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The Tories seem to be making quite a few pledges/promises – obviously keen to win over votes – but do they need to keep these pledges/promises if they get in?
They’ve been in for 14 years – why are they making all these pledges/promises to improve the everyday for the average person now instead of doing it throughout the past 14 years?
Well firstly the Tories know, like everyone else does, that they won't win the general election so whether they stick to their promises is a moot question.
Secondly the Tories argue that all the bad stuff of the last 14 years had nothing to do with them but now they have got everything on track, and it's been a very hard slog, things can finally improve.
The deficit which they inherited in 2010 was all the fault of Gordon Brown, and nothing to do with failed neoliberal policies causing the worst global crisis since the 1930s.
And then came the crisis caused by covid, I think the Chinese were responsible for that one.
Now pretty much everything has been sorted out and life is going to get great again. If it doesn't it will be the fault of the incoming Labour government, not the Tories, obviously.
but do they need to keep these pledges/promises if they get in?
Of course they don't. That's the wonder of representative politics. Politicians can say or promise what they like to get elected, and then ignore it and do something else once in power. I'm always amazed why this stupid system has so much support.
Brexit wasn't their fault either
I can't really see how it could be workable, but if there were some system to force policy pledges made in manifestos to be implemented it does feel appealing.
The Tories seem to be making quite a few pledges/promises – obviously keen to win over votes – but do they need to keep these pledges/promises if they get in?
The Tories find themselves in the position the Lib Dems or the Green Party are usually in. As they’ve absolutely no chance of being in government they can promise everyone the moon on a stick, knowing they’ll never have to deliver it
They’ve been in for 14 years – why are they making all these pledges/promises to improve the everyday for the average person now instead of doing it throughout the past 14 years?
That’s the question everyone’s asking, particularly about their sudden interest (after 14 years) in cracking down on tax avoidance
Brexit wasn’t their fault either
Those pesky remainers need to have a long hard look at themselves. /s
Of course they don’t. That’s the wonder of representative politics. Politicians can say or promise what they like to get elected, and then ignore it and do something else once in power. I’m always amazed why this stupid system has so much support
And James O'Brien's show theme yesterday was why do people think politicians are all the same.
He was trying to defend the notion that they're not.
I'm sorry James - that battle has been lost or we would have a huge difference between Labour and Conservative policy.
the bbc seems to be putting Lil Rishi's begging groveling face over every new promise.
Has anyone seen any other government ministers than Mel Stride since Rishi’s frightful D-Day faux pas?
He really must be spectacularly dim to not be wondering by now why he’s been the only person doing all the media rounds for 3 full days now
it's going to look bloody odd if it's just Stride and Lil' Ol' Rishi at the launch 😕
Cameron must have plenty of time on his hands as he's not defending a seat!
Did they (Reform)mention social care?
Actually I still wouldnt vote for them
The only other Tory Grandee I've seen in the news is that Jeremy Hunt donated £100,000 to his local Tory party for campaigning. Or in other words, hoping that 'investing' £100,000 is enough to retain his seat. Which tells everyone what the benefits of being an MP is worth to some folks...
Cameron must have plenty of time on his hands as he’s not defending a seat!
Apparently the main reason he was brought back was for his campaigning experience in the upcoming election. He appears to have borrowed Borises fridge to hide in. It must be a bit crowded in there this week
@rone, go to electoral calculus website and search for Bassetlaw to see latest prediction.
In summary, Labour to win with 16% majority and likelihood of winning is 86%.
There are also predictions by ward.
As for farmers in Newark constituency, the NFU are showing support for Labour and our candidate got a warm welcome at the Nottinghamshire county show. Whether this will translate into the farming community voting Labour is an open question.
I like the local knowledge @frankconway
Lower down the importance trough - have you been to Taylor's restaurant in Newark?
Has anyone seen any other government ministers
The Tory party chair (not sure I'd call him a grandee) after his constituency fix up row & then tantrum about being asked about it on sky news
https://twitter.com/Number10cat/status/1800087201822466305
has today tried to publish another letter saying Sunaks £2k tax figure definately wasnt made up by SPADS, that clearly says it was made up by SPADS
https://twitter.com/edwinhayward/status/1800460669923598781
whats remarkable is that the party chairman is just so spectacularly bad at this
I'm trying to think of a public figure who is as out of touch with the press and public as Rishi Sunak. The comparison that comes to mind is when Prince Edward met the press during his 'It's a Knockout fiasco (older forum members might remember).
