United Russia party stated that the Kremlin is working to find a solution to possible succession problems in Chechnya against the backdrop of reports that Kadyrov is seriously ill and that his son and possible successor, 18-year-old Adam, was recently in a car accident." (reported ^^)
"The Kremlin may not have sufficient forces to handle any future unrest emerging from internal Chechen power struggles while also maintaining its current deployments in Ukraine. The Kremlin is likely to prioritize finding a solution to Chechen succession issues that avoids the potential for regional unrest."
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-23-2026/
Full article from the NY Post, which I guess was embargoed for a week
New York Post: Nearly four years into war, Russia has gained little — and Ukraine keeps bouncing back, despite some 2 million draft dodgers
Op Ed, Jan 17, 2026
https://understandingwar.org/newsroom/new-york-post-nearly-four-years-into-war-russia-has-gained-little-and-ukraine-keeps-bouncing-back-despite-some-2-million-draft-dodgers/
The Zampotech Charity repairs and donates vehicles to Ukraine's armed forces.
Ihor Omelyanovich started the work in 2014 with ambulance conversions, went to charity status in 2022 and now provides a frontline repair and mobile tyre fitting service, which is pretty impressive
Their latest project is recycling the Chinese-made MD550 engines from crashed Russian Shahed drones. Several engines and a couple of weeks later they have around £10k worth of working engine, but you'll need Facebook to see more on that specific project
Kinda belongs here due to the European Russia sections but involves everywhere really. 2026 US Defence Strategy
But you know....
We will engage in good faith with our neighbors,
from Canada to our partners in Central and South America
Stefan Korshak posts:
Good round up of events in Jan. 22, 2026 - Day 1,428 - Bombardment and Shock, Frozen Front, Swamp Economy.
Various realities uncovered, e.g. 600,000 people didn't leave Kyiv, they just switched their phones off to save battery life, etc. https://stefankorshak.substack.com/p/jan-22-2026-day-1428-bombardment
And personal thoughts in Jan. 23, 2025 - Day 1,429 - A quick note about Davos
The choice of summary paragraphs is mine,
"I served in the US military, alongside NATO allies during the Cold War, in Germany."
"During the Afghanistan War I saw those NATO allies on the ground alongside US troops. Where I was it was IASF: Danes, Norwegians, Swedes, Croats and Czechs; and less frequently Spaniards, Italians and Lithuanians. They didn’t have to be there. They volunteered, every one of them.
I am of course shocked and mortified that the US President, draft dodger that he is, spat upon those allies’ sacrifices. I am sorry that I have lived to see a day when the leader of the United States sees fit to ignore the hard battles, the deaths, wounds, amputations, broken families and hundreds of new graves in peaceful countries that hadn’t seen war for generations, just so he could spout at the mouth and score a domestic political point, or two."
https://stefankorshak.substack.com/p/jan-23-2025-day-1429-a-quick-note
The EU seem to be making some progress on the India trade deal. I think I saw of Reuters there's a notable defense sector element to this that mentioned India becoming an ammunition supplier.
A DW video suggested both parties were looking to de-risk, India from Russian arms, and Europe from the US and China.
This is obviously all on EU progress time scales.
Edit https://www.dw.com/en/eu-india-set-for-historic-trade-deal-amid-us-tariffs/a-75638454
For its part, India hopes to supply the EU with ammunition, much needed in Ukraine, and could potentially free up European supplies to send across to Kyiv.
^ the pen and 'soft power' could get us a lot lot further than the physical battlefield will in this situation. We need to be creative - block every shadow tanker, carve up better deals with 'allies' of Russia, ban all Russian entry to any country we can etc etc.
The EU seem to be making some progress on the India trade deal. I think I saw of Reuters there's a notable defense sector element to this that mentioned India becoming an ammunition supplier.
India has been supplying artillery shells and other items to Ukraine since 2023, via third parties in Europe. India has also sold empty artillery shells for "western" manufacturers to fill with explosive and manufacture propellant, etc.
Much of this was tied to 's initiative to supply Ukraine after the EU initiative failed to deliver because of arguments over exclusively-EU supply. A year later supplied more than promised (up to 1.6mn rounds depending on who you believe) while the EU was still hadn't reached anything like that amount.
used companies that it already had contacts with, including its own manufacturers and intermediaries, which led to a variety of allegations against the scheme relating to cost, commissions, quality, etc. but most haven't been proved with QA only true for occasional batches.
A DW video suggested both parties were looking to de-risk, India from Russian arms, and Europe from the US and China.
This is obviously all on EU progress time scales.
For its part, India hopes to supply the EU with ammunition, much needed in Ukraine, and could potentially free up European supplies to send across to Kyiv.
The de-risking idea is going to be a slow-burn.
Europe has recently exceeded the manufacturing capability of the US for artillery rounds, but that's about it. France and Germany can't even agree on their Future Combat Air System.
REMs are almost exclusively extracted in China for processors, motors, etc. The "west" can mine them but the most effective methods of extraction are only available in China against a background of lower environmental controls.
India is likely to be buying from Russia for some time, not helped by President Trump whacking them, but not China, with massive tariffs for buying Russian oil.
In August 2025, PM Modi postponed the purchase of Stryker vehicles, Javelin anti-tank missiles and Boeing aircraft over tariffs. A gradual thaw has led to a partial resumption in November with agreement on Javelin missiles https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdeger2k625o
Russia owes India two (out of five) S400 AD missile systems from 2023, so they'll be buying spares for these and other systems for at least a decade. Export missiles, probably intended for India, have been used to strike Ukraine https://en.defence-ua.com/news/russia_used_export_s_400_missiles_likely_intended_for_india_against_targets_in_ukraine-17255.html
I think that it's clear that Russia is innovating drone warfare far more than western militaries, even while under tech sanctions. They're upping their game and recruiting a cohort of the best and brightest direct from Universities.
More "conventional" weapons seem to be taking a back seat because the budget only stretches so far; serial numbers on missiles used in strikes on Ukraine indicate low stock with production sometimes shortly before use while stored armoured vehicles and guns have all but disappeared.
Russian Geran/Shahed and, more recently, Molniya drones have been found with Starlink terminals attached, while Ukraine has equipped sea drones with the terminals https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russia-starts-installing-starlink-on-molniya-1766396882.html
The terminals allow for greater range and are relatively immune to electronic warfare. They've also been subject to controversy with Elon Musk rejecting Ukraine's request for coverage in Sevastopol to launch an offensive there in 2023.
