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Very early in the vote counting day, but the council results so far suggest Reform are taking votes from the Tories far more than from Labour.
That has long been apparent and written on many times. Starmer, being a tin-eared ****er, hasn't listened, though. So he's haemorrhaging votes out of the other end.
Chasing bigotry. Fantastic.
I don’t think calling Jenkyns spitefully thick is unreasonable.
I can't see a scenario where it gets better for Labour unless Labour really change their direction of travel.
I've got a depressing feeling that they'll just double down on their existing direction of travel.
Starmer really is a dithery weak leader.
Many people are tricked into that
As a result of not having an education that encouraged critical thinking. The better your education covers the political process, the history of politics, propaganda and what history teaches us the less likely you are to be duped. The nature of the education you receive will also have an impact obviously. The public school education fan on STW has exactly the political views you'd expect and rarely deigns to post except to express those views. I'm familiar with the education systems in France, The UK and Germany having spent time in schools in those countries. There's something chicken and egg about it - the political system reflects the way the population's education has influenced the way they vote.
Starmer's Labour came in and did a lot of good stuff very quickly. They then got mired in the PIP and winter payments stuff - urgh - and have stayed on track doing unpopular but arguably necessary stuff.
There's still 4 years of this government.
My belief is that Labour wanted to consolidate their victory with a honeymoon period and then use that to carry them through a period of difficult stuff, and then have enough time to let the dust settle on that in the 2 year run to the next election.
And I believe in that period, EU membership will be mooted as a vote winner with Starmer citing "a changing macroeconomic climate" or similar.
As a result of not having an education that encouraged critical thinking
An education doesn't necessarily create useful critical thinking.
Tice is pretty well educated etc.
My partner is a teacher in a well-heeled public school and is well educated - she despises what all 3 main parties are doing. She would say most of the kids there want to vote Reform. (They do mock polls occasionally.)
There is no consensus on critical thinking otherwise we would look after our disadvantaged better than we do.
You are also leaving out the undesirable failure of things like markets which the educated tell us are perfect.
So many failures are attributed to acceptance of status-quo thinking without evidence. For example there is no solid paper that supports inflation adjustment by interest rate tinkering via central bank policy. Yet it's considered the thing to do to keep rates in check.
This is stuff central to many western governments that is considered the correct economic way of doing things.
Critical thinking works in a Lab.
I like your optimism pook not sure i share it , especially regards EU, sadly we'll get Customs Union at best but youth mobility scheme would be a good indication of a closer relationship.
anyway disappointing to see farages gurning mug this morning, just 6 votes while a big swing and a slap in the face for labour, Runcorn was amazingly close.
How long do we think the first female reform MP will last before one of the other reform MPs is involved in a drunken argument and she quits the party?
more disappointing to see Andrea Jenkyns back in politics, though her victory speech seems to be as raving as youd expect
has badenoch said anything yet , i think the penny might finally drop in CCHQ that she's not up to the job
Starmer's Labour came in and did a lot of good stuff very quickly
The good stuff is slow and limp and not making much of dent to people's lives. Not helping with energy prices like they claimed etc.
They've done more bad stuff in my opinion - left the budget too late, and was a truly awful rudderless seething budget. The whole gifting was a total embarrassment so early in. Fuel allowance trim was a pointless move. None of this really raises that much 'revenue' in the classic sense of the word. And government's don't save money in modern systems. Their accounts are swept to zero every night. There is no pot of money.
In fact the good stuff reads like a technocrat's greatest hits of mean-spirited and confused thinking.
The bar is too low for what we need.
Starmer had a massive majority to really do some good stuff. He's pissed that and the goodwill up the wall.
But I'm less inclined to be judgemental when Starmer and Labour are validating their choice by aping Reform in the hope of hanging on to their votes
Sort of. He only apes the Reforms more unpleasant right wing populist policies.
Those that reform borrow from the traditional left for some reason the ruthless pragmatist ignores. I guess it fails the ideological purity test.
Lincolnshire really needs to be cut adrift from the UK and pushed into the North Sea a bit.
I think it is merely a matter of opening a few sluice gates at high tide and it is job done.
The last time I spent any time out that way was for our wedding anniversary at least 10 years ago. At dinner there was a couple from Skeg. We tried to stay out of their way, but they were on an adjacent table. The woman struck up an unwanted conversation about 'immigrunts' within about ten seconds of being seated. They were well dressed, flash motor, nice venue - and as thick as pig shit horrendous bigots. The meal itself was nice, but ruined by their presence.
