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The reality of the election for me is that there are a lot of tory voters, who are talking about not voting tory, who will wake up on July 4th and vote tory. It will not be as huge a loss as polls are stating, but it should be a loss, with Labour gaining control.
After that, the hard work will start, there's a lot going on within the UK borders, and a hell of a lot more happening outside them that'll shape the next 5 years, the battle fronts that are being set are just the usual bluff and bluster stuff we get every election, immigration is a great example, it's such a huge issue that during this tory tenure, it's gone to record levels, i can't see how we can keep increasing the level with the numbers we've had in the last 2 years, it's just something politicians talk a lot about, but never actually do much about it, as everyone knows, most of the immigration is the UKs lifeblood.
As an example, there’s the Saudi MOFA student programme in the UK...
That link is about visas for non-Saudi students going to study in Saudi Arabia.
Parents or chaperones were not "dependents" for the purposes of UK student visas even before the most recent announcements.
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9920/
The very latest opinion has Labour on a truly huge 46% with the Tories on their lowest rating for Savanta in 4 years.
Putting that into the FT seat predictor. Another example of Reform increasing the LibDem share and look at those LAB seats:
Might have been posted already but I think Curtice was suggesting that because the perception is that Lab have this sewn up, some LD and Green voters were drifting away from voting tactically and more to voting for their preferred party.
Curtice also says that Starmer is even less popular than Cameron and the Times predicts that Starmer in office means 5yrs of cuts in public expenditure. I don't think he'll be long in office before the matter hits the fan and that people begin to realise that 'My Labour Party' has become Change UK - the Independent Group.
Has anyone got money on a seat share like the one in slowoldman's post? Proper money?
I am really struggling to see the tory seat count dropping below 100, let alone them becoming the third party. That's not to say it wouldn't be a delight to see, i'm just not seeing it as an outcome
And the LD seat count is roughly similar to around the 2010 point, so not outrageous
That said, their treatment should the torys not be the official opposition will be hilarious.
That link is about visas for non-Saudi students going to study in Saudi Arabia.
Parents or chaperones were not “dependents” for the purposes of UK student visas even before the most recent announcements
I just did a quick search for a MOFA link for reference
Believe me, this is real.
For context, the MOFA buys private health insurance for these people. My job is pricing private health insurance. I've quoted on these populations many times. I've sat with the detailed census data of every single person they want to insure. It includes the students, their spouses and children if applicable. They also had many people who wanted grandparents, parents, aunts, uncles, nannies, drivers etc to be insured as well. I can't speak to the legality of those people and their visas, but they are a part of these populations and they are here in the UK. If they've got round visa restrictions, I can't comment on how that's happened as it's not something that concerns me but it's real
What about the 2017 hung parliament?
No a proper one where no one can agree a coalition. Then we get a new election in the Autumn. The Tories will ditch Sunak for someone on the right and the Labs will ditch Sir Keir for someone on the left (Raynor). At least then the country will have a choice instead of the current sliver to the left and sliver to the right, but mainly identical options we now have.
What about the 2017 hung parliament?
I forgot that - I suppose yes, technically it was a hung parliament. But there wasn't a coalition and no-one went into Gov with them as is normally the outcome, they had a confidence and supply agreement with the DUP (which they 'paid for' IIRC by extra funding into NI)
So when @skooby39 says "British politics recently has thrown up so many surprises and convoluted situations, and a hung parliament is about the only thing we’ve not had.." there's a pretty short definition of recently 😉
[edit] OK, see what you mean. I'm not sure what that technically is or when it last happened (if I recall one of the 70's Govs only lasted a year or so but not sure if that was a hung Parliament technically, just that majority was too small to get anything done)
No a proper one where no one can agree a coalition.
All parliaments where one party doesn't have a majority are hung parliaments!
You mean that you are hoping for one that can't survive.
Under the present conditions that seems extremely unlikely. The LibDems would definitely prop up a Labour government if necessary.
Also unlikely imo is that the Tories would ditch Sunak for someone even more right-wing. Unhappy Tories might form a new party with Reform UK but I can't see the official Conservative Party moving further to the right. In fact I would expect the complete opposite.
alanl's name goes on "the list".
