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It really doesn't take a logical leap to understand people want stuff fixing and making better and then the immigration issue will likely subdue
From this side of the channel, both Germany's and France's society 'works' better than it does in the UK. Germany has the largest economy in Europe, and by comparison France's infrastructure and civic society is generally more favourable to it's citizens than in the UK. Both of these countries have the same immigration paradox that the UK has, and are riven by the same far-right political parties that exploit the very same fears..
A deal with thr EUon mutual recognition on food standards or a trade deal with the US. They are mutually incompatible
There's nothing stopping the UK from saying to the US - we'll buy your stuff, but it needs to meet 'this' standard. But then the US doesn't (currently) need an export market - being as they are; the largest consumer market in the world.
This is true although according to most opinion polls it is the Greens who out of the two have seen the greatest increase in support since the general election.
Slightly different question/answer, though.
This was about where Labour have lost votes to rather than where Libdem/Green have picked up votes from.
I'll be voting Libdem.
Nick
Trump has made it clear we have to take their food as they make it. apparently our food standards are tarrifs or some such gibberish
There will be no deal on that basis and anyway that's the basis for current trade
stupid me mucking up posts
Ernie. and SNP in Scotland. polls show iirc that almost all the votes Labour took off the SNP at the GE have gone back
A year ago the SNP looked like they would lose control of Holywood. That's changed. A pro Europe pro immigration left of centre party can attract votes even as the least worst option
Well Starmer is probably about to find out why not being Torys was good enough when they had to be got rid of, but not good enough nearly a year later.
It's more the reaction that will be most interesting. In my opinion, they should make the case for democratic socialism. But I suspect they'll take the easy option and go for government by Daily Telegraph editorial.
From this side of the channel, both Germany's and France's society 'works' better than it does in the UK. Germany has the largest economy in Europe, and by comparison France's infrastructure and civic society is generally more favourable to it's citizens than in the UK. Both of these countries have the same immigration paradox that the UK has, and are riven by the same far-right political parties that exploit the very same fears..
Having the largest economy says nothing about how you deliver for public purpose. USA has the biggest economy in the world remember - that's not really got them very far in the current conversation.
What is important is distribution, inequality and material conditions.
Germany's economy hasn't escaped the slump either. It's possible that both France and Germany still aren't 'favourable' enough for many people who live their.
Remember Neolibralism delivers wealth for an ever decreasing amount of people even if that wealth measured by size of the economy looks great.
We have three right-wing parties all scratching similar itches but none of them offering actual fixes. So expect more disillusionment.
(And of course people with wealth vote, and influence those without money too.)
It's more the reaction that will be most interesting. In my opinion, they should make the case for democratic socialism. But I suspect they'll take the easy option and go for government by Daily Telegraph editorial.
Given we've got local elections on Thursday (apologies if there is a seperate thread) how much literature have people had?
So far we have had one leaflet through the door. It wasn't from Reform either, but a local independant.
Also given the threat that reform pose, why do people constantly think the answer is to lean into their policies & not go the other way?
No their policies are stupid, they're lying to you. What am I missing here?
What am I missing here?
The allure of having your prejudices legitimised into mainstream political discourse.
Farage is quite experienced and good at this.
This won't be helping Labour tomorrow, if for no other reason than it remind voters of both Rachel Reeves's and Keir Starmer's previous poor judgement.
She's totally ridiculous.
Incompetent; morally devoid of a sense of public purpose and an appalling lack of financial understanding.
Hopefully today will give them a kick up the arse.
But I doubt they will care.
It would seem that the press have a list of freebies and/or people willing to rat. Labour supporters (of which I am no longer one) cannot moan about this - it is exactly the same drip-drip that the press used with Johnson and Partygate - whether you view Johnson as more morally bankrupt and a more legitimate target is moot.
The idea, of course, was to be whiter than white for at least the last 6 months in opposition and from then on. Something that people like Reeves obviously forgot. There's a lot of discussion around how Labour are seeking not to alienate working class voters who may or may not possess iliberal tendencies. But what is a guaranteed way to piss off your average man in the street who may be thinking they might give Reform a go?
Three words - freebie theatre tickets. If it had been tickets for the darts or Chubby Brown, it wouldn't be so bad. 🤣🤣🤣
I can only laugh and put my tick in the Libdem or Green box from now on.
how much literature have people had?
Reform and Lib dem (although the lib dems is more a "how well we are doing" vs a targeted campaign pamphlet
What am I missing here?
Good question. I am sure though since we kept being told Starmer is a grown up pragmatist there are some good reasons for it. To question it is to be overly ideological pure. Believe in the leader.
The idea, of course, was to be whiter than white for at least the last 6 months in opposition and from then on.
I know - how hard could it have been to keep this stuff from happening?
The defense by the liberal journo 'intellectuals' was absurd.
They would have shit themselves if these had been Tories as they actually did.
(Optics don't matter yelled James O'Brien. Rules do. What a prat.)
