Ukraine's forces have officially withdrawn from Siversk in the Donetsk region of the Donbas.
Current conditions there are making drone surveillance and attacks difficult, while Russia is continuing to pressure the defenders
It seems that some of Ukraine's senior officers suffer from the same need to falsify reports as their Russian counterparts.
Colonel Oleksii Konoval and Colonel Volodymyr Potieshkin have been relieved of their commands after the withdrawal from Siversk. The 11th Army Corps, under Brigadier General Serhii Sirchenko, has been relieved of its command in the area.
Ukrainska Pravda learned that the dismissals are linked to alleged falsification of reports by both brigades' leadership. The brigades reported that they held positions in their areas of responsibility, but in reality those positions had long remained without personnel. The alleged falsehood became apparent during the swift loss of the city. Russia said that it had seized Siversk on 12 December 2025.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/12/27/8013612/
Speaking of which, over the last couple of days Russia has been claiming that it has retaken Kupyansk from Ukraine.
Strangely, none of the reports are geo-located and coincidentally President Zelensky is meeting with President Trump today, who of course favours a strong leader
The Russian MoD, Kremlin officials, and Russian state media appear to be engaged in a whole-of-government effort to cover up battlefield failures in Kupyansk and to address widespread milblogger and ultranationalists’ criticism of the Kremlin’s false reports.
There is ample evidence to indicate that Ukrainian forces have liberated most of Kupyansk, however. https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-27-2025/
The latest press briefing after Zelensky and Trump met was quite telling. Both by what was said and the body language of Zelensky hearing Trump so obviously side with Russia.
I understand that at this moment in time Ukraine and all Europe are too reliant on the USA to totally exclude them .. but, agreeing to Putin and Trumps terms are going to be horrendous for Ukraine and probably financial suicide for European countries too.
It seems likely that Ukraine withdrew a proportion of its forces from Myrnohrad over Christmas.
Logistics and troop rotations were becoming more difficult, however, this isn't a full withdrawal and Ukraine still has forces both there and in Pokrovsk.
Assessed Russian advances: ISW has not observed evidence in the past few weeks that would indicate that Ukrainian forces continue to maintain defensive positions south of and in southern Myrnohrad, and available visual evidence and combat footage collected in December 2025 suggests that the FEBA is north of the railway between Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, indicating that Russian forces advanced south of and in southern Myrnohrad. This change did not occur in the past 24 hours but is a reflection of ISW’s updated assessment. https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-28-2025/
The withdrawal was clearly conducted in a disciplined way because Russian sources haven't talked it up with video of casualties and it also places doubt on Russia's claims to have encircled Myrnohrad since November. That claim was contradicted on December 9th by Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi,
He added that the neighboring city of Myrnohrad is not surrounded, though logistics have become more difficult.
Earlier this week, Ukraine's Air Assault Forces said on Dec. 5 that neither Pokrovsk nor Myrnohrad is encircled, countering Russian claims that Pokrovsk had been captured. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-regains-part-of-pokrovsk-syrskyi-says/
Russia is continuing to claim that various settlements have fallen, despite evidence to the contrary. These include: Myrnohrad, Rodynske, Vilne, Hulyaipole and Kupyansk
The Kremlin likely timed the meeting to fall on the eve of the December 28 meeting between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Florida in order to influence the US-Ukrainian meeting. Putin, Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov, and the GoF commanders made a series of likely exaggerated claims about Russian successes across the battlefield. https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-28-2025/
Few of these settlements have massive operational value to Russia but there's clearly a PR value. Ukraine is defending hard to gain time to develop existing permanent defences now that Russia's plan is more obvious and before the "fortress belt" and the larger cities are reached.
As things currently stand it will continue to be a war of attrition until either economies, weapons or personnel issues force a change.
External influence is a massive factor in two out of those three, e.g. the EU €90bn should keep Ukraine going well into 2027. Without that Ukraine would have run out of money within the next six months, however, the IMF reckons that "The program is expected to catalyze large-scale external support to close Ukraine’s financing gaps. In the baseline, the total financing gap is calculated at around US$136.5 billion for 2026-29" so there will be more EU wrangling ahead if the invasion continues into 2028-29, which will mostly be within President Trump's current term.
