(check dailymail news yourself)
No thanks. If it's a headline in the Daily Hate, it's probably a load of old cobblers.
More evidence of partisan activity in occupied Ukraine, this is the 'judge' who sentenced two British POWs to death. I doubt many collaborators working for the Russian occupiers sleep easily at night.
https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1588950153439989762?s=20&t=V86IyKOpHoZpoGY7cv4Hag
AP are running an article on war crimes which seems to have some independent verification done to some degree, actual investigative journalism rather than a recycled story.
Dont really want to quote any of it tbh
For those who have been waiting for Mike Martin to stick another update on Twitter he has broken silence. He's previously been pretty much on the money.
https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1588954556024569856
I think the war will stop soon as China has voiced their opinion after that German bloke went to China to “beg”
The war will stop when Russia withdraws from Ukrainian territory. China and Germany aren't combatants, they have no say in things.
I think the war will stop soon as China has voiced their opinion after that German bloke went to China to “beg”
This trip changes nothing. China reiterated its opposition to the use of nuclear weapons, which it originally made clear in a meeting in Uzbekistan in September, but didn't mention a withdrawal by Russia
Germany seems to be heading for the same kind of reliance on China that it previously had with Russia and has been warned against, as it was with Russia.
Germany has just opened 25% of its port in Hamburg (where Chancellor Scholtz was mayor) up to investment by China's Cosco and there have been concerns at VW's Xinjiang plant for years https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-54918309
China and Germany aren’t combatants...
Agreed
...they have no say in things
China has massive influence over Russia and made its opposition to the use of nuclear weapons, for example, clear in a meeting in Uzbekistan in September. Russia rowed back on its nuclear sabre rattling very soon after
The war will stop when Russia withdraws from Ukrainian territory
Agreed. However Ukraine has been urged to soften its approach to negotiation by the US because of fears of Ukraine-fatigue amongst allies as winter bites.
The results of the US mid-terms are by no means certain and the ease of providing funding for materiel ($18.9bn to date) has been promised scrutiny by the Republican party
China and Germany aren’t combatants, they have no say in things.
This again. Unfortunately not true. If (for example) China were to start supplying some of its massive stockpile of weapons, the outlook would change significantly.
This is an interesting article about what’s left behind and the challenges the Ukrainians are going to have dealing with it for years to come
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/life/risking-life-clear-landmines-ukraine-russians-hunting/
However Ukraine has been urged to soften its approach to negotiation by the US because of fears of Ukraine-fatigue amongst allies as winter bites.
Do you have a source for that? What changes do you believe the U.S. has urged? Has Ukraine actually changed its approach or has it just ignored the U.S. on this?
The fundamental problem with negotiations is that Russia is completely untrustworthy and will break any agreement as soon as is suits them. Ukraine would probably sign a treaty if the borders were guaranteed by NATO, with a permanent NATO military presence in Ukraine. They would not sign anything based just on a Russian promise, without any meaningful enforcement mechanism. It makes no difference what Germany and China believe, any peace treaty would need Ukrainian agreement, and they aren't going to sign anything that isn't backed up by military force.
Russian promise sounds like a nasty cheap sex act.
Watched a video on ytube of Ukraine locals using a tractor and strap to move dead Russian soldiers
Soo if they were booby trapped with grenades or mines the locals /red Cross didn't get exploded as well.
This has obviously happened once amd shows what is being left behind when the Russian forces are overrun
However Ukraine has been urged to soften its approach to negotiation by the US because of fears of Ukraine-fatigue amongst allies as winter bites.
That's not actually what the U.S. is doing. They are asking Ukraine to show that it is willing to negotiate even if Putin stays in power. The purpose is to show that it is Russia that is refusing to end the war, not to have Ukraine make concessions.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/11/05/ukraine-russia-peace-negotiations/
The encouragement is aimed not at pushing Ukraine to the negotiating table, but ensuring it maintains a moral high ground in the eyes of its international backers
Soo if they were booby trapped with grenades or mines the locals /red Cross didn’t get exploded as well
This is what you did in the early-80s, without a handy tractor,
I wouldn't be surprised if it's still used
The purpose is to show that it is Russia that is refusing to end the war, not to have Ukraine make concessions.
