I think he's on the side that makes most money.
Great column in the Sunday Times by Matthew Syed linking many of Trump's foreign policy decisions to his business interests in the countries affected, including those in Moscow.
Russian forces in that region alone are larger than the entire, full-time, UK Army, Royal Navy and RAF combined
And I suspect have been held at bay by a significantly smaller Ukrainian force?
And I suspect have been held at bay by a significantly smaller Ukrainian force?
Almost certainly. The rule of thumb for attacking prepared defensive positions is that you need a 3:1 ratio of attackers to defenders for any chance of success. The Russian "meat assault" tactics seem to be a lot more profligate with manpower than that. Russia is paying a huge price for every inch of dirt they capture.
And I suspect have been held at bay by a significantly smaller Ukrainian force?
Almost certainly. The rule of thumb for attacking prepared defensive positions is that you need a 3:1 ratio of attackers to defenders for any chance of success. The Russian "meat assault" tactics seem to be a lot more profligate with manpower than that. Russia is paying a huge price for every inch of dirt they capture.
Stalin's thinking of "quantity has a quality all its own" is oft quoted, but there is another side that people fail to give equal or greater credence to: "quality has a quantity of its own".
MOD have released the details of the UK serviceman's death.
Rest in Power Reg.
So wtf is a "free economic zone"?!?
So wtf is a "free economic zone"?!?
A de-militarised zone (DMZ)
It's a US proposed compromise and only Ukraine will withdraw.
It's not clear who will govern it and and it's not what either side wants.
The US doesn't understand that if you impose a deadline (Christmas) then you'll end up without the leverage to push a deal through
Back to the wtf, eh?
The US doesn't understand that if you impose a deadline (Christmas) then you'll end up without the leverage to push a deal through
Predictably, Russia has officially rejected the original 28-point peace plan
Lavrov effectively rejected the following provisions:
- Freezing the current line of contact in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts;
- Restarting the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) under the control of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) rather than Russia;
- Requiring NATO only to cease further enlargement rather than insisting on rolling NATO back to its pre-1997 borders;
- Permitting European fighter jets to be stationed in Poland;
- Providing reliable security guarantees to Ukraine;
- Confirming Ukraine’s sovereignty; and
- Accepting EU regulations on the protection of religious minorities as the required basis for Ukrainian laws on the subject. https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-11-2025/
The pressure is now on the US, who will in turn pressure Ukraine and Europe to have the outline in place by Christmas.
This is no way to run international diplomacy; we're into $$$ above all else
So wtf is a "free economic zone"?!?
Place where US and to a lesser extent Russian companies will exploit natural and human resources. Obviously.
Donald Trump closing deadlines for next years Peace Prize nominations based on his concept of The Shart of the Deal. He'll be wanting to join BRICS next.
Place where US and to a lesser extent Russian companies will exploit natural and human resources. Obviously.
And a place where anything goes. You want shit smuggled into Russia avoiding sanctions and or customs? Take it through the Donbass. Same thing coming out... Just make sure that the customs people get paid off enough (or threatened enough) and you'll have a way into Europe for whatever you want.
I think you probably have it right
I think you probably have it right
Ukraine is taking back territory around Kupiansk, And Pokrovsk still holds.
Ukraine is taking back territory around Kupiansk, And Pokrovsk still holds.
President Putin announced the capture of Kupyansk in November, which wasn't completely true and part of the Kremlin campaign to get better concessions from President Trump.
On 9th December Russian General Sergey Kuzovlev received a medal from Putin, in person, for the successful capture.
President Volodymyr Zelensky published a photo of himself on the southwestern outskirts of Kupyansk along the P-07 Kupyansk-Shevchenkove highway on December 12.
I don't suppose that he's anywhere near the fighting, so this shouts loud and proud that Kupyansk has been taken by Ukraine, with more than 200 Russian troops captured.
General Kuzovlev can't be found. All of the suggestions are that he's dead, but he just might be in the wind before he's offered a poor choice
If you go back a couple of pages ^^
Russia is withdrawing troops from other areas to keep absorbing their massive losses in Pokrovsk, which has enabled Ukraine to concentrate a counter-offensive in Kupyansk, another city on the edge.
Russia's decision to throw everything at Pokrovsk has cost them
"Ukrainian forces recently liberated territory including part of the city of Kupyansk in a tactical counterattack in the Kupyansk direction. Ukrainian 2nd Khartiya Corps reported on December 12 that Ukrainian forces conducted a successful counterattack to stabilize the situation in the Kupyansk direction and liberated Kindrashivka and Radkivka (both north of Kupyansk) and the surrounding forests, liberated areas in northern Kupyansk, and broke through to the Oskil River, cutting Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to the Kupyansk area."
