Well, that could be another costly day for the Russians.
I also see the Russians have passed 70,000 confirmed dead. 🙁
The numbers are just dizzying. Unbelievable that this is happening in our lifetimes
TBF, conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen, Tigray, Ethiopia, Somalia, Dafur, Syria have all killed way more, and they're the ones off the top of my head.
I would also think Mexico, Columbia and Venezuela also see tens of thousands dead each year at the moment.
🙁
Drones!
Well, that could be another costly day for the Russians
Russia has already been on an inspection go-slow with grain cargos for some time and they've now used drone attacks as an excuse to stop grain shipments because the safety of shipping can't be guaranteed.
Take your military shipping elsewhere, the civilian shipping is passing safely!
I also see the Russians have passed 70,000 confirmed dead. 🙁
Confirmed?
On 21-22 September fullfact.org was reporting anything between 5937 dead (Russian figure), 25000 (James Heappey MP, based on a three-week old figure from Ben Wallace MP) and 55000 (Ukrainian figure)
Terrible losses of life on both sides
It’s the number given by Ukraine for Russia
Drones!
Russian allegations that the Royal Navy co-ordinated these drone attacks in Sevastopol and the attack on NordStream infrastructure in September are widely reported. No evidence offered as you'd expect, same as when they blamed the NS damage on "Anglo-Saxons" a few weeks ago
It’s the number given by Ukraine for Russia
Absolutely. The only people who know have made it a state secret since invading Crimea in 2014...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/28/vladimir-putin-declares-all-russian-military-deaths-state-secrets
The Pentagon is estimating 80K Russian casualties, but I doubt that even Russia have very precise figures. What's clear is that Russia is trying to hide how badly things are going and their army has suffered utterly disastrous losses. Many of the soldiers who haven't been wounded or killed are probably militarily ineffective anyway due to fatigue, low morale, lack of food and equipment, etc.
they blamed the NS damage on “Anglo-Saxons” a few weeks ago
I blame the Jutes myself.
Who are the Jutes, by the way?
Can easily believe the higher casually estimates, Ukraines claims for destroyed equipment are backed up pretty closely by visual confirmation by Oryx etc which lebds credence.
Also Russia dies not include soldiers f egg om Donetsk & Luhansk republics in their figures.
It will be interesting to see what the full extent of the damage to ships in Sevastopol will be, if Russia were to lose another flagship!!!
Who are the Jutes, by the way?
From Jutland, which I believe is in Denmark?
This whole thread is mad..
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1586488719342637056?t=maRhNdjqWlwWffVTRbKzAA&s=19
From Jutland, which I believe is in Denmark?
Yeah, them. Untrustworthy lot!!
And lets not forget them pesky Frisians. Coming over here and taking the jobs from our own hardworking cows. Great big black and white milk factories that they are.
That Twitter thread is bonkers. How long till they start shooting their own officers?
If they know that's how they're going to get treated when they go back then why wouldn't they surrender.
Who are the Jutes, by the way?
I think they make bags
And lets not forget them pesky Frisians
Best kept away from if theyre with calves
If they know that’s how they’re going to get treated when they go back then why wouldn’t they surrender.
There was a report a week or two back saying that the new conscripts are sent to the front with regular troops behind them, ordered to shoot anyone who tries to retreat or surrender, then behind the regular troops are political officers who are ordered to shoot anyone who disobeys orders.
Darwin award goes to the Russian soldier who posted a Telegram video of the inside of his barracks which was a school that was easily identifiable to Ukraine forces. Needless to say it will need more than a lick of paint before the kids can return.
This whole thread is mad..
What an absolute mess
Giorgia Meloni's Italian Government is sending AA and artillery systems to Ukraine. France is also sending AA systems
"Italy and France agreed to supply Ukraine with European anti-aircraft missile systems SAMP-T"
"LaReppublica reports that Italy is preparing to transfer six PzH 2000 howitzers and two M270 systems to the Armed Forces of Ukraine"
"Italy transferred to Ukraine from 20 to 30 M109L self-propelled artillery mounts, – La Repubblica"
All reports from https://tpyxa.net/nonmedianews/
Baykar, the Turkish drone maker, is testing Bayraktar TB2 and Akıncıs drones fitted with AA missiles. They hope to supply them to Ukraine soon https://baykartech.com/en/press/turkish-drone-maker-baykar-to-counter-kamikaze-threat-in-ukraine/
The TB2 has already been used in a "naval mission"; Russia says that it was the Moskva sinking
Opinion piece by Vladislav Inozemtsev, Professor and Chair at Department of World Economy, Faculty of Public Governance, Moscow State Lomonosov University.
https://theins.ru/en/opinion/vladislav-inozemtsev/255450
The final countdown of the Putin era. How the mobilization will affect Russia’s economy and the Kremlin
Fairly blunt in places
meanwhile, women can clearly see what a horrifying future the balding Kremlin dwarf has in store for them. Under the new circumstances, no orphan allowances or white Ladas for families of the fallen can stop the intensifying rebellion
I’m no personal security expert … but … I would suggest he steers clear on windows/door knobs/cups of tea/rivers and so on.
