A cornerstone of China’s foreign policy is respecting existing territorial boundaries (Taiwan IS part of China of course, as is Ladakh….). Which makes their abject failure to condemn the current Ukrainian situation all the more craven, but vetoes any incursion into a weakened Russia.
Worse still, they're signatories of the Budapest memorandum that guaranteed the (pre 2014) borders of Ukraine.
China wants access to raw materials and military technology
I suspect only one of those two remains now....
Russia took Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya into account but drew an incorrect conclusion. They seem to have failed to recognise the West won the wars in those conflicts very, very easily, but lost the peace (at great expense).
A cornerstone of China’s foreign policy is respecting existing territorial boundaries
That's what China says. It's not what they do. They are similar to Russia in that they claim a whole bunch of territory based on historical myths and reject any treaties or agreements that they find inconvenient.
Yeah, as distasteful as that may be for some, I do think bridges will have to be built (or rebuilt)
You are right, although it's worth noting the war in Ukraine hasn't actually finished yet, as much as everyone might want to move onto the 'peace' bit, the conflict is still going.
But also With Putin still in power this will be incredibly difficult, He is relishing a new cold war, probably because it shores up his domestic propaganda, i.e. "you're not poor because of a corrupt resource skimming despot and his vanity war, it's because the West screwed you over" that works for him...
I think he's just got to go, being helped along by a polonium salad, or having his big table polished with some Novichok laced Mr sheen would have some poetic justice perhaps, and I'm sure there are some in his circle who've mulled such ideas. "Peace" is often built on some less palatable actions by necessity...
Yeah, I'm thinking peace will be with Russia and not Putins regime
I think China has a basket full of it own issues that will probably prevent it from doing anything other than looking at shoring up the government at home, rather than offer anything more than weak vocal support for Russia.
It's declining and rapidly aging population, it's very precarious economy, it's massively overheated corrupt and bankrupt real estate sector, a foreign policy effort in Africa that's rapidly turning to dust in front of it's eyes, and a population who're rapidly feeling they're losing their share of the bargain they've made with the CCP. Not to add Xi's realisation having watched the bit of a mess that is Putin's "strategy" in Ukraine that he may as well give up permanently any dreams he had to invade Taiwan.
That’s what China says. It’s not what they do. They are similar to Russia in that they claim a whole bunch of territory based on historical myths and reject any treaties or agreements that they find inconvenient.
Yes, hence my comments about Taiwan, Ladakh (and you could probably extend that to Tibet and Xinjiang, but I didn't mention them because, realistically, that ship has sailed). It's gratifying, though, as Nick says, that Xi is probably having a rethink about Taiwan. When I lived in China I was always disturbed by how even people who could broadly be considered liberal would turn into raving ultranats when you brought up Taiwan.
a foreign policy effort in Africa that’s rapidly turning to dust in front of it’s eyes,
I haven't heard much about this, do you have a decent link to read up on it?
I'm so relived that the Russians have been pushed out of Kharkiv, it's great to have some good news for a change. I really hope that this is a sign of more victories to come
Things look pretty healthy for China in Africa as far as the Economist is concerned:
How Chinese firms have dominated African infrastructure from TheEconomist https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/how-chinese-firms-have-dominated-african-infrastructure/21807721
Worse still, they’re signatories of the Budapest memorandum that guaranteed the (pre 2014) borders of Ukraine.
Well so is Russia!!
Found a use for those electric scrambler motorbikes at last.
https://youtube.com/shorts/tvBNyZdpQ5M?feature=share
They've been trialled quite significantly by Western militaries. Good to see them being used in anger.
Leaders of Dnipro’s thriving Jewish community speak out about their history, their country, and their rejection of Vladimir Putin’s lies about “denazification”
www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/ukraine-jewish-community-russia-invasion-resistance-1351070/
Please let this be so.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1525391000268587008
It does seem like Russia has been routed from kharkiv
This video shows DNR seperatist troop who've fled the assault being held at gunpoint (by their Russian allies!) at the Russian border
https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1525032212164497408?t=ai3I6Mnmu1_1sKnXM0Zn6g&s=19
I particularly like this guys Putin tshirt
https://www.stpgoods.com/mr-president-cotton-t-shirt.html
What happens around Kherson and near Izyum and even the continued fighting in Mariupol , will be crucial, Russia still has plenty they can throw at the fight
Also that bridge crossing
At least 500 Ru soldiers lost from 1 brigade
https://twitter.com/Haruspexut/status/1525221497693945856?t=-YYGmcHZLe3YF8knrS1COw&s=19
The other brigade involved in the crossing lost a similar number of vehicles, so expect casualties to be similar
Russia still has plenty they can throw at the fight
All the reports I'm seeing suggest they are nearly spent. In this current offensive, they've lost thousands of soldiers and hundreds of vehicles but only made local advances of a few kilometers at best. At worst, they are in retreat.
Their losses may be horrendous and I imagine morale very damaged by what's happened at that bridge crossing, but they are still launching over 200 air sorties a day.
