The Ukrainian government believes it is.
Of course they do, they have a lot to lose. Do they really represent the interests of the people though? If they held a referendum now which asked whether people would prefer a Russia-leaning govt or wholesale destruction, death and misery what do you think they'd vote for? The choice between being part of NATO and the EU or under Russian influence was always a false choice. Ukrainians were sold a future that was never possible, and now they are suffering the consequences of decisions and actions which were made over their heads.
If the Ukrainian people prefer to live under Russian domination, they will decide that at the next election.
Well, only if the people of Ukraine are allowed free and fair elections, and foreign interference is stopped.
Tbf they would just move to Russia..
But after the Holodomor I bet most would rather stay.
If they held a referendum now which asked whether people would prefer a Russia-leaning govt or wholesale destruction, death and misery what do you think they’d vote for?
These Ukrainians would not vote to be a Russian puppet state. Incredibly brave people, it's heartbreaking to see the barbarity that Russia is unleashing on Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1502973427916939265
That’s amazing. I think we need a reminder of the brave Russians protesting about this war. The “blank sign” protests (and arrests) I find particularly chilling…
https://twitter.com/kevinrothrock/status/1502761903046774786?s=21
https://twitter.com/ovdinfo/status/1497263016387117057?s=21
Russian shelling of military base close to Polish border is, I think, putin saying I'm on your doorstep now NATO - what are you going to do about it?
As the base was/is a transit point for supplies into Ukraine it's making good on the warning that foreign aid - military and civilian - is fair game.
This ratchets up the pressure on NATO.
Will death of US journalist result in US acting unilaterally?
It's all very well johnson, Biden and others saying that Russia will pay a price - what price?
To putin it's just more empty threats.
As for sanctioning oligarchs - looks like decisive(?) action and plays well in the media but will have little impact; putin owns them and they know it.
At present it seems the West has been outmanoeuvred, again, by putin.
While the West and Nato dither, the death count increases, the mass exodus of Ukrainian citizens continues and villages/towns/cities are being razed to the ground.
Call me a cynic but I struggle to see how Ukrainian resistance benefits people like my mate’s family who just want to get on with their lives.
What does your Ukranian friend and their family want? To live and bring up their kids under an oppressive Putin backed regime, or keep fighting for their collective freedom in a brave bit possibly futile "better to die free men (and women)" stand?
It really doesn't matter what any of us here want. We can discuss the alternatives and state what we would do if, God forbid, it ever comes to it here, but very self indulgent to be arguing with each other thousands of miles from the crisis.
Yes Putin is an absolute **** Nugget !! Yes he’s pushing very hard/close to triggering Nato. But he won’t he’s reduced to desperate posturing to get what may save face.
Akin to child throwing a tantrum
What does your Ukranian friend and their family want?
Their view is that they wanted (past tense now as it's irrelevant) to get on with their lives and live in peace whoever governs them, and if that meant living under the influence of Russia, as they did for decades previously, then that would be better than what they're experiencing now. They definitely don't want to sacrifice their lives to defend the Ukrainian government.
The areas hardest hit are those where support for the current Ukrainian government (at the polls) was weakest. Russia is not attacking the current Ukrainian government, or their supporters, they are taking the country by force. Those defending their cities are not defending the government. If they can keep Ukraine independent, they can vote for a different government more to their liking. If they lose completely, they will never have that chance again.
If they held a referendum now which asked whether people would prefer a Russia-leaning govt or wholesale destruction, death and misery what do you think they’d vote for? The choice between being part of NATO and the EU or under Russian influence was always a false choice.
They seem to be pretty determined to resist, civilians as well as military. From those protesting in occupied cities and standing if front of tanks, to those volunteering in their tens of thousands for the local defence organisations. Are you saying that they should have just have shrugged and said 'OK then' to the invasion? If so, should other countries Putin takes a fancy to adopt the same stance? Are there some that should and some that shouldn't? If so which are which? Do you believe it is ever OK for a country to defend itself against aggression? I'm honestly not having a pop but genuinely curious if you think a sovereign country defending itself is always morally wrong or if there is something unique about Ukraine which makes it so?
I see the Lexiteers still not woken up to the fact they’ve been played by Putin too…just like Corbyn’s reluctance to condemn the Salisbury poisonings.
After the savagery inflicticted by an invading foreign power, some hope that any sort of election held by an occupying Russia in Ukraine would be free and fair? Conveniently forgetting that the Ukrainian’s already rejected a pro-Russian government in favour of a pro-EU one.
