To round off the US weapons pause saga, good news for Ukraine.
Germany is also looking to buy Patriot to enable transfers to Ukraine as well
"We're going to send some more weapons. We have to. They have to be able to defend themselves," Trump told reporters at the White House at the start of a dinner with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
"They're getting hit very hard now," he added. "We're going to have to send more weapons, defensive weapons, primarily."
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-says-us-will-send-more-weapons-ukraine-2025-07-08/
During May 2024 a purge of Russian senior defence officials began with five arrested within a month and Sergei Shoigu demoted https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c900qz4wll4o
It continued at a lower level into 2025, but has hit the headlines again this month:
Konstantin Strukov of Yuzhnuralzoloto gold mining; subject to state asset seizure,
Viktor Strigunov a former Rosgvardiya (National Guard) director; arrest for corruption,
Andrey Badalov, VP of Transneft oil; fell from a window,
Roman Starovoit former Transport Minister; shot himself after losing his job. It's reported that the gun used was an official gift
Timba, thanks for keeping this thread ticking over. I follow events in Ukraine quite closely, but haven't posted much in here as there hasn't been much to say. Russia's summer ground offensive is largely banging its head on a brick wall and Ukrainian defence is as determined as ever. The air war seems to be the most significant thing atm. Russia's ability to manufacture drones at scale despite sanctions is a concern. OTOH Ukraine has developed into a defence manufacturing and drone tech behemoth, with other countries flocking to them to buy kit. Their rapid innovation and manufacture upscaling is keeping them very much in the war.
Konstantin Strukov
Particularly interesting as he's one of Putin's oligarchs, and a significant donator. Tried to flee to Turkiye on his personal jet and was arrested on corruption charges
Anders Nielsen makes the interesting point that Trump's constant maddening on and off again assistance to Ukraine and sporadic talking tough on Putin is actually helpful to Russia.
If Trump had come into office and just said "That's it, Putin and I are besties, not one more bullet to Ukraine" then the rest of the West would have been forced to step up and whilst that would have been a horrible shock, by now the actions resulting from that scramble would have started to bare fruit.
As it is, Trump's ambiguity gives some people an excuse to sit on their hands in the hope that America will still rescue the situation without them having to do that much themselves.
I wonder if the Trump indecisivness and not supplying munitions to Ukraine would actually put him in breach of the agreement that he forced Zelensky to sign. It would be a terrible shame if it did and that whole agreement could be torn up and negotiated again (on better terms for UKR)
Russia's ability to manufacture drones at scale despite sanctions is a concern.
China stopped export of specific drone parts to everyone last year, but opened a facility that Russia uses in China https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-has-secret-war-drones-project-china-intel-sources-say-2024-09-25/
Last week this story emerged,
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the European Union’s top diplomat that Beijing can’t accept Russia losing its war against Ukraine as this could allow the United States to turn its full attention to China, an official briefed on the talks said, contradicting Beijing’s public position of neutrality in the conflict. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/07/04/europe/china-ukraine-eu-war-intl
If true the US would be well-served by helping to end rather than prolong this war
EDIT, the other problem with sanctions is that with time they effectively loosen as oil prices change and sanction-busting develops. The US hasn't changed sanctions since the last Biden-era changes
As it is, Trump's ambiguity gives some people an excuse to sit on their hands in the hope that America will still rescue the situation without them having to do that much themselves.
I don't tend to watch YT, but certain European countries are amongst the worst and have the most to lose. The further east you are the more the country seems to understand.
There's now a race to find the "best" way to invest the 1.5% of GDP set aside in the NATO 5% for national infrastructure. Italy's bridge to Sicily is the current winner for me https://www.politico.eu/article/italy-grand-plan-meet-nato-target-13-5b-bridge-sicily-donlad-trump-silvio-berlusconi-messina/
In a previous "up the defence spend to x% of GPD" I was tickled by Greece upping the pension contributions for the Armed Forces.
That ^ is quite imaginative, but if it helps with retention of trained personnel in the Greek forces, it seems perfectly reasonable.
The USA includes pensions in their defence spending, and NATO rules are set to allow for that:
"Retirement pensions made directly by the government to retired military and civilian employees of military departments and for active personnel is included in the NATO defence expenditure definition."
If you don't treat vets well, you don't get new signups.
If you can stand what is basically an hour-long Powerpoint presentation on the matter, Perun has a video about the NATO pledge.
The 3% increase is split equally between 1.5% for "core" military spending, and 1.5% for militarily useful stuff that isn't directly related to the military. Transport infrastructure is part of that, though unless there's a forecast for a significant need to move lots of NATO hardware between mainland Italy and Sicily then the Italian's bridge proposal might be seen as not following the spirit of the agreement.