And their artillery is still relentless.
They have amassed a lot of troops to take Sevrodonetsk and are continuing to push from the South even if the pincer from the north was a disaster.
Putin seems mad enough to keep pushing it on !
They have amassed a lot of troops to take Sevrodonetsk and are continuing to push from the South even if the pincer from the north was a disaster.
Putin seems mad enough to keep pushing it on !
They've thrown everything they have at Ukraine and made very little progress. Their soldiers will be exhausted and they have lost massive quantities of equipment. Strategically, their offensive has been a disaster. Ukraine has been focusing on destroying Russian logistics and is now starting to counter-attack. It's quite possible that the Russian army will be routed like they were in the north.
Yeah it looks like Ru army could actually collapse, question is how long will Putin keep pushing in ever crappier units until he realises it's over ?
news reports this morning that Russia have lost a third of their ground forces originally deployed to Ukraine.
I don't think they can pull back from that. They may have the resources to keep throwing at it but they just don't have the tactical & strategic knowledge and ability to make it worthwhile.
Problem is Putin will never accept this. He needs to start being a bit more careful, because as has been said above China might decide they want to start taking Siberia back. Putin may well find that instead of expanding his 'Great Russia' back to the days of the USSR, it's shrunk down to the European portion only, leaving Russia much smaller than what it was when all this started.
Their losses may be horrendous and I imagine morale very damaged
So damaged in places that the 'commissars' have had to be deployed to encourage them to continue.
China might decide they want to start taking Siberia back
Ain't gonna happen. Why bother? Take it over by economic stealth like they're doing elsewhere.
Putin may well find that instead of expanding his ‘Great Russia’ back to the days of the USSR, it’s shrunk down to the European portion only, leaving Russia much smaller than what it was when all this started.
I think that's partly why hes pushing for a referendum in Ossetia and the luhansk, Donetsk and newly occupied regions.
Ukraine is a big country so it's easy to forget how much territory Russia has captured, and millions of people now newly'russian'
Holding on to all that will be a job in itself
This map of Russian SIM cards from a few days ago is pretty fascinating showing apparent troop distribution from just before that bridge crossing, big mass in that area
Be interesting to see what it looks like now
So damaged in places that the ‘commissars’ have had to be deployed to encourage them to continue.
That sounds so ominous.
I can't see China making a move on Russia, they don't need to. They can buy resources they need at whatever prices they choose with the Russian economy on its knees.
I can see some small Russian enclaves becoming "Russian", but a lot of people under Russian puppet rule will be emboldened to push for freedom. Belarus maybe, would be a huge crisis for Putin.
Well the Ukrainians have reached the Russian border North of Kharkiv and are launching a new counter-attack around Izyum, that if successful will further erode any chance the Russians have of encircling the UA in the SE and consolidating their hold on the Donbas. Indeed, they'll increasingly be moving to a defensive posture as they seek to defend the indefensible.
Meanwhile the Russians are training up a few thousand reserves (like that'll make much difference) and the blame game is starting to happen internally as people are finally waking up to the self-inflicted disaster that is upon them.
The irony that it is the corruption, nepotism and fraud that have characterised his gangster kleptocracy, that are now chewing his ar$e to bits, is somewhat profound. As ye sow, so shall ye reap.
Yep. If only 50 million Ukrainians didn't have to suffer horrendously to make it happen.
I don't buy the "NATO made him invade" BS, but I do believe the greed, laziness and inaction of Western European countries has allowed and normalised Putins regime and its tactics.
@dantsw13 agree totally. Toppling the bad guys and then high-fiving and buggering off 5 minutes later seem to be standard practice.
See Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan and of course "winning" the Cold War and leaving Russia to just get on with it.
I don’t buy the “NATO made him invade” BS, but I do believe the greed, laziness and inaction of Western European countries has allowed and normalised Putins regime and its tactics.
Yeah, perhaps, but there are two schools of thought on this. One is not to deal with dodgy regimes; but the other is to trade with them, invest in them, break down barriers and by doing so show them the ways of progressive liberal democracies.
I'm sure some people will complain about how our progressive liberal democracies are anything but; but we appear to be a bit better off in that respect than Russia.
The regime change thing and then just buggering off 5 minutes later isn't entirely true. We were in countries like Iraq and Afghanistan for many years before buggering off. Now whether or not our (the US's) philosophy of instant switch to Western Liberal democracy and free market was the right one (clue: it wasn't) or indeed whether our military 'assistance' was appropriate and sustainable when we left (it wasn't) is another question.
Not sure what exactly we could have done differently re Russia post collapse of Soviet Union. The narrative was the Eastern European countries understandably wanting to get as far away as possible from the Rus, and the Rus not being particularly welcoming to the bloc that had just effectively 'defeated' them. We tried rapprochement with them, but they were highly suspicious and never really bought into the idea of competing market economies.
