MegaSack DRAW - This year's winner is user - rgwb
We will be in touch
Shits deserting the sinking rat.
LBC host Ian Dale just pulled out as Conservative candidate for Tunbridge Wells, after footage emerged of him saying his much he hated the place………..
Panic candidate selection is going to mean lots of this…….
173 Workers Party candidates. Their 10 point plan sounds pretty good
https://workerspartybritain.org/ten-point-programme/
Getting past George Galloway may be a problem though.
this surprise election certainly caught someone off guard
Mostly conservatives, by the looks of it... I mean I know it was called unexpectedly early, but it had to be this year realistically, and given we are already in Q2 you'd think all parties would be well into the process of gearing up by now, even if just quietly behind the scenes.
Workers Party - 173 (+4)
I find this worrying. Galloway is fully exploiting the situation and the vacuum on the Left. And he's obviously not short of a bob or two.
After the general election, and hopefully a huge Labour majority, the Left need to get their act together and mount an effective fight in the interest of both ordinary working people and global justice.
And hopefully sideline mouthy narcissists like Galloway.
I saw one opinion poll recently put the Workers Party on 1%. I struggle to believe that they can enjoy that level of support but if true it shows the need to offer a credible alternative.
I suspect that Gaza and the Muslim vote is the issue. I know plenty of Muslims who ignore Galloway's failings because he is the only one publicly making the correct noises on the telly when it comes to Israel's ongoing genocide. Despite the fact that he does **** all else. He doesn't even speak at national rallies. Although to be fair I think that he has been banned by the Palestine Solidarity Campaign!
the Tories still nearly 200 short!
There are going to be a lot of bad, panicked selections there. Problem they’ve got is (as I understand it) it’s not just seats they’ve got a snowball’s chance in, and some of them are whatever passes for a safe seat these days.
... actually, I take it back about unrepeatable tricks - Galloway may turn out to be another
This is lazy stereotyping. Whilst the really keen ones did tick that box there was a large number who supported brexit for a variety of reasons. Ranging from people of Asian descent who felt the immigration policies favoured Europeans over their families
meh, not sure any person of asian descent would get a different message from Nige's poster
this surprise election certainly caught someone off guard
I think we are just witnessing an incompetent, zombie government bringing those "virtues" to an election campaign.
Has Starmer said or done anything to make you believe he’ll enact those changes once he has the keys to number 10?
Starmer is merely the empty vessel - he hasn't got one single big idea, he was selected 8 years ago as he's a vacuum, its those behind his push, mandlesons goon squad amongst others who we've got to worry about, and if you think any changes will be for the betterment of society then I have a bridge to sell you
At what cost? Can't help feeling that she was going to stand down, someone leaked the news so she couldn't announce on her terms, she got the hump, subsequent fight weakens Labour and hands the Tories an attack line.
How long will she serve for then before standing down; she'll be 75 at the end of the next parliament?
theotherjonv
Full Member
At what cost? Can’t help feeling that she was going to stand down, someone leaked the news so she couldn’t announce on her terms, she got the hump, subsequent fight weakens Labour and hands the Tories an attack line.How long will she serve for then before standing down; she’ll be 75 at the end of the next parliament?
I agree. They've now done the inevitable though which will effectively kill the story as a Tory attack line. If it ever was.
She should have been allowed to stand if she wished right from the start but this is the best outcome from where we are now.
173 Workers Party candidates. Their 10 point plan sounds pretty good
High quality laundrettes for women. That is so woke.
At what cost?
A completely unnecessary public row in which even right-wingers ended up queuing up to support Diane Abbott, and which over the period of a couple of hours Starmer was forced into another yet another U-turn.
That plus several days of total unnecessary distraction appears to have been the price that Starmer paid for looking tough on the left.
He should have focused on just purging the unknowns rather than the first black female MP. I guess that he got carried away with his success in purging the former leader of the Labour Party. He was probably starting to believe that his powers were limitless.