Blimey, he doesn’t pull his punches. Balding Kremlin dwarf indeed! He’s a brave man 😐
Jeez, thats well worth reading. Brave soul indeed.
China's industrial output has been down for some time now, partly due to swingeing C19 restrictions. As China enters the winter season and a possible rise in C19 and flu, combined with a likely European recession, oil use will drop
China increased imports of Russian oil to their highest ever in May, but this will slow down now as the latest blow to Russia's economy
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke to China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi, discussing Ukraine amongst other topics
https://www.state.gov/secretary-blinkens-call-with-peoples-republic-of-china-prc-state-councilor-and-foreign-minister-wang-yi-3/
World grain shipments will restart today, but Russia still isn't participating
Ukraine has the moral high-ground here and Russia is undoubtedly the pariah
"Ukraine remains a reliable partner for the civilized world and is ready to continue shipping agricultural products to ensure global food security"
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-economy/3603856-infrastructure-ministry-ukraine-ready-to-continue-exporting-grain-to-ensure-food-security.html
It doesn't help the Russian case that the "grain corridor" ports around Odessa (Odessa, Chornomorsk and Yuzhny/Pivdennyi) are 200 miles away from the dangers of military action in Sevastopol
This sums up how crazy the war and Pootin is.
https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1587059006715170817?s=20&t=yReb4MpuoNovYhv03moPHw
why do I keep getting stories on my news feed saying those naval drones are British? I mean apart from being absolutely bollocks what does it achieve spouting that disinformation?
I mean I suppose its a similar story to Iran supplying drones, which I do actually believe and there is verifable photo evidence
Apparently there's a strong Royal Navy involvement in the boat drones. This is both procuring them and assisting the operation.
I suspect it will be post Russian defeat that we get (some) of the story.
why do I keep getting stories on my news feed saying those naval drones are British?
Russia says that the raid was "led by British specialists", they don't imply where the drones were made. There isn't any evidence that they've shared to prove even that.
I've also seen Twitter reports that the allegations came about because Liz Truss's phone was hacked, ignoring that this was discovered during her leadership campaign months ago. Russia knows that allegations about her phone being hacked are now public (if it was hacked) so why not say so?
Apparently there’s a strong Royal Navy involvement in the boat drones. This is both procuring them and assisting the operation.
I'm sceptical, though happy to be proved wrong. What are the sources for that?
I’m sceptical, though happy to be proved wrong. What are the sources for that?
Russia is quite happy for these allegations to continue because it distracts from their appalling security around a shipping roadstead in a war zone
I know, but matt_outandabout's post suggests (unless I have misread it) that there is some truth in them.
I will try at lunch to find the opinion piece which suggested that the technology was 'assisted' by UK/RN from existing boat drones and RN/NATO control systems.
It does seem Russia's disinformation campaign is starting to target the UK more specifically (vs NATO and 'the West'), probably because they sense a weakness with the bunch of incompetent clowns we have in government...
I’m not sure I see a difference between this and supplying HIMARS and the training to use them 🤷♂️
I’m not sure I see a difference between this and supplying HIMARS and the training to use them 🤷♂️
We're into semantics territory.
We'll not learn the full story of NATO involvement until, and I'm guessing here, that Putin and his regime is done with.
I don't doubt for a second that there are NATO military intelligence and SF operatives in Ukraine. Whether they are actively engaging with Russian forces may never be publicly acknowledged
Pure speculation on my part, but could the RN drone angle on the Sevastopol raid be something UKGov is happy to have bandied about in response to 'oops, someone cut the telephone wires to Shetland' the other week?
Much more palatable for the Ru govt to push the narrative that the drone boat attack was done by the devious nasty Royal Navy than have to the accept the idea that it was carried out by a country with no functioning Navy that had also managed to develop and deploy a brand new weapon system in just 8 months...
Stuff about UK involved in damaging nord stream as well, which surely more rubbish? So attempt to divide UK from Euro?