Watch Zelensky's face and body language when the deluded tangerine chimp talks of Russia wanting Ukraine to succeed and Putin's generosity. He has the restraint and patience of a saint to have to listen to this garbage without openly laughing in Trump's face.
On the mark as ever from the Marsh family
He has the restraint and patience of a saint to have to listen to this garbage without openly laughing in Trump's face.
Too much to loose unfortunately, as have most politicians who stand next to him on a podium and he definitely doesn't need to get into a public slanging match again. Would be glorious to see someone who genuinely doesn't give a shit share a press conference with Trump.
"No. I'm sorry Donald you ****ing moron, you're being played and couldn't grasp a good deal with your tiny hands if it was glued to Milania's tits."
The negotiation will Not succeed because Zelensky's cannot afford to agree to any terms table by Russia vice versa.
If Zelensky accept Russian's term, he will be in grave danger from his own backers (not necessarily the population but the hardcore few that swell his ranking i.e. their extreme right).
Trump does not want to get involve because economically it does not pay, and Trump wants UK and EU to foot the bill themselves. Trump only want to sell "products" and earn profit. No profit means not economically viable.
Domestically, Trump needs to make sure US economy is sound, which it is not at the moment. No soy beans sell, rare earth shortage etc, no further investment in aircraft carriers with only minimal (2) shipyards ready only etc etc.
The only way out for Zelensky is to maintain the status quo and to continue some form of reliance on UK/EU funding to "buy" arms from US, and to prolong the war in the hope that the next US administration will come to his aid.
The war will drag on until such time as UK/EU or even USA can no longer see a way out (not economically viable) by abandoning Ukraine. Depending on the severity Trump may/may not be in office by that time. Then there is a greater risk of triggering some form of nuclear wars when the next person takes over the administration, and in desperation takes a pre-emptive strike on Russia (because that's the only way to "win").
In the Pacific, Japan is trolling China and is trying to drag US into some form of involvement. i.e. Japan is trying to regain their full war like status, while Trump knew exactly that Japan is a poison chalice yet can do some leg works to "disrupt" China's progression economically.
Therefore, the war in Ukraine will not end any day soon. Not even half way there yet.
Therefore, the war in Ukraine will not end any day soon.
Whilst I don't agree with your reasoning, I do agree with that conclusion. Putin is a busted flush once the war stops, and he knows it. He has no desire whatsoever to end it. If he did, the military spending which is artificially keeping wages high and their fragile economy afloat will stop, causing huge economic problems.
There will be a day of reckoning for the huge loss of Russian lives and the population will no longer have the war to divert their gaze from all the many issues which they are facing. Putin will be expected to fix them but will have few levers to pull to address them. Without the war, Putin is finished. He's terrified of it ending.
Zelensky cannot accept giving huge chunks of territory to Russia after the heroic effort to defend them. He cannot accept a peace which would allow Russia to come back for another go in the near future. He cannot accept weak security guarantees after their betrayal with the Budapest memorandum.
The US is becoming (by choice) irrelevant. Europe needs to hold fast and continue to fully support Ukraine. It's a war of attrition and Ukraine, with defenders advantage is exacting an unsustainable cost from Russia. And whilst so doing are giving the rest of Europe time to prepare for the next stage of Putin's imperial project. We owe them a huge debt.
IIRC, a few folk suggested Ukraine at the time. Reading this I would suggest many people might want to stop this ship and it's cargo...
#CannotTrustRussia
🤦🏻♂️🤦🏻♂️🤦🏻♂️
I think I am see desperation now? Are we seeing the modern day buccaneers in South America disrupting the supply chain?
Putin is a busted flush once the war stops, and he knows it. He has no desire whatsoever to end it. If he did, the military spending which is artificially keeping wages high and their fragile economy afloat will stop, causing huge economic problems.