Funny that Starmer is wanting to beat the tories and he can’t even beat a tired old leftie who is universally derided as being a bit thick. That’s the tories attack lines written for them. Nice job!
Yeah, as always, negativity against Starmer, rather than looking at this whole weird scenario, where Abbott was brought back in to the Labour Party, and then made a statement to people regarding not being allowed to stand, Starmer has said nothing on this bar that it hasn't even been decided yet, if he didn't want Abbott to stand then why allow her back into the party before the selections?
A completely unnecessary public row in which even right-wingers ended up queuing up to support Diane Abbott, and which over the period of a couple of hours Starmer was forced into another yet another U-turn.
Created by who, and to whose benefit is the point of my question? And then if not fuelled, not exactly quelled by DA either.
I mean; she could have said "I'm very disappointed that people are being briefed that I'm being banned from standing, but it's an irrelevance really because I'd already taken the decision that at 70 and after 37 years as an MP, it's the right time for me to stand down"
It's all being proposed as a purge of the left but there is another entirely feasible explanation.
Created by who, and to whose benefit is the point of my question?
Well it was created by Starmer and his advisors, obviously. What Starmer said this afternoon he could have said several days ago, he is after all responsible for what he says, but he chose not to.
In fact the whole issue could have been resolved 5 months ago. Starmer deliberately strung it out because firstly he hoped the general election would preemptive the conclusion, as he lied and said that the disciplinary procedure was ongoing.
And then he hoped that a public row with the left would endear him to the likes of Daily Telegraph readers.
It all went tits up for Starmer when the right-wing saw the damage that attacking the Britian's first black female MP was doing and they started to line up behind her.
The only person to blame for this mess is Starmer. To blame the intended victim is ludicrous.
Any chance all the Starmer thread people could shut the **** up for a day or two and let other people contribute to this thread? Crowding any and all news and comment out with the same old shit… become self aware and take a ****ing break.
I didn't realise we had a one in one out policy for discussion.
I can only speak for myself, you understand, but I'm sick to death of the same opposing points being endlessly regurgitated.
I'm sure the feeling isn't really going to sink in until the Labour manifesto gets published. Anyone know when that will be? At the moment I feel like I'm waiting on medical test results: I know there's definitely something badly wrong, but I don't really know how badly wrong it is yet.
Any chance all the Starmer thread people could shut the * up for a day or two and let other people contribute to this thread? Crowding any and all news and comment out with the same old shit… become self aware and take a * break.
LOL! Someone isn't happy about this afternoon's developments! 😊
Go on Kelvin, you crack on - Starmer has finally pulled the plug on the story which has been dominating the general election campaign for the last few days, it's dead and buried now, despite the fact some still want to apportion blame, so you can talk about whatever you want 💡
Well it was created by Starmer and his advisors, obviously.
Not obvious from the version of events i heard. We covered this pages ago, go back and look at contemporaneous posts on p26 to about 31. Try to ignore yours and read other versions.
The version i heard
- investigation ended 6 months ago.
- ordered to complete training course which was done in Feb
- conditions of readmittance were still in discussion; in the version I heard she was going to have the chance to step down and have all manner of platitudes passed her way including potentially seat in Lords. And then.... 'sources close to' DA then said she was being barred from standing, stuff was leaked, etc. As I say - by who and who has benefitted?
In fact the whole issue could have been resolved 5 months ago. Starmer deliberately strung it out because firstly he hoped the general election would preemptive the conclusion, as he lied and said that the disciplinary procedure was ongoing.
First bit, maybe - if not 5 months ago then certainly sooner, although as per above in the version i heard discussions were ongoing still I agree no reason why they had to take 3 months after the course was done.
Did he lie - well, as I said before, in my experience the disciplinary process ends with the sanction being finalised. So no, not outright although not exactly totally transparent.
OTOH - deliberately strung it out? How long was he going to given that no-one, not even Rishi apparently, knew the election was going to be called. was he going to string out until October? Christmas?