"A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces began infiltrating the northwestern outskirts of Kupyansk from Myrove (just northwest of Kupyansk) and Radkivka, indicating that Ukrainian forces also liberated Myrove."
Ukraine has proposed peace deal amendments to the US,
Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Mykhailo Podolyak told French outlet Le Monde that the Ukrainian proposal to the United States contains three parts: the 20-point proposal to end the war itself, a proposal about the creation of a postwar European security architecture and security guarantees for Ukraine, and a proposal on Ukraine’s reconstruction and defensive capabilities.
Podolyak stated that Russia must pay reparations to help rebuild Ukraine.
Podolyak stated that Ukraine agreed to create a demilitarized “buffer” zone in Donbas, but that both Russian and Ukrainian forces will need to pull back from the current front line to create this zone. Zelensky additionally proposed at a briefing that Ukraine should hold a referendum on the territorial provisions of the US peace proposal> https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-12-2025/
Russia rejected their version
The Kremlin explicitly rejected Ukraine’s proposals for a ceasefire and referendum. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov responded to Zelensky’s territorial referendum proposal on December 12 by explicitly rejecting a ceasefire as a pause that “will not work” for Russia.
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-12-2025/
Belgium appears to be clinging onto the frozen Russian assets and the EU has compromised with indefinite freezing, rather than the current six-monthly review of the asset freezing order
The European Union (EU) agreed on December 12 to indefinitely freeze 210 billion euros (roughly $247 billion) in Russian assets to provide Ukraine with a reparations loan of up to 165 billion euros (roughly $194 billion).
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-12-2025/
On the subject of money
"Kyiv’s mostly-European allies are nowhere near filling the money gap left by the United States’ decision to quit helping Ukraine defend itself against Russia and befriend the Kremlin, new research by a leading German research group found.
Collective new aid allocations to Ukraine’s war effort in 2025 by non-US NATO members states with important contributions from Australia, Canada and Japan are on track to drop to their lowest levels since Russia invaded Ukraine the war in 2022, a statement made public by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (Kiel Institut für Weltwirtschaft, short: IfW Kiel) found."
"Professor Christoph Trebesch, head of the Ukraine Support Tracker project, said:
“Europe has not been able to sustain the momentum of the first half of 2025. The recent slowdown makes it difficult for Europe to fully offset the absence of US military aid in 2025. If this slower pace continues in the remaining months, 2025 will become the year with the lowest level of new aid allocations ever for Ukraine since the outbreak of the full-scale invasion in 2022.”"
"Institute research found that disparities of support to Ukraine, as it falls, are widening within Europe, with France, Germany, and the United Kingdom having recently increased allocations substantially...
...The standout big economy European states with the resources to contribute substantially to Ukraine, but that absolutely are not, are Spain (0.62 percent of GDP) and Italy (0.74 percent of GDP), researchers found.
“The higher allocations from France, Germany, and the UK are significant. But even these three still trail the Nordic countries in relative terms. Meanwhile, the decline of support from Spain and Italy is a notable setback, reinforcing the importance of more balanced burden-sharing across Europe,”" https://www.kyivpost.com/post/66129
As a group of nations we really are shambolic.
but that absolutely are not, are Spain (0.62 percent of GDP) and Italy (0.74 percent of GDP), researchers found.
“The higher allocations from France, Germany, and the UK are significant. But even these three still trail the Nordic countries in relative terms.
Strange how the further west and south from Russia countries are, the less they care. Less the coalition of the willing, and more the coalition of the "meh". Poland, the Nordics and the Baltics are doing the heavy lifting here, because they know what's at stake. Most of the rest of Europe is using those countries as a buffer/shield without paying their fair whack. The whole of Europe needs to realise that the days of stability and peace dividends are long gone in the face of an aggressive, expansionist Russia with imperial ambitions. I have little faith that countries like Spain and Italy would honour their NATO article 5 obligations if required to, and zero faith that the US would.
Strange how the further west and south from Russia countries are, the less they care.
I would say "sad" rather than "strange," but yeah.
In an interview with channel 4 the Russian ambassador accidentally told the truth, “there is no peace plan or ceasefire, only surrender for Ukraine” he actually said it twice!
Meanwhile a couple of days ago ago, Putin said Kupiansk was taken and this would be repeated again and again on the frontline - unfortunately for him - it’s Ukraine that has liberated Kupiansk, with Zelenskyy trolling Putin on the outskirts of the city 😉
Texas legal company, Watts Law Firm LLP and US national company BakerHostetler LLP have lodged a lawsuit in the Texas state court.
