Putin's going to get dead and his successor will be further to the right and extremist. It'll take things getting worse for the russian people before the ordinary russian is prepared to do anything about it. Eventually someone a bit more liberal and friendly to the west will come into power. That's when we'll see them integrate with the rest of the world but realistically that's a minimum of 5-10 years away.
Putin's trying to keep people in line at the moment with the assassinations but he always enabled oligarchs because it was a way of keeping powerful people on side. At some point the rich and powerful will realise they can't stay rich and powerful with Putin in place. Once his successor is in place we'll likely see some more failed military exercises, Russia's standard of living dropping, even more middle class Russians leaving Russia and eventually the russian people will get sick of it. They a great capacity for suffering but they do still have a limit.
Eventually someone a bit more liberal and friendly to the west will come into power.
That already happened in 1990 with Mikhail Gorbachev and the Russians didn't exactly sieze the opportunity. Its been 125 years since the Bolshevik Revolution so don't pin your hopes on the ordinary Russian.
If you haven't watched it this documentary is a great explainer of how Russia ended up so fuct
Russia 1985-1999: TraumaZone, Series 1: 1. Part One - 1985 to 1989: www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p0d3kjmp via @bbciplayer
Who could replace Putin?
Look what happened when we got rid of Boris Johnson...
Putin is seen by many Russians as having saved the country from falling of a cliff after the Yeltsin years and he has been trading off of that ever since. Any replacement wont have that gravitas so Russia woild become extremely unstable.
Realistically, the best we can hope for is a neutered Russia. I'd love to see a literal neutering of Putin but I don't see that happening!
The country having nukes is always going to make it and Putin a global problem though.
It's still an anathema to me that one man, one single human being, can cause such devastation.
I'm really not sure humanity is going to come out the other end of this century. A perfect storm brewing.
Realistically, the best we can hope for is a neutered Russia
Yep, I'd say this is the safest bet
That already happened in 1990 with Mikhail Gorbachev and the Russians didn’t exactly sieze the opportunity.
As I understand it, Gorbachev was not the liberal democrat that people in the West assume. He wanted some limited reforms in order to strengthen the Soviet Union, he didn't intend to dissolve it and set up a democracy.
Once the Soviet Union imploded, a bunch of democratic parties formed but they disagreed on policies so they never managed to form any workable democratic alliance. This allowed the authoritarian right-wingers to retain power and then to crush the splintered democratic opposition.
Ukraine is democratic because there was a popular uprising against the former authoritarian leader and he fled the country when he realized that he couldn't retain power by force. Russia won't become a stable democracy until there is popular support for it. A new leader can't just impose a democratic system on a country that isn't committed to it because democracy requires that the people currently in power agree to share power with groups that they disagree with. The Russian security services are not going to just hand over power to liberal democrats so it will probably be decades, not years, before things in Russia improve.
Unherd have an article on Gorbachev that’s relevant
https://unherd.com/thepost/how-gorbachev-tried-to-save-the-ussr/
Gorbachev did not idly stand by as the Soviet Union collapsed. In most former Soviet territories, his legacy is shaped by the violence that proliferated at the end of his rule, particularly in the Baltics and the Caucasus. He fought to retain the Soviet Union, cracking down on pro-independence protests.
The change from control by Communist party to something approaching “democracy” was handled so badly (largely because of the very aggressive extreme capitalism as promoted by the Chicago School economists, and others) in the 1990’s
Do you have a source for this? I’m asking as there’s more than one narrative I’ve seen.
Cheers Nick, I’ll take a better read of that.
A quick scan read suggests it’s a lot more complicated than just “extreme capitalism” even going by a paper written at the time, and not something written after the dust has settled. The bungled implementation of economic reform always looked to be one part of what went wrong to me, and possibly not even the chief part which I still have as numerous power grabs in the turmoil.
I’m aware I have some preconceptions there so I’ll try and set that aside and read through thoroughly later.
I think his successor will be from his current cronies. With all the corruption they won’t want that being uncovered by an outsider so will want to maintain the status quo
A quick scan read suggests it’s a lot more complicated than just “extreme capitalism”
Yes. Although I think the Soviets concentration of economic reforms at the cost of [nearly] everything else was [in most of the academic studies I've read at least] mostly to blame. Look up Yegor Gaidar as the main "architect of reform" Alhough many now have relegated him to either the role of spokesperson, or the unfortunate soul who last handled the ticking time bomb.