The only person to blame for this mess is Starmer. To blame the intended victim is ludicrous.
Not blaming the victim, just saying she hasn't acted to minimise the damage caused by persons who would benefit. You say it was the labour right, I don't necessarily agree when you look at who benefits.
I do agree that once the row happened he'd have been far better acting on it, almost irrespective of what the action was.
In the end, different versions and interpretations of the same event.
[edit - and i agree, it's now fish wrappers, let's move on]
BREAKING: Iain Dale tells LBC he has now abandoned his bid to become the Conservative candidate for Tunbridge Wells, after this clip of him telling listeners he 'never liked the place’ and ‘would happily live somewhere else’ was revealed
Starmer has finally pulled the plug on the story
Definitely not the end of it. Every day from now until July 4th all we will here from Sunak and the tories is that Starmer was bullied into a u-turn by Diane Abbott and Jeremy Corbyn and that if he becomes PM the labour left will be the hidden hand behind his premiership. I can't think of a more spectacular clusterf*** to be honest. This is his Gordon Brown bigot-gate moment.
[edit – and i agree, it’s now fish wrappers, let’s move on]
Don't be intimidated into not discussing an issue which has dominated the election campaign all week.
Although I agree that there isn't anything left to discuss thanks to Starmer finally seeing sense.
This is the current headline now:
Diane Abbott free to stand for Labour in election, says Starmer
It could have very easily have been the headline a week ago and we would have been spared all this nonsense. I mean in the media, not just here.
Every day from now until July 4th all we will here from Sunak and the tories is that Starmer was bullied into a u-turn by Diane Abbott and Jeremy Corbyn and that if he becomes PM the labour left will be the hidden hand behind his premiership.
Good point, I hadn't thought of that - the Tories will exploit it to their advantage claiming that he is weak - of course they will!
How ironic that what was obviously designed to show how tough Starmer is when dealing with the Left should so spectacularly backfire.
Embarrassing for Starmer, sure,
Problematic with some labour voters, probably
Will it change anything, not a pip
A lot of focus on one candidate, they only need to select 17? more assuming Abbot stands
Meanwhile the Tories need to find 190 in 6 days, even as more candidates & sitting MPs are dropping out by the day (3 today by my count)
There was a question whether Reform would actually stand in every seat, they currently have more candidates in place than the Tories
If the Tories fail to fill those slots it's going to look very bad for Sunak
No plan survives contact with the enemy, particularly if the enemy is a large proportion of the UK population.
https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1796565060892147762
It’s an article of faith in what we’ll term another party that they have to put candidates up in every seat, no matter how futile, as a) it means they can claim to be a national party, b) they feel everyone should have the option to vote for them and c) there’s something about total vote share and central funding, as limited as that is. If the Tories fail to achieve that, especially in what is nominally a ‘safe’ seat…
Meanwhile the Tories need to find 190 in 6 days, even as more candidates & sitting MPs are dropping out by the day (3 today by my count
And given the standard of the 2019 intake, I think it’s safe to assume this next lot will be even worse!
You hear that? That’s the sound of the mud underneath the bottom of the barrel being scraped
On the Diane Abbott / Keir Starmer story, I wonder who the leaker was, or if it was even a leak.
If I was a Tory agent provocateur I might have been tempted to say KS was blocking DA just to see if I could cause trouble.
Worst that happens is nothing much happens, but possibly you get to set Labour’s left and right against each other, and maybe you even get a chance to have Labour’s left torpedo Labour’s chances in July.
And you know KS will act in a proper manner, distancing himself from the proceedings, which loads of people will see as pretending he wasn’t behind something nasty.
There was no benefit to KS’s people leaking, or Labour’s right, or Labour’s left so far as I can tell. So I wonder, who was the anonymous leaker?
martinhutch
Full Member
No plan survives contact with the enemy, particularly if the enemy is a large proportion of the UK population.https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1796565060892147762/blockquote >
Oh dear, thats inconvenient! LolIt's highly likely Starmer will meet a similar situation during the election but I'm hoping he is better prepared that the constantly passive aggressive Sunak.
this position about the government having infinite money if only it could believe hard enough is your hobby horse, isn’t it?
solutions can’t possibly exist because according to your false logic there is only one pot of money that has ever been swilling around since the gold standard
I think I’ve mentioned it many many times...Firstly...Seventh...