From the Washington Post link ^^ "The Biden administration is privately encouraging Ukraine’s leaders to signal an openness to negotiate with Russia and drop their public refusal to engage in peace talks unless President Vladimir Putin is removed from power" (My bold)
and "...they acknowledge that President Volodymyr Zelensky’s ban on talks with him has generated concern in parts of Europe, Africa and Latin America, where the war’s disruptive effects on the availability and cost of food and fuel are felt most sharply."
Is that not a softening of its approach to negotiation because of fears of Ukraine-fatigue amongst allies as winter bites?
I don't think that anyone is being forced to negotiate either 🙂
^^I read about this on Sky and they have a slightly different take on the Washington Post angle. Sky said the US don't believe putin is serious about negotiating and if he is he should stop bombing and withdraw then negotiations could be looked at. Basically what they always said. Doesn't sound like softening to me.
Is that not a softening of its approach to negotiation because of fears of Ukraine-fatigue amongst allies as winter bites?
Not if Ukraine's requirements for a peace treaty haven't changed. The obstacle all along hasn't been Putin remaining the Russian leader, it's been that Russia has invaded Ukraine. A peace treaty will require Russia to withdraw from Ukrainian territory, which Russia refuses to do.
A peace treaty will require Russia to withdraw from Ukrainian territory, which Russia refuses to do.
This, but not only this...
...this would just be the first step to peace, given that Russia has made war in all but name.
Russia has opportunity to back out of this, but not on thier terms.
Not if Ukraine’s requirements for a peace treaty haven’t changed
"and drop their (Ukraine's) public refusal to engage in peace talks unless President Vladimir Putin is removed from power"
I think that you're conflating different but connected issues: Ukraine's requirements for a peace treaty and Ukraine's public refusal to engage in peace talks unless President Vladimir Putin is removed from power.
You can't reach a negotiated treaty if you don't have talks.
We're not at a stage for either because "The territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine should be restored to the full," as Andriy Yermak said in May to the Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House). To be clear, Ukraine should be fully restored before talks begin
Russia has opportunity to back out of this, but not on thier terms.
Surrender and walk away would be on their terms. After that you need a negotiated treaty, which you can’t reach if you don’t have talks.
Importantly you need a world that will back you to rebuild and enforce agreements like the 1994 Budapest Memorandum (that was signed by Belarus (who is helping Russia), Kazakhstan (who opposed the 2014 Ukrainian government and has now gone neutral) Russia, Ukraine, UK and US) with positive action by the UN Security Council. Separate documents were signed by China and France
Too late edit: To be clear, Ukraine's territory should be fully restored before talks begin
10-minute read here featuring "Mark Galeotti, the author of a new book, Putin’s Wars: From Chechnya to Ukraine, and a public policy fellow at the Wilson Center in Washington, DC. He has advised the UK government on foreign policy, is a fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, and the principal director of the Mayak Intelligence political risk consultancy"
https://worldnewsera.com/news/entrepreneurs/analysis-putins-ukraine-war-is-entering-a-terrifying-new-phase/
Too late edit: To be clear, Ukraine’s territory should be fully restored before talks begin
Fully restored? Who are going to make that happen? Talks can only begin when one side is losing or in the process of losing.
10-minute read here featuring “Mark Galeotti, the author of a new book, Putin’s Wars: ...
Until I see nuke unleashed there is nothing to terrify about other than just normal war.
Regain territory, join NATO, game over 🤷♂️
Russia has hardly been doing well since the first week. One could say that they have been getting soundly beaten and pushed back in disarray. That's not even mentioning their war crimes so far and the continued breaking of law and conventions on targeting civilian infrastructure.
Regain territory, join NATO, game over 🤷♂️
I think Ukraine dare not join NATO to avoid escalation.
Or they can join to humiliate Russia and put Russia in their place, this I want to see.