It alleges that Texas Instruments, AMD, and Intel exported microschips while not exercising sufficient checks on their end use, which was in Russian and Iranian missiles that killed, injured and traumatised Ukrainians.
It's asking for compensation and it also exposes the companies concerned to allegations of export violation https://www.wattstrialfirm.com/watts-law-firm-news/lawsuit-filed-against-texas-instruments-amd-intel/
Russian submarine hit by a sea drone in Novorossiysk.
https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3m7zx4pw2rk24
Where are we on the "pronouncements cycle", is it one or two away from calling Zelensky a dictator again?
Anyway. Some updated peace plan proposals in that link, not agreed by Putin.
Not that I'd be trusting the current US admin to actually enforce any guarantees, Europe really does need to sort it's shit out.
Morning catch-up here..
No mention in the Grauniad article of Ukraine giving up the desire to join Nato but this is being widely reported. Frankly, I'm surprised along with "US security guarantees" which if I recall, were part of the contested Budapest Memorandum.
Having read this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum the Analysis section is interesting...
Russian submarine hit by a sea drone in Novorossiysk.
It's an historic first for an underwater drone to neutralise a submarine. Russia is claiming that their sub wasn't damaged, let alone neutralised.
Alexander Kamyshin, an advisor to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, wrote on X that it was the first time in history that an underwater drone had neutralised a submarine, a claim rejected outright by Russia's Black Sea Fleet hours later.
"None of the ships or submarines of the Black Sea Fleet stationed in the bay of the Novorossiysk naval base, nor their crews, were damaged as a result of the sabotage and are on duty as normal," the fleet was quoted as saying by state news agencies.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-hits-russian-submarine-first-underwater-drone-attack-2025-12-15/
You only have to look at the amount of sea bed in the water spout (see video^^) to guess that it was a) a 'kin big warhead and b) will have caused damage.
@blokeuptheroad, please jump in with your knowledge (rather than my guess) 😀
It's also evident that someone left the gate open (to the left of the text box in the image). The image shows two subs a week earlier, down to one during the attack.
@blokeuptheroad, please jump in with your knowledge (rather than my guess) 😀
There's not a lot to go on but that's a decent sized warhead for sure. It was clearly detonated sub surface. It is highly likely also, that a sub-surface drone designed to attack shipping would have utilised a shaped charge warhead to penetrate the hull. It is inconceivable that the submarine is currently serviceable. That's not to say it can't be repaired, but if so I doubt it will be a quick fix.
The camera footage is interesting. The way it pans, it almost looks like it's a static CCTV camera. That's speculation, but If Ukraine has hacked into CCTV in a Russian military port, it is hugely embarrassing for Russia.
The effect of this is more than just one submarine, it's pretty strategic. Compared to Sevastopol, Novorossiysk was "fairly" safe. Not any more and sub-surface drones are much, much harder to detect and intercept than the surface drones previously used. Russia is running out of options. I don't think it has any other suitable deep water ports in the Black Sea and obviously the Bosphorus is blocked to military shipping.
Ukraine has effectively neutered the whole Black Sea fleet and this gives them free reign to attack the shadow fleet with relative impunity.
I think that you're correct about the CCTV hacking too 👍
Where are we on the "pronouncements cycle", is it one or two away from calling Zelensky a dictator again?
Anyway. Some updated peace plan proposals in that link, not agreed by Putin.
Not that I'd be trusting the current US admin to actually enforce any guarantees, Europe really does need to sort it's shit out.
I'm not expending huge amounts of energy on this ATM.
Unless something has massively changed Russia will reject it, which leads us back to the "pronouncements cycle".
I think that you're right, it all comes back to Trump and who he chooses to pressure. He isn't a popular bunny just now with most people including (surprisingly) US Speaker, Mike Johnson, who has turned his back over Trump's Rob Reiner outburst.
Not even Johnson could pretend not to have heard about it and therefore wasn't able to comment (as he has a history of doing)
We'll see if that effects change
Would the drones be autonomous ? ie sit on the sea bed and wait for the boom to open then creep in?
Or manned remotely like a FPV style and driven very slowly to not set off any acoustic listening devices up to the boom then a camera and sonar help guide it to the target.
I know subs have to nearly surface to get comms but how could this have been piloted ? by another sub drone a few miles away acting like a relay beacon, or from space with SatCom from a US spybird . Maybe just done on a pre programmed route and they were lucky the door was left open , but thats a target rich environment right there. Shame half a dozen werent deployed and some of those Corvette / Frigate boats didnt sink as well , plus the other sub that was also moored up.