Interestingly apparently the 1.5% increase on core military spending can be used on military aid to Ukraine.
Ukraine is a step away from withdrawing from the The Anti-Personnel Mine Ban Convention (aka several things including the Ottawa Convention) with just a vote to go. The paperwork is signed.
Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland are also in the process of leaving while Lithuania and Finland are planning domestic production of anti-personnel landmines next year to supply themselves and Ukraine. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/finland-lithuania-set-produce-anti-personnel-mines-officials-say-2025-07-09/
Russia and the US never signed up while the UK remains committed to the Convention (as of April, at least)
This Government remain committed to the Ottawa treaty and to the Convention on Cluster Munitions. Each treaty plays an important role in the protection of civilians, and we continue to use our best efforts to promote the treaties and their norms. (Landmines and Cluster Munitions. Lords Chamber Volume 845: debated on Thursday 3 April 2025)
It looks like a huge incease in air strikes by a Russia are they trying to force an end game (for talks?)
To me it looks like the (almost) stalemate on the frontlines is not going down well in Moscow? Frustration? Desperation?
So they bomb and maime the ordinary people.
Looks as a few top people have been died in suspicious circumstances again in Moscow as well. Two of them reportably shortly after being sacked !
Its mid summer already.
Can the west shut the "grey" market down for the tech being sold and shame countries still trading with Russia?
Moscovites and Peterburgians are totally anesthesised from Ukraine - unless they get called up.
but his 'threat' for Putin is sanctions (100% tariffs) if theres no deal in 50 days!
hes placed much stiffer conditions on trade talks with countries America is supposedly allied with!
Japan is now sending spy satellite info directly to Ukraine.
Still not sending weapons but it's a big step for Japan, and reduces Ukraine's reliance on US satellites if Trump has another hissy fit
but his 'threat' for Putin is sanctions (100% tariffs) if theres no deal in 50 days!
hes placed much stiffer conditions on trade talks with countries America is supposedly allied with!
True, can't disagree with that. I was more focused on the provision of the Patriot batteries though. I'm under no illusions that Trump has lost his man crush on Putin or suddenly become a staunch and reliable ally to Ukraine. More air defence capability in the current daily drone and ballistic missile onslaught is still welcome though. Even if provided reluctantly by the orange shit gibbon.
They won’t be shooting down shaheed drones with Patriot missiles. These will be used to take out cruise missiles and ballistic missiles.
I'm aware of that, perhaps I should just have said "aerial bombardment"? 😊
Duplicate post
A bit of news, contrary to US claims that Europe doesn't pull its financial weight.
Europe largely fills the weapons financial gap, led by the Nordic countries and UK https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications/news/ukraine-support-europe-largely-fills-the-us-aid-withdrawal-lead-byn-the-nordics-and-the-uk/
This isn't the same as specific systems and volumes that only the US can fill
Maybe a slight deviation but I found it interesting.
I was watching one of those 'reaction' videos on YouTube, it was an American watching one about the training provided by the British Army to Ukrainian recruits. He was totally unaware of this, like it never gets a mention in the American media.
Here we are aware of what we are doing but also that America is (was?) giving weapons, the Dutch and Swedes training pilots, Canada's help in training soldiers, the weapons Germany and France are giving, the fact that the Baltics are smaller donors but compared to the size of the their economies some of the biggest proportionally, that Japan is now providing satellite intel and that Poland is really gearing up to face anything. And probably a lot more.
How much of Trump's 'it's all America, were doing everything' bollocks is believed by the US populous because of their media being so focused on what the US are doing, to the extent that that an apparently well educated American with an interest in the outside world was unaware of other contributions? I could understand Fox glossing over it but the rest of them?
Anyway, I just found it odd that he knew nothing about this
The subject of Azerbaijan seems to be hitting a raw nerve and keeps popping up
The Kremlin dismissed First Deputy Director-General of the Kremlin newswire TASS, Mikhail Gusman, likely in a continued effort to increase control over domestic media sources affecting Russian-Azerbaijani relations. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin relieved Gusman on July 24 without any further explanation. Reuters reported on July 25 that Gusman recently praised Azerbaijan for maintaining relations with different countries at an event hosted by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. Russian authorities recently raided the offices of Baza, a Russian outlet reportedly affiliated with Russian law enforcement, and have been cracking down on media outlets that present stories that challenge the Kremlin's ideal narratives of the war in Ukraine.
https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-25-2025
The subject of Azerbaijan has been loosely connected with the invasion of Ukraine since Russia failed to honour their Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) obligations to protect Armenia (CSTO member) from Azerbaijan (non-member) during their September 2022 conflict.