Quod Borat demonstrandum, Rodders.
… and when you get past [George Galloway] you’ve got deputy leader Chris Williamson. What a delightful bunch
Galloway is simply a self-interested person with zero scruples, but Williamson is bonkers. It is totally wild that self-proclaimed leftists would associate with a man who takes money from the Iranian state to present TV shows on a channel that spreads anti-Semitic propaganda and pushes Iranian government talking points. Any reasonable person should ostracise him, not follow him!
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Press_TV
Quod Borat demonstrandum, Rodders.
Yeah well there's never a counter-argument is there.
Labour's GB energy (PFI) launch has gone well!
Private jets on the way to Scotland to a green energy launch. Misdirected URLs. Terrible posters.
I think the Tory party are exerting way too much influence these days.
Yeah well there’s never a counter-argument is there.
I'm certainly not arguing with you about your pet subject. You have more practice and time than I do. I am saying when you've got a pet subject that is the lens through which you see just about everything, like you do, you're not exactly a typical voter. The fact that a mainstream party hasn't won you personally over is no surprise and you can't really draw any conclusions about their electability on that basis.
It is totally wild that self-proclaimed leftists would associate with a man who takes money from the Iranian state to present TV shows on a channel that spreads anti-Semitic propaganda and pushes Iranian government talking points.
What is a "self-proclaimed leftist" as opposed to your ordinary run-of-the-mill leftist, in your hyperbole which looks as if has been lifted straight out of the Daily Mail?
Don't most leftists admit to being leftists then?
And should I call myself a self-proclaimed leftist - what is the correct protocol?
Not aimed at any one person here, instead at "most of us", including me.
We are endlessly tying ourselves in knots over the 10% we passionately disagree about whilst ignoring the core 90% we do.
The 10% might seem like the war but in fact it's just the battle.
Apparently Labour now have a candidate in every seat theyre contesting (assuming Abbot stands), what happens if the Tories dont get that 190 odd they still need in the 6 days? some are ones they have decent majorities in!
polls over the next few days will be interesting, so far nothing much has changed in the polls
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1796543880545894436
now the election has been called and the tone set things may start tightening as it filters through to voters, but Im not convinced the Tories have done anything to shift the dial vs labour, the lib dems or reform -and its the latter they are focusing on with their policies- theyve never really had competition from the right before- what if reform (or labour + LDs) grow their vote over the next few weeks? what happens if people vote tactically to unseat them?
IF they stay the same the Tory wipeout is going to be nuts, theyve never dipped below 30% at a GE in the last 100 years , thats what they got when they lost in 1997 on 165 seats, but there was no Reform then, if they end up on 20%, they could end up with a handful (<50) of MPs. What if they fail to get a candidate for all the seats?
I dont think anyone knows what that will actually look like- would a new party form around them?- or even which MPs would escape the cull, half!! the Tories 50 safest (biggest majority) seats are predicted to fall on current polling, almost all to the Lib Dems.
Of course the polls could well tighten and their defeat might just be bad but not catastrophic- even that would be interesting- Cameron changed the party a lot the last time round.
Very few people own newsapers or TV stations, you need to listen to what they say irrespective of the platform. Every time there's a flare-up in the ME you get one on here being a little embassador for apartheid but has nothing to do with mtb. We should be flattered that STW is taken so seriously.
Labour promise to increase tax on domestic oil and gas production.
Because unaffordable energy makes poorer people happier, somehow. And making our domestic industry less competitive is also a good thing, somehow.
sorry just realised I posted the wrong graph up there
meant it to be this one
Labour promise to increase tax on domestic oil and gas production
British Gas profits of £750m ; thoughts and prayers
Labour promise to increase tax on domestic oil and gas production.