In January 2023 he said, "we are not allowing Starlink to be used for long-range drone strikes".
The Russian BM35 drone aircraft is a new development with Starlink and sanctioned parts from Europe, the US and far east and is a similar delta-wing design to the Geran/Shahed drone. It has a front-mounted engine rather than rear-mounted and other differences. It also has a range of 500km, which is surely a "long-range drone strike", equal to some cruise missiles.
Starlink has been searching for a solution to the unauthorised use of terminals since late 2024, but hasn't demonstrated a lasting fix
"This strike comes less than two weeks after Beskrestnov reported the first recorded usage of Starlink-equipped BM-35 drones on January 15. (Ukrainian Ministry of Defense advisor on defense technology and drone and electronic warfare (EW) expert Serhiy “Flash”) Beskrestnov noted that the BM-35 drone is more fuel efficient than Russian Molniya fixed-wing first-person view (FPV) drones and has a range of up to 500 kilometers."
"Russian forces appear to be increasingly relying on Starlinks to increase the range of operation of strike drones while increasing drone resilience against Ukrainian EW. The reported 500-kilometer range of Starlink-equipped BM-35 drones places most of Ukraine, all of Moldova, and parts of Poland, Romania, and Lithuania in range of these drones if launched from Russia or occupied Ukraine."
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-26-2026/
Russia’s Largest Private Oil Company Demands a Bailout
"Lukoil is petitioning the Russian government to change its tax rules because the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine has sent global prices per barrel plummeting. Foreign buyers have been sniffing for a deal." https://www.kyivpost.com/post/68831
Europe is cranking up the pressure on the "shadow-fleet" by boarding tankers where the law allows and in response Russia is putting the miles on its naval fleet by increasingly escorting its tankers past Europe and the UK.
European states call for shadow fleet safety action:
States issue warning to stateless and flag-hopping shadow fleet operators
Ships not meeting global rules may be subject to boarding
Governments call for rapid development of alternative navigation systems to address routine spoofing of shadow fleet
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1156177/European-states-call-for-shadow-fleet-safety-action
We've seen temporary reductions in Russian crude oil imports by India before; the oil companies assess sanctions, recalibrate and resume. We'll see,
India’s Russian crude oil imports fall as new EU sanctions on oil products kick in:
December imports hit a low not seen in more than three years
New sanctions on products made from Russian crude are prompting Indian refiners to seek alternative feedstocks to maintain exports to Europe
Imports into sanctioned Vadinar, home to Russia-owned sanctioned refinery Nayara, remain firm
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1156169/India%E2%80%99s-Russian-crude-oil-imports-fall-as-new-EU-sanctions-on-oil-products-kick-in
The Baltic Sea is to be closed to the Russian shadow fleet, excellent news, 3 years too late of course 🤷♂️
Poland’s Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski and Elon Musk have been trading insults for a year over Ukraine's access to Starlink, which is paid for by Poland.
Yesterday's spat culminated in Musk calling Sikorski a “drooling imbecile” last night,
Elon Musk called Poland’s Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski a “drooling imbecile” on Wednesday after Sikorski shared a report from the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) showing that Russian forces are increasingly using Starlink satellites to guide drone attacks on Ukraine.
I guess that includes me for daring to share the report with STW^^. Comments not required 😀
Shares of Franco-British satellite operator Eutelsat, a potential alternative, surged as much as 650% in early March 2025, reflecting investor interest in satellite communications amid the war. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/68933
Eutelsat doesn't have anywhere near the same bandwidth capability as Starlink and its ground terminals are bigger, more complex, much more expensive and around 10x the weight. That's two gallons of water that a drone can't carry to troops, or an anti-tank mine that can't be delivered.
The Intellian Compact Flat Panel for Land Mobility is 560 x 450 x 120 mm (22” x 17.7” x 4.7”) and 12.2kg (26.9lb) https://intelliantech.com/en/products/eutelsat-oneweb-series/ow10hv#
The Starlink Mini terminal is 298.5 x 259 x 38.5 mm (11.75" x 10.2" x 1.45") and a measly 1.1kg (2.43lb) https://starlink.com/gb/specifications?spec=5
The Baltic Sea is to be closed to the Russian shadow fleet, excellent news, 3 years too late of course 🤷♂️
I agree that it's too late, but it's been discussed for a few years and a "closure" isn't legal. It also includes the North Sea.
The US isn't going to bring peace any time soon, IMHO. The noises coming from the UAE are that neither Ukraine nor Russia will be satisfied with the peace deal; both Ukraine and Russia will need to give up territory that they currently occupy. NATO expansion isn't addressed to Russia's satisfaction and Ukraine won't get a defence agreement before signing up to cede territory.
The "closure" is a European effort, with Iceland, to bring the war to a conclusion through economic pressure before the US throws a major spanner in the works with threats to force Ukraine's hand.
The Coastal States of the Baltic Sea and the North Sea have posted a background to action, which is basically around safety concerns, and will take action accordingly https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-growing-risks-to-maritime-safety/the-growing-risks-to-maritime-safety
Legally it's better if there are firm safety concerns, e.g. to cables, environmental damage, etc, rather than flags and transponder issues. Successful boarding in the Baltic has been undertaken, which has proved to be non-escalatory, but always in concert with cable investigations.
The problem is that action without firm accusations often leads to escalation, e.g. the attempt by Estonia to detain the tanker, Jaguar, in May led to Russian fighter aircraft intervening. The tanker refused to stop and Estonia didn't have boarding capability so escorted it to Russian waters.
More Russian tankers are now being escorted by Russian navy vessels so escalation is more of a threat than if this had been done years ago.
Denmark's Maersk group could get caught up in retaliatory moves, which is a consideration probably shared with shipping lines in other Baltic and North Sea states.
I'll see how this one develops, but the outcome of the first military escalation will be key
The ‘closure’ will only affect ships flouting the rules, so there is a legal basis. The ships flouting the rules are the shadow fleet. Sure the Russian navy will escort some of the tankers,- but this must increase the cost of delivery, right? And surely they can’t escort every ship!
