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"Stats for lefties" with Reform on top. 🙂
It's a yougov poll showing the trajectory of the green party.
Reform are polling at about 20% in Scotland aren't they? Not much lower than in England, especially considering a lot of the nationalist vote there will be taken by SNP.
SNP and reform are not competing for the same votes. SNP are left of centre civic nationalists Reform are hard right blood and soil nationalists. Reform are against scots independence
reform are polling significantly lower in Scotland and predicated to get a handful of seats in holyrood. .(and that is without tactical voting. it willbe lower) In Westminster they are predicted to be the largest party.
Holyrood is a much more proportional system tho it looks likely to fail on this this time round giving the SNP more seats than votes.
Latest polling for holyrood
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SNP: 65 (Majority)
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GRN: 18 (Opposition)
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RFM: 17
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LAB: 13
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CON: 8
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LIB: 8
Scottish polling for westminster
SNP 47, lib dem 5, green 4, tory 1, labour a big fat zero reform big fat zero
It'll be interesting to see how tactical voting plays out. It suspect it will be Reform vs Whoever is Not Reform in my constituency. But we will also have another layer of who would be not likely to form a coalition with Reform. So you might get previously moderate Tories voting LD or even something else if a vote for Tory looks like ending up a Reform vote. Because things are very polarised that sort of thing will come into play. But I don't think everyone will realise that or even know how to play it correctly (not saying I would, by the way). And the 'whoever won't form a coalition with Reform' vote might also be split, as some moderate Tories might be able to hold their nose and vote Labour, others might not!
I think tactical voting will be a huge deal and will make a differnce
The chancellor will indicate that she believes it wouldn't be fair or affordable, in all likelihood, to offer every household help
Even the Tories managed that.
Rachel Reeves is an utter charlatan that shouldn't be anywhere near the control she has.
Does she not understand the implications if things deteriorate even more?
Everything she has done has created an unnecessary boxed-in framework to not offer appropriate solutions and for sure it will bite them so much come the elections.
Literally everyone has noticed that the OBR are not fit for purpose; her fiscal rules are doing more harm than good and her flaccid ignorance of letting the BoE suggest their could be 3-4 interest rate rises now (in response to oil increases) prove she understands nothing about doing economically what is best for the public.
I pointed this out a while ago at the last oil spikes -that it is part of the government's job to expect things like this to happen.
Anyone with half a brain can see going forward how much of a mess the world's energy is in and few Western countries are planning for it - not least shocks like this.
(Even Centrist Dad Macron took full control of EDF in 2023 to keep bills low.)
Labour are the worst of all worlds in terms of economic political strategy. They don't have the crunchy label of populism but the damage they are doing economically is terrifying in terms of letting the UK implode.
It will be reflected at the polls.
I think tactical voting will be a huge deal and will make a differnce
A bigger difference will be how people disregard what mainstream parties now offer and move to the edges to make a choice.
As political solutions are not offered - as per the mess Labour and the Tories have delivered - people will become more desperate and even the middle class is now in free-fall economically - tactical voting will become much less relevant as people go back to voting on solutions.
You can see this with the rise of the Greens and Reform clearly.
Lab getting a moderate bounce & reform a drop, a lot of that associated with Trumps mad war & their respective stances on it, I reckon
https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:utjyvk6axwpvnvnptzptvqoh/post/3mhsatnk5hk27
5pts is smallest gap between lab & ref in a while, as the economic fallout from this all extends out over the coming months it will be intersting to see if Labour can keep hitting the right notes on Trump, while reform flounder
also I suppose worth noting, the Tories in 4th is remarkable, whats the chances of them hitting 5th place after the locals
1% in a poll like that is meaningless though, it's Reform in front (and peaked for now, but they know how to throw everything at the right period of campaigning, so don't get too optimistic at this point) and the other three parties pretty much neck and neck. I'm not hugely surprised at the Greens polling well (although I was very surprised at them taking a safe Labour seat), but I honestly thought the Conservatives would be lost at this point, and on single figures. Who still thinks the answer to any question is, "The Conservative Party"?
but I honestly thought the Conservatives would be lost at this point, and on single figures. Who still thinks they are the answer to any questions?
