chewkw
more likely he and the deep state
It's so frustrating chew as you make valid points sometimes but then utterly ruin it with statements like the above.
RustyNissanPrairie
Full Member
It would be a shame if Yantar had a loss of floatation type event.
Yes, utterly tragic.
Let's hope they've banned cigarettes onboard!
deep state
There was a Judge Ronald MacDonald who has a law degree from Harvard, is Canadian and served on the ECHR as Lichtenstein's nomination.
After the Atomic Wars he had a feud with Judge Dredd, now that's deep state!
The second paragraph might not be true though 😉
Considering everyone blatantly knows what that russian ship is designed for I can't understand why it doesn't have a permanent escort shadowing it everywhere it goes in international waters. Just close enough to make the point that if a cable was to suddenly get cut it would be completely crystal clear who did it. And if they still did it, under the watchful eyes of an escort recording their every move from short range rather than a satellite then I'd say its fair game to be impounded.
As for the other stuff up there, all I'll add is odd.
Supposedly it has been surveying / spying / marking all sorts for years in the Baltic and north Norway coastline, as well as transatlantic cables. There is a genuine vulnerability to Russia deciding to mess with all the undersea infrastructure from comms, oil, gas and power…
This is interesting , I remember reading in the 80s I think that Russian lorries had driven all over Europe photographing and filming everything - bridges, interchanges, flyovers and railways. They just looked like regular lorries. All good data for an advancing red army, should it ever arise, or for terrorist type activity.
Different focus now on communication cables but the principle is the same. There know where everything is and what it looks like
This is interesting , I remember reading in the 80s I think that Russian lorries had driven all over Europe photographing and filming everything – bridges, interchanges, flyovers and railways. They just looked like regular lorries. All good data for an advancing red army, should it ever arise, or for terrorist type activity.
As a young squaddie in Germany in the 1980s, we were all issued with, and had to carry at all times a SOXMIS card. SOXMIS was the Soviet military mission. These were Russians who were allowed to drive around in West Germany, with distinctive plates on their vehicles. They were supposedly there as part of reassurance measures to detect a significant troop build up or possible NATO moves towards crossing the inner German border. There were however quite strict rules about where they could go, and what they could do, which they of course broke all the time. Trying to break into barracks, recruiting locally employed civilians as humint sources etc. Hence the cards, if we spotted them, there was an RMP/Int Corps 'hotline' number to ring. There was also a BRIXMIS operating on the other side of the IGB. I have a mate who served in it, and he has some absolutely epic tales to tell of run-ins with the Stasi and the shenanigans they got up to!
On the undersea cables stuff - it's the obvious way they are carrying out these surveillance operations/sabotage prep, as a kind of visible warning. A bit like their nuclear deterrence shouting/threatening style; it's not the substance of what they are saying that is the key message, but the manner they are doing it. It actually shows their limitations and desperation. NATO and nuclear countries just need to knowingly tap their sword to remind Russia of the nuclear deterrent and military capability on the other side. Likewise, sub-sea cables going to Russia and critical infrastructure across the whole of Russia: i'd fully expect we have them all mapped, monitored, photographed, the full shebang. Not to mention the role of US in targeting on behalf of Ukraine (as a condition of some weapons delivery). Russia know this, and the NATO allies don't need to show this with a dodgy pirate ship that is 100% being monitored and shadowed - it's also testing responses much like airspace incursions and the like.
Following the coverage of the ATACMS strikes is interesting, as it places the onus of escalation on the US/West, whereas Russia has been using exactly those kind of weapons in big numbers, from day 1 in 2022. It's taken 1000 days for a vaguely like-for-like response.
BBC breaking suggesting Atacms has been used.
And Russia are claiming to have shot down five of the six fired, with the sixth one partially damaged. I thought they were meant to be very difficult to intercept?
I thought they were meant to be very difficult to intercept?