But there wasn’t a coalition and no-one went into Gov with them as is normally the outcome
There were hung parliaments in the 1970s but no coalitions. Coalitions aren't necessarily the norm. There's only been one coalition government since WW2 but about 4 hung parliaments.
I am really struggling to see the tory seat count dropping below 100, let alone them becoming the third party.
On the one hand after 14 years many people are sick to death of nothing working and endless broken promises
Yet you can see a lot of usual tory voters at the last minute deciding to put an x against their local tory buffoon for a socialist Starmer 😁 tsunami taxing their pensions
But they're being squeezed not just by labour but by Reform and the lib dems.
Add in a bit of tactical voting + fptp & all of a sudden <100 seats seems very believable, having less seats than the lib dems does seem a stretch
This is an ultra-marginal constituency that changes hands regularly. The Tory majority is the smallest in the country at 100 votes, yet I’ve had a constant stream of Tory election bumph through the door. More arrived yesterday even though the latest local polls are predicting a labour majority of 3,500+.
What happens if you put yourself down as a tory wot-not and get given some of those leaflets to distribute? God forbid they end up in the recycling bin.
Unhappy Tories might form a new party with Reform UK but I can’t see the official Conservative Party moving further to the right. In fact I would expect the complete opposite.
Agree, there are a lot of people who have nowhere to go. Taking the sort of people I work with, they are what I would call nice tories and don't like the crap the tories are coming out with any more than I do but they vote tory because they think their money will be safer. They don't trust Labour and think they will be worse off so purely a selfish monetary thing (I do ask them how they were worse off under Blair's Labour and they can not answer that but that is another matter)
I would guess there are a good number of people in this position, privileged and a bit selfish who will never trust Labour however much Starmer courts them.
What happens if you put yourself down as a tory wot-not and get given some of those leaflets to distribute? God forbid they end up in the recycling bin.
We had a message from our leaflet coordinator saying that from a specific date any undelivered leaflets had to be returned to him. It seemed quite official.
Previous to that date we were able to bin them.
What happens if you put yourself down as a tory wot-not and get given some of those leaflets to distribute? God forbid they end up in the recycling bin.
That would be election interference and would be viewed very seriously. If you want to interfere you have to use proper channels, via PO Box 88, Red Square, Moscow.
PO Box 88
Is that deliberately 88?
so purely a selfish monetary thing
Not sure why wanting to hang onto your hard earned cash is selfish....
As for money being safer with the Tories for higher incomes, they need to look at the last 14 years, lower income households now pay less tax* and the top 10% of earners income tax contribution has gone from 55% to 60% of total income tax. The Tories do not care about normal higher income people, they still see them as a cash cow. You need to be uber rich for the Torys to care about you. So if you're going to pay more either way might as well vote Labour and hope the money gets spent wisely rather than being funneled to the uber rich.
*Can't remember the exact details but it was on more or less last week. Contrary to what most people believe higher income earners have been hardest hit by the Torys from a tax take perspective. Lower income households have been stuffed by the mismanagement of the country leading to the cost of living crisis.
An interesting read in the Guardian yesterday
Not sure why wanting to hang onto your hard earned cash is selfish….
Guilty as charged - and a reason not to vote Conservative. How much did Truss cost you? Or the B word? I loathe their ideology but when it comes down to it, and I used to tell one of their candidates who I worked with this on an almost daily basis.
" I cannot afford a Conservative vote".
Or the old one - Conservative voters are rich or stupid. Check your bank statements. Only as you say, the rich window is shifted. You now have to be very, very rich.
It's impressive that Tories have always made the argument about more money in your pocket with tax cuts whilst driving wages down.
The argument should be about being paid a better wage and living costs/standards.
The tax debate is disingenuous because it's so horrendously complex.
Neoliberal arguments are nearly all bogus. Virtually every single one can be taken apart by the fact of why everything is such a mess today.
The country needs a massive cash injection - on the right things that serve the majority. There are so many things to absorb the extra money there would be limited inflation and that could be mitigated with wealth taxes.
The multiplier effect would create decent growth too.