The good stuff is slow and limp and not making much of dent to people's lives
I agree with your sentiment but rushing to bang stuff through hasn't gone well in the US. Quick fixes are rarely successful long term.
Though any hint of any fix will do me for now, frankly.
I read an interesting FT article yesterday which was titled "Reform surge shows Britain will keep voting for change till it sees it" the first paragraph states :
You have to go back to 2015 for the last time the British electorate rewarded the status quo. Since then they have voted for Brexit and Boris Johnson, and come close to backing Jeremy Corbyn in 2017. At the last election it was enough for Sir Keir Starmer simply to put the word “change” on the front of his manifesto and leave the details to voters’ imagination. For a decade, the country has been consistent that things cannot go on as they are.
Which is pretty valid imo. When voters gave Labour a landslide last July it wasn't because of specific policies but merely because Starmer promised change. Nigel Farage now seems to be the main benefactor of voters desperate yearning for change.
Obviously Farage is not the solution, in the same way that Starmer isn't, but voters haven't suddenly become more racist since last July and decided to vote for bigotry, all that has happened is that Labour has proved to have nothing significantly different to offer.
Describing voters as "spitefully thick" when only a few months ago they were legends for giving the Labour Party a landslide victory doesn't sound like a particularly intelligent appraisal of the current political situation, ironically. Although very predictable.
Yes voters often make what I consider to be stupid decisions but that imo is primarily because of a lack of political awareness, and that is as much a reflection of the failings of those with a greater understanding than voters themselves.
With regards to both Labour and the Tories trying to ape Nigel Farage the FT article makes another very valid point :
"If the Reform leader is what people want there is already a working model"
It's difficult to argue with that imo
There is no quick fix. And no party promised one at the last election, Labour deliberately talked about a "decade of renewal". And Farage&co aren't even offering one anyway, but are still winning votes. Millionaires migrant bashing and talking without irony about the elites still works.
Millionaires migrant bashing and talking without irony about the elites still works.
What do you mean "still works" ?
If it has always worked then why isn't Nigel Farage currently UK Prime Minister ?
Fuel allowance trim was a pointless move.
I get the impression from reading about it from several sources that treasury civil servants who'd offered this policy change to a succession of former Chancellors, who were at least long in tooth enough to recognise the potential political fallout, seized the opportunity to out-flank a new minister who they correctly assed; was keen to save money. I think the policy change says more about her naivety at a moment in time, rather than some deeply held policy or mandate that she was desperately keen to implement. The lack of foresight doesn't do her any favours though.
Quick fixes are rarely successful long term.
Isn't the definition of a quick fix something which is a temporary measure ?
It is perfectly possible to carry out major and long-term changes in a reasonably short time, the NHS was created in about 5 years.
Yes voters often make what I consider to be stupid decisions but that imo is primarily because of a lack of political awareness, and that is as much a reflection of the failings of those with a greater understanding than voters themselves.
It cuts both ways, people are apparently regretting their Brexit vote, but are still willing to back Farage, that's not a 'lack of political awareness' that's just plain 'ole stupidity. Yes you can blame politicians over the last couple of decades (at least) for a succession of policies that haven't produced public fountains that overflow with chilled champagne, but at the same time don't vote for changes that will destroy a good chunk of the economy...
The older I get the more attractive basic comprehensive testing before being allowed to vote becomes.
There is no quick fix.
That - along with a whole load of other minor little details - needs explaining to the electorate. The constant dumbing-down of politics to be little more than a bunch of 3-word catchphrases has really hindered any possibility of decent policies.
People are voting for "change" without any idea what that change should be or how it should be enacted or indeed why.
Speaking of 'Labours good stuff'
this is long overdue
Wasn't getting rid of Corbyn and betraying all the pledges about making grown-up Labour electable? That played well. There must be quite a few MPs with less than a 14k majority getting even squeakier than Armrest.
nb a 'correctly assed' new minister?
One of the problems that Lab have got is that people didn't so much vote for them as voted to GTTO. And there's been a lack of actual steps to make people's lives better (well-established principle that when people's lives are rubbish they look for someone to blame and vote, often against their own interests, for RW populists).
There has been a total lack of making the case for more progressive politics, and frankly fixing social care so local government is more than a device for channelling public funds to private sector care providers should be more of a priority than it is.