No, there is no logic in stopping when winning. Just keep pressing until one surrenders or take terms.
There will be a day of reckoning for the huge loss of Russian lives and the population will no longer have the war to divert their gaze from all the many issues which they are facing. Putin will be expected to fix them but will have few levers to pull to address them. Without the war, Putin is finished. He's terrified of it ending
This is not just Russia. Ukraine will realise that first while UK/EU later when they participate fully in the war.
Zelensky cannot accept giving huge chunks of territory to Russia after the heroic effort to defend them. He cannot accept a peace which would allow Russia to come back for another go in the near future. He cannot accept weak security guarantees after their betrayal with the Budapest memorandum.
He has no cards.
The US is becoming (by choice) irrelevant. Europe needs to hold fast and continue to fully support Ukraine. It's a war of attrition and Ukraine, with defenders advantage is exacting an unsustainable cost from Russia. And whilst so doing are giving the rest of Europe time to prepare for the next stage of Putin's imperial project. We owe them a huge debt.
US will always be relevant to Europe, but not the other way round. Europe is just a tool for US. We only have to look at how the European leaders submit to US President. Ukraine can defend as much as they wish but they know exactly well Russia has so far only despatched their expeditionary force. The main Russian force is actually anticipating (waiting) European participation. Therefore, early or late European participation makes no difference at all. Ukraine is currently owing many people and even it will take them several generations to pay off their debts. US/UK/EU/NATO etc can send in all the crack troops etc but the bottom line is that this is not a war of yesteryear, but an unknown warfare that involving drones (plenty of it too), which many on the both sides will perish. I can imagine all the crack troops moving forward the front line but the "Predator like drones with their heat sensor sees them all like sitting ducks".
just watched the trump/netanyahu press conference on al jazerra, what a pair of absolute ****ers, I so ****ing hope the pair of these ****s have a horrible and painful/prolonged death
they know exactly well Russia has so far only despatched their expeditionary force. The main Russian force is actually anticipating (waiting)
Bollocks. They've resorted to emptying their jails, using pressed North Koreans and conning the poor of Africa and India to die for them in meat attacks. Scraping the bottom of the barrel. Virtually all their armour is destroyed and a big chunk of their navy gone too.
I'd love to address all your other points one by one, but I'm out for the night at a pantomime with Mrs Bloke. So you crack on!
And the Armata (Russian wunder tank - that’s actually a POS) will be along soon - honest governor 🤣🤣🤣
Looks like it’s a rolling collapse in the North, Ukraine advancing too fast and with Russia unable to form a defensive live to stabilise the situation.
Assuming this continues and the bulk of the Northern Luhansk area is retaken, what are Ukraines next moves?
“Armchair General” time
Roll up the remainder of forces north of the Dnipro river and retake Kherson.
Move these forces round to Zaporisia and strike down to Melitopol, severing the Russian territory in two. Destroy Kerch bridge. The Russians in Kherson are cut off from resupply.Strike down to Mariupol splitting the Russian territory into three. All Russians west of Mariupol are now cut of from resupply.
Then squeeze.
How did that work out?
More
from our resident troll
It's a sad state of affairs in a thread when it's actually chewy that makes most sense !!
How did that work out?
I don't know who you're quoting, but there's a huge back catalogue of bad takes on this thread. Do all your posts hold up to scrutiny? I doubt mine do!
It's the interval btw! 😊
Are you smoking what chewy is smoking?
Are you smoking what chewy is smoking?
I know I am smoking German duty free Pueblo tobacco 😀
Are you guys smoking some seriously weird stuff? 😆
I am. But even I can see you're a massive lettuce
Well this has taken an unexpected turn! Perhaps if your aunt sent some of that to Trump and Putin, it might help?
#somafunksaunt #nobelpeaceprize
Chewk - I wish you’d **** off from this thread.
Timba does a good job here without your inane ramblings getting in the way of good info.
So Russia now lie about an attack on Putins residence?
An excuse to do a retaliation in the next few hours on a high profile target?
It's a sad state of affairs in a thread when it's actually chewy that makes most sense !!
