So far a labour win is banked, obviously. But now I’m feeling that more than a hundred Tory seats will be a disappointment. I would truly love to see less than 50, although unlikely. So is 50-100 seats considered wipe out territory?
In the real world <150?
The polls showing <50 are unrealistic because the further it drifts away from the last election / normal the more margin for error there is.
The fewer seats they stand a chance of winning the more likely they are to hold them as they can focus their resources. It's the opposite of 2010 when the polls showed huge support for the Lib Dems but that doesn't translate into winning seats.
Defections one thing, mergers another. And there are massive (and I would suggest insurmountable) hurdles in terms of party structures, campaigning expectations etc. etc. Plus in the same way the Tory membership is more RW than the parliamentary party, the LD membership is largely more (centre-)left, and as we’ve discussed previously, because of the LD structure, they’d have to sign off any merger.
I agree with this. Either the Conservatives will find a Starmer-Right like Cameron who can drag them back towards sensible politics or there'll be an exodus of talent to the Lib Dems. Not a merger, but double digit defections.
Their saving grace will be that they have such an established party machine behind them. Will donors move with defecting MP's (which would require the Lib dems to become more liberal when it comes to business) or will they stick with the Conservatives and back candidates?
With a merger you bring your structures, donors, and assets/premises, with you, which makes you very attractive to others.
If the Tory right defect to Reform UK and the Tory left defects elsewhere, what happens to the structures and assets?
the more I think about I think it was just a Sunak decision, just childish petulance, I'd don't want to go and you can't make me, OK I'll do the morning.
The polls showing <50 are unrealistic because the further it drifts away from the last election / normal the more margin for error there is.
The betting world is much more accurate generally I find when it comes to these sorts of things. Asking folks their opinion is one thing, asking them to put their money on it is something else altogether. When the odds for over a 100 seats are drifting [as much as they are] the Tories should be in full on panic-mode. Given the amount of un-forced gaff/errors they're making, I'm guessing they are. I'm cautiously starting to think we're gong to experience a genuine historical event in a few weeks.
@ernielynch I suspect a lot of the assets etc. belong to local parties (and as we know they're all very RW). If (and it's a massive if) the Conservatives cease to exist a lot of eg. Conservative clubs might become Reform clubs.
@nickc On the other hand there's a feedback loop with political betting where if people put a lot of money on one outcome the bookies shorten the odds to mitigate any loss. Didn't we see this with JC in 2017?
Oh sure, it's noise not signal, but it's only pointing in one direction.
@ernielynch I suspect a lot of the assets etc. belong to local parties (and as we know they’re all very RW). If (and it’s a massive if) the Conservatives cease to exist a lot of eg. Conservative clubs might become Reform clubs.
Yes but they are not all Reform UK right-wing. In binners scenario of a Tory-Reform merger it would leave many Tories disenfranchised.
If there was no difference between Reform UK and the Tory Party there would be no need for Reform UK in the first place.
There is an exaggerated belief by some that all Tories are as right-wing as the likes of Suella Braverman. That is clearly not the case.
Edit: Anyway we are jumping the gun straying into increasingly hypothetical situations, the total wipeout of the Tory Party is far from certain, and TBH is unlikely. They will almost certainly remain the official opposition party after July 4th
Yes but they are not all Reform UK right-wing. In binners scenario of a Tory-Reform merger it would leave many Tories disenfranchised.
a majority! reform voters when polled say that they like farage , but would not want him as PM, they know he's a wrecker
There are still plenty of moderate Tories left voting for them, farage would see that end
I thought it was well-established that Tory voters are generally more moderate than Tory party members? I agree though, there will be a decent chunk of moderates in both groups who will be thinking 'to Hell with this', which of course is why chasing the Reform vote benefits Lab/LDs
I thought it was well-established that Tory voters are generally more moderate than Tory party members?
This is me. I have voted Conservative all of my voting life. At it's core, the Conservative belief of 'work hard and reap the rewards' whilst still maintaining humility and care for the greater good is closely matched to mine.
BUT.....Rishi's bunch aren't even 1% Conservative in the true sense and intent of the party's values. If they were, they would get my vote. But they aren't.
Instead they are a bunch self serving, badly-intended, elitist, incompetent, irrelevant, infighting immature children. There is nothing about this incarnation of the Conservative Party (or that of the previous 14 years) that matches my values, or my understanding of what middle-right politics should represent. It is a bit disappointing that the word 'Conservative' has become so inextricably linked to the disaster of the last 14 years, and Rishi's current incarnation. This bunch represent the party on the ballot sheet, but they don't represent the values of the party in reality.