Even Liz Truss would do a better job of campaigning and I can't believe I just wrote that. I can't imagine her making a cock up over the D-Day commemorations the way Sunak did. Conversley, she would exploited the photo opp for all it was worth, dropping in by parachute probably.
I'm still shellshocked by that Akehurst video. Apart from his dreadful politics, can you imagine having to go out and campaign for such a wreck of a man? How much talent and energy must have been by-passed to drop him into a safe seat? The Durham Labour Party must be thick with a miasma of rancour.
Our Tory candidate was out and about again in the town today as it's market day.
She's been there the past couple of weeks campaigning but from what I've seen is either chatting with the odd pensioner or standing looking out as everyone's ignoring her. The previous MP who's standing down was like the invisible man by comparison.
The good news is the the Electoral Calculus site suggests that what was previously a Tory stronghold, having previously been Johnson's constituency for years, is looking like a Lib Dem win. Happy days!
That electoral calculus site has Labour overturning geoffrey cox who in 2019 had a 60% vote share and 24,000 majority.
I am cynical.
The Tories are half an hour late for their own manifesto launch
They must be still scrawling it on the back of that fag packet
Rishi is sounding more like Will off the inbetweeners than ever today. Will off the inbetweeners would get more respect from me though
he's using his mrs again 😕 are they trying to bait Labour ?
The nicotine stained man frog has pulled out of his BBC interview at the last minute https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nigel-farage-hitler-pulls-out-bbc-interview-b2560440.html
dropping in by parachute probably
She's mad enough to do it sans parachute for the Lolz.
The Tories find themselves in the position the Lib Dems or the Green Party are usually in. As they’ve absolutely no chance of being in government they can promise everyone the moon on a stick, knowing they’ll never have to deliver it
Had one person today describe the the tory and lib dem manifestos as 'politics fan fiction'
Rishi is sounding more like Will off the inbetweeners than ever today. Will off the inbetweeners would get more respect from me though
I was thinking exactly that. He’s upped the ante on the patronising, condescending tone. I don’t know how it was possible but he’s even more irritating than usual, the pompous little shit
As a "Kind Yuppie", Electoral Calculus is predicting a 67% likelihood of Labour being the King's local MP. I wonder about the underlying algorithm for scoring locality since in the last election Labour and Lib Dems were 20% apiece with Conservatives having an outright majority of 54%. That's a big Yuppie swing to Labour if true.
And that interview was a road crash. Funny though. But it doesn't beat " NHS waiting lists are lower now than when they were higher", as opposed to when the policy of lowering the waiting list was announced. HIGNFY was good on catch up last night, but just missed the desertion on the beaches.
I love that the Independent link is '...nigel-farage-hitler,..' !
jam-bo, Reform are predicted to take 13.7% of the votes in cox's constituency; most of that switch will be from tories.
At the same time, Labour's predicted vote share is growing - everywhere - so I think it's entirely possible that cox will lose.
Let's compare notes on 5th July.
As a “Kind Yuppie”, Electoral Calculus is predicting a 67% likelihood of Labour being the King’s local MP. I wonder about the underlying algorithm for scoring locality since in the last election Labour and Lib Dems were 20% apiece with Conservatives having an outright majority of 54%.
Electoral Calculus does seem to have some surprising predictions compared with say Yougov and FT. Mostly some lovely outcomes but the odd not so good one (Reform to take Clacton). It will be interesting to see who gets closest to reality come election day.
Out of pure curiosity - Is there anyone on here still planning to vote Tory?
Or is there anyone on here who knows someone who is planning to vote Tory?
Just a quick reminder that 95% of the electorate don't take as much interest in politics as people on this thread. For them, it isn't even about empty manifesto pledges. Just 'impressions' that can be created. The £2094 figure will have stuck in lots of minds - despite being constantly debunked.
Is there anyone on here still planning to vote Tory?
