Ukraine

I don’t think Finland is a NATO member, nor is Sweden. But they do have close ties to NATO, and since they were not previously Soviet satellite states, I suspect any moves by Russia against them would bring a much more military response than an invasion of Ukraine.

plus freeze Russia out of the international economic system.

And there goes Europe's gas, so i don't think they'll be freezing alone.

Every bit of whatever happens yet again engineered by America. We'd be better allying ourselves to Russia,(A European state) and telling the US to go F itself. Plus Russia has more resources than anyone else. Be a win win for us.

If we do nothing in Ukraine why would they think we would do anything there? Would the US, UK or France go to war to protect Lithuania? I doubt it.

NATO presence in Baltic States

NATO Artical 5

That's kind of my point really. What is Article 5 worth if the Budapest Memorandum isn't worth anything? Why would Russia think we would actually go to war for them if the chips were down? Unless Russia truly believes that we would Article 5 isn't going to deter them, and our current response in Ukraine isn't giving an indication that we would either.
The troops there may well be having an effect, I don't doubt that. But isn't that an argument for a significant NATO presence in Ukraine? If it works in the Baltic states why not in Ukraine? I suspectbthat the reason we don't is that we don't want to be seen as provocative, which I will admit ia a fine line to tread

 

Russia claimed that the annexation of Crimea was in fact a revolution from within the country/region. The troops had no insignia or markings on their uniforms so the Russian Army could not be blamed. That is if it was regular Russian Army troops or state backed mercenaries.
interesting website

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania all being NATO member states have the reassurance that they won't be invaded. It doesn't stop the Russian Army amassing plenty of troops at their borders at the moment though. Unfortunately Ukraine not being a member of NATO have been left to sort themselves out in the main, I would imagine there is some support from other nations happening somewhere though.

Good book written by an ex General who was NATO Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe

Every bit of whatever happens yet again engineered by America. We’d be better allying ourselves to Russia,(A European state) and telling the US to go F itself. Plus Russia has more resources than anyone else. Be a win win for us

Even from a purely economic perspective that's laughable, we export less than 5% to Russia than what we do to the US and that wouldn't change any time soon. Oh and then there's Putin, you're not buying the benevolent dictator act are you?

Even from a purely economic perspective that’s laughable, we export less than 5% to Russia

Yup, we get ours from Europe.

Now where do you think they get it from 😉

https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1483062329940054022

Some interesing perspective here

BBC News - Russia-Ukraine crisis: Why Brussels fears Europe is 'closest to war' in decades
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60030615

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-says-supplying-ukraine-with-weapons-system-defend-against-russia-2022-01-17/?utm_source=reddit.com

Anti tank and surface to air being sent over.

It's not looking good is it

It’s not looking good is it

It's really interesting to know if Putin genuinely wants to invade or if this is just a really expensive (and unpleasant) negotiating tactic

It’s really interesting to know if Putin genuinely wants to invade or if this is just a really expensive (and unpleasant) negotiating tactic

There's an old saying, "All politics is local." Russia isn't a functioning democracy but Putin has to maintain support or his regime will collapse. There seems to be a real sense of grievance in Russia about how the last 35 years unfolded - Russia used to be a superpower and has been reduced to a regional power. In my opinion, that is mostly because of Russia's own mistakes, if they'd played their cards right, they would have been the dominant country in Europe. That would have required accepting EU and international norms though and Putin rejects that. His goal seems to be to undermine liberal democracies and reestablish the old Russian empire. He has bet everything on Crimea and Ukraine so he can't be seen to back down now in the eyes of the Russian public. Negotiating time is over, he just gave a list of demands that he knew would not be accepted so he had no intention of negotiating, he just wanted a pretext for military action.

I don't think there's any doubt that he will escalate the conflict, but whether that means a full-scale invasion or just a limited invasion to "protect" Russian speaking people in the border areas is another question. I don't think there's any chance that the U.S. or NATO would send troops to fight in Ukraine, but I don't think Biden has any political choice other than to provide weapons and other support. I think Putin probably assumes that invading Ukraine will bring economic sanctions and isolation, but not a full-scale war. His major trump card is the supply of gas to Europe, I think he's hoping that he can use that to create divisions in NATO and the EU that he can exploit.