I am guessing to a large degree to be honest. Earlier in the year Ukraine shared a few details of their 'Toloka' series of sub-surface drones. Tech info was scant but there are a range of different sizes. They appear to be semi-submersible in that they have a small comms mast which sits above the surface. I don't think they are autonomous. To carry out the most recent attack in that crowded harbour, with a complex approach and carefully timed entry to avoid any boom or similar would be difficult to achieve autonomously.
Their 'Sea Baby' surface drones do appear to be FPV, with cameras and (possibly) Starlink antennas, so a similar guidance system seems likely. The large Tolokas are claimed to have very long ranges (up to 2000km) and a loitering capability of weeks. All this info is a bit scant tbh with a lot of speculation. Here's a mock up diagram and some claimed images of one of the smaller variants. There's nothing I'm aware of to suggest this was the actual weapon used, but it seems likely it was this or something similar. However, in the footage of the attack I couldn't see any mast or wake, but it wasn't that detailed or zoomed in. So... no clear answer!
From this:
To that:
I am guessing to a large degree to be honest. Earlier in the year Ukraine shared a few details of their 'Toloka' series of sub-surface drones. Tech info was scant but there are a range of different sizes. They appear to be semi-submersible in that they have a small comms mast which sits above the surface. I don't think they are autonomous. To carry out the most recent attack in that crowded harbour, with a complex approach and carefully timed entry to avoid any boom or similar would be difficult to achieve autonomously.
Their 'Sea Baby' surface drones do appear to be FPV, with cameras and (possibly) Starlink antennas, so a similar guidance system seems likely. The large Tolokas are claimed to have very long ranges (up to 2000km) and a loitering capability of weeks. All this info is a bit scant tbh with a lot of speculation. Here's a mock up diagram and some claimed images of one of the smaller variants. There's nothing I'm aware of to suggest this was the actual weapon used, but it seems likely it was this or something similar. However, in the footage of the attack I couldn't see any mast or wake, but it wasn't that detailed or zoomed in. So... no clear answer!
,,
Here's it's big brother!
I noted there was a reference to Russia learning tactical lessons quickly closing the gap with the Ukrainians in the Chief of the Defence Staff speech yesterday. Inevitable, but concerning. I think one of the major strengths has been the co-development of tactics on Interflex that has given the Ukrainians a significant advantage.
A really good speech, measured and impactful.
LCpl George Hooley - 1st Battalion, The Parachute Regiment was repatriated today.
A man who lost his life in support of the supporting the freedom of others.
An extract from the letter he wrote for his loved ones in the event of his death:
If you're reading this, it means i didn't make it home. Please don't let that be the thing that breaks you, you know I was doing what I believed in as well as loved, with people I respected. and for reasons that mattered to me, my country, and democracy and freedom in this world. I was proud of what I was doing.
Rest in Power.
^RIP indeed
Looks like the sub was a near miss rather than a direct hit. It'll still take months of testing in dry dock to see if it can be made safe to operate, or not, at very best.
Looks like the sub was a near miss rather than a direct hit. It'll still take months of testing in dry dock to see if it can be made safe to operate, or not, at very best.
presume the strategic stuff (ie, oh shit our stuff isnt safe in this port anymore) still counts?
Aye, guess so
In the before and after satellite pictures it looks too me like the sub has moved or been moved to the right a fair chunk. In the before the stern looks to be almost right in the corner.
I noted there was a reference to Russia learning tactical lessons quickly closing the gap with the Ukrainians in the Chief of the Defence Staff speech yesterday. Inevitable, but concerning. I think one of the major strengths has been the co-development of tactics on Interflex that has given the Ukrainians a significant advantage.
A really good speech, measured and impactful.
Despite what some claimed. I found the full text to be very rational with a measured assessment of risk/likelihood/means to reduce/inhibit what is clearly a growing threat.
On that general subject
I don't really buy into the line of "it's far away from us". I think once one or two eastern NATO members are attacked, their neighbours will be drawn in and that will pull most everyone else in Europe in as well. Even without an effective triggering of A5.
The explosion has annihilated quite a length of concrete quay, if it had hit the sub direct it would have sunk it. Not to say the pressure hull isn't damaged, rudderons propulsor, drive shaft, seals etc likely all knackered too.
Anyway. Its probably bollocksed.
Whether the sub was critically damaged or not has become moot. Russia has effectively taken its Black Sea fleet offline in response to the drone attack. I'd call that a good result. Not that they were doing that much with them before anyway.
https://bsky.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social/post/3ma7bk76muc2y
I noted there was a reference to Russia learning tactical lessons quickly closing the gap with the Ukrainians in the Chief of the Defence Staff speech yesterday. Inevitable, but concerning. I think one of the major strengths has been the co-development of tactics on Interflex that has given the Ukrainians a significant advantage.
