Interview with an analyst from Royal United Services Institute. Amongst other things he doesn't believe that Ukraine will agree to anything less than getting the whole country back, apart from Sevastopol.
Other points:
- the Russians have local air superiority in the east but can't take advantage of it
- the Russians don't fly enough hours each year to be effective in both air to air and air to ground so concentrate on air to air. This means that they're stuck with dumb bombs dropped from below 10,000 feet so in range of MANPADs
- both sides have taken large casualties to the extent that within 2 weeks the Russian forces will be combat ineffective. The Ukrainian forces are in a better position as they're fighting a defensive war from prepared positions in the east and have a clear reason to fight.
- Russia's only hope is to break out and encircle Ukrainian forces in the east in the next 2 weeks.
- May 9th may just be used by Putin to change this to a war, allowing conscripts to be sent without having to sign waivers
Does anyone else feel like there is going to be a slow escalation until we are actively engaging with Russian troops?
Not unless Putin decides to escalate things. It's in his hands.
I think I’d be more surprised if it was air based attacks, and less surprised if it was teams on the ground sabotaging these facilities
A bit of background to what might well be going on,and it references Putin’s claims about SAS involvement.
It references training by British SF, but hen talks about where the SAS originated, but does not directly link the SAS to training in Ukraine.
Given that the SAS started the trend of that type of attack, and most countries have something similar hat has trained with them, you could link almost anyone to “them”.
More US trolling
https://twitter.com/USEmbassyKyiv/status/1518847209881718784?s=20&t=pps_-6rqK3sG075P8xhpNQ
Another strike in Russia
https://twitter.com/OSINT88/status/1519142396189159425?t=u8Loq3mULpw1yvKvceltqQ&s=19
And
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1519064511038246912?t=4hB-pBQv1uCJidAZn1bt6w&s=19
Given that the SAS started the trend of that type of attack, and most countries have something similar hat has trained with them, you could link almost anyone to “them”.
Didn't the word "commando" originate in the Boer war? Should everyone declare war on S.A. everytime commandos are used in combat?
More US trolling
LMAO.
I did read a piece a while ago that suggested that locals near to Russian logistics sites in Ukraine were using google mapping to literally drop pins on the site and sending that via SM to the UKF.
Everyone's a FOO these days
A bit of background to what might well be going on,and it references Putin’s claims about SAS involvement.
Well that article is incredibly informative.
My work mate here in Germany has a Ukrainian missus. She's from somewhere between Kyiv and Lviv. Mate was there in 2018 and said that he met a group of British squaddies off duty in a bar. Asked what they were doing and they alluded to helping train the Ukr forces.
Short terms training teams (STTT's) are nothing new. It's a key part of the government's influence ops. That's both regular and UKSF teams, although usually they stick to training peer units.
The Eastern European gigs are always sought after.
No idea if this is real, but it's a great picture.
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1518977473307938818
Lol - there's a rocket test facility in the middle of suburbia? Of course there is.
^ looks fake?
https://lana-sator.livejournal.com/160176.html (use Google translate)
Looks like a normal, secure, well-maintained Russian rocket propulsion test centre.
So, by some miracle, the Russians probably aren't actually lying here. At least not completely lying.
Thanks Martin. I was going to post that the facility did "look" to be in an industrial area... but those photos show it much better.
I don't think they have the same scruples about placing facilities like these within touching distance of apartment buildings anyhow.
Whoever flagged up the Navalny documentary on iplayer, thank you. Accepting that its going to be edited for maximum effect - OMFG!
Back to the 80's fear and dread.Dickface Putin is again threatening to use nukes without any warning if NATO countries interfere in his genocide. And one of his asswipe journos has asked him to erase GB!
Frankie Goes to Hollywood re-release to catch the mood?
Has the new missiles capability been verified? Saw the test launch footage but we the regime aren't always entirely honest.
Tbf any of his nukes could be with us. New missile is just bragging because Kim did it the week before. Kim is the grown up one in the relationship now so Putin is looking up to big Kim
Whoever flagged up the Navalny documentary on iplayer, thank you. Accepting that its going to be edited for maximum effect – OMFG!
The phone call with the "location still unknown" Konstantin Kudryavstev was unreal. God knows what happened to him.
Looks like people are fleeing Tranistria, long traffic jams near the boarder although I guess any traffic jam will be near the border in a strip of Land.
Frankie Goes to Hollywood re-release to catch the mood?
This is still a banger version of a tune...
I dare you to browse this thread or Twitter with this on...
How does this get de escalated?