So, yes, he does want to invade. Whether that will be a full-scale invasion or something more limited is the big question.

Now it the time to speedily charter every bulk gas carrier to set up an cross-Atlantic supply of American frack-gas so we can call his bluff. I actually don't think there is the capacity to do this, and Putin knows this.

It might on this tread where I typed Putin is one page away in the history books of being a dictator he is almost on his last paragraph now. I don't think they have the cash for a prolonged war with a well trained and armed gorilla army in Ukraine.
My guess is they will go in to form a "buffer zone" from the NATO alliance and use it to cause more stress into Europe.
Russian people getting stuffed by corrupt leaders over and over again.

Putin really believes in the Greater Russia fairy story, and would like to have a legacy of restoring the empire... that's why he likes the idea of rescuing 'russians' in Ukraine from wicked western influence. But he also has the issue that at the same time as he's doing this places like Beloruss, Kazakhstan keep blowing up so he doesn't want a full blow insurrection on his southern border. How does he plan to manage that plus a war on his western flank? Would he invade via the Russian army, or would he be supporting the 'patriots' in Wagner, and how does he think that he'll deal with a long war with a guerilla element. Ukraine are a bit more motivated and competent than a lot of people seem to realise.

Plus he's got 35 years of paranoia since the USSSR fell apart. It's a messy situation.

Odd that despite all the natural resources Russia is such an abject dump, and for most people a miserable existence in a very visibly corrupt society. I wouldn't underestimate how much damage western economic measures can have

It looks pretty inevitable that Russia will invade the Donbas region (possibly on the pre-text of some event on the border or region occurring). Ukraine will obviously put up a fight but there's not much realistically they can do to prevent it so would like end up similar to the Crimea. Russia going further than the Donbas would be problematic for both sides - I'm not sure Russia would stomach the additional losses from a complete invasion of Ukraine (and the costs of the on-going man power required to effectively supress it). I wonder if Ukraine's gold reserves etc. are still in-country or if they've moved them to a safe haven.

I wouldn’t underestimate how much damage western economic measures can have

+1 I don't think it was the West's military might that won the Cold War. Russia was on its knees economically and was up to all sorts of weird and wonderful schemes to earn US$ to keep the lights on.

Russian life expectancy is already way below Western numbers, COVID is putting even greater pressure on Russian health services and there's a huge imbalance in the distribution of age within the population.

Young Russians are leaving in their droves and few are being born, so there's little way back to economic growth in the medium term.

And who'd want to migrate to work in Russia with heavy sanctions, an appalling standard of living and a rampant dictator?

Gas is finite, and Western focus on neutralising carbon is going to make it less valuable anyway in the long run.

So I think this is Putin's last hurrah. Before his health goes and before economic catastrophe catches up with him.

I think he'll cross the border, not out of any calculating master-plan, but to give him something he considers worthwhile against his name in the history books, because currently, for all his guile and strategic nous, he has nothing to show for his 20 years in power. Russia's in the same place it was under Yeltsin.

Odd that despite all the natural resources Russia is such an abject dump,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_curse

I wouldn’t underestimate how much damage western economic measures can have

Don't underestimate what people will tolerate if they think their country is facing an existential threat. North Korea is a great example of that. Russians put up with unfathomable suffering during WW2 - the Blitz was kindergarten stuff by comparison. Suffering seems to be part of their national identity.

@andrewreay - I have watched (too many) Bald and Bankrupt films - and often come away thinking how depressing much of Russia and the ex-Soviet republics are, properly challenging places to live. Developing nation levels of poverty and daily grind. His last film has a lady in Kyrgyzstan searching bins to feed her child, in a previous film he meet forest / ruined factory living tramps on the north Russian coast (etc). The suffering so many put up with - and continue to do so..

https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1483400347376885763

When a country's chaos and economic policies scare off foreign investors and send local entrepreneurs abroad to look for better opportunities, the economy becomes skewed. Factories may close and businesses may flee, but petroleum and precious metals remain for the taking. Resource extraction becomes the "default sector" that still functions after other industries have come to a halt

To me, that quote from the Resource Curse link above pretty much nails Russia. Just needs a line about the default sector falling into corrupt hands. The question is what happens when key resources like oil and gas diminish in value?