What happens if you put yourself down as a tory wot-not and get given some of those leaflets to distribute? God forbid they end up in the recycling bin.
It tells you exactly where both parties are at the moment that labour has a big team of willing volunteers out delivering material and canvassing, but the Tories election bumph is being delivered by agency workers (no doubt on minimum wage).
Far be it from me to cast aspertions on the motivation and dedication of someone on minimum wage delivering leaflets for the Tory party in the pouring rain, up and down some bloody steep hills but.... you know... it might be worth checking the local recycling bins 😉
Labour refuses to rule out killing the firstborn male child in every family
Bit of a sexist policy in this day and age, i blame Starmer!
Just had a Lib Dem bloke round - decided to talk to him TBH. Locally it's Conservatives or Lib Dem, very close - Lib Dem are the ones that do alot for our ward, but I said to him you are going to have to pursuade the 'retired' folk to change their mind. He said he was coming across alot of 80 plus year old men that are still conservative - reasonably comfortable area, especially the retired lot. Although William Wragg has been a bad lad for the Conservatives locally, so who knows.
The only thing with Lib Dem locally is they are bloody spamming us with post and flyers, which hisses me off as it goes in the recycling. The labour candidate is a local and actully does some good work, but, tatically you've got to go Lib Dem to get Conservative out of our ward.
"Labour fails to rule out xxxx tax rise”
The problem with taxation is that tax cuts are so incredibly popular!
You only need to ask Kwasi Kwarteng.
Or maybe not.
theotherjonv
Full MemberI forgot that – I suppose yes, technically it was a hung parliament. But there wasn’t a coalition and no-one went into Gov with them as is normally the outcome, they had a confidence and supply agreement with the DUP (which they ‘paid for’ IIRC by extra funding into NI)
Yep, a strange quirk of the system that you can buy yourself allies using a billion quid of taxpayer's money (and then declare the country broke)
Course, the whole fiasco was only possible because of FPTP, the DUP had only .9% of the vote, meaning they got one seat for every 29000 voters they had. Meanwhile the Lib Dems got onlu 12 seats with 7.4% of the vote, or 1 seat per 197655 votes. (and of course the tories got 317 seats with 42.3% of the vote while Labour got only 262 with 40% of the vote- the equivalent of one seat per 13800 people that voted for them over Labour).
“alanl’s name goes on “the list”.”
Pathetic.
Didnt you read this bit:
'These are not my views, but certainly the views of others, who should not be dismissed as extremists,’
So no one can mention immigration without ‘going on the list’?
What list is that then?
Don’t you think some people have genuine concerns, rather than bigoted/racist views?
Just saying what you said above is totally stupid, and you really know nothing about me at all, so why say such a pathetic comment?
What list is that then?
The list of grumpy people who take tongue-in-cheek comments a bit too seriously?
Yes, seems it was really funny. I cant stop laughing.
Just had a Lib Dem bloke round
Same here. First time I've known a candidate ring the bell. Mind you I've only lived here 43 years. Very nice chap, didn't have two heads, had a good chat about the local hospital falling down and sewage.
I will be voting LibDem for two reasons.
- They have an odds on chance of taking the seat (back) off the Tories.
- I'm a LibDem voter.
alanl
Free Member
Watching that video above, they do have some valid points. Immigration, mention that you want to limit immigration, and you are branded a racist.
The problem is that most that want to "limit immigration" are on the spectrum from having none to "send them all back"... and by send them all back they really do mean anyone and everyone, however many generations their family has been here. Most aren't daft enough to say it to a journalist but they fundamentally are, well, racist. That's why when these types have their social media investigated for whatever reason there are always the usual skeletons dug up... at latest count I give you 16 EX Reform candidates for a start.
The sexual education of children too, people dont like being told there are 50 genders, and dont like it even more that their children are being taught that (are they? I dont know).
That's the problem, people up in arms about issues they don't even know are real or not.
Farage is standing up for those people , when the mainstream politicians just ignore their concerns.
He has no solutions, just many things he is against. That's a dead easy line to take in life as he never needs to be involved in forming actual solutions. That involves hard work and Farage as an MEP has proven he's just not into that kind of grafting.
