Ive not seen this anywhere else apart from LCI and a very pro Ukrainian account, if anyone can verify itd be appreciated
https://twitter.com/LCI/status/1637187448072552449?t=Dj4NkQ0esEEEwxm3BXGHnA&s=09
If Ukraine fails to defend its independence, we will have no choice, we will be forced to enter the conflict," says Jan Emeryk Rościszewski, Polish Ambassador to France
I don't think Poland can stomach being in that position again even with NATO behind them so I can see why going on the offence is better than waiting for 100thou Russia troupes at the boarder.
The stakes are frightening
If Ukraine fails to defend its independence, we will have no choice, we will be forced to enter the conflict,” says Jan Emeryk Rościszewski, Polish Ambassador to France
It's literal, "If Ukraine fails to defend its independence..." i.e if Russia "wins"
The peoples of Poland and Ukraine haven't had the best history as neighbours, but they both detest the Russian State far more.
Recent pre-invasion polls have shown a more mellow view of Ukrainians
It’s literal, “If Ukraine fails to defend its independence…” i.e if Russia “wins”
If Russia starts advancing considerably in Ukraine, I do wonder what the west / NATO / close neighbours will do.
From Twitter yesterday, signs of Russian drones dropping Satellite distress beacons on AFU positions. The Russians own the satellites these are linked to so pull the data for targeting info....
Obvious solution is obvious... Ukraine drone fly it back across to the Russian camp.
Eh? If you have dropped a beacon in a UKR position, then you must have known where that position is in the first place to have flown a drone there?
maybe they know the rough location, fly the drone over to drop the beacon to be more accurate.
Eh? If you have dropped a beacon in a UKR position, then you must have known where that position is in the first place to have flown a drone there?
Homebrew self guided something or other which uses the emergency beacon system?
Homebrew self guided something or other which uses the emergency beacon system?
Would make more sense, EPIRB's have a system that sends out a literal 'ping' on their frequency so you can locate them by just waving a directional antennae+ receiver and headphones around and walking towards wherever the signal is strongest.
The EPRIB satellite system IIRC works like a reverse GPS, the satellites receive the ping, and calculate between them where it came from, It's not very accurate, hence the 2nd method of doing it on the ground once you've got rescue teams within some proximity.
It's not like SPOT/InReach which uses GPS location and transmits them over a satellite phone link.
Would it not be fairly easy to jam or interfere with the locater beacon. Surely, all you'd need to do is mimic the signal at a different location or multiple locations and the detector wouldn't know which one to follow.
Been reading a book on Stalingrad..
The Russian side ability for suffering and losses is staggering.
Another factor not mentioned above is modern communications, at Stalingrad Russian troops had no way to communicate with their families back home, no phones and what few letters got through were heavily censored. The folks back home were largely unaware of how their sons were being treated.
Now, even with the Russia state doing it's best to filter out bad news, news of conditions at the front and the horrendous casualties is filtering back, hence why so many fled the draft, why recruiting office keep catching fire and why Putin has been so careful to avoid drafting Muscovites whose families may have connections.
Russia's resolve tends to look utterly unbreakable... until one day it suddenly isn't, see Afghanistan for instance.
I guess. But then it would depend on how clever whatever kit the Russians are using is.
I don't design bombs, but hypothetically if I did and was using that sort of guidance, then I'd probably design it to fly to a target with +/- 50m accuracy (because you obviously know where it is), then aim directly at the beacon which I'd just dropped on some weak point. A bit like laser guided munitions, but without actually having to hang around.
So what do we think of Xi's visit?
Seems that either: he is going to do nada, other than some quiet increase in supplying Russia with 'things' or there may, just may, be a word to back off to the benefit of all...?
I suspect it'll be a combination of a public show of solidarity with a fair bit of 'WTF are you playing at Vlad?' Going on behind closed doors.
So what do we think of Xi’s visit?