CSTO is a NATO analogue and Armenia froze its membership, refused to pay, started military exercises with the US and talked about EU membership.
Since then the Zangezur corridor has again emerged as a hot topic (it's been simmering for years), connecting Nakhichevan, a land-locked enclave, to Azerbaijan through Armenia. Azerbaijan to Azerbaijan if you like and the route is supported by Turkiye, but opposed by Armenia and Iran.
Russia offered to police the route which would give them influence in the region, which was part of the 19C Russian Empire and, later, Soviet territory. Their recent CSTO history of managing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan evidences the problem with this proposal. The Christmas shooting down of an Azerbaijan Airlines aircraft isn't helping international relations either
The US has recently offered to manage the route, effectively cutting Iran's access and trade with the S. Caucasus via Armenia. It would also reduce Iran's standing with China who would also like regional access, while strengthening the presence of the US and Turkiye on Iran's northern border. It wouldn't be well-received in Russia either
No decisions have been made and Azerbaijan is quite happy to partner with Turkiye, connecting the Turkic world without third-party intervention; Armenia and Iran are much less happy
Ukraine getting battered every night at the mo, and as this thread shows, no-one gives a flying.
and as this thread shows, no-one gives a flying.
Show your working?
Ukraine getting battered every night at the mo, and as this thread shows, no-one gives a flying.
You said more or less the same on the 19th of last month.
What have you contributed?
Yep, started my day with Paul Warburg and listening to Ukrainecast next.
Always appreciate the updates on here from those more knowledgeable than me.
Yep, started my day with Paul Warburg and listening to Ukrainecast next.
Similar. Those and others. I hoover up any news from Ukraine I can find, every single day. I post infrequently on here as I seldom have anything of value to add. It certainly doesn't mean I don't give a flying ****!!
Ditto
I'm a regular visitor to this page, rarely post, reasonably up to date with YouTube interpretations of the situation in Ukraine. I doubt I'd be able to post something that I thought was unique so I don't bother.
I look forward to the day the conflict ends.
I do accept that Ukraine has dropped off the general public's agenda but not those on this thread.
I talk to people all day for a living and unless I mention it, it rarely comes up.
I regularly check this thread for updates and for the last month or so I have started listening to Times Radio via their Ap. Their Frontline show repeats during the week at 4.30 am and is also available via their YouTube channel or via podcast at https://shows.acast.com/frontline
These are very much up to date and have some high ranking guests with very good insight. Well worth checking out for anyone interested.
They also have a show called the 'Trump Report' which repeats in the 30 minutes prior to FL, but I guess that is for another thread.......
I certainly haven’t forgotten about Ukraine and I wish there more I could contribute. Sadly, I’m a fat old man with little money and even less combat experience so there’s not much I can actually do.
Azerbaijan again
WASHINGTON, Aug 1 (Reuters) - President Donald Trump's administration is actively discussing with Azerbaijan the possibility of bringing that nation and some Central Asian allies into the Abraham Accords, hoping to deepen their existing ties with Israel, according to five sources with knowledge of the matter.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/trump-eyes-bringing-azerbaijan-central-asian-nations-into-abraham-accords-2025-08-01/
Exclusive: US sanctions force vessels with Russian oil to divert from India, sources say.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-sanctions-force-vessels-with-russian-oil-divert-india-sources-say-2025-08-01/
This is in response to US sanctions on Iran and its fleet that carry Russian oil, rather than President Trump's threatened 100% tariff.
I have to say that I'm sceptical about the tariff threat. China takes huge quantities of cheap Russian oil and Trump has only just come to an arrangement over tariffs with them; I can't imagine him kicking that particular hornets' nest again
A Ukrainian soldier appears to have been rescued by the delivery of an e-bike by drone after becoming surrounded on the front line.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/l0057c2r
He apparently survived setting a landmine off while on the bike; what tyres for...
Schwalbe Marathon Plus presumably
Slightly different to how the Russians deal with their wounded...
Just trying to keep the conflict in peoples minds, as it is all I can do.
Fair enough 👍
It's never far from my mind and I suspect that's the same for many on here. I'm sure it wasn't intentional, but your post jarred with me a little (and others it seems) as it gave the impression you thought WE didn't care, because WE weren't regularly posting on here. I follow the conflict very closely, I have several friends working in mine clearing in Ukraine. I have been fairly prolific on this thread in the past, but these days I mostly read as it's seldom I feel I can contribute anything original or useful. Please don't take my lack of posts as disinterest, as that's very far from the truth. I suspect it's the same for many of the regulars on here.