I suspect theres still plenty of right wingers out there that cant stand farage
As political solutions are not offered - as per the mess Labour and the Tories have delivered
Do you mean over the last 50 years? Because if you mean the current government, I don't see any "mess" they have delivered, but I can see lots they haven't put right.
When there were two main parties first-past-the-post kind of worked - now the gaps are so small between five parties PR would make much more sense.
PMQs very much about one issue only... "drill baby drill" vs "go further faster" on the switch to renewables.
PR would make much more sense.
Our current situation is just the trad 2 parties split up into their constituent parts . Next govt is probs going to be a coalition of either right wing or left wing parties. How they get there isn't going to make that much difference.
It does because at the moment yo get highly distorted results - like the current parliament with a huge labour majority on a minority of the vote. Small shifts in % can give large shifts in seats gained, PR systems are much better as you do not get wasted votes as many are under FPTP and you get true representation of parties popularity
Reform storming out of PMQs made me chuckle...
I haven't seen that, and to be fair, it must have been a challenge for them to wake up and do their ****ing job by actually attending parliament, such effort must have left them rather tired and emotional.
In other news, does anyone have that picture of Jimmy Hill handy?
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg09w1wvjqo
James Murray (chief secretary to the treasury) on LBC now basically saying the government can't do a thing to help with petrol / cost of living because of errr Liz Truss's budget. The reliance on a market that absolutely doesn't work for the consumer/voter is absurd.
Basically.
I've never known such an impotent bunch of spreadsheet losers.
Check the fuel finder website is apparently the answer.
This government absolutely are so commited to not improving people's lives that it will be the end of them. They've zero understanding of the power that a government with its own bank can wield.
I mean - look how long it took to get a cost of living thread on here - because at last the middle-classes are now being taken down too.
Labour will have to deal with this as opposed to just paying flimsy lip service to the failing economy. The economy doesn't just fix itself. Hence why various other countries are making interventions.
They absolutely do not deserve power.
How about we let fuel prices stay high and offer direct help only to those that most need it?
Means tested petrol - that will be easy to implement
I meant direct help… if recipients used the money for public transport of something else, that’s on them.
Just wondering how many more people need to be sacked before Starmer admits he's a useless liar?
The Tories are coming back for sure. And you've just given them even more ammo.
sadly we don't do that sort of intervention because the government's hands are tied. 🤔.How about we let fuel prices stay high and offer direct help only to those that most need it?
However you've clearly got to sort supply in this case.
Long term I know.
This will hurt and the fuel has gone up dramatically recently but historically it's not that high really - it's just along with everything else it's a compounding situation.
How about we let fuel prices stay high and offer direct help only to those that most need it?
it will cost more to figure out 'who needs it' than the payments themselves
I've never known such an impotent bunch of spreadsheet losers.
Check the records for 2010-2024.
Tories are meant to do that sort of stuff and came to power with this bullshit in mind.
Labour are meant to improve lives, and didn't campaign on this.
Expectation.
Besides these twerps are even more obsessed with bogus fiscal treachery than the Tories were.
And as much as I despire everything the Tories stood for under their terrible management I got:
£2000 economic development grant
A decent energy subsidy
I also managed to get in at the Docs 50% of the time. I literally can't get in currently.
Not much I know but way more than these foolish no-nothings.
How about we let fuel prices stay high and offer direct help only to those that most need it?
it will cost more to figure out 'who needs it' than the payments themselves
Cost to government is pretty irrelevant.
If the government doesn't take some of the cost the public takes it via private personal debt which is what is happening now.
Means-testing (as taxation exists to recover and remove money) is a bit daft though that said Reeves has found a way to account for cheap EV fuel. So it's quite doable when she's on the clawback.
You can have an enlarged government debt by their own design (not our fault they came up with this fully-funded nonsense) that doesn't need repaying or you can actually have high personal debt which ultimately cripples society.
Labour are in the second camp.
Oops.
Turns out, unsurprisingly, that Mandelson did fail vetting.
Apparently though ministers were completely ignorant about this. I am not sure thats overly believable outside of some truly determined attempts to be ignorant about it.