It was the worst start possible and pretty indicative of the course set by the total embarrassment that is the Labour party.
Nothing has got better since.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1918069273966137367
First result of the night.
Nigel Farage's smugness is going to reach new heights by the end of the night.
Ooooft
Full recount at Runcorn/Helsby.
Reform ahead by 4pts! There will be some grimacing there.
This is one of Labour's safest seats. In 2024 Labour had a 14696 maj.
Holy shit.
not unusual to see freak results in bye elections. The norm is they revert at GE
Reform win Runcorn by 6 votes 😯
not unusual to see freak results in bye elections. The norm is they revert at GE
I would say the 'norm' is to shift further to the right, enabled by 3 RW parties and Labour failure.
This is not going away.
I'm not sure what you think reverting to the norm is these days.
Maybe Labour MPs shouldn't beat up constiuents!
Nigel Farage's smugness is going to reach new heights by the end of the night.
His smugness is deserved.
He's running rings around our two large main parties despite being the absolute antithesis of working class.
(I was listening to Tice yesterday - what an badly informed individual. But he's very good in the interview situation - never getting flustered.)
Other thing is - especially Farage - these are not really what I would call genuine business people. Both parasitic on the backs of the working class in their previous line of 'work' - adding little value to society. Why this argument can't be sold to working class voters - I've not got a clue.
Reform win Runcorn by 6 votes 😯
Maybe Lab need to have long hard think why the Green vote wasn’t squeezed harder? A lot of the Blue Labour strategy seems to be ‘offer Reform-lite and LD and Green voters will vote tactically to keep Reform and the Tories out’ which doesn’t seem to have been borne out in reality.
Andrea Jenkyns’ acceptance speech totally incoherent and full of dog-whistling, so no change there.
After a freak bye election result normally the previous holders regain it at the GE. Thats the political norm
Jeepers some of the gloating is unseemly and some of the supposed lefties are obviously rooting for reform
Lincolnshire really needs to be cut adrift from the UK and pushed into the North Sea a bit.
Also given the threat that reform pose, why do people constantly think the answer is to lean into their policies & not go the other way?
No their policies are stupid, they're lying to you. What am I missing here?
I think it's a political discourse "thing" a bit like PMQ where you are supposed to use your wit and erudition and debating skills to best your opponent.
I think that calling them and their policies stupid is sort of frowned upon.
You're just supposed to come up with better policies. The problem is that the media will amplify and "sell" the policies which get the clickbait rage going, the politicians will be led by this and you end up in a popularity war where you're all trying to appeal to a small section of Daily Mail readers.
To save me reading back does STW have any Reform representatives? Brexit had some very vocal Brexiters (mostly long gone on their 2016 pseudos) but I haven't noticed any Reform fans.
On Runcorn I note that the Halton local authority voted Brexit by 57.4% which was properly shooting oneself in the foot. Reform's ex conservative dodgy magistrate Sarah Pochin's hubby claimed the failure of his business was partly due to Brexit. And she wins for Reform. I look forward to the only thing I can remember about Runcorn, that bridge, being painted red white and blue like NI kerb stones.
Some voters really are spitefully thick.
Looks like a conservative hold for our council but a close one with reform. I could have guessed around 90% of the wards that a reform candidate win in. They were destroyed in the 2 wards for my area, green stormed home in one.
Jeepers some of the gloating is unseemly and some of the supposed lefties are obviously rooting for reform
That's just ridiculous.
I just want a decent progressive party to fix the UK and push these chancers away.
My line of argument has always been Labour moving to the right (from way before the 2025 election) is not the way to fix society.
About time centrists looked inwards to understand their part in enabling these right-wing narratives.
Both the Democrats and now Labour are simply not delivering for the working class.
(Rooting for reform would mean voting for them.)
Starmer's government is failing at a rapid level. The evidence is all around us. Maybe just maybe Labour being totally shit is more than half of the problem.
Some voters really are spitefully thick.
Or, successive governments haven't given certain groups people the much of a good crack at life?
Amazing someone who is not spitefully thick might have your understanding.
Maybe if Labour stopped punching down on the sick and disabled, then voters might be more inclined to vote for them. Just a thought.
Is it the "working class" driving these results? I imagine turnout will be low and heavily skewed towards retired over 60's, who previous election polls have showed are reform's biggest supporters.
Is it the "working class" driving these results? I imagine turnout will be low and heavily skewed towards retired over 60's, who previous election polls have showed are reform's biggest supporters
Let's assume that's true.
The argument still sticks that the working class didn't feel good enough for getting out and voting Labour?
Same end result.
After a freak bye election result normally the previous holders regain it at the GE. Thats the political norm
Jeepers some of the gloating is unseemly and some of the supposed lefties are obviously rooting for reform
For an outsider looking in it seems that way. I cannot ever see the British electorate voting for a progressive (socialist) party.over a right leaning candidate. Except as an occasional protest vote.
