MegaSack DRAW - This year's winner is user - rgwb
We will be in touch
Those people still have a motivation to get sanctions lifted so they can go on getting bungs from oligarchs.
Sanctions aren't going to be lifted until Russia makes concessions that no right-wing Russian nationalist leader could accept because their followers wouldn't accept them. Autocratic leaders' primary motivation is regime survival, making concessions necessary to have sanctions lifted will make them look weak. Their only option is just to hunker down and refuse to compromise with the West.
nickc
Full MemberIt appears that the Russian forces are either retreating (in good order) or are suffering a rout. Either one is as likely as the other, we’re all trying to second guess through a fog of propaganda and Telegraph channels.
You can see two things happening over and over and it's the same thing really- shit morale. Every time Ukraine surrounds or threatens to surround an area, it collapses completely. And every time Russia tries to retreat, it's basically a rout. If they had well equipped, reliable troops in good shape, then the ukrainian pocket/salient strategy would be a massive risk since you can end up with huge resistance, but instead they're reliably collapsing. And of course retreating under pressure is famously difficult for even a well ordered well led army.
And the good thing is, every time it happens, it's more likely to happen again.
And the good thing is, every time it happens, it’s more likely to happen again.
Especially because the Russians are just abandoning all their equipment and leaving it for Ukraine to capture. After each rout, Ukraine ends up better equipped than they were before, while Russia ends up weaker. Reminds me of the painting, Remnants of an Army, that's probably what the Russian army will look like in a few months.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Remnants_of_an_Army
Once the war is over Ukraine will join the EU and NATO.
When the war is 'over' there's a significant chance there won't be a NATO or EU to join, let alone anything left of the Ukraine.
When the war is ‘over’ there’s a significant chance there won’t be a NATO or EU to join, let alone anything left of the Ukraine.
Dazh... put the sherry down. Russia's actions have increased the chances of countries pooling resources to maintain their defence. That applies not just to NATO & EU, but beyond the membership of both. If you going to go for the "there's no point in anything, we're all going to be nuked" response to everything anyone posts you're going to upset people needlessly (whether deliberate or not).
FYI, I haven’t heard any chat about POW’s but it’s bound to be a massive issue.
Our village group has just delivered 3 Ambulances from Deddington to Lviv, and some water purification tablets I bought as a group by months ago are finally there. 4m litres worth, held up by Brexit bulshit and red tape.
I reckon the "compromise" may be a straightforward ante bellum peace, or near to- a line is drawn, wherever it may be, and the sop given to Russia is no reparations. They can claim whatever they want "we've denazified it and now we can return home proudly", whatever, and it avoids the constant stress and likely- inevitable maybe- failure of any reparations settlement. It's not right, but it allows it to at least <look> like a mutual ceasefire not a defeat, and it's probably no great loss (since, as I say, reparations are appropriate and fair, but hard to actually do)
(the other one is to allow Putin and his select few to flee the country and let them keep some stolen money and live it up in an island paradise- a shit option but it gets out of the "what if he's got nothing to lose" scenario)
As's been stated many times Ukraine can't really settle for less because Russia have proven themselves absolutely untrustworthy- they need to retake as much as possible or it's just a continuation of the consumption of ukraine by small bites. That applies just the same to the nuclear threat- if it works once they're guaranteed to use it again, the world is made more dangerous by capitulating not less
When the war is ‘over’ there’s a significant chance there won’t be a NATO or EU to join, let alone anything left of the Ukraine.
Why do you persist with this line? What do you gain? If you're correct we'll all be dead so you won't get the chance to say "I told you so!"
The forum will be a nicer place after nuclear Armageddon though.....
the sop given to Russia is no reparations
Yeah, it is the "West" that'll pay to rebuild Ukraine (just as it paid to disarm it of its nuclear capacity). No point chasing money from the unwilling and unable.
No way Dombas staying neutral will be accepted by Ukraine or many of the residents,
Agreed, Ukraine want all their territory back.