He's trying to figure out what's best for him. Weakening the U.S., NATO, etc. will be his top priority, but he also needs to manage relations with the West. Putin started a disastrous war and is losing badly, China's not going to throw it's hat in with a losing cause but they might prop him up just enough to get cheap oil and keep NATO distracted. Xi will do whatever he thinks is best for China, he has no loyalty to Putin.
This is obviously unconfirmed, but just the fact that it's quite likely true is an indication of how badly Russia is doing.
https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1638476582879731713
I did a bit of google fu to try and understand letter number designation and so on. Its not my stuff but a C&P:
T/-72/B/3
T: Indicates this is a tank.
72: This is the tank model. This number usually is roughly correlated to the year first introduced, although it’s usually only roughly around that time.
B: This indicates a variant designation, generally indicating an upgrade from the base model. Other letters are also seen.
3: This indicates further variant differentiation, essentially meaning an upgrade that is considered insufficiently large in scope to warrant it’s own letter designation. This upgrade is based on the preceeding variant designation, and usually the previous number designation ( B, B1, B2, B3).
I will also mention that since the T-72B3M exists, M is used to indicate a modernized version of an existing model, usually accomplished via retrofitting new equipment, however this is not always the case, as some upgrades essentially involve rebuilding the tank with only the chassis being relatively untouched.
Some variants will also have at the end; obr( year number). This is roughly similar to the M designation, but also identifies when the upgrade package was introduced to the proceeding variant ( note, obr designation means it’s a different upgrade then an M designation, if both are present).
So T-34 really means we are actually whitnessing time travel back to the 1930's... They are obviously going to do well against DU and Sabot rounds.... 2 kills one shot?
So T-34 really means we are actually whitnessing time travel back to the 1930’s
Yes, I gather that the T-34 was a world-class tank back in 1942. It was apparently replaced by the T-54 starting in the late 1940s. Modern NATO tanks or anti-tank missiles would utterly destroy them.
With the muzzle velocity of modern tank guns practise rounds would be sufficient to pass through a T54, save some costs too.
save some costs too.
any modern missile is going to cost more than the tank it's destroying.... missile fodder. It's also worth noting that tank on tank engagement has been relatively rare so far in the conflict.
any modern missile is going to cost more than the tank it’s destroying
Practise apfsds rounds are made from steel, significantly cheaper than a DU tipped tungsten round.
The T-34 wasn't an particularly brilliant tank, even in 1942.
Are they just to be used as decoys to soak up Ukrainian ammo? F All use for much else.
any modern missile is going to cost more than the tank it’s destroying…. missile fodder.
That's not true. Even a T72 costs about $500,000, not sure what the upgrades cost?
A Javelin costs about $200,000 per missile, NLAW about £25,000.
An Abrams is something like $8 million.
Although a T54 can't be worth much? Some have been upgraded with modern targeting systems that will probably cost more than a NLAW.
As others have pointed out on twitter, is it time to start supplying Ukraine with Leopard 1s and other obsolete tanks, seeing as they will still be more modern than what Russia is fielding?
supplying Ukraine with Leopard 1s
Haven't they already supplied some?
martinhutch Full Member
Are they just to be used as decoys to soak up Ukrainian ammo? F All use for much else.
In many cases if one side in a fight has a tank and the other side does not then that tank will be consequential, even if it's as obsolete as a T-54.
If the opposing side has any anti-tank missiles then that will change the balance obviously but it's still probably better to have an out of date bulletproof vehicle capable of lobbing explosive shells around than to not have one.
That’s not true.
i was talking about t54/t55's
Will the old T54/55 tanks guns do much to modern armour at all?
Obviously anyone on the ground / building / without armour is going to be vulnerable. 🙁
Haven’t they already supplied some?
Have they? I thought it was only Leopard 2s?
Have they? I thought it was only Leopard 2s?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/03/ukraine-germany-leopard-1-battle-tank-exports
matt_outandabout Full Member
Will the old T54/55 tanks guns do much to modern armour at all?
They might be able to do some damage to some modern tanks if they hit their rears or sides.