A really good speech, measured and impactful.
Despite what some claimed. I found the full text to be very rational with a measured assessment of risk/likelihood/means to reduce/inhibit what is clearly a growing threat.
On that general subject
I don't really buy into the line of "it's far away from us". I think once one or two eastern NATO members are attacked, their neighbours will be drawn in and that will pull most everyone else in Europe in as well. Even without an effective triggering of A5.
Indeed. It reads very differently in full.
The new boss at MI6 had an equally measured speech as well.
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/speech-by-blaise-metreweli-chief-of-sis-15-december-2025
This could go in any number of threads tbf
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/dec/17/defense-bill-congress-ukraine-europe
The Senate backed the bill by 77 to 20, with strong support from both parties. The House passed the bill last week. In a break with Trump, whose fellow Republicans hold majorities in both the House and Senate, this year’s NDAA includes several provisions to boost security in Europe, despite Trump early this month releasing a national security strategy seen as friendly to Russia and a reassessment of the US relationship with Europe.
The fiscal 2026 NDAA provides $800m for Ukraine – $400m in each of the next two years – as part of the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which pays US companies for weapons for Ukraine’s military.
It also authorizes the Baltic Security Initiative and provides $175m to support Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia’s defense. And it limits the Department of Defense’s ability to drop the number of US forces in Europe to fewer than 76,000 and bars the US European commander from giving up the title of Nato supreme commander.
This could go in any number of threads tbf
Came here to add the Reuters article. It's noticeable that Congress is slowly diverging from the WH on several issues 👍
Whether the sub was critically damaged or not has become moot. Russia has effectively taken its Black Sea fleet offline in response to the drone attack. I'd call that a good result. Not that they were doing that much with them before anyway.
The problem with some of the fleet is that it can be used to launch missiles to attack Ukraine's population and infrastructure.
Russia's nuclear fleet is allowed to launch nukes from the dockside, I don't know if that applies to conventional subs/missiles but if so then two or three out of four are still a threat.
The improved Kilo-class subs each have four Kalibr cruise missiles launchers. They're down to two operational subs out of four of the class after one was attacked twice in Sevastopol in September '23 and finally finished off in July '24. On those occasions the sub was in for repairs; dry-dock during the 2023 attack and then alongside after it was floating again in 2024. The second one out of operational use is the one from the 15th.
Russia only has a certain level of repair capability in the Black Sea and the best of that was in Sevastopol, which is now a huge risk ^^
You might recall the Russian Kilo-class sub, Novorossiysk, navigating the English Channel in October with its support tug Yakov Grebelsky. The same thing happened a week ago with the Kilo-class sub Krasnodar and support tug Altay. Their problem is the loss of a lot of their facilities in Syria with the reduction in the size of the Tartus naval base. They now have to travel to the Baltic Sea ports for repair, an option not open to the Black Sea Fleet
This article explains the likely damage to the sub attacked on the 15th, but it is informed speculation https://en.defence-ua.com/news/9_meter_concrete_crater_and_flooded_compartments_satellite_image_confirms_critical_damage_to_russian_sub-16846.html
Russia published a video taken from a limited angle to show that their sub wasn't damaged. All that did was a) allow OSINT folk to identify the sub and b) raise queries about the damage to the stern section that strangely wasn't filmed.
The article doesn't address my query about the possibility of launching missiles and I'm definitely not a naval expert https://en.defence-ua.com/news/varshavyanka_class_submarine_hit_in_novorossiysk_has_been_identified_the_best_of_three_possible_outcomes-16853.html
This could go in any number of threads tbf
Came here to add the Reuters article. It's noticeable that Congress is slowly diverging from the WH on several issues 👍
Yep, honestly I think GOP are starting to think about a post Trump world. If you listen to MAGA types they'll make out "this is what America thinks" but when large scale surveys are (at least the ones I've seen) conducted, the US electorate supports both NATO and Ukraine overall. And Trump seems to be losing independent voters which he needed last time round to win.
I don't really buy into the line of "it's far away from us". I think once one or two eastern NATO members are attacked, their neighbours will be drawn in and that will pull most everyone else in Europe in as well. Even without an effective triggering of A5.
The US is a long way away from us and, to some extent, so is the UK, but here in Sweden I have no doubt that we would jump in to support Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania or Poland, hell any other nation in Europe if Russia rolled over the border. I have similar feelings that, if Russia decided it would make a move on Gotland, our neighbours in the Baltic would help us. This was true before we became a member of NATO and would still be true now.