I think Ukraine dare not join NATO to avoid escalation.
Whereas I think they'd join tomorrow, but NATO won't let countries currently involved in a conflict in.
I'm coming round to thinking that NATO should just roll right through Ukraine full force and expel Russia, stopping at the borders. Accept that bastard lunatic might do something stupid if that was the case.
Whereas I think they’d join tomorrow, but NATO won’t let countries currently involved in a conflict in.
Well, that's just going to prolong the war.
I’m coming round to thinking that NATO should just roll right through Ukraine full force and expel Russia, stopping at the borders. Accept that bastard lunatic might do something stupid if that was the case.
They should rather than pussy footing. The longer the war the more suffering and if all goes kaput then at least we all know that we are starting "new" together.
We can do a lot more without getting directly involved. We should supply regiments of main battle tanks and more modern armoured vehicles, more long range artillery, night vision and body armour for every fighter, modern aircraft (probably Saab Gripen in the short term given it's ability to operate from austere landing strips, probably F16 long term) with long range air to air and anti radar missiles.
Russia has the advantage in long range air at the moment, it needs to lose it. It's also launching long range attacks - Ukraine needs the need to stop that.
Not till the spring. With the mud making off road going exceptionally hard, even for tracked vehicles.
I think this is why we are not seeing the massive gains we saw in September.
If you are forced to use tarmac roads you limit what you cn achieve safely
Roads can be mined, artillery and morters ranged accurately
Tracked vehicles chew up the countryside and leave an obvious divot in the earth so hiding in a hedge or copse becomes pointless.
I suspect that there will be a hold in major assaults with units rotation for some rest.
Then when it dries up in the spring the smash and grab raids off road can begin again
We have a long winter between the autumn & spring mud. Frozen solid ground
I’m no military expert but wouldn’t winter be a time that favors the better equipped army even more? If you’ve got a warm coat and your enemy is freezing surely you’ve got a pretty big advantage already.
That's true, but why risk your soldiers lives any more than they already are if your opponent is freezing to death.
The concept of "Never interrupt your enemy when they're making a mistake" is likely in action here.
Should do. But it's bound to be messy- it could favour the more static force since they've less mobility to lose, or it could favour the more mobile one since they've more to leverage and are less likely to be stuck somewhere crap. It could, ironically, favour the army that's already illprepared and miserable as they've got a level of experience of being left in a field with no dry socks. Short good supply lines can cause more chaos when they break than long crap ones. Even if Russian cultural fatalism weren't a thing, anyone in that army who's surprised when things go to shit is probably already dead or crazy
I wouldn't like to do much of anything in a ukrainian winter though.
A Ukrainian winter can vary from averages above freezing around Kherson to freezing at Zaporozhye to below freezing in Luhansk. 45 tonnes of T72 can face very different challenges as a result
Buried mines, for example, might not be triggered or limited in effect in frozen ground and be difficult to bury and conceal if new mined areas are needed.
Winter in Ukraine isn't simple to define over an active front line hundreds of miles long
I think for the poorly equipped newly mobilised troops winter could be very grim, especially if it gets really cold
Captured Russian troops complaining of commanders abandoning them, friendly fire & 3 days with no food
https://twitter.com/Marlen_Leroy/status/1589745072727203840?t=wv_3kMoX6PbU6-HcCkZYvQ&s=19
Russian sources saying that they've lost 100s of mobilised troops in just a few days in a failed attempt to capture a village called Pavlivka (sp?) in Donbass
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1589298282085646337?t=W6HnVsk4ufZAxxzXn93Y2w&s=19
A lot of tanks & vehicles lost too
https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1589525490779713538?t=Kq8X2jeqDaytLmhWM3fMAQ&s=19
Kimbers, I'm confused by that POW video. Have they put yellow tape on the Russian POW's?
I think for the poorly equipped newly mobilised troops winter could be very grim, especially if it gets really cold
Ukraine believes that one reason for Kherson being evacuated is to give Russian troops shelter. There are also reports of Russian troops being seen in civilian clothes; looted layers against the cold or a deliberate deception?
