Sunak used to work for a hedge fund.....I can only think he has placed a humungous "short" (bet against) the number of Tory seats after this move from hapless (when in office) through farce (asking Welsh voters for their hopes for the Euros) to outright insult.
Clearly not at this election, but at some point, I get a horrible feeling Farage will end up as PM
Not a chance! Even this country isn’t that mental. Yet.
My prediction is that, after the electoral wipeout, through some kind or merger with Reform and what’s left of the Tory party (they’re the same in all but name anyway) he’ll end up as Tory party leader/leader of the opposition,
There are too many people who find him utterly repellent for him to be PM
Yes, Sunak leaving early is immensely politically inept, BUT the "Labour will tax you an extra 2K a year" is still a story. Even by going on TV to deny its a lie keeps it in the headlines, and that number is all some voters will hear.
Apparently he wasn't even going to attend at all!
A UK PM not going to the 80th anniversary of D Day!
https://reaction.life/d-day-tory-fury-sunak-leaves-early-french-told-he-would-not-attend/
I worry that Labour are showing little sign of cultivating the kind of change people need. After the election Farage could be pretty well placed to attempt an Italian clown manoeuvre for 2029.
In advising him to call the election the spads behind Sunak will have considered the d-day events and the Euro footy hype to have been the best opportunities to drum up some kind of Tory patriotic support. Desperate stuff.
For the Euros, Sunak will obviously do what they all did last time. Keep their heads down until Engerland make it out of the group stage, then send a minion down to JD Sports to get them a top to be photographed in, fresh out of the packaging.
https://Twitter.com/pritipatel/status/1412892001767460873
Maybe he’ll try and pair it with some of the old school Adidas he claims to love for that totally genuine, authentic and not remotely contrived or embarrassing ‘terrace casual’ look?
the spads behind Sunak will have considered the d-day events and the Euro
Honestly, I don't think they did. These are not the sorts of folks for whom footy is in their view. It's certainly not for Sunak if he manages to ask some Welsh folks if they're looking forward to it - and Sunak is supposedly 'good on detail' and looking to sneak out of the celebrations of D-Day is desperate stuff really, especially if that photo of Starmer deep in conversation with Zelensky starts to get more traction.
The more Tory chaos I see and read about about, the more the July choice seems to be a "Ah, **** it" date pulled out of thin air without much real consideration.
Sunak has Dominic Raab on speed dial
Maybe he’ll try and pair it with some of the old school Adidas he claims to love for that totally genuine, authentic and not remotely contrived or embarrassing ‘terrace casual’ look?
I reckon he might go full Stone Island. It would be a great move from his sleeper SPADs. Absolutely cringeworthy.
Good to see Sunak on 'form' and that more and more folk are seeing him for what he is, a total grifter.
He doesn't GAS about the UK, nor any other country (note how he had a US Green Card and then gave it up) - he's a member of the "live where it suits at the time" group, he can afford to.
My prediction is that, after the electoral wipeout, through some kind or merger with Reform and what’s left of the Tory party
I am not predicting anything but if there is the widely suggested total Tory wipeout I can see a situation where the Tory Party splits, one section merging with Reform UK and another refusing to have anything to do with the merger.
Since long term I can see the possibility of being in government causing serious splits within the Labour Party I guess it might not be unthinkable for the non-culture war section of the Tory Party to merge with the Starmer faction of the Labour Party.
Although a merger with the Liberal Democrats would probably be more likely.
But all this is just wild speculation, there is no way you can predict the political situation in even a month's time. And if the opinion polls are to be believed UK politics is now entering uncharted waters.
He doesn’t GAS about the UK, nor any other country (note how he had a US Green Card and then gave it up) – he’s a member of the “live where it suits at the time” group, he can afford to.
The irony being that his Brexit support withdrew all our rights to live and work in other countries, but as one of the international super-rich elite, he and his family can live and travel wherever the hell they like.
Is there anyone who doesn’t believe he’ll be watching the sunset over Santa Monica boulevard on July 5th. I bet his bags are already packed
what are the odds of Sunak not making it to July 4th as PM ?
Angela Rayner in the torygraph: https://archive.is/rU3jN
Another round of 'help (developers) to buy', great 🙄
I went down the pub yesterday after work and haven't seen any news til this morning due to my phone running out of battery and now my mind is completely blown. Never in a lifetime of politics following did I ever imagine that an incumbent UK PM - especially a tory one - would not fully attend a remembrance event in the middle of an election campaign, and one of this significance!
I reckon those tories who wanted to get rid of Sunak before the election are probably screaming at their colleagues on various whatsapp groups right now. Unbelievable.
Although a merger with the Liberal Democrats would probably be more likely.
No.
Well although there have been high profile defections from the Tory Party to Labour recently I nevertheless still think that close collaboration between the left of the Tory Party and the LibDems is more likely.
Not simply because of the previous coalition government but because historically there has been movement between the Tories and the LibDems, and the Liberal Party before that.