Russia to retain Crimea
I think that's unlikely too. Prior to 2014 Crimea was (and therefore under international law still is) an Autonomous Republic of UKRAINE. I think Zelensky will really want it back especially as Putin cancelled the agreement under which the Black Sea fleet is stationed in Crimea, which means he'll have to park his boats elsewhere and remove all Russian military from Ukraine's soil.
Sanctions aren’t going to be lifted until Russia makes concessions that no right-wing Russian nationalist leader could accept because their followers wouldn’t accept them.
Which is precisely why they're likely to lead to a coup.
The two aspects we can agree on are that they're likely to be self serving, and likely to be nationalist. Neither criteria are going to be satisfied by being President of a bankrupt country as it falls apart into independent states.
I'd forgotten how moving that song is. In fact, I'd forgotten Sting could do anything moving! Off to listen to Fragile...
the other one is to allow Putin and his select few to flee the country and let them keep some stolen money and live it up in an island paradise- a shit option but it gets out of the “what if he’s got nothing to lose” scenario
This is standard operating procedure. It's about the only off-ramp that Putin will get, but I can't see him taking it. Ukraine isn't going to invade Russia and neither is NATO so Putin just needs to keep Russian security services on his side and he's perfectly safe staying in Russia. The Russian army isn't going to overthrow him and there isn't going to be a popular uprising. The only threat to Putin is the Russian security apparatus.
Many people are concerned that Putin has annexed the areas so that he can justify using nuclear weapons to defend them.
@shermer75 makes a good point
Annexing parts of Russia allows Putin to use more soldiers there without formally declaring war, as the Russian legal system allows for more deployment on Russian soil during peacetime.
If that's his logic, maybe nukes are less likely - if people have taken the wrong conclusion and feel intimidated, he's not going to correct that view.
If a coup is going to happen it'll happen before whatever kind of nuke is launched. No one wants to become a leader of country where everything is going to get worse because you've just nuked another country.
Do you let the mad man in charge go nuclear, which will severely hurt your finances or do you take him out, seize power, renegotiate sanctions and then get even richer?
Why do you persist with this line?
Maybe because I don't think people (not just on here BTW, but everywhere) really appreciate the danger of the nuclear aspect of this. This thread for example mostly talks about this war as a something like the first Iraq war where a country is invaded by an evil neighbour, which will have a conventional ending with one side as the victor. It's not and it won't be. It's more like the cuban missile crisis than Iraq v1. The stakes are too high to pursue a conventional all-out victory, yet I'm not seeing anyone talk about that. Instead all we have is chest-beating, bravado and deranged assumptions about soldiers not obeying orders to launch nukes or military coups to depose Putin. It's genuinely terrifying and feels like we're sleepwalking into oblivion.
As’s been stated many times Ukraine can’t really settle for less because Russia have proven themselves absolutely untrustworthy
I'm pretty sure that when they annexed Crimea, Putin said he wasn't interested in taking further Ukraine territory.
The Russian army isn’t going to overthrow him
Well, there are reports coming out today that parts of the Army (newly mobilised and those on contract) have not been paid, makes me wonder if the all those Wagner mercs have been checking their bank accounts too?
The Russian military high command is being forced to take the blame for the current losses with generals being scapegoated/sacked/captured/shot in the buttocks (if ever there was a photo that summed up the last 8 months...) etc..I do wonder how long it will be until some junior officers decide to take matters into their own hands, commandeer some (of the few remaining) tanks and head for Moscow for a full and frank exchange of views with the Government and FSB?
The revolution will not be televised, but it might be shown on TicToc..
I grew up watching Threads it scared the shit out of me. And deep down still does. But you cannot un-invent the nuclear threat, you just have to show Putin and his potential collaborators that this would be truly the endgame.
Just for some background, particularly with the the talk of nuclear weapons, this is The Chief of Defence Staff speaking back in March about Ukraine and the chance of this leading to nuclear weapons being used (Putin threatened this very early on). Calm, strong words...
Russia is a lesser power this week
The nuclear threat is real.
However, as others have pointed out, you cannot allow a murderous dictator to hold the World to ransom.
The Russian armed forces have proved to wholly inadequate.
The West must stand up to Putin, if we let him win by nuclear sabre rattling then where will it stop?