Chewk stated some obvious things such as USA merely using Europe for it's own purposes, and Russia not fighting Ukraine on their own .. it common knowledge North Korea are there too, that Iran provided lots drones early on and China are doing so en mass since.
But this comment..
Ukraine can defend as much as they wish but they know exactly well Russia has so far only despatched their expeditionary force.
Chewk lost the plot here. No matter how cold and focussed Putin is, the deaths and casualties are too big to even consider.
I don't know who you're quoting, but there's a huge back catalogue of bad takes on this thread
Well indeed, so it’s a bit disappointing that futon chose to launch a missile attack on chewy rather than acknowledging his own less than stellar record of analysis (an example of which I quoted).
Timba does a good job here without your inane ramblings getting in the way of good info.
Or you could say that it’s a good idea to keep in mind the overall picture, which is that Russia is a huge country with massive resources, and not get trapped in the weeds looking at Boys Own style minutiae. Or maybe there’s room for both?
If you actually read my quote, I qualified it with this “ Assuming this continues and the bulk of the Northern Luhansk area is retaken, what are Ukraines next moves?”
Which Ukraine didn’t achieve.
Also Ukraine DID try to achieve what I suggested with their offensive, a push through to Mariupol, which unfortunately failed. The fact that Ukraine tried my suggestion validates my post.
I’ve made a few posts where the YouTube channel has been a bit premature in their info and turned out to be wrong, I posted it too quickly, my bad. I’m sure you can waste your time and dig them up if you want to, it’s your life.
What I don’t do is bombard this thread with utter BS.
So Russia now lie about an attack on Putins residence?
An excuse to do a retaliation in the next few hours on a high profile target?
And bail from peace talks claiming that Ukraine is a nasty piece of work for targeting Putin.
Do we expect anything different?
If you actually read my quote, I qualified it with this “ Assuming this continues and the bulk of the Northern Luhansk area is retaken, what are Ukraines next moves?”
Yeah I read it. I’m not sure what stating your ridiculous assumption adds to the argument, but if it makes you feel better, go for it.
What I don’t do is bombard this thread with utter BS.
Ahem.
so, given
Yeah I read it. I’m not sure what stating your ridiculous assumption adds to the argument
what was ridiculous about it?
So Russia now lie about an attack on Putins residence?
An excuse to do a retaliation in the next few hours on a high profile target?
Russia attacked the Cabinet of Ministers building in Kyiv in September, which is near to the Parliament building and President's residence https://www.kyivpost.com/post/59620
Russian "retaliation" already happened
And bail from peace talks claiming that Ukraine is a nasty piece of work for targeting Putin.
Do we expect anything different?
It isn't different, but President Trump is "very angry" about Ukraine's "unacceptable escalation". Other Republican's have urged him to get the facts first in some straight-talking, "liar", "lying" and "embarrassment" comments
“You know who told me about it?” the president said, recounting claims that Ukraine had tried to strike one of Putin’s residences in northern Russia. “President Putin told me about it.”
"Trump said he was “very angry” about the alleged attack, calling it an unacceptable escalation – even while conceding that the incident might not have happened at all.
“It’s possible too, I guess,” Trump said. “But President Putin told me this morning it did.”""Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE), a senior member of the House Armed Services Committee, urged caution in a post on X.
“President Trump and his team should get the facts first before assuming blame,” Bacon wrote. “Putin is a well-known boldface liar.”
Former Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL), a frequent Trump critic, went further.
“It’s been a year of Putin lying to him, and Trump believing it,” Kinzinger said, calling the episode “an embarrassment to our nation.”"
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/67134
Timba does a good job here without your inane ramblings getting in the way of good info.
Or you could say that it’s a good idea to keep in mind the overall picture, which is that Russia is a huge country with massive resources, and not get trapped in the weeds looking at Boys Own style minutiae. Or maybe there’s room for both?
Now we're talking! 
IIRC, a few folk suggested Ukraine at the time. Reading this I would suggest many people might want to stop this ship and it's cargo...