Works as both I guess and clearing a city is a long, slow, process unless you flatten it. I'm sure that there's a plan 🙂
The cargo ship blown up yesterday was apparently carrying Iranian drones. I really hope that is true.
https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1589887000668041216
If you read the comments they say the ship is in dry dock. From my little knowledge, the photo seems to show a ship ‘very high’ and surrounded by scaffolding and a crane so sadly I don’t think it was transporting drones
Twitter reliable as always then!
That's not "very high" by any means, looks about right for a ship in the water. A dry dock would have the ship sitting much lower (think about it).
As for scaffolding, I can't really see from the muddy potato image but that looks like it's round the infrastructure on whatever quayside it's been shot from. Again, not unusual, docks are frequently construction sites with live areas adjacent.
The Battle of the Bulge in WW2 was fought in average temperatures of -7c. Armour was used extensively. Mud season is the bad time for armour, a hard winter is OK.
Having said that it will take time to stand up an armoured regiment. The best time to do it was last year, the second best is now.
Kimbers, I’m confused by that POW video. Have they put yellow tape on the Russian POW’s?
Yes, stops them getting shot at in Ukrainian controlled territory (as read on the never wrong Twitter)
Well my builder has just pulled an old daily express out of a cavity - from July 195...(last digit not legible)
Cover story is about the threat of soviet union and how US needs to doing something to stop them getting the 'H' bomb..
How completely random but still relevant
Long thread, and no Ive not fact checked everything but I spot verified a few pieces.
Interesting response to the usual dis/misinformation claims about who us to blame.
https://twitter.com/neil_abrams/status/1589725333536002050?t=mFksOU7CaVmnQVBTGGcBzg&s=19
There's some ongoing responses too on Aarons account
Who’s Aaron Mate? 🤷♂️
Hes a reporter from the really quite far left wing The Greyzone. (Not overly harsh to call him a leading Tankie)
Its not that unusual to see them retweeted by Russian government officials.
That’s not “very high” by any means, looks about right for a ship in the water. A dry dock would have the ship sitting much lower (think about it).
As for scaffolding, I can’t really see from the muddy potato image but that looks like it’s round the infrastructure on whatever quayside it’s been shot from. Again, not unusual, docks are frequently construction sites with live areas adjacent.
And now that I've seen the picture on an actual monitor it does indeed look like a dry dock.
So never mind.
Slight distraction
According to your "favourite" news, Daily something, they now are saying China is preparing for war. HHhmmm ... what? That's so yesterday. LOL!
My advice to the West is to strike while the iron is hot if you wish to survive. At the moment their military strength is only 1/3 that of the West combined. If the West wait they will regret this forever because once they got their full strength, which they will in the next decade(s), you will not be messing with them without very heavy losses if not defeat.
This is the first time they are saying preparing for war since Mao. I suspect now they will put full effort in war preparation and if they do so you will notice plenty of development in armory. I am still counting their aircraft carriers ...
p/s: recent attempted assassination of Imran Khan could be perceived as trying to destabilise the ally.
pp/s: If they really move for Taiwan, I seriously doubt Taiwan will have the stomach to fight and probably just give up.
You know the US said they would defend Taiwan with all its power?
You know the US said they would defend Taiwan with all its power?
Yes, that's why China want to test their sincerity.
Unlike Russians who are ill prepared this is entirely different ball game.
Paper dragon as opposed to a paper tiger?
I suspect that if (god forbid) we ever get to see China's military capability used in anger, we might be as surprised by their lack of prowess as we were by Russia's. They have zero combat experience and a rigid hierarchical command structure which doesn't value initiative at a junior level, in the way which benefits western militaries so much. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the corruption and hollowed out logistical support evidenced in the Russian military is also evident. I am not writing them off, they clearly have a huge military but I doubt that they are quite as good as they think they are.