I think his successor will be from his current cronies. With all the corruption they won’t want that being uncovered by an outsider so will want to maintain the status quo
"You can't always get what you want" as they say. Conditions seem ripe for a military coup, led by someone who can present themself to the ranks as not responsible for getting them into this mess, and present the military to the people generally as the saviours of Mother Russia, as they have always been. Putin may still have the security services on his side, surely the military will be least keen on him and least reviled by the people.
Looking at the new year speeches and more from Poopy-tin and cronies, I think Russia has truly become the new North Korea.
Again, let's hope 2023 brings an end to fighting.
Sadly, I think we will see things drag out for months if not years, a huge destabilising in Russia leading to more unrest among countries under or close to Russian influence.
I think we are also looking at a long period of time where Russia will have few friends, no resources, a grinding poverty and Western companies trying to pick off the natural resources.
Putin may still have the security services on his side, surely the military will be least keen on him and least reviled by the people.
That's just wishful thinking. Putin has been very careful to balance different power factions against each other and ensure that they can't threaten him. The Russian military is not run by professional soldiers like in the West, it's run by political appointees who owe their positions to Putin.
Yes, but in wartime the military become more powerful, which might upset the balance.
Yes, but in wartime the military become more powerful
Unless of course you lose a significant proportion of your fighters, a greater proportion of your vaguely competent leadership, a majority of your serviceable weapons and already have the inability to coordinate across your different forces, including one which is a private offering in search of wealth and power....
Look up Yegor Gaidar as the main “architect of reform”
"Russia 1989-1999" TraumaZone" on BBC iPlayer covers this and more rather well.
Yes. Although I think the Soviets concentration of economic reforms at the cost of [nearly] everything else was [in most of the academic studies I’ve read at least] mostly to blame. Look up Yegor Gaidar as the main “architect of reform” Alhough many now have relegated him to either the role of spokesperson, or the unfortunate soul who last handled the ticking time bomb.
Cheers, I was already broadly familiar with him, tbh having read that paper it’s just reaffirmed my position that the attempted reforms wouldn’t have fairer any better even if the Russians hadn’t tried something so far from the Soviet system. The conditions needed to implement large and rapid reforms were simply not met.
Never be the first to stop clapping smiling.
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1609719192596381696
Russia received some New Year fireworks courtesy of HIMARS. Who thought it would be a good idea to pack hundreds of conscripts into a building next to the front lines situated in the middle of a field so no chance of collateral damage? Edit: The same person also thought it would be a good idea to store ammunition in the same building and park some undisguised military vehicles round it. What could possibly go wrong?
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1609764123633659904?s=20&t=Z0BYrt-4cS-9OfQIRk56Kw
Russia received some New Year fireworks courtesy of HIMARS.
Ukraine are reporting 400 Russian casualties, not sure how they counted that though!
Russian bloggers seemingly agree casualties in the multiple 200s.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1609851068598427648?s=20&t=gY0Cy854HqLDGYe2tpALsQ
I'm no expert on military strategy and tactics, but surely dispersing your forces is just commonsense. Russia just doesn't seem to learn from past mistakes, still concentrating ammo dumps and vehicle depots where they are within range of Ukrainian fire.
Russian bloggers seemingly agree casualties in the multiple 200s.
Not quite. '200s' and '300s' are Russian military slang/shorthand for killed in action and wounded in action respectively. 5 x 200s for example would refer to 5 individual KIA, not 1000!
I’m no expert on military strategy and tactics, but surely dispersing your forces is just commonsense.
Me neither but according to that Twitter thread they are concerned that the "recruits" would wander away if not kept firmly under observation. It also says that they have been making some efforts to disperse ammunition. Some improvement in No Smoking signage would obviously have helped 🙂
Russian bloggers seemingly agree casualties in the multiple 200s.
While the human cost is awful, in the 'shades of horror' this event keeps up pressure and hopefully hasteneds an end of hostilities.