But they'll probably still make a mess of a whole bunch of lighter AFVs, such as BMPs. Leopard 1s were also pretty lightly armoured too, IIRC.
Ah, fair enough, only 29 but a good start! I'm guessing there's loads of those around, let's start shipping them in by the bucket load!
Well, I for one never knew that the Leopard 1 was designed by Porsche!
I now have images of them being crewed by trained battalions of hedge fund managers as they go into battle.
Not a bad idea actually.😉
Will the old T54/55 tanks guns do much to modern armour at all?
ChrisL+1
Russia has very few tank guns capable of penetrating the front of a modern western MBT. Better guns as fitted to the T14 could be retro-fitted to T72 and T90 tanks, but up to a couple of years ago this hadn't been evidenced. I don't know if any have been found in Ukraine.
The other factor is that a western MBT can fire successfully sooner, i.e. at longer range, than a Russian MBT can because the sighting and stabilisation systems are so much better and, crucially, Russian armour is much weaker.
Western MBTs are often faster in reverse than Russian MBTs and can present their better-armoured front while making reasonable speed
Russian MBTs rely on add-on Explosive Reactive Armour (ERA) and Non-Explosive Reactive Armour (NERA) to bolster their base armour, but once it's used it's gone. Western MBTs use this much less because the base armour is so much better, but you'll sometimes see it on the sides. The new Challenger 3 will use add-on armour modules as do other Western MBTs.
More importantly, are the Russian tanks fitted with BV's?!
More importantly, are the Russian tanks fitted with BV’s?!
Nope, one of the many reasons their morale is so low. 😉 Even our trucks have them!
Mirage 2000 training
https://www.lefigaro.fr/international/la-france-forme-des-pilotes-ukrainiens-sur-des-mirage-20230322
For more than a month and a half, about thirty of them have been receiving accelerated training on French fighter-bombers at the air bases of Mont-de-Marsan and Nancy. According to the Ministry of Defence, the training of the pilots themselves would not have started, only that of “air military personnel"
Both of the above are a bit optimistic, really.
The T54's are likely being moved internally, just because someone has photographed them doesn't mean they're going to the Frontline
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1638699790665146368#r
The story about mirage training is already denied
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1638615545468846080#m
re t55/54's could be going to training units perhaps.
The story about mirage training is already denied
The denial I saw related to actual pilot training, not necessarily training full stop on the 2000. (Quite what that means Im not sure)
Which doesn't actually contradict the French report.
Maybe its closer to a Ukrainian team assessing the platform. Which makes sense to a degree as it in process of being retired for Rafales.
Shit.
Just saw a short segment on BBC with an embedded reporter and cameraman on the front line near bakhmut.
The whole segment is on BBC News at 6 tonight.
And they mean the front line. 2 shells from a tank landing a matter of metres away. Terrifying just to watch. The reporter was understandably crapping himself.
The area around them, obviously once woodland, now turned to matchsticks.
Absolute hell. Terrifying.
They could be stripping those older T54 for salvageable parts.
As im not actually a Russian tank mechanic I don't know how many parts would be useful.
Either to keep T72 vintages in action, or make up a small force of working hulls with spares packages
Or Wang them out as mine fodder with minimalist crews from prisons
Ryan McBeth reckons they might be used as mobile artillery guns
Shit.
Just saw a short segment on BBC with an embedded reporter and cameraman on the front line near bakhmut.
The whole segment is on BBC News at 6 tonight.And they mean the front line. 2 shells from a tank landing a matter of metres away. Terrifying just to watch. The reporter was understandably crapping himself.
The area around them, obviously once woodland, now turned to matchsticks.
Absolute hell. Terrifying.
BBC News - Ukraine war: The front line where Russian eyes are always watching
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65028217
Has to be said, the Hungarian government is a bit, well, full of sh*t heads.
Hungary says it would not arrest Putin if he entered the country.
