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Absolutely disgusted that NATO isn’t imposing a no fly zone over Ukraine though! Shockingly self serving behaviour…
I hate to say it but NATO cannot get involved militarily. Ukraine is not aligned, the gamble is Putin does what he wants there and stops, and no military action is required.
If NATO takes any direct action, WW3 properly starts. It won't be confined to Eastern Europe, it will be us and our kids being bombed.
Putin has very carefully not made threats to any NATO country. He's not that mad yet
Absolutely disgusted that NATO isn’t imposing a no fly zone over Ukraine though! Shockingly self serving behaviour…
How would they enforce that without starting Ww3?
Lukashenko’s is a puppet dictator with a much weaker grip than Putin has over his nation’s population. Should there be protests or unrest there, maybe some of those Russian tanks will be swinging north again to crackdown on Belarussian protesters.
There were a lot of protests the last couple of years, and they were dealt with very very harshly.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_Belarusian_protests
And again, a lot of women going out to fight the good fight, knowing that they would very likely take a baton in the face from a fascist in riot gear.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/14/women-belarus-take-protests-into-their-own-hands
At the end of 2020, the Viasna Human Rights center documented 1,000 testimonies of torture victims ... as well as reports of sexual abuse and rape
Lukashenko is a ****ing ****.
Absolutely disgusted that NATO isn’t imposing a no fly zone over Ukraine though! Shockingly self serving behaviour…
I can think of no quicker and surer way of starting full blown world war 3 than trying to impose a no fly zone over Ukraine
180,000 troops May win the war but you'd need 10 times that to hold the country.
They'll be an insurgency for years.
NATO enforced a no-fly zone in Libya on humanitarian grounds, as I understand, so could technically enforce this over the Ukraine, but arguably would create more problems than it would solve.
fatmountain
Free MemberNATO enforced a no-fly zone in Libya on humanitarian grounds, as I understand, so could technically enforce this over the Ukraine, but arguably would create more problems than it would solve
But NATO would actually have to enforce it, which is going to mean shooting at Russian jets (as there’s not a chance they’ll stay on the ground). So it’s back to WW3 as mentioned above
NATO enforced a no-fly zone in Libya on humanitarian grounds, as I understand, so could technically enforce this over the Ukraine, but arguably would create more problems than it would solve.
I'm not sure there was much to enforce over Libya. Taking on the entire Russian air force is a slightly different ball game. One that might see our own kids being bombed. If we're lucky, just with conventional bombs.
Don't like to say this but I think it will be all over in a few days.
I can think of no quicker and surer way of starting full blown world war 3 than trying to impose a no fly zone over Ukraine
Be under no illusion... WW3 has already started!
NATO or not, somebody else will get involved sooner or later. Putin is, as has been stated repeatedly, a calculated bully. There's only one way to stop bullies! He will overstretch his mark sooner or later, bloodshed will spill over into a neighbouring (NATO member) country, Russian planes will get caught in NATO airspace and be (quite rightly) shot down, and/or one of the other former Soviet Bloc countries that are now NATO member states will begin to feel the squeeze from Putin and Article 5 will be invoked.
The only way that this won't fully escalate is if the rest of the world turns a blind eye to the forced destruction of democracy in Europes 2nd largest country, a nation of 44m citizens, and the total indifference to military or civilian targets that are being employed.
Just remember, that the attacks on 9/11 might have happened on US soil but it wasn't just the US that has been embroiled in a seemingly never ending war on terror ever since...
Don’t like to say this but I think it will be all over in a few days
By Christmas, surely? We’ll remind you of that in 5 years
One things for sure is that this is the start of a conflict that will last, in one form or another, for a very, very long time
Yesterday was just popping the lid off a whole box full of cans of worms
I dont think I’ve seen anything in my lifetime where the law of unintended consequences is more guaranteed to come into full effect
Christ only knows where this is going, but wherever it is, it certainly won’t be over any time soon
Don’t like to say this but I think it will be all over in a few days
Yes and no.