I thought people would be a bit more sceptical about claimed Russian (and to be fair, Ukrainian) air defence successes? When ATACMs was first deployed, the Russians claimed to have destroyed about three times the number of launchers that were actually delivered to Ukraine, within a few days of first use. Ukraine will have fired loads of lower tech weapons, including indigenously developed UAVs, as well as ATACMS, to decoy and overwhelm Russian AD. I don't doubt the Russians have brought down some incoming stuff, but I'm very sceptical of a claim that they have hit every single ATACMS missile launched.
^^ An analyst was on TV earlier. He said Russia would have been lucky to even shoot one down due to their speed and relatively small size.
So yep, Russia is fibbing.
Hell, if they were shot down this easily why are Russia issuing all the threats as per usual?
I thought people would be a bit more sceptical about claimed Russian (and to be fair, Ukrainian) air defence successes?
Well, yes. I didn't *believe* what was said, but surely there would have been significant damage if six Attack 'ems had been fired. So, were they Attack 'ems? Did they actually fire six?
So, were they Attack ’ems? Did they actually fire six?
I don't think we know. The figure of 6 comes from Russia. I'm not aware (I may be wrong) that Ukraine has released any details of what has been fired. I suspect the various OSINT sites will be pouring all over satellite imagery to look for damage, so maybe more credible info will come out over the next few days.
I remember reading in the 80s I think that Russian lorries had driven all over Europe photographing and filming everything
Google have photographed my house about 5 times since 2014. Nowadays you can just google it - unless some country has specifically prevented it.
Seems a second cable has been cut in the Baltic, and *rumor* that a Chinese flagged civilian ship stopped and drifted over the cut cable spot for a couple of hours....
Considering everyone blatantly knows what that russian ship is designed for I can’t understand why it doesn’t have a permanent escort shadowing
My BIL captains a T45 destroyer, before his last deployment (shooting down Houthi drones) he spent his time shadowing Russian spy ships as they mapped out our undersea cables, he had pictures of their silhouettes on his cabin wall as they modify them slightly to make them harder to ID, they are usually registered as fishing or science vessles.
We only have 6 T45s and at least 1 is undergoing refit atm and they dont have the best reliability record, at least 1 is in the gulf and we only have 2 or 3 others operational.
Ive no idea what the subs are up to!
matt_outandabout
Full Member
Seems a second cable has been cut in the Baltic, and *rumor* that a Chinese flagged civilian ship
I believe an event like that happened in '23. Could it be sometime online has their wires crossed?
Or it has happened again of course!
I wonder what the response from N Korea will be if a lot of their troops start dying from ATACMs or Storm Shadow strikes, I imagine they are disposable to Kim but they surely wouldnt be happy with it.
So far it seems ATACMs have been used on ammunition dumps in Russia
I imagine they will be looking airfields next, but often the glide bombs are launched from airfields outside their range.
This feels like too little too late
kimbers
Full Member
Considering everyone blatantly knows what that russian ship is designed for I can’t understand why it doesn’t have a permanent escort shadowing
My BIL captains a T45 destroyer
I should imagine a lot of the Nordic/Baltic states are also paying very close attention too, so hopefully there is fairly constant monitoring. That said, as these cut cables show, it's probably impossible to keep an eye on them 24/7.
As someone said though, this is a sign of weakness from Russia as well as a bit of intel gathering for a scenario where there was direct conflict with NATO in the future.
A nuclear power going around cutting cables as it dare not actually get into direct conflict with NATO. Doesn't say much about past world power.
Amusing to see Putin changing the constitution to lower the bar for when Russia can use nukes. Why amusing? Does anybody really think that Putin wouldn't launch a nuke if he wanted to because it's not in the constitution?! Lol
It's all cosplay for the likes of the MAGA crowd that loves Putin but also believes he wants to kill them.
Pretty odd, eh.
kimbers - I can't imagine Kim gives a damn about the troops. They were just a transaction of meat, sadly and grimly.
Ive no idea what the subs are up to!
I'm sure the right people know. As should be the way, obviously my input was merely conjecture. But it wouldn't suprise me if it's more of a converted effort in terms of resources; sub-surface, surface and aviation fleets.
Did anyone see the BBC program on the highly trained beluga whale that turned up in Norway a few years ago ?
