Ukraine

@andrewh

How capable is Biden?

Not capable. look at Afghanistan. Logistic chaos.

Like him or not Putin is pretty good at achieving things, see Crimea for example.

He has too otherwise others will step all over him. Look at CCP.

Is Biden actually going to be any use in facing up to him though, is he going to be able to take on the JFK role here?

He is not anyway near JFK as he does not have the leadership quality.

He seems to have a lot of support (particularly outside the US) for ‘not being Trump’ but does that make him the right man for the job?

Outside of US support mainly comes from the opponents as they are jumping with joy seeing a weak President in charge. That's why they hated Trump because they did not have the "upper hand".

We can hardly rely on Boris to lead the free world in the way we would have expected of Churchill or even Thatcher.

Boris is more or less on his own as EU does not want him and lefty Biden administration considers him "right". I don't think he can be compared to Churchill or Thatcher to lead the free world as many do not respect him.

Only a matter of days ago I'd have put money on a last minute de-escalation over Ukraine.

Now it seems inevitable.

It looks like half of Ukraine (east of the Kyiv river) will be Russian as I mentioned earlier.

Ukraine-Russia: Putin mulls recognising independence of breakaway regions

I don’t think he can be compared to Churchill or Thatcher to lead the free world as many ̶d̶o̶ ̶n̶o̶t̶ ̶r̶e̶s̶p̶e̶c̶t̶ ̶h̶i̶m̶.̶ think he's a bloody idiot.

Fixed that for you.

The Baltic States will be looking at the Russian playbook and thinking "we would be next if we weren't in NATO"

Fixed that for you.

LOL! True, true ...

As the saying goes "He is "our idiot"."

I think the wise thing is to ignore Putin recognising those breakaway regions, harsh as it is, beyond providing aid to Ukraine to take in any refugees.

He already had control there, if he and China and North Korea choose to recognise them as countries, shouldn't be enough to provoke a response from anyone.

I guess the danger is if Ukraine support any resistance groups and give him justification to retaliate.

And that's Putin's Sudetenland moment.

Also, the political fallout from a refugee crisis cannot be underestimated.

Putin has started address of the nation on Russian TV. I'm following it on BBC live and it's not looking good for Ukraine so far

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60454795

He already had control there, if he and China and North Korea choose to recognise them as countries, shouldn’t be enough to provoke a response from anyone.

Depends if he means the area that is currently occupied by the rebels, or the entire regions. If the later, then he has a pretty good excuse (on a false premise) to go and kick them out - invade. RT are suggesting the entire regions.

I think the wise thing is to ignore Putin recognising those breakaway regions, harsh as it is, beyond providing aid to Ukraine to take in any refugees.

He has just annexed (assuming that is the case) East Ukraine but as long as there is no maltreatment of the Ukrainians, I think people will just let them be. i.e. they may become "dual nationals" as Ukrainians and East Ukrainians/Russians whatever if it is a "separate" countries. The world can ignore the Russian Ukraine depending on the situation.

He already had control there, if he and China and North Korea choose to recognise them as countries, shouldn’t be enough to provoke a response from anyone.

As long as Russia leaves West Ukraine alone there will be no war.

I guess the danger is if Ukraine support any resistance groups and give him justification to retaliate.

That depends on Ukrainian's leadership whether to let half the country goes or to fight to regain the lost territory. Unfortunately it is best to leave it as war will not do both any good. Some just have to have "dual nationality".

Have you seen the footage from the Russian Security Council meeting?

Absolutely bonkers!

https://twitter.com/colonelhomsi/status/1495809714084630537?s=21

Everyone lined up in front of him like naughty school kids, to pledge their support for the glorious leader, one by one. He’s a ****ing madman!

RT absolutely would suggest the entire regions.

All that we need now is an entirely ineffectual Prime Minister to come home waving a meaningless autograph around.

Everyone lined up in front of him like naughty school kids, to pledge their support for the glorious leader, one by one. He’s a ****ing madman!

Try watching CCP that is even funnier. Everyone just say "yes".

Everyone just say “yes”.

Not much different from Johnson today announcing his covid denial. We laugh at other countries while tory MPs call the opposition names such as captain hindsight and lieutenant lockdown. We’re no better.

PJM1974
Free Member
RT absolutely would suggest the entire regions.

Putin specifically mentioned the LPR and DPR, so i'd say not the rest of the regions. So basically just re-affirming the status quo really.

Now that's not to say there's not going to be an escalation of fighting over these bits, might be might no. But there's a bit jump from that statement to the invasion of Ukraine I'd think.

Guess we'll see how things develop. There's potential for escalation in the East, but doesn't really seem like any more is imminent.

Not much different from Johnson today announcing his covid denial. We laugh at other countries

I don’t think anyone’s laughing, either about Putin or Johnson. Two very very dangerous men, but one of them looked completely unhinged today

Putin blames Lenin for the Ukraine problem.
A man who's rule ended in 1930s
Genghis Khan next

It's getting like north Korea but with bigger stakes. And bigger guns

pk13
Free Member
Putin blames Lenin for the Ukraine problem.
A man who’s rule ended in 1930s

whit a guy, considering he died in 1924. 😆

Putin specifically mentioned the LPR and DPR, so i’d say not the rest of the regions. So basically just re-affirming the status quo really.

I see, thank you.

... captain hindsight and lieutenant lockdown.

LOL! That's good, I mean being creative.