I agree that there's a legal basis, but I remain to be convinced of how the plan will survive its first escalation
(see page 2)
While the letter stops short of threatening more direct vessel boardings, government officials behind the letter have warned that “coastal states have the right to react if these requirements are not met”.
We'll see I suppose!!!
Starlink has been searching for a solution to the unauthorised use of terminals since late 2024, but hasn't demonstrated a lasting fix
Ukraine has announced today that Starlink is looking at this again https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/ukraine-and-spacex-seek-solution-to-russian-1769696180.html
They get a pass for grammar!
No wonder President Zelensky was exasperated at the Davos summit, which ended 23rd January
23rd Jan
"The BBC understands that the UK government received legal assurances earlier this month that such vessels can be detained. Yet 42 sanctioned tankers tracked by BBC Verify passing through the English Channel did so after that advice was received."
"In January, Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper said the British government was ready to "tighten the chokehold" on Russia and take new "assertive actions" against shadow fleet vessels. Her comments came after officials were told troops could board and seize tankers under the Sanctions and Money Act 2018." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2d77rr51rko
30th Jan
"We reported this morning that eight oil tankers that have been sanctioned by the UK for transporting Russian oil are sailing through the English Channel today." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cy8yw4y7dw9t
Two BBC things of interest.
Programme on Steve Rosenberg and operating as a journalist in Russia
The BBC website as dropped specifi headers for War in Gaza and War in Ukraine. Disappointingly I guess these are in with the main news stuff...
Friends in Kyiv are feeling the power outages and utility strikes.... long periods of no power which is also hitting heating systems. It would also seem that after a 1 day break, russia is back full steam with drones again.
Lastly, this gets Ukraine on the first STW page again.....
Just listened to an interview on The Rest Is Politics Leading with Bill Browder, an American business man who worked in Russia as Putin rose to power.
He gives an interesting take on how Putin got where he is and why he'll never agree to peace in Ukraine. He reckons it's nothing as 'noble' as expansionism or restoring Russia's greatness - he simply needs a war to stop the people uprising and toppling him.
All the current global turmoil is just down to a bunch of greedy old tossers in power who always want more.
Same as it ever was I guess.
Russian forces have completely taken the City of Myrnohrad in the last few days and are establishing bases there. Ukraine reports that it's been costly for Russia and attacks on the adjacent northern part of the city of Pokrovsk, which is the part of the city still occupied by Ukraine's forces, have decreased as a result.
I'm still of the opinion that if one falls the other will follow but Ukraine is continuing its defence of northern Pokrovsk. The southern part of the town of Svitle, which is between the two cities has also fallen to Russia. The town of Rivne, between Pokrovsk and Svitle, is still controlled by Ukraine.
It seems likely that Russian forces have also completely taken the City of Hulyaipole, although the southwest might still be very "grey". ISW's map shows that most of the city is in Russian control and the southwest of the city as "claimed" by Russia.
Ukraine's latest confirmed advance is towards the city and 1km to the south, with Russia attacking west into the Donbas and away from the city, which tends to confirm Russia's claim.
The two forces are still engaged around Hulyaipole with both making confirmed advances. This may point to both forces being stretched and unable to hold ground around the city with troops, relying instead on mines and drone strikes.
Claims are difficult to verify and often a city is designated "grey" in parts because substantial pockets of troops from both sides may be in adjacent buildings.
The cities are prized because it's something to point to on a map, they're useful in peace negotiations should front lines be frozen while logistics routes tend to be better and more numerous. That doesn't prevent forces from continuing to fight outside the cities.
"Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on February 3 shows Ukrainian forces striking a Russian artillery system in southern Myrnohrad, and Ukrainian new outlet Ukrainska Pravda reported on January 28 that Russian forces have begun moving command posts into Myrnohrad, indicating that Russian forces seized Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk) on a prior date.
ISW has not observed evidence in the past few weeks that would indicate that Ukrainian forces continue to maintain defensive positions in the area. Geolocated footage published on February 4 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in northwestern Pokrovsk.""Russian forces attacked near and within Pokrovsk itself; northwest of Pokrovsk near Hryshyne; north of Pokrovsk near Rodynske and toward Bilytske; east of Pokrovsk near Myrnohrad and Svitle; and southwest of Pokrovsk near Kotlyne, Udachne, and Molodetske on February 3 and 4. A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Rodynske."
"Ukrainian and Russian forces recently advanced in the Hulyaipole direction."
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-4-2026/
Social media reports suggest that Starlink coverage is being denied to Russian forces. A "whitelist" system has been agreed with Starlink and Ukraine's military and civilian populations have separate free registration systems to authorise their terminals.
There is a slight information security risk in that it geo-locates Ukraine's military to Starlink employees, however, I'd be surprised if Starlink couldn't piece that information together from existing data.
Russia is experimenting with mesh networks and repeater drones to maintain comms. It's not a technology that I understand at all well, but combine the mesh network with AI to supplement the low bandwidth and you can develop controllable drone swarms. The AI will also overcome system shortcomings if electronic warfare is turned against mesh comms.
https://cepa.org/article/how-russian-drone-developers-outpace-the-west/
Just listened to an interview on The Rest Is Politics Leading with Bill Browder, an American business man who worked in Russia as Putin rose to power.
He gives an interesting take on how Putin got where he is and why he'll never agree to peace in Ukraine. He reckons it's nothing as 'noble' as expansionism or restoring Russia's greatness - he simply needs a war to stop the people uprising and toppling him.
All the current global turmoil is just down to a bunch of greedy old tossers in power who always want more.
Same as it ever was I guess.
Followed Bill for a while including reading his books. At the out break of this war he said Putins ratings were tanking and he needed to shore up his position. This is purely about clinging onto power to protect his wealth and as soon as he stops he will fall out of a window. coward.
Ukrainian civilians really suffering with the relentless strikes on the energy infrastructure. Kyiv independant article.
Ukrainian civilians really suffering with the relentless strikes on the energy infrastructure.
Sadly yes.
Another war crime compounded by Ukraine's Minister of Energy, Herman Halushchenko reporting that Russia is sometimes using cluster munitions to achieve maximum damage. The civilian population is sometimes victim to these munitions (another war crime).
The electrical system is extremely fragile and collapsed due to an ice storm bringing cables down; something that it would normally cope with.