I've given up on the news but saw n heard some news on the BBC.
How does this get de escalated?
We (the western European countries) help the Ukrainians to defeat the Russian army.
duncancallum
Full Member
How does this get de escalated?I’ve given up on the news but saw n heard some news on the BBC.
Russia humiliated on the world stage but Putin claiming some sort of victory at home.
Easy enough to do with the near absolute control of the media he has over there.
How we stop him doing this again in a few years? That's the tough one... though I suspect any state bordering Russia after this,puppet states excluded, will be learning some lessons right now for future use/ defence.
We (the western European countries) help the Ukrainians to defeat the Russian army
I don't see putin rolling over with out being s mental dangerous nut job
I keep hoping he has a stroke
I keep hoping he has a stroke
Bit of post nut clarity would see him right
With global warming, the North Pole is going to become ice-free (navigable).
So why is Putin so obsessed with buffering his southern flank?
So why is Putin so obsessed with buffering his southern flank?
According to my Russian/Syrian colleague, Ukraine is the route that every invading army from Napoleon to Hitler has taken to get to Moscow.
Maybe they should worry more about the invasions that succeeded and not failed.
Such as the very well documented one from the east … (from a slightly earlier time 😉 )
How does this get de escalated?
The obvious option is for Putin to redeploy his armed forced inside Russia…
There was a brief exchange about the Azov Regiment earlier. As further context to that Alexander Zemlianichenko, a Russian photo (Pulitzer winner, and nominee for work in Chechyna) journalist working for AP has written this article.
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It charts the rise and role of Russian neo-nazism/fascism since the 1990s surge and includes subsequent implications on liberal elements.
On top of that, for anyone that hasn’t watched the Navalny documentary, Navalny was/is actually “allied” with the far right in Russia (and is quite comfortable about it as a necessity to oppose Putin as a coalition).
Which for me raises concerns about a post Putin Russia. Even if he goes, what comes next?
Putin’s weaponisation of neo-Nazis was always a risky strategy, but it was not irrational. Unlike mainstream nationalists, who tend to support the idea of free elections, neo-Nazis reject democratic institutions and the very idea of human equality. For a dictator dismantling democracy and constructing an authoritarian regime, they were ideal accomplices.
Well worth 5 minutes of your time to get his viewpoint.
For those that remember it, he was the guy that photographed Yeltsin dancing at a rock concert.
Damn, I should have had my coffee first.
No it's not by Alexander, it's by Robert Horvarth.
https://scholars.latrobe.edu.au/rhorvath
FFS, I shouldn't post before 9am
These longer range GPS-guided rockets the US has supplied. Again, are these a real changer for Ukraine?
I don't know if you can do this, but can suddenly the Black Sea fleet, the bridge into Crimea and any storage facility can now be hit from 3-500km away...?
On top of that, for anyone that hasn’t watched the Navalny documentary, Navalny was/is actually “allied” with the far right in Russia (and is quite comfortable about it as a necessity to oppose Putin as a coalition).
I was intrigued by Navalny's defence of him dealing with the Far Right. Not sure how far he has consorted with them over the whole time frame of his campaigning beyond that well publicised appearance at the rally in the documentary, but "my enemy's enemy is my friend" doesn't always work out great.
According to my Russian/Syrian colleague, Ukraine is the route that every invading army from Napoleon to Hitler has taken to get to Moscow.
Yes but maybe Ukraine was the bit they actually wanted to keep...
but “my enemy’s enemy is my friend” doesn’t always work out great.
I get the point he's making though. Russia's "democracy" is starting from such a low point, right now it's a collection of folks saying "The people currently in charge are a bunch of crooks, we need to come together as citizens to do something" As he suggests they're talking about absolute basics; freedom of speech, rule of law, no arbitrary detention, that sort of thing. The sorts of stuff that's so broad based it's an easy banner to rally around.
are these a real changer for Ukraine?
There are very few weapons that by themselves are "game changers" Employed effectively they can inflict some serious damage, but equally they're complex weapons that take a huge amount of inter service co-ordination to use well.
All wars eventually come down to making sure your bloke with a rifle kills their bloke with a rifle first.
the bridge into Crimea
I'm really surprised they've not found a way to demolish that yet. Must be one of the largest supply routes for a lot of that southern region. It would probably have helped them get rid of it 7 odd years ago when Russia first invaded Crimea.
This viewpoint from the Russian side is pretty grim. It looks like Ukraine is goading Russia into trying to advance into well-planned traps in order to grind their army down.
https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1519466321502740482