What the hell is going on with this website?
.
I know your mind is blown daz but you are going to have to stop repeatedly pressing the submit button.
There's surely got to be a direct polling hit for this mega, champions league level gaff? Gaff is probably too light a word, big effing mistake. It's the kind of thing that will cut through way beyond any other policy he could announce.
@ernielynch Defections one thing, mergers another. And there are massive (and I would suggest insurmountable) hurdles in terms of party structures, campaigning expectations etc. etc. Plus in the same way the Tory membership is more RW than the parliamentary party, the LD membership is largely more (centre-)left, and as we've discussed previously, because of the LD structure, they'd have to sign off any merger.
It’s clear from various Tory Ministers performances this week that none of them are up to speed on their briefs, and how could you be when Rishi is apparently making up policy on the hoof?
The childrens minister not knowing how much child support is though?That’s next level stupidity. Has anyone actually heard of the grinning gimp until now?
Just heard Ferrari's call, and O'Brien's conversation with him - even #1 Tory Ferrari now knows he game is up.
Sunak's constituency include Catterick Garison, the largest british military base in the world with a population of 13,000
On the national swing it looks not that safe, Yougvs MRP gives Sunak a 9% majority
because of the LD structure, they’d have to sign off any merger.
The Liberal Democrat Party is itself the product of a merger!
Anyway I started off my comment with "I am not predicting anything". It was in response to binners's suggestion of a Tory-Reform merger which in itself is plausible.
I don't however believe that the left of the Tory Party would accept it. More likely imo they would either remain as a separate party or merge with Labour or the LibDems.
^ if the lib dems and greens hold their noses and reform farage bounce along with sitting on hands bob yer uncle ! 😉
Do current, 23 yo squaddies vote or care about D Day stuff, tho?
The only other country in Europe w FPTP is Belarus, which is not auspicious company.
Germany’s post-war electoral system was built by the UK, US and France as a PR system to keep dictators out. It’s been pretty successful.
There have also been 0 dictators under UK FPTP. Belarus uses FPTP; Russia uses PR. Maybe the voting system just doesn't explain these big dramatic differences.
@kimbers 3.4% majority
He has a 16% higher chance of winning than labour
thats the Electoral calculus one, the Yougov is more favourable for him, Im not sure how much their is an 'incimbent PM" factor built in? 
I think the question Reform UK will be asking is what was Rishi Sunak's grandad doing on D-Day.
For a man who shamelessly used asylum seekers as a tool to appeal to racists, bigots, and petty nationalists, it really was a major blunder.
I guess that Rishi Sunak doesn't have those qualities deeply ingrained in his fabric like proper Tories, despite trying his best.
I guess that Rishi Sunak doesn’t have those qualities deeply ingrained in his fabric like proper Tories, despite trying his best.
Think this will skewer Braverman and Badenoch's chances of following him. There's not a cat in hells chance blue rinse tory members will elect another non-white descendent of immigrants as their leader. Although I'm guessing B&B will be quietly relieved, who wants to lead a party with a dozen MPs?
Well, I'm fairly confident Truss would have been there. Probably in a Sherman tank
Terrible move by Sunak, unforgivable and the defining error of the campaign. So far.
At least it's getting clearer how she won the leadership campaign. Christ it's like a couple of one legged tramps in a bum kicking competition
In terms of a Tory wipeout, is there a defined number of seats to be classed as such?
I'm constantly having to readjust my expectations, and it's getting tricky to keep up. So far a labour win is banked, obviously. But now I'm feeling that more than a hundred Tory seats will be a disappointment. I would truly love to see less than 50, although unlikely. So is 50-100 seats considered wipe out territory?
So you are admitting to misrepresentation of data. Shocking behaviour there, you will never make an mp
Odds of 0-49 seats for the Tories are shortening. Odds of 100-149 are drifting.
So far a labour win is banked, obviously. But now I’m feeling that more than a hundred Tory seats will be a disappointment. I would truly love to see less than 50, although unlikely. So is 50-100 seats considered wipe out territory?
Reform are not standing in all seats afaik, at least 50 of them with Tory MPs, that could make a huge differebce
In terms of a Tory wipeout, is there a defined number of seats to be classed as such?
I guess dropping to 3rd place with the Lib Dems being the official opposition will represent an official wipeout. I suspect preventing that will now be the main ambition of the tory campaign.
The opposition benches in the commons are going to be looking a little sparse. Must be causing a few headaches in the palace of westminster operations dept.
Reform are not standing in all seats afaik, at least 50 of them with Tory MPs, that could make a huge differebce
I'm not sure it's really this well thought through... but it looks like Reform are avoiding seats where it's a LibDem/Tory battle. Perhaps because they don't fancy their chances taking votes of the LibDems (but do hope take votes of Labour elsewhere)? Or perhaps because they hope beyond hope to become the third party in parliament, so would rather the Conservatives held their seats where the LibDems could take them.