A Labour government will cost me personally, but I can't vote for the Conservatives as they are and Reform are a dangerous bunch of fascists that need to be kept out of Westminster at all costs. The 'beer drinking pub landlord' facade that Farage presents is just a front for his truly evil neo-Nazi beliefs and I am frankly embarassed that I share this country with so many people that might be tempted to vote for them, or that are stupid enough to fall for his lies a second time around after Brexit has proven to be catastrophic and the vote based on lies and bigotry.
Last one out of the country, please turn the lights out. We are headed for rocky waters.
Last one out of the country, please turn the lights out. We are headed for rocky waters.
Er, you don't think that Labour will do any better?
Interesting solarider. I know a few centre-right one nation tory voters and they all say exactly the same. Scale that up to the rest of the country I think we can safely assume the tories are f*****! July 4th is going to be quite a spectacle, I don't think I've ever looked forward to a general election as much as this one.
Er, you don’t think that Labour will do any better?
Nope. Best of a bad bunch.
Er, you don’t think that Labour will do any better?
I think the countries finance, structures and society is so screwed up that no matter what Labour do, things will not turn around quickly.
Today's anti Tory sentiment will quickly become anti Labour sentiment.
And no, I don't think Labour are much better.
Thanks as your post was an interesting take on where the Tories currently are from a Conservative voter perspective.👍
@solarider - genuinely curious how the Labour party will cost you?
I don't like Kier but he is at least a competent politician.
I don't think Labour will be great, just a middling GCSE grade C type government, but the current lot are epically shit at their jobs regardless of your political alignment. They aren't even GCSE ungraded, they are the ones who ****ed off before even taking GCSEs
I think the predictions of the demise of the Tory party are a bit premature. I think around 100 seats is realistic.
Happy to be proved wrong though.
A Labour government will cost me personally,
me too. but I'd rather that money went to making the country a better place than making the 0.1% even richer.
And no, I don’t think Labour are much better.
Even with my well documented reservations about Starmer and Reeves I think given the monumental clusterf***ery of the tories it's almost impossible for Labour not to be much, much better. They could be hugely better depending on what they decide to do on July 5th. In public they'll be coy and say they're sticking to the plan laid out in the manifesto and the campaign, but they'll have such an enormous mandate that behind the scenes they could rip it all up and do what the hell they like. That will almost certainly involve a massive injection of cash into the NHS and other collapsing public services, pay deals for doctors and other public sector workers, and an immediate clampdown on tax avoidance and dodgy practices and contracts which tory-friendly businesses currently benefit from.
And no, I don’t think Labour are much better.
Well things can't be as bad as some people make out then.
If they were really that bad it wouldn't take a great deal to make things better.
Although I am not sure that it is a widely held opinion - there is a reason that "Things Can Only Get Better" drowning Rishi Sunak's announcement of a general election hit such a cord with so many people.
I'm pretty similar to Solarider but also haven't voted Tory in a long time, maybe I'm not a Tory voter anymore. This resonates with me
work hard and reap the rewards’ whilst still maintaining humility and care for the greater good
and is I think where a lot of conservative (deliberate small c) voters are which is why we often get so annoyed at being lumped in with current Conservative party, we believe in community, support for people and equality of opportunity. We just think there is a different more workable way of getting there than the left.
Anyway team Sunak are so far away from traditional conservative ideals it's not surprising they are toast and deservedly so. Having I do think the current incarnation of Labour will improve things, it'll be slow and painful but I think Starmer will try to do the right things, whether he succeeds is to be reviewed in 5 years.
I think the countries finance, structures and society is so screwed up that no matter what Labour do, things will not turn around quickly.
I now think of the UK in classic car terms.
This once iconic example of style, great design,with looks and performance to match.
Admired and envied all over the world,it was the place to go if you wanted the ride of your life.
Alas,it's been on a disrespected joy ride over the last few decades with quick fixes ,bodged repairs and almost zero investment.
The new caretakers are going to have a huge restoration job to do if they want to save it.
genuinely curious how the Labour party will cost you?
I don’t like Kier but he is at least a competent politician.
