Ahh opinions causing problems Oh the irony
I wonder how much those Syrian volunteers are being paid (or what Assad is getting paid which they wont see).
I am not aware of any real reason for them to be volunteering unless there has been lots of preparation work with propaganda which then has the problem of what happens if when it doesnt live up to it.
This conflict somehow seems to have united the whole country, yet some people on here still find something to argue about.
Strange.
Anyone care to define the phrase ‘puppet state’?
Generally one which is completely under the control of another state with everything bar minor decisions being made by that state.
Belarus is a good example.
stating that the situation has been exacerbated by NATO expansionism.
The issue is that it's a false narrative, NATO doesn't force countries to join it. The sovereign state applies, usually waits a few years then gets in.
NATO membership requirements are tough for the former Soviet bloc countries
I am certain that Russia has a expansionist strategy, it regularly deploys it's military and paramilitary forces to satellite states to maintain a sympathetic leader in situ. Examples Belarus and Kazakhstan etc
Anyone care to define the phrase ‘puppet state’?
A Russian MP on the BBC World Service was talking about a puppy state. I think I prefer that idea.
This conflict somehow seems to have united the whole country, yet some people on here still find something to argue about.
There is plenty of pro Russia, pro Putin stuff out there, notably from a number of academics as well as the usual suspects
Can we please keep this thread a civil discussion. If not it will be closed. Thanks.
Mods/Drac
Please don't close the thread, this is a vital topic that needs to be open and there is a lot of useful information here for mostly silent observers like myself.
If it continues to descend (once again) into bad behaviour I (and I think many others) would prefer you 'sanction' the offenders or send them to the naughty step and let the thread continue otherwise we all lose out.
Either people around the world love Putin so much they are prepared to die for him or Putin is utterly desperate and is calling in debts from his dictator buddies.
https://twitter.com/XVIVLXX/status/1502233116806725633
Over in Retrobike, we have many members spread throughout the world, but one particular group from the Ukraine. they appear to be quite a crazy bunch.
They're really into their old bikes, roast pork and strong drink, and have been posting since 2018.
They post plenty of pictures and also videos of day rides, and broken bikes 😆 but it worries me that many of these riders instead of holding an old set of XT wheels are now holding an AK47, or for than matter might even have died. I truly hope to god they all come through.
https://www.retrobike.co.uk/threads/ukrainian-oldschool-mtb.387517/
Bloody hell ^^
Most of the commentators I have read on this subject don't distinguish academia from the other professions practiced by the "usual suspects".
Mods/Drac
Please don’t close the thread, this is a vital topic that needs to be open and there is a lot of useful information here for mostly silent observers like myself.
If it continues to descend (once again) into bad behaviour I (and I think many others) would prefer you ‘sanction’ the offenders or send them to the naughty step and let the thread continue otherwise we all lose out.
Agreed. There is huge value on this thread. Most of us know our inputs aren't going to change anything, and recognise that we don't have any special insight. But it is a valuable release of the tension we are all feeling and every now and then, someone does post something genuinely valuable or thought provoking. It is just ordinary people on a forum about bicycles expressing their fears, worries, ideas but there is therapy and value in that. Most people know how to behave, it is the same 3 or 4 people who derail it every single time. Ban them (again) but perhaps for a decent amount of time. Please don't chuck the baby out with the bath water by closing this thread.
I think there is never going to be any change in stance between those on here that think NATO has played a part in Putin invading Ukraine and those that simply see it as Putin's war based on his own megalomaniac agenda.
That argument will never resolve itself on here.
I'd prefer it if the discussion was simply about the terrible conflict going on right now in front of us angry day on TV and the likely outcome. Plus ways of potentially stopping this totally unnecessary waste of life.
Anyone wondering about the independent status of Ukraine might like to read Ukraine and the United Nations
Spoiler - It's an independent sovereign state.
If it continues to descend (once again) into bad behaviour I (and I think many others) would prefer you ‘sanction’ the offenders or send them to the naughty step and let the thread continue otherwise we all lose out.
Definitely this. There's 2-3 posters on both sides of the debate who don't seem to be able to express disagreement without a sneering tone that just isn't quite enough to make me hit the report button, and are utterly incapable of accepting that someone has a different opinion that they don't like and default to attack mode.
I'd happily like to have a month of not having to put up with that on this thread, and on the others that they play on.
Plus ways of potentially stopping this totally unnecessary waste of life.
Ukraine is not going to surrender and not going to accept anything less than evicting all Russian troops from Ukrainian soil. It hope this report is accurate and that Russian military capability collapses. The faster Russia loses, the fewer people will die.
https://twitter.com/pmakela1/status/1502216676540141570
@poopscoop Agreed:
I think there is never going to be any change in stance between those on here that think NATO has played a part in Putin invading Ukraine and those that simply see it as Putin’s war based on his own megalomaniac agenda.