The West must stand up to Putin, if we let him win by nuclear sabre rattling then where will it stop?
Exactly. Turns out we can rattle back
I'm not completely blasé about Putin using tactical nuclear weapons but I do think he's more likely to use chemical or biological ones.
I also rely on the fact that there are people with a lot more insight into and control over the current situation than me. And they're unlikely to refer to the chat section of a British mountain bike forum for guidance on how to proceed.
You never know who is on STW!!
Then we really are doomed.
which will have a conventional ending with one side as the victor
I don't think anyone thinks that. This isn't likely to "end" in our lifetimes now. Ukraine might be able to push Russia back to its borders, but it, and many other countries, will be in a state of readiness for a return to warfare for decades now. It is going to be a drain on all those countries, and other countries, including the UK, for a long long time. Even if there is a peace treaty, no one trusts Russia to stick to it. The current fighting can be ended in what you might describe as a "conventional" way, with paper agreements on borders (old or new) and military deployment (withdrawal by either/both sides and new border forces), but that isn't the end of this... we are stuck with a weak and unstable Russia who could strike out at any neighbour at any time. And, yes, a nuclear threat is real, but that doesn't end with a peace treaty either. It remains while Russia is in the state it is. It will outlast any ground war in Ukraine. Russia remain a threat no matter what the Ukrainians or any other country does next. They would be a threat if allowed to take all of Ukraine. They will be threat if pushed back to 2014 borders. They'd be a threat if Ukraine was carved in two with a new border and a much small country. The threat from Russia isn't going to be ended any time soon. It is the new reality we live with. And that is all Putin's choice.
There's quite a difference between tactical nukes and ICBMs
Some of the American stuff used recently in middle East/ Afghanistan was bigger than the tactical ones
Use of tactical nukes would be terrible but not even necessarily turn the tide for Russia, not provoke a nuclear response
Even if there is a peace treaty, no one trusts Russia to stick to it.
I’d posted this before, but it gives a fair insight into how Poland views the long term..
The negotiations run in parallel with the country’s talks with the United States over a potential purchase of about 500 M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS.
I’m not completely blasé about Putin using tactical nuclear weapons but I do think he’s more likely to use chemical or biological ones.
Possibly chemical although on a modern battlefield the usefulness is limited. Even targeting civilians they arent overly effective vs the same quantity of explosives. Possibly some use as area deterrent but questionable if worth it.
Biological also has deployment issues unless you chose something really rapid spreading and then you need to keep it away from your own side and also from neutral countries.
Plus I think he would need to look at his troops and question the sanity of trusting them with being able to use them effectively.
Maybe because I don’t think people (not just on here BTW, but everywhere) really appreciate the danger of the nuclear aspect of this.
Oh i do, i just don't bang on about it ad infinitum
It's out of my control. As others have said there are people who do know a lot more about this who are handling it.
I know someone who 'wargames' for a living [wink wink] - I feel very happy that they are one of the people who plays out lots of scenarios and then tells people in power how to play their own games...
The stakes are too high to pursue a conventional all-out victory
At the current rate that the Ukrainian counter offensive is proceeding, I'll give it a few weeks before Russia's military in Ukraine are conventionally defeated. Do you think Putin will start to throw nukes around before or after that happens?
This isn’t likely to “end” in our lifetimes now.
Isn't this just another episode of the epic saga that is simply "Europe" since the reboot in 1914?
And they’re unlikely to refer to the chat section of a British mountain bike forum for guidance on how to proceed.
What tyres for a mobile ICBM launcher?
When the war is ‘over’ there’s a significant chance there won’t be a NATO or EU to join, let alone anything left of the Ukraine.
"Always look on the bright side of life..."
I was brought up in the 70s and 80s as a RAF brat, well aware of the threat of nuclear armegeddon. The way you've fixated on it at the moment does make me think you aren't doing your wellbeing any good.
I grew up, pretty much equidistant from Lakenheath, Marham, and Mildenhall.
Even as children we knew what that would mean. Maybe not the full emotional response youd have as an adult. Probably a good thing i wasnt aware of Able Archer at the time.
