If Russia can't train & equip the army it has no w, no way it could mobilise the entire country
Even if they could do it, the costs would be staggering, h you w long did it take Britain to pay off its war debt?
But ultimately if he has to mobilise, he's admitting his 'special operation'has failed and I can't see him doing that.
Even if they could do it, the costs would be staggering, h you w long did it take Britain to pay off its war debt?
Quite, and she had allies with money.
Even if they could do it, the costs would be staggering,
They'd be staggering even if he hadn't triggered the imposition of a historically harsh sanctions regime on his economy and then, by playing his last trump card (oil and gas supplies to Europe) basically forced a huge chunk of the global West to re-think its long-term dependence on buying fossil fuels from authoritarian a**eholes.
Even if the war ends tomorrow these are going to have massive long term implications, all of them bad for Russia.
Worth noting that, whilst many derided them as ineffective initially, the sanctions have already had a massive effect on this war and Russia's ability to fight it. Russia just can't replace even a fraction of what it's losing.
They're only going to bite harder as time goes on, Sanctions work, the lesson seems to be that they just have to be harsh as hell and even then they take time to really have an effect.
Obviously pinch of salt and could just be a handful of soldiers, but it seems news of Kharkiv is undermining russian morale
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1569236463492931584?t=aPJQSh8wnNt6pLoSWkbgIA&s=19
Ru apparently much more dig in there, but would be amazing to see Ukr advance there too
Sanctions work
In some cases yes - when a country that depends on external stuff for military gear is trying to wage a big war then yes of course. But when a despot is simply being a dick and the ordinary people depend on imported food and the cash to buy it - not so much.
I’m going to park that surrender tweet in the propaganda pot for now.
I'm guessing this guy is not alone in realizing the futility of the Russian situation. Hopefully there will be mass surrenders and desertions.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1569241576223944705
Are there any other implications that is stopping Putin mobilising his army? As in, that would allow the US and Europe to correspondingly escalate their support for Ukraine?
Russia committed 15000 troops to recent joint exercises with India, China, Belarus, etc. Normally the force would be three times greater with his biggest customers for arms.
Russia has waged this war and lost 50000 soldiers; politics and legality don't come into this, it's now about the survival of the current Russian administration.
Russia has broken numerous laws and conventions which haven't mobilised NATO and I don't see why extra forces would change that.
The only countries holding back are the richer EU countries for whatever reason, probably their economy
That was the context I was referring to Molgrips, they make waging a full-scale expansionary war almost impossible in the medium to long term.
Even the US and China can't build something as complex as a modern fighter jet without relying on a few imported components or the materials to make them.
Fair point on their unfortunate lack of effectiveness when 'El Presidente' is just being a douche to their own people.
Are there any other implications that is stopping Putin mobilising his army?
I think it's just Russian domestic political considerations - it would be a tacit admission that they are at war and it's not going well.
This seems to be doing the rounds at the minute
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1569087890466144261?s=20
The Ukrainian's aren't slowing down either, reports coming in just now suggest that they've made it to Belogorovka, that's about 60KM east of Izyum, deep inside Donetsk, the Russian front lines still haven't stabilised
I had to look up blyatskrieg!
Me too. LOL.
I seem to recall that back when the Moskva sank there was quite a lot of discussion here about how Ukraine's missiles could have got past its various defences. YouTuber Lazerpig released a video yesterday that purports to explain how that happened. I don't follow things closely enough to know how reliable Lazerpig's research tends to be but the explanation certainly seems plausible given what we've heard about the Russian military since February:
That part about the Moskva tells you everything about the RU military. Fur coat no knickers.
The Ukrainian’s aren’t slowing down either, reports coming in just now suggest that they’ve made it to Belogorovka, that’s about 60KM east of Izyum, deep inside Donetsk,
There's another belgorovka just west of Lysychansk, which sounds more likely to me.
But then again there have been increasing reports that the Russians really did pre-emptively abandon Svatovo, so who knows...
There’s another belgorovka just west of Lysychansk, which sounds more likely to me.
Same one isn't it? Between Izyum and Lyshansk.
YouTuber Lazerpig released a video yesterday that purports to explain how that happened
Interesting video!
Crazy. A year ago how many Ukrainian towns could you name, let alone point to on a map. Kyiv, Odessa... Err. That's me done!
I'm like you, I don't know how reliable Lazerpig is either, but all the conclusions stem from that one report, so it all hinges on whether that report is true or not I guess. I have to be honest, I find it hard to believe that the Moskba could be in such poor condition, but the state of the rest of the euipment that Russia is using does indicate it might have been!
There’s another belgorovka just west of Lysychansk, which sounds more likely to me
This map is really useful:
https://deepstatemap.live/en#5.5/49.200/35.524
Lazier pig is a Fella, NAFO logo in the background
.