I suspect anyone working "outisde IR35"* or who actually runs a genuine business will pay more under labour as their only wiggle room left to raise significant funding is corporation taxes. That and in an unlikely Tory win where NI get's abolished it'll have to be replaced with something (or some budget cuts / freezes), likely in the form of fiscal drag on income tax bands.
OTOH, Tory's are acting like the Lib Dems normally do. There's not a cat in hells chance of them getting anywhere near power so they're saying whatever they like. Their low tax experiment will never see the light of day whether you're on the side that would benefit or not.
*I've nothing against the system, but the "disguised employee" contracting in IT, engineering, media, etc. Is in most cases is wearing a pound shop glasses and moustache mask.
This is me. I have voted Conservative all of my voting life. At it’s core, the Conservative belief of ‘work hard and reap the rewards’ whilst still maintaining humility and care for the greater good is closely matched to mine.
So no different to my beliefs, as a Labour/SNP voter.
A Labour government will cost me personally,
When you voted Tory in 2019 did you imagine that we'd be paying the highest levels of tax since the 50's, under YOUR Tory Govt?
Just answered the door to a chap wearing a blue rosette. Admire the chutzpah, shook my head and told him I wasn't interested in any of it. He laughed!!
genuinely curious how the Labour party will cost you?
This is a one policy statement - VAT on independent school fees. Comes back to my beliefs as outlined above.
As a pre-cursor, I was state educated and have done well for myself. I am a firm believer in state education and the NHS for healthcare. As with any parent, you want your children to do better than you, and I fear that we are the first generation where this might not be possible.
The state schools in our catchment are underperforming and I want the best for solarider jnr. Despite the sacrifices, we therefore elect to send him to an independent school. This isn't Harrow. Pupils don't turn up in chauffeured helicopters and riding polo ponies down streets paved with freshly ironed £50 notes. If you want to google the school, it is the Royal Grammar School in Guildford. One of the best schools in the country and streets ahead of the local state schools academically and pastorally.
Let's outline the 'sacrifices', because they are distinctly first world. We have food on the table, a roof over our head, a car on the drive and clothes on our backs. But once the bills are paid, we have very little disposable cash. We don't eat out or buy takeaways. We don't holiday. I have a bit of a bike habit, but we don't spend money like water. We can (just about) afford the school fees, so I don't expect sympathy, but once they are paid, that's the money gone
Many of the parents at the school gate are the same. Contrary to popular belief the independent school sector is not the preserve of oligarchs, and the few that do fall into that bracket can afford VAT on fees.
Do I wish that the state schools were better? Yes.
Do I wish that the public sector generally was better funded? Yes.
Do I wish I didn't have to find the money to pay for education on top of the National Insurance and Tax that I pay on a monthly basis to fund a service that I don't use? Yes.
Do I wish that the Grammar School system existed in our part of the country so that I could guarantee him the best possible start for free? Yes.
But can we afford £400 a month more to fund VAT on school fees? No. Definitely absolutely not.
Now I know the statistics. Less than 20% of the country have children of school age. Of those, less than 2% send their kids to independent school. I therefore appreciate that I am in the minority, and that most people think there should be VAT on posh kids' perks, and that Labour don't care about alienating the small % of the population that this impacts that probably won't vote for them anyway.
But it is real for us. Labour's decision will for us (and about 50,000 families nationally) fundamentally alter the affordability of a life choice that we have made. That means that 50,000 more kids are going to flood the state system overnight. A system that cannot cope as it stands. A system that isn't going to benefit nearly as much as Labour think for the VAT raised on fees, because such a big chunk of kids will withdraw from the system to avoid paying them. A system that will not benefit from 6,500 new teachers as quickly as 50,000 new pupils will come through the school gate.
I do not associate with and cannot vote for the Conservatives any more. Labour will definitively cost me £5,000 a year, which is pretty much our entire disposable income. That's not a Rishi stat, it's an inescapable fact. Furthermore I don't think that I am the kind of voter that they will think twice about targeting for even more money. I pay tax (rather a lot of it) rather avoiding it. I am well off, but not super rich so I pay everything in full and work hard to do well. I should be exactly the type of voter that should be Conservative. But if they have even pissed me off, what hope have they got?
I will be voting Labour despite the cost.
When you voted Tory in 2019 did you imagine that we’d be paying the highest levels of tax since the 50’s, under YOUR Tory Govt?