#CannotTrustRussia
I'm slightly mystified by this story.
Russia's greater export is its knowledge, which you can see in the improved accuracy of NKorean missiles deployed in Ukraine. It also secretly transports weapons with the shadow fleet
It was always the case that it was carrying two nuclear reactor hatches, reportedly for a project 10510 nuclear-powered icebreaker.
Each ice breaker has two reactors that are pressurised water types, similar to the single reactor in Russian submarines. None of this proves what they were actually for, especially when you're looking at a crated object from a distance.
The route doesn't really help, NKorea and Vladivostok are next door to one another. It just seems to be clicky-supposition
The war will drag on until such time as UK/EU or even USA can no longer see a way out (not economically viable) by abandoning Ukraine. Depending on the severity Trump may/may not be in office by that time. Then there is a greater risk of triggering some form of nuclear wars when the next person takes over the administration, and in desperation takes a pre-emptive strike on Russia (because that's the only way to "win").
Russia has a projected GDP for 2026, which is smaller than that of Italy. The EU has a GDP that includes Italy
Russia's oil is currently selling at cost (around $35 barrel) and its businesses are collapsing, so although its GDP by purchasing power parity is greater then either Japan or Germany, it can't buy as much locally.
According to Steve Rosenberg's Reading Russia (24 Dec), Russian media reports an “acute labour shortage. More than 800,000 blue-collar workers needed.”
Show me why you'd think that economics are on Russia's side.
Where do you think that 800,000 blue-collar workers have disappeared to?
I reckon I can have a guess at that
approx half joined up , got 2 weeks basic training and were sent in daylight frontal assults against dug in positions backed up with artillery, drones and IFV's. Using a combination of mopeds , donkeys and Trabant troop carriers they quickly became statistics.
The other half went for a long walk and are over a border that adjoins Russia and are waiting it out for a regime change or end of hostilities. Then they can return to their factory jobs making chairs.
Leaving soft furnishing manufacturers short of manpower .
I reckon I can have a guess at that
approx half joined up , got 2 weeks basic training and were sent in daylight frontal assults against dug in positions backed up with artillery, drones and IFV's. Using a combination of mopeds , donkeys and Trabant troop carriers they quickly became statistics.
The other half went for a long walk and are over a border that adjoins Russia and are waiting it out for a regime change or end of hostilities. Then they can return to their factory jobs making chairs.
Leaving soft furnishing manufacturers short of manpower .
How well are the foreign workers received?
"Coming over here, taking our jobs while our boys are dying for our country"
Russia has a projected GDP for 2026, which is smaller than that of Italy. The EU has a GDP that includes Italy
Russia's oil is currently selling at cost (around $35 barrel) and its businesses are collapsing, so although its GDP by purchasing power parity is greater then either Japan or Germany, it can't buy as much locally.
According to Steve Rosenberg'sReading Russia(24 Dec), Russian media reports an “acute labour shortage. More than 800,000 blue-collar workers needed.”
Show me why you'd think that economics are on Russia's side.
Where do you think that 800,000 blue-collar workers have disappeared to?
Exactly. The only thing that prevents Europe defeating Russia in the Ukraine is political will. We don't even need to send troops. Money and arms will do.
The only thing that prevents Europe defeating Russia in the Ukraine is political will.
And recycling. I'm pretty sure the only thing between the rest of us and the German 5th Reich is more productive channelling of the fact they love to sort.
Significant power outages in Moscow being reported... Nice gift for New Year...
https://twitter.com/grok/status/2006235689180934585?s=20
How well are the foreign workers received?
"Coming over here, taking our jobs while our boys are dying for our country"
It's something that you'd need to google. There are numerous tales from every corner of the Russian-influenced world of men being coerced to visit with job offers and press-ganged within Russia, especially during the last couple of years.
Some are running into far-right extremists and some are enjoying the high life. Women seem to do better because they don't run the risk of press-gangs
This Iranian photographer was forced onto the frontline before becoming the first Iranian PoW (reported yesterday),
"Arash Darbendi’s capture by Ukrainian forces marks the first publicly confirmed case of an Iranian national taken prisoner of war (POW) in the ongoing conflict."