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/23/europe/hungary-icc-warrant-putin-intl/index.html
The article doesn't explain that PM Orban is keen on the pre-WW1 boundaries of Greater Hungary, parts of which are occupied by modern-day Ukraine and Romania.
Hungary has long been concerned about Hungarian minorities in Ukraine, not helped by Ukrainian laws to reduce Russian influence (language, education, etc), but which affected other non-Ukrainian cultures.
PM Orban has also used vetoes in the EU and NATO to court his right-wing voters
Has to be said, the Hungarian government is a bit, well, full of sh*t heads
It very much is
So now our favourite, accidental death defying, ex insurgent leader has released a video directly criticising Putin himself and calling him soft and ineffective. Notwithstanding that Girkin’s odds of seeing out the month must have shortened considerably, it’s interesting that the ire is now starting to be directed directly at Vlad himself.
It’s probably not too much of a stretch to think that there are those in the Kremlin who are actively thinking about life post Ukraine and (probably) post Putin. One can assume that Girkin is a) still alive and b) able to post this kind of thing because he’s got some pretty influential protectors.
Still, he’ll probably be avoiding any buildings other than bungalows, as will Vlad I suspect.
If the Ukrainians do mount a successful counter offensive and make large gains quite quickly, I suspect things will hot up very quickly back in Russia..
Using a t55 as a spg does not seem the best idea.
SPG, mobile artillery will sit much further back from the front line. Will fire onto either grid boxes or walked onto a specific target by an observer.
Firing in a large arc with the barrel well elevated.
Even old tanks are front line units with flat trajectory weapons, you more or less point the gun at the target and pow, obviously over 1/2 mile plus you need to add offset as the round will be affected by gravity.
Maybe its the theory that any tank is better than no tank, but even a modern rpg will probably punch through older plate.
Plus the top will be very susceptible to pop up rocket and drone dropped munitions as neither of those existed 50 years ago so why engineer in something unnecessary, at the time
Not what you'd normally call a Self Propelled Gun, but perhaps useful as a gun which is self propelled, but without the capital letters? They'd be bugger all use against a modern tank but perhaps useful to relieve their modern tanks from other roles, to do infantry support etc.
Having said that, that goes back to logistics again- the tanks still need fuel and ammunition, the crew still need fed, they still tie up transport resources and all that other good stuff that the russians don't have enough of and it seems would still suck at even if they did. I can definitely imagine that even very old kit can fulfil a useful role if deployed cleverly, but that seems to be a scarce resource too...
Maybe from a russian point of view just taking a hit that would otherwise have been a more modern tank is reason enough, and they're being treated as a completely disposable asset that'd just be scrapped otherwise when they get round to it. Or, maybe it's all hyped up nonsense and they're just moving some stuff around but it does seem a weird time for it.
Using a t55 as a spg does not seem the best idea.
Especially given that later Russian tanks have better guns. The conventional wisdom a year ago was that Russia had untold thousands of old Soviet era tanks in storage. Even if these T55s are just intended for training or second line duty, it means that Russia can't mobilize the huge numbers of more modern tanks they have in storage. Let's face it, if you had to choose between pulling a T72 out of storage or a T55, you'd choose the T72.
Two theories:
1. The newer tanks in storage have been stripped for parts (probably stolen and sold on the black market).
2. The older tanks are lower tech and are easier to get running after decades rusting in a field.
3. Yet another facet to the information war for the home crowd. Train-loads of Russian military might steaming to nowhere in a video on Vladimir Solovyov's Russian TV show
See also tactical nukes to be based in Belarus, soldiers and AA missile defences based in Belarus, announcements of massive increases in military manufacturing, etc.
4. Ignore 3 🙂 I've just seen video of ZIS and ZIL WW2-era trucks transporting kit in the dark
BBC are describing Belarus as an occupied country.
I think Belarus will be fully absorbed sooner or later.
From CNN.
German Leopard 2 tanks have been delivered to Ukraine, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Monday. Ukraine also said it received British Challenger main battle tanks.