I suspect 'over' in the same way that Iraq and Afghanistan were beaten very quickly. Winning the war is the easy bit
One things for sure is that this is the start of a conflict that will last, in one form or another, for a very long time
You say that, but this is Putins fight, it isn't Russias... We are not dealing with Al Qaeda or ISIS here... This is mostly one mans retribution against what he feels was the wrongful disintegration of the USSR.
There are obvious parallels with Hitler and the outbreak of WW2 here quite sadly. But arguably just as with Nazi Germany Hitler's removal would have resulted in a rudderless ship, you could remove Putin and Russia loses its focus too.
You know that he’s spent decades building an authoritarian, totalitarian state where all dissent is ruthlessly stamped out?
So who’s going to ‘remove’ him?
To avoid unnecessary bloodshed, I propose putin and a chosen Ukrainian politician duke it out ‘mano o Mano’ to decide the fate of their respective nations
I propose the mayor of Kyiv to represent the Ukrainians…
Now that would be a fight well worthy of Ppv.
The most mysterious thing to me is the extreme right wing republicans before the conflict backing Putin. Fox news and Tucker Carlson come to mind.
Like Two Tribes? We really are back in the 80s.
The Russian Armed Forces are one of the world's largest military forces, with around a million active-duty personnel, which is the world's fifth-largest, and at least 2 million reserve personnel.[7][8] It is mandatory for all male citizens aged 18–27 to be drafted for a year of service in the Armed Forces.[9]
As the world's second-most powerful military,[10] the Russian Armed Forces contain the world's largest stockpile of nuclear weapons.[11] It possesses the second-largest fleet of ballistic missile submarines,[12] and is one of only three millitaries operating strategic bombers.[13] The Russian Armed Forces have the world's largest tank forces,[14] and the second-most powerful air force and navy fleet.[15][16] Russia has the world's fourth-highest military expenditure, spending $61.7 billion in 2020.[17]
Source: Wikipedia
Food for thought.
Do they not also have world's largest stock of chemical and biological weapons? Now that is scary.
Caher
Full Member
The most mysterious thing to me is the extreme right wing republicans before the conflict backing Putin. Fox news and Tucker Carlson come to mind.
They are still backing him. Fox news is for sure, anyway. Had a reporter on there earlier interviewing someone and basically insulting the Ukrainian PM for asking Russia not to invade! Suggesting it was somehow feeble basically. What the **** did she expect him to do? She sits thousands of miles away surrounded by the most powerful military in the world. He doesn't have that luxury, nor does his country.
Wonder if she would be donning camo and manning a trench if it came to it?😒
Russia may have the second most powerful air force and navy but the gulf between them and the US is colossal.
That's food for thought.
Just have a look at aircraft carriers as one example.
Long range strategic bombers; B52 anyone?
F35.
Surveillance capability.
To avoid unnecessary bloodshed, I propose putin and a chosen Ukrainian politician duke it out ‘mano o Mano’ to decide the fate of their respective nations
Haha. I remember Tariq Aziz challenging George Bush to a duel before the Iraq war. That might have been the better option...
Usually the way though Frank, the numbers comparison. But that's all most have to compare because the average joe has no insight into the technical, tactical or strategic elements which are often the game changer.
[early90s] When does Saddam Hussein have his tea? [/early90s]
The video of the APC taking out the old.woman in the car is horrific.
Somewhat bemused by all the people horrified at watching unfiltered footage of a war on social media. What were you expecting?
And for those calling for NATO to "do something", careful what you wish for or we'll get the live show.
I dunno Frank, the world's largest military couldn't beat the Tailban and all the aircraft carriers in the world mean nothing if you can level the European continent with the push of a button. Even an average Joe can understand that.
From the Beeb:
In a dramatic late-night appearance, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned in a video statement that the Russians would storm Kyiv in the coming hours.
“This night will be hard, very hard, but morning will come," he said.