"Darbandi’s case highlights a broader, controversial trend in the Russian military’s recruitment strategy. Over the past year, reports have surfaced of citizens from India, Nepal, and several African nations being lured to Russia with promises of high-paying jobs, only to be coerced into front-line combat through visa threats or legal pressure."
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/67171
I'm seeing more reports from economists warning of real systemic issues for the Russians. This could of course be the algorithms showing me more of them because I read a couple, but this is interesting
Russian banks restricting large cash withdrawals.
Now it says it's a fraud prevention measure, but I'm wondering if that's just a story to prevent a run on the banks. Fingers crossed it really is coming to pass.
Russia has donated $500k to Ukraine's drone manufacturers in a sting operation by Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate,
"Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) helped Denis Kapustin, the founder of the Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC) who was announced dead last week, to fake his death before claiming the bounty placed on his head by Russian security services, it said on Thursday."
"HUR said that the murder of Kapustin – considered a “personal enemy” by Russian President Vladimir Putin – had been “commissioned by the special services of the aggressor state Russia, which allocated half a million dollars to carry out the crime.”"
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/67268
The RVC is one three units of the HUR International Legion that fights for Ukraine.
An end of year interview was reported with Kaupo Rosin, Director General of Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, who said (translated),
"Also, after the launch of the NATO mission (Baltic Sentry), there were no more incidents with cables. That's the current situation. Of course, this does not exclude the fact that in the future incidents can happen, since military activity is high, the war in Ukraine continues actively - theoretically it is still possible."
"Let's say that the interest of Russia, if we talk about the shadow fleet, is primarily to preserve freedom of movement in the Baltic Sea in order to secure income, since a significant part of oil transportation passes through the Baltic."
The pressure of Baltic Sentry is high, especially as Russian shadow fleet vessels have been detained elsewhere, eg by French authorities, and cable breakages have massively reduced in preference to freedom of navigation.
During the New Year a cargo ship was detained for damaging a cable in the Baltic Sea, which may be a coincidence, but may also be testing the boundaries to see if NATO has relaxed.
The ship's cargo is steel destined for Israel, so it may be an attempt to bring the US down on Baltic Sentry for delaying an Israel-bound cargo.
"Finnish police detained a cargo vessel sailing from Russia on suspicion of sabotaging an undersea telecoms cable running from Helsinki to Estonia across the Gulf of Finland."
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/67256
There's a bit more geo-political stuff from July for those who'd like some background https://jsis.washington.edu/news/baltic-sea-undersea-cable-security/
Isn’t Russian steel sanctioned?
I dunno why Poland and Lithuania don't bilaterally annex kalingrad.
That would be a baller move whilst the Russians are busy in Ukraine and would really **** their shit up.
Isn’t Russian steel sanctioned?
Probably not if it's purchased via a 3rd party intermediary because it's not technically Russian any more.
Isn’t Russian steel sanctioned?
Yes, but only as an import to participating countries, eg EU, UK and others.
Export is generally allowed.
Russian steel is generally considered "Russian" regardless of where it's processed, but there are a boatload of exemptions in relation to steel and other metal imports
2025 shows that the Russian strategy has failed. In 1 year they have taken roughly 0.8% of Ukrainian territory,- mostly fields. In 18 months they still haven’t taken all of Pokrovsk. This has come at massive cost in terms of men/equipment and their economy.
There's a definite pattern of offensive operations by Ukraine's forces in both Rodynske and Huliaipole.
Flags have been raised in parts of Rodynske and there's been a consistent fight back over a few days in Huliaipole.
Hopefully this will continue as both sides face the snow which tends to limit drone operations
Venezuela risk accelerates Russian intake of shadow fleet vessels
Last month, 17 shadow fleet tankers left fraudulent registers and joined the Russian flag directly
The shift into Russia’s register is accelerating — over 40 shadow fleet ships have joined since June 2025
Venezuela callers appear to be following Russia’s shadow fleet choice, further accelerating the shift"Following a two-week pursuit of the sanctioned tanker Bella 1 (IMO: 9230880), Moscow officials issued a diplomatic notice to the US State Department on December 31 confirming the tanker had formally changed its name to Marinera and switched its registration to the Russian ship register.
