These things can change surprisingly fast. There are people on the internet speculating that Russia might not actually be the world’s number 2 military.
As an armchair strategist I only ever speculate 🙂
Fact remains that Ukraine has had a full five-years of UK training (COVID slowed it down, should have been seven), plus participation in NATO exercises. They also build Russian MBTs and other armoured vehicles, engines, etc.
Georgia is behind that curve with participation in NATO exercises plus additional NATO support in 2022 (another example of Russia's ambitions increasing NATO's participation in the region).
Armenia, Azerbaijan and Tajikistan don't get additional NATO support although they do have involvement with NATO and Azerbaijan and Georgia have been involved in NATO peace-keeping missions. NATO is steering clear of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Kazakhstan participates in NATO exercises and has wider involvement in humanitarian crises.
Balance that against a Russia with massive natural resources, 80% of its air force intact, etc. then it's reasonable speculation that they don’t have economies and militaries to stand up to Russia. But who knows?
Balance that against a Russia with massive natural resources, 80% of its air force intact, etc.
Having natural resources isn't much use in itself. You need the industrial and technological base to turn those resources into modern weapons. Russia is heavily dependent on western countries for technology. They might be able to produce steel and weld it into tank hulls, but those tanks need engines and electronic systems, etc.
The Russian air force has played little role in the war. That's because they lack precision guided missiles. Without those, you have to fly a $50 million dollar aircraft low enough to drop unguided bombs or rockets. That makes them very vulnerable to lightweight anti-aircraft missiles. The Russian air force may have hundreds of aircraft, but if they tried to actually use them, they would suffer the same fate as their tanks.
On paper, Russia has a very impressive quantity of military equipment. In reality, they seem to have very little equipment that is much use on a modern battlefield and they don't have an economy capable of producing large quantities of advanced weapons.
Without those, you have to fly a $50 million dollar aircraft low enough to drop unguided bombs or rockets
Or you drop tonnes from a big old bomber
...they don’t have an economy capable of producing large quantities of advanced weapons
I'd agree, but there are plenty of places where they can get materiel if they can organise it through third parties. They were getting lots of western materiel until sanctions tightened in 2022 and they're getting drones and missiles now.
It's all speculation though, and here's another bit...
Facts: Russian attacks on Ukrainian air defence (AD) systems have increased. Russia is increasing its air sorties back to their Summer 2022 level (before the tide of this war changed). Ukrainian AD has used lots of munitions against drone and missile attacks. Russia has redeployed arctic AD systems to Ukraine, although two have been destroyed already
ISW speculation: It won't be an extended air campaign but fighter aircraft will support their ground offensive.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates
Armchair speculation: Russia won't have 80% of its air force intact for much longer
Noticed John Simpson reporting from Ukraine on the news last night. His books are a fascinating read and he seems to have been at turning points in recent history during his career. Next week its 1 year of the invasion, so between him and Steve Rosenburg I'm sure they will be having a few things to comment on.
Its BBC centric I know but Jeremy Bowen, Lyse Doucet and Orla Guerin all need a mention here too. Been places, seen things, told stories.
Jeremy Bowen, Lyse Doucet and Orla Guerin
The three horsemen of the apocalypse. If they turn up on your manor, you know you're in deep effluent!
I ignore the BBC bashers, their war correspondents and front line coverage are first class.
+1 on the BBC war coverage. I find some of the longer radio pieces very good.
Or you drop tonnes from a big old bomber
Which are extremely easy to shoot down. That's why Russia isn't using them to bomb Ukraine with unguided bombs.
there are plenty of places where they can get materiel if they can organise it through third parties.
"If" is doing a lot of work in that sentence. Beyond that, it's strange to argue that Russia is powerful because they have vast natural resources, then to turn around and say that they might be able to import the technology they need by evading sanctions. If they have to evade sanction in order to build weapons, their economy is not capable of sustaining a modern high-tech military.
There seems to be an increasing consensus amongst analysts that Russias 'big push' has already begun.
If that really is the case then they really may be stuffed. The gains they're making are very limited and they are facing stiff resistance everywhere.
I'm seeing reports of 800+ daily casualties, which is mind boggling.
Do they have something up their sleeves? Maybe.
