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It's all rather worrying.
Was reading into some discussion on this yesterday, apparently one of the key reasons the Russians haven't crossed the border yet is that they're having a really mild, wet Winter over there and any attempt to move heavy armour through all that mud in Easten Ukraine be a nightmare.
If they get a cold snap soon and the ground freezes,it's game on. This is why the invasion's been 'days away' for weeks now.
The Ukrainians are fully aware of their situation and are already planning to resist initially and then switch to guerilla tactics, guerilla insurgencies are hard to deal with even when they're impromtu and some of the population are friendly (the US in Iraq for example).
In Ukraine the insurgency will be planned, backed by the government, trained in advance, well equipped and supported by almost every member of the public, it'll get very very nasty, very quickly.
Putin CAN’T get bogged down… it accelerates the possibility of the south kicking off again,
Oh and this is a great point, if Putin does go into Ukraine, then it's pretty likely Chechnya will kick off again. Kazakhstan is already in tumult and Putin is committed to helping there. Georgia probably won't be far behind.
Hence why he can't afford to get bogged dowm, hence why the new Ukrainan defence doctrine is likely to be effective.
Question guys..?
Turkey has a tenuous relationship with Russia and is in NATO of course.
I'm surprised they have helped Ukraine with the drones, seems a pretty forthright FU to Putin? Doesnt this go against their general policy towards Russia?
Educate me.
Turkey's economy is down the toilet - 36% inflation, all the serious economists already sacked by the government for disagreeing with policies that were bound to screw the economy. They need the cash, their drones are battle proven in Syria, I suspect they will sell to anyone.
Re NATO, they are a member but they're not getting access to advance technology like the F35 because of their purchase of Russian radar. Back in the cold war they were very useful as a base for missiles and planes - same distance to Moscow as from Berlin, much closer to the industry beyond the Urals. Now I'm not sure how vital they are to NATO.
Just reading about Turkish drone use in Syria - Putin could really get a bloody nose if Ukraine buys enough of them
Doesnt this go against their general policy towards Russia?
I'm pretty sure Erdogan sees Turkey as being on equal terms with Russia in terms of sociopolitical might (I know) and therefore feels that he can do whatever he likes
Turks and Russian grumbling go back along way. Turkey need cash plain and simple but they don't need a Russia that's getting close. turkey needs to control the black sea and keep the lanes open.
The Ukraine Parliament was given a vip tour of turkey last week I assume to stick two fingers up to Putin.
Also a giggle that Thay are considering Bitcoin to get them out of the inflation spiral.
The Globemasters are still flying in too. Also the Russian embassy is being emptied of staff if you believe the internet.
It's hard to see Putin backing down without losing face within the Kremlin circle.
Hopes pinned on the German talks pulling a cat out of a bag
The Assad regime suffered heavy losses as a result of the drone campaign: 3,000 soldiers, 151 tanks, eight helicopters, three drones, three fighter jets (including two Russian-made Sukhoi Su-24s), around 100 armored military vehicles and trucks, eight aerial defense systems, 86 cannons and howitzers, ammunition trucks and dumps, and one headquarters, among other military equipment and facilities.
Putin could really get a bloody nose if Ukraine buys enough of them
You're not wrong!!
the small amount that the UK is supplying isnt going to last long against the Russian army, and then what ?.
From the U.K. it’s “thousands”
THETIMES.CO.UK The British military gave Ukraine thousands of anti-tank missiles this week to use in the event of an invasion by Moscow.
I don’t know what counts as a small amount, but they’ll be getting kit from elsewhere too. No idea if they actually know how to use it.
No idea if they actually know how to use it.
Can't remember if it was someone on here or an article that said we would send army to train them.
Time to test out new weapons in this region first before the mother of all wars start with CCP in future.
Latest move by Russia
" According to AIS data from marinetraffic.com, five Ropucha-class landing ships and one Ivan Gren-class landing ship have been dispatched from Russia's Baltic fleet. It is believed the ships are en route towards the English Channel."
Just a routine patrol through international waters. Who knows, maybe they'll do a tour of the UK, sailing in international waters.
They might even anchor and conduct some tests.
Thats not provocative is it ?.
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No Im not underestimating the Ukraine. But I reckon many here are over estimating their ability, US/UK supplied or not.
@Big'n'Daft
Im not on facebook.
What are they going to land and where are they going to land it?
What are they going to land and where are they going to land it?
Probably heading for the Black Sea.