The mid-voyage flag change effectively gave the tanker, which started its journey in Iran and had been on its way to pick up oil in Venezuela when US forces tried to stop and board it in the Caribbean Sea, Russian protection.""That shifts in flagging towards Russia, first reported by Lloyd’s List last month, points to a more permanent evolution of the shadow fleet with direct oversight and protection from Russia."
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1155992/Venezuela-risk-accelerates-Russian-intake-of-shadow-fleet-vessels
This is interesting because Russia is putting an awful lot of effort into protecting one vessel, including painting a Russian flag on the vessel while sailing, while NATO is putting an awful lot of effort into surveilling a tanker that can literally be seen from space. On Sunday The Irish Times reported that,
"On Sunday afternoon and evening, the US deployed several maritime surveillance aircraft about 400km west of Ireland near the suspected area of the Russian flagged tanker.
The aircraft took off from Nato bases in Britain and Iceland. The oil tanker, the Marinera, which until a few days ago was registered as a Guyana-flagged vessel called the Bella 1, has been pursued by US naval forces since mid-December https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2026/01/04/us-military-monitors-oil-tanker-off-irish-coast-as-it-sails-towards-russia/
Yesterday The Irish Times reported,
"However, on Monday afternoon a P-8 departed from RAF Mildenhall in Sussex and travelled across the middle of Ireland to the North Atlantic. It remained in Irish airspace for about 40 minutes.
It then patrolled the area containing the Marinera for nearly five hours before returning by the same route over Ireland and landing in the UK.
The aircraft’s route was highly unusual.""Irish and US sources said permission had been sought for the flight at a Government level. The aircraft also received clearance from Irish air traffic control (ATC). However, it is not clear how this was justified under current Irish Government policy."
"A spokesman for the US European Command said details on the flight are “not releasable at this time”."
"The Pentagon did not respond to request for comment."
"A Defence Forces spokesman said it does not comment on operations but said “when necessary, specific intelligence-led maritime defence and security operations are executed as a stand-alone operation”."
https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2026/01/06/us-naval-aircraft-crossed-ireland-during-pursuit-of-sanctioned-oil-tanker/
What's on the tanker that came from Iran? Government? Something nuclear? Or is it a sub sheltering beneath?
It looks like Ukraine will receive new batch of weapons soon judging from the Hercules transport planes flying to EU from America recently. Wonder who pays for the weapons? 🤔
Wasn’t the shadow fleet an evolution to avoid sanctions? How does reflagging shadow ships as Russian help?
How does reflagging shadow ships as Russian help?
It's to deter the Americans from arresting the vessel
US carrying out operation to seize Venezuela-linked tanker, official says.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cwynjdqgellt
The US have boarded the Russian tanker called the Bela 1, so reflagging it from the shadow fleet was ineffective.
Suspected that it may be carrying weapons?
Has the Russian sub arrived to "escort" the tanker yet?
Has the Russian sub arrived to "escort" the tanker yet?
The tanker is empty, see the still image partway down this article (actually pops up as the link image). Way too much hull visible https://news.sky.com/story/what-we-know-about-us-seizure-of-russian-flagged-oil-tanker-linked-to-venezuela-13491539
Chased for 5000miles (or whatever)
Russian sub en route? Absolutely nothing to see here!
Russian sub en route? Absolutely nothing to see here!
It's an odd one, why now all of a sudden. And Russia sending a sub to escort also raises an eyebrow, although maybe that's just a case of it being the only thing around.
Iran and Venezuela are linked by terrorism, apparently https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/the-maduro-hezbollah-nexus-how-iran-backed-networks-prop-up-the-venezuelan-regime/
The thing with saying you're sending a sub is you can then NOT send a sub and claim your sub is SO STEALTHY. Double win.