The problem is what do people actually want. Reform voters seem to dislike immigration but do they understand that it is either required to make most services actually function or do they dislike immigration so much that they don't care and would rather have worse services (NHS, care, hospitality etc,.) and a slower growing economy (less workers to do stuff).
Is anybody asking them this. If the majority of them are happy for it to be worse as long as there are not as many immigrants then fine, at least it would be know and we could see why they have it as such a priority. They also need to be told that no party (even Reform) is going to be stupid enough to stop immigration all together.
Wasn't getting rid of Corbyn and betraying all the pledges about making grown-up Labour electable? That played well. There must be quite a few MPs with less than a 14k majority getting even squeakier than Armrest.
We were talking about critical thinking earlier and few 'grown-up' Labour supporters appear to not be noticing the trajectory.
It's not hard to see that he's sinking the Labour party faster than CERN smashes particles.
The idea that just 6 votes is a small freaky win is totally ignoring the majority swing.
Runcorn noises has it that WFA and PIP cuts were instrumental.
Labour's politically dangerous and/or clumsy choices are flat out preposterous for fixing a modern Britain. When they realise this it will probably be too late.
Be interesting to see how Starmer responds.
The problem is what do people actually want. Reform voters seem to dislike immigration but do they understand that it is either required to make most services actually function or do they dislike immigration so much that they don't care and would rather have worse services (NHS, care, hospitality etc,.) and a slower growing economy (less workers to do stuff).
This is a great point.
I would say improvements in people's lives would reduce prejudices overall.
If it was me running the country I'd be quietly fixing stuff in the background in a big way.
But Labour can't because their saddled with claiming they need private money and growth.
They're stuck.
Be interesting to see how Starmer responds.
The electorate: we want a political party that doesn't actively make our lives worse
Starmer: This result shows we must machine-gun the dinghies
Well, one consolation for Starmer might be that we're about to embark on a two week national circle jerk to commemorate 80 years since VE Day.
A procession of boomers claiming to have single-handedly seen off the Hun (despite not having been born yet), Spitfires, Vera Lynn, bunting and misty eyes. And one that a large proportion (probably a majority) will draw totally the wrong conclusions from.
Less 80 million people losing their lives and more "two world wars and one world cup, doo-dah, doo-dah".
🙄
The electorate: we want a political party that doesn't actively make our lives worse
Starmer: This result shows we must machine-gun the dinghies
Basically this.
Well, one consolation for Starmer might be that we're about to embark on a two week national circle jerk to commemorate 80 years since VE Day.
Ah yes, where the people who would deport foreigners, beat the poor and machine gun the dinghies suddenly get all patriotic.
Labour MPs are breaking cover. It’s about time.
https://twitter.com/kimjohnsonmp/status/1918222390263157081?s=46&t=LtLH_brmYFWrcPalxgEeWA
If it has always worked then why isn't Nigel Farage currently UK Prime Minister ?
Scheduled for 2029, I believe.
It's not change we want, change is something politicians interpret in whatever way benefits them and not us. Change is what politicians do with their promises. **** change.
Round my way the bins are overflowing, park benches broken, roads full of potholes. Folk can't find a dentist, get a doctor's appointment or send their kid to the local school. It's hardly surprising that good communicators (and Farage is an excellent communicator) are able to tap into people's worst prejudices. Labour isn't offering an attractive alternative and if it doesn't start soon, Farage will be our next PM.
Do you really think Reform will win 326 seats? At best a coalition. That would require the Tories to swing radically right.
I would say improvements in people's lives would reduce prejudices overall.
The problem is that where that fails and improvements are not forthcoming (or at least not tangible improvements in a relatively short timeframe), people switch to seeing other folk worse off.
A surprisingly large number of people don't really mind so much that THEIR life hasn't got any better just so long as someone else is seen to be getting it worse. Which is why immigrants, the poor, the disabled (and cyclists!) are such easy targets. Relative minority groups, not much of a voice to stand up for themselves.
You can easily point at them and say "ah yes, YOUR standards of living haven't improved much / at all but LOOK, we deported some asylum seekers!"
It's part of the alternative narrative that everyone sees from the RW press that immigrants are coming over here, being given a 5-bed house and millions in benefits and also taking your job. By taking a hard stance on immigrants, you're answering that RW press argument.
Labour isn't offering an attractive alternative and if it doesn't start soon, Farage will be our next PM.