The US has started LPG exports but really needs to take more positive action to prevent strikes on civilian infrastructure and to increase AD supply
Russian forces are likely aiming for starting positions for assaulting Ukraine's "fortress belt" for their Summer 2026 campaign.
It's going a lot slower with greater losses than the strict targets laid down by Russian military planners; these targets partially account for claims that a settlement has been captured weeks before it is (or isn't in the case of Kupyansk).
The slipping timeline has happened despite advantageous weather conditions that prevented Ukraine's reconnaissance and strike drones from flying and gives an idea of how difficult the campaign will be.
"The Russian military command is reportedly planning to deploy its likely limited strategic reserves to a planned Summer 2026 offensive in southern and/or eastern Ukraine. The Russian military likely lacks sufficient reserves to both adequately prepare for such an offensive and achieve the offensive’s objectives, however."
"The Russian military command will likely have to choose between deploying its likely limited strategic reserves now to better prepare for the summer offensive or risk using the strategic reserve later in the summer but from less advantageous positions."
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-6-2026/
ISW has also assessed that Hulyaipole has fallen (claimed by Russia a month earlier on 27th Dec). The town is 3 miles x 3 miles on its longest axes and had a pre-war population of less than 13,000, but took three full months to be captured. It is classified as a city, however the "fortress belt" cities are much larger and will be far harder to take.
The late timeline will leave Russian forces struggling with already stretched logistics as poor ground conditions return in autumn and winter.
"ISW assesses that Russian forces likely seized Hulyaipole — a town with a pre-war population of roughly 13,000 – after three months of fighting and are unlikely to make rapid advances beyond Hulyaipole without deprioritizing other areas of the frontline. Geolocated footage published on February 6 shows Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions in northern Zaliznychne (west of Hulyaipole), indicating that Russian forces advanced beyond Hulyaipole at a prior date. ISW has not observed evidence in the past few weeks that Ukrainian forces continue to maintain defensive positions in Hulyaipole, and the pattern of recent Russian infiltrations and advances in area suggests that Russian forces hold the town."
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-6-2026/
There are various reports on SM that the loss of Starlink is causing problems in the Command and Control of a variety of Russian operations. There are also reports of so-called friendly-fire incidents because of a lack of comms. The loss of Starlink is reportedly affecting 90% of Russian units and won't help the speed of their summer campaign.
Reconnaisance drones were using modems with Ukrainian SIM cards, which were defeated by Ukraine's telecomms operators. Russia then developed mobile Starlink comms to transmit live video and direct troops.
The loss of Starlink may partially explain why Mavic drones are now being heavily used on the frontline by Russia around Pokrovsk with reconnaisance drones further back while artillery is being moved into Myrnohrad.
It appears that Russian forces are asking for donations of comms equipment, which is an indictment of a military that doesn't have a back-up of personal radio comms.
"In a video posted by the channel, one fighter complained: “We’ve been left without communications!” Russian independent outlet The Moscow Times reported."
Full article https://www.kyivpost.com/post/69587
Came across this recent development in anti-drone operations, mini-gunships!
America will be replacing all the minigun rotary machine guns that have been in use since the 60’s with new upgraded guns, I’m sure the Ukrainians would be happy recipients of them…
In 2023 Slovakia's former PM, Eduard Heger, transferred MiG-29 aircraft and other materiel to Ukraine without their replacements being in place.
The transfer has bubbled to the surface again under PM Robert Fico and President Peter Pellegrini, with both claiming that this was a mistake that won't be allowed to happen again.
Slovakia, like PM Viktor Orban's Hungary, has opposed EU funding to Ukraine, opposed military aid to Ukraine, opposed Ukraine's membership of NATO and is clinging to Russian energy products as well.
Pellegrini is up for re-election in April, but Fico only came to power in October 2023, however, more than 350,000 people have signed up to a motion that would force a national referendum on early governmental elections and the resignation of Robert Fico’s government.
Pellegrini leads a party that split from Fico's party in 2020 because he doesn't agree with Fico's direction of travel. There is a build-up of public opposition to Fico for a variety of reasons and it seems unlikely that Pellegrini would use his power to prevent the referendum, especially on the "eve" of his own re-election:
Fico's national security adviser, Miroslav Lajčák, has emerged from the Epstein files in e-mails and resigned at the end of January because of that.
Fico's government has been in trouble for some time, operating on the slimmest of majorities with a series of no-confidence motions stacking up for discussion in Parliament.
In mid-January Fico announced that a no-confidence debate in Parliament would have to be held in secret because he would be referring to security service documents about a coup allegedly planned by the opposition. This meant that the vote would be held without the debate on Government failures being aired publicly, causing the opposition to walk out.
The opposition was later given the emails that formed the basis of the secret documents and promptly published them on Facebook because there wasn't a secret element to them and very little evidence of a coup.
There have been public protests in Slovakia since 2024 because of closer ties to Russia, the failure to back Ukraine fully, a more authoritarian stance and allegations that Fico would take Slovakia out of the EU.
Hungary is due to vote in April and Orban has been trailing in independent polls throughout the campaign. Government polls indicate the opposite.
I think that we have to remember that Hungary's government mechanisms are firmly steeped in 16 years of Orban's Fidesz party, while the opposition Tisza party leader Peter Magyar is a former colleague of Orban who has pledged to reduce corruption and stop Russian energy supplies by 2035.
We don't know whether early elections will happen in Slovakia, but in common with Hungary, this is Fico's fourth (non-consecutive) spell as PM and government mechanisms will surely reflect his tenure.
Maybe things will change for Ukraine in April, or maybe not.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/69661
https://www.politico.eu/article/slovak-adviser-resigns-jeffrey-epstein-revelations-disclosures-fico/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgr4zrvv4po
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/slovakia-seeks-early-elections-what-is-known-1770411201.html
https://www.reuters.com/business/hungarys-opposition-tisza-promises-wealth-tax-euro-adoption-election-programme-2026-02-07/
An article on the announcement of elections in Ukraine in Spring 2026. The concept of the US having to provide security guarantees before any election was mentioned on here a while ago ^^
President Zelensky is very capable of smart political moves, e.g. conceding to elections that he knows Russia will probably refuse because security guarantees currently include NATO boots in Ukraine
"In a surprise announcement on February 10, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, said that his administration was preparing to hold presidential elections before the middle of May. Alongside these elections, he is reported to be planning to hold a referendum on a peace deal with Russia."
"Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, has got to this situation without making any concessions. He has played the US president perfectly so far, and there is no indication that he is done playing him. Trump is almost certain to continue to do Putin’s bidding – and to walk away as and when his grandiose plan unravels."
"Offering logistically almost-impossible elections and a referendum with a highly uncertain outcome would be a smart way for the Ukrainian president and his European allies to buy themselves the time they need for a new strategy."
"Five reasons Trump’s plan for Ukrainian elections and a peace referendum will only prolong the war:
1. Organising a free and fair vote in wartime
2. There’s no realistic peace deal yet
3. Ukrainians might say no to peace
4. Europe must play a part
5. Russia can’t be trusted"
Ukraine has announced today that Starlink is looking at this again
There are lots of reports that the recent loss of access to Starlink by Russia at the front line is seriously hindering their capability. Both to use Starlink equipped drones and for comms. They are reverting to commercial hand held radios in some instances, often provided via gofundme me type whip rounds in Russia.
These comms are easily intercepted by Ukraine. There are also reports that the FSB/GRU are trying to get civilian assets inside Ukraine to provide unblocked Starlink codes to them to get around the ban. A sign of desperation that is unlikely to yield significant results.
Elon is still a throbber, but credit to him for this, it is actually having an effect on Russia's offensive ops.
Elon is still a throbber, but credit to him for this, it is actually having an effect on Russia's offensive ops.
how much credit does he actually get? It's probably just MDS cos i've got no evidence at all, but id ahve thoguht this is some part of the USG telling him to do it rather than him seeing the light
You have a point. I don't suppose it matters who gets the credit, just a good thing it's happened 👍
There are also reports that the FSB/GRU are trying to get civilian assets inside Ukraine to provide unblocked Starlink codes to them to get around the ban. A sign of desperation that is unlikely to yield significant results.
Ukraine's 256th Cyber Assault Division set a "sting" operation up, which identified 31 people within Ukraine who would register terminals on behalf of Russia.
They also took almost $6k from Russian troops occupying Ukraine to get around the "whitelist" while gathering unit information and terminal locations to pass to on for action.
"Russian servicemen were instructed to submit identifying information and the coordinates of their terminals under the guise that the devices would be reactivated through Ukrainian administrative service centers.
The group said they collected 2,420 data packets related to Russian-used terminals and transferred them to Ukrainian law enforcement and defense agencies.""The group also said it received $5,870 from Russian soldiers seeking to restore connectivity which it is donating to fundraising efforts for Ukrainian drones.
It also identified 31 Ukrainian "traitors" willing to assist Russian forces by registering terminals. According to the statement, that information has been forwarded to Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU)." https://kyivindependent.com/using-starlink-ruse-ukrainian-cyber-forces-trick-russian-soldiers-into-revealing-positions-donating-to-armed-forces/
The contemporaneous decision for Roskomnadzor to "throttle" Telegram isn't helping Russian comms. The state wants everyone to move onto its own messaging app, Max, because there are "no effective measures to counter fraud and the use of the messaging app for criminal and terrorist purposes." https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/society-equity/telegram-messaging-app-faces-fines-russia-state-media-report-2026-02-10/
Russia is pushing mesh and wi-fi repeaters out to troops (very jammable, unlike Starlink) and Russian satellite terminals.
The maiden voyage of the Anglo-German hypersonic missile Project Nightfall has taken place after only nine months development. It's Europe's first privately-funded hypersonic missile and it achieved hypersonic speeds. The next test stages (broadly) will be hypersonic flight control and complex hypersonic anti-AD manoevres.
There's a short promotional video (linked below), which is only missing a fluffy white cat 😀
"Hypersonica, the Anglo-German defence and aerospace company building Europe’s sovereign hypersonic strike capability, today announced successful completion of its first hypersonic test flight at Andøya Space in Norway – the first privately funded European defence company to achieve this technological milestone.
Hypersonica’s missile prototype accelerated to speeds exceeding Mach 6, with a range of over 300km. Throughout the ascent and subsequent descent through the atmosphere, all systems operated nominally. System performance was successfully validated down to subcomponent level at hypersonic speeds."
"Hypersonica’s goal is to develop hypersonic strike capability by 2029. This timeline is a phased approach with successive test flights aimed at: achieving hypersonic flight, demonstrating advanced flight control at hypersonic speeds, then achieving complex manoeuvrability, and finally achieving full mission requirements." https://www.hypersonica.com/en/news/hypersonica-successful-test/
That sounds promising. I have no doubt the Europeans, now fully aware of the need to develop their own military defence, will in the not too distant future be developing military kit far superior to that of the USA.
no doubt the Europeans ... will in the not too distant future be developing military kit far superior to that of the USA.
Which, of course from an American perspective would be a blinding piece of "Oh, shit, we didn't think of that"-ery when they're next trying to sell F35s or whatever around the world 🤦♂️
There's been a flurry of reporting over the last week of a counter-offensive from Ukraine in the southern Zaporizhzhia frontline area between Hulyaipole and Pokrovsk.
Initially, it amounted to not much more than reporting, but it now seems to be morphing into something a little more solid in a few small areas in the south. This is quite localised but exceptional enough to put fingers to keyboard.
Russia initially presented this as taking advantage of their loss of Starlink and a major offensive. Yes and no.
Yes, it was taking advantage of Starlink, but no, it was about clearing pockets of Russian troops out of villages that are firmly in Ukrainian-held territory, e.g. Ternuvate, which was claimed as "captured" by Russia at the end of January, but is in reality 15km behind their evidenced frontline https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/comment/flag-planted-captives-taken-russian-forces-1769797542.html
I suspect that from Russia's POV they can take the "defeat caused by Starlink" and back away from some of the more fanciful claims made by their commanders of ground captured. It's a convenient reset for them.
This article by Stefan Korshak (linked below) is more balanced in that respect than many that echo the Russian line,
Ukrainian assault infantry, armored transport and drone units operating in combined arms attack teams scored their biggest gains in assaults over the weekend in the Zaporizhzhia sector, liberating 5 villages across a 30-kilometer (19-mile) front near the city of Hulyaipole.