One of the suggestions was that it had been trained to search for undersea infrastructure. Certainly worth watching
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m002504p/secrets-of-the-spy-whale
Have a look at how detailed the Soviet mappers were able to map the cities and industrial areas of the UK...
https://redatlasbook.com/cityplansuk
Doesn’t say much about past world power.
This. I joined the Army in 1996 and many were talking about all of this in similar terms back then, same with 'warfare is changing' and 'this/that is obsolete'.
Here we are in 2024 and it's blokes in fighting positions trying to kill each other with tech that is being evolved on the hoof, which will then prompt a counter which may or may not allow one side to maintain an advantage.
This conflict is an interesting revisit of 1980's tactics with drones as the new kid on the block.
The big threat in the 80's was CBRN, arty and armour all delivered through manoeuvre warfare and trench fighting. There was a smattering of aviation threat and frankly suicidal masses airborne drops.
Currently: delete CBRN & Para drops, add UAS & (more precise) precision fires.
Joint Declaration by the Foreign Ministers of Germany, France, Poland (the Weimar Triangle), Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom in Warsaw, 19 November
We consider this also a unique opportunity to renew the foundations of our transatlantic relations with the United States of America by strengthening NATO and ensuring fair burden sharing within the Alliance. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/joint-declaration-by-the-foreign-ministers-of-germany-france-poland-italy-spain-and-the-united-kingdom-in-warsaw-19-november
There was also a BRIXMIS operating on the other side of the IGB.
Some bloody good books on this subject and a few podcasts. One of the LE's in my first unit had done this. I didn't fully grasp the significance of that role as an 18yo ****.
Intelligence is still gathered like that to a degree today. The MK1 eyeball is a powerful intelligence gathering tool that tech fanboys forget about sometimes.
My BIL captains a T45 destroyer
As an aside, about 12 years ago I was crew on a 3 Island Peaks race yacht. We were roughly off the Mull of Kintyre when a PAN PAN PAN came over the radio - another yacht in the race had lost its rudder and was drifting out of control.
There was a back and forth radio conversation with Clyde Coastguard about the emergency and arranging help. Then a chap came on very clear and precise saying "Hello Clyde, this is Dragon. We can be with the casualty within 10 minutes and will assist" This was excellent news for all concerned as the Mull is not somewhere to be drifting out of control with a bunch of runners on board.
Anyway, after the initial back and forth between Coastguard and Dragon, the coastguard watch finally asked the question that everyone listening in was dying to be asked.
"Hello again Dragon. Please can you confirm what size of vessel you are, thank you"
There was a moment of utter silence across the airwaves as everyone waited with baited breath for the killer line.
"Type 45 Destroyer madam"
Silence ensued from the Coastguard for several seconds, during which I swear you could hear cheering and laughter from every boat for miles around. It seemed like the only person who didn't know that HMS Dragon was in the area on working up exercises was the Coastguard
On Welshfarmer’s post up there about Soviet Cold War maps, the backstory is at https://www.wired.com/2015/07/secret-cold-war-maps/. I have the Huddersfield map and it’s fascinating.
They're great, unsurprisingly they're very familiar to the early maps we had in Afghanistan. NATO geo just reproduced them until the data sets built up over the years.
^ Awkward but I'm guessing there might be an element of plausible deniability in play here?
Yup sorry boss our boat accident dropped anchor and well you know the rest.
Soz won't do it again. Although it's the second time apparently.
being reported on several news channels now suspecting Chinese freighter Yi Peng 3 of damaging cables.
I honestly thought China was sitting back and letting Russia get on with it, whilst profiting vastly - I didn't think there was any real danger of them getting involved directly.
Chop cables, break aliexpress and tiktok - what were they thinking?
I'd missed the true significance of the long range ATACMS/Storm Shadows until today. Aside from reaching further into Russian territory, they effectively render their tactical nuclear weapons redundant apparently, because the potential launch sites are all within range of these missiles, and NATO intelligence know where they all are and monitor them. So it's an interesting chess move, albeit one that's come too late. This is probably why Putin is so enraged by it, as it limits his strategic options.
EDIT - Russian tactical nukes have ~400mile range, so to hit anything of value in Ukraine they would have to be within range of new missiles.