I also seriously doubt that Taiwan would capitulate as easily as you suggest. The sea and internal geography of the island mean it would be a nightmare to attack. We are talking about opposed beach landings which would be utter carnage. The Taiwanese in prepared defence would take a horrific toll on PRC troops attacking them. They have had plenty of time to prepare and western advice on how best to do so. Their indigenous defence industry is high tech and capable and their military is well equipped.
It is likely I think that due to the sheer weight of numbers, China would prevail eventually, but at a horrific cost in lives that would make Ukraine look like a schoolyard tussle. There would also likely be a partisan war conducted from the forests and mountains of the interior which would last for decades. I think China knows most of this and isn't in any hurry to try, despite it's bluff and bluster.
Paper dragon as opposed to a paper tiger?
Test them to see if they are real. I suspect 50 - 50.
I also seriously doubt that Taiwan would capitulate as easily as you suggest.
They don't have to do much really other than treating Taiwan as their "Cuba". i.e. no supply in or escape out.
Slight distraction
Let's get back on track, and my apologies for getting drawn into a derailment. There's a thread on Taiwan somewhere for these musings.
Cheers bloke, and that one even had it as a header.
Back on track.
Winter war should be harsh for both sides.
Higher probably of succumbing to the elements if the situation is similar to WWII.
Looks like the Russian's are finally getting into 21st century warfare and having quite a bit of success with the Lancet loitering drones.
Winter war should be harsh for both sides.
Higher probably of succumbing to the elements if the situation is similar to WWII.
True, but Ukraine is fighting on home turf with internal logistical supply lines, lots of winter kit being provided and their kit was already streets ahead of the Russians, especially the conscripts. They are also getting global support. The UK for example is sending each of the thousands of Ukrainian troops trained in UK, home with a pile of winter kit. Other nations are doing likewise. Meanwhile Billy no mates Russia is relying on bingo cards and cake sales by Babushkas to crowdfund some wooly socks for their lads....
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1590011352998821889?s=20&t=0LL4zVp54adzki8QGsDGXg
They got a lot of kit recently from Canada too
including 400,000 pieces of gear such as winter parkas, pants, boots and gloves sourced from Canadian companies as well as an additional 100,000 pieces from the CAF inventory
On drones, there a video here on some Iranian drones that claims quite a bit of US manufactured parts involved
https://twitter.com/daf_2021/status/1590053566399807488?t=JABNsM3A1ACThK_lTcgdzA&s=09
Meanwhile Billy no mates Russia is relying on bingo cards and cake sales by Babushkas to crowdfund some wooly socks for their lads….
Until one side is defeated and terms being negotiated nothing is very clear.
Until one side is defeated and terms being negotiated nothing is very clear.
Even then we won't know the half of it, I suspect it will be decades before we get a clearer picture of some of the battlefield tactics, subterfuge and black ops carried out by both sides. This is a war that will be studied on higher command staff courses at military academies around the world for years to come.
This is a war that will be studied on higher command staff courses at military academies around the world for years to come.
Probably more towards the tactics rather than strategy.
Uncle Ho (Chi Minh) is particularly good at this sort of things I suppose.
Seem to be lots of these stories of
Mobilised Russians left with no supplies or ammo being relentlessly picked off by Ukrainian drones/artillery , survivors deserting and the being abandoned /imprisoned by RU trooos
https://twitter.com/****ig_idiot/status/1589951919270731778?t=-dSXPugrHqTtR5d0GBzXzw&s=19
Long & jawdropping thread here
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1590040871583764482?t=oEi4YCbr4WtGDp98d7_zNw&s=19
Also sounds like a large Russian column has been destroyed in kherson
https://twitter.com/rendeiro_silva/status/1590077755680763904?t=xXEp1IXdfPfPX6iAS6-2DQ&s=19
https://twitter.com/ChrisKimberley/status/1590107356733394944?t=cezx7LEqLQb2gZYrWaFVig&s=19
The outcome of the US mid-terms is looking unlikely to resolve the existing near 50:50 split in both houses. Russia is hoping for Republican wins, but the votes aren't all counted yet. War and spending in Ukraine isn't seen as a major influence on voter choice
LONDON, Nov 8 (Reuters) - "Pro-Kremlin forces in Russia are hoping that the Republicans win control of Congress, an outcome they believe could mean Democratic President Joe Biden faces a tougher and longer slog to get military aid packages for Ukraine approved."