Because unaffordable energy makes poorer people happier, somehow. And making our domestic industry less competitive is also a good thing, somehow.
you were moaning 4 hours ago about no policy discussions, now you're moaning about the policies. No pleasing you is there!!
Tax is on production. Gov has ability to set / cap pricing so that companies can't just pass on the cost in their prices. Seems like a sensible idea both from a tax raising and green PoV - what would you suggest instead?
@kelvin You’d have to hope that they’ve plans to offer people alternatives to private cars (including investment in public transport and active travel) for urban journeys at least, to reduce demand for fossil fuels…
@kimbers If they don’t have a candidate in a ‘safe’ seat then they lose it. As I said above, at least one other party puts massive prestige on standing a candidate in every seat, even when it’s futile.
If they don’t have a candidate in a ‘safe’ seat then they lose it
I think it's more about the front pages about the Tory campaign if Sunak can't find enough candidates - will increase chances of other MPs just giving up
The Tory MP that dropped out today-Aaron Bell was tweeting that he was out campaigning until yesterday, what did he encounter on the doorstep that he's suddenly decided?
but Im not convinced the Tories have done anything to shift the dial vs labour, the lib dems or reform
No but what you might have reasonably expected to have happened, when the general election campaign kicked off, was for previously undecided Tory voters to start telling pollsters that they would be voting Tory on July 4th, that would be a typical pattern.
And no it hasn't even begun to happen and we are now in the second week of a six week general election campaign. The Tories really are in dire straits. It seems to be panning out as their worst possible scenario.
theyve never dipped below 30% at a GE in the last 100 years
In the last 200 years!......the Tories have never had less than 30% of the vote in any general election in their entire history!
Remember the UK Conservative Party is currently the most successful political party anywhere in the world. The significance of what looks might possibly happen on July 4th cannot be overstated imo.
I will still be very surprised if they get less than 30% on July 4th but their time is running out and not one single opinion poll since the first week of October last year has put them on 30% or over. Not even pollsters such as Opinium which are more favourable to the Tories than other pollsters.
Keir Starmer might well turn out to be a disappointment, and imo he definitely will be, but the total collapse of the Tory Party will be a price well worth paying imo.
It will herald a new chapter in British political history. Hopefully.
1 MRP out tonight
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1796642867584070036?t=vV54IRP0p56kkTAD-u8kpA&s=19
Labour having a ~300 seat majority , with tories around 70 and Sunak only just keeping his seat by a whisker
The polls will probably tighten, probably
(edited, it was 1 poll)
Keir Starmer might well turn out to be a disappointment, and imo he definitely will be, but the total collapse of the Tory Party will be a price well worth paying imo.
My father, a distinguished political scientist in his day (used to do what is now the John Curtice role), used to say that folk who entered office with high expectations tended to be seen as failures, whereas those who entered as the best of a bad bunch tended to do well. Not a hard and fast rule of course.
I get what you're saying, but I'd argue that Sunak could be classed as the best of a bad bunch, and he's been an utter ****ing joke as a PM!
The polls will probably tighten, probably
Yet, they’re not. I believe the more people see of Lil Rishi the less they’ll like him, because he’s an arrogant, obnoxious, entitled little shit, who can’t remotely connect with normal people.
This election campaign could very easily take a Theresa May trajectory for him
But… you know… Diane Abbot 🙄
used to say that folk who entered office with high expectations tended to be seen as failures, whereas those who entered as the best of a bad bunch tended to do well. Not a hard and fast rule of course.
Interesting. Obviously I don't know the era your father's observations were based on but I strongly support the theory, certainly with regards to party leaders and prime ministers, that all political careers end in failure.
You would struggle to think of a postwar example where the career of a prime minister didn't end in failure. Perhaps the only obvious example is Tony Blair, but he was also probably the prime minister with the highest expectations of anyone when he came to office.