Some voters really are spitefully thick.
I might phrase it more as "desperately looking for any way out of a decade of austerity and a drop in real term living standards" while also being thick / simple enough to be taken in by the dog whistles and blame game.
On the other hand there's a few glimmers of hope and sanity. Lambeth by-election (Herne Hill and Loughborough Junction) got a thumping win for Green with Labour second and everyone else a very distant third.
Why this argument can't be sold to working class voters - I've not got a clue.
It truly is a triumph for smoke and mirrors on top of a failure of the main parties to deliver when in power.
I'm assuming our Tory councillor held her seat. As an individual, she is an excellent councillor, active on local issues and supports a lot of good work for youth and care groups. Which is odd for a Tory.
Noticeably the only posters I've seen displayed have been Green or Reform.
On the upside let's see how the Labour party respond.
I'm all ears but I suspect it will be more cuts and aggressive attitude towards migrants.
This is a shockingly bad result for a government that would normally be in its best few months.
Glad the Trump thread gives Labour supporters somewhere to vent their anger on something else.
I understand racist, xenophobic, fascist, selfish, greedy, uncaring, vindictive, lying, manipulative, coercive, corrupt... too, Rone, tar me with those brushes too if it makes your day.
I might phrase it more as "desperately looking for any way out of a decade of austerity and a drop in real term living standards" while also being thick / simple enough to be taken in by the dog whistles and blame game.
We could also argue people voting for Labour in 2025 that didn't realise they were going to slide further right - couldn't see the wood for trees either or fancied a right-wing government?
People do vote on simple issues - there's nothing thick about it.
I understand racist, xenophobic, fascist,selfish, greedy, uncaring, vindictive, lying, manipulative, coercive, corrupt... too, Rone, tar me with those brushes too if it makes your day.
I don't hardly know you. Why would I would describe as such? I'm sure you're not any of those things.
Honestly when I walk out of that door for work - thinking about forum member's personalities doesn't really factor in my day!
But the argument of thick voters is not a winner in my opinion.
People do vote on simple issues - there's nothing thick about it.
I disagree, check out the level of education and voting habits in numerous polls that include education level as a factor. There is an excellent correlation between the O-level/CSE results of my secondary mod contemporaries and their voting habits as revealed by Facebook. Higher education = less likely to vote Brexit and less likely to be caught up in the current far right trend.
Better travelled and better educated people are less likely to vote for extremes IME.
Up until now, I was in the calling many voters "spitefully thick" camp. I still am to a certain extent.
But I'm less inclined to be judgemental when Starmer and Labour are validating their choice by aping Reform in the hope of hanging on to their votes. If Labour were offering a clear point of difference (it doesn't have to be domestic socialism, it could be rejoining the EU), and voters still rejected them, then fine. That obviously puts aside that any voter or constituency that is specifically targeted by Reform ought to feel embarrassed and ashamed by it. Ought doesn't win in politics.
Now is the time for Starmer to draw a clear line. But I don't think he has the balls. I think we're going to be in for another 4 years of reactive fire-fighting with the Overton Window being dragged further and further rightwards. With Reform always being able to claim any Labour policy of performative cruelty to minorities is merely window-dressing and a 'lite' version of what they'd do.
I had high hopes a year ago.
I disagree, check out the level of education and voting habits in numerous polls that include education level as a factor. There is an excellent correlation between the O-level/CSE results of my secondary mod contemporaries and their voting habits as revealed by Facebook. Higher education = less likely to vote Brexit and less likely to be caught up in the current far right trend.
Not having good qualifications makes you thick?
As someone who didn't go to university and got very basic GCSEs, and live in a Brexit 'utopia' constituency - i didn't vote for Brexit. Many of my mates in the same boat.
There's a liberal assumption by some people that Brexit was the start of politics going bad. You see it everywhere.
You'd be ignoring the mess that was delivered to de-industrialised areas like ours that lead to apathy and rejection of mainstream politics before Brexit.
Brexit was a mess but it's only a small part of some people's lives.
People vote for what they think will make their lives better. Many people are tricked into that. Otherwise Labour wouldn't be in power now.
Make your target Neoliberalism rather than Brexit and we'd stand a fighting chance.
Brexit really shouldn't be constantly used as the barometer for voting stupidity when we still have lies about financial black-holes etc that are holding the country back.
It's up to Labour to fix this stuff.
Very early in the vote counting day, but the council results so far suggest Reform are taking votes from the Tories far more than from Labour. "If" that continues then we may have to think of it as being a bad night for the Tories rather than Labour.
Very early in the vote counting day, but the council results so far suggest Reform are taking votes from the Tories far more than from Labour. "If" that continues then we may have to think of it as being a bad night for the Tories rather than Labour.
It's a bad night all round.
Contextually the Tories are down Labour are supposed to be in their prime. Curtis said this shift started taking place in the general election.
I can't see a scenario where it gets better for Labour unless Labour really change their direction of travel.