The attacks forced Russian units in the area to retreat across the tactically important Haichur River, and re-established Ukrainian control in territory held by Russian forces since late summer.Ukrainian news reports and even some unit information feeds reported veteran Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) combat formations concentrated in the sector in early February to carry out the attacks against a line of Zaporizhzhia villages between the frontline cities of Hulyaipole and Pokrovsk. By Saturday, even Ukrainian mainstream news was reporting the AFU’s elite 82nd and 95th Air Assault Brigades, along with the veteran 33rd and 475th Assault Infantry Regiments, were leading the attacks.
In some areas the clearing operations are continuing further forward into outright offensives against established Russia positions, taking advantage of Starlink, momentum and morale.
I think that Ukraine has seen the propaganda advantage and is using the comms advantage and sticking a bit of combined arms manoeuvring in there, something that Russia has failed to do successfully for years.
This won't harm their chances during peace negotiations because they can show the US team that they are rolling Russian claims back (claims made with huge casualty numbers over several months) in the space of only a week given the resources. This is more likely to result in a lasting peace deal.
Ukrainian assault groups using, among other equipment, US-made M1A1 Abrams tanks and Swedish CV-90 infantry assault vehicles were able to “quickly clear” Russian troops from the five settlements, Euromaidan reported.
We've previously touched on the concept of Ukraine altering its fixed defensive lines in this sector so that Russia has to attack them head-on rather than running parallel and along them ^^. This current offensive is giving Ukraine time to finish that work to a decent standard.
From an operational/tactical POV, Ukraine can now safely move drone operators further forward, knowing that there isn't a Russian group in the next cellar, which gives them the greater range to strike deeper.
French military analyst Clément Molin in a Sunday overview of Ukrainian operations said the Ukrainian attacks were widely separated and not a counteroffensive, but “a clearing operation” with the objective of establishing stronger defensive positions before a probable Russian spring offensive kicks off. “Ukraine isn’t trying to break through – it’s racing to dig in,” Molin said.
The final words go to Russia on the pro-Kremlin channel Tsargrad, a popular information platform. IMHO, "Yes, and no".
"The situation in the ‘East’ grouping zone is difficult. The enemy is trying to get into the gaps between our strong points under the cover of fog, taking advantage of the fact that the coordination between units has deteriorated,” the report said in part. “Today we are paying for these pictures [inaccurate reports to the Kremlin] with blood and territory. However, despite the enemy’s advantage in communications, there is no catastrophe."
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/70158
Ukraine's drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure went quiet more recently, I suspect because there's little point wasting munitions on damaged infrastructure when Ukraine can wait for it to be replaced. And repeat.
That hasn't been the game-changer that I think Ukraine had hoped for, but sanctions and trade deals seem to be making greater inroads. India's imports seem to be permanently reduced (I'd expressed some pessimism ^^ but it's holding) and Russia is producing below OPEC+ allowances.
Russian oil storage is reaching capacity so the next stage will be self-imposed production cuts and closures. This is the game-changer
As a result, oil and gas revenues have plunged. In January 2026, budget income from the sector fell to 393 billion rubles – about half the level recorded a year earlier and the lowest since the COVID-19 pandemic. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/70154
Remaining Ukrainian forces in the NW of Pokrovsk city are being quite heavily pressured, with Russia trying to close their withdrawal routes to the NW. I think that they will have to make a decision to leave soon while the balance and comms advantages are with them.
its not just Starlink that Russia has lost, the Kremlin has also disabled Telegram usage. this was widely used on the front line as there is no military coms as such.
Do we think that finally after so many years the Russian economy may be about to properly stop working and funding the war machine? It seems that so many times it has been predicted that finances may be what ends this war.
Do we think that finally after so many years the Russian economy may be about to properly stop working and funding the war machine?
There does seem to be an increase in reporting to this effect recently, and Trump seems to have cut off the flow of oil from Russia to India largely by signing his trade deal the other week.
We can but hope that it happens. Seems a few folk suggest when it collapses it will happen quickly.
President Trump has decided that it's a good idea if Steve Witkoff handles negotiations with Iran, Russia and Ukraine simultaneously in Geneva.
“Trump seems more focused on quantity over quality instead of the difficult detailed work of diplomacy,” said Brett Bruen, who was a foreign policy adviser in the Obama administration and now heads the Global Situation Room strategic consultancy. “Tackling both issues at the same time in the same place doesn’t make a lot of sense.”
”We’ve seen a hollowing-out of our diplomatic bench,” said former Obama foreign policy adviser Bruen. “So there’s a question of whether we still have the right people to work on these big issues.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-envoys-juggle-two-crisis-talks-raising-questions-about-prospects-success-2026-02-17/
It's circulating on SM that Iran was surprised to be offered Crimea providing it remains nuclear-free, Russia must leave the West Bank and Ukraine will have the Fordow nuclear facility 🤣 🤣
I've just seen a DW News report talking about claims of 200 square kilometres retaken by Ukraine. Although they're keen to stress it's not really corroborated yet.
No idea if it's either correct or meaningful overall.
Edit, think it probably ties in with @Timba post yesterday
Politics and the intertwined world mean that sanctions are slow and aren't going to solve anything soon, while recent trade deals seem to be at least as effective within a much shorter timescale.
A handful of current pieces:
Ukraine is still finding EU-made components in Russian Geran drones. There isn't any evidence of direct exports and these components are likely either re-directed by third-parties from legitimate sales or the parts stripped from other goods by third-parties.
Hundreds of components made by European companies are still turning up in Russian ‘Geran-2’ attack drones despite EU sanctions aimed at crippling Moscow’s war machine, an investigation by Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) and media partners has found.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/70387
********************
US sanctions, due to end in March, have been extended for another year.
"According to United24, sanctions pressure has pushed Russia’s trade exposure to its lowest level in more than three decades, with figures comparable to the final years of the Soviet Union."
"David O’Sullivan, the EU’s special envoy for sanctions, cautioned that restrictions are “not a silver bullet” and remain vulnerable to circumvention, but added that he is increasingly confident they are weakening Russia’s economic foundations."
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/70407
********************
Three German subsidiary companies of Russia's PJSC Rosneft Oil Company (Rosneft Deutschland GmbH, RN Refining & Marketing GmbH and a subsidiary) were placed under German control through a trusteeship.