The challenge comes with the second part of your statement:
Plus ways of potentially stopping this totally unnecessary waste of life.
Either Putin stops and rolls the tanks (and chemical weapons) back to Russia OR Ukraine gives in and subjugates its population to Russian totalitarianism, appeasement and frankly a miserable, deprived socio-economic future. Not to mention the risks that will be created as Putin will feel even more emboldened to expand elsewhere - I'd predict somewhere along the Baltic coast FWIW.
There really isn't a middle path to end suffering at this stage. Ukraine has already 'lost' and will continue to lose one way or another. thols post above seems like a reasonable assessment as it stands.
I'm going to call now that the Russians will use chemical / WMDs in Ukraine. We didn't do anything when the red line was crossed in Syria, so Putin will go ahead again now.
Mariupol is already a second Aleppo and Kyiv will be laid siege within the coming days. WMDs will follow soon after.
This all goes back to the point that the 'causes' of the war can't be agreed upon.
So personally, I'm going to keep pushing the Putin is at fault argument.
But I accept that others genuinely believe that NATO is somehow to blame.
I will never agree with them (as you say)! And that's because I think letting Russia take Ukraine will not give peace and stability in the short, medium or long terms.
If it continues to descend (once again) into bad behaviour I (and I think many others) would prefer you ‘sanction’ the offenders or send them to the naughty step and let the thread continue otherwise we all lose out.
Definitely agree.
Descenting opinions are a good thing, and do make us question our own opinions about certain matters, but we need to stick to the 'play the ball not the man' approach. There are a minority spoiling it for everyone and drowning out the sensible discussions.
Don't say 'this poster is an idiot', say 'I think this post is incorrect because of this evidence and here is what I think could be a better interpretation which is supported by this evidence', it's really not difficult.
^^ I really hope that's the case thols2
but I can't help thinking the end game is coming for Kyiv.
It's being surrounded and will be turned to rubble/ laid siege to. A 20th century approach with 21 century weapons. Brutal.
According to the BBC though the large Russian convoy has redeployed as a possible prelude to an attack on Kyiv - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60702464
How does NATO work, is it an "exclusive/or" club or can member states form additional treaties outside of the NATO remit?
What would happen if a mutual defence pact of ex-soviet states formed, including some that were in NATO, and became engaged in Ukraine?
Do you think if NATO and the EU hadn’t encouraged Ukraine to move westwards that the Ukrainian people wouldn’t now be at the mercy of a deranged dictator with the worlds second largest war machine at his disposal?
No Ukraine would be like Belarus or even subsumed into a "Greater Russia"
I’m going to call now that the Russians will use chemical / WMDs in Ukraine. We didn’t do anything when the red line was crossed in Syria, so Putin will go ahead again now.
What do the West do then?
If there is a chemical attack in Mariupol which kills 30 people, do we respond?
If it kills 1,000?
If Putin thinks the war is lost and takes an 'if I can't have it no one will' approach and uses a nuclear weapon against Kyiv?
What if the West do respond, is that WW3? What if they don't, is that carte blanche for him to do literally anything short of attacking a NATO member? Or would he then think he could attack a NATO member having proved he is willing and capable of using these weapons and we dare not respond?
Please don't close this thread. From a selfish point of view - I have loved ones over in Kharkiv, the last 2+ weeks has been a living nightmare, and as you can imagine it is a thousand-thousand-fold for people over there.
There are not many sources of information that are easy to deal with at the moment. The majority of my actual information is from directly speaking to people who are sat frightened in their homes (or other people's homes) listening right now to Russian shelling and bombing, gunshots and planes, while their children are frightened senseless. I hope to come here to see reasonable posts, find a little information from people who know a little more than me or are better connected.
Arguing and point scoring does not help anyone. I suggest to those who feel strongly enough to argue, put your feelings to good use and donate to the AUGB or the other associations then go and get some fresh air to defrag, knowing that you are completely free and safe, something simple that is just not possible for people in Ukraine now or for the foreseeable.
Please don’t close this thread.
Likewise. I can't see how STW would benefit from closing it because things get heated. Provided it's not breaking the law I struggle to understand why it needs moderating at all.
I even wonder of Putin will attempt to install a puppet government into Ukraine now.
How long would their life expectancy be with a hostile population and many, many munitions in their control.
I think he'll try to rule it as a province of Russia but even then it will require a huge and constant military presence.
As always, getting out of Ukraine will be much harder than invading it.
Good luck to your family and friends, hope they remain safe.
My money is still on the Russian army collapsing in the next three weeks. Hopefully without too much carnage on the civilian population
It’s the insulating from both parties.
I hope you’re not including me in this as I haven’t insulated anyone.
Good luck to your family and friends, hope they remain safe.
+1
I suggest to those who feel strongly enough to argue, put your feelings to good use and donate to the AUGB or the other associations then go and get some fresh air to defrag, knowing that you are completely free and safe, something simple that is just not possible for people in Ukraine now or for the foreseeable.