To be fair to Putin, he's done wonders for agriculture. He's turned Russia from a huge net importer of food to a significant global exporter. He's created many economic dependencies as a consequence, increasing Russia's sphere of influence, particularly in Africa.

The agricultural sanctions imposed by Europe hardly touched the sides, plus he spins the superiority of Russian produce to his home audience.

But for all this, and the ability of the Russian people to bear hardship with a zeal that most Westerners do not comprehend, he's paranoid that his rule will come crashing down and, worse, with nothing to show for it.

@matt_outandabout Yeah - saw that very same one yesterday.

It's the ability of huge chunks of the population to live in grim conditions and not complain that I think we find staggering in the West. And there lies the disconnect. We just cannot get our heads around the stoicism / acceptance that is a huge part of Russian life and cultural identity.

Even little things like astronauts who've trained with cosmonauts saying that the Russians would 'protect' their Euro / US counterparts because they didn't think they could cope with hardship. It's a completely different mindset in Russia.

But to be slightly balanced, you'd find examples (not necessarily numerous) of people going through bins in most major Western cities. And there are many US towns out in the back of beyond where once successful industries have packed up and there is nothing left - like many of the towns in B&B's films. Key difference is that those left in the US are unlikely to be maintaining a subsistence existence. And for the most part, the towns weren't supported by government activity.

Don’t underestimate what people will tolerate if they think their country is facing an existential threat. North Korea is a great example of that. Russians put up with unfathomable suffering during WW2 – the Blitz was kindergarten stuff by comparison. Suffering seems to be part of their national identity.

Absolutely.

That completely applies to Ukraine. Huge suffering during WW2, and now facing an existential crisis. I wouldn't fancy being a Russian soldier on the front line.

<div class="bbcode-quote">

Is Finland not in NATO?

</div>

No. They were once part of Russia, and during the Cold War had quite close ties to them.

Finland has an interesting 19th and 20th century history. In the 19th century it was part of Sweden, then Russia annexed it. It had some autonomy under Russian rule. In WW I it declared independence. It had a civil war in the 1930s, and a non-aggression treaty with USSR.

The Winter War followed against the USSR, then the Continuation War against the USSR with German support. When WW II ended Finland had to pay USSR large reparations.

I think it's fair to say that the Finns are fiercely independent and had to spend the second half of the 20th century keeping both West and East happy without getting too close to either.

See also Alsace and Luxemburg - it's hard being caught between two large powers (Sweden was a major power in the 19th century)

I can't believe Finland was the one to pay reparations to Russia!!

I remember reading a bit about Russia's invasion of Finland in WW2, Russia thought they would be a pushover but they put up a surprisingly stout defense

I can’t believe Finland was the one to pay reparations to Russia!!

Yep, they were on the losing side as they'd sided with Germany (in their own right rather than as signatories of the tripartite pact) against Russia. $300 million in 1944 dollars!

Russia thought they would be a pushover but they put up a surprisingly stout defence

I suspect Ukraine may be the same if it comes to it. People fight harder to protect their homeland. And the influx of Turkish drones and US and UK anti tank missiles makes Russia's armour less of an advantage. I assume something similar is happening in ground to air missiles. An invasion without air superiority or an advantage in armour suddenly sounds rather hard.

It may be the first very modern war sadly.apprently the Turks are making drones that can swarm attack with payloads at racing drone speeds. A foot soldiers worst nightmare.
I wonder how many Russians would weep if Putin drank some hot tea and fell ill he has done them no favors.

There is no doubt the Finns were, and are, very tough, but it should be remembered that when the Soviet Union invaded (in 1940) the army was a complete shambles, due partly to Stalin purging anyone who knew anything about fighting a war. The Russian army of 1944 was a completely different beast to that of 1940 - well trained, motivated and well equipped. Rumour has it that it was the appalling performance of the Russian army against the Finns which encouraged Hitler to believe that invading Russia would be a walkover (which initially it was of course)…

My Grandpa fought against the Russians, manning an artillery gun in the Finnish forests.

He really didn’t like the Russians at all.

Ben Wallace (uk defence secretary) has released a statement on the situation and I’m surprised (shocked?) as to how well it is written.