Right now it looks like the need to have something to show back home for the 1 year anniversary and to make a move before all the new Western kit arrives seems to have lead to it all going off rather half-cocked.
I’m seeing reports of 800+ daily casualties, which is mind boggling
My understanding is that they lost 10,000 soldiers in 10 years of fighting in Afghanistan, but have lost ~100,000 in 1 year of fighting in Ukraine.
My understanding is that they lost 10,000 soldiers in 10 years of fighting in Afghanistan, but have lost ~100,000 in 1 year of fighting in Ukraine.
The difference between fighting lightly armed insurgents with artillery, aviation and armour, and a peer to peer (or near peer) war.
I suspect another difference is that the USSR had a very strong armaments industry and their military was relatively well-trained and equipped. Russia now has a Potemkin army. The budget is siphoned off at every level and their training exercises just consist of getting guys to stand next to a tank or missile launcher so the colonel can take a photo to submit to the general to prove that the training was done. FFS, the soldiers who invaded Ukraine last year took their dress uniforms because they thought they were going to hold parades in front of welcoming Ukrainian crowds.
FFS, the soldiers who invaded Ukraine last year took their dress uniforms because they thought they were going to hold parades in front of welcoming Ukrainian crowds.
That aspect was less a military failure, but more a failure of the FSB and SVR. Either a catastrophic failure by intelligence agencies to understand the real situation in Ukraine, or a failure (due to fear) to communicate it to the Kremlin.
the USSR had a very strong armaments industry
Was a sizeable chunk of it not in Ukraine/other Vassal states and never got replaced when the USSR broke up?
Which are extremely easy to shoot down. That’s why Russia isn’t using them to bomb Ukraine with unguided bombs
I think that you're confusing a relatively well-prepared Ukraine with the likes of Armenia, which depends on Russia for assistance with conflict with Azerbaijan.
The original discussion was states other than Ukraine joining forces, eg Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, which probably won't happen because of existing tensions.
Individual much smaller economies and militaries using the lightweight anti-aircraft missiles that you referred to won't get near a bomber at altitude
My understanding is that they lost 10,000 soldiers in 10 years of fighting in Afghanistan, but have lost ~100,000 in 1 year of fighting in Ukraine.
On Jan 20th the ISW estimated that Russia had lost 188,000 dead and wounded, at the current rate they will far exceed 200K by the one year anniversary.
Russia have, in one year lost far more soldiers than the USA has lost in every war or engagement they've been involved in since WW2, Korea, Vietnam, Both Gulf Wars etc and the USA has over twice the population of Russia.
It's a mind blowing waste of human potential, all for one old man's ego.
It's also why this was cannot realistically continue in this manner for years and years, the level of intensity is just so far above and beyond what is sustainable, Either things will quieten down into a stalemate or it will be resolved this year, one way or another.
Thing is, both sides have strong political and military incentives to push for a swift resolution and neither see it as in their interests to let the current situation ossify so, as things stand my money is on the latter.
The three horsemen of the apocalypse. If they turn up on your manor, you know you’re in deep effluent!
I ignore the BBC bashers, their war correspondents and front line coverage are first class.
If Kate Adie arrives too, shit gets real!
Leave me out of this, thanks.
Haha!
https://www.ft.com/content/d52bcb07-ba5f-4ffd-a919-53bcf9085690
https://twitter.com/FreeUkraine91/status/1626602869918150662?t=Ln6wph9iFZByZ3pI0U0xuw&s=19
Russia have, in one year lost far more soldiers than the USA has lost in every war or engagement they’ve been involved in since WW2, Korea, Vietnam, Both Gulf Wars etc and the USA has over twice the population of Russia.
As a slight sideways question - what impact will losing so many men do to a country long term? That's a huge loss of labour, creativity and GDP creation surely? (Plus of course the many more who have been injured and those who left the country).
Russia's population is 143 million, losses of 143 thousand is 0.1%
Compare that to Germany in WW1 = 4% or Poland in WW2 = 17%.
That's not to say there won't be an impact but countries have survived worse.
I'm guessing Russia is facing an aging population though, so the deaths/ fleeing of a young Henderson of men of likely to be amplified?
