Reform up to second according to YouGov
Yeah and even worse than that they now seem to be taking votes from Labour - 3 opinion polls in the last 3 days have put Labour on less than 40%
Up until this week no opinion poll had put Labour on less than 40% for a couple of years.
I have to admit that I had dismissed Farage's claim when announcing his candidature that Reform UK would start taking votes from Labour as well as the Tories.
Up until now the growth in support for Reform UK (from about 5% a couple of years ago to about 12-14% more recently) has come at the expense of the Tories, it hadn't noticeably dented Labour support.
I was obviously wrong. Suddenly I am not finding this election campaign quite so entertaining and funny 🫤
With 3 weeks to go for the first time I am starting to think that Labour might possibly have a problem forming a large majority. The full effect of Starmer's support for Israel on Labour's vote won't be known until election night, losing support to Reform UK is probably something that Starmer's tacticians did not calculate when they decided that they could afford to lose the Muslim vote, and the Green vote.
Maybe we will see a Lab/Lib coalition... I'll take that over a Con/Lib coalition any day of the week.
The other more frightening prospect is a Con/reform coalition, but I'm reasonably happy that won't happen, touch wood.
I reckon the situation now that Farage has weighed in is really quite volatile and unpredictable.
I think the only one certain thing now is that the Tories will do extremely badly on July 4th. Everything else is anyone's guess.
I’ve never voted tactically in my life, but I feel I have no choice.
I’m an active Labour Party member who’s been out campaigning for them and will be doing again this weekend
If it was a lib dem who stoood more chance of unseating our Tory MP, I’d vote for them in a heartbeat*
We just need rid of these clowns
* it’s a two horse race here with Labour or our useless Tory MP who I look forward to seeing getting the slow handclap as he’s voted out
For those saying 'oh the Tories won't get that few seats' - their numbers are still sliding and we aren't even half way through the campaign yet!
Jesus, a Tory/Reform coalition.
I'm genuinely terrified at the thought, particularly as Reform would very much be the senior partner even if they have less MP's.
I was pleasantly surprised to see Reform not eating into the labour vote but I suppose it was always going to happen to some degree.
I wont lie, I'm pleased Labour is still being so cautious even though I understand why it annoys so many. It had to be this way as there are are so many variables in play here the mind boggles.
A big Labour mistake could still change everything.
Let's not forget the "Labour have it in the bag" narrative is inevitably going to erode the tactical vote too.
Could be a perfect storm for Labour, the vote being eroded from all sides. Shit.
My money is still on labour to win but I don't think it will be the landslide some predict.
Looking increasingly like a possible, even likely, outcome.
Farage, finally finishing off the hollowing out of the Tory party started by Brexit and fully impregnating it with frog spawn.
Eeeww. Not sure I wanted to conjure that image up in my head now.
Right now a Tory-Reform coalition is not even vaguely possible as even the best possible scenario for them only gives Reform about 3 seats.
I am not sure what threshold Reform needs to hit for seats to start cascading in for them, it obviously depends on their vote distribution.
As I say though the one thing we can be absolutely sure of is the Tories will do extremely badly. There is no evidence that their fortunes have turned. In fact all the evidence suggests that their support is collapsing further.
@binners said:
I’m an active Labour Party member who’s been out campaigning for them and will be doing again this weekend
Well, good for you, but the current manifestation of the labour party seems just as anti EU as it was under Corbyn, so I don't realy GAF about that.
I'll only be voting labour because they will hopefully be 'better' than the conservatives and/or Reform, as they are both the same thing in my mind.
If we can put Craig Whittaker to pasture in the process, then all the better!
we aren’t even half way through the campaign yet!
The election is in just under 3 weeks?
Could be a perfect storm for Labour, the vote being eroded from all sides. Shit.My money is still on labour to win but I don’t think it will be the landslide some predict.
I've got the same fears. Everyone thought Remain had it in the bag until the final day or two.
"It might be close but no-one would be that stupid..."
Same risk here. Everyone thinks there'll be a Labour landslide so some don't bother to vote, some vote for the joke/sympathy candidate, some spoil their papers and before you know it Farage has got his way into the House of Commons.