Like BUTR, I take a keen interest too but probably without the insider connections.
We looked after a friend who fled the early days of the war when tanks were in Kyiv (she is back there again now), support a couple of trusted people there financially where possible, buy stamps with added donations and other lower level stuff.
Not posting doesn't mean disengaged at all...
Anyhow, lets keep this thread going.
Yup, fully engaged following things closely and currently in spousal negotiations to volunteer to drive a donated vehicle from the UK to Kyiv to deliver it to it's unit.
But, as stated above don't think I have a huge amount to contribute so not posting as much as I used to.
@timba does an excellent job of summarising updates from a wide range of sources, keeping the thread informative and current for readers. I'd say many here show admirable restraint in avoiding the kind of repetitive discussion, speculation, and argument that tends to derail similar threads elsewhere. To be honest he's wasted here and would be better use in an Intelligence Cell producing reports, he's missed his calling in life!
I have friends still serving in the UK Armed Forces, some of whom are directly involved in Op Interflex and other training missions, as well as deployed with NATO’s enhanced forward presence, so out of respect and at their request I don't share what we may talk about privately. And like @blokeuptheroad, I was a professional soldier for a significant part of my life so warfare and its wider impact on geopolitics and global stability was part of a professional preoccupation that’s hard to simply switch off.
So instead of “no-one gives a flying,” maybe consider that not everyone needs to constantly broadcast their concern or commentary. Instead of throwaway remarks, you could try engaging. Ask a question, show some interest. You might be surprised by the kind of thoughtful, informed responses you’d get in return.
Thanks all, it's appreciated to know that I don't bore the rowlocks off you (all). Intelligence and me? 🤣
KYIV, Aug 4 (Reuters) - Ukraine's domestic security service said on Monday that it destroyed one Russian jet fighter and damaged four other military aircraft during an overnight drone strike on Russian-occupied Crimea.
In a statement, it said it had struck a military aviation depot, "completely" destroying one Su-30, damaging another, and also damaging three Su-24 jet bombers.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-it-destroyed-one-russian-military-jet-damaged-four-crimea-2025-08-04/
UK MOD has posted satellite images on TwitterX of Hardened Aircraft Shelters (HAS) being built inside Russia and occupied areas of Ukraine. The images show Millerovo (Rostov), Kursk Vostochny (err, Kursk), and Hvardiiske (Crimea) air bases.
Some HAS appear to be earth over an arched steel structure; experts...is this normal or more of an anti-drone thing while waiting for a concrete pour?
The next one is a bit longer, but TLDR:
- oil prices are taking a hit because of OPEC+ actions,
- UK MPs were concerned in January about a Russian shadow fleet environmental disaster affecting UK waters
- volumes of Russian oil exported by sea have been falling all year
- prices of Russian oil falling below the cap mean that international fleets can legally transport Russian oil
- shadow fleet tankers are used less and less
- Russia's SVR (formerly KGB) have uncovered a UK plot to damage shadow fleet tankers in UK waters to cause an environmental disaster and so blame Russia
Ukraine continues to publicly strike Russia's oil infrastructure including facilities outside the cities of Sochi, Ryazan, Penza and Voronezh. Attacks at a time of seasonal demand with repair works urgently needed will probably cause fuel shortages in Russia.
In January, Labour MPs Uma Kumaran and Tim Roca called for UK waters to be declared off-limits to shadow fleet shipping because of the possibility of a Russian shadow fleet environmental disaster affecting UK waters
Oil prices have been slowly dropping since then on an increased supply, while demand is reducing
The EU is buying smaller volumes of Russian crude oil and gas, but still well over €1bn and led, predictably, by Hungary (PM Orban) and Slovakia (PM Fico)
In July the EU agreed its 18th sanctions package and the UK further sanctioned Russia shadow fleet tankers,
LONDON, July 21 (Reuters) - Britain on Monday imposed new sanctions on Russia's so-called "shadow fleet", targeting 135 oil tankers along with two Russian firms, shipping company Intershipping Services LLC and oil trader Litasco Middle East DMCC. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk-targets-135-russian-shadow-fleet-tankers-with-fresh-sanctions-2025-07-21/
Russia's overall exports of oil by sea have been declining and, because the price of oil has fallen, their use of shadow fleet vessels and potentially disastrous ship-to-ship transfers to break sanctions has also reduced because "western" shipping can legally carry the lower-priced oil.