Never forget that opinion pieces are what they say on the tin. Opinion, not fact
RE Royal Navy drones - I am struggling to find the article I read which had a set of images of Royal Navy in US testing some drone boats, one of which was much smaller than the others. Only found this:
Surely the most likely source of sea drones is the country that's been supplying their other drones....
I know Iran has used them for a while too
If anyone fancies some light reading ...
https://www.ndc.nato.int/news/news.php?icode=995
Is the NATO download for "The Handbook of Russian Information Warfare. Something for the tea break and a biscuit, possibly a custard cream.
RE Royal Navy drones...snip
The drone in the guardian article linked to is an US-made HII Remus UUV (aka drone) https://hii.com/news/united-kingdom-royal-navy-acquires-remus-100-unmanned-underwater-vehicle/
They collect data on mines, oceans, etc. The RN is training Ukr in mine clearance using drones
Warships IFR is investigating the allegations, which are not made officially by Russia. Russia says that the raid was “led by British specialists”, they don’t imply where the drones were made
https://www.warshipsifr.com/features/the-vulnerability-of-sevastopol-and-kamikaze-drones-v-russian-warship/
It was announced a day or so ago; but I still cant get my head around the fact that the Russians stopped grain shipments in the Black Sea because the Ukrainians were being mean to their fleet stationed there. The Russian UN ambassador called it "unacceptable"
They really do seem to live in a parallel universe.
Quite a debate in Switzerland atm about the ammunition for the Gepards which Germany has supplied. Ironically it reads like Switzerland is the major ammo manufacturer but doesn't allow its products to be used in combat zones.
They really do seem to live in a parallel universe
TLDR: Russia is spinning this situation as much as it can and piling on the human misery to force negotiations
At the beginning of this war hundreds of Russian-made mines were laid in the Black Sea. Each side blamed the other with Russia saying that they were demonstrably from the Ukrainian arsenal. Ukraine replied that they were from their Crimean stock, but that Russia had taken control of that stock in 2014
It's unlikely that Ukraine has laid more than a few mines because it doesn't have the capability to lay hundreds of mines under Russian naval surveillance.
The NATO Navies have dealt with drifting mines and have had a Romanian ship damaged as well https://www.naval-technology.com/analysis/nato-forces-destroy-seven-mines-adrift-in-black-sea/
Russia says that its vessels are a protecting force in the battle against the drifting mines that it didn't lay and Ukraine is therefore committing an act of terrorism by attacking its fleet, which in turn justifies it striking Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. I think that there's a space-time continuum thing going on there with pre-emptive infrastructure strikes ("...live in a parallel universe")
The mines have been popping up in international waters, which is illegal and clearly dangerous to shipping. This will cause difficulties with grain shipments if for no other reason than either owners or insurers or both withdrawing their fleets in the face of Russia's refusal to participate
Grain won't move today (Wedenesday) and Ukraine is asking for a secure "grain corridor"
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/un-ukraine-turkey-agree-no-vessel-movements-under-grain-deal-wednesday-2022-11-01/
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-zelenskiy-we-need-reliable-defence-grain-corridor-2022-11-01/
Isn’t Turkey escorting the grain ships?
Isn’t Turkey escorting the grain ships?
Ukraine is piloting the grain ships through the mines that it did lay until they're clear of the port area and in international waters.
After that the ships sail at MARSEC-3, which is the highest maritime security level (Attack Imminent) within an exclusion zone that moves with the ship in the "grain corridor". Each grain ship must report military vessels within a 10-nautical mile radius
Grain shipments are back on... https://www.trtworld.com/turkey/russia-agrees-to-continue-with-ankara-brokered-grain-deal-erdogan-62172 (TRT is the Turkish Radio and TV Corporation)
They never stopped. Hence Russias humiliating U turn.
They never stopped.
TLDR; it was extremely fragile
Fortunately, the stoppage was kept to this morning only. The only reason that they continued earlier this week was because of an existing backlog.
Lloyd's insurers were only maintaining existing cover on shipments for seven days and refusing renewals/new business because of Russia's unilateral action. Hopefully premiums won't need to rise by 25-50% now https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2022/10/31/692473.htm
Surely it should be obvious to everyone by now that everything that Russia claims is an outright lie, it’s something they’ve developed into almost an art form. Claiming that someone else is doing or planning something awful while actually planning to do it themselves to divert blame is SOP for the Russian government. Asymmetric warfare, I believe it’s called.
Moving on, I’ve just read this article about the real situation regarding Russia’s military equipment procurement situation…
https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2022/11/02/the-barren-barrels-en
I've just remembered the cover story for the Salisbury poisonings. I thought that was a bad taste joke, but it seems that its a trend with russian denials and disinformation
So can we start a fight with russia yet?