I guess it helps that we have an independent (and well regarded) arms manufacturing capability and a very large reserve force and that war with Russia has been something we have planned for since WW2 ended and the Cold War kicked off.
Russia's nuclear fleet is allowed to launch nukes from the dockside, I don't know if that applies to conventional subs/missiles but if so then two or three out of four are still a threat.
I'm no naval expert either. I do think though that the Kilo class subs use their forward facing bow torpedo tubes to launch the Kalibr cruise missiles. I'm not sure that's viable when docked! The other missile carrying ships probably could I suspect. However, it does look from satellite images as if the military port is in a pretty built up area right next to a main road. Novorossiysk is a decent sized city (c260k). Apart from the possible risk should a launch go badly*, It's not a good look for your citizens to see your ships firing missiles from a tiny dock right next to the city, because they're too petrified to leave it!
* It happens!
I also wonder if the Russians have enough Anti-Air around that harbour. All thos ships are clustered really quite close together and just a couple of explosions like that one would cause a lot of damage.
Maybe the Ukrainians have left a couple of drones on the harbour floor for later...
Be a nice Xmas present for Vlad to have a Flamingo hit the ships that now can't leave the harbour because some dimlo sunk a barricade across the exit . Creating one massive headache for anyone wanting to leave in a hurry. Solving the problem of sub surface drones by leaving the remaining vessels impounded and open to opportunist Ariel attack.
The article doesn't address my query about the possibility of launching missiles and I'm definitely not a naval expert
I'm no naval expert either. I do think though that the Kilo class subs use their forward facing bow torpedo tubes to launch the Kalibr cruise missiles. I'm not sure that's viable when docked!
Seems like a pretty fair assumption, thanks.
Two, rather than three, of the improved Kilo-class remain as missile platforms then.
I'm not sure that those barges are sunk, those are the "gates" that have been there for more than a year, probably with sub nets hung below. They'll shift them with a tug. I think that you can see the tug alongside the central section ^^ (or maybe that's a spacefly on the satellite lens 😀 )
There's a larger version of the image on NBC News (right-click and select "open in new tab")
Maybe the Ukrainians have left a couple of drones on the harbour floor for later...
Who knows?
There was another Kilo parked next to the first at the time of the blast and another on the other side of the wall (groyne??). I'd have expected them to take advantage of the confusion
APN update on the EU funding to Ukraine
Thanks. An optimistic take. I hope it winds the Russians up as much as he predicts.
More Ukrainian attacks on Russian ships today.
A shadow fleet tanker hit by drones in the Med off the Libyan coast.
And a Corvette hit in the Black Sea.
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3maeclldh5k23
Thanks. An optimistic take. I hope it winds the Russians up as much as he predicts.
He certainly one only the more level headed pro Ukrainian accounts out there. Not particularly prone to the "it's worse than you think, why Russia is about to collapse" accounts I'm sure we all see.
The new boss at MI6 had an equally measured speech as well.
Just got to reading this. Glad some of those things are being worked on, social media can be a particularly poisonous source of shite that I have about on par with the Sunday Sport but with malicious intent.
More Ukrainian attacks on Russian ships today.
A shadow fleet tanker hit by drones in the Med off the Libyan coast.
There's a bit more floating around this morning (so to speak), but the main points are that the tanker was empty (as mentioned in your linked article) and it's unlikely to annoy Ukraine's supporters, which was an issue with the Black Sea strikes.
Another example of Ukraine's flexibility and innovation, especially when you consider the intell and logistics involved in striking an empty tanker off Libya.
And a Corvette hit in the Black Sea.
Is that the Caspian Sea strike?
A Rubin-class coastal patrol ship was struck, probably a variant with AK630 CIWS) and Igla man-portable air-defence system (MANPADS) that would have been sent to the Caspian Sea area for protection following two earlier attacks on the three main Lukoil fields there.
The drone image seems to be of a Rubin-class ship
On this occasion Ukraine also struck a drilling platform in the Filanovsky field. This is the first of the three attacks that Ukraine has publicly acknowledged.
KYIV, Dec 20 (Reuters) - Ukraine said its drones struck a Russian oil rig belonging to Lukoil (LKOH.MM) in the Caspian Sea and a military patrol ship near a rig as Kyiv steps up attacks on Moscow's oil infrastructure.
The attack, which Ukraine's general staff said took place on Friday, is one of a string of strikes targeting Russian drilling infrastructure in the Caspian Sea in recent weeks, but the first one that the Ukrainian military acknowledged officially. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ukraine-says-it-hit-russian-oil-rig-patrol-ship-caspian-sea-2025-12-20/
The strike by Ukraine on the sub in Novorossiysk refuses to leave the spotlight. It's apparent that Russia is having to pump it out to maintain appearances.