If Russia hasn't agreed a ceasefire by Friday 8th (unlikely) then President Trump will consider secondary tariffs on countries buying their oil, reducing exports further.
U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to impose 100% secondary tariffs on Russian crude buyers as he seeks to pressure Moscow into halting its war in Ukraine.
Trump on Monday said he will substantially raise tariffs on India over its purchases of Russian oil, after two Indian government sources told Reuters over the weekend that the country will keep buying oil from Moscow despite Trump's threats. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-falls-opec-output-hike-adds-oversupply-concerns-2025-08-03/
I still consider tariffs unlikely^^, although he seems to be concentrating on India, rather than China, possibly because India has opposed him publicly,
RT (used to be Russia Today, not the BBC listings) has reported on a plot uncovered by Russia's SVR (formerly KGB) whereby the UK will attack the shadow fleet and cause an environmental disaster. The UK will use Ukraine's forces to shift blame as happened with the Nord Stream pipeline explosions*
The plot is reported in various media and their various experts think that it may be:
to insure against Russia being blamed for their old (in shipping terms 15 years+) fleet of tankers causing an environmental disaster either due to a lack of maintenance or simply age. This is exacerbated by ship-to-ship transfers to avoid port inspections, or
to warn the "west" off intercepting their fleet, or
to be able to use a naturally occurring accident as a provocation by the "west"
*The Nord Stream pipeline explosions have been recently assessed as unlikely to have been caused by the "west" and/or Ukraine^^, despite an investigative report from Germany
...we assess as highly improbable the theory that the United States military (with help from the Norwegian military) was to blame for the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 sabotage.
• Furthermore, we assess as improbable that a group of Ukrainian commandos operating from a rental sailboat was behind the destruction of the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines.• Moreover, we assess as probable that the Russian Federation was involved in the Nord Stream sabotage incidents.
UNDERWATER MAYHEM: Countering Threats to Energy and Critical Infrastructure Across the NATO Alliance and Beyond Volume 01
BENJAMIN L. SCHMITT
MICHAŁ KURTYKA
ALAN RILEYUniversity of Pennsylvania May 2025
The HAS thing is something that NATO/most other nations have been doing for some time (as long as I can remember) when they have aircraft deployed. It was certainly unusual to see things outside of a structure that could take a 1000lb bomb to the face if you were on an RAF or USAF base in the 80's/90's.
That the Russians are making temporary structures now (and more permanent ones) is likely to be a direct response to the drone threat where even a small FPV drone with an RPG warhead strapped to it can take out an unprotected plane. I am genuinely surprised that they have taken this long to do it given how publically effective the UKR drones have been. Maybe the threat is no longer just one that could happen, but one that is likely to and the investment is worth it.
UK MOD has posted satellite images on TwitterX of Hardened Aircraft Shelters (HAS) being built inside Russia and occupied areas of Ukraine.
As Willard says, very much the norm during the cold war. If you Google RAF Leuchars and look to the east of the camp you'll see a collection of them. There also still on quite a few camps, mostly now house vehicles and stores.
Very good at protecting planes from artillery and aerial bombardement, hence why the USA spent a lot of time developing 'bunker busters'.
I can't see a reason why they can't do the same for drones. However the doors are not quick closers.
Have we done the theft and and publication of classified details of Russia's newest nuclear sub by Ukraine? A huge embarrassment to the Kremlin which will potentially allow Russia's enemies to exploit technical or tactical weaknesses in their strategic nuclear capability. A pound to a pinch of shit - they are withholding even more sensitive info than that they have published. I would not have wanted to be the Kremlin lackey tasked with telling Putin about this!
Key points:
Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate (HUR) has acquired a full set of classified internal documentation concerning the Russian Navy’s newest nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, “Knyaz Pozharsky”, part of the Borei-A (Project 955A) class.
According to an official HUR statement published on August 3, the obtained materials include comprehensive technical, operational, and personnel-related information. The documents reportedly detail:
-
Full name-by-name crew lists, including positions, qualifications, and physical fitness levels;
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Combat manuals and daily operational schedules;
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Schematics of the vessel’s combat systems, survivability infrastructure, and internal crew hierarchy;
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Onboard protocols for casualty evacuation, cargo transfers, and towing procedures;
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Engineering documentation, including an official report on a deformed communications buoy, listing involved organizations and commission members.
Additionally, HUR gained access to excerpts from the submarine’s internal schedule book, governing the daily combat and routine activities aboard the vessel.
Paul Warburg's take on it. A very good watch.