“This night the enemy will be using all available means to break our resistance. This night they will launch an assault.
“This night we must persevere. The fate of Ukraine is being decided right now.”
Can you imagine being in that city tonight? Horrific.
Yes, harsh as it may sound we really don't want NATO to get involved. IF they do things will escalate rapidly.
im especially disappointed in India, who knew they would turn out to be such spineless ****ts
Just have a look at aircraft carriers as one example.
Long range strategic bombers; B52 anyone?
Those carriers could end up confined to port once the Russians start attacking them (either by means above or below the surface). I can’t even imagine what would happen in the states if one of them went down
B-52s aren’t going anywhere with a functioning air defence either. They’d be operating stand-off weapons only.
Yes, harsh as it may sound we really don’t want NATO to get involved. IF they do things will escalate rapidly
Putin presently seems so completely hatstand that he genuinely looks like he’d love to massively escalate everything, just for shits and giggles. He looks like a man who just wants to watch the world burn
Latvian politician on newsnight just now.
Georgia 2008 - we, in the baltic states, warned NATO that if nothing was done there will be a repeat. Nothing was done.
Crimea 2014 - we, in the baltic states, warned NATO that if nothing was done there will be a repeat.
Nothing was done.
Belarus 2017/18 - we, in the baltic states, warned NATO that if nothing was done there will be a repeat.
Nothing was done.
Something of a pattern there.
Followed by a direct appeal for more weapons and other military hardware.
Another chance for NATO and the West to get it wrong.
@fatmountain, The loss in Afghanistan wasn't due to kit, troops or tactics, it was due to an utter strategic and political failure to clearly define and execute a mission.
So no, the average joe clearly does not understand that because they jump on whatever easy to follow bandwagon that comes along.
mashr - don't agree but hope we'll never find out which of us us right.
Report, from the Commander of the Ukraine Air Force, that they’ve shot down an IL-76 with its full compliment of paratroopers on board. That would be 100+ personnel
So sad for Ukrainians tonight.
I am beyond hope for our Rouble-influenced Etonian politicians in the UK.
I dream for Olaf Scholz to make a stand (Macron at his shoulder?):
"Putin's agression is enabled by our purchases of his gas and oil. So tonight I am turning off the pipelines and stopping the tankers. Tonight, our democratic cousins in Ukraine are seeking shelter in bunkers and underground stations, with no power or water. Ukraine's fight against Russian agression is not our fight, but the battle against despots and the defence of democracy belongs to all of us. So I am asking you, to turn off all but essential lights, turn down your heating by 2 degrees, put on a coat, maybe a hat. If you can walk or cycle to work, do so. If you can't, make sure you share your car with others. I recognise this will impact some more than others, so I am putting in place a programme, along the lines of our furlough support... etc..."
Take the economic blow to hit them in the wallet basically. If we aren't going to fire bullets (for obvious reasons), it is the least we can do.
I thought Russia had banned all Uk flights? So why am I tracking a uk Boeing 737 out of Moscow tonight heading east??
Not much it seems.
I thought the mission to blow up the Tailban. But what I do I know 🙂
Oh, and another coming into Moscow from the east..?
I was laying in bed lay night thinking about the concept of M.A.D.
It occurs to me that the West believes Putin absolutely would use nukes in a first strike scenario.
It also occurs to me that Putin believes the West would not use nukes, at least not unless he did first.
If that's the case Putin can carry on pretty much doing whatever he likes, in the future perhaps even invading a NATO country. Initially though, Finland, Sweden etc.
If both sides don't believe MAD is a deterrent then it loses its potency.
Report, from the Commander of the Ukraine Air Force, that they’ve shot down an IL-76 with its full compliment of paratroopers on board. That would be 100+ personnel
the thing I take from this piece of news is the shear lack of human value Putin and the Russian military commanders placed on those paratroopers lives - flying over territory swarming with hand held SAMs in a massive noisy lumbering IL76. They were just worthless pawns rather than someone's sons.
