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T^o me this is a classic bye election punishment vote / tactical vote and not that significant. See the number of lib dem bye election wins over the years that mostly revert back at the next GE. Now its the greens that get the benefit rather than lib dems
I don't think so.
It's solid messaging for what people want.
Remember how Starmer campaigned in 24? Moving to Green is not the same as moving to the Lib dems. That's gone.
It's a different era that the Centrist vote is a safe bet decade. We're past all that now.
That's what Labour haven't got their head around.
Don't expect Greens to replicate this everywhere but this seat was nowhere near one of their target seats I don't believe.
I'm sure Kier will see last night's result and draw the conclusion that they need to move to Reform's vote rather than people want progressive politics.
Depressingly, I think you're spot on.
I'm sure Kier will see last night's result and draw the conclusion that they need to move to Reform's vote rather than people want progressive politics.
Depressingly, I think you're spot on.
Even though he's theoretically losing 1 in 4 to Green?
But yeah he will in classic Starmer fashion do loads of stupid things.
I wouldn't read too much into this for Badenoch (or Davey as it happens) on the national level. If you were a Tory or Libdem supporter, you're very likely to have thrown your vote behind one of the other three parties if you voted. It's very bad for Starmer though.
What I am finding interesting here is the gap between the polls and the result. Polling models either over-estimated Reform or under-estimated Green. If they then adjust their models it could change the landscape especially in the run up to the Senedd elections in May.
47.5% turnout is such a low mandate. Has to be amongst some of the lowest in liberal democracies.
It's clear to me that Parliament needs somebody like Hannah Spencer. The place is crumbling so her plumbing and plastering skills will make a big difference.
The amount of people that didn't vote for the scum is heartening.
Still... surprised that half of voters were happy to sit back and let others choose.
47.5% turnout is such a low mandate. Has to be amongst some of the lowest in liberal democracies.
Unfortunately, it's a reflection of the enthusiasm (or not) for what's on offer
Remember those now halcyon days when we didn't think it could possibly get any worse than the choice between Jeremy Corbyn and Boris Johnson?
Starmer's got to go now surely. It was his decision to block Burnham, it was his decision to move the party right and ostracise and force out left wingers from his party, it was his decision to rip up the 10 pledges which won him the leadership, and all the decisions which went back on their manifesto promises were his too. It proves the point that just like when Corbyn was leader, the rightwing of the labour party will put factional interests and the interests of billionaire donors and supporters before that of the party, their supporters and voters and the country. They'd rather see a reform govt than a Labour govt led by Burnham or someone else from the soft-left.
Come on Angela, get on with it!
Starmer's got to go now surely.
Not until he takes the hit for the electoral armageddon that awaits in May
Then he's toast
What I am finding interesting here is the gap between the polls and the result. Polling models either over-estimated Reform or under-estimated Green
I looked at a couple of bookies and they both had Greens as strong favourites.
Not until he takes the hit for the electoral armageddon that awaits in May
Yeah not much point Rayner moving until then. He should be doing the right thing and stepping down though instead of clinging on. Instead though we know what the cynical narrative will be from the bunker. It won't be that working class people used their voices to signal to the billionaire elite that they're sick of being bled dry while they get ever richer. No it'll be that a bunch of islamic extremists voted against labour because of Gaza.
And on the Greens, how refreshing is it having a party which is comfortable speaking the truth about politics, economics and culture war issues? For so long politicians and commentators in the media have treated politics like a game which has rules and guard rails about what you're allowed to do or say. Now we have a party who are willing to call out the problems and speak the plain truth about how our society works and how we can do things differently.
Starmer's got to go now surely.
Not until he takes the hit for the electoral armageddon that awaits in May
Then he's toast
Not at all. there is precisely zero need for him to go and it will be very difficult to force him out.
I note our resident 'if you vote green you'll be handing the country to Farage' types are quiet this morning. Turns out voting green is the way to stop him. 😀
It will be interesting how the right wing press start treating the greens .