I was brought up in the 70s and 80s as a RAF brat, well aware of the threat of nuclear armegeddon.
Same here. Not only had the fun of drills at home and at school (pointless, huh) but my family was volunteered to play civvies in RAF drills for a nuclear attack. Couldn't have had the threat drilled into me more. And hopes of disarmament have gone backwards in the last 8 or so years, accelerating like crazy in the last 8 months. I was still fully behind the campaign for UK unilateral nuclear disarmament at the start of this year. I'm at least wavering on that now. The work the UK & USA did getting nuclear weapons out of Ukraine looked like a clear disarmament success story to me less than a year ago. Now...? Really not sure.
Cummings is right.
https://twitter.com/dominic2306/status/1577392050714152960?s=46&t=3YzJGPOknNY-bDP-gkVH6Q
Hmm does Cummings have any questionable links to Russia and Russian money…?
Just watched that vid up there. Those ukr troops looked proper professional. No raw conscripts there
That sentiment falls down when one side keeps casually threatening it.
We've moved on a bit from JFK/Krushchev/Eisenhower
That doesn't stop him being right about this though
What tyres for a mobile ICBM launcher?
Double Fighter III
Smart Sam
I’d posted this before, but it gives a fair insight into how Poland views the long term..
Poland buying FIVE HUNDRED HIMARS ?? Good grief!! And look at what Ukraine did with a dozen!!
https://twitter.com/uarealitynow/status/1577205701440843776?s=20&t=A0f1I1jTpnXiUbOiqI1S1g
I know there were a few comments earlier about Russian POWs. I came across this on twitter, a poor sod blindfolded with a tourniquet on his leg being fed and the comment says hunger is common among the POWs
Is the Polish 500 himars, something like 10 launchers, 6 rockets per launcher and then enough refills to total 500?
Is the Polish 500 himars, something like 10 launchers, 6 rockets per launcher and then enough refills to total 500?
Think its gotta be something like that, not even sure US has that many.
If they are ordering 500 launchers then, wow.
Cummings is right.
It must make for a pretty gloomy feeling when, after trawling the internet to find something to back up your argument, Dominic Cummings is the best you can come up with
I know there were a few comments earlier about Russian POWs. I came across this on twitter, a poor sod blindfolded with a tourniquet on his leg being fed and the comment says hunger is common among the POWs
I did read today that the new conscripts are basically being mugged by the current lot when they arrive for their food and stuff so its fairly obvious the poor sods are just been thrown to the lions. Presumably Putin just thinks they're not going to live long enough to need to worry about stuff like food and shelter.
It will all end in tears.
Personally, I think if the war is to end quickly both sides should start using nukes. I don't mean full scale nuke yet, that's reserve for doom's day to massively reduce human population, but just sample of the potential destruction to see if both sides will come to their senses. Just nuke out a long "border" to create a "wall" that no human can have habitation. The result will be a zone that nobody can cross without being cooked alive inside out. Perhaps there will be peace after that. Perhaps.
It must make for a pretty gloomy feeling when, after trawling the internet to find something to back up your argument, Dominic Cummings is the best you can come up with
Odd choice I thought, there are definitely some better choices out the who are better able to articulate that argument. That arent also smeared in shit.
And dear god, the rest if his Twitter feed is a bitter resentful place.
When is the Ignore Member function going to arrive??
Is the Polish 500 himars, something like 10 launchers, 6 rockets per launcher and then enough refills to total 500?
I think you are probably right, the article is in a few places and is probably a translation fail from its source.
I think if the war is to end quickly both sides should start using nukes.
Only one side has nukes, unless you're suggesting Nato starts chucking them at the Russians?
I was brought up in the 70s and 80s as a RAF brat, well aware of the threat of nuclear armegeddon. The way you’ve fixated on it at the moment does make me think you aren’t doing your wellbeing any good.
The way some of the media channels are focussing on it at the moment, it seems some of them are desperate for the mushroom clouds. 😳
Kind of like at the start of the Gulf War(s) where the papers were gleefully describing the weapons pouring into Kuwait and the destructive power.
It will all end in tears.