Thats why the fringe parties are getting votes, the main ones dont want to say anything that may cause some debate.
No "debate" on immigration, wokeness, gender etc? It's bloody endless!! All the oxygen wasted on that could go into actual solutions to real problems and by debate I really mean arguments as that's all some people want, perpetual reasons to be angry.
That they have no other policies is lost to many/most people, all they hear is soundbites that they care about the people, it clearly isnt enough, but the main parties are their own worst enemies in being so tightly controlled, with little chance to express anything other than basic non controversial views.
"Fringe" voters literally have their own newspapers and even TV channels hosted by far right MP's. They will never have enough... enough Brexit, enough stopping the boats, enough anti wokeness. It's a beast that can't be satiated.
So another totally non racist Reform candidate is hit by the foreign made dildo of doom.
In remarks first reported by the Times, external, Mr StClair-Armstrong wrote on a website: “I could weep now, every time I pick up a British newspaper and read the latest about the state of the UK. No doubt, Enoch Powell would be doing the same if he was alive. My solution … vote BNP!
Imagine being sacked from reform for being a wrong'un...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cw880334dgyo
He has no solutions, just many things he is against.
The media are complicit in this though. Farage will be lead on the telly as he's had milkshake thrown at him, and he's always treated as if he's the head of some insurgent party despite being in mainstream European and UK politics for a couple of decades at least. But he's never interviewed as if he's just another party candidate and asked "what's you plan for reducing child poverty" or "Tell me the Reform manifesto pledge on reviewing and reforming NHS dentistry".
He gets a complete pass on the sorts of things that all other mainstream politicians are grilled endlessly on, and that forms the opinion of the man in the public eye, he's allowed the space to say his prepared words on the subjects he wants to talk about and isn't troubled by 'the mundane'
Complete failure by the 5th estate, who've essentially decided what he's for and use him solely in that space for a narrative.
Will Reform’s agenda include a commitment to free beer?
Free as in speech or fr - oh, never mind.
I'm more interested where he gets a British newspaper from. Given the ownership of our press.
I'll caveat that with "newspaper" he'd "read".
Complete failure by the 5th estate, who’ve essentially decided what he’s for and use him solely in that space for a narrative.
This is the problem, not his candidacy in our democracy.
There is no climate crisis
This is why we don't deserve nice things, like the Earth.
Given the parlous state of the economy and our shaky energy security this country needs a Labour government like a hole in the head.
You're saying letting the Tories continue to be in charge is going to help?
This is the cliched definition of insanity, doing it again and again, expecting a different result.
There is no climate crisis, worsening or otherwise,
The overwhelming global scientific consensus disagrees, but I'd be interested in a credible source for your claim.
There is no climate crisis
You are Donald Trump and I claim my tins of false tan and industrial strength hairspray 😃
There is no climate crisis, worsening or otherwise,
Excellent news! Once you've published your paper, a Nobel prize awaits.
and even if there were, Britain’s essential use of oil and gas would have no effect on it.
81% of UK oil production is exported.
There is no climate crisis
I really think this forum needs a specific policy of banning people who regurgitate this nonsense. I'm generally an advocate of people being able to say what the hell they like on here, and this place is much more strict than many other forums, but I have no idea why climate change denial is permitted. 🤷♂️
If the 2 main parties are tied then it is a hung parliament and it comes down to who can make a coalition to command a majority.
I think you can have a minority government but that wont happen if one party can create a majority with other parties
There is no climate crisis
No, you don't get to simply ignore a shedload of science (much of which I understand) and spread damaging bullshit like this just because you want to feel special. Do one.
Yeah I think Frank Sinatra raises a different point, which is a good one
Don't know the answer but perhaps the incumbent remains as opposition? However they could easily lose a seat in a by-election, so then it must change
If the 2 main parties are tied then it is a hung parliament and it comes down to who can make a coalition to command a majority.
That is not what I was asking. I want to know what happens to the opposition if there is a tie between second and third place in the polls.
What happens if the two biggest opposition parties tie with an equal number of seats? Who is the official opposition?
I think this needs to be settled by a political episode of Gladiators, beamed out live to the nation on prime time Saturday night telly.