The HAS thing is something that NATO/most other nations have been doing for some time
The USSR also had them. The problem for Russia is they only did so for their front line bases and so most of their remaining bases dont have them.
a structure that could take a 1000lb bomb to the face
They're built to withstand a direct hit from a 500lb bomb, and a near-miss from anything larger.
Christ, I'm such a nerd.
@timba does an excellent job of summarising updates from a wide range of sources, keeping the thread informative and current for readers. I'd say many here show admirable restraint in avoiding the kind of repetitive discussion, speculation, and argument that tends to derail similar threads elsewhere
That really. I read what's on here, and a lot elsewhere, about what's going on in Ukraine, but rarely comment as there appears to be quite a few folks like timba, blokeuptheroad, madalorian, etc who know a lot more than I do and I don't feel I can add much useful info. I mentioned the Japanese satellite intelligence as no one else had but that's rare.
This thread is a good news amalgamation source without too much forum noise or chunner. Keep up the good work all involved, I always read but I expect like most I have nothing to add.
Azerbaijan, again, and an agreement with Armenia over the Zangezur corridor, which will henceforth be known as TRIPP, the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity.
It promotes the Abraham Accords (see 1st Aug^^), but this article doesn't spell out either the details of Turkiye's involvement or the impact on Iran's access north through the S. Caucasus to Georgia and Russia.
This deal has pushed Russia out of that project and the CSTO (NATO analogue) is still without the active support of Armenia. We can assume that Turkiye is "in" because Azerbaijan and Armenia can both open further trade there, albeit not as independently as Turkiye would have liked, while Iran is "out".
Russia has a military base in Armenia, although Russia was hesitant to assist in concluding the Armenia-Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh war that ended in Nov 2020. The future of that base and the CSTO will be an interesting measure of Russia's influence in the region
When Armenia and Azerbaijan fought again in September 2022 and Armenia asked for active assistance from Russia, nothing happened. Nancy Pelosi visited Armenia a few days later and probably kicked off the process of US support in the region.
Armenia applied to join the International Criminal Court (ICC) the following year, six months after a warrant was issued by the ICC for President Putin, a measure of relations between the two
Under a carefully negotiated section of the documents the leaders will sign on Friday, Armenia plans to award the United States exclusive special development rights for an extended period on a transit corridor that will be named the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, and known by the acronym TRIPP, the officials said.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-secures-strategic-transit-corridor-armenia-azerbaijan-peace-deal-2025-08-07/
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Russia's SVR (formerly KGB) have uncovered a UK plot to damage shadow fleet tankers in UK waters to cause an environmental disaster and so blame Russia
Quite a nice ploy to have as many countries as possible planning this so that there is no safe port or passage for these ships.
It's only a matter of time before one of those rust bucket shadow fleet tankers causes a massive environmental catastrophe so I guess the Russians are getting their excuses/blame deflection in early.
One I forgot earlier.
This underscores the enmity that exists with Russia, but also links Azerbaijan to Ukraine (in case you were wondering 😀)
KYIV, July 28 (Reuters) - Ukraine's state-owned oil and gas major Naftogaz has signed its first deal with Azerbaijan's SOCAR to import a small volume of Azeri-origin natural gas via the Transbalkan route, it said on Monday. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ukraine-signs-first-transbalkan-gas-deal-with-azerbaijans-socar-2025-07-28/
Ukraine is monitoring supplies to ensure that Russian gas doesn't get mixed in so that they in effect subsidise Russia's invasion (nope, no idea how you do that when part of the system was used to pump Russian gas to Romania).
However, a couple of days ago Russia struck a compressor station in the Odessa region on the EU (Romania) border, stopping Transbalkan pipeline operations and preventing reserves being stocked for winter in Ukraine by that route. Russian propagandists made it very clear that Russia was sending a message to Azerbaijan
It's a blow to both the EU and Azerbaijan who want to elbow Russia out of the energy market; the EU is still somewhat reliant on Russian gas (Hungary and Slovakia also use their oil, despite having options). The US supplies LNG to Ukraine via the same route
President Trump is being "tapped along" by President Putin again
Putin seems to have pulled off another reprieve on sanctions, while Trump has pushed India back towards Russia and China with tariffs
On top of that he's rewarded Putin with a bilateral summit in the US, which is normally reserved for significant discussions. Of course, it's significant for Ukraine to preserve lives, but this is a temporary ceasefire, not lasting peace and an end
It's also not clear what's been offered to get Putin to the US; land apparently, so maybe he'll get a chunk of Alaska back too
putin / trump meeting outcomes worst case scenario. Zelensky not attending, Europe not attending.