A bit like their “making Brexit work” policy - they can get in the sea.
I do wonder if there isnt a deliberate and structred fall back of Ukrainian defence forces.
Let the Russians extend their supply lines for hundreds of km. All along major roads. Then hit back with whatever they can muster.
Yes, yes, amti aircraft guns, missiles etc. How many operational ones do they have left, and how many do you need to protect a supply column the length of say Cornwall.?
Talking isn't going to work
An ex Putin advisor on R4 last week stated he doesn't bluff, and he doesn't back down as its a sign of weakness.
I would not be surprised if the usa secured some polish, Romanian, or Bulgarian hardware and retro'd onto a stealth aircraft at all.
They just need to continually knocknout tanks, rocket launches and apc's faster tjan the ruskis can resupply the front, attrition rate is critical in modern warfare.
A tiny twinkle of of hope?
"Russia is already beginning to talk constructively," Ukrainian negotiator and presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said in a video posted online.
"I think that we will achieve some results literally in a matter of days," he said.
RIA news agency quoted a Russian delegate, Leonid Slutsky, as saying the talks had made substantial progress".
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1503038283244347409?s=20&t=5ouEOtelPKZpjuEuKSnSZQ
bloke - I very much doubt it.
Let's hope so.
Totally reasonable of dazh's mate. People have beliefs and values, things they want, but are those really worth the slaughter, destruction, and displacement.
I've thought from the start it's up to the Ukrainians if they want to fight, but to me some kind of Russian-backed government looked inevitable eventually. By choosing to fight they are paying the aforementioned prices and should they lose, will end up with something worse than what they'd have got had they surrendered. Maybe they'd have chosen differently without our support/encouragement/supply from the west.
I'm sad to be writing that, trying to take a realistic view that doing the right thing isn't always the optimal choice.
I’ve thought from the start it’s up to the Ukrainians if they want to fight,
I agree
but to me some kind of Russian-backed government looked inevitable eventually.
I'm not so sure. Even if Russia 'wins' militarily, which Russian backed leader is going to put his head above the parapet when it is crystal clear the population absolutely do not want that. I don't think they will last 5 minutes. I also don't think Russia has the manpower, resources or resolve to occupy such a vast country and subjugate 40 million people who very clearly (with the exception perhaps of the eastern enclaves) don't want them there.
I would also add that the view of Dazh's mate is absolutely valid and understandable, but lots of his countrymen have a different view.
By choosing to fight they are paying the aforementioned prices and should they lose, will end up with something worse than what they’d have got had they surrendered.
Appeasement does not mollify an expansionist dictator, it emboldens them. We've seen Lukashenko's map: surrendering to Putin simply signs Moldova's death warrant. And who would be next on the list after them?
In addition, an anti-Russian insurgency would be guaranteed; surrender would not end the bloodshed. Just look at Northern Ireland (and others) to see how long these things can simmer.
And neither will Zelensky get the win he wants. His resistance on the surface looks very admirable but where does it end?
The continuity of Ukraine as an independent country presumably.
The choice has already been made now. Maybe before the drum started beating, or even before the fighting started, the population could have been swayed the other way if the government decided it was the best of a bad choice. Those other countrymen might have had views, but not so strongly held as they (very justifiably) are now. It's different now because it's been started, the population has been angered, and I at least have seen Russia weaker than I thought it would be.
On appeasement and who's next, those are strategic things, the average citizen probably doesn't care enough about these to get themselves and their family killed, their city flattened, and become a refugee.
Yes an insurgency would be guaranteed if they surrender now, as we're looking at an angered population and a heavy Russia. Perhaps it would be preferable to actual war. If they'd surrendered to start with, maybe people could have held their noses and got on with their lives in peace.
I would also add that the view of Dazh’s mate is absolutely valid and understandable, but lots of his countrymen have a different view.
Absolutely. Just look at the variety of life experiences and, consequently, opinions here. People are different so no one can honestly "speak for the people"...
No chance - these people were occupied by Russia before, as well as the Germans. They know exactly what Russian occupation would/ or will look like, and they also knew exactly what Putin would do if they did not surrender. As lots of people have said the model was there for everyone to see in Chechnya and Syria.
Internal Russian document encouraging the use of Fox News’ Tucker Carlso’s pro-Putin quotes against the West and NATO…
As if we need any more evidence of Republicans and Right-wing propaganda.