Personally, I think if the war is to end quickly both sides should start using nukes. I don’t mean full scale nuke yet, that’s reserve for doom’s day to massively reduce human population, but just sample of the potential destruction to see if both sides will come to their senses. Just nuke out a long “border” to create a “wall” that no human can have habitation. The result will be a zone that nobody can cross without being cooked alive inside out. Perhaps there will be peace after that. Perhaps.
Jesus wept...
Or was that post just to stir attention because you're bored?
The way some of the media channels are focussing on it at the moment, it seems some of them are desperate for the mushroom clouds
The doomsaying creates clicks, doubled down on by the ghouls who have a weird obsession with war so it gets perpetuated ad infinitum.
The balloon knots have no idea how fortunate they are to have not seen it up close, although they could do with that does of reality to take them down a peg or two.
Your dried frog pills have run out again
Dominic Cummings? Ha ha ha!
The way some of the media channels are focussing on it at the moment, it seems some of them are desperate for the mushroom clouds.
Have to admit, im not watching any UK news presently, currently using "Ground" which seems decent.
Bit OT and directed generallyto anyone that might know, are there any worthwhile alternatives to Ground? Any known issues with Ground itself?
A Pig with Lazers said it was good, thats all the recommendations I have for it.
Does not matter who use it first so long as a “wall of radiation” is created that will be good enough.
You're a weird ****ing bloke. Appreciate that might be playing the man not the ball, but still, a ****ing odd, morbid and stupid opinion to hold.
Clout clungers are something I will never understand.
You’re a weird * bloke. Appreciate that might be playing the man not the ball, but still, a * odd, morbid and stupid opinion to hold.
Clout clungers are something I will never understand.
There is logic to all this.
The logic is to create a "waste land" that no one will fight over and to cross over.
Notice no one actually lives or works in Chernobyl?
Isn't that the best way to create a wall between East & West?
Ignore, ignore, ignore. It's raining so water must be seeping through the bridge
It's not a full moon is it?
If they are ordering 500 launchers then, wow.
probably you can get 500 of the Korean ones for the price of a dozen US ones 🙂
Found a video about a POW camp in Western Ukraine. It is a bit depressing and seems to be mainly filled with fighters from the Luhannsk Peoples Republic so possibly predates the current conflict, not sure
Ok who woke up daz and chewy? Comedy gold those two
Ok who woke up daz and chewy? Comedy gold those two
LOL! Just an idea to stop the war really as the current situation is going no way.
Russia will not give up the annexed regions and Ukraine wants it back so where will it end?
Why don’t you volunteer to go and sit where they drop this nuke you want, as an impartial observer. Just to make sure it’s done properly?
Why don’t you volunteer to go and sit where they drop this nuke you want, as an impartial observer. Just to make sure it’s done properly?
Life is short. Enjoy while we still can. That part of the world belongs to them.
How much do you get paid to spout all the bollox you come out with? I could do with a little extra income myself.
@welshfarmer I'm sure life as a PoW is pretty unpleasant. I know of my Dad's experience as a PoW for 4 years in WWII. But... He wasn't being shot at. Well, USAF bombed the shit house in the camp but hey!
It was interesting to hear their experiences and why they ended up as "collaborators". A man has to earn a buck.
How much do you get paid to spout all the bollox you come out with? I could do with a little extra income myself.
LOL! Do we really want Ukraine/Russia to fight to the end?
@chewkw So what are we looking at? A radioactive curtain from the North of Finland down to the Black Sea to replace the old Iron one?
The way some of the media channels are focussing on it at the moment, it seems some of them are desperate for the mushroom clouds.
I must be missing these media channels
Russia will not give up the annexed regions and Ukraine wants it back so where will it end?
Russia is losing the annexed regions by the hour 100s of KM at a time
This is a day old and already out of date
https://twitter.com/breaknewsi/status/1577292211762434056?t=eoFdDqi-fA3_F4e0sWQUrA&s=19
Ukrainians saying that there's been a surge in Russian troops calling their surrender hotline, 1000s have apparently done so
They get a reward for bringing in armoured vehicles
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1577722675136430080?t=Ednse4PlLDTN3vNN_HKf3A&s=19