Speculation in some of the tabloids comments sections is of an invasion of the UK 😆
No Im not underestimating the Ukraine. But I reckon many here are over estimating their ability, US/UK supplied or not.
It's not about ability, it's about willingness to fight, Ukraine grew up in the Donbas
Watch the 93rd Brigade stuff on YouTube, if IT consultant's from Kiev were getting their hands dirty as ideological volunteers then the country has changed and it's citizens prepared to fight and unfortunately die
@Big’n’Daft
Im not on facebook.
Makes me wonder where you get your tripe from? 50 cent brigade?
Time to test out new weapons in this region first before the mother of all wars start with CCP in future.
Not that new, more sell the Ukrainians short shelf life munitions cheaply as they are likely to use them
NLAW has been around for a while, hopefully it's easier to shoot than LAW 94 which was an awful first time experience
Makes me wonder where you get your tripe from?
No need to be abusive
Or its that the argument winner in your book. If you disagree then say that. Throwing insults out just makes me think you're a (Insert swear word here)
Throwing insults out just makes me think you’re a (Insert swear word here)
I think you views on this issue are tripe, sometimes people take offence when you say this. I'm sure you are a perfectly nice person in real life who is capable of holding a discussion with people who say their view on a particular issue are tripe.
Or you can take it personally and call me rude names
Sorry which views ?
That the Ukraine is in an impossible position, having thrown their lot in with nato, being well aware of how Russia feels about its border security ?
Or is it that if anything does kick off, that Ukraine is f*****d with many thousands losing their lives on both sides because of American policy of crowding in on Russia.
Perhaps even that by arming the Ukrainians Britain is placing itself, and us in danger of retaliation from a superpower who has the ability to snuff us out. There are only a few real superpowers now, and we aint one of them.
Or is it because im not on facebook, although just a couple of posts back on that you were accusing me of getting wrong info FROM facebook.
How many times have we heard this from the US. Its Russia, its China,It's Syria, its Iran, its this country, and that country. Russia is a big superpower, with all the military toys the US has. And here are we playing piggy in the middle to the detriment of ourselves and the Ukrainian people.
So according to your tripe- (Or point of view, if you would prefer i use a term that is less argumentative), being on facebook is false info, but not being on facebook is also false info.
So whats that about ?.On my opinion, which obviously differs from yours, though it seems like you think im some sort of pro Russia stooge.
At no point have I disagreed with your stance, yet you're the one going on the attack. Sorry buddy but care to explain, or are you ex military and this is your usual point of view. Out with the pitchforks for any dissenting voices querying how crazily stupid Ukrainian leadership is being, and why in Christs name the UK are stirring the pot.
Say for example Scotland gained independence and joined the CSTO, and being part of that placed a military base on the border with England. Would England be ok with that ?. Or would they place their own troops there, and two armies that close is a recipe for disaster.
I'll remind you this is purely hypothetical, so lets not have another rant on those specifics and stick to the basic premise.
I am hoping HOPING nothing happens. Others seem to self assured that Britain's role in America's game is the best route, when clearly it isnt. We should be hounding out own government to stay well out of this, not flying the Rule Britannia flag,
But anyway. Its not about my opinion, or yours, so perhaps a bit of civility is best eh.
I'll see if i can track down someone I know who's Ukrainian and ask what he thinks.
You are the one that thinks NATO is an offensive alliance deliberately antagonising Russia
That's tripe, as is
of American policy of crowding in on Russia.
It doesn't exist
Perhaps even that by arming the Ukrainians Britain is placing itself, and us in danger of retaliation from a superpower who has the ability to snuff us out. There are only a few real superpowers now, and we aint one of them.
Does Russia dictate where sovereign states can trade arms? Maybe we belong to NATO because of the Russian threat.
So you think the Ukraine should just accept their lot as a slave state of the USSR?
.
Never knew STW forum had this many tank commanders, war lords, military strategists and military generals. Great entertainment.
I learned everything I know from Red Alert
So you think the Ukraine should just accept their lot as a slave state of the USSR ?
Sorry ?? What ?? Who said that ?
Thats one of those damned if you do damned if you dont questions isnt it. I've given neither opinion on that question, but if you want me, to have an opinion on that, Ukraine should be it's own country.
That ok, that fair. Or should i have another opinion that suits your questioning.
@Big'n'Daft
Why has the US got 800 military bases spread about the world ?
Sightseeing perhaps 😆
On a minor note, as I understand it, referring to Ukraine as "the Ukraine" is nowadays incorrect and seems to be considered somewhat insulting by Ukrainians.