All this 'special operations' bull shit is wearing a bit thin.
It's an invasion, it's war.
It's all out War, in all but name??
More normal people die every day the longer this goes on.
Are you signing up?
So can we start a fight with russia yet?
It's much better that Russia is defeated by Ukraine, not NATO. Russian right-wingers' claims that Russia is in an existential battle with the West is debunked by the war staying as a limited conflict, with Ukraine just aiming to expel Russia from Ukrainian territory. It's hard for Putin to find justification for escalation to WMDs if they are just fighting Ukraine over the border regions. NATO joining in would make it much easier for Putin to escalate.
I’ve just remembered the cover story for the Salisbury poisonings. I thought that was a bad taste joke, but it seems that its a trend with russian denials and disinformation
It's called implausible deniability, it's denied so they don't get hassle with international courts or problems at the UN etc. but at the same time the reasoning for denial is so obviously BS they're still sending the message they intended to their enemies.
In the meantime, things are definitely afoot in Kherson. Multiple reports coming in that the Russians have abandoned (at least partially) the city. At most a small proportion of Russian soldiers still in situ. Flag has come down that used to fly on the main admin building and, more importantly, there are credible reports that the Russian ckeckpoints in Chornobaivka and Stepanivka (North of Kherson), Bilozerka (to the West) and Korabelnyi (near the docks) have been abandoned.
In addition, lots of stuff about them turfing people out of their homes on the left bank (sorry, relocating citizens for their own safety) in order that they can build an impregnable (cough!) line of defence using the river as a big old moat.
Could be a tactic to try and lure the UA into an ambush of some sort, so they will move slowly, but almost certainly is indicative of the fact that they have decided to withdraw fully from the West Bank!
Where are you seeing this?
I've found this:
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1588094632336007168?t=f_dYJgia31Be14tV4jMx8A&s=19
Looks very much like Russia planning to consolidate what they have as they did after 2014
Of course now Ukraine has much broader support to reclaim what Russia has taken
This is a pretty amazing story. Fair play
Russia have mined the dam upstream haven't they?
Russia have mined the dam upstream haven’t they?
Yes, this dam/Russian retreat scenario was forseeable (we discussed it here on p322 a week ago)
Destroying the dam will make Crimea unusable for Russia because they won't have a water supply, but there's a tremendous risk to Ukrainian forces caught downstream of an explody dam
Ukr will now take an innovative approach, as is their way
The majority of flooding will be on the eastern bank of the Dnipro though, which would harm Russia 🤷♂️
Russia has modelled the flooding, e.g https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-mined-a-ukrainian-dam-planned-false-flag-attack-zelenskyy-2022-10 Scroll down about halfway to a video. I've no idea if it's accurate though 🙂
we discussed it here on p322 a week ago
Is there a table of contents, index, and bibliography for this thread? It's a bit hard to keep up with things.
I heard reports of Russian/Wagner units shooting other Russian conscripts and contracted soldiers retreating from the front line
That must be doing wonders for morale
It's more likely they have mined the dam to destroy the causeway across the top rather than the dam itself.
Logically that makes sense - the causeway provides a route across, but destroying it won't affect water supplies to Crimea or risk drowning people on your own side.
Of the river
This is a good thread on the current situation in/around Kherson, from someone who knows what she is talking about and who links to some good articles. Good comments too
https://mobile.twitter.com/MassDara/status/1588592439928889345
I heard reports of Russian/Wagner units shooting other Russian conscripts and contracted soldiers retreating from the front lineThat must be doing wonders for morale
The MoD are claiming barrier troops are "probably" in use.
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1588418427944898561?t=KjLKZt9YCn040Enq1vxYow&s=19
May be of interest to some on this thread, Lex Friedman, thankfully he doesn’t speak much, so easily ignored and Fiona Hill, Principal Russia and Foreign policy advisor to 3 presidents in a long 3hr+ interview covering Trump, Politics, Putin/Russia and Ukraine, I think I’d have to include Fiona as one of my fantasy dinner guests.
The grain agreement is up for renewal in a fortnight and Russia is asking for exemptions to banking sanctions for Rosselkhozbank, which has been connected with President Putin's Russian Security Council Secretary and his agriculture minister
There's an exclusive from Reuters here https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/exclusive-russia-seeks-sanctions-exemptions-state-bank-ukraine-grain-deal-talks-2022-11-04/
I think the war will stop soon as China has voiced their opinion after that German bloke went to China to "beg" (check dailymail news yourself). The problem is that Germany's energy stock is not as fully stocked as UK so will suffer if the war continues. Problem is that what has the German bloke "negotiated" away?