A deal is tabled and agreed in principle between putin and trump which ends russian hostilities as a trade for Ukraine ceding territory to russia. Already suggested in the media.
Zelensky dismisses this as it rewards the aggressor. trump then makes further purchase of US weapons and technology a condition of acceptance, ie, don't agree, no more US support via Europe.
Although all attempts to end the conflict are admirable, trump is really working angles to get the Nobel peace prize but that issue is for the trump thread.
Trump's talking about swapping territories
“But we’re gonna get some [territory] back. We’re gonna get some switched. There’ll be some swapping of territories, to the betterment of both.”
How much of that is Trump doing his usual "Say the first thing that comes into my head" routine remains to be seen. I can't imagine either Russia or Ukraine being content with a settlement that sees a land swap.
Can we expect the US authorities to carry out the ICC Arrest Warrant when Putin is in Alaska? Can we ****...
US don't recognise the ICC so no chance I'm afraid.
nope, no idea how you do that when part of the system was used to pump Russian gas to Romania
I guess the exact composition varies between different gas fields. Maybe the relevant fields have distinct % of methane?
US don't recognise the ICC
Well, there's a chuffing surprise. Why not host him in Washington then, one wonders 🤷♂️
I assume the territory switch will be that Russia retreats in some areas in return for gains in other areas - all within Ukraines borders
Fingers crossed for an assassination in Alaska 🤞
Fingers crossed for an assassination in Alaska
Let's not go there. I understand why you feel that way but that's not how to make the world better.
US/NATO is thinking of dividing the "spoils" of war by assuming the WWII scenario.
The Very best outcome of the discussion for US/NATO and Ukraine is Russia only keeps the small area where they captured. If this is the case then Russia has actually conceded or failed in the entire operation. Which in a way is a humiliation for Russia because they have sacrificed so many of their forces for little gain.
My view is that Russia will only agree on the followings:
1. Ukraine will be divided West and East Ukraine i.e. becoming two countries with the natural dividing line from the river that split the country into two. (note: East Ukraine is the "real" Ukraine so they can keep that)
2. Ukraine to be totally disarmed with no international peace keeping force allows.
3. Ukraine is prohibited from joining NATO.
Anything less means Russia has failed and this is unacceptable for Russia.
However, Zelensky is not yielding because he knows without the war he will not have the full power, and will probably need to seek asylum in USA or some NATO States. Therefore, Zelensky will never agree. Even with pressure from US/NATO Zelensky will not yield for his own safety reason. Currently he is protected in war but if the war stops, his protection will disappear, and his personal safety will come into question.
Hence, the war will continue in a slow grinding manner for many years. My view is that it is a 10 year war. If the war reaches the 10 year line, most of Ukrainian young people (men and some women) would have disappeared and they will lack workforce to rebuild the country.
Unlike previous wars, the current war is showcasing plenty of technological related weapons that can be highly specific in only targeting those in the battle. The drone warfare is so difficult to deal with that I see no immediate solution to counter such weapon at all. The conventional weapons are almost useless against FPV drones and even the armoured vehicles are being turned into scrap metals.
It seems inevitable that Trump will return to his pro-Putin position as demonstrated previously. I think the recent tough talking about Russia was just another smokescreen to try and hide Trumps obvious bias before he goes full on backing Russia to the hilt against Ukraine.
Unfortunately, I am not convinced UK and European allies will side with Zelensky over Trump if he says that Ukraine must give up the invaded territories Russia is now fighting for.
It boils my p1ss just listening to the scumbags Trump/vance/etc; I can only imagine what the Ukrainians must feel towards him.
It boils my p1ss just listening to the scumbags Trump/vance/etc; I can only imagine what the Ukrainians must feel towards him.
Trump main objective is to "share" the spoils of war especially the rare earth materials. The rest is not really important to him.
I think the land swap deal is a genius move from Trump, Alaska ceded back to Russia in exchange for the Ukrainian occupied territories. Ankara to be renamed Putinville.
However, Zelensky is not yielding because he knows without the war he will not have the full power,
Zelensky is not Netenyahu (sp?) He doesn't need a war to continue in office, and I don't think is willing to sacrifice his country to maintain his grip on power like Netenyahu is. I'm pretty sure he would go at the drop of a hat if that was a condition Russia gave for leaving, and I think he has said as much before.
The reason he is not yielding is that to do so will merely give Russia chance to regroup and rearm before they have another go, he is going to need some pretty strong assurances against that happening before he will concede anything, and rightly so.