🤯
Farage attracted some Labour voters in the referendum, Boris attracted them to "get Brexit done", they were always going to attract votes from Labour this time round as well.
That plane crash really was a "what if" moment for the country.
There seems to be little interest in debating policy any longer - it's turned into Labour should to win at all costs - no matter what poor show they put on.
All the Centrist's screaming about being anti-EU and anti-austerity from many members has become muffled.
Well, the undoing of this is probably none of the improvement we all wanted and fracturing of the political system to allow more right-wing attitudes to prevail.
I mean the size of the spend in Labour's manifesto is paltry and still the Express is digging into it - it doesn't matter what you believe you are doing to form a credible government it will never be enough for the right-wing media.
All Starmer had to do in the face of a collapsing Tory party was put some robust progressive stuff out there that would make a difference, but the coward and serial liar has screwed up the future too.
In other news - the Guardian is getting there. (Even though it gets the detail totally wrong.) It is moving closer to reality to challenge narratives on house-hold spending analogy.
The shadow chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has talked about the Conservatives “maxing out the credit card”, and Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak have also used the analogy.
During the Covid-19 pandemic the Bank of England created £450bn of bonds and invited investors to buy them. These bonds funded about the same amount of spending by the government
This is particularly cock-eyed as the BoE of purchased these bonds themselves!
But it's broadly the right point.
The political choice is fund insufficiently
Yep. Take the costs of a private school per child and put that same amount per child into every state school.
Pay the teachers the same, give the teachers the same conditions, provide all the same things to the children etc,.
Can anybody argue that it is not money well spent?
.
All Starmer had to do in the face of a collapsing Tory party was put some robust progressive stuff out there that would make a difference, but the coward and serial liar has screwed up the future too.
I thought (a while ago) that he might be deliberately keeping his head down, don't say anything too contentious or divisive, let the Tories destroy themselves and then come in with some genuine stuff - maybe even along the lines of closer ties with the EU, some decent bits on Net Zero, environment etc.
But all he's doing is being a sort of "we're marginally less shit than the Tories". And he's managing to get caught up in culture war nonsense as well.
It's disappointing.
It's also disappointing that Green/Lib Dem can't win much, the only option (if your main aim is to get the Tories out) is Labour.
Suggestions that Reform growth may be being influenced by clever targeted Bot activity from non British sources. That sounds quite familiar to the referendum iirc. I wonder if there's any link?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1335nj316lo
Last night's debate.
Daisy Cooper understands there is only one pool of labour and resources. Nail on head. To the left of Labour, and total understand of real limitations, so don't split it between private and public!
Farage: "The National Cake" WTF
theotherjonv
Full Member
Suggestions that Reform growth may be being influenced by clever targeted Bot activity from non British sources. That sounds quite familiar to the referendum iirc. I wonder if there’s any link?
The same people would benefit. If I remember correctly, Johnson would've even allow an investigation into potential Russian meddling in the referendum vote. It stunk then and it still does.
More to the point, it would be a miracle if Putin wasn't meddling given the war in Ukraine. Hell, he'd still be upto it without the war, he doesn't need a reason, it's what he does. Destabilise and sow doubt/ division.
on other election matters.
My wife, me and daughter have routinely had postal votes in case we are away. My son's going to be allowed to vote for the first time and has registered and has a normal vote.
I know you can drop a postal vote off at the polling station on the day, for that last minute waverer.... but I quite fancy doing old school and going with him. Partly so if I'm exit polled, I can tell them I'm a labour supporter voting LD because I want you (tory supporter, too much to hope the candidate turns up) to get an absolute spanking locally and nationally.
Overly vindictive?
Definitely Labour for me. I have a number of reservations about them, but it's too-close-to-call here and I want Robert Jenrick out! Ironically my GB News-watching boss will be helping by voting Reform.
If the Reform % in polls is similar to that of the Tories, why are they still predicted no seats? Is it simply that their supporters are spread out across many constituencies, so not likely to get a majority in any one?
There seems to be little interest in debating policy any longer
Because this is the election thread and in an election you don't vote for individual policies, you vote for your local representative which effectively means voting for a party and their basket of policies. For most people though its an emotional and not well thought through decision. For most of the sensible on here the best we can hope for is no more right wing chaos and a stabilisation of the current decline. An improvement would be great but one step at a time. You'll have plenty of opportunity to rant about Labour post election but given your adherence to mad monetary theory I doubt you'll be happy regardless of who is in power.