There was also a BRIXMIS operating on the other side of the IGB.
One of my flying instructors in the 80s had done that. He had the misfortune to be picked up by the Soviets as one of their people had been caught doing something wrong in the west and they wanted an exchange. He spent an unpleasant day in the back of a Soviet truck with guards pointing loaded guns at him until he was exchanged.
He'd also done a couple of attachments at GCHQ, interesting guy but a bit weird, didn't allow TVs at home for instance.
I honestly thought China was sitting back and letting Russia get on with it, whilst profiting vastly – I didn’t think there was any real danger of them getting involved directly.
China doesn't want anything to disturb its trade and economy, hence telling Russia publicly on a few occasions not to consider nukes.
China also wants to promote the multi-polar world, but can't do that alone. It's Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) has existed since 2015 to make the yuan more usable as an international currency, but can't compete with SWIFT and the US dollar
Russia is most use to China as a strong (but not too strong) partner so that the established "rules-based" world order can be overcome. Russia losing this war would threaten that dynamic
On 2 June 2022 President Biden published an op-ed in the New York Times titled ‘How the US is willing to help Ukraine’ in which he declared that Russia’s action in Ukraine ‘could mark the end of the rules-based international order and open the door to aggression elsewhere, with catastrophic consequences the world over’. There is no mention of international law.
Later, in a press conference at the conclusion of the June 2022 NATO Summit Meeting in Madrid, he warned both Russia and China that the democracies of the world would ‘defend the rules-based order’ (RBO).
John Dugard, Leiden Journal of International Law / Volume 36 / Issue 2 / June 2023 pp. 223 - 232
I agree with all of that, so why are they buggering about with sabotage - thats direct action that is supporting Russia. Surely sitting back and largely keeping quiet whilst supplying Russia what it needs at a huge cost whilst maintaining relations with the west is what suits them best.
Sniping cables is obviously disruptive, but ultimately what does it prove,. it'll be fixed in a week or so - but they've caused a potential further diplomatic spat
Anyone else alarmed by the news reports today of intelligence of a potential significant air attack on Kyiv?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c20726y20kvt
Did the world end yet? Does anyone really take Putins threats seriously anymore?
wake up Biden, stop self deterring yourself you ***** and Europe too !
I wonder what would happen if Russian missiles hit a western Embassy and killed staff ? But not the US (they would retaliate).
It'd be squeaky bum time for a lot of Russian leaders
Could an ATACMS be put in a truck, driven thru a bit of Russia and then target the Kremlin?
A not so insignificant number.
The number of Ukrainian recruits to have been trained under Operation Interflex has reached 50,000, the Defence Secretary has announced.
Not far to go until they will have trained more Ukrainians than there are UK soldiers....it's an impressive number and a significant contribution beyond £s and arms.
Did the world end yet? Does anyone really take Putins threats seriously anymore?
All threats should be taken seriously. Complacency is not the ideal strategy.
But I don't think the threat is that the ICBM's are going to come flying over, I think the threat would be to British and American interests elsewhere on the globe.
Countries in the middle east could receive high end weapons systems, surface to air against drones or aircraft. anti tank systems, more satellite surveillance intel given to them.
As an aside, about 12 years ago I was crew on a 3 Island Peaks race yacht
Out of interest, which yacht were you on ? Did it on a mates boat - 'Flying Squad'
I’m waiting for London to go up in a flash. Putin said he’ll use us as a warning / experiment and now Storm Shadows are in there’s no going back.
he’s despot enough to be pushed to far, and as much as I realise we need to punch the bully on the nose, I am worried about an impending war.
A warning/experiment that would likely see Moscow flattened? I doubt it
Sniping cables is obviously disruptive, but ultimately what does it prove,. it’ll be fixed in a week or so – but they’ve caused a potential further diplomatic spat
That's the thing, if enough are damaged then they won't be repaired quickly. Some damage can take months and $$$mn to repair, especially if the necessary permits to work are complicated.