I'm sort of tempted. This seat should be a fairly close contest between Conservative and SNP and I think the latter deserve a bloody good kick up the arse.
As one of those 3.8 million self-employed who were abandoned by him during covid, this just absolutely boiled my piss!
Now it suits him, we’re apparently the backbone of the economy. ****!!!
https://Twitter.com/sacha_lord/status/1800486698775986314?s=46&t=1lK7Dw1b6RqGJyvufO-trQ
Or is there anyone on here who knows someone who is planning to vote Tory?
Pretty sure I have family who may - they don't discuss politics.
Or is there anyone on here who knows someone who is planning to vote Tory?
I've a friend who was planning to vote Green, however he lives in the constituency covered by Clacton. He's now thinking of voting Tory as it seems the only possible way to potentially block Farage.
I’ve a friend who was planning to vote Green, however he lives in the constituency covered by Clacton. He’s now thinking of voting Tory as it seems the only possible way to potentially block Farage.
My voting nightmare come true
My enemies enemy is my friend or something like that
What a time to be alive
scotroutes
I’m sort of tempted. This seat should be a fairly close contest between Conservative and SNP and I think the latter deserve a bloody good kick up the arse.
Because you think the tories would be better, or just a protest vote? Your enemy's enemy is not your friend.
the pompous little shit
I can almost imagine your tone saying that and I've never even met you. 😁
pondo
Full Member
Or is there anyone on here who knows someone who is planning to vote Tory?
My sister and brother in law are atill voting Tory I think but mate/neighbour** down the road is switching to Reform. No Brexit or immigration policy will ever be "tough" enough for him.
** His views do my head in but I wont disavow him for "reasons".
his core vote are not buying what he's selling.
from the daily fail comments
yet the stealth tax remains with no change to the personal allowance, which if raised to twenty grand would take many people out of the income tax loop, plus giving the economy an instant cash boost with disposable income, STOP tinkering
He accuses Labour of making unfunded promises. How will he pay for it? Further cuts to public services? Even longer waiting lists? Even more potholes? Even more children living in poverty? Even more crumbling school buildings?
Too late Rishi. You already blew it. It's all lies in any case. He has zero credibility left. I've always voted Conservative. Will be voting Reform this time. The Conservatives need to be taught a hard lesson. They have not listened to their core constituency for many years and now they must pay the price.
obviously could be lib/lab/ruskie/reform bots voting these up 😉
Pretty sure I have family who may – they don’t discuss politics.
I have family who I know will vote Tory - It's mostly just tribal for some of them though.
@Speeder - call it a protest vote, and one that I think would fairly "safe" given the seat projections across the UK. It's more likely that I'll just abstain though.
@Klunk
Free Member
The Times mentioned the Tory advisors are really worried about that interview. He comes across as out of touch and financially isolated from reality... Hardly a surprise.
It'll totally grab the headlines from his manifesto tomorrow! Another bugger up. 👍😁
Possibly, but equally likely is that the “liar” tag will have stuck too
Not as much. It's just the psychology of people who can't or won't fit any more in their heads. Every time the £2094 is mentioned, many people half-listening will go "that's the figure Labour will put my tax up by" and possibly "oh, they're denying it, but they would do that".
It is a sort of Cummings-esque play - "I don't give a shit about the number, just pick one that sounds bad and get it out there as often as possible".
It is a measure of the disdain the Tories in particular hold the average voter in.
My dad will vote Tory unless he votes reform - he's in South Dorset so I've suggested he check out the independent candidate Rosie Frisby Morrell:
https://www.everyoneisgod.co.uk/
That might sway him!
EDIT: Link could potentially be NSFW
Yep, wasn't expecting that link! Lol
It is quite funny though.
Probably the party to vote for if you want a tactical w***.
(Sorry mods!)
Is there anyone on here still planning to vote Tory?
I know one but he's in a staunch Labour constituency so no problem. Also one elderly gent who is very nice but I suspect Tory.
Clacton - well if I lived there I would have to hold my nose and vote Tory. I don't see anyone else keeping Farage out.
How are we figuring Labour are going to fare (fair?) in Scotland?
Are the they likely to improve on 2019's showing? What's the feeling.
I've just had the chance to catch up with that Akehurst video. EFF me it's amateurish, isn't it.