I really cant understand the whole thing with Germany and what they will/wont send to Ukraine. Why is a tank a problem but not a PZH self propelled gun??
We all need to stop pissing around with this and give them what they need.
I really cant understand the whole thing with Germany and what they will/wont send to Ukraine. Why is a tank a problem but not a PZH self propelled gun??
We all need to stop pissing around with this and give them what they need.
Not just Germany. No one, including the US, UK has sent modern, Western built MBTs to Ukraine. Germany gets unfair stick about tanks IMO, though they have dragged their feet in other areas.
I read some commentary on that which seemed plausible.
Basically its only really Germany that CAN supply tanks that Ukraine would be able to field and maintain in relevant numbers.
We cant produce enough Challengers.
And the Abrams is to difficult to keep running.
No idea if thats true, anyone here know better?
To be fair to the US, as a retired US General pointed out, the Abrams requires high levels of maintenance support and drinks fuel making the Leopard a much bettter fit for Ukraine.
Apparently, the U.S. Abrams have depleted uranium armour which would have to be removed before they could be exported. The U.S. has a fairly decent stock in mothballs and the U.S. Marine Corps is retiring them, but they would need to be refurbished and rearmoured to remove any export prohibited technology before they could be exported. On top of that, they use gas turbine engines which burn massive amounts of fuel, even when idling. They are apparently very maintenance intensive, so it would take months or years to set up the infrastructure to support them. Sending refurbished Soviet era tanks makes much more sense as a short-term solution. The Ukrainians are familiar with them and can service and maintain them.
Same thing holds with fantasies of supplying F16s, A10, etc. Ukraine doesn't have the infrastructure to maintain them. Supplying spare parts for Ukraine's existing Migs is much more immediate use.
I agree that the Leopard is a great tank and a better option for Ukraine than Abrams or Challenger. But because it's so good, it's in service with at least 5 other NATO members (and a couple of prospective members). It's only Germany though who get grief for not sending them. Germany has sent a lot of kit and some of it is having a massive effect. The Gepard for example which is punching way above its weight in bringing down scores of Shaheed drones on an almost daily basis. I'm not saying they shouldn't send tanks, just that I think they get singled out unfairly for not doing so when others could.
Shaheed drones
Can't help thinking that there's scope for some cigarette-related accident at the drone factory ...
In any case, the current situation will surely have put paid to any dreams Iran might have had of a rapprochement with the West.
Other Leopard users have said they will send them, but germany will not allow (part of the export licence). I have no issue with not sending your best tanks, but the excuses Germany comes up with are just BS.
As I posted earlier, The US Bradley IFV is available in huge numbers and would be perfect.
The phrase "Sh@t or get off the pot " springs to mind.
The fact remains that of the 30 NATO member countries, not to mention other non alliance countries who support Ukraine, not one has sent modern, western manufactured MBTs to Ukraine.
As I posted earlier, The US Bradley IFV is available in huge numbers and would be perfect.
Agreed. That the US appears to be seriously considering sending them is very welcome news indeed!
I'd agree that Ukraine needs the impetus of some game-changing weapons to really push their advantages, the reality is more nuanced unfortunately.
I'll use "release the leopards" as an example:
Which Leopards? The Leopard 2 has been around since 1979, Spain offered L2s that had been in storage for ten years and that were bought in 1995 (new then?). It was going to refurb 40 but that meant getting the necessary vote through the German parliament. The political and engineering logistics were huge and, depending on the spec, they might have had a 120mm gun that couldn't penetrate newer T80 and T90 Russian armour.
The German parliament? They make changes to the export license as pointed out ^^. You'll possibly know my views on contributions by some larger European economies, but in this case they might have a point.
It's important that political calculations don't precipitate an escalation that we (Europe, the world) really don't want.
Moscow is already making this into a NATO destroying Russia conflict to drum up support at home and using this as a mechanism to bypass Ukraine in negotiations.
Imagine the value to Moscow of images of battalions of "NATO" tanks sweeping across the oblasts
Battalions of "NATO" tanks? Possibly more of a hindrance than a help, nip next door and see if they've got a thrunge washer for a T80 engine. No sorry, they're running Abrams gas turbines
How many tanks could the west supply? You want how many? By when? Then there are all of the training, logistics (will my 66tonne L2 fit on a 45tonne T72B transport?) and fighting differences; a gas-turbine Abrams runs hotter than a diesel, how do we mitigate that IR disadvantage?