However it has been apparent to those in foreign affairs for many years now that the whole NATO / Russia thing was a powder keg looking for a spark. My old man was a diplomat (though never involved in Eastern Europe/Cold War) and he was saying in late 90s/early 2000s that NATO needed to be very careful about who they let in as it would go down very badly with Russia. That's not to say the Rus were/are right to see NATO as a threat, however we can't deny that they do, and always have done. Whether or not they still perceive themselves as a putative superpower once this debacle has played out (or indeed whether anyone else does, though I think we already know the answer to that) is a moot point. In 3 months Putin has done more to destroy Russia's credibility as a military superpower (we already knew they weren't an economic one apart from oil and gas) than they managed since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Flat track bully at best
Not sure what exactly we could have done differently re Russia post collapse of Soviet Union.
I think one huge mistake was to push for rapid privatization of industry. Russians had no experience of free-market capitalism and stock markets so the public assets just got stolen by bureaucrats. That set Russia up for economic collapse and disenchantment. The result of that was that highly educated engineers and other essential workers didn't get paid and either left the country or had to join in on the corruption just to feed their families.
Same thing with democracy. Russians had no experience with it and the democratic opposition splintered into small parties all fighting for the same voters. Their leaders refused to form any sort of alliance or umbrella party because it would have meant losing their post as a party leader. That opened the door for Putin to take over once the pro-democracy parties collapsed. Westerners just assumed that democracy is some sort of natural order and Russians would take to it instinctively.
Same goes with courts and police. Russia needed support to establish an honest legal system and police force. A modern economy depends on having honest judges, but Russia had no experience of that.
More great trolling from Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1525967632524091394
Not that I'm a fan but McDonald's have said they are never going back to Russia.
They where company owned restaurants not like in the uk.
I think one huge mistake was to push for rapid privatization of industry. Russians had no experience of free-market capitalism and stock markets so the public assets just got stolen by bureaucrats. That set Russia up for economic collapse and disenchantment. The result of that was that highly educated engineers and other essential workers didn’t get paid and either left the country or had to join in on the corruption just to feed their families.
Same thing with democracy. Russians had no experience with it and the democratic opposition splintered into small parties all fighting for the same voters. Their leaders refused to form any sort of alliance or umbrella party because it would have meant losing their post as a party leader. That opened the door for Putin to take over once the pro-democracy parties collapsed. Westerners just assumed that democracy is some sort of natural order and Russians would take to it instinctively.
Same goes with courts and police. Russia needed support to establish an honest legal system and police force. A modern economy depends on having honest judges, but Russia had no experience of that.
Fair point to all of that. In fairness hadn't really thought through my answer. The same mistakes as we made elsewhere in essence then. It's crazy how much we assume in terms of the strength and independence of our own democracy, yet we're a corrupt and/or imbecilic leader and a few dodgy judges away from dictatorship. Look at the extent to which America's democracy is being compromised.
Still, at least what's happening with the Rus' atempts to smash Ukraine are an object (abject) lesson in how Putin's method of kleptocratic dictatorship is almost always doomed to fail in the long run
The irony that it is the corruption, nepotism and fraud that have characterised his gangster kleptocracy, that are now chewing his ar$e to bits, is somewhat profound. As ye sow, so shall ye reap.
Dear Boris, please see above....
I actually think that the last 20 years have given younger Russians an idea of what a different economic, political and social world they could be part of - the generation above them is what has propped up Putin and his cronies and the generation above that are still thinking they are Soviets.
As ever, we are too quick to point out our own, numerous, errors, without getting our heads around how the necessary changes are generational in timescale.
More backfires on Putin's plan.
Sweden joining NATO.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61456726
Putin really has f***ed Russia now. Finland and Sweden in and nothing he can do about it. Now saying they’d better not put missiles there.
Also an astonishing report on BBC news just now. As the threat of a Russian breakthrough recedes the reporters seem to be getting closer to the front line. Shells whistling in all around. Poor woman in her 60’s refusing to leave her home despite the rest of her village being empty. Soldiers implored her but she refused. Very sad, as was the dead labrador, killed by shelling presumably.
War sucks.
Sounds like Turkey want to piss on Finland and Sweden chips...
Guess Erdogan still wants some of Putin. Or some concessions from the US.
There some more info on Turkeys position here
https://www.dw.com/en/nato-turkey-outlines-demands-on-finland-and-sweden-membership/a-61806003
Speaking with Turkish reporters after a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Berlin, he said that Sweden and Finland must stop supporting terrorists in their countries, provide clear security guarantees and lift export bans on Turkey.
But yeh, could really be after something else, likely from the US
The final pullout of mcDonalds and Renault is also interesting. I suspect it will be a very very long time before anybody outside of Russia will invest there again, and certainly not while Putin remains in charge…
. I suspect it will be a very very long time before anybody outside of Russia will invest there again, and certainly not while Putin remains in charge…
Maybe from western nations but I suspect there will be plenty of people who will if they see an opportunity to make money and stick 2 fingers up to 'the west' at the same time. China being the obvious one but they won't be alone
Guess Erdogan still wants some of Putin. Or some concessions from the US.
Or EU membership.....