When I voted in 2019, I didn't see Covid coming. I know it is a well trodden excuse, but there isn't a magic money tree in the Downing Street rose garden. Covid was the single biggest shock to the system that we have experienced in our lifetime and dealing with it cost money. I don't think it was dealt with well, but whoever was in power, there wasn't a solution that wasn't going to cost, and somebody has to pay for it.
No, I don't enjoy paying such high taxes. I am not about to disclose the detail of my tax affairs, but I pay a lot of tax a month, so I have a real interest in how it is spent. It is highly unlikely that a Labour government will lower my taxes. The finances of the country and their wish list of policies won't permit it. That's precisely why I have to make decisions on what I know (for example VAT on school fees) rather than what I believe. Unfortunately most of the voting population vote on belief - hence the dangerous rise of the Reform party and a man (Farage) who is, by his own admission, a disruptor. He just wants to see the world burn. To quote from a movie - 'he is a dog chasing a car, but he wouldn't know what to do with one if he caught it'. Well, there's a danger he might just catch that car this time around, and what then?
Seems Sunak has found a spade 😕
Christ now he's gone on telly and given a complete non-apology in the guise of an entitled hooray-henry. He might as well have said 'do you people not know who I am?'. Keep digging RIshi, it's the best entertainment I've seen in ages. Seriously beginning to think this could be the first time in history where a PM has resigned as party leader in the middle of an election campaign. 😳
solarider
the Conservative belief of ‘work hard and reap the rewards’ whilst still maintaining humility and care for the greater good
I'm 52 and as far as I can tell The Conservative Party have never, in my lifetime, stood for this. They represent every man and his (public school) chums for himself . Oh and **** the proles for good measure.
I fail to understand how anyone could think any different if they were actually paying attention to what they do rather than what they say.
Speeder - you fail to see the difference between the Conservative ideology and the Conservative Party reality.
Communism ideology has many virtuous aspects, but has never been well executed. Similarly, the beliefs of the Conservative movement have been hijacked and bastardised by an elitist few in the parliamentary party, which sits fundamentally at odds with many of their voters' own beliefs and values. Party allegiance in this country has come down more to a negative process of elimination than a positive affirmation of belief. I have voted Conservative in the past based on not wanting Labour to rule, not because I 100% agreed with everything that they do. This time around, the opposite is true.
In a slightly less vitriolic way, I am agreeing with you. But please don't believe that anybody in positions of power or authority are as incorruptible and biased as you think, regardless of their politics. They are all ultimately self serving, and influenced by a very small and close group of associates who are all fairly selfish in their intent.
If you take nothing out of my posts above, please take this. I am a Conservative at heart. I will be voting Labour. Not because I like Labour. But because the Conservatives no longer represent me, and because I want to keep Reform as far away from the running of this country as I possibly can. It is a 2 horse race. Anything else is a wasted vote. Both horses should be shot and turned into glue, but one has slightly more life in it than the other which has mutated into something vaguely shaped like a horse, but not really a horse.
solarider, the reality is 50K kids won't appear at state schools banging on the door on day 1. Quite possibly in 5 years time there will be a 50K kid shift - but realistically most people with a pupil already happy in a school will find a way to make it work until that pupil finished that school/stage of study; schools will find more ways to help those who struggle etc.
Whilst 50K more pupils to teach sounds like a bad thing these aren't 50K more pupils just like the average demographic. These are 50K pupils who's parents have aspirations, who are likely to engage with the school, support the school in trying to make learning better and maybe even chuck some cash at the school's extracurricular initiatives etc. In some areas the reason some state schools are "poorer" is because anyone that can afford to sends there pupils to private school. It becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.
If the move causes the collapse of independent schools it will presumably mean there are more (probably quite good) teachers on the market. If it doesn't cause that, it probably hasn't resulted in the level of "pupil relocation" you think.
I'm not that excited about putting VAT on Private School fees, but there's clearly something wrong in society where people can buy their kids an advantage in life whether thats by private educations, affording a more expensive house in the catchment area, paying their uni fees, networking them an internship etc. I 100% understand why people do it - that doesn't mean its what we should want the country to be. There's winners and losers in every election.
Sky News have been showing a clip of an interview with a 98-year-old veteran in Normandy today about yesterday’s events. Ken Hay told viewers “What can you say? They are politicians. They are politicians”. Asked about Sunak leaving early when Biden, Macron and Scholz all stayed, he observed that Rishi Sunak had departed because “he’s electioneering”. Hay continued: I think he let’s the country down, you know. It’s not representation of how we’re trying to weld things together to keep the peace. Blimey it’s bad enough with what Putin’s doing. And the Chinese possibly doing it, not necessarily in warfare but in other forms. What are we doing? We bail out. Let them get on with it. Because I want to stand in the election. I want my seat back.