Yeh nothings changed... If Ukraine give up land now, Russia will be back for more in a couple of years once they've solidified thier new border.
That's unthinkable for Ukraine and the rest of Europe..
Putin, like trump is a proven liar and criminal.
If Ukraine give up land now, Russia will be back for more in a couple of years once they've solidified thier new border.
It's even worse than that, the land Putin will demand in the East is the same land Ukraine has spent the last 3 years furiously reinforcing, if Russia manages to obtain it in any peace deal they will be able to leapfrog the border straight past all these reinforced bunkers and trench networks and and straight into Ukraine's unfortified interior.
There's no way that the peace based along these borders lasts long enough to let Ukraine fortify the new border, give it a few months and Putin will make up some excuse and the tanks will start rolling again only now Ukraine will be at a huge strategic disadvantage even compared to how they are now.
The Ukrainians know this of course and if Zelensky agrees to anything along these lines he's toast,. the public will not wear it.
Zelensky is not Netenyahu (sp?) He doesn't need a war to continue in office, ...
Looks rather similar to me.
Alaska? I doubt there will be an exchange of land, and also Alaska is not important because the place does not contain rare earth.
The negotiation/discussion will only be on Russian's terms, and I doubt Russia will not cede the already captured territories.
The best scenario for Ukraine is the war stops by meeting the three conditions as mentioned by me above.
I cannot see Russia accepting anything less.
Alaska? I doubt there will be an exchange of land, and also Alaska is not important because the place does not contain rare earth.
It was a joke, to a make a point. Still, while you’re here…
Fact Sheet: Alaska Strategic Minerals/Rare Earth Elements
US/NATO is thinking of dividing the "spoils" of war by assuming the WWII scenario.
The Very best outcome of the discussion for US/NATO and Ukraine is Russia only keeps the small area where they captured. If this is the case then Russia has actually conceded or failed in the entire operation. Which in a way is a humiliation for Russia because they have sacrificed so many of their forces for little gain.
My view is that Russia will only agree on the followings:
1. Ukraine will be divided West and East Ukraine i.e. becoming two countries with the natural dividing line from the river that split the country into two. (note: East Ukraine is the "real" Ukraine so they can keep that)
2. Ukraine to be totally disarmed with no international peace keeping force allows.
3. Ukraine is prohibited from joining NATO.
Anything less means Russia has failed and this is unacceptable for Russia.
However, Zelensky is not yielding because he knows without the war he will not have the full power, and will probably need to seek asylum in USA or some NATO States. Therefore, Zelensky will never agree. Even with pressure from US/NATO Zelensky will not yield for his own safety reason. Currently he is protected in war but if the war stops, his protection will disappear, and his personal safety will come into question.
Hence, the war will continue in a slow grinding manner for many years. My view is that it is a 10 year war. If the war reaches the 10 year line, most of Ukrainian young people (men and some women) would have disappeared and they will lack workforce to rebuild the country.
Unlike previous wars, the current war is showcasing plenty of technological related weapons that can be highly specific in only targeting those in the battle. The drone warfare is so difficult to deal with that I see no immediate solution to counter such weapon at all. The conventional weapons are almost useless against FPV drones and even the armoured vehicles are being turned into scrap metals.
I find it really difficult to get my head around your logic in this particular thread chewkw, I've mentioned it before I'm sure. I've honestly tried over the years if only to try to stress test my own inherent biases which we all harbour.
Your post could be dissected and specific points addressed but it's all been done countless times.
What really stuck me about this post though is your absolute focus on Zelensky as being the power hungry dictator willing to kill tens of thousands for his own ends. Not once did you even mention Putin.
Zelensky never insisted this war and to suggest he is prolonging it for personal gain or personal safety is just genuinely and completely incredible to me. I've tried to look at the war through your eyes but I just can't fathom the methodology.
Does Putin view the EU and NATO as a threat? No doubt he does, simply because he views anyone or anything he doesn't control as a threat. He is a high functioning lunatic.
I am utterly convinced that history will be kind to Zelensky. Against all expectations he was the right person, in the right place, at the right time. A comedic TV actor that will be remembered as one of the worlds great war time leaders. Not as the aggressor but as the bulwark holding a nation together against an enemy so malignant it risks infecting the entire world. How many times has Russia threatened/implied the use of nukes now and against how many countries? I've lost count on both scores.
I'm just as convinced of Putin's legacy. He'll me remembered as a mafia Don that happened to rule a country rather than a drug empire. A man so consumed by Russia's past that he's prepared to sacrifice an entire Russian generation to try to rebuild it's imagined past glory.