They are already launching the offensive - there is a hilarious rant by Daniel Hannan in the Mail (I like to keep up with the enemy mindset) that pulls no punches. What is so ironic is you could literally substitute the words Reform for Green, closing borders for opening them and Palestine for Israel and the article would be spot on. Coming from the architect of Brexit however its beyond parody.....
Duplipost.
Since I have a second post to fill - how dubious does that Democracy Volunteers claim sound? Anyone ever heard of them before yesterday? I sure hope they'll be presenting their evidence to the police.
It will be interesting how the right wing press start treating the greens .
Apparently they want to install a drug dealer outside every school gate to sell all the kids crack cocaine. 🙄
In reality they're the first political party to advocate a sensible, real-world approach to drugs policy, as opposed to the hysterical 'war on drugs' nonsense that even the police keep pointing out has comprehensively failed.
The fact that the Labour Party decided to take the same line as the Daily Telegraph, Daily Mail, GB News etc on this matter is just one more reason to completely despair at them and how they've now just completely lost their way.
Anyone ever heard of them before yesterday?
Yep, they're legit. I often see and speak with them at hustings events, elections and by-elections. Generally good people. I think they're partly funded by the Rowntree Trust. As the name suggests they're all just volunteers, I don't know what their instructions are regarding alerting returning officers or other officials if they see/hear anything, or whether they just observe.
I think this is a fairly big blow to Reform.
they were always going to struggle here. the constituency is weirdly schizophrenic, the folks that want to vote against them mostly live in the wards that vote for left wing parties and are motivated to come out. Even in Denton there was very little doorstep support for them. I think it's difficult for a party like reform to move [even socially-conservative] Labour voters .
T^o me this is a classic bye election punishment vote / tactical vote and not that significant.
Unsurprisingly I tend to agree, There was a huge amount of "I'm normally solid Labour, but they need a kick up the backside" and "If it was Burnham I'd vote for you" type comments The media are losing their minds (obviously) and I've seen some proper nonsense on SM. I wouldn't bet on the Greens retaining it.
Anyone ever heard of them before yesterday?
Yep, they're legit. I often see and speak with them at hustings events, elections and by-elections. Generally good people. I think they're partly funded by the Rowntree Trust. As the name suggests they're all just volunteers, I don't know what their instructions are regarding alerting returning officers or other officials if they see/hear anything, or whether they just observe.
Hmm. An observing body that doesn't intervene, raises grievances only after the polls have closed and seemingly doesn't gather evidence of wrongdoing seems.... A bit pointless? Certainly, Manchester council are just as independent and said no-one at any of the polling stations reported any issues. It just seems a bit suspicious, to me.
Instead though we know what the cynical narrative will be from the bunker. It won't be that working class people used their voices to signal to the billionaire elite that they're sick of being bled dry while they get ever richer. No it'll be that a bunch of islamic extremists voted against labour because of Gaza.
The approach taken by Heidi Alexander on Today this morning seemed to be to paint Reform as dangerous and the Greens as deluded ideallists, with Labour being the only sensible people willing to make the hard decisions. Lots of emphasis on things like the Greens wanting to leave NATO and stuff like that.
It just seems a bit suspicious, to me.
Like I said, I don't know what their instructions are, I have seen them speak with officials before, but only to ask about how many voters have been refused and stuff like that, and they're not always at every polling station. Mostly you can see them recording speeches and questions at Hustings events. They're often students.
Lots of emphasis on things like the Greens wanting to leave NATO and stuff like that.
The policy area on their website says obviously oblique things like "We will work with NATO" and their leader has said he wants to leave; should they not be questioned like any other party?
Hmm. An observing body that doesn't intervene, raises grievances only after the polls have closed and seemingly doesn't gather evidence of wrongdoing seems.... A bit pointless?
