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https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1986484656405918172?t=zMqn_YCsCPOjfH174H_J1A&s=19
Be very interesting after the budget.
Centrism about to drop of the bottom of the list.
That's remarakably like another map
Am I the only person who is genuinely terrified by the potential for a majority reform government, especially given the power such a government would have under the UK Constitution
I know - tactical voting, rainbow coalition ... But this is a really high stakes game
I know you are not an honest contributor to political threads, but that is the most ridiculous and frankly idiotic claim made for a very long time
@MSP, I don't know why you have personal grudge against me, we've never met, you don't know me. I've literally no idea why. You've even had post deleted, and yet here you are... Don't you think it's just a bit weird?
As for the claim, If you had anything to to do with the disputes panel led by Christine Shawcroft, you'd know what I was talking about.
Am I the only person who is genuinely terrified by the potential for a majority reform government, especially given the power such a government would have under the UK Constitution
In some ways.
But I think we have terrifying now really. The bad stuff has been in motion a long time.
I've watched my area fall apart.
Just hanging a different shade of blue on the door - it's not good, but it's not been good for a long time.
If things have to get bad before they get good then so be it, that's the path that's been chosen.
Or we push back ... With something new.
Having Farage actually in charge of something, where he has to lead, might be illuminating, especially seeing how poorly Reform appear to function at a council level; people may actually see them for what they are: A racist, one trick pony of a party with no other skills to bring to the table.
Sadly, the country will suffer right up until the time by-elections happen as the MPs drop away or the infighting really begins.
Am I the only person who is genuinely terrified by the potential for a majority reform government, especially given the power such a government would have under the UK Constitution
No mate, you are most certainly not.
Am I the only person who is genuinely terrified by the potential for a majority reform government, especially given the power such a government would have under the UK Constitution
It won't be great but whatever the government, not much actually changes and not many people will notice any difference. The poor and trodden on will still be poor and trodden on, the wealthy will continue to get wealthier and the people in the middle will just carry on as they are now. I have had an easy life since I started working in 1987 and through all the governments we have had it has made pretty much no difference at all to me personally.
It is why we won't actually see such a party as the Green Party getting a substantial presence, because too many people don't really want to risk any change as they are just about doing okay in the current system.
Am I the only person who is genuinely terrified by the potential for a majority reform government, especially given the power such a government would have under the UK Constitution
Well firstly the level of support for Reform that the polls are suggesting makes a Reform majority quite unlikely. And secondly I would expect any Reform government to be deeply unstable and in all likelihood short-lived, even more so if in coalition with the Tories.
After a hundred years of alternative Tory-Labour governments the more long-term consequence of a temporary Reform premiership might actually be more positive than some might imagine if it disrupts the political logjam which characterizes and has paralysed UK politics.
And that, I am sure, is actually probably what is in the minds of many people who out of desperation are now considering voting Reform. After all many people voted Labour in last year's general election out of desperation following 14 years of Tory rule, not because they had a clear vision of what they were voting for.
Furthermore in the unlikely event that the above poll was replicated in a general election and the Greens emerged the second largest party that would be a massive step forward imo. Having a party other than Labour or the Tories as the official opposition would be earth shattering.
I don't know if the findings of any recent MRP poll would allow the formation of a rainbow coalition, which is a distinct possibility, but if one was formed I think we can safely assume that proportional representation would be a red line demand for at least some of the parties within the coalition, that would be a massive step forward for UK politics imo.
Labour could of course with its huge majority introduce legislation for proportional representation right now but we know that Starmer really isn't interested in any radical changes or upsetting the status quo. The long-term consequences of his disastrous premiership probably, as I keep pointing out, worry Starmer about as much as Nick Clegg is worried about the consequences that his leadership had to the LibDems. Self-serving careerists in politics just leave the mess they have created behind and get on with the next stage of their careers.
Finally although it won't be happening I have to say that I would dread Kemi Badenoch becoming prime minister more than Nigel Farage becoming PM. I consider her to be probably even more right-wing than Nigel Farage. Furthermore as a man who strives to be a populist Farage has the constraints that places on him, I don't believe that Badenoch feels similar constraints, I am sure that she doesn't give a monkeys how much the country might hate her, in fact she would probably think that it would make her more like Thatcher.
The question though is who will be the Tory leader when the general election comes in less than 4 years time?