Ukraine has probably had more tanks donated by Russia than the west could afford to send. Don't forget that the Ukrainians built them and know them inside out
Even supplying the former Soviet, now NATO, states with western kit, training them and sending the Soviet kit eastward isn't simple. NATO has stepped up its alert in those countries so they're needed to be readily available
Bradley's are a possibility, but they're subject to many of the same considerations. The Ukraine has got similar systems and is more used to the driving and engineering tasks because the chassis is common to other vehicles.
Self-propelled guns and anti-aircraft platforms are IMHO less of an issue because they're much further away from the front and they aren't tanks.
Russia has destroyed 400 of the 100 (or whatever the numbers are) HiMARS and similar platforms, so they can't be a problem either 🙂
After previously boasting how his convict army would take Bakhmut, Wagner boss Prigozhin is now getting his excuses in as to why it won't. Russia has thrown everything at this and thousands have died in the process, it has been their main effort, just so Putin could save some face by claiming a victory in the Donbas. But Ukraine holds firm and it seems that Wagner is running out of steam (or under trained/equipped rapists and murderers). There were suggestions that Prigozhin was positioning himself as a rival to Putin, he will be seriously weakened if he fails in Bakhmut. I see an open window in his tea leaves.
More vids from that British guy who went to Ukraine. Not sure I’ve seen these posted since the first vid.
Thanks @kimbers, I’ve binge-watched the first four parts of this. It’s both infuriating and heartbreaking - how the oligarchs came to buy huge former state industries for a song, then speculated on foreign currencies while the entire country ground to a halt thanks to chronic shortages of roubles. The footage of the young child, barely older than a toddler begging for roubles by the roadside will stay with me for a long time.
If you haven’t watched it this documentary is a great explainer of how Russia ended up so fuct
Russia 1985-1999: TraumaZone, Series 1: 1. Part One – 1985 to 1989: http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p0d3kjmp via @bbciplayer
It’s easy to judge people like Yegor Gaidar as incompetent, but the Bush snr and Clinton administrations bet the farm on economic Shock Therapy opening the door to democratic regorms across the former Soviet Union which failed to materialise.
More vids from that British guy who went to Ukraine.
Really interesting stuff, thanks!
I'm just reading there was an attack on a "concentration of Russian troops" in Chulakivka across the Dnipro river from Kherson on New Year's Eve with possibly several hundred casualties.
Looks like there's been several of those in recent days. In Makiivka up to 600 killed. A concentration of troops in a university, sitting on top of an ammo dump in the basement.
Makiivka
Yes that was mentioned further up the page by uponthedowns.
Yes Ukrainians reporting another strike on nye at Chulakivka
No confirmation or pictures etc or it seems Russian discussion of it?
https://twitter.com/TomacMarti/status/1610301394690400263?t=20cX2EkeWO1n1prujXUo2g&s=19
Another base was attacked, in Sahy district, apparently some photos were published on Telegram with the geolocation tags on them - idiots!
Still stand by my prediction from a month back that if/when the ground freezes hard enough for rapid mass vehicle movement the Ukrainians will look to be on the move again, the fact that the horrendous Wagner assault on Bahmut seems to be finally running out of steam (and convicts) will further free up resources for this.
For the past few weeks the weather has been warm and wet, no dice, but next week it's supposed to get down to -16 in Kharkiv so...
Obviously this is a more complicated decision than 'ground hard = go' and Ukrainians have shown themselves highly adept at Opsec and misdirection so I'm not going to pretend I know exactly what they're going to do, but they have received significant quantities of fresh vehicles and high quality winter gear recently, along with a large number of troops returned from training in NATO countries, I'd be surprised if they didn't try something whilst most Russian troops are mainly focused on not freezing to death.
I’d be surprised if they didn’t try something whilst most Russian troops are mainly focused on not freezing to death.
I think this too. They are a clever and determined bunch, and will capitalise using whatever means they can.