Ben Wallace : On the situation in Ukraine

I honestly dont see Russia invading the Ukraine, it's much easier to keep the Americans on their toes and just sit and do nothing.

All we've had is speculation, the Russians are going to do this, the Russians are going to do that, the Russians are poised to invade and its days away.

It was days away weeks ago.

.

The UK has given the Ukraine some ATGM's, like those are magic and couldnt be attacked in any other ways, from the air for example.They can also be jammed, and modern tank armour is pretty impressive against anti tank weapons.. And how many did we give them ? 10, a 100 ?. Russia probably has more Tanks on the border than missiles we could supply, so why give them.

Maybe NATO is hoping some drunken Ukrainian is going to kick things off themselves.

But personally, with the exception of the lone nut, nobody really wants to start anything.

I honestly dont see Russia invading the Ukraine,

They invaded Crimea and other border regions years ago. The question is, to what degree will Putin escalate the invasion that has already occurred. Putin has put himself in a position where he cannot back down. NATO rejected his demands, if he doesn't respond, he looks weak.

The UK has given the Ukraine some ATGM’s, like those are magic and couldnt be attacked in any other ways, from the air for example.They can also be jammed, and modern tank armour is pretty impressive against anti tank weapons.. And how many did we give them ? 10, a 100 ?. Russia probably has more Tanks on the border than missiles we could supply, so why give them.

Ukraine doesn't have an effective air force, the only way they can fight tanks is with ground launched missiles. Those missiles can also be used to attack fortified emplacements so they aren't purely an anti-tank weapon. Modern anti-tank missiles are fire-and-forget and attack the tank from above, not from the sides. They have a two-stage warhead. The first stage triggers the explosive armour, the second stage is intended to penetrate the conventional armour under that.

If the missiles were ineffective, there'd be no reason for Russia to be upset about supplying them to Ukraine. It's not necessary to destroy every enemy tank to render them less effective. If the Russians know that Ukraine has modern anti-tank missiles, they will be forced to adjust their tactics accordingly, which constrains their tactical and strategic options. Russia may have a lot of tanks, but they can't deploy them all to Ukraine - they still need troops and armour along their other borders. The U.S. has tens of thousands of anti-tank missiles so they can supply Ukraine with enough missiles to make a full-scale invasion very costly for Russia. Ukraine could not withstand a full-scale invasion by Russia, but they could make it a very costly victory.

Is the Crimea not where the Russian Black Sea fleet lives ?, so completely understandable and i expect any superpower would have done the same if it meant having 'enemies'(loose term) in that area.

If the missiles were ineffective

I'm not saying they're totally ineffective, but as powerful and useful as they are, the small amount that the UK is supplying isnt going to last long against the Russian army, and then what ?. Wait till the US or whomever supplies more. I'm not sure they could get them there in time to do any good as Russia would certainly launch an all out assault and overrun airports and more than likely Ukrainian positions.

Thats the thing people seem to forget, they think its Hollywood and nobody runs out. Ships, be they destroyers, frigates or carriers have a finite supply and when thats expended, that ship or whatever needs to retire. I doont think theres a carrier afloat that can sustain itself for more that a fortnight,maybe 3 weeks before they run out of supplies. In a battle the Ordnance is going to run out a lot faster

Theres 26 Airports spread throughout Ukraine, but with Russian forces to the north,east and south that leaves only about 5, and i dont see them being of much use when by that time Russia is occupying 2/3 of the country.

As ever, its the airports in these things that become the targets first. No airport = no resupply.

But as i said. Nothing is going to happen. Russia isnt going to invade.

I’m not saying they’re totally ineffective, but as powerful and useful as they are, the small amount that the UK is supplying isnt going to last long against the Russian army, and then what ?.

We don't know the number the UK is prepared to supply, let alone what other countries like the US may have supplied.

Wait till the US or whomever supplies more. I’m not sure they could get them there in time to do any good as Russia would certainly launch an all out assault and overrun airports and more than likely Ukrainian positions.

You're assuming there's none stockpiled in neighbouring NATO countries

As ever, its the airports in these things that become the targets first. No airport = no resupply.

Whilst air re-supply would be optimal we're not talking about the Falklands here - you could easily and effectively resupply by land. If Russia goes beyond the Donbas they're going to get bogged down, this won't be a 2-3 day skirmish with Ukraine being overrun.