The tragedy is that these election results are a huge opportunity for Labour. Reform are winning votes off both the tories and labour roughly equally. There's not much the tories can do to get those votes back as Reform will always be stronger on rightwing dog whistle issues, but Labour can win their voters back quite easily by reversing austerity with radical progressive (dare I say - leftwing) policies which rebuild public services and infrastructure and address the inequality issue by taxing the rich more and lowering the tax burden on working people. We all know they won't do that though, they'll continue with tory-light austerity and chase the tories towards Farage's battlements in a pointless suicide mission.
Round my way the bins are overflowing, park benches broken, roads full of potholes
none of which have anything to do with your Westminster MP. Labour or othrwise
By taking a hard stance on immigrants, you're answering that RW press argument.
No you're not, as they'll never be happy. No amount of cruelty will be enough, there will always be some 'left behind' person/family/street/town that can be used for "shouldn't we look after our own first". The press aren't working in the real world so doing some real world cruelty to appease them just shows that them making stuff up works, which encourages them to do more.
You're not answering the argument, you're chasing a right wing fantasy of making anyone with the wrong skin tone or a foreign accent disappear. And if that was achieved then the next step would be to do the same to 'lefties who hate Britain', or LGBT people, or cyclists, or single parents, or the unemployed or whoever else becomes the next target.
This is why I took issue with the 'but you have to vote Labour because they're not the Tories' stuff pre-GE. Lots of people aren't the Tories, but if Labour are going to carry on with the Tory style performative cruelty then what makes them any better? And the people who want the cruelty will never believe that Labour are really doing it so they're probably not really winning any votes from it.
Does anyone think some Facebook-radicalised retiree blathering on about '2-tier Keir' is going to suddenly vote Labour because they published the race crime league table?
none of which have anything to do with your Westminster MP. Labour or othrwise
Oh come on, all the things Ransos mentions are a direct result of national policy set in Westminster. Local authorities are hamstrung by massive underfunding from central govt due to 'balancing the books', and the continued failure of central govt to reform the social care system which is devouring what little funds local authorities have. There is no money to fix local facilities and infrastructure because all the money is being funnelled into the accounts of private care providers. Labour could fix all that if they wanted, but they don't because 'there is no money'.
Fully agree with dazh, central government absolutely has plenty to do with the state of local government services. They were the main targets of the austerity cuts.
If voters are not given a choice of different policies, they will just back the version which is shouting the loudest. Hopefully this will finally wake up Labour strategists - being Reform-lite on immigration wins you no votes whatsoever, as people who respond to that prefer the full-fat version.
the continued failure of central govt to reform the social care system which is devouring what little funds local authorities have
The big nettle that needs grasping.
none of which have anything to do with your Westminster MP. Labour or othrwise
Not directly but it's an outcome of austerity and Westminster policies - which is a shame because these are the easy wins. If you can fix a few dozen potholes, keep the place clean and give a regular bin collection, you buy yourself a lot of time and goodwill to then ponce around with the less popular stuff.
A surprisingly large number of people don't really mind so much that THEIR life hasn't got any better just so long as someone else is seen to be getting it worse. Which is why immigrants, the poor, the disabled (and cyclists!) are such easy targets.
Yup, as I said, spiteful. And whilst these people do tend to vote populist they can also be attracted to the other parties if they make the right (wrong to me) noises. The spiteful thick vote is increasing sought after, depressing.
It seems to be a world-wide phenomenon. I find Germany particularly revealing. The country was divided in two for a few decades and since reunification the voting habits of the two halves have been fascinating to watch. In the communist dictatorship DDR the propaganda and education system resulted in a mind set remarkably similar to the Nazis and even a generation or so on the AfD finds fertile ground.
The UK has its own issues. There are things deep rooted in society and the education system that come out at elections. For example:
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2008/feb/29/schools.uk4
The study, published today, found that nearly half of UK secondary school pupils (46%) think that bullying is a problem in their school and is caused by students' language difficulties, skin colour, race and religion.
In case you can't be bothered to read all of it.
Labour can win their voters back quite easily by reversing austerity with radical progressive (dare I say - leftwing) policies which rebuild public services and infrastructure and address the inequality issue by taxing the rich more and lowering the tax burden on working people. We all know they won't do that though, they'll continue with tory-light austerity and chase the tories towards Farage's battlements in a pointless suicide mission.
The issue I think when anyone actually tries to tax the rich, is the rich people who own the papers etc double down to say how it effects the man in the street so to speak.
Tax the wealthy and they'll all leave is the usual argument.