If they’d surrendered to start with, maybe people could have held their noses and got on with their lives in peace.
I do understand what you are saying and that at a personal level, maybe strategic or geopolitical considerations don't matter for some. And who can honestly say for certain how they would feel in that position? I like to think I would fight, but that's very easy to say from the comfort of my sofa. I do feel though, that Putin's megalomania and imperial ambition mean that if that was the prevailing view and response to him, the whole of Europe and maybe beyond is doomed.
tim - I'm talking about just having a Russian-backed government - like they had before, not actually being occupied.
Arising from dazh:
Their view is that they wanted (past tense now as it’s irrelevant) to get on with their lives and live in peace whoever governs them, and if that meant living under the influence of Russia, as they did for decades previously, then that would be better than what they’re experiencing now.
If it were possible before this latest fighting started, to have a referendum on Zelensky/EU & war with Russia, vs. having a pro-Russian government and peace, I'm not sure which way it'd go.
bloke - yes, impossible to say from behind this desk on this long-peaceful island. All those things matter to me, but they might not matter enough on balance. Faced with an upcoming event or outcome, people like to think they can do something (in this case, fight) to change it, or choose something else (that might not be realistic), but it's very possible that the thing will happen anyway and by doing something you end up with worse.
As if we need any more evidence of Republicans and Right-wing propaganda.
Plenty of Republicans take a very different view.
Anyway, our equivalent…
I like to think I would fight, but that’s very easy to say from the comfort of my sofa.
I wouldn’t want to fight. I’d hope for a surrender. And then I’d keep quiet and try to get my family out asap. Life wouldn’t just “continue as normal” under a brutal military occupation, it would be hell. I wouldn’t judge those around me that resisted in an armed fashion, and I would be in awe of those standing up to invading military hardware armed with nothing but words. I definitely wouldn’t blame either of those groups for the bombardments and deaths, or imagine my life could continue in the country if only everyone around me just made way for the occupation and kept quiet and acquiesced in the way I would. That’s a naive fantasy.
If it were possible before this latest fighting started, to have a referendum on Zelensky/EU & war with Russia, vs. having a pro-Russian government and peace, I’m not sure which way it’d go.
Me neither, and of course it's hypothetical. But what a horribly perverse referendum question that would be! Be bombed to oblivion if you exercise your right to choose who governs you, or become an unwilling vassal of a corrupt imperial dictatorship.
If they’d surrendered to start with, maybe people could have held their noses and got on with their lives in peace.
Perhaps. But even if they had surrendered and 'regime changed' before a single bullet was fired, the likelihood is that their peaceful lives would have been steadily diminished. Look at Belarus to see what 25 years of puppet state existence gives you: no free press, no freedom of speech, no elections, dissent against the government brings prison or torture, sanctions hobble your economy, and your children might be conscripted for Putin's next adventure. And look at Chechnya to see what happens if you really step out of line.
Surrender might have brought temporary relief - but it would have been the thin end of a fairly uncomfortable wedge. Of course that's not to say that some people would have taken it anyway.
If there were so many volunteers why did Zelensky ban 18-60 yo from leaving the country? I'd sooner live under a kleptocratic dictatorship than be pushing up the daisies, had a fair bit of practice.
kelvin - I like to think that I'd fight if the other option was military occupation, but most likely not if the other option was "living under the influence of Russia, as they did for decades previously". For example (and a very different one, I know), Brexiters probably wouldn't fight if the EU said rejoin or we invade.
dazh
And neither will Zelensky get the win he wants. His resistance on the surface looks very admirable but where does it end? Is the slaughter of thousands, the destruction of cities and the displacement of millions really worth defending a border or a government? Call me a cynic but I struggle to see how Ukrainian resistance benefits people like my mate’s family who just want to get on with their lives.
In short you stance is that any country suffering an invasion should not resist and simply comply? Are there ever times when you believe that is not the best policy?
If there were so many volunteers why did Zelensky ban 18-60 yo from leaving the country?
Exactly. How do those going on about 'living as free Ukrainians' square that with blanket conscription? Call me a coward but I wouldn't fight, I'd stay with my family and get out if I could or hole up somewhere until it was over. I certainly wouldn't be putting my life on the line to protect politicians and businessmen who stood to lose out from a Russian takeover. Ultimately it's very easy for people in the west from the comfort of their sofas to bang on about freedom and fighting against fascism when they've never had to worry about it. This is real life not some hollywood movie.