Connected with this is an update on Ukraine's conditions for negotiation. The guarantees of modern weapons are needed to keep Russia on its side of the border without lobbing more missiles over
KYIV, Nov 8 (Reuters) - "The secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council said on Tuesday the main condition for the resumption of negotiations with Russia would be the restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity.
The powerful official, Oleksiy Danilov, said Ukraine also needed the "guarantee" of modern air defences, aircraft, tanks and long-range missiles."
Just to note that Lend Lease was voted in with a House 417-10 vote.
The WW2 equivalent was House 260-165
Without wanting to derail the thread there are connected goings-on in Serbia and Georgia
Both countries have seen an influx of businesses and people from Russia, leading to economic growth and property price increases, but for different reasons:
Georgia is on the EU's radar, but as an interested party rather than a candidate. It's influx of Russian money, business and people is down to it welcoming 112,000 Russians wanting to avoid mobilisation. The result is a country currently on track for 10% economic growth while the rest of Europe is staring down the barrel of recession
Georgia is bordered by Russia, has imposed financial sanctions on Russia and isn't a member of NATO
Serbia is an EU-candidate and as such is expected to toe the sanctions line, but it hasn't. The people see President Putin as a good leader and a good ally.
The independence declaration by Kosovo from Serbia in 2008 isn't recognised by Serbia and there is constant friction between the two, currently over vehicle registration plates of all things, and Serbian concern for Kosovo's minority Serbian population (sounds familiar?).
Kosovo is also an EU-candidate in the same cohort as Serbia
LONDON, Nov 8 (Reuters) – “Pro-Kremlin forces in Russia are hoping that the Republicans win control of Congress, an outcome they believe could mean Democratic President Joe Biden faces a tougher and longer slog to get military aid packages for Ukraine approved.”
At the moment, it looks like Democrats have a good shot at retaining the Senate and Republicans will only get a narrow House majority. So far, votes opposing funding for Ukraine have been purely symbolic because Democrats had majorities in the House and Senate. Once Republicans control the House, votes are not longer purely symbolic and opposing aid to Ukraine will go against public opinion. It will only take a few Republicans to support spending bills to get them passed so I doubt that Ukraine will just be cut off completely.
Stories about conscripts being killed seem to be everywhere. These are just normal blokes with families who've been told they have to go and get shot at / blown up and seem to be being used as human shields to provide a buffer before the professional army. Horrible horrible stuff.
One of the bridges blown up by the Russians in Kherson today......
That should stop the UAF advancing. (photo 3)
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1590291859934351360/photo/3
Blowing up bridges is something armies do when retreating, it commits them to the retreat. Ukraine could decide not to try to take the city now, and just let the Russians suffer through the winter. The bridges being down makes it harder for the Russians to go on the offensive.
Yeah - just seen the Shoigu announcement. That is huge! If they get out though its another 25000 russian troops to fight elsewhere.
On the bridges, the one in question was over a dry ditch!! It smacked of an order from on high to =blow all the bridges, with nobody on the ground pointing out its uselessness.
its a trap
With UAF drones/SF and NATO air recce assets in the area, Ukraine will know exactly what is/isnt happening.
SHOIGU : For us the lives of our servicemen is a priority
I think the mobilisation and flagrant maltreatment of the mobilised is going down like a lead balloon. They are also desperate to appear in control of events.
On the bridges, the one in question was over a dry ditch!!
Dry ditch currently. Doesnt mean it doesnt become a decent obstacle in the middle of winter. So if you have the explosives might as well do it.
They'll be over it tomorrow!! The point of blowing these bridges was to slow down the UAF enough for an orderly withdrawal. To me it just shows how doctrinal and centrally controlled RF army is.