The thing with saying you're sending a sub is you can then NOT send a sub and claim your sub is SO STEALTHY. Double win
This. See that big empty bit of sea? The escort sub is there somewhere lurking, ready to ruin your day, not rusting in a port somewhere (honest!).
Iran and Venezuela are linked by terrorism, apparently
A lady in Minnesota driving a car was a terrorist too. Most people are terrorists these days.
US carrying out operation to seize Venezuela-linked tanker, official says
“Woof woof” says UK poodle.
It seems that President Putin has finally over-stepped with President Trump. First with his allegation of an attack on his private home, which Trump took at face value before having to publicly retract and then protecting a ship linked to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force and operating in the Americas.
I'm remaining cautious because this bill has been on life-support for months, despite its popularity in US Congress, because Trump won't sign it in its current form.
"President Donald Trump has officially greenlit a long-stalled bipartisan sanctions bill, opening the door to what lawmakers claim could be the most aggressive economic pressure campaign yet aimed at Vladimir Putin."
"“The drone theatrics backfired,” one GOP aide told Kyiv Post Wednesday afternoon, referring to a recent, easily disproved Russian claim of a Ukrainian attack on a Putin residence. “The president doesn’t believe Putin – and now Congress has been told to act accordingly.”"
"“First, the tankers get taken down. Now the president has greenlit secondary sanctions – something the administration had been holding off on,” Plitsas wrote. “The message to Putin is clear: the president doesn’t believe him.”
Plitsas emphasized that if the bill is signed, the “bite” would be felt quickly, likely within a month of implementation." https://www.kyivpost.com/post/67636
If the bill is signed
Always a big if. He might get bored and try and annex Stornoway for some ****ing reason
We’ve been up this blind alley too many times now. Let’s see what he actually does.
We’ve been up this blind alley too many times now. Let’s see what he actually does.
My guess: nothing.
He might get bored and try and annex Stornoway for some ****ing reason
"You can take ma toon, but you can never take ma pudding!"
Another Russian tanker struck by Ukraine today.
If the bill is signed
Always a big if. He might get bored and try and annex Stornoway for some ****ing reason
Before or after Caithness?
A couple of points about the Stefan Korshak round-up (links below):
"The Russians duly put on the internet video of a “battalion” command post with mobile phones, documents, computers, military equipment and so forth abandoned inside. It doesn’t look fake and it’s pretty clear the Ukrainians that were in there left in a very big hurry."
I'd written this off as a fake at the time, although he says not and he has human sources that I don't, so I'll bow to his knowledge.
It doesn't make sense that Russians would publish the fact that they'd taken "mobile phones, documents, computers, military equipment and so forth" when they could use them to monitor and disrupt Ukraine's operations.
I'll settle for video of a Ukrainian bunker after Russian forces had added a bit of value to the images.
Importantly, he thinks that Hulyaipole isn't destined to go the same way as Siviersk, which is a relief.
Hulyaipole would give Russian Forces an axis onto the ends of Ukraine's excavated defences and allow them to run parallel rather than attacking directly onto them as is intended
It's interesting that units receiving support from outside official military channels seem to have better morale, which demonstrates an area for development for Ukraine's ZSU (cyrillic ЗСУ), aka Armed Forces Ukraine (AFU)
He also talks about the possible shortage of Russian missiles (we've been here before) and increases in European and Ukrainian 155mm artillery shell production that currently exceeds that of the US.
https://stefankorshak.substack.com/p/january-7-2026-day-1413a-sloppy-defense
https://stefankorshak.substack.com/p/january-7-2026-day-1413b-continued
The pace of Russias advance is literally slower than a snails.
Ukraine is on a roll - 4 more tankers hit in the Black Sea
Looks like the internet jumped the gun on this one! Only 2 confirmed tankers hit. Most interestingly- Greek owned. Greece has been a major enabler of the shadow fleet, so maybe a warning shot to them ???
Attacking NATO-country ships carrying non-Russian crude may be a strategy that comes back to haunt them.