I can see why that way of working might be important in certain countries/regimes but then why are they even allowed in polling stations if they're not casting their own votes? I assume that they had to get permission to be allowed in as observers, but I'd have thought that might require legislation. What's to stop anyone else setting up another, similar, group?
I was thinking more if you add labours vote to reforms, then the right wing racism promoting parties won.
if you add the Greens vote to Labours vote, we won
Did she say that? In the clip she says that there was a big vote against Reform. Much the same point as @olddog and others made on the previous page. Something for Labour to take on board, before they consider chasing that pro-reform vote any further.
Chancers.
All their latest campaigning was ignoring the fact the green party even existed.
They said it was between Labour or Reform.
Anyway, as a show of thanks for lightening my day/week and finally giving me something to hope for in politics rather than just feeling utterly depressed, I just joined up and sent the Green Party some cash. Might even get involved with campaigning but that would feel a bit weird as I actually quite like our local Labour MP. I hope he will feel more free to express his real opinions on policy (like many labour politicians I'm pretty sure he's far more left wing and progressive than his party PR machine allows him to be in public) in the next couple of years running up to the next election. If he's lucky he might even hang on to his seat.
It appears to be that tactical voting is very much in play to stop Reform getting in. People simply don`t want either Labour or Reform to get in .. so the Loony parties are getting thr votes instead - Greens or Plaid Cymru (in Wales) - I think this tactical voting is very misleading and a general election, where people will [hopefully] give more thought to the Greens or Plaid Cymru actual policies affecting them, will very likely be an altogether different picture.
As of now, its trying to work out which party is the best of a very very bad bunch.
there is a hilarious rant by Daniel Hannan in the Mail (I like to keep up with the enemy mindset) that pulls no punches.
I don't know why people feel they need to apologise or pretend they weren't really reading the Daily Mail. The front page is always rubbish but the rest of the paper is good. And the lifestyle pages are excellent
I do like authenticity in my politicians but its a rare qualityYes all the parties might want to take a look at the candidates they field! The greens would be daft to think this is a sign they can turn up anywhere and pull off the same effect with a random person - but if they can find local mid 30's female plumbers who left school at 16 in each of the constituencies where reform are fielding a dull bloke in a suit who studied politics in both the UK and US and looks like every other career politician whilst claiming to be working class despite his parent having been senior NHS managers and lives hundreds of miles away, then they can probably replicate it! If labour have had controversy over their candidate selection and fielded a local councillor who can be "blamed" for everything bad locally for the last 12 years - even better.
(like many labour politicians I'm pretty sure he's far more left wing and progressive than his party PR machine allows him to be in public)
What is the point of them if they do not say what they think when they're elected?
so the Loony parties are getting thr votes instead - Greens or Plaid Cymru (in Wales)
As opposed to the good 'common sense' parties like Reform, the Tories, and Labour?
Unfortunately the loonies have been in charge of the asylum for quite some time now, and the risk of the particularly fascist loonies to getting the keys at the next election are still pretty high.
Starmer's got to go now surely. It was his decision to block Burnham
I disagree. There was a fair chance Labour could lose the by-election and the mayoral seat. I think keeping Burnham in place as Mayor is more valuable than reducing the parliamentary majority by next to nothing.
Anyway, I like Hannah's victory speech.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/clyz4ellkd7o
It appears to be that tactical voting is very much in play to stop Reform getting in. People simply don`t want either Labour or Reform to get in .. so the Loony parties are getting thr votes instead - Greens or Plaid Cymru (in Wales) - I think this tactical voting is very misleading and a general election, where people will [hopefully] give more thought to the Greens or Plaid Cymru actual policies affecting them, will very likely be an altogether different picture.
As of now, its trying to work out which party is the best of a very very bad bunch.
So are Plaid any more loony then any of the governments we have had in power?
Poly - I was trying to think of an authentic politician and struggling with any current ones. Swinney? Anyone got any?
It’s an interesting outcome. I do wonder how much is it just to kick the main parties. It’s not as if the result makes any difference to the parliamentary arithmetic