Am I the only person who is genuinely terrified by the potential for a majority reform government
It is terrifying yes, but I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that it needs to happen so we can lance the boil. A good mate of mine - who voted Labour last year - is a Reform supporter, he won't admit it outright but everything he says is from the Farage playbook, that Labour and the Tories have stopped listening to the people and are only in it for themselves, that the only solution is someone new who can rip up the status quo, that immigration and 'wokery' have gone too far etc. He's right on some of that of course, but we all know the answer to that isn't Reform, because they will double down on the tory agenda of selling of the last vestiges of the state (the NHS mostly) to private capital, cut taxes for the rich, and destroy what's left of the welfare state. He won't see it though until it happens, and millions like him won't either because at the moment they think Reform are the radical answer to the UK's problems. I don't see any other way of bursting the bubble than them being in govt unfortunately.
Having Farage actually in charge of something, where he has to lead, might be illuminating, especially seeing how poorly Reform appear to function at a council level; people may actually see them for what they are: A racist, one trick pony of a party with no other skills to bring to the table.
Sadly, the country will suffer right up until the time by-elections happen as the MPs drop away or the infighting really begins.
Yeah, this is what a lot of people (including me) thought about Trump first time around. "He can't organise anything, he's incompetent, everyone will see he's incompetent, and he'll shed support and be gone". Well, that was totally wrong...
He won't see it though until it happens, and millions like him won't either because at the moment they think Reform are the radical answer to the UK's problems. I don't see any other way of bursting the bubble than them being in govt unfortunately.
The problem is that Reform are carefully watching Trump, who is following the Orban playbook of removing checks and balances on his power, in particular reshaping the media in a way that is very hard to roll back. Farage has made no secret of his admiration for Trump, Orban and even Putin. The Brexit vote which arguably helped put us in the position we are now shifted the Overton window firmly to the right, a Reform government would likely shift it even further.
He won't see it though until it happens, and millions like him won't either because at the moment they think Reform are the radical answer to the UK's problems. I don't see any other way of bursting the bubble than them being in govt unfortunately.
The problem is that Reform are carefully watching Trump, who is following the Orban playbook of removing checks and balances on his power, in particular reshaping the media in a way that is very hard to roll back. Farage has made no secret of his admiration for Trump, Orban and even Putin, the shift from populist to authoritarian is not uncommon. The Brexit vote which arguably helped put us in the position we are now shifted the Overton window firmly to the right, a Reform government would likely shift it even further.
The question though is who will be the Tory leader when the general election comes in less than 4 years time?
Because the fortunes of the Tory Party are highly unlikely to change over the course of the next four years I fully expect a succession of leaders. Whoever replaces Kemi Badenoch now is unlikely to last much longer than she has I would have thought. So it's anyone's guess who will be Tory leader at the time of the 2029 general election
Blimey the double-post gremlins are having a field day today
Having Farage actually in charge of something, where he has to lead, might be illuminating, especially seeing how poorly Reform appear to function at a council level; people may actually see them for what they are: A racist, one trick pony of a party with no other skills to bring to the table.
Sadly, the country will suffer right up until the time by-elections happen as the MPs drop away or the infighting really begins.
Yeah, this is what a lot of people (including me) thought about Trump first time around. "He can't organise anything, he's incompetent, everyone will see he's incompetent, and he'll shed support and be gone". Well, that was totally wrong...
Having Farage actually in charge of something, where he has to lead, might be illuminating, especially seeing how poorly Reform appear to function at a council level; people may actually see them for what they are: A racist, one trick pony of a party with no other skills to bring to the table.
Sadly, the country will suffer right up until the time by-elections happen as the MPs drop away or the infighting really begins.
Yeah, this is what a lot of people (including me) thought about Trump first time around. "He can't organise anything, he's incompetent, everyone will see he's incompetent, and he'll shed support and be gone". Well, that was totally wrong...
Having Farage actually in charge of something, where he has to lead, might be illuminating, especially seeing how poorly Reform appear to function at a council level; people may actually see them for what they are: A racist, one trick pony of a party with no other skills to bring to the table.
Sadly, the country will suffer right up until the time by-elections happen as the MPs drop away or the infighting really begins.
Yeah, this is what a lot of people (including me) thought about Trump first time around. "He can't organise anything, he's incompetent, everyone will see he's incompetent, and he'll shed support and be gone". Well, that was totally wrong...
Yeah, this is what a lot of people (including me) thought about Trump first time around. "He can't organise anything, he's incompetent, everyone will see he's incompetent, and he'll shed support and be gone". Well, that was totally wrong...