This map is really useful:
It also gives you an idea of the scale of the recent Ukraine advances. It's actually jaw dropping
It's been a while since anyone on this thread has been talking about how Putin's 4D chess grand master skills are making a mockery of Ukraine and NATO
There’s another belgorovka just west of Lysychansk, which sounds more likely to me.
Same one isn’t it? Between Izyum and Lyshansk.
They're both in between Izium and Lysychansk! But one of them is about 12km from Lysychansk and the other is about 40km. If it's the former, that suggests Lyman is surrounded, which I guess is possible but I don't we've heard that yet. The latter is very close to the established frontline of the last couple of months.
With the bad guys on the run in the north, where are they running to back over the boarder or down south?
It’s been a while since anyone on this thread has been talking about how Putin’s 4D chess grand master skills are making a mockery of Ukraine and NATO
A few posters come to mind, who think Ukraine should have capitulated and accepted being swallowed up by Russia from day one. Or that Russia is entitled to it's 'sphere of influence' in surrounding sovereign nations. Often the same ones who were adamant beforehand that Russia would never invade and it was all a bluff.
Not heard from them in a while.....
^ Yes. I went back to the start of this thread a few days ago & there are some posters who deserve ridicule for the stuff they were coming up with. For some reason they have been quite quiet of late.
Lazer pig is a Fella, NAFO logo in the background
Lazer Pig is brilliant, the very finest drunk gay historian/military analyst/pig out there, his rant about British tanks is one for the ages.
Despite the bluster and shambolic online persona, his stuff seems to be fairly well researched, it's more whether or not you get on with his *ahem* 'unique' style of delivery.
I went back to the start of this thread…
It’ll be interesting hearing if positions have moved on at all…
https://twitter.com/spittingcat/status/1568580921992912896?s=21
What Ukraine does next week be interesting
DNPR forces seem better skilled & motivated that the Russian army of conscripts in general, but if Ukr can push on in the north through Luhansk that could cause problems for DNPR
In the south, through Kherson seems a tough fight to or Ukrainians, hopefully Russian morale broken
The size of the area won back by Ukraine in just a few days is amazing
The size of the area won back by Ukraine in just a few days is amazing
Could be argued it's low hanging fruit though. I fear that areas retreated from may just get flattened and forces focused elsewhere. I'd like to be more optimistic about it, but find it very hard to think that way at this stage.
Often the same ones who were adamant beforehand that Russia would never invade and it was all a bluff.
To be fair that was the message from Ukraine itself for a while. The Ukrainian government were getting a bit frustrated about the western politicians and media suddenly taking Putin's threats to invade at face value and talking up a conflict when from a Ukrainian perspective the sabre rattling wasn't any different to the threats Ukraine has been facing year in year out.
No way can we and Europe allow the current gas issue to continue for more than 5 more months before we see a change of heart ...
What Ukraine does next week be interesting
DNPR forces seem better skilled & motivated that the Russian army of conscripts in general, but if Ukr can push on in the north through Luhansk that could cause problems for DNPR
In the south, through Kherson seems a tough fight to or Ukrainians, hopefully Russian morale broken
Yeah I'm interested to see. Taking the (north half of) LPR would seem to make sense, it would follow the current momentum, and would also potentially reclaim a lot of land. But I've seen people (like Mike whatsit on Twitter, ThreshedThought) suggesting that the best move, if possible, would be to knock out the Kerch bridge and head south from Zaporzhizha (sp?!) to the coast. That way they could cut off the logistics to the Kherson front altogether. On the north side of the Dnipro they've been wearing down the Ru forces for a while, so perhaps it's smarter to keep doing that for now, than risk a full on offensive? Some people suggest the Russians are now looking pretty wobbly in that area.
No way can we and Europe allow the current gas issue to continue for more than 5 more months before we see a change of heart …
Ooo… dubious conspiracy theory posting new member also bigging up letting Putin have his way… quelle surprise.
"How do we stop the war" -
It's an interesting use of the word 'we', isn't it, considering that there are no Ukrainians on the panel. I wonder what they'll decide.
How Do We End the War in #Ukraine?
One of the weirdest aspects of the Tankie left is the way they like to speak on behalf of the oppressed so long as those same oppressed don't get a word in edgeways.
They're a relative irrelevance compared the the far more numerous and vicious Pro-Putin outriders on the far right but still.... strange bunch.
To be fair that was the message from Ukraine itself for a while. The Ukrainian government were getting a bit frustrated about the western politicians and media suddenly taking Putin’s threats to invade at face value and talking up a conflict when from a Ukrainian perspective the sabre rattling wasn’t any different to the threats Ukraine has been facing year in year out.
A few months before perhaps. I was thinking more about the immediate pre-invasion period where the huge troop concentrations along the border were way beyond any exercise or sabre rattling. When we and the US has taken the unprecedented step of releasing sensitive intelligence showing exactly what the Russians were doing and saying loud and clear 'it's really going to happen'.