There are 77 cable ships in the world, according to data supplied by SubTel Forum, but most are focused on the more profitable work of laying new systems. Only 22 are designated for repair, and it’s an aging and eclectic fleet. https://www.theverge.com/c/24070570/internet-cables-undersea-deep-repair-ships
There isn't a way to hold anyone accountable if damage happens in international waters, so diplomatic spat is about it. Diplomatic spats are normal in this world and another one isn't going to matter
China is a major player in the laying and maintenance of subsea cables, so any repairs contracted to HMN Technologies, formerly known as Huawei Marine Networks, gives them additional opportunities if western fears for Huawei and data security are accurate
There's a report from August here... https://www.csis.org/analysis/safeguarding-subsea-cables-protecting-cyber-infrastructure-amid-great-power-competition
12 Storm Shadows used on a military headquarters in Kursk.
London next right?
he’s despot enough to be pushed to far, and as much as I realise we need to punch the bully on the nose, I am worried about an impending war.
Ukraine is calling his bluff.
For starters, if he launches some nukes, and they just fizzle out because they have been scrimping on maintenance, then that's the end of Russia's nuclear threat forever.
I've been following this thread since the start and I'm dismayed by how long it has gone on for and the loss of life as a result. A question for everyone, is Russia toothless? I get the distinct impression that if their bluff were to be called they'd fold like a cheap tent. A huge gamble but how long could this drag on for otherwise.
funkmasterp
Full Member
I’ve been following this thread since the start and I’m dismayed by how long it has gone on for and the loss of life as a result. A question for everyone, is Russia toothless? I get the distinct impression that if their bluff were to be called they’d fold like a cheap tent. A huge gamble but how long could this drag on for otherwise.
It's a mafia family with nukes and it's going to have one hell of an economic hangover after the war is over. Ironically, it might be that, that does for Putin.
Putin only has to fold out for a matter of weeks now till trump is inaugurated.
This is one of the many (!) reasons why we won't be seeing nukes flying towards us. One trumps in office, putin will likely be given (most of) the concessions he wants.
Mind you, Putin will have to contend with a very angry, technologically innovative country on his border... I suspect Ukraine may well give Russia a taste of it's own hybrid warfare for decades to come. Things going bang (including top political and military leaders) with just enough plausible deniability to stay under the radar.
I should imagine Ukraine will be looking into developing it's own nukes too and who can blame them?
and they just fizzle out because they have been scrimping on maintenance, then that’s the end of Russia’s nuclear threat forever.
and if they don’t? Will we all shit ourselves and wonder what to do or do we fire back and just call it a day?
I can see a tactical nuke being used in the Donbas as a scare factor and it probably escalates from thier.
it annoys me that I didn’t vote for Nuclear annialation, yet the little UK always has to follow the US. We are a tiny little power, why do we always choose to be involved in these things, why not someone else take the US partnership ahead, why us?
I doubt it, Putin is just the same as Trump, all mouth and no trousers.
Europe has been very carefull so far, and that is a massive mistake...
I think it's well overdue we start hitting the Russians with x10 more... ++++ them.
For starters, if he launches some nukes, and they just fizzle out because they have been scrimping on maintenance, then that’s the end of Russia’s nuclear threat forever.
All of them? They have such numbers that it would be disastrous even with a very high failure rate.
I should imagine Ukraine will be looking into developing it’s own nukes too and who can blame them?
They've said NATO or nukes, and that they'd prefer NATO.
We are a tiny little power, why do we always choose to be involved in these things, why not someone else take the US partnership ahead, why us?
Because someone has to, and it's looking likely it won't be Trump. If the US is going to abandon Ukraine then other countries who can do so have a moral obligation to get involved.
After the three big powers the UK remains one of the strongest militaries in the world, albeit nowhere near where we were a hundred years ago. Who is more powerful/better able to stand up to Russia? India won't. It's us, the French and maybe the Germans. Poland and the Baltics are doing more than almost anyone proportionally to the size of their economies but they are still small players.
Kryton, I type the following because I truly believe it to be the case. You are a decent guy and i know current events are playing on your mind a lot. I hope my and other posters comments reassure you as they are, mostly, in alignment.
and if they don’t? Will we all shit ourselves and wonder what to do or do we fire back and just call it a day?