We're also not sure what air defence systems Ukraine has in place - if Russia can't effectively use it's air force (especially in ground support roles) they'll likely take a lot of losses (beyond the Donbas anyway).

But as i said. Nothing is going to happen. Russia isnt going to invade.

Hopefully not but as has been said, what's Putin's next move? It can't be cheap keeping 100k troops at the Ukrainian border and he's talked himself into a position he can't back down from without appearing weak. If he hadn't previously invaded the Crimea I'd be a lot more sceptical about a Russian invasion now.

Escalating cyber activity isn't a good sign either, I don't believe it's all (or even mostly) being carried out by independent Russian patriots. It's sanctioned and likely orchestrated by Russian intelligence (along with them being directly involved). Even the recent Revil arrests seem to be just a distraction tactic to me, letting Russia say "see, we're cooperating in hunting down cyber criminals" whereas in fact Revil was already largely defunct and Russia are secretly coordinating with other groups on cyber attacks against Ukraine.

Only had time to read the first third but I agree, it's really well written!

Ben Wallace (uk defence secretary) has released a statement on the situation and I’m surprised (shocked?) as to how well it is written.

That was a good read, cheers.

All we’ve had is speculation, the Russians are going to do this, the Russians are going to do that, the Russians are poised to invade and its days away.

It was days away weeks ago.

I don't think your Facebook feed is helping you. The slightly obvious massing you can see from space isn't just speculation.

The delay is related to weather, the urgency related to conscripts going home on the normal rotation. There's also the calculations Putin is doing on what he will gain/risk.

I’m not saying they’re totally ineffective, but as powerful and useful as they are, the small amount that the UK is supplying isnt going to last long against the Russian army, and then what ?

I imagine they know this, tha calculation is they add to the likely losses if Putin invades and changes his calculations. The cumulative impact of strengthening with this that and the other. It's that old concept called deterrence.

Maybe NATO Putin is hoping some drunken Ukrainian is going to kick things off themselves.

FIFY

 I don’t think it was the West’s military might that won the Cold War.

Yes and no. The US intentionally did things that increased the amount that the USSR had to spend on defence like recommissioning WW2 battleships with very thick armour which required the USSR to develop the capability to defeat the armour and Star Wars. It didn't matter if Star Wars was never going to work, it required the USSR to do their own research. Before YouTube, so expensive 😉

I went to Moscow twice - once in 1989 so pre the breakup of the USSR, on the way through to China, once in 1997 to work for 4 months. The difference was amazing. In 1989 their were shortages of everything, queues for e.g. shampoo. In 1997 everything was available if you had money but lots of people didn't. The people I worked with (ex Space City and ex KGB) were somewhere in the middle. They liked the freedom, didn't like the inequality.

My Russian friends (living in England) took their teenage kids to Russia for a long summer holiday just before COVID. The kids were keen to see the motherland. The parents wanted to show them how much better England is. The kids came back convinced that England was a better place to live.

The kids came back convinced that England was a better place to live.

Ukrainians have come to the same conclusion about not wanting to live in Russia.

I think (Dyna-Ti) you underestimate the Ukraininans quite a lot. Yes, they've bought anti tank missiles form the UK, they've also bought them from the US and others, anti aircraft missiles and anti tank drones from the Turks, and enough of them. The drones are a particular concern to the russians as they've been used recently and demonstrated to be effective against Russina armour (syria)
Also - have you looked at a map of the Ukraine - resupply is plenty possible. If putin invades to support his mother Russia fantasy it will be limited, to minimise getting bogged down. You aren't going to see hundreds of tanks rolling along while a couple of hundred Ukrainian POW's stand around in 1950's gear.
Putin CAN'T get bogged down... it accelerates the possibility of the south kicking off again, and this time uncontrollably. Common sense says he doesn't invade... but common sense might not be the decider to a man on a crusasde

It's all rather worrying.

Was reading into some discussion on this yesterday, apparently one of the key reasons the Russians haven't crossed the border yet is that they're having a really mild, wet Winter over there and any attempt to move heavy armour through all that mud in Easten Ukraine be a nightmare.