@Poopscoop he also has some other stuff in the arsenal that makes people worried. the C&B parts of CBRN.
@RustyNissanPrairie there's some video of a few of the conscript captives stating they though they were going home when it all kicked off this morning. Some didn't know they were in Ukraine until they debussed and got orders.
Poor bastards.
What's occurring to you is occurring to a few of us poopscoop. When Reagan met Gorbachev, he was surprised to discover that the Soviets really believed that the US would make a first strike.
Boot's on the other foot now....
"They were just worthless pawns rather than someone’s sons."
Perhaps he thinks that a few martyrs will stiffen the resolve of the Russian people. You know, like in Afghanistan, or Chechnya.
God only knows how he's spinning Russian casualties in the media. Feel for anybody who has seen the remains of their loved ones all over the Internet. On either side.
If both sides don’t believe MAD is a deterrent then it loses its potency.
MAD was purely about deterring the opposing force from using nuclear weapons especially as a fist strike as opposed to deterring a conventional war.
If anything a conventional war goes against MAD since if you manage to invade my country then I might decide to launch a strike on the basis a)nothing to lose since I have lost already and b)your ability to retaliate with nukes would be weakened since your troops would die as well.
The shooting down of that transport plane has a chilling echo from 2014. From Wikipedia:
"On 14 June 2014, an Ilyushin Il-76 transport aircraft of the 25th Transport Aviation Brigade of the Ukrainian Air Force was shot down by forces of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People's Republic while on approach to land at Luhansk International Airport, Ukraine, during the initial phase of the war in Donbas. The aircraft was carrying troops and equipment from an undisclosed location. All 49 people on board were killed."
For my sins in watching a bit of RT.
I can't see them being allowed to broadcast much longer here or in many other countries.
They are constantly on the edge of defending the indefensible. It's a totally untenable situation that will only get worse as the atrocities of the invasion become more apparent.
They are great at dredging up useful idiots though.
Not as yet. Concentrating on telling us how Ukraine are busy shelling the break away "republics". Guessing the Ukrainian military must have a lot of time on their hands at the moment, boring much else to do...
Oh, lots of vids/ pics of Ukrainian troops being waved at and welcomed, apparently.
Had more enough of this "news" channel for now.
I was thinking while out on my bike earlier.
A lot of the Russian money comes from oil and gas.
The West have not stopped buying Russian oil and gas.
A lot of oil and gas pipelines pass through Ukraine.
.
Would Ukraine destroying them cut off a significant part of Russian income? How long before that begins to bite? And would doing so lose the western good will?
.
If we can't sanction the obvious thing maybe the Ukrainians can do it
.
Quick Google, it is quite extensive https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_gas_transmission_system_of_Ukraine
The video of the APC taking out the old.woman in the car is horrific.
Somewhat bemused by all the people horrified at watching unfiltered footage of a war on social media. What were you expecting?
It was on national news, I saw it earlier today.
Russia has enough money to ride it out for a long while without the need for whatever % of gas comes via Ukraine. I expect some western goodwill would be lost, and for what... is there anything western countries aren't doing, that interfering with the pipeline would kick them into doing? Also if the pipelines are destroyed Ukraine's strategic value decreases while Nord Stream 2 might start looking a bit attractive.
I've been following the cyber side of it which someone mentioned earlier. There is a LOT of potential misinformation flying about, because of course there is.
Screenshots of a credential dump allegedly from a 'hack' of mil dot ru is all over social media. The jury is out on this but it looks to be an old dump. Its first appearance seemingly came from a Twitter account with 400 followers, make of that what you will.
There are claims that that same site has been taken down by hackers. I've verified first-hand that this is untrue, it's simply blocked to browsers outside of Russia.
There's a report that Heathrow is "the victim of a cybercrime attack." I've no way of corroborating this but the airport's official stance is that they've had an unrelated IT glitch. Though of course, whether it has or hasn't is a predictable claim from both parties.