Kemi Badanoch and Ed Vaisey clad in Lycra, slugging it out with giant cotton buds
I think this needs to be settled by a political episode of Gladiators, beamed out live to the nation on prime time Saturday night telly
Fair
That is not what I was asking. I want to know what happens to the opposition if there is a tie between second and third place in the polls
Duopposition
in case of a tie , I think the speaker actually work out a deal with the 2 parties to get to ask an equal number of questions and/ or swap each week
Must admit would absolutely love to see the lib dems as the opposition, but its still a very faint hope at the moment, I still think that enough wavering Tories will switch to them at the last minute to avoid a complete wipeout (Im still hoping tho)
in case of a tie , I think the speaker actually work out a deal with the 2 parties to get to ask an equal number of questions and/ or swap each week
I think the big question is what the shadow cabinet should look like and which individual would be named leader of the opposition.
Although the 'negotiations' on how to split the shadow minister jobs would be the definition of bald men fighting over a comb.
well, unless @grimep is spectacularly stupid, which I'm guessing he's not, he's just trolling, in which case, I guess I'll just scroll back up and hit that report button, and let the mods deal with it in the usual way they deal with trolls.
Nickc +1
Sorry misread the question on the opposition.
Presumably they take it in turns to ask the questions
nickc
Full Member
He has no solutions, just many things he is against.
The media are complicit in this though.
I completely agree, he's almost treated as a pundit, not a politician, which of course is absolutely mad and lets him get away with all manner of sins.
I think the big question is what the shadow cabinet should look like
You are presuming there are sufficient MPs to form a Shadow Cabinet 😉 . As it happens, I suspect the Conservatives will take approx 125 seats and do better than the polls are suggesting. I imagine Neil Kinnock feels the same. I also think Reform will win a seat somewhere on the East coast.
Most trolls are just sad I think.
As Farage is set to launch his dog whistle to racist pensioners ‘contract’ Rachael Reeves is advocating … *whisper it* … closer ties with the EU
https://Twitter.com/georgewparker/status/1802433173122625857?s=46&t=1lK7Dw1b6RqGJyvufO-trQ
As Farage is set to launch his ‘contract’ Rachael Reeves is advocating … *whisper it* … closer ties with the EU
Splitter
So Reform is unveiling it's manifesto today, they are calling it a "contract" I believe.
Knowing they don't have to enact any of it and being utter charlatans ... It'll be interesting. Some "ok" announcements mixed in with some batshit stuff at a guess?
You are presuming there are sufficient MPs to form a Shadow Cabinet 😉 .
It does create the problem of a lack of talent through, you can't form a credible opposition without a decent/popular leader and at least a handful of deputies. And those sorts of Tories are probably going to be staying out of politics for at least an election cycle or two (why be an MP when you could be earning money in the city).
As it happens, I suspect the Conservatives will take approx 125 seats and do better than the polls are suggesting.
This +1
I think a lot of people will be happy to see the back of the Tory's , but I'm not convinced they'll necessarily turn out to make it happen.
Reform will never be in power so it kind of doesnt matter, but their magic money tree plan is to suspend interest payments on UK debt/gilts, that would surely lead to the markets going nuts & inflation which would be Truss levels on steroids
Yet they wont be pushed on this
I completely agree, he’s almost treated as a pundit, not a politician, which of course is absolutely mad and lets him get away with all manner of sins.
He's spouting off about how as 'most popular 2nd party' (his words, not mine) he should be allowed at the main leaders debates. I'm very mixed, on one hand the oxygen of publicity vs on the other, sunlight as a disinfectant. I suspect their lack of real potential to enact any sort of policy opposition on most other things other than immigration would be quite quickly exposed. Unfortunately OTOH he's also a better, more charismatic speaker than both Sunak or SKS and some don't see beyond that.
Didn't he have the offer of a long interview with Nick Robinson, same as all the other parties, and then pull out? Why, and is it being rescheduled? (Rhetorical question, I know the reason given was that the interview was arranged with the Leader of Reform, then the leadership changed and no-one from the BBC contacted Farage to check he was still on for it. What was the real reason, I'm sure he could easily have made it if he'd wanted, even to a BBC North studio for a video interview)