AUGB
Help Ukraine Emergency Appeal: https://www.gofundme.com/f/helpukraine
Disasters Emergency Committee
UKRAINE HUMANITARIAN APPEAL: https://donation.dec.org.uk/ukraine-humanitarian-appeal
Provided it’s not breaking the law I struggle to understand why it needs moderating at all.
It needs moderating because there are plenty of people with interesting info and thought provoking opinions who get crowded out by the usual blowhards. It'll be good for a few pages, and suddenly there's 100 posts in a row by about 6 people dominating the whole thing, having much the same argument they had 30 pages back. It makes the thread less useful and less interesting.
My money is still on the Russian army collapsing in the next three weeks.
I'm sad to say I'd take your money...
The Russian Army has been 'successfully' shelling Mariupol for weeks now. Those guys firing rockets into the city and innocent civilians don't seem ready to collapse.
Putin is also already hedging his bets by recruiting from Syria and Central Africa (see above), plus he has Wagner et al if things really go pear-shaped, so I'm afraid collapse is wishful thinking.
In the same way last week people were assuming that Russian convoy (which is now beginning to encircle Kyiv) would be a sitting duck... Most of it is still intact and its guns are already pointing at Kyiv.
Likewise. I can’t see how STW would benefit from closing it because things get heated. Provided it’s not breaking the law I struggle to understand why it needs moderating at all.
Because it’s not about legal complications, its about the forum rules and the fact it’s requiring more and more of our time to mod. We are already trying to deal with those who are disrupting the thread.
I am wondering how many artillery shells and rockets the Russians can actually supply, and continue to manufacture?
I cant be the only one who has been tempted to quote post two from the CV thread in here.
im concerned that while western governments have been reasonably coordinated in their sanctions approach, that international business wading into the situation is just removing the few face saving about turn options available to Putin..
its about the forum rules and the fact it’s requiring more and more of our time to mod. We are already trying to deal with those who are disrupting the thread.
There are individuals whose postings follow a relentlessly vexatious pattern to get a minor point across that ends up derailing the thread. They are not adding to the discussion just playing stupid pseudo-intellectual games to show the world how wonderful they are.
We all know who they are. Ban them for a week.
If the Russians are struggling with fuel and equipment and it is going to get cold those soldiers he's going to bring in are not going to fair well. The cold will be well outside their normal operating conditions. It'd feel bloody hard for us to spend a day in. They, worryingly, need to be used in a shock and awe way and given they are also expendable it could get horrific.
We all know who they are. Ban them for a week.
Dare I ask who they are? I think you need to be specific as I don't really know who you're talking about. Seems to me all you're doing is suggesting that people who disagree with you should be banned.
I'm actually wondering what the UK supplies are like of stuff like NLAWs and MANPADS - I fully support giving weapons to Ukraine but I'm hoping they're replenishing stocks in the background in case things do escalate....
Also wondering if we or the US has a good surface-to-ship system that can be easily deployed and used with minimal training - those Russian Navy ships lurking off the Ukrainian coast would be sitting ducks (given they've already taken one out with MLRS) and would be far more of a loss and humiliation to the Russians than tanks etc.
Facebook has just popped up with a request for donations for a sponsored ride from London to Kyiv. I appreciate the motives but….
EDIT just re-read it and they are going to be doing the distance between London & Kyiv not the actual route. As you were😐
Dare I ask who they are? I think you need to be specific as I don’t really know who you’re talking about. Seems to me all you’re doing is suggesting that people who disagree with you should be banned.
I think you probably know who they are. On both sides of the debate on this thread. And other threads.
And a week isn't long enough. The mods have been trying to reduce their impact on the quality of the forum debates for a few weeks now, and they are just taking the piss.
I'll take a month long ban if anyone finds this offensive.
Facebook has just popped up with a request for donations for a sponsored ride from London to Kyiv. I appreciate the motives but….
Facebook suggested I might like to join the Ukranian Foreign Legion. Their algorithms are clearly not understanding how a keyboard warrior operates 🤣
Maybe if people find themselves having an endless circular argument on this thread they could take a break and move over to the 'Tell me an interesting fact' thread for a while.
Seems to me that thread was custom-designed for endless pedantic arguments.
Facebook suggested I might like to join the Ukranian Foreign Legion. Their algorithms are clearly not understanding how a keyboard warrior operates 🤣
have they got a cyber warfare division?
or a social media corps?
I am wondering how many artillery shells and rockets the Russians can actually supply, and continue to manufacture?
They are reported to have limited stocks of modern smart weapons. They will have huge stocks of old cold war stuff. Whether it's been stored properly and hasn't degraded is another question. That stuff won't include modern smart weapons but I think Russia probably has enough artillery shells and rockets to level every city in Ukraine. Finding enough trucks and fuel to deliver it seems to be their most urgent problem.