Think how different history might have been if all invaded territories had simply given up without a fight. No Rourke's Drift. No Alamo. No Custer's last stand. Those pesky Zulus, Mexicans and Native Americans could have saved themselves a whole lot of aggro if they had simply held up their hands when the invaders came and carried on living peacefully under a new administration I guess. Maybe the invaders would have treated them better in the long run too, had they not put up such resistance. Worked for the Australian Aborigines. Oh, sorry. No it didn't.
Call me a coward but I wouldn’t fight,
You don't necessarily have to fight, just stay and do your job that needs doing - food, power, water, driving around, even shopkeepers are needed.
Have been thinking from the start that China's position in relation to the situation could be key to how it plays out. Here's a link to an academic paper which is well worth reading from the 'U.S.- China Perception Monitor, titled "Possible Outcomes of the Russo-Ukrainian War and China's Choice."
It has been doing the rounds on Twitter but not seen it mentioned here, it is interesting to see a perception form that angle...the most encouraging thing is that there is a recognition that China needs to get off the fence and side with those looking to de-escalate, and in so doing could improve both world perception of China and their standing.
I'm sure I read earlier that Biden is meeting in person for talks tomorrow with China, can't find the source now - if they go with the recommendations in the article then that would be a positive outcome.
I like to think I would fight, but that’s very easy to say from the comfort of my sofa.
If I was single and had no dependents, I'd like to think I'd have the courage of my convictions on standing up to bullies. The reality is I'd have to see the damage that choice would make to my aging parents, my disabled wife, my now "old enough to have to fight" son and my teenage daughter. I suspect my convictions may crumble.
any country suffering an invasion should not resist and simply comply?
And that's the nub of the question, isn't it? And that's why mutual defence pacts exist as the geo-political level so that individual countries can't just be picked off one by one.
Call me a coward but I wouldn’t fight, I’d stay with my family and get out if I could or hole up somewhere until it was over. I certainly wouldn’t be putting my life on the line to protect politicians and businessmen who stood to lose out from a Russian takeover
I certainly wouldn't call you a coward, it's a pragmatic choice.
But it's not just the politicians and businessmen who lose out. Fair enough not fighting for them. But what about when your country has been asset stripped and there's nothing left to make a viable life for your family, but there's armed guards at the border stopping you escaping? What about when a squad of drunken troops kick the doors in of the house across the road, steal everything they've got, beat up or kill the males, rape the women? Do you take a stand then? What about when they kick in your own door?
Societies, at all levels, survive because at some point some brave/idealistic/foolish people are prepared to put themselves on the line to protect their family, their neighbours, their culture, the places where they live.
With all these concerns, surely 'Stop the War' is tha answer, rather than have I got the balls to be blown up in a competition between two ruling classes? All this bravado nonsense would be better expressed on the Christmas Airfix thread.
BillMC
Full Member
With all these concerns, surely ‘Stop the War’ is tha answer, rather than have I got the balls to be blown up in a competition between two ruling classes? All this bravado nonsense would be better expressed on the Christmas Airfix thread.
I don't think Putin is inclined to listen to protests laudable as they are.
Those blank sign protests. Just amazing
As if we need any more evidence of Republicans and Right-wing propaganda.
Tucker Carlson has the permanent look of a man that surreptitiously slipped out a fart only to realise he’s followed through in public.
Sure, but there is good reason to think this war is about Nato expansionism, not Russian expansionism.
It's deja vu all over again Rodney
Interesting article from endoverend - I can see that how China reacts will have huge implications for it's international standing going forwards, and backing Putin, or at least not trying to talk Putin down, could see it facing similar united international sanctions which would cripple China the way they are crippling Russia. The article certainly makes a good point that the right choice could secure and cement China's international position in the short-medium term.
Those blank sign protests. Just amazing
Very much in the vein of the very old Russian joke:
A man was reported to have said: "Nikolay is a moron!" and was arrested by a policeman. "No, sir, I meant not our respected Emperor, but another Nikolay!" - "Don't try to trick me: if you say "moron", you are obviously referring to our tsar!"
You have to admire the bravery of people protesting in Russia, even if they don’t now end up in the gulag.
there is good reason to think this war is about Nato expansionism
There really isn’t. If Putin doesn’t want borders with NATO then pushing Finland to join by aggressively invading another neighbour (that itself has borders with NATO) is a funny way of going about it.
EU expansion is potentially another question insomuch as a successful democratic Ukraine on the border would make the people of an autocratic corrupt Russia start to ask questions.