Yeah but the political models aren't the same. As UK Prime Minister Nigel Farage will not be able to issue executive orders nor will he be able to overrule parliament, and he will in all likelihood be forced into a coalition, he is unlikely to be able to control the behaviour of his own MPs never mind coalition partners, all this will make a Farage premiership highly unstable in a way that the Trump presidency isn't.
An unstable Farage coalition government is unlikely to endear voters.
It should also be remembered that Donald Trump, despite his false claims, did not win the 2020 presidential election. It is unusual for a US President not to win to consecutive terms, it was Joe Biden who helped Trump win the 2024 presidential election. Hopefully when voters kick Farage out of Downing Street opposition parties won't hand him back the keys on a plate.
Curve-ball (and geo-politics is not my thing...) But
I don't think it will happen like Libs have been telling us - but Labour do keep ringing the 'war' preparedness budget joker card. If that changes or worsens (specifically for us) I can't imagine the polling will be anything other than Labour V Tory, with Tory climbing the ranks.
Just a feeling.
As an aside; having incompetent stupid leaders is not a new thing for us - ahem, but I feel parliament does reign stuff in mostly. Trump may be off the scale but he's also about 50% bluster. (His tariffs have yet to really sink, and boy will they.) I think if Reform got in they are actually smart enought deliver some 'lefty' cookies to stay relevent. That conflict does intrigue me.
Their politics will be untidy though.
I'm still getting work from a very Reformy Nottinghamshire County Council - which I thought would dissappear but then again they've been Tory for a while so no real difference.
Yeah and what about the 16-17 year olds that Starmer thought would bring him glory too?
When are they going to poll them?
Labour MP Steve Reed tried to stick one on Zack Polanski the other day and ended up looking like he knew nothing about the economics of housing, despite being the secretary of state for housing and communities.
His response is one of a dwindling Tory.
Lisa Nandy on a roll at the moment.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqjwp0rq7d7o
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1987479388254863585?t=wUy9nGZArM2c8okLEsIJAA&s=19
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxrp7znkdlo
...who could possibly have seen that coming! 🤔
Exactly.
These people are ridiculous.
If you cut, remove, de-grow and contract - what do you think will happen to the economy and people's lives?
I don't know what it's going to take for them to realise they are so far from making good economic decisions it's literally off the scale.
When you chase black-holes and insanely stupid disconnected fiscal and monetary policy...
A tax increase will almost certainly do even more damage. Again it's a cut to income -and private money circulation.
Correct route:
Spend>grow>tax
As opposed to tax/de-grow/spend and wait for something to happen. The loony right are fully out of control in Labour.
(James O'Brien just called the country skint. These people are crackers and don't look at the evidence.)
I watched Reeves talking about the budget last year and how it was a one-off to get the country back on sure-footing.
It was a silly thing to say. She's not just incompetent - she's disingenuous.
(Not forgetting pretending there is such a thing is independent economic choices. All economic choices that are framed through institutions are nowhere near independent.)
Using the OBRs wonky 5 year forecasting is like trying to plan a trip to Saturn based on current tech and even when you get there - if you get there, it's not going to be survivable trip.
(James O'Brien just called the country skint. These people are crackers and don't look at the evidence.)
He’s an utter ****, fully convinced of his own righteousness
Yeah, likes to do the progressive/pragmatic empathy but manages the tight-rope act of hating Tories and talking like one at the exact same time.
See himself as Brexit wizard without taking a blind bit of notice for the failings of neoliberalism.
A veteran Labour figure said: “They are ****ing mental – and useless. All they’ve done is let the world know there is a serious issue with the PM’s leadership.”
To be fair I think the whole world was already fully aware that there is a serious issue with the PM's leadership.
A veteran Labour figure said: “They are ****ing mental – and useless. All they’ve done is let the world know there is a serious issue with the PM’s leadership.”
That's world class commentary that.
So it's the people who are plotting against Starmer rather than Starmer - that the country is a mess?
“f you chuck a leadership challenge in just 18 months into government you’d destabilise the markets, our allies and I don’t think the public would forgive us.
Oh bless. It's always about destabilising the markets these days rather than destabilising everything else that we've had to suck for the last few decades
Labour pathetically bringing up the markets at every possible opportunity absolutely shows how terrible our democracy is abused for the benefit of the wealthy.
A leadership challenge wouldn't be heating up if these pricks had done a good job.
It's not good for us but the budget needs to absolutely destroy Reeves and Starmer; where they can then go on to fulfill their careers as over-paid incompetent advisors to some Ai or financial institution.