Russia has some of the best state-sponsored hacker teams in the world. I'll just leave that there. IMHO, having China on our side right now would be a Really Good Idea.
China did abstane in the UN vote earlier🤷♂️
I've shortened the URL here because it contains a naughty word, but this is a chilling recording of what happened when a Russian warship rocked up at a Ukraine-owned island a couple of days ago.
Well my internet has been off and on a few times over the last 24 hours, since the invasion began basically. Also couldn't get internet on the phone a couple of times as well.
Must be the weather... (at least that's what BT used to say back in the day)
Going back to why take Chernobyl, a thought crossed my mind. If Russia had to retreat, destroying infrastructure on their way, bridges etc. Would they be mad enough to destroy Chernobyl to cause a disaster?
Not sure I'd want to be chucking missiles near there just in case I missed the target.
Probably just a good sound bite that they can claim an early success with.
For Russia the invasion will be the easy bit. What comes next won't be.
I assume the plan will be to install a pro-Russia puppet Government, ignored by the West and reliant on Kremlin money. Except they won't be able to hold any elections, there will be mass protests and continued fighting. Are they going to intern all the Ukrainian solders they capture, because they'll just pick their arms back up if freed. Russian soldiers will never safety walk the streets. Stopped at red light, I hope your car windows are bullet proof (and you checked under it with a mirror before starting off).
Which bit of 'go **** yourself' sounds like a pushover.
For Russia the invasion will be the easy bit.
Is what putin clearly thought - but it isn't.
just watching a bit of RT. its amazing to me that british and american people are willing to sell themselves out to work for this organisation....
Looks like Russia is going to be kicked of the swift banking system at least.
Looks like Russia is going to be kicked of the swift banking system at least.
Has Germany withdrawn their objections?
Looks like Russia is going to be kicked of the swift banking system at least
Would be forceful - if true; source?
Apologies for the DM link but...
https://www.****/debate/article-10553185/ANDREW-NEIL-West-impotent-long.html
Boycott BP filling stations. Hell boycott Al filling stations but especially BP ones.
It was in the guardian live feed.
There's films showing Russian APC's being stopped by multiple homemade petrol bombs. And lots of Ukrainian's on the barricades.
Edit: I can't verify its now or 2014
Re Kicking Russia off of SWIFT. There are other payment systems plus both India and China are looking to develop payment systems to allow them to trade with Russia. The law of unintended consequences may apply.
Take the economic blow to hit them in the wallet basically
Far better the West takes an economic hit than faces a military one in months/years down the line
at what point does cyberattacking change from BAU (we know it's always going on, it's a feature on modern life) into specific targeted attacks on NATO countries that require response?
Boycott BP filling stations.
Why ? What do you believe that will achieve ? The fuel still gets to market.
Why ? What do you believe that will achieve ? The fuel still gets to market.
Or we could do nothing, let a big business think it's OK to be involved with a pariah state and not take the one small individual action that will send a message that I'm not OK with Russia invading Ukraine.
Evil prospers when good people do nothing
In an age when we’ve all rightfully become cynical about our own vapid, corrupt and self-serving politicians, Zelinsky seems to be giving a masterclass in what real leadership looks like
https://twitter.com/_neonlars/status/1497253972213571589?s=21
No wonder Putin wants him dead. The contrast couldn’t be starker
I'm finding the response by many orgs really hopeful. Pornhub blocking Russian IP's is hilarious though.
@Binners I often wonder if we have the reaped what we've sown in terms of our political masters. They're mostly shit and we've all been so busy standing up for our 'side' not because they're good, simply because we don't like the other 'side'.
is the shear lack of human value Putin and the Russian military commanders placed on those paratroopers lives
Russian military doctrine (in the past at least) was based on waves and fast moving columns. The first wave were conscripts used to soften up the enemy and find points of weakness. So yes, Putin probably doesn’t give a flying fig about the loss of those guys.
The west will be waiting to see the first Armata/NLAW interaction for sure.