One thought I have had about all these polling sites putting Labour in a massive lead, does anyone here know who owns or runs them? I do wonder if some of the websites giving near unbelievable leads for Labour might not be 100% legitimate, or their data being manipulated. I have no evidence to support this and would be happy to be proven wrong but there is so much deep fake, cloning and misinformation being produced by other states that I am inclined to not believe anything from a site that I have no knowledge of.
The presenting of predictions that make Labour look unbeatable could be a very simple way of deterring the politically uninterested occasional voter from placing a vote that may otherwise lead to Labour achieving those predicted seats.
Or some kind of short in a way that's similar to the Brexit scam.
regards clacton, its tough to know who to vote for on the antifarage front
https://twitter.com/MarwanData/status/1800514500304801843
"How are we figuring Labour are going to fare (fair?) in Scotland?
Are the they likely to improve on 2019’s showing? What’s the feeling"
Current polling - Labour going from 1 seat to 32. SNP going from 48 to 16.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/scotland.html
With FPTP there are huge numbers of Labour/SNP marginals in play. The SNP are on a cliffedge. A 2% switch from Labour to SNP (from current polling) could put SNP in single figures. SNP 7 Labour 41
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/scotland.html
I do wonder if some of the websites giving near unbelievable leads for Labour might not be 100% legitimate
They are the same polling companies we've had for years or decades, some of whom do polling for all sorts of things. YouGov for example are a PLC, have 1800 employees and £250m annual revenue. They had a Labour lead of 194 seats a week ago.
I do wonder if some of the websites giving near unbelievable leads for Labour might not be 100% legitimate, or their data being manipulated.
The polls have been pretty steady for months now, giving Labour a +/- 20 point lead. It's not something that's been conjured up in the last couple of days or weeks.
Conversley, she would exploited the photo opp for all it was worth, dropping in by parachute probably.
Hmmm, not so sure she would right now. Even for her it must register that there could be a high probability of it not opening.
I’ve a friend who was planning to vote Green, however he lives in the constituency covered by Clacton. He’s now thinking of voting Tory as it seems the only possible way to potentially block Farage.
That makes no sense imo. I can't see the Tories winning Clacton now that Farage is a candidate there.
So the winner will be either Farage or Labour. I can see the possibility of Farage splitting the right-wing vote sufficiently down the middle to allow Labour to win.
Your friend in Clacton should vote Labour if he wants to stop Farage.
So has Sunak managed to launch his manifesto without any PR disasters today then? No rain, Titanic, D-Day veterans or boats full of Lib Dem candidates? He'll be relieved.
How ironic that voting Tory could end up being the tactical vote to keep Farage out!
How ironic that voting Tory could end up being the tactical vote to keep Farage out!
Perhaps though it is better to let him win a seat. Its easy to whip up hate as one of the people, as an outsider, as bloke with a pint. Stick him in Parliament though and, perhaps, you are able to set him up to publicly fail. Perhaps.
How ironic that voting Tory could end up being the tactical vote to keep Farage out!
I believe that the correct political term is holding your nose voting.
The French famously had to it in the presidential election of 2002 when Chirac was facing a far-right challenge from Le Penn. In the end Chirac received 82% of the vote.
Sadly I don't think that in the next French presidential election the result will be that far apart.
Perhaps though it is better to let him win a seat. Its easy to whip up hate as one of the people, as an outsider, as bloke with a pint. Stick him in Parliament though and, perhaps, you are able to set him up to publicly fail. Perhaps.
That's what they said about Adolf Hitler!
Trouble is that Farage is a great speaker - I'm not so sure of his credentials as a mass debater but he's damn good at bluster and never shutting the **** up. It something people warm to for some reason. I can't see him doing much constituency work or attending the commons much but you can guarantee he'll be putting a shift in when it comes to question time.
I’m not so sure of his credentials as a mass debater
Oh he is definitely a devotee of onanism
Look at the face of the guy behind Nige he knows this is campaign gold.
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It’s mostly just tribal for some of them though.
I have relatives who say that Starmer is the right person to be PM, think the country needs Labour to win…. but will still vote Conservative as they’d rather “one of their own side” represented them.