"A deadly missile submarine that the Kremlin said was “completely undamaged” by a Ukrainian drone attack hasn’t moved a meter from its moorings in four days and now has started to leak oil, according to new satellite imagery published on Friday of the Russian naval port Novorossiysk."
"Russian commanders evacuated two other submarines from the dock area and sank blocking ships at the mouth of the harbor, imagery from satellite overpasses on Wednesday and Thursday showed." https://www.kyivpost.com/post/66611
I'm still not convinced that blocking ships have been sunk, it doesn't make sense to close the harbour unnecessarily as others have commented ^^
Various informed sources don't mention this, e.g. UK MoD Defence Intelligence update of 20th December.
I've checked the charts and the harbour entrance has a depth of around 70'. Sinking a barge(s) there won't protect the harbour so I'm sticking with a lighting/angle/shadow effect and that the Russians are now closing the gate rather than relying on floating booms and other defences. Mea cupla, maybe 🤔
Ukraine struck a Russian RSP-6M2 radar system at the Kirovskoye Airfield in occupied Crimea in the early hours of Saturday. Air defence and surveillance systems have been taking a beating around Crimea in the last few weeks 🤔
“In order to reduce the enemy’s offensive capabilities, the RSP-6M2 radar system was recently hit in the Krasnosilske area, which is in the temporarily occupied territory of Ukrainian Crimea,” the update says.
“The RSP-6M2 is designed to regulate aircraft movement, in particular for their precise approach to landing in conditions of poor visibility.”"Between late November and early December, Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence (HUR) also said it struck eight targets in occupied Crimea, which included a Su-24 fighter-bomber, a domed radar antenna, a Kasta-2E2 (39N6E) Flatface-E target acquisition radar, a Kronshtadt Orion drone, two Podlet K1 (48Ya6-K1) mobile phased-array low-altitude tracking radars linked to S-300 and S-400 air-defense systems, a military cargo train, and a Ural 6×6 logistics truck." https://www.kyivpost.com/post/66645
President Putin is massively talking up Russian gains in Ukraine. He seems to be alone in this with his own military and milbloggers watering some claims down
"Even Russian milbloggers’ claimed advances do not support many of Putin’s claims, with milbloggers claiming that Russian forces have seized a maximum of about seven percent of Lyman and 11 percent of Kostyantynivka. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets further reported on December 18 that Russian forces are currently struggling to completely push Ukrainian forces out of southern Vovchansk."
"Putin, however, claimed that Ukrainian attempts to retake lost positions in Kupyansk have been unsuccessful and resulted in heavy losses. Putin claimed that these unsuccessful efforts should “encourage” Ukraine to end the war peacefully as Ukraine has “practically” no forces left to commit to the Kupyansk effort. Putin’s statements are the latest in the Kremlin’s ongoing cognitive warfare effort that aims to paint Ukrainian defenses as on the brink of collapse and a Russian victory as inevitable." https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-19-2025/
Always a possibility it's not Putin talking them up, but whoever is reporting them to Putin.
Steve Rosenberg: Asking the difficult questions. Huge respect for his reporting. I't can't be easy to keep the BBC front and centre in russia.
https://bbc.com/news/articles/c5y9ed5d1r4o
Russia's leader told our Russia editor that claims an attack on Europe was planned, were 'rubbish'
Hmm, now where and when have I heard that before? (Im not taking anything away from Rosenberg at all, just highly sceptical about Putin pronouncement)
Bloomberg reports that Pacific Investment Management Co and Witkoff Group defaulted on a $400 million LA apartment complex deal in July.
It's now accruing interest leading to the court filing.
Always a possibility it's not Putin talking them up, but whoever is reporting them to Putin.
It seems to be a bit six-of-one and half-a-dozen of the other. It's all grist to the reflexive control mill,
"False reports are likely shaping Russian President Vladimir Putin’s understanding of the battlefield situation. The Financial Times (FT) reported on December 22 that two unspecified officials stated that Russian military and security authorities regularly give Putin updates that inflate Ukrainian battlefield casualties, highlight Russia’s resource advantages, and downplay tactical failures."
"FT stated that the sources noted that Putin regularly meets with “confidants” who tell him that the war has become a “growing drag” on the Russian economy, however. The Washington Post reported on December 22 that a Russian official stated that a banking or non-payments crisis in Russia is possible and that they do not “want to think about a continuation of the war or an escalation.”"
"Putin notably presented even more exaggerated claims of battlefield successes on December 19 than either Belousov or Gerasimov did, suggesting that Putin himself is exaggerating the already inflated battlefield reports he receives as part of this cognitive warfare effort." https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-22-2025/
Ukraine's forces have officially withdrawn from Siversk in the Donetsk region of the Donbas.