No way will any Western country assume that russian nukes won't work. It would be an incredibly dangerous assumption. It only takes one to work and the whole world we know will have changed in an instant and to be clear I bet many more than one will work just fine. So allowing the use of ATCMS/ Storm Shadows will have had some of the best strategic minds on the planet involved in it's planning.
I can see a tactical nuke being used in the Donbas as a scare factor and it probably escalates from thier.
Storm shadow has already been used on Russian soil.
They were used in 2023 in Crimea, a land that Putin has officially designated as Russian soil. Putin's response? He carried on murdering civilians in Ukraine, just as he had before the storm shadows hit.
No nukes are going to fly in this conflict, Putin has no wish to die, remember his hilariously socially distanced table during Covid?
Putin got all his Christmas presents early with Trumps win. No way is he doing to consign Russia to bring an irradiated wasteland with a compliant Trump only weeks away from power.
Longer term its China that keeps me awake at night but I'll worry about that if and when the time comes. Lol
It’s a mafia family with nukes and it’s going to have one hell of an economic hangover after the war is over. Ironically, it might be that, that does for Putin.
It's a fat, out of shape, drug dealer with a roided up XL Bully.
Poland and the Baltics are doing more than almost anyone proportionally to the size of their economies but they are still small players.
They are a bit closer to the ever expanding Russian border so I'm not supprised they are getting a bit twitchy.
The EU and the UK needs to step up and hit Russia hard, and fast, with weapons and with sanctions.
It's lovely that Biden has authorised some new missiles, but we all know that Trump will put a stop to that, just as soon as he's pardoned himself for the rape and fraud, as even dictators have priorities.
bikesandboots
They’ve said NATO or nukes, and that they’d prefer NATO.
Very true but if Trump effectively forces Ukraine to give up the aspiration of ever joining NATO, which lets face it, is more then likely, I can imagine them seeking other means to keep a murderous neighbour at bay.
No way will any Western country assume that russian nukes won’t work.
This. The way this threat will be assessed is the same way at an operational task/mission level we would assess an enemy units capability; if they have a piece of kit/capability we assume it is functional, effective and at what likely point/threshold would they employ it? This would shape our initial plan, actions-on its use (most likely both) and what we could do to mitigate the risk or respond to it.
I can't go into chapter and verse because it would derail the thread, but with what I know from my service and as succinct as possible, I can say with utter certainty that those who work in that space will be taking it very ****ing seriously indeed and will not be playing fast and loose with anyone's lives, regardless of what politicians may be saying or doing.
Regardless of how some posters on STW like to denigrate the military/security services it is chock full of very committed and dedicated professionals who give many ****s about protecting this nation and that of its allies and will not want to contribute to an escalation.
Ukraine should join the EU...
So should the UK, for that matter.
I bet countries will be thinking carefully about using foreign technology in their weapons in future:
The missile relies on classified American-owned cartographic data, using Terrain Contour Matching or TERCOM, to guide the missile to the target. This gives the American government veto of any sales to foreign countries under ITAR. In 2018 the French government tried to bypass this by creating a “ITAR-free” version of the missile for sale to Egypt that didn’t use TERCOM. The missiles would have relied solely on GPS and inertial navigation systems to get to the target. Making the missile more vulnerable to Electronic Warfare. An issue in Ukraine where Russian jams GPS signals, so American approval is necessary for the missiles to operate to peak performance.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_Shadow
It's a good job I'm not in charge, I'd have nuked St.Petersurg and Moscow by now.
mattyfez
Full Member
It’s a good job I’m not in charge, I’d have nuked St.Petersurg and Moscow by now.
The start of the Grand Tour! 😉
(If you know, you know.)
I'd also like to know what the chuff Sweden and Finland are doing, given that Stockholm and Helsinki are in close proximity.
Biden parting gift to the incoming President is to ignite the fire of WWIII.
Joking aside, I think we should encourage Poland and Lituania to annexe Kallingrad.
Rather than to encourage the Polish and Lithuanian to fight in Ukraine, the British government should send the British forces to fight the war instead.