I bet the Russians will be chomping at the bit to display a burnt out western tank for propaganda purposes. Hopefully each one lost takes out a good amount of Russian stuff before that happens though.
Unfortunately, while Russia doesn't have many tank guns capable of penetrating Western armour, they do have capable missile systems.
Tank-on-tank hasn't been a big feature in this war as far as I can see but tactically Ukraine has been far better and their western weapons will hopefully keep Russia at arms-length while advancing.
The biggest problem is tank numbers; the US deployed 1900 M1A1 Abrams to Iraq for Desert Storm while Ukraine has only a few dozen western MBTs
CR2 will continue to chalk up T series K-Kills once again. Noice.
Bonkers to think this will be the second conflict for CR2 up against similar armour and a first for Leopard2.
Ironically, taking on waves of T-72's whilst heavily outnumbered us exactly what the Chally 2 was designed for back in the 80's, hence why its so well armoured.
Whilst I'm not going to pretend they will be invulnerable vs more advanced Russian missiles or mines, they've proven highly resilient against older tanks and basic RPGs.
Ditto HESH rounds, they won't do much against the very latest T-90ms or the semi-mythical T-14 but they will absolutely ruin anything older or lighter.
Ditto HESH rounds, they won’t do much against the very latest T-90ms or the semi-mythical T-14 but they will absolutely ruin anything older or lighter
True, but they will certainly give the crew a headache.
In a further sign that Moscow was unhappy with the state of the fighting, Russian media on Sunday reported the defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, had sacked the commander of its eastern military district, Lt Gen Rustam Muradov.
Russian rearranging the deckchairs again. This from an article in the Grauniad about an assault detachment made up of experienced soldiers who had to bribe commanders not to go to the front and those who did end up there where shot if they tried to retreat.
If (when) the UA attack in force, I can envisage a scenario whereby the Russians collapse like a house of cards..
If (when) the UA attack in force, I can envisage a scenario whereby the Russians collapse like a house of cards..
Have we not been wishing this for a year now?
Sadly it feels like the sheer numbers of Russians with various things that go bang are able to just slow and hold up any advance.
I do agree that it seems as though many Ukrainian personnel have been trained outside of the country over the winter, and they are now returning to some shiny new kit. I also agree that as the weather improves the Ukraine forces will go on an offensive - and we have had a few weeks of slowly pushing towards getting rid of some infrastructure or forcing it to be more dispersed or less accessible in preparation for an offensive move.
But sadly the last year has shown that Russia is dangerous and will fight back.
Interesting points Matt. However we saw what the UA is capable of (and to a lesser extent what the RA is incapable of) in Kharkiv and Kherson in the Autumn. Lots of scepticism prior to those counterattacks iirc..
Since then the UA have got stronger. More and better weapons, better trained men (and women) and the Russians have got weaker. Less men, morale through the floor, forced to reintroduce weapons and machinery that was out of date in the 80s, let alone now.
The UA have happily rope-a-doped the RA around Bakhmut, happy with a ratio of 6-7 RA killed for every UA. The Russian leadership in the Kremlin are increasingly fighting amongst themselves / jockeying for power once this all collapses. All it takes is a few to buckle for it to become a rout. If the UA attack with overwhelming force in one area and break through behind RA lines, I can see them surrendering in droves whilst the officer class commandeer the fastest cars they can to get safely back across the border.
At least I hope so. I think the myth of the inexhaustible RA is starting to be exposed. No point in having lots of men if they have rubbish weapons, tactics and leadership and don’t want to fight..
The UA have happily rope-a-doped the RA around Bakhmut, happy with a ratio of 6-7 RA killed for every UA.
Blimey, this is a strange way to describe an absolutely desperate situation for the Ukrainians fighting to liberate their own country. I don't think happy will be an emotion anyone from the president down will have felt for the last 15 months or so.
thats exactly what I thought, unfortunately phraseology, you know what he means though
strategically it makes sense to hold (if you believe the statistics we are fed by the media)
I don’t think happy will be an emotion anyone from the president down will have felt for the last 15 months or so.
You'd be surprised the boost in morale that fighting troops get from routing their foe. It may be a desperate situation but the blokes doing the fighting will have moments to smile about and be happy, when you're in those situations you look for them.
Yeah, maybe an unfortunate choice of phrase. But the point still holds. Whilst the UA have been re supplying and re training their guys, they will see the tactical and strategic advantage of letting the Russians expend countless thousands of troops, hundreds of fighting vehicles and what little morale they still have, breaking themselves on dug in, motivated, well supported troops, to try and take a town of little strategic value.
Come the Spring the Russians will be tens of thousands troops worse off, will have significantly less armour, guns and ammunition than they otherwise would have and will have an army who increasingly want to be anywhere but there, and are increasingly unafraid to express that.
This is an existential situation for the Ukrainians. Given what they’re facing, they probably are happy that the Russians are to an extent doing their job for them.
And as RM says above (who I suspect knows a lot more about this kind of thing than most of us), the guys on the ground will be getting a morale boost watching the Russians repeatedly crashing into a brick wall.
Anyway, it’s all moot right now. Other than the RA attempt to take Bakhmut at all costs will in future be studied as one of the most pointedly stupid and futile offensive actions in the history of warfare!
Have we not been wishing this for a year now?
Whilst I agree with much of the pro-Ukraine sentiment expressed above I do feel that realistically the Ukrainians have one big chance to decisively win this war and their recent caution is well warranted.
If they are unable to break through in 2023 this will grind down into a stalemate and eventually they will be dragged to the negotiating table as the alliance behind them starts to fracture and Putin will probably end up keeping much of what he's stolen.
They have the kit and the troops to make one.. big.. push... and if it works then it will have a genuine chance to collapse the Russian war effort, if it fails then best case scenario Putin keeps a large chunk of their country, worst case.. who knows?
Hence why we didn't see a Winter Assault (as I fully expected to see) from them, they're keeping everything in reserve including most of their new NATO Kit, for example; the Bradley IFVs have been in theatre for a while now, has anyone seen any combat footage of them yet from Ukraine yet? I haven't.
Ukraine are using the horrendous carnage in Bahkmut to keep Russia's best units occupied and wear them down whilst they patiently get their ducks in a row for the offensive.
They have one shot, they can't afford for it not to work, so they're taking their sweet time. Grim though that may be for the defenders in the East in the meantime.
Just to be contrarian, i dont think well see one big push, nor do I think western support will falter significantly if the war isnt concluded in 2023.
My guess is that there was no winter offensive as the UA know it would of stopped come the Spring thaw. They have made a strategic decision to attrite their enemy over the Winter at Bakhmut. There was talk of a withdrawal and then it appears that a different strategy was chosen.
From my armchair General position, I would expect to see an UA offensive after the mud has gone.
I don't think the ground froze hard enough or long enough to support a sustained Winter offensive.
Anyway Mike Martin says:
https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1637405116075524098
The UA must be pretty exhausted by now, even with unit rotations. Whilst I hope they do make a decisive counter-attack to Melitopol and sever the land bridge the RA has to Crimea the reality is it won't just take a lot of resources to conduct the attack but also a lot hold it. That probably means redeploying reserves from other fronts which is risky. The RA is definitely weakened but they're still able to conduct local attacks (and have had some successes, albeit less frequently than there losses).
Even if they were successful in cutting the RA land bridge I doubt it would be enough for Putin to sue for peace and if HIMARS starts wiping out RA presence in Crimea then there must be a good chance Putin will escalate somehow but it's unlikely it would trigger a NATO intervention so difficult to see how a UA attack would be decisive enough to end the war.
Even if they were successful in cutting the RA land bridge I doubt it would be enough for Putin to sue for peace
Putin is never going to sue for peace. Ukraine might be able to expel Russia from Ukrainian territory but they cannot invade and conquer Russia. As long as Putin is in power, he will keep launching attacks on Ukraine.