If the Reform % in polls is similar to that of the Tories, why are they still predicted no seats? Is it simply that their supporters are spread out across many constituencies, so not likely to get a majority in any one?
IANA Polling E, so can't say this as FACT! but basically this.
It's the argument for, and some would argue in this case, against PR vs FPTP
Apart from them not liking foreigners does anyone know what else Deform stand for?
Does farage support Ukraine? Will he clean the rivers, sort the nhs ,roads etc.
Are the Deform bots done by them or the Russians?
Are the Deform bots done by them or the Russians?
My earlier comment was tongue in cheek, I'm well aware of who was (allegedly) behind the Leave bot campaign - and also note as above that it seems strange that Johnson would then block an investigation into interference. I note too the BBC article pointing strongly at the messages being generated by non-English speakers.
I'm not saying it was/is Vlad, but that's only because I don't like polonium tea.
Overly vindictive?
In this election, after the last 14 years, you can't be too vindictive.
Sunak concluded his first day without any formal bilateral meetings with any other G7 leaders. He held a 10-minute conversation with Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy. On Sunak’s request, the pair took a walk through the grounds of the golf club hosting the summit and spoke at length about Ukraine. They embraced at the end and Zelensky wished Sunak “all the best”.
1) "10-minute conversation...spoke at length"
2) TFW Zelenskiy shakes your hand and sheds a tear bc he knows it's the last time he will see you before your certain defeat...
No politician wants to be seen with a loser as they’re scared the stench of defeat might rub off on them.
His new Italian host literally recoiled in horror when he went to greet her
He cut the same sad and lonely figure as Theresa May at that last EU conference
Does farage support Ukraine?
I doubt it. At the time that Corbyn was warning us the threat that Putin posed, and the Russian oligarchs were bankrolling the Tory Party, Nigel Farage was very publicly and brazenly declaring his admiration for Putin.
In fact Farage claimed that Putin was the leader that he admired most in the world.
Not been following any Farage interviews, for telly preservation reasons, but I assume he's been nailed to the wall over his professed love for Putin by every interviewer? 🙂
I assume he’s been nailed to the wall over his professed love for Putin by every interviewer? 🙂
I actually think that the single biggest chink in Nigel Farage's armour is his solid support for Donald Trump.
However popular Donald Trump might be in the United States opinion polls show that he is deeply unpopular in the UK. And Trump certainly doesn't get a sympathetic press here.
I reckon Farage's political opponents should exploit his admiration and support for the convicted criminal as it is very current and easily proven.
As far as I am aware no one is attacking Farage from that angle. In fact no one seems to be attacking Farage from any angle, apart from the occasional object thrown at him.
I'm starting to think that only poor health might stop Farage. And I'm happy to say that his health doesn't appear to be very good. He's certainly in a lot of pain, which is a shame.
Reform in second place in the polls. So we still want PR?
Reform in second place in the polls. So we still want PR?
Yep,
Because without PR, Reform gets to form the government in 5 years time with a 100+ majority based on 30% of the vote.
Yes. Absolutely essernt6ial to modernise the UK. Works well where it is used, provides much better representative government and we would not have had the hard right tory governments. Name one UK election where right wing parties got more than 50% of the vote? I don't thin k Thatcher ever did. Her majorities were built on a divided anti tory vote. Possible one parliament pre brexit?
Far right parties in countries with PR:
The site that was linked to earlier showed voting intention by previous vote. The only big change was previous Tory to Reform this time. The Labour to Reform shift was tiny.
Depending on how you count it the electorate voted overall against the Brexit parties in 2019. But it depends on what you believe the Labour “close ties” stance really was.
The site that was linked to earlier showed voting intention by previous vote. The only big change was previous Tory to Reform this time. The Labour to Reform shift was tiny.
Curtice reckoned the Labour sag was to LibDem driven by folk assuming the landslide was a forgone conclusion.
Unwinding tactical voting effectively.
I'd rather have a smaller Labour majority and LD as the official opposition than a gigantic one and still have Tories getting air time.
Agreed