Never heard of that phrase before and really makes me laugh.

seosamh77

Fat fingers lol

For the uneducated, this is now on paper according to Putin West/East Ukraine now like West/East Germany, except We wait to see if either Ukraine fights back or Putin puts Russian boots on the ground?

Putin specifically mentioned the LPR and DPR, so i’d say not the rest of the regions. So basically just re-affirming the status quo really.

The DPR claims the entire Donetsk Oblast as of the law they passed in 2019 apparently.

Kryton57
Full Member
For the uneducated, this is now on paper according to Putin West/East Ukraine now like West/East Germany, except We wait to see if either Ukraine fights back or Putin puts Russian boots on the ground?

You've got to ask what is Putin actually wanting out of this? Well he's got Crimea, so that gives him the strategic position he wants in the Black Sea, and now he's just officially recognised the DPR and the LPR. So that gives him a bit of a buffer zone between Ukraine and Southern Russia. Not really seeing how going much further gives him anything but trouble really. Plus, Ukraine will now have a permanently disputed border which essentially makes NATO membership non-existent for eternity. Basically the same strategy as Georgia isn't it. (I guess there could be an escalation if he feels the need to take out some of Ukraines military capability.)

Assuming nothing much else happens, he's probably getting what he wants here, and no-one else will really say much about it assuming this is how it stays, as they'll be happy a further invasion didn't happen.

That's my guess anyhow.

Ewan
Free Member
Putin specifically mentioned the LPR and DPR, so i’d say not the rest of the regions. So basically just re-affirming the status quo really.

The DPR claims the entire Donetsk Oblast as of the law they passed in 2019 apparently.

Fair enough, but a disputed border isn't counter to Putin's strategy imo.

pk13
Free Member
seosamh77

Fat fingers lol

Yeah, I guessed so, was just too hard to resist. 😉

You’ve got to ask what is Putin actually wanting out of this?

He wants it all. It is a matter of who are willing to stand up to him etc.

Not really seeing how going much further gives him anything but trouble really.

I struggle to see what he would hope to gain by a physical war here.

molgrips
Full Member
Not really seeing how going much further gives him anything but trouble really.

I struggle to see what he would hope to gain by a physical war here.

So do I.

I struggle to see what he would hope to gain by a physical war here.

He gains by staying in power just like CCP but CCP is worst.

Psychological and/or cyber war would seem to be a much better option here. Ok so it might be taking a while and be less effective but far less fallout (both literally and figuratively).

A positive spin - I think - from the Beeb.

BBC News - Ukraine crisis: Five reasons why Putin might not invade
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60468264

Good time for someone else to invade from another direction though eh?

EDIT well, maybe if it weren't for thousands of miles of thawing tundra in the way...

Could Putin be doing this now, in part, to make Biden look bad therefore aid his little Trump back into power?

MoreCashThanDash
Full Member
A positive spin – I think – from the Beeb.

BBC News – Ukraine crisis: Five reasons why Putin might not invade
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60468264/blockquote >

Some good points, people may forget, but Ukraine is pretty large, with a population similar to Spain, the Russians would be bogged down and in a dirty fight being watched from all sides, i can't even think that a full invasion was ever in Putin's thinking, just destabilise, and try to gain areas and push the Russian agenda, which they've already done.

 

I struggle to see what he would hope to gain by a physical war here.

Put yourself in Putin's mind frame tho. He's probably decided a clash with nato / EU on the borders of Russia is inevitable at some point in the future, as he wants to stop / reverse western expansion eastwards. With that in mind it's a matter of do the costs outweigh the benefits - if by escalating things he can get the concessions he wants then all is well. However if he doesn't get the concessions he wants (which he hasn't yet) then it is hard to see the costs being any cheaper (in money or lives) than it is now. Let's say he backs down then it's hard to see the Ukraine not moving closer to the west after this and at some point in the future hosting US or Nato troops in some form. They'll certinaly get a lot of military aid / support from the west and be harder to invade in a couple of years.

With that frame of reference pushing things to the absolute brink makes logical sense, and if you don't get what you want then invading (with regime change) is the next best thing.

tldr Putin's a nutter and this probably makes sense to him.

Putin's now ordered russian troops into the rebel held areas on 'peace keeping missions'. I assume they'll shortly be 'attacked' as the final pretence.

Could Putin be doing this now, in part, to make Biden look bad therefore aid his little Trump back into power?

Silly Biden is already a gone case regardless. He is just a zombie walking. He has done it to himself because he is just an empty vessel pretending to be something he is not, same goes to his deputy. He is so weak he is a danger to the free world.

Russian troops ordered in to eastern Ukraine. As "peace keepers"...

What an absolute power hungry ****.

Putin’s now ordered russian troops into the rebel held areas on ‘peace keeping missions’. I assume they’ll shortly be ‘attacked’ as the final pretence.

I'm sure it will be due to NATO aggression, the secular Saint and "Stop the War" will be out to campaign for peace quite soon

Ukrainian ambassador on Newsnight claiming Russian troops have already crossed the border in the disputed regions

So an invasion in all but name.
Someone make him a brew with two lumps.
I guess he did have to wait until china gave him permission.
Anyone else think we might get a year off from crappy news after covid? Nah let's have a war

Had to go on RT to see the spin.

7 people waving flags and some fireworks going off to show the huge relief that those treacherous Ukrainians are being ousted...

Utter parallel universe stuff.