That said, some of the 'stalled' lines are due to geography as much as fighting. They also are hurting badly and there seems growing reports of a lack of men, machines and ammunition. Although that could be some fakery too....
Twittetarti reported breakthrough on the P66 defence line between Kremina and Svatove. AFU on the move again it seems
That part of the line has been fairly spicy for a while, the Russians only attempted a counter attack there yesterday.
It's a bit early to know whether this is big move but even if it isn't, a minor breakthrough at Svatove will force Russia to quickly divert some of their better forces Northwards to Luhansk to stabilise the situation.
Which would sync rather neatly with a more concerted Ukrainian push in the South towards Tokmak when the really cold weather is supposed to hit this weekend.
I'm getting ahead of myself but the Ukrainians do have previous on this front.
Twittetarti reported breakthrough on the P66 defence line between Kremina and Svatove. AFU on the move again it seems
Links please!
Closest I can see is based on this
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/01/3/7383450/#:~:text=Serhiy%20Haidai%2C%20the%20head%20of,have%20become%20much%20more%20complicated.
https://twitter.com/GermanEmbassy/status/1609933512265633807?s=20&t=U8DaT-sES-7bCz0GWmfcOg
Can’t help but think there’s some statistics abuse going on
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230104-macron-promises-first-western-tanks-for-ukraine
The move to supply the French-made AMX-10 RC to Ukraine -- a light tank model in service since the 1980s that is being phased out in the French military -- represents a significant shift in French military support for Ukraine.
Along with the above “light tanks” they are sending Bastion APCs and already have sent Crotale AD.
The article also highlights a shift in position of Macron
Macron has hardened his rhetoric against the Kremlin in recent weeks, however, accusing Putin of committing war crimes through his "cowardly" and "cynical" attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure.In his New Year's Eve message, the French leader addressed Ukrainians, saying: "We will help you until victory and we will build a fair and durable peace. Count on France and count on Europe."
Did anyone else watch https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001grdw last night? I thought it provided some really good insight into things (at least from the perspective of volunteer fighters rather than the regular UA), didn't seem particularly censored either. Fair play to them though, all still well motivated after months of it. Was a bit depressing seeing how poorly that police-based volunteer group was though, given they were headed into front line action
I missed that, I'll give it a watch. Thanks.
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1610823616827883520?cxt=HHwWgICwzfDi5dosAAAA
Looks like I'm not the only one expecting things to get a lot louder next week when the ground freezes.
Apparently
https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1610828608288743427?t=WVIwiuE-h-ioOt7mtcbYvg&s=19
Not sure how many are actually being sent or if they're any good
Picture is old, but the foreign legion are sending some.
*Check your sources Piemonster*
Did anyone else watch https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001grdw last night?
.
I missed that, I’ll give it a watch. Thanks.
Interesting film. Enthusiasm, bravery and resolve offset by limited training and equipment. Thankfully they have more of the former than the opposition.
Also quite an interesting insight....
Seems to be a few twitter reports that PooTin has called for 36hr ceasefire, he says for Orthodox Christmas.
He said it, ergo it's either a lie or a tactical need.
Possibly just an opportunity to paint Ukraine as the villain to the domestic audience
US confirmed it is sending 50 Bradley IFVs, Germany is sending Marder IFVs AND another Patriot battalion (on top of the US supplied one) and the UK is hinting it may send tanks (pukka MBTs hopefully not French style Chorlton & the wheelies trucks with guns) as part of the next package to Ukraine.
Good to see
Along with the above “light tanks”...snip
TLDR: Your use of inverted commas is apt, these aren't "tanks" as defined by The Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) but "armoured combat vehicles" (ACV).
The CFE capped numbers of tanks, with an additional number of ACVs allowed. Russia stopped its participation in the CFE Treaty in 2015 after taking Crimea.
Ukraine has welcomed the donation but, unlike the Bastion APC, the AMX-10RC is old-tech. Hopefully France will the release the far more capable AMX-10RCR (Rénové) when its replacement is in service soon.
Putin had suggested a goodwill ceasefire of the Orthodox Christmas..... which is conveniently bang on when the Ukrainian offensive will probably start.
Which suggests that either he's suddenly filled with holy compassion, or that he and his generals are bricking it at the thought of another Kharkiv style rout.