From the guardian feed. Oof!
At it’s core, the Conservative belief of ‘work hard and reap the rewards’ whilst still maintaining humility and care for the greater good is closely matched to mine.
doesn't that just end up as "the poor are lazy" ?
At it’s core, the Conservative belief of ‘work hard and reap the rewards’
More like 'ask your privately educated chums for a favour and reap the rewards'. The tory party are a party of spivs. Working hard doesn't even come into it.
@solarider if you're struggling to find the extra £400 a month for your kids school fees after the election have you considered working harder or finding a higher paid job? That's the usual tory solution isn't it?
doesn’t that just end up as “the poor are lazy” ?
There are 2 answers here:
Answer 1
Yep, that's right. The poor, the disabled, lefties, gays etc etc etc. Everybody that believes in conservative principles thinks that the ladder should be pulled up behind them and their privileged mates once they have done well. They all get together in their private gentlemens' clubs to smoke big cigars and laugh at the poor and reminisce about their Eton days and being buggered by the headmaster.
Answer 2
No. No it doesn't. Doing well yourself does not preclude you from having a caring approach to society and those around you. The 2 should not be mutually exclusive, despite appearances to the contrary around the current cabinet table.
Your choice. It feels like some of the more blinkered posters might think it is answer 1, but I don't. This has been a great place to come and reflect on whether a vote for Labour is actually the best thing to do afterall, and whether in fact the party still has its extremists just as every party does.
poly - my sister runs a number of colleges in South London and sits on the panel that have spent many hours working through the political and economic rationalization of Labour's VAT on Fees manifesto pledge on behalf of the party. The number that has been put into that calculation is indeed 50,000. Again, that isn't a made up stat for effect, it comes directly from the think tank that have informed Labour's decision. Perhaps you have greater insight, but the policy itself has been based on that number. Do you have different insight?
you fail to see the difference between the Conservative ideology and the Conservative Party reality
In terms of ideology, Labour is also about allowing people to work hard and reap the rewards. What they want to do is make it less shit for people at the lower end of society. 100 years ago that was working class people in factories and mines who were being exploited by the rich owners, now it's the disadvantaged who are being abandoned by society and not being given the help they need. Many Tory party supporters seem to think that Labour just wants to steal their money and give it to the lazy and work-shy, but this is of course propaganda.
The same goes for Labour party reality as Tories of course - in aiming to do implement these things they don't always get it right. And similarly, the idea that Tories are all cigar smoking fat cat moneybags is also false. I would happily vote Tory if I thought they were going to give the disadvantaged the help that they need, but somehow that never seems to be on the cards. Likewise I would not vote Labour if I thought they were going to steal all my money and give it to lazy people who can't be bothered to work. Unless it were via a combination of UBI and rent controls - that I would vote for.
Midway through the D-Day celebration, I went for a walk and somehow found myself on a train that took me to a small airport. I mistakenly got on a helicopter that took me back to London
Cheer up and take the positives. See not having paid VAT as a nice tax break for the privileged. Maybe soon you'll pay VAT like you would for any other business service and you're making a contribution to society which you weren't before.
Covid was the single biggest shock to the system that we have experienced in our lifetime and dealing with it cost money. I don’t think it was dealt with well, but whoever was in power, there wasn’t a solution that wasn’t going to cost, and somebody has to pay for it.
It might have been the "single biggest shock" but the Tories did manage to also add 3x this to the National Debt during their premierships, and for what?
Labour will definitively cost me £5,000 a year, which is pretty much our entire disposable income.
School Fees is interesting, our kids went to private schools and we paid (not grandparents or anything) - feels to me you're choosing something you can't afford if £5k is your "entire disposable income".
And based on the increases in school fees over the years, they've gone up by far more than average wage inflation (looking at the prices now for where we sent ours), how long will you actually be able to afford to do it anyway?
In terms of ideology, Labour is also about allowing people to work hard and reap the rewards.
I would say more so since traditionally anyway its been about equality of opportunity which tends to be glossed over in the tory version.
There are few if any believers in that supposed tory belief who really put it to the test without a finger on the scales. Private schools being a good example as a multiplier to the level of work.