It’s a good job I’m not in charge, I’d have nuked St.Petersurg and Moscow by now.
You do know those are not Middle East cities, don't you?
I’d also like to know what the chuff Sweden and Finland are doing, given that Stockholm and Helsinki are in close proximity.
Coz they know Russia has no interest in them whatsoever. In return, Russian knows it is a waste of time even to engage them, and there really is Nothing to gain other than pain in the backside.
For starters, if he launches some nukes, and they just fizzle out because they have been scrimping on maintenance, then that’s the end of Russia’s nuclear threat forever.
The whole rationale of deterrence is not being entirely sure what the opposition will do. We don't know what condition Russia's missiles and warheads are in, there may be a fairly high failure rate, but the assumption has to be that a considerable number will work. However, for Russia, attempting to use nuclear weapons destroys their deterrent effect. If they work, NATO will annihilate Russia in a counter-strike, Putin knows that, threats against NATO are a bluff to get attention. The other concern for Russia is that if they try to launch a limited strike (for example against Ukraine rather than NATO) and the missiles and warheads malfunction, then their deterrent value is diminished.
The key thing with nuclear weapons is they are much more useful if you don't use them than if you do. The Russians know this, that's why they've never used them.
I was going to post that the whole point of nuclear weapons is not to use them, but thols2 put it way better!
Coz they know Russia has no interest in them whatsoever. In return, Russian knows it is a waste of time even to engage them, and there really is Nothing to gain other than pain in the backside.
Finland is a very sore point for Russia. The Finns have history of beating Russia and the Russians are unhappy at losing a bit of their Empire. It's the same resentment often displayed by the English towards Ireland, India, etc etc
resentment often displayed by the English towards Ireland, India, etc etc
I was with you about Russo-Finnish history, but I'm struggling with that tbh. Historically, perhaps, but these days? "Often"? "The English" generally, or a specific group? No one I know harbours those feeling towards Ireland or India, most people barely give those places any thought whatsoever unless they have family connections or are visiting on holiday. The idea that most of the "English" are still bitter would be colonialists seems to be a bit daft to me. Maybe a handful, snoozing in the house of lords, but not the rest of us!
chewkw
Free Member
Biden parting gift to the incoming President is to ignite the fire of WWIII.
Or... To give Ukraine a better hand to play when trump forces them to concede territory... which will lead to a simmering resentment in Ukraine for generations to come, totally understandable too. We'll end up with another Korean DMZ always on the point of boiling over.
Well done Trump.
Coz they (Sweden, Finland) know Russia has no interest in them whatsoever. In return, Russian knows it is a waste of time even to engage them, and there really is Nothing to gain other than pain in the backside.
Best we let them know that they don't need to be in NATO then or that the cyber attacks and under sea cable cutting is pure coincidence. 😉
I can see a tactical nuke being used in the Donbas as a scare factor and it probably escalates from thier.
A nuke is a nuke and if Russia goes down that path there really is no return from being a nuclear pariah state like N.Korea and to a lesser extent Iran. International sanctions will be immense and trade non-existent, including the legal sale of cheap O&G. China knows this and has warned President Putin off publicly, but the reality is that he knows it too.
The current lifting of restrictions on ATACMS, SCALP-EG, Storm Shadow and the supply of anti-personnel mines are not strategic game-changers. We don't know the details of restrictions on their use, but they're not going to be "do what you like". Ukraine will have to dot every legal i and cross the Ts within those restrictions as well.
Their use will promote morale and some excitement in Ukraine, a bit like ^^ 🙂 . ATACMS have been telegraphed for months and although there are some 245 potential targets within 300km, most Russian aircraft have been moved out of reach
This is similar to pronouncements about Sweden and Finland joining NATO, HiMARS, F16, Abrams, Challenger and Leopard tanks, DPICMs, etc. It's not hugely different to Ukraine already having the ability to strike targets inside Russia in self-defence with US MLRS (HiMARS, etc.), they just reach a bit further but there are fewer of them.
Russia is beating their reflexive control drum, but it's been heard before
Biden parting gift to the incoming President is to ignite the fire of WWIII.
See my post above