I think we've probably flogged the Abbot horse to death now!
I'm not convinced that it's the none issue which your perceive though. I would have tactically voted Labour as my constituency is a target seat (I'm now a Green, was Labour historically)....I'll not be voting for them though. Elphicke, Abbot, that shithead Akehurst, Thatcher economics from Reeves, I hate Streeting more than a sizeable amount of Tories.....bloke can't wait to start privatising the NHS.....I'll be voting Green. Lot's of people 'on the left' that I chat to are of a similar opinion. Starmer will still win, so no biggie I don't suppose if you're a centre right labour supporter.
This election campaign could very easily take a Theresa May trajectory for him
May dropped a few points along the way, but even though she was dire, she never dropped below 40%, Sunak has been below 20 on a couple!
If we're still seeing polls like this in a couple of weeks his MPs & canvassers etc are just going to give it up, and they'll start the leadership calls early, I almost feel sorry for him
I have the increasing sensation that the Tories might actually have passed the tipping point and are now in an inescapable free fall.
There was a period where I thought they might survive on account of being too big to collapse, or because of complacency on the part of (labour) voters.
But now I feel a sense of morbid fascination at the prospect of them being utterly wiped out, and I can't be the only one. I suspect people might be even more motivated to vote with the prospect of their annihilation so tantalisingly close, and increasingly so
I actually think a sub 30 % share looks very possible, maybe 25-27%. Perhaps that is slightly optimistic, maybe 28
It will herald a new chapter in British political history. Hopefully.
Very much this.
I was recently reading about Atlee's achievements as PM, the list is frankly staggering in comparison to what has happened in the last 14 years, let alone individual PM's within that period
I remain optimistic that it wasn't a one off
I actually think a sub 30 % share looks very possible, maybe 25-27%. Perhaps that is slightly optimistic, maybe 28
I think low 20s is very possible if the tories start infighting over the state of the polls
It's different now because I don't think the tories have ever faced opposition on the right the way they are with reform
Although at that point people might not bother voting Labour because they've got it in the bsg
I was recently reading about Atlee’s achievements as PM, the list is frankly staggering in comparison to what has happened in the last 14 years
IMO Harold Wilson's achievements were impressive, and he did it in very short periods of time and with tiny barely workable majorities.
What people on LinkedIn seem to be most concerned about is VAT on private schools. That's what people online using their real name, within their network of professional connections including customers and colleagues, are willing to debate. Or at least they feel it's a topic they can discuss without it turning into a pile-on that ruins their reputation.
It’s different now because I don’t think the tories have ever faced opposition on the right the way they are with reform
Exactly this. Even when the Tories were a social democratic party pre-thatcher they never faced a serious threat from the right.
Without Reform UK the Tories would do badly, even perhaps very badly, but not quite as badly as they probably will.
They only have themselves to blame though. They decided to take on Reform UK and tried to beat them at their own game with small boats bollocks, petty racism, etc. They were never going to win trying to make Reform UK's agenda mainstream politics.
If someone convinces me that immigration, asylum seekers, etc, is a really huge problem, as Rishi Sunak desperately tried to convince me, I am going to vote for Nigel Farage, not an Asian son of immigrants who doesn't seem able to get on top of the problem.
Why does this blue strip exist? Why isn't there a similar one to the north of the central belt?
Data from https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast, overlay for curiosity.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/31/general-election-2024-latest-starmer-labour-sunak/
Are GB News and the Daily Telegraph trying to cause panic?
The Tories could win just 66 seats in the general election, the first MRP poll of the campaign suggests.
Although I don't know how they could wangle the results of a huge 10,000 sample.
Why isn’t there a similar one to the north of the central belt?
The proximity of a border?
So the blue stain is caused by English incomers?
Possibly "leakage" of family ties across the border, plus living and working across both sides of it?
^^It's probably one of the more reliable and ever diminishing ways left to maintain some semblance of a Tory party after the GE. Invoke fear.
"The socialists are coming, the Socialists are coming!!"