If they get a cold snap soon and the ground freezes,it's game on. This is why the invasion's been 'days away' for weeks now.

The Ukrainians are fully aware of their situation and are already planning to resist initially and then switch to guerilla tactics, guerilla insurgencies are hard to deal with even when they're impromtu and some of the population are friendly (the US in Iraq for example).

In Ukraine the insurgency will be planned, backed by the government, trained in advance, well equipped and supported by almost every member of the public, it'll get very very nasty, very quickly.

Putin CAN’T get bogged down… it accelerates the possibility of the south kicking off again,

Oh and this is a great point, if Putin does go into Ukraine, then it's pretty likely Chechnya will kick off again. Kazakhstan is already in tumult and Putin is committed to helping there. Georgia probably won't be far behind.

Hence why he can't afford to get bogged dowm, hence why the new Ukrainan defence doctrine is likely to be effective.

Question guys..?

Turkey has a tenuous relationship with Russia and is in NATO of course.

I'm surprised they have helped Ukraine with the drones, seems a pretty forthright FU to Putin? Doesnt this go against their general policy towards Russia?

Educate me.

Turkey's economy is down the toilet - 36% inflation, all the serious economists already sacked by the government for disagreeing with policies that were bound to screw the economy. They need the cash, their drones are battle proven in Syria, I suspect they will sell to anyone.

Re NATO, they are a member but they're not getting access to advance technology like the F35 because of their purchase of Russian radar. Back in the cold war they were very useful as a base for missiles and planes - same distance to Moscow as from Berlin, much closer to the industry beyond the Urals. Now I'm not sure how vital they are to NATO.

Just reading about Turkish drone use in Syria - Putin could really get a bloody nose if Ukraine buys enough of them

https://www.mei.edu/publications/fight-syrias-skies-turkey-challenges-russia-new-drone-doctrine

Doesnt this go against their general policy towards Russia?

I'm pretty sure Erdogan sees Turkey as being on equal terms with Russia in terms of sociopolitical might (I know) and therefore feels that he can do whatever he likes

Turks and Russian grumbling go back along way. Turkey need cash plain and simple but they don't need a Russia that's getting close. turkey needs to control the black sea and keep the lanes open.
The Ukraine Parliament was given a vip tour of turkey last week I assume to stick two fingers up to Putin.
Also a giggle that Thay are considering Bitcoin to get them out of the inflation spiral.

The Globemasters are still flying in too. Also the Russian embassy is being emptied of staff if you believe the internet.

It's hard to see Putin backing down without losing face within the Kremlin circle.

Hopes pinned on the German talks pulling a cat out of a bag

The Assad regime suffered heavy losses as a result of the drone campaign: 3,000 soldiers, 151 tanks, eight helicopters, three drones, three fighter jets (including two Russian-made Sukhoi Su-24s), around 100 armored military vehicles and trucks, eight aerial defense systems, 86 cannons and howitzers, ammunition trucks and dumps, and one headquarters, among other military equipment and facilities. 

Putin could really get a bloody nose if Ukraine buys enough of them

You're not wrong!!

the small amount that the UK is supplying isnt going to last long against the Russian army, and then what ?.

From the U.K. it’s “thousands”

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/britain-fears-tens-of-thousands-dead-if-russia-invades-ukraine-jvzh266pr

The British military gave Ukraine thousands of anti-tank missiles this week to use in the event of an invasion by Moscow.

I don’t know what counts as a small amount, but they’ll be getting kit from elsewhere too. No idea if they actually know how to use it.

No idea if they actually know how to use it.

Can't remember if it was someone on here or an article that said we would send army to train them.

Time to test out new weapons in this region first before the mother of all wars start with CCP in future.

Latest move by Russia

" According to AIS data from marinetraffic.com, five Ropucha-class landing ships and one Ivan Gren-class landing ship have been dispatched from Russia's Baltic fleet. It is believed the ships are en route towards the English Channel."

Just a routine patrol through international waters. Who knows, maybe they'll do a tour of the UK, sailing in international waters.

They might even anchor and conduct some tests.

Thats not provocative is it ?.

---------------

No Im not underestimating the Ukraine. But I reckon many here are over estimating their ability, US/UK supplied or not.

@Big'n'Daft

Im not on facebook.