The UK, US and others exempted the subsidiaries from sanctioned trade by special licence because they were necessary to Germany's energy supply; 90% of the cars in Berlin and its airport run on fuel supplied by those companies. The companies supply other parts of Germany and Poland as well.
Those licences have different expiry dates by state. The UK licence expires October 2027, the US in April 2026, which is a sticking point because Germany is already sourcing oil for April delivery.
Suppliers, insurers, banks, etc. are all very wary of possibly violating US sanctions if their licence isn't renewed before April's expiry
There's a massive lesson there on over-reliance on a single country, the deeper issues of politics and the intertwined world.
Spring is coming and it would seem like Flamingos are migrating..... Quite a turn around from an earlier attack on the factory by russia.
I've just seen a DW News report talking about claims of 200 square kilometres retaken by Ukraine. Although they're keen to stress it's not really corroborated yet.
It's been acknowledged on a lot of Russian Telegram channels. Looks legit. In many places though it was just clearing out small pockets of Russians who had occupied buildings in the grey zone, then consolidating those positions. So not really a full on counteroffensive, more a coordinated clear out of dispersed groups of infiltrators. Significant though and highly embarrassing for Putin. There are claims the front line has been pushed back 18 km in some places.
I've just seen a DW News report talking about claims of 200 square kilometres retaken by Ukraine. Although they're keen to stress it's not really corroborated yet.
It's been acknowledged on a lot of Russian Telegram channels. Looks legit. In many places though it was just clearing out small pockets of Russians who had occupied buildings in the grey zone, then consolidating those positions. So not really a full on counteroffensive, more a coordinated clear out of dispersed groups of infiltrators. Significant though and highly embarrassing for Putin. There are claims the front line has been pushed back 18 km in some places.
Yes, I think that you're right.
The grey zone is a nebulous patch of ground between two separated front lines. From the Ukrainian side it has an occupation gradient that's majority Ukraine with a smattering of Russia, gradually balancing out in the middle with decreasing Ukraine, increasing Russian, as you head towards the Russian side.
In the southern area of the front line(s), Ukraine has consolidated some of its half and in a few small areas consolidated into the Russian half, effectively advancing their front line and decreasing the grey zone. In fewer cases within those few small areas, Ukraine has continued into the accepted Russian front line pushing that back a little as well.
In a fortnight Ukraine has taken full control of some 20 villages and towns in Zaporizhzhia and neighbouring Dnipropetrovsk, regionally "significant though and highly embarrassing".
Ukraine has also reduced the Russian bridgehead on the Haichur river
For the first time it's believed that more Russian troops are hors de combat per month than are being recruited.
Some EU wrangling going on (again):
Hungary has blocked the €90bn loan to Ukraine until it receives Russian oil via the Druzhba pipeline.
Slovakia has said that it will stop supplying electricity to Ukraine unless the Druzhba pipeline is restored.
April can't come soon enough, especially if Fico is forced to the polls in Slovakia as well ^^
The EU does have the option of putting an indefinite expiry date on any agreement, saving a repeat performance, but Hungary (along with Slovakia and the Czech Republic) had agreed not to obstruct the loan providing they didn't have to participate in repayment.
“At the European Council meeting in December, a unanimous political agreement was reached to provide €90 billion in resolute support for Ukraine’s budgetary and military needs over the next two years,” (European Commission spokesperson Balázs) Ujvári said.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/70498
And just for good measure Europe can't agree, can't co-ordinate and can't strategise defence appropriation.
You've agreed the 5%, you're united on reliance on the US and yet there are major issues including:
Germany is reportedly* looking to buy more F35 aircraft because France and Germany can't agree on their European (with Spain) FCAS fighter aircraft project**
The EU Drone Wall project has stalled
*reporting officially denied by Germany
**separate from the Italy/Japan/UK FCAS project
FFS, NATO and your own Generals are telling you that there's likely to be a serious Russian threat within five or so years. Your comms cables are being cut, your airports are being closed by drone threats that you can't counteract, you're suffering sabotage. What more do you need to see?
"The European Drone Wall, presented as a flagship EU initiative to counter Russian hybrid threats, illustrates these divisions. Disputes over technology and governance have stalled the project, leaving it effectively frozen despite its political prominence." https://www.kyivpost.com/post/70509
From my superficial reading, the major part of the German/French FCAS going sideways is dassault being dassault, combined with them preferences ng to keep selling the rafaele
Blue Advances, Trading Bombardments, De-Bunking Goofy Ukraine News by Stefan Korshak
Article sections:
News from the front – Hulyaipole and Pokrovsk
Missile Mensheviki
So how’s the damage in Ukraine?
Drones over Russia. Lots of drones. No, seriously, lots and LOTS of Drones
Belarusian angle and electronic warfare
Bad news from Russia
Palliative palaver
Flying tigers over the Dnipro?
The Economist just reported Budanov wants peace now
As usual a couple of explanatory notes:
Don't read too much into the section headline, read the section.
"There were about eight to ten attack operations carried out to capture lightly held villages in the gray zone", which is consistent with my own "full-control" estimate of around twenty settlements, i.e ranging from minimal, if any, Russian presence to "lightly-held".
The sq. km added to "full-control" varies from 200-400 depending on the source. This may be consistent, just over differing time periods, different methodologies, etc.
Ballistic missiles are the least frequently shot down.
This is a recurring problem, partly because the US THAAD system is too expensive for Ukraine's coffers and partly because Patriot PAC3-MSE missiles are in short supply. There is a PAC3-CRI version, but I can't find much info on that; maybe those that know that can jump in?
The numbers of Patriot batteries sent to Ukraine is a double-edged sword. More batteries give more protection. More batteries need more missiles, but there is slow annual production (620 PAC3-MSE in 2025).
A single launcher (one or more in a battery) can hold up to 16 PAC3 missiles and that limited production is spread amongst 20 countries. A seven year agreement was announced last month for accelerated production up to 2000 PAC3-MSE missiles pa.
An interesting linked article on the development of Electronic Warfare (EW) pertinent to drone warfare (needs browser translation from Ukrainian):
The speed of jet-powered drones, e.g. Russia's Geran 5, doesn't matter; EW will always be faster. Speed poses a problem for people shooting at the aircraft.