Current conditions there are making drone surveillance and attacks difficult, while Russia is continuing to pressure the defenders
The loss of Siversk isn't making itself felt, yet, but Ukraine needs to keep the pressure on Russian forces there to prevent an advance towards the so-called "fortress belt" and Sloviansk. For context Siversk had a pre-war population around 1/10 of that of Sloviansk
Sloviansk would give Russian forces a road and rail network that could be exploited and is a logistics hub for Ukraine's forces. The major road through Sloviansk runs north-west from the Russian border to Kyiv, while the smaller Highway 20 links the cities and towns of the fortress belt, with Sloviansk at its northern end.
The aim must be to keep Russian forces away from the fortress belt for as long as possible to maintain maximum logistical support. On the positive side, Russian forces haven't shown the ability to take and hold a well-defended larger city like this
Hulyaipole is unfortunately looking likely to be the next candidate for a withdrawal by Ukraine's forces.
It won't happen in the next few days but on current form is likely to be several weeks down the line
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk. Russian forces recently advanced near Hulyaipole.
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-24-2025/
Serious concerns about Kupyansk were about six months in the making, beginning with Ukraine's military chiefs paying too little heed to a Russian bridgehead that was allowed to form. The pivot by Russia towards Pokrovsk was helpful to the situation in Kupyansk at what was by then a late stage.
I think that Hulyaipole is now at a late stage, although a change in the weather to allow drone operations will be helpful to the defenders. Reinforcements from the Sumy area have already been deployed
"Hulyaipole is located approximately 87 km (54 miles) east of Zaporizhzhia. Analysts previously warned that the fall of Hulyaipole could pave the way for Russian advances towards Zaporizhzhia, the regional capital."
"He said “very fierce fighting” is ongoing near the settlements of Dobropillya, Pryluky, and Varvarivka as Russian troops attempt to approach and enter these settlements along the *Pokrovske*-Hulyaipole route, which supplies the city."
"Earlier reports suggest that Russia captured nearby settlements under the cover of fog, while some analysts criticized the slow Ukrainian response, claiming it allowed Russian forces to probe weak points and advance.
Previously, military analyst Denys Popovych told Kyiv24 that if Hulyaipole were to fall, Zaporizhzhia itself and Orikhiv, another stronghold on the front, would be next."
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/66921
*Not Pokrovsk^^, but PokrovskE, in a different region
The other point to consider about all of these towns and cities is for the future, after this war is over.
If land is lost to Russia under de-facto agreement then Pokrovsk, for example, has higher ground that would give a military advantage to whoever controls it. It's also a coal-mining and coking centre that supplies much of Ukraine's steel industry.
This is one reason (amongst many) for Ukraine to keep the front lines as static as possible (and ideally advance) in the event of everything being frozen in place
Ukraine's drones didn't bounce off the rubber factory,
“In the city of Yefremov, Tula region, the facilities of the ‘Yefremov Synthetic Rubber Plant,’ which specializes in the production of components for plastic explosives and solid rocket fuel, were hit. Explosions and a large-scale fire were recorded on the production site,” the update says.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/66835
This could be misinformation intended as another wedge between the US and Europe, but it's equally likely to be true and is part of the largely discredited early 28-point peace plan (my bracketed comment)
"Speaking at the meeting with major business figures on Wednesday, Dec. 24, Putin said that Washington is interested in using the (Zaporizhzhia nuclear power) plant’s electricity for cryptocurrency mining, while also pushing to supply power to Ukraine, Kommersant reported."
"Zelensky said the US had proposed a three-party management system for the plant with Washington in the lead, while Ukraine wants to exclude Russia and operate the facility on equal footing with the US. The plan also envisions freezing the front line in Zaporizhzhia, meaning the ZNPP would remain under Russian military control if peace is signed."
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/66961
The Russian shadow fleet is becoming less shadowy
Flag-hopping shadow fleet starts to settle in Russia
- Shadow fleet ships are ending flag hopping in favour of direct Russian registration
- Russia’s ship register has increased in size by 40% since the invasion of Ukraine
- Shift towards Russia’s flag comes as EU is adding pressure on ship registers and seeking to board vessels
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1155952/Flag-hopping-shadow-fleet-starts-to-settle-in-Russia
That'll have to do. The editing function on here is starting to pee me off!
I just want to thank the knowledgeable contributors to this thread. I read it almost everyday.
I know it's uikely there will be an end to the war on terms that are acceptable to Ukraine or Russia & Putin facing any real consequence after, but you can hope.