I'll take option B please.
Interesting few snippets in here. I'm not sure who this professor is, but he seems confident and balanced where there is uncertainty.
- apparently lots of the forced conscripts being told that they are fighting Poland, who have invaded Ukraine and are trying to invade Russia
- lots of effort now going into deflecting criticism away from PooTin
Good to see
Absolutely. The Bradley and Marder IFVs are also classed as “armoured combat vehicles”, depending on version these could be potent vehicles.
Ukraine already has TOW missiles and uses the Bradley chassis underneath the M270 MLRS, so this should be a quick conversion course
Bradley’s gun will destroy a T72 at a range greater than the T72 main cannon. Marder and RCX also capable of destroying anything Russia has on the battlefield.
Combine that with their speed and troop carrying, this is exactly what UAF wants. Ability to drive 1000km on 1 tank, as opposed to a M1A refuelled twice a day.
US has stated 50 Bradley’s. Considering they have thousands in storage, I bet those numbers rise.
Add in the Turkish Kiribi’s arriving, plus French Bastion APCs, the USF just got very mobile!!
Analysts seem to be suggesting that just as Ukraine is receiving lots of new vehicles, Russia is getting very short of them.
One of the defining images of the Kharkiv offensive was of Ukrainian fast attack groups barrelling across fields towards Russian positions in Humm-vees with .50 cals blazing.
Assuming they can squeeze thier enormous solid brass balls into them, the idea of those same units with that same attitude being given Bradleys to rampage through the Russian backlines with is.... intriguing.
snip...RCX also capable of destroying anything Russia has on the battlefield.
I'm not so sure about that, the AMX-10RC is a 1970s design with a gun that was considered good BITD. It's still good today but not against more recent armour. That could be a moot point because I don't know what Russia has left
It has to stop to fire and the ammunition isn't standard to either NATO or Soviet guns, which could be a drawback
It is very mobile and can swim in RC form (RCR's upgrades made it a bit weighty so it lost the ability). Overall a definite plus to Ukraine, but the RCR is better protected
The proper generals on social media all seem to think these latest kit announcements are quite significant. Especially the Bradleys being better for the Ukraine Army than tanks. This must hit Russian moral even harder. The old Russian trick used in Syria for announcing ceasefires only to use them for further attacks or other advantage against weaker opponents just isnt going to work here. At last there is optimism not just the Ukrainains have stopped them but they are also going to push them back to the border. Brilliant timing by NATO countries.
I had both Marder and Bradley M2 Tamiya models when I was a kid (and Gepard) back in the 80’s. They looked mean and purposeful in 1:35 plastic is all I can add to this discussion.
I hate war. **** Pootin. Power to Ukraine 🇺🇦
I thought that BBC2 documentary was really interesting.
My main take-away was when the ex soldier commanding the volunteers said that it doesn't matter want deal Zelinsky and Putin strike, their partisan efforts will continue.
Something echoed by a Beau of the fifth column a few days back, namely that Russia doesn't have the numbers to occupy Ukraine. He said that if one counted all the initial forces (150,000) and took the mobilisation claims of 300,000 as true then they might have enough to occupy the East of the country but then the really nasty stuff would start...
Of course more than half the initial force has been either killed or injured and the conscription claims have been inflated two fold,
"I hate war. **** Pootin."
Hate War, Love Tamiya.
Off the the Christmas Airfix thread with you!
The old Russian trick used in Syria for announcing ceasefires only to use them for further attacks or other advantage against weaker opponents just isnt going to work here.
TLDR: That's one possible aspect to the ceasefire. It's also more reason for Russians to support its invasion
In mid-December Moscow announced that there wouldn't be a Christmas ceasefire and proceeded to attack civilian targets during "Western Christmas". The announcement of an "Eastern Christmas" ceasefire so late makes it difficult to comply with even if Ukraine was so inclined, which it isn't.
Ukraine was an Eastern Christian country (theologists, help me out here 🙂 ) as is Russia, but Ukraine has started to celebrate Christmas more according to the western Roman calendar than the eastern Julian calendar.
This is more "evidence" of the decline in Ukrainian morality for the benefit of the Russian home crowd and the lack of secular western morality in supporting Ukraine