I've repeatedly been proven totally wrong in politics...but the idea of a successful insurgent challenge to Starmer coming from Streeting seems completely nuts. From the left or a populist or a personality within the Labour Party - I can see it. But from a cold fish white guy on the right of the party? It just doesn't make sense to me. Who is his disaffected support base within the PLP or wider LP?
Labour head office know that simple Starmer is toast, that's why Streeting and Shabana Mahmood are being touted, they want to get out ahead of any challenger that might actually work for the country instead of the oligarchs and markets, they want to make sure the right wing takeover off the labour party continues.
The whole current leadership and central structure of the labour party are far more interested in the internal politics than actually getting on with the day job, and frankly have been since Starmer took over.
I've repeatedly been proven totally wrong in politics...but the idea of a successful insurgent challenge to Starmer coming from Streeting seems completely nuts. From the left or a populist or a personality within the Labour Party - I can see it. But from a cold fish white guy on the right of the party? It just doesn't make sense to me. Who is his disaffected support base within the PLP or wider LP?
Yeah I agree but Streeting has been making left-wing noises recently, much in the same way as Starmer was making left-wing noises when he too was desperate to become Labour leader.
The interesting thing about Streeting is that he is all but a hundred percent certain to lose his seat at the next general election, he very almost lost it at the last general election when there was a surge of support for Labour everywhere else.
What would be the appeal of a dead Labour MP walking?
So my crazy bet of him going before Xmas could still be on the cards?
I suppose the budget drags it all out a bit more.
Labour head office know that simple Starmer is toast, that's why Streeting and Shabana Mahmood are being touted
Well - what an abundance of talent the Labour party has to choose from.
I'm sure either of those being chosen as leader would be met with jubilation and street parties throughout the nation! 🤣
Starmer is one of 2 people alive today who's won an outright Labour majority, his successor has a bit of an act to follow. A lurch to the left will let reform in.
Starmer is one of 2 people alive today who's won an outright Labour majority, his successor has a bit of an act to follow. A lurch to the left will let reform in.
It's the opposite.
A lurch to the right has seen them drop down the ranks of just about every single poll.
Left-wing policies are popular which is why he ran a campaign on them. (And a Tory collapse. He squandered the opportunity of a lifetime with zero political and economic plan while chasing the optics of Reform. What a plan.)
Besides, this clueless bonehead told people to leave if they didn't like what Labour were doing.
A lurch to the right has seen them drop down the ranks of just about every single poll.
Yeah it makes you wonder why Starmer's very obvious lurch to the right hasn't worked at all?
It is every single poll btw, you are being too generous by suggesting that it might not be !
I'm currently finding myself often thanking Sunak for going to the polls earlier than he had to.
I wonder if we’ll end up with simultaneous leadership elections? Or will Honest Bob wait to see who he’ll be facing st the despatch box?
The interesting thing about Streeting is that he is all but a hundred percent certain to lose his seat at the next general election
That's why he's moving now. If he waits til the next election he won't be an MP. The only chance he has of being PM is to get rid of Starmer before the election and take over from him. Then he can find himself another seat that's a lot safer.
PS. It's pretty hilarious that in addition to all the cockups since the election, and the impending dump of their central manifesto pledge, and raising taxes for working people, they're now going to further damage their poll ratings by embarking on a factional leadership battle.
If Starmer had any honour or interest in doing the right thing for both the country and his party he would admit his failures and quit now. Instead though he's choosing a scorched earth policy which will finish the party off for a generation and hand the keys to No 10 to Nigel f####### Farage.
It's crazy this is all kicking off just before the budget.
What timing. It means they're seriously dreading the budget.
If Starmer had any honour or interest in doing the right thing for both the country and his party
That'd be a first!
Remember this is the guy told us to celebrate the FTSE being at all time high a few weeks ago. (I checked my wages - nope still the same.)
So my crazy bet of him going before Xmas could still be on the cards?
I bet you a tenner to Medical Aid to Palestinians that Starmer is still PM on Xmas Day. I still think that a lot of this is just early first term stumbles and mumbles. But, you know, I've been very wrong in the past
The only chance he has of being PM is to get rid of Starmer before the election and take over from him. Then he can find himself another seat that's a lot safer.
Er, can you imagine the utter humiliation if the UK Prime Minister, and leader of the Labour Party, if they had to find a safe* Labour seat where local party members would be prepared to select them (and possibly oust a sitting MP) because they had no confidence that their own constituency would elect them!?!?
* There are likely to be considerably less safe Labour seats in the next general election than there were in last year's.