Or is it that if anything does kick off, that Ukraine is f*****d with many thousands losing their lives on both sides because of American policy of crowding in on Russia.
That's not what's happening at all. Ukrainians booted out a corrupt leader who had ties to Russia and favoured closer ties with the EU. Putin took this snub very badly and invaded Ukraine, annexing Crimea and border areas. Ukraine has severe problems with corruption and economic mismanagement and has no hope of joining the EU and NATO until those are dealt with. So, it's not that the U.S. is trying to crowd Russia, it's that Russia's neighbours are afraid of it and are looking to Europe for something better. This is on Putin, not the U.S.
as I understand it, referring to Ukraine as “the Ukraine” is nowadays incorrect and seems to be considered somewhat insulting by Ukrainians.
I learned everything I know from Red Alert
In which case you know that Ukraine has cheaper supply lines and can walk all over Russia. Maybe that's why Putin has an Inf-zerg building up on the border!
Tesla coils?
Why has the US got 800 military bases spread about the world ?
Lots of reasons I imagine, although the number is inaccurate and the definition of a "lillypad" used to boost it to sell the book. I really don't think they are looking to lay siege. Quite the reverse, Russia has challenged freedom of navigation not the US.
The reality of the US in Ukraine is probably close to this, with a likelihood that numbers may swell to speed up any evacuation of US citizens
Well its an interesting list of foreign bases per country.
Russia has 13. France has 15, Australia was 2, Turkey has 10, Britain has 16, Canada has 4, Italy has 4, India has 5, and the US was 800.
Hmmmmm, bit of a disparity going on there, but hey, that doesn't mean to say the US is an aggressive country.
😆 😆
Perhaps even that by arming the Ukrainians Britain is placing itself, and us in danger of retaliation from a superpower who has the ability to snuff us out. There are only a few real superpowers now, and we aint one of them.
I am not sure Russia has enough tugboats to tow their navy to Britain.
Putins sabre rattling is all about domestic politics, he needs foreign distractions to make him look strong because he is presiding over a domestic policy disaster. Even imprisoning and killing all his rivals is starting to wear thin.
Unfortunately the idiot Biden has left him a path to make a "minor incursion" so he can sell his strongman image in Russia while the west just impose a few more futile sanctions while buying all the gas they can take.
Sure it wasn't a deliberate slip. Biden has been at this game for a very long time.
and the US was 800.
Probably 550 of them in Iraq and Afghanistan.
800 averages about 4 per UN member which is why it's a number designed to illicit a particular response rather than inform on US bases abroad
Unfortunately the idiot Biden has left him a path to make a “minor incursion” so he can sell his strongman image in Russia while the west just impose a few more futile sanctions while buying all the gas they can take.
That might be the NATO calculus, unfortunately Ukrainians paying with their lives to keep Putin in power and western Europe warm with the lights on
Why has the US got 800 military bases spread about the world ?
In reality, they don't. That number will include a bunch of tiny outposts that aren't really a base in the sense of being a viable stand-alone entity. In countries like South Korea and Japan, there ae multiple bases - naval, airforce, and marine corps. Those bases are there because the governments of those countries want U.S. troops on their soil to deter Russia, China, and North Korea. Many countries are ambivalent about the U.S. but having a defense treaty with the U.S. and some bases is much preferable to being left to deal with Russia or China on their own. Russia and China don't have bases all over the world because they are not welcome whereas the U.S. is tolerated.
And if you counted Wagner et al I suspect Russian bases would be in the hundreds in Africa alone, not 13 globally 😉
A significant portion of the Ukrainian population have done time fighting and are willing to fight. The joke that was Ukrainian military has changed as has the willingness to fight. Any invasion will see an intolerable number of body bags going back to mother Russia
Ask a Russian about how successful they were during the Winter War with overwhelming odds on their side…
I suspect im not the only one on here or irl that's getting up each morning and clicking on the news half expecting the breaking story to be that Russia has invaded Ukraine.
Same as it ever was, the little people die to fulfill the ego and power struggles of the rich and powerful.
half expecting the breaking story to be that Russia has invaded Ukraine.
Russia invaded Ukraine several years ago. What you mean is that they escalate the invasion.
^^ You know what I mean.
I have a question: Is it normal for an invading army to gather in their hundreds of thousands at the border of the intended invadee and then just sit there, waiting? It's been weeks!! It's not exactly preserving the element of surprise...