Signal repeaters and drone-to-drone comms to increase range need different EW approaches. (President Zelensky hinted this week that Russian signal repeaters in Belarus are being taken out of use)
Saving missiles by watching the effects of EW on aircraft; if it flies away from a city, why shoot it down?
EW identifies the drone type and then targets it with specific suppression.
AI targetting can be easily fooled.
EW technologies exist, but they're massively expensive at the scale needed in Ukraine.
The article (finally):
"The number kicking around by Friday is that the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) had liberated about 200 square kilometers (77 square miles) of territory in about five days. Roughly speaking, that’s about one-to-two months of Russian assaults that need to take place for the Russians to recover that ground."
Commander of 1st Assault Regiment, Dmitry “Perun” Filatov said,
“I can assure everyone that we should not expect any grandiose counterattacks from our side. These are actions that are limited to the operational level. But these are important regroupings, important strikes that put the enemy in an awkward position.”"All in all, battles are still in progress, but roughly, the Ukrainians seem to have recaptured in about ten days ground that the Russians fought and bled six months to conquer and then lose, is my read."
"There was more evidence supporting my theory that the Russians are running out of missiles." (Observation on a previous post ^^ that production numbers on Russian missiles are contemporaneous to use)
Sources:
https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/70606
https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2026-01-06-Lockheed-Martin-and-Department-of-War-Advance-Landmark-Acquisition-Transformation-to-Accelerate-PAC-3-R-MSE-Production
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/several-already-gone-zelenskyy-hints-ukraine-1771848615.html
https://armyinform.com.ua/2026/02/19/reaktyvna-geran-5-ta-shahedy-yak-ukrayinskyj-reb-gotuye-vidpovid-na-evolyucziyu-povitryanogo-teroru-rf/
Russia has opened a criminal investigation into Pavel Durov, Russian co-founder and CEO of the Telegram app.
The state is cracking down hard alleging that the app is used for drug deals, terrorism, criminal activity, etc. and is compromised by "western" intelligence agencies https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-says-telegram-messaging-app-has-violated-law-many-times-2026-02-24/
This has just come on iplayer and looks like it's well worth a watch. They've just interviewed the director on Five Live and he's confirmed what everyone long suspected about the way Putin and his generals regard their military. You can't even call them canon fodder. They'd have to be treated considerably better than they are to qualify as that. They are literally regarded (and referred to) as meat.
Some of the stories are absolutely horrific. One guy was forcefully conscripted with 79 other men from his village and sent to the front in 2024. He deserted and said he now knows he's the only one of them left alive. Troops are thrown toward Ukrainian lines in what the generals refer to as 'meat-storms' and are just suicide missions done purely to wear down Ukrainian troops, no matter what the cost. Failure to follow orders to do so leads to torture, then execution
The level of barbarism is absolutely appalling, though unsurprising. Putin really is a monster and god only knows how many dead he has on his hands
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m002rxvc
It looks like by focusing their air attacks on Ukranian civilian infrastructure that teh Russians have neglected some of teh front lines, giving teh Ukranians space to counterattack
While Im sceptical the russians are running out of missiles & drones, It looks like their supply is limited and they are not able to ramp up
For the last 200 years Russia has had little regard for its soldiers, seen as peasant cannon fodder. Didn't that nice Mr Stalin say something about quantity has a quality of its own.
I’ve just watched that Zero Line documentary and it makes for truly grim viewing.
Take the drones out of the footage and it’s just First World War trench warfare, complete with officers executing soldiers on the spot for refusal to go over the top. It is terrifying!
It puts Russias dead or injured at 1.2 million, but Putins repression is so complete that there’s nothing anybody can do. There’s no protests as they are just brutally dealt with. He’ll just carry on throwing millions of troops into ‘the meat grinder’ with no ****s given.
I read the BBC article on the documentary, that was saddening enough with torture and humiliation rife.
I'm not sure I want to see the visuals. The words are bad enough.
He’ll just carry on throwing millions of troops into ‘the meat grinder’ with no ****s given.
This is why I don't really get the wider panic about further traditional military aggression after Ukraine. The number of fighting and reproductive age men that have been killed, seriously injured or escaped Russia, plus Ukraine's diligent destruction of their heavy industry is giving to **** Russia for decades even if sanctions are relaxed after a few years. I really can't see them having the capacity to tackle a second modern military force, especially a NATO nation.
Asymmetric warfare, yeah, they could make themselves a right pain in the arse and have serious financial impacts, but expansionism, no, I don't see it.
^^ The Baltic states geographically closest to Russia and perhaps with the best insight into the their psyche are far less optimistic in regard to Putin's Russia.
NATO without US involvement, which can no longer be taken for granted, is still not anywhere near being able to sustain a prolonged war against a foe like Russia that is willing to accept huge fatalities.
Just my take anyway.
is still not anywhere near being able to sustain a prolonged war against a foe like Russia
That seems fair, but I think if Russia did try to make a move on Finland say, they'd get destroyed within few hours of rolling over the border.
^^ The Baltic states geographically closest to Russia and perhaps with the best insight into the their psyche are far less optimistic in regard to Putin's Russia.
And of course they are absolutely correct to be wary and prepared for any incursion.
Also, just my opinion, I'm no expert.
The scenario where Russia carries out a widespread incursion into several European countries at once? Unlikely.
A small scale incursion in the Baltics to test NATO resolve? Likely. Support from the US is no longer a given and some smaller NATO members might be reluctant to invoke article 5 and risk a wider war for something they might see as not their fight. Not only cuckoos in the nest like Hungary, but those to the south and west of Europe like Spain who have been (relatively) reluctant supporters of Ukraine.
There would be a response, but probably a slow and and disjointed one. Russia would probably be pushed back. But NATO would be massively undermined if their hadn't been a swift, cohesive response involving every NATO member. Which there wouldn't be. Russia would see the weakness and try again and again. Rinse and repeat, nibbling away at the edges, pushing all the time. The Baltics initially but Eastern European countries next. Probably not completely annexing these countries, but stealing bits wherever they can.
Alongside asymmetric stuff like pipeline sabotage, electoral interference, assassinations in European countries etc. which they are already doing.
This is what world war 3 looks like. Not thousands of T72s and BMPs flooding through the Suwalki gap and Poland and into Germany as cold war warriors like me prepared for. But still with the risk of nuclear escalation.