Somewhat yes but their demographic trap is pretty much a geological force at this point, little manmade efforts struggle to match that constant maths.
losses of 143 thousand is 0.1%
...so far
One thing to note is that the partial mobilisation recruited disproportionately from the ethinic minority areas of Russia like Dagestan etc, which would help Putin’s ongoing campaign to 'homogenise' (read ethnically cleanse) Russia
It's conservatively estimated that half a million young men have left Russia to avoid conscription.
These have been disproportionately the best and brightest of their generation so the long term impact on Russian society will be huge.
These Peter Zeihan videos help explain the Russian demographic time bomb. Their population might be 143 million, but it's disproportionately old with a massive drop off in young people coming through. It's arguably what's driving the war, a last gasp attempt to expand their empire and build a defensible buffer, whilst they still have the troops to do it. In future they won't. So the exodus of young men and battlefield losses is going to cripple them going forward, especially if they don't 'win' in Ukraine. The first vid is 11 months old and does a good job of explaining the background, the second is a day old and brings it up to date.
so the long term impact on Russian society will be huge.
I for one am finding it quite hard to be upset about this. Tried briefly, and failed.
a young Henderson of men
A what?
I for one am finding it quite hard to be upset about this. Tried briefly, and failed.
Of course I didn't ask the same of Ukraine. The dead, injured, mental health impacts are just ongoing for a generation. I suspect that Ukraine will have people return and more investment into it's agriculture and industry again.
As long as they boot the Russians out. I dont know for certain, but would imagine the losses and horror will be easier to accept on the back of a victory.
Yes, we lost lots of men, but we won, the rest of the world supported us, our own people were behind us.
We cam rebuild our lives and country better than before in a stronger, safer country.
All of which is pretty much the opposite of what the Russian side will be feeling.
National identity is often forged by wars like this. For better or worse, the U.S. is shaped by the War of Independence, Israel is shaped by being born out of territorial conflict, North Korea and South Korea by the Korean War, etc. For Ukraine, just surviving as a nation will forge a new national identity as a democratic country that looks to the West rather than to Russia. This is exactly the opposite of what Putin hoped to achieve, which is why he is so determined to wipe Ukraine from the map.
One to feed the rumour mill...
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1626671319264681986?t=B_eHuNFz_OWeosOujUmOHA&s=19
.
One to feed the rumour mill…
Milky drink and Sudafed - that should sort him out.
My legs do that. Side effect of medication.
Hey it was Friday. Vlad was just thinking about the moves he was going to make at the disco that evening
CNN reporting he hardly uses his private jet anymore, instead preferring his armoured train to travel about as he is paranoid about it getting shot down/ a bomb placed upon it.
Some definite echoes with Hitler there and his armoured train.
As a slight sideways question – what impact will losing so many men do to a country long term? That’s a huge loss of labour, creativity and GDP creation surely? (Plus of course the many more who have been injured and those who left the country).
^This is probably the most important question in this thread thus far. FT from April 2022
Thanks for re-sharing that, I’d seen it before but I’d forgotten quite a bit since.
It’s not that a demographics crisis is a uniquely Russian thing, particularly in Europe. But the impact of the war on those aged to have children in the Russian Federation combined with what’s going to be some long term difficulties in attracting migrants (who TF is going to emigrate to a country willing to sacrifice 100s thousands of its own for small slices of its neighbours?) is fairly unique.
Although so long as that’s disproportionately amongst non ethically Russian citizens Moscow doesn’t seem to care.
Few links related to net migration
A pre war claim that 5 million emigrated during Putins rule, mostly the young and educated.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/10/13/5-million-russian-citizens-left-russia-under-putin-a75246
Wiki claims (with sources) that 900k have emigrated during the timeline of the war to October last year
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_emigration_following_the_2022_invasion_of_Ukraine
With a significant number “likely” of the rich in that emigration
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/13/more-than-15000-millionaires-expected-to-leave-russia-in-2022
Whom have been labelled as potential traitors and scum by Putin
https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-warns-russia-against-pro-western-traitors-scum-2022-03-16/
Did the usa actually manage to redirect the cargo ship with thousands of rounds of ammunition and rifles that were headed for Yemen?
I know that the French and US stopped the boatload of arms and there was talk in the news that they were heading foe Ukraine
But no follow up afaik
Putin has “lost the energy war”? Getting hard to keep count of all the wars Putin has “lost”. Meanwhile in real life …
Meanwhile in real life …
In real life, his army is in tatters and is taking horrific losses. They are so desperate that they are sending squads of conscripts out against dug-in Ukrainian positions. Their job is to plant flags as they go. When they inevitably get killed, the flags give the Russian's an idea of where the Ukrainian positions are so they can then try to hit them with artillery. They have to do this because they don't have enough ammunition to keep up their earlier tactic of just throwing thousands of tonnes of artillery shells at the area, and they don't have effective spotter drones to locate the Ukrainians from the air. Even when the suicide squads do find Ukrainian positions, the Russian often don't even have enough ammunition to fire an artillery barrage, so the are just sending guys out to die for no reason whatsoever.
Is there much to worry about here?
IMHO this is a new development because while China would benefit from a weakened Russia in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) a severely weakened Russian military and economy won't help the SCO primary purpose of national security for its members.
There's been ample opportunity for China to export materiel already and it couldn't be policed easily because the two countries share a 4000km+ land border.
I guess that the question should be is this new or an acceleration?
Another window accident
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/marina-yankina-russia-death-putin-b2283686.html
Finance Director for the western military district
Is there much to worry about here?
I would say yes
Depends why he is saying it, really. If there is a genuine possibility that China will start supplying Russia with arms then, yes, the war will be immeasurably prolonged. If, however, it is just geopolitical posturing, then, no, not so much. Maybe.
from china's perspective I'd think they would stand to loose far more by supporting Russia overtly. that said so much of what we rely on is made in China now would massive sanctions be a reality?
seems a bit like US posturing after the balloon thingy presumably to enable them to justify any retaliation. seems very daft to be picking more fights at this time.
honestly I just don't know why people can't be happy with what they have and work together to make the most of it. imagine how much further we would be ahead if we stopped killing each other and wasting lives and resources
so much of what we rely on is made in China now would massive sanctions be a reality?
Lots of companies moving production out of China due to stability/sanctions concerns, eg my employer (probably fairly small beer but not that small).
What do we think chinas peace deal will be on the 24th? Let Russia annex all of the states it liberated or they supply weapons? That would stop the war? Russia would get most of what it wants and the ‘west’ accept the compromise rather than risk years of pain. High stakes by China?
I would previously have said that China was far too canny to throw their lot in with Russia, but the current guy in charge has been a departure from the norm in many ways, so who knows
What do we think chinas peace deal will be on the 24th? Let Russia annex all of the states it liberated
The article I read said that China had explicitly said that countries need to respect each others' borders.
Is there much to worry about here?
I don't think so as far as Ukraine goes, maybe with regards to U.S-China relations. This is the U.S. sending a message to China that they are watching and will be displeased if China openly supplies Russia with weapons. They will have already sent that message through diplomatic backchannels. The only interesting thing here is that they are saying it publicly. That will be deliberate - the U.S. is sending a message that their patience with China's behaviour is wearing thin. However, the message may be intended more for American voters then for Chinese leaders.
Lots of companies moving production out of China due to stability/sanctions concerns, eg my employer (probably fairly small beer but not that small).
Need to be a fair bit, "As reported by WTO in 2023, exports of goods in 2021 were USD 3,363.8 billion and imports USD 2,688.6 billion, while exports and imports of services in 2021 reached USD 390.6 billion and USD 438 billion respectively. China reported an overall 40% increase in exports and 16% decrease in imports for 2021
munkyboy
Free Member
What do we think chinas peace deal will be on the 24th?
I think it's mostly irrelevant as it will inevitably be based upon Russia at a minimum holding onto the land and peoples gained so far in its conquest. Ukraine has made it clear from the start they will never agree to that.
"Peace" as far as China is concerned is just about allowing Russia to claim a calamitous campaign as a victory. To China, isn't the invasion of Ukraine a perfect analogue of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan after all? Taiwan isn't a real country is it, just a province of China really?
China's portrayal of the invasion of Ukraine to its domestic audience is stunningly different to the noises it makes on the world stage. If Russia loses in Ukraine then China loses credibility in its claim to Taiwan amongst its own populous.
Xi is given far too much credit these days for playing an amazing 4D chess game when in fact he seems to have the same weaknesses of other dictators.
He fully believed Putin would be handed a fast victory in Ukraine. If that had played out as he expected I suspect the world would now be awaiting the imminent Chinese invasion of Taiwan and a nuclear confrontation a very real possibility. Even a conventional war over Taiwan would make the terrible loss of life in Ukraine seem trivial in comparison.
Is there much to worry about here?
I don't know that there's an answer to this. It's clear that China will only act to China's overall benefit and the SCO-thing that I mentioned ^^ is one small facet
Western materiel production and supply is ramping up in response to Russia's continued aggression, does China really want production to continue to accelerate by prolonging war while siding with a country that's already been branded as committing war crimes on a massive scale?
China will have seen US capability in Ukraine for a fraction of the US defence budget and they'll have weighed up western sanctions and our ability, albeit painful, to pivot away from cheap supply
No, but yes, but...
China reported an overall 40% increase in exports and 16% decrease in imports for 2021
If that’s a 40% increase from 2020 isn’t that just statistical abuse?
Not saying there is a meaningful change from the subject you was responding too. Just wanting some context.
Let Russia annex all of the states it liberated or supply weapons
Hang on.... liberated?
Invaded, Shirley....
Yes, invaded. And stop calling me Shirley...
Anyone heard anything concrete about this?
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1627588866046676992?t=o0zWup0OMb0eU-30kr6B1w&s=19
Also claims of large scale road closure and "motorcades" in Kyiv.
Nothing on "normal" channels about it, twitter thread suggests several possibles, Biden, Harris, italian pm, israel pm
Certainly a significant visit. I hope no one drops a missle on them or it is ww3
edit, just seen your next post. wow one hell of a big risk and show of support. never thought it would happen
I bet the Secret Service are having kittens. All those heavily armed soldiers in close proximity to their Principle.
Flightradar shows 2 USAF Awacs jets currently circling right on the Poland-Ukraine border. I'm guessing that there are a LOT of NATO combat aircraft currently on flying around on full alert in Poland too with their transponders off.
I would love to see the US diplomatic communications to Russia this morning. Probably something along the lines of "Don't. Even. Think. About. It."
Amazing documentary on Channel 4 last night
https://www.channel4.com/programmes/ukraine-from-above-secrets-from-the-frontline
Trent has another logistics thread for the transport nerds (of which Im one)
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1627471413589286914?t=WLDZaZyLycsboMSiqdnwSw&s=19
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1627611746591440899?t=joftbPbxi3PLwM6wwW9DJw&s=19
Looks like he's definitely there!
Where’s Boris? He must be livid, some upstart ‘Murican going over there and stealing his limelight? 😜
...and Putin is in his armoured train perma circling Russia, Snowpiercer style.lol
There's some serious messaging from Team_Ukraine and allies at the moment. The steady stream of foreign leaders, seen strolling in daylight next to Zelensky, is massively at odds with PooTin's behaviour. Over the next few days I expect even more, in all sorts of ways.
I would suspect the private messages are even stronger.
Of course while this gives succour to the Ukrainian's, Russia will of course frame it very differently.
I would hope that the US warning about China was more for the home crowd & Republican controlled House of Representatives to ensure continued support for Ukraine rather than any specific intelligence.
That is as strong a full commitment message as it is possible to give. Can you imagine how difficult it must have been to arrange and keep secret
I would love to see the US diplomatic communications to Russia this morning. Probably something along the lines of “Don’t. Even. Think. About. It.”
It's noticeable how much Putin and his senior officials have dialed back their nuclear rhetoric since the Summer. Rumor was that some US back channels made it perfectly clear to Putin that him and his family would face direct consequences if he did press the button.
He travelled by train from Poland.
I would love to see the logistics that went into Bidens trip. Some say train (sounds a long trip for a US president to be sat in a train) while others say plane, protected by US fighters (in Ukrainian airspace?). Some are saying he was protected by the Ukrainian forces while others are saying there may of been US troops on the ground in Ukraine to protect him? And apparently they told Moscow about the trip